Recapping the Jobs Numbers, Tax Bill, and What Happened To Infrastructure Spending?
Chris Temple and I provide a quick recap of the jobs number that was released this morning. At first glance people could have viewed these numbers as negative however looking at the prior months revisions it’s just another neutral number. As for the tax bill that was introduced yesterday we are still skeptical anything substantial will be passed. The final point we discuss is the most important… Whatever happened to infrastructure spending?
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Where are these people working………….not
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-11-03/people-not-labor-force-soar-record-954-million-968000-drop-out-one-month
Oil has broken the 52 week high.
It doesn’t matter what the Fed does as long as the BoJ and ECB remain dramatically looser in comparison. yen carry trade alone is enough to send stocks to Uranus. It’s a virtuous circle now. No one seems to care how much the BoJ or ECB print, or that they are buying billions in ETFs and corporate debt. Nothing matters. The central bankers can do whatever the hell they want at this point. We won’t get a repeat of 2008 in our lifetimes. Maybe at Dow 25,000 they will tolerate a 5-10% correction. And as long as the yen is under pressure, so will commodities. It’s beautiful. Infinite wealth for anyone smart enough to just BTFD!
BTFD, as in, buy the F’ing dip? Ha (good one)
The CBs aren’t printing like most think Spanky. The central banks are saving the pension funds when the stock downturn comes. The banks that were holding the bonds won’t be able to pay the cupon of those bonds to the bond holders. That’s why the CBs have to step in.
Seems like Chris and Cory would learn to take Trump at his word. The infrastructure spending is coming, but some things have to be handled before those funds get triggered.
The ECB owns most of the corporate debt in Europe. That is wildly distortive, but what the hell do I know. Nothing can stop the equity markets now. Nothing.
Nothing?
Something?
Apparently spanky has divined that “Nothing can stop the equity markets now.” 😮
You’re right, they do hold most of the corporate debt. But that’s pension paper. The pension paper is real debt ( not a derivative )
I am not holding the large company high dividend stocks that I normally hold as the market is too overpriced. Each time they give you a large dividend it gets deducted from the opening price and starts a downturn quite often. They take it out of your left pocket and put it into your right pocket so it is just a capital repayment and not real income. I will just trade an oil Etf with a high probability of gains each time and with plenty of cash to spare to average out on a big drop and take profits.
Paul L. You seem to do well trading Oil stocks and Oil ETFs. What is your outlook on spot oil going into next year?
Would you expect XOP to outperform XLE on a percentage basis?
How do you feel about Oil Services like in OIH compared to the producers and explorers?
I would expect oil to trade in the 60’s. I think the Saudis have to get the oil price up much higher so there is interest in their big IPO coming up in 2018. XOP is much more volatile than XLE and has a much higher % upside since these are smaller companies. XOP was trading at $80 in 2014 and went down into the 20’s. It has been under performing the oil price for quite some time. If you look at BP. It has outperformed and reached over $40. XOP has sometimes traded at the same or higher price. I managed to buy back 3100 shares on the dip yesterday to 34.51 and was waiting for a dip to the 200 day and to close a gap left from 34.28 to 34.70 or so but it turned up about 35 cents higher.
I don’t follow the OIH etf but that should do well to once oil goes higher.
Paul L. Thanks for the targets and outlook on Oil and XOP. Yes, I was thinking XOP would outperform XLE due to the concentration of Jr Oil companies (like GDXJ over GDX in Gold). As for OIH, things were just so destroyed with pipelines, drilling, and service oriented companies that it seemed like an interesting place to be. I guess of the 3 XLE, XOP, and OIH the best bang for the buck will likely be XOP.
Much appreciated.
XLE looks fully valued compared to the oil price while XOP is lagging far behind. It needs to be $4 to $5 higher to catch up.
Being a novice at charts, perhaps I shouldn’t even post on the subject. But, I see no distribution in volume totals of Dow or other conventional markets. Looks to me like it continues on………………………..until it doesn’t. FWIW. One day though, the pain will be greater than most can bear. That’s when the PMs are going to shine!
Silverdollar – I’m looking forward to the day PMs shine, but don’t mind the gains in the conventional markets as my retirement account has grown faster than ever expected. In the 2008/2009 Financial crisis I dumped in a bunch of funds thinking over time things would recover and it was a good place to add. It is unlikely anyone expected the run up to be this extreme or last this long unimpeded.
We live in unprecedented times!
Havnt paid any attention to the markets this week until now. Surprise surprise the metals stumble… yet again! And bitcoin goes on yet another tear… Not inconceivable to see it touch $10,000 before years end. Who woulda thought in January???
Yes sir. 2017 has been full of surprises in Cryptos and Base Metals & Energy Metals, but mild disappointments in Precious Metals & Miners. However, it hasn’t been dire in Gold/Silver/Miners, just not as peppy as expected. Looks like the market will need to regroup towards year end for the next chapter of the story to unfold in Q1 2018.
Repost……….
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-coming-to-rofex-argentinas-largest-futures-market/