More Than Just The Metals Price To Consider Looking Forward
Doc is back from his trip and shares some comments on the metals. We start off with a quick comment on uranium then quickly move over to gold. We look at some of the stocks and related sectors.
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Here’s an interesting update from a Uranium Producer and Explorer, that has also found Gold in Nevada and is staking ground for exploration.
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Ur-Energy Announces New Gold Project and Initial Sample Results
by @newswire on January 29, 2018
“Jan. 29, 2018 /CNW/ — Ur-Energy Inc. (URG) (URE)is pleased to announce its acquisition of a promising gold exploration project in west-central Nevada. To date, we have staked 102 federal lode mining claims for a property position of approximately 2,100 acres. The Excel Project is located within the Excelsior Mountains, in proximity to the Camp Douglas and Candelaria Mining Districts.”
“The Company became aware of the mineral potential of this project area from exploration data contained within the large geologic database acquired as a part of its 2013 purchase of Pathfinder Mines Corporation. Compiled over several decades of exploration work by major mining companies, the database contains valuable information on hundreds of mineral deposits and historical exploration and development programs in more than 20 states in the U.S. We continue to prioritize the review and analysis of the materials in this database, as it provides abundant opportunity to identify other exploration projects like the Excel Project for acquisition or to monetize through sales of the data.”
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/ur-energy-announces-new-gold-project-and-initial-sample
Data mining the previous hard work of major mining companies, and spinning the projects back out to monetize the info.
There are a number of stories like this where work done in decades past is forgotten about or overlooked, but those that have the data have a leg up on others as to what mineral wealth may be hiding beneath the surface.
Good to hear from Doc.
Welcome back from the cruise…… now get to work reading those charts. 🙂
Most of the general markets are down this morning, yet Gold and Silver are rallying.
Gold back up to $1346.70
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GC=F?p=GC=F
Silver back up to $17.25
US Dollar 88.93
Ex, I will. We should be close to a sell off in the conventionals and that may affect the PMs and stocks initially but I am looking forward to the future for commodities and the PMs. It will be a thing of beauty for those patient enough.
If the 1929 collapse is the model, we will see substantial drops in PMs before the deflationary drop in prices allows for a rise in profits for miners.
CFS – I don’t believe 1929 is the model here. Mining stocks and commodities are way down relative to other asset classes, so even if they initially pull back in the “sell everything” mode, they don’t have nearly as far to fall as the general equities do that have been juiced up for the last 9 years.
During the 2008/2009 crisis the miners and metals fell but that is because they were at much loftier valuations. That isn’t the case this time around.
It is commodities and the precious metals turn to rise, especially if we keep seeing a weaker dollar & higher wages stoking the fires of inflation.
how about the savage beating the miners took yesterday? This is fitting, I suppose, as it was the same day that their Bankers were revealed to be criminally manipulating their prices. Since the CEOs are too stupid to do anything about it, they deserve all pain they feel. BUT YOU DON’T! You should be allowed to profit from owning these damn things and, if anything, yesterday’s smash demonstrates just how early in this rally we are. –Craig Hemke
4 oz:
Do you mean to say that financial markets are manipulated? I’m shocked.
Yes, as you mentioned these are time periods where investors that are following the gold & silver miners should be buying on pullbacks as the 2nd half of 2018 into 2019 should leave these prices behind for good. Cheers!
Real Estate London Style………..Glut………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-30/london-property-market-tumbles-glut-luxury-apartments-grows-3000
Really it has nothing to do with a shortage of supply, it has had everything to do with encouraging speculation.
Speculation has been fuelled by governments encouraging home ownership by UK residents and speculation by foreign investors. All of this was further fuelled by record-low interest rates, zero-rate mortgages, loans from the bank of Mum and Dad, government subsidies and tax breaks. It has all been kindling on an ever-growing fire.
Time to diversify and own the physical property of real gold.
Problem Wages…………
And while this should not come as a surprise – considering we have pointed it out on numerous occasions in the past – one look at the chart below suggests that something strange is taking place in Seattle, which has either become “Vancouver South” when it comes to Chinese hot money laundering, or there is an unprecedented mini housing bubble in the hipster capital of the world.
Sin City has quietly surged in recent months, and in September home prices surged 10.7% Y/Y, the only other double digit price increase in the US after Seattle
Heated Market?……..with 10.7% year over year……
Thanks OOTB. Every time we get ready to move to Seattle I see the properties just go screaming higher and higher.
I printed out that article to show to my sweetie as she gets a little over zealous sometimes in wanting to move out there. I keep saying wait for a correction in housing prices first, but it never seems to come. She likes to remind me we should have just moved a few years ago and rode the property values up. I’ll let her know she was right again 😉
Won’t look good for you Ex.😜Somehow I hear a comment regarding something like “with all the time you spend on investments and we missed out on buying in Seattle ???”😱🤔😂
Increase in real estate price first………increase in real estate taxes next…..then you get a democrat for a mayor…….then you wind up like Baltimore, Chicago, Detroit….
Hunker down in the Smokies and forget………. 🙂
Forget IT………… ,,,I meant to say…..
Best thing to do……..Ask Owl, if he still has any rental property you can use for a month or two…….. 🙂
Wolfster – you’re probably more accurate than you know. I may just have to suck it up and buy a place at the top of the real estate market there. Every time though Chinese buyers come in and bid up entire neighborhoods way over the asking price.
The home pricing there is so divorced from the rest of the country (except San Fran or Vegas).
OOTB – I’m interested in trading in my Smokies for the Snoqualmie Pass.
https://a.travel-assets.com/findyours-php/viewfinder/images/res60/211000/211923-Snoqualmie-Pass.jpg
….. and they have real skiing….. 🙂
http://www.mappery.com/maps/The-Summit-at-Snoqualmie-Summit-Central-Ski-Trail-Map.jpg
… but they do have a volcano that could swallow the city at any moment, so it’s a trade off…. 🙂
https://www.thephotoargus.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/kerry-park3.jpg
However, they do have ocean access, so I can escape the lava by sea if necessary….
We love the Olympic Mountains, all the lakes, and outdoor activities, but it is counterbalanced with amazing food, breweries, wineries, and tea houses.
The cost of living there just sucks though….. OK rant over.
Monthlys are not to bad……only $139,000 month…..or just pay cash $28million
You will need a lot of Jacksons……to live in the Hole……..by Wy not
Funny, Jerry.
Your play on words reminds me of Wyoming’s “That’s WY” campaign:
Wow. I guess WA was not as pricey as I imagined compared to WY.
I guess the 40 acres factors in a little bit, but still……
You can get about 800 sq/ft on 8,000 sq/ft in Jackson for about $800,000. What a deal.
My former place was just out of one of the shots in this video:
Look WYonderful
Looks Wonderful…..
That is some beautiful real estate…………
It is but you have to be ok with the occasional snow in June to live there!
No problem there…..it has been known to snow in May in Indiana…….
For those who miss their mortgage payment,and must live in their car……..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HOoMty_y5PA
THE TALE OF TWO CITIES………… 🙂
+2
BACK ON TOPIC………..PM BULL MKT>>>>>>
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-29/next-big-trend-resumption-precious-metals-bull-market
You have been warned(not by me)…………
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-30/greatest-moments-profit-taking-history-you-were-warned
I heard that Doc was spotted in Davos last week. His cruise must have been on the Rhine.
Welcome home, Doc.
Thanks bb; while I was in Davos I hooked up with Trump and had a little one on one. I encouraged him to tweet less and act more “presidential”. I also gave him some tips on his speech.
Doc,I’ll pay close attention to Trump tonight. His invasion of Korea next spring should goose the gold price up to $2000. Did you ever buy back your Novo or Auryn?
Not yet but will on the next move down in the metals
But Doc, nsrpf has already fallen from 7.10 down to 1.98
How much lower can it go?
Bonzo, there is now a good chance that it has seen its low but more evidence is needed. We will probably have a much better idea by the end of the week.
It has already given back more than 75% of its 2.5 years of gains and, if the sector turns up, it will be harder for it to continue lower.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NVO.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=22&id=p97939804249&a=574544654
BB, nsrpf just broke its’ 200 day SMA. In my experience, when an asset does that it is in no hurry to move right back over it. The stock is in a nice bottoming process here and I’ll just wait to see if I can pick it up just a little bit lower.
With a chart like that and all the other bargains that exist, I think there’s plenty of reason to put off buying even if it has indeed bottomed.
Thanks, Doc and Matthew. I bought some more Novo@2.57 and then watched it plunge to 2.00 the next day. It’s back to 2.70 today. Wish I had waited one more day!
GDXJ looks like it is building out a h&s top. Next comes the right shoulder and then down she goes to $30. You have to assume the worst case scenario with this sector.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10826890601&a=574482409&listNum=1
It is sitting on the 200 day MA right now and, so far, has acted bullishly relative to it when compared with the Sept/Oct action following the Sept. top.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p78354322328&a=574482409
Color me skeptical. I think we head back down to at least test the December low. I’m long and hope I am wrong, but this is ugly, ugly action.
There’s nothing wrong with being skeptical and you have good reason to be based on at least the daily charts.
I wouldn’t say that is a head and shoulders top, but it does look short term bearish.
Still, we are getting near a potential support zone for the miners where they may pop for a day or two. I still believe the metals and miners may just be using this corrective move down to refuel for one more leg higher in February before rolling over for the spring/summer. Gary S. had a few good videos our recently reviewing how he things it’s a bit early in the cycle for the miners to roll over in a meaningful way quite yet.
BM has an article talking about India removing import duty on gold. I believe that decision occurs on Thursday. Maybe metals goes sideways until then and comes a decent pop?
This is the article:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_013018.html
Welcome Back Doc, Do you still think 2018 is the transition year as you have mentioned a few times before in your commentaries? It seems like you are still a little skeptical, and not certain about the big pop this year.
Vinit, I do but the rise going forward will be a slow arduous one at the beginning until the metals really get their mogo going. That doesn’t bother me since I’m now in for the long haul and am really patient. I’ve been around long enough to have seen this happen before to asset classes that have been crushed. When it does happen it often is a 2 step forward, one step back until the narrative suddenly changes which will then cause an explosive mov.e.
Doc,
Are you watching UEC? That stock is on precipitous decline since high this year. Its approaching to my target of $1.15-1.2. Patiently waiting for the gap fill. Hope we get it.
Cali, I am watching and am waiting to purchase my position back. I’ll probably purchase more shares with the profits I made on this last move up.
Doc, you appear to see the PM’s pulling back in the near term and presenting another buying opportunity, what levels of gold and silver do you see the prices puling back to, I have heard 1280 for gold and under 17 for silver? And, what do you think about Evrim Resources, Advantage Lithium, or Tinka Resources?
I own evrim and tinka if that means anything. Lol
Out of those 3 Brent/Joe picks I just have Tinka, but got in before their mob did at a lower price point. It’s had a nice move, but I agree with them that it should have a nice appreciation from here into a takeover/merger for an exit strategy.
Zinc has been ratcheting even higher over the last month, so that helps, but they also have a nice Tin & Silver resource to boot.
`Pardu, I’ve owned Evrim for months. I was fortunate on this one in that I bought shares just about at it’s low prices.
I haven’t clicked on that yet but silver is getting ready to dramatically outperform gold.
SLV just filled last Wednesday’s gap and is up more than 2% versus GLD in the last week or so.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p35289235319
Silver’s outperformance gains significance when it happens as both metals and the miners are falling.
The last three charts and comments in this Jack Chan article are something most people need to see:
Too bad silver miners are getting pummeled. Just can’t catch a break. Lower highs for 18 months now and they were rejected yet again at resistance.
Impact and others have luckily been spared the pummeling of the last few days:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p72001593401
This tells me that the pummeling is probably almost finished for the rest.
If anyone added or bought new positions during tax loss selling then they are still up nicely in most Silver Miners at this point. It all depends on where investors entered the trade.
Here’s a 2 month candleglance Chart of 12 Silver Jrs as a quick reference. The Explorers at the bottom have fared the best actually.
Yup, IPT is still up 41%…
Note the new weekly slow stochastic buy (which is tentative until the week ends):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&yr=3&mn=9&dy=0&id=p54373173223&a=533531451
Based on your snapshot, I’d have to say that IPT looks the best followed by DV.
Let’s see if this breakout sticks:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p57107517068&a=574575498
Nice. IPT is right there at upper fork resistance ready to make it’s move, unless the whole sector gets sucked down into more selling pressure across the board. It looks primed to break out and lead the charge though.
I was nibbling a little bit today in a few PM mining stocks that pulled back harder than IPT, because this pullback may just be the charts/sentiment resetting in the miners for the next leg higher.
Gary Savage mentioned this is too early in the daily cycle for the miners to do an extended selloff, and believes there may be a few more weeks of upside moves in the miners before they roll over.
As you mentioned IPT is a good bellwether for the trend, and it was bullish that it held up so well today along with a few other higher torque Jr miners.
It would be nice to see them lead the pack higher for the second leg of this rally in the metals and miners.
I’ve actually been most impressed with SCZ Santacruz Mining as it moved from $.09 to $.16 for a 77% rise on this recent rally, and as I’ve stated on here a number of times, I believe they have set themselves off for a much better 2018 now that they paid most of their debt down by divesting 3 assets to First Majestic, Americas Silver, and Marlin Gold. Now SCZ is just focusing on bringing their costs down on their 2 producing Silver/Zinc/Lead mines so they should be much peppier as the metal prices rise.
SCZ has done well but it was down today with the rest of the sector while IPT and DV bucked the sector’s bearishness. Also, when I say that something looks good, I am talking from the standpoint of a new buyer, not a proud owner. So I would usually rather buy something that has the right technical setup and has moved up less.
IPT just looks like a better bet right now. You saw my IPT chart above, so here’s the SCZ version. IPT is just at a better place – compare the MACDs, for example.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCZ.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p79551349388
Matthew – Thanks for the SCZ chart. It still looks pretty constructive to me, and it had such a nice move off the bottom because it was way oversold. That MACD can get up there and stay up there in an embedded fashion if there are some teeth to this move up in the PMs.
I do agree that the potential for an upside breakout is much higher with IPT though. SCZ would me more of a continuation but maybe not as high of a percentage move.
I like both, and have a nice allocation to both, and think they both are set up for a nice 2018 where they outperform SIL and SILJ.
IPT is more of the bellwether and outperformer in the Jr Silver miners, and it is the clear pick right now for sure.
On the ceo stock picking contest IPT is in the #6 most popular pick for 2018. For that reason alone, we’ll see the liquidity stay strong in Impact Silver.
I just thought I’d highlight SCZ too as it is lessor followed, and I don’t believe most people realize how they’ve turned their operations around in 2017 for a much better 2018 & 2019.
Here’s that raw data on the most popular picks for the ceo stock picking contest:
On the Safest 2xBagger Contest on ceo.ca IPT is the 4th most picked stock, so it is clearly very widely followed.
Thanks for the lists. Based on the charts, I’d say that IPT is more likely to double before the three that placed above it (TK, VTT, NXE).
Agreed. I do own the other 3 as well though, so I’m happy however it shakes out. 🙂
Pardu, the stocks are selling off a little here and are telling you there is risk in the bullion. Having said that, we may get a little more sell off and then an abortive counter move in late Feb and March. It shouldn’t be much since I believe sideways action to down is still the more likely scenario for the spring and early summer. I’ll be purchasing dips in the stocks again in the near future.
Both gold and silver looking toppy here in the short term. Perhaps the inverse relationship between the US dollar and PMs are being influenced by other outside factors?
They are a lot less toppy on the weekly or especially the monthly charts. At the moment, the dollar’s behavior probably matters the most.
Weekly silver:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=3&dy=0&id=p27804080277
If that 200 week MA takes back the 223 week MA then as setup would be present for the extension of the recent rally would kick into high gear for a second leg higher.
Silver will likely be much higher by the time we see the 200 wma cross above the 233 wma.
Yes, it would need to move for that to happen, but that’s where I’d expect the move to accelerate.
Yeh look Matthew I agree the dollar plays a big part here. Being toppy isnt necessarily a bad thing. Its just a matter of whether the ensuing action after a top is a significant fall or more of a consolidation?
Even though the dollar looks overdue for a bounce, the technical action in it and the miners and metals makes me think that it is still going lower (and gold is still going higher) before it finally does take a break. If that happens, I think gold could easily move to a higher trading range quickly and not come back to the current levels when it pulls back/consolidates. This would leave a lot of wannabe bulls behind and not happy — which would be typical of a bull market.
Great comments here Matthew – and that is the kind of bull market action that would surprise confuse the fence-sitters & bears and the bull would shake off the maximum number of riders on it’s charge higher. (like it does almost every time). 🙂
Despite all the lip service this administration is trying to give for a higher dollar now (when they’ve wanted a weaker dollar since last year), is meaningless to the longer term trend. The dollar may bounce, but it is clearly displaying weakness on the charts, and there isn’t much support below the recent 88 level, so it may pull all the way down to those series of prior peaks and congestion near 84 before and set up a new and much lower trading range. In that partially inflationary environment, the commodities and metals will get more attention from the main stream investing community, and may be the impetus to bring new investing money flows into the sector.
Yup, the buck is going down for a long time regardless of any bounce that might happen soon.
Peter Schiff: It Could be Over for the Dollar
InvestingNews – Jan 29, 2018
“Peter Schiff of Euro Pacific Capital explains why he thinks we’re headed toward the biggest bear market in the dollar’s history.”
It would surprise me somewhat, too, but I am positioned for it.
Yeh maybe if that were to happen, then that strong resistance gold is struggling with just above $1360 could become good support. Mind you with the apparent strong selling pressure around that level seen over the last few years, it will take a dollar cascade through the 88, 87 level for gold to pierce and hold this stubborn resistance I believe.
Yes, that is probably so and I believe it will. The question is when?
It will happen this year I recon otherwise the pms could be stuck in a funk for a while.
Rick Rule: 2018 Could be the Year Uranium Turns
InvestingNews – Jan 24, 2018
“I think this is the year that uranium turns,” says Rick Rule of Sprott US Holdings.
He explains, “the determinate as to whether 2018 is the year that uranium really moves will be made by the pace of Japanese reactor restarts,” but emphasizes that even if the uranium market doesn’t turn around in 2018, it’s “a when market — there’s no doubt it’s going to happen.”
‘There has never been a bigger disconnect between price and value’ – VRIC 2018
22ND JANUARY 2018 (Uranium)
BY: HENRY LAZENBY
“If you’re on the fence on getting into uranium… Do you want it for free? The value proposition is so compelling for uranium, it is bound to return in the future. It requires some homework on the investor’s part, but once you do your homework, you’ll realise that you are buying future value for a song,” US uranium miner Uranium Energy Corp president and CEO Amir Adnani told a panel.
“We can sit here and beat up about utilities not contracting. The fact remains, they have always acted counter intuitively, thinking uranium prices will remain so low for long. As Rick Rule says it best: ‘It’s not a matter of if, but when’,” noted Fission Uranium president and CEO Dev Randhawa.”
Uranium veteran expects price stalemate to crack in 2019
Yashaswini Swamynathan – January 22, 2018
Mike Alkin: The US Energy Security Situation is Perilous
InvestingNews – Jan 23, 2018
“The Stock Catalyst Report’s Mike Alkin comments on uranium demand and the climate for nuclear power in the US under the Trump administration. ”
(DNN) (DML) Denison Announces 88% Increase in Indicated Resources at Wheeler River With Updated Mineral Resource Estimate for the Gryphon Deposit
@marketwired on January 31, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/denison-announces-88-increase-in-indicated-resources-cc6ec
(ORX) (ORFDF) Orefinders introduces its Cobalt-Silver assets in the Cobalt/Gowganda District – Looks to Spin off pure play Battery Metals Public Company
Jan. 30, 2018 /CNW/
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/orefinders-introduces-its-cobalt-silver-assets-in-the