Comments on Central Bank Meetings and US Data
First we want to wish everyone a safe and happy Halloween! With a busy week ahead of us in terms of central bank meetings (ECB, BoJ, and the Fed) and potential political news out of the US I have Marc Chandler on the show for his comments. The focus should be on the longer term implications and if there are any policy shifts. We are not expecting any but you never know…
Click here to visit Marc’s website for more great daily commentary.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Maybe you missed the election news…. Abe won. No big changes to Japan monetary policy.
Japan’s Shinzo Abe hails landslide victory in snap election
By Yoko Wakatsuki, James Griffiths and Joshua Berlinger, CNN
Updated 9:21 AM ET, Mon October 23, 2017
http://www.cnn.com/2017/10/22/asia/japan-election-results/index.html
This is also very good news for the nuclear sector for the next few years as he understands the importance of restarting those reactors, and reducing the dependence on coal and importing oil/gas.
AXU daily stochastic pegged at 0-1 for several days now. The 5 day RSI is lower than its been in years. That is some bullish action right there. In a bull market you buy oversold conditions, so have at it. We haven’t seen action this bullish in AXU in years.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p87252345637&a=553884664&listNum=1
Spankmeister:
Like I posted yesterday the JGB10Y hasn’t moved in 11 sessions. How far will the JCB go to defend this position? The JCB said they were going to keep the rate pegged at zero.If the yen is going lower wouldn’t you expect the 10Y to go in the opposite direction?
JohnK, I am basing my yen prediction on the $usdjpy weekly and monthly charts. It looks like it is stuck in a huge bullish pennant to me. This is not a topping pattern. It’s a continuation pattern. That is bad bad news for metals and miners.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p82850818552&a=553889701&listNum=1
Spanky, we already agreed that AXU was in a medium-term downward correction a last week, but the indicators on your chart today (like the Full Stochastics turning and the extreme oversold conditions) are signalling a short-term turn is in order. (The shares are up about 3% today for example). You seem to believe that when things get down massively oversold. that this is where they’ll stay. (?) Look for the crosses and oversold conditions to indicate where the turns will come, even if they are just shorter term blips up.
The miners are pulling back into Dec on FOMC concerns and fueled by some tax loss selling, but there will also be money coming in off the sidelines for tax loss “buying” later in the year. This should underpin things post-FOMC and towards year end.
Like I mentioned the last 10 times you brought it up, I’ll be waiting for the pullback in many of these Jr miners over the next 2 months, and if there is a big swoon into early Dec in anticipation of the rate hikes, I’ll buy the blazes out of it.
In 2 months, when it turns up and rallies day after day, we’ll make sure keep you updated on it…..regularly……
Also, if we do get a brief upturn in the markets, I may lighten up on a few of the more liquid names, but am mostly holding steady. However if we a relief rally for a few days, then I’ll initiate a short in DUST near the top of that as a hedge for more downward pressure into mid Dec.
I really do find this hilarious. You are selling/hedging after some of these names are down 80%+. that’s some real Jesse Livermoresque speculating right there.
Lowering cost basis, even 5% or 10% is better than a sharp stick in the eye, or impotent grinching for that matter.
I know it’s crazy and newfangled, but some people are actually operating on more than one timescale at the same time 😮
Exactly right GH.
Spanky fails to realize that many traders even hedge for the day or just a trade, and makes the assumption that everyone bought at the top last summer and held all the way down.
Spanky only a clueless trader, that had terrible chart reading skills and timing, would have bought at the peak last summer and rode it all the way down. (based on your comments below in this blog, then maybe that is actually what you did, but it would be highly unlikely most investors did that worst case scenario).
Livermore fanatics would get chewed up and spit out in the mining sector or commodities for the last 7 years because they are far more erratic and volatile than the general stock markets he invested in. Remember, Jessie invested in the big name juggernaut stocks in the general indexes, that move much more slow and steady upwards over time. [he would have LOVED this most recent rally in the general stock markets, and buying right and sitting tight in the DOW or S&P 500 or Russell 2000 would have been the right strategy for sure]. That is EXACTLY what I did in my retirement account in the general stock markets and it is has been the correct strategy there. I added big in mutual funds, variable annuities, bonds in 2008/2009 and have sat tight all this time, and get the concept.
However, what Livermore groupies fail to understand is that his sitting tight doesn’t apply well to explosive moves up or down in Jr exploration stocks, or volatile small producers. Sure it works well for big juggernauts like Franco Nevada, but it is an entirely different kind of trading that should be applied to these penny stocks.
> How do you think PM investors that bought in 2011/2012 did by sitting tight (even if they will be right in the Looong term)?
– Clearly they bought wrong and shouldn’t have held tight all the way down. It is not any different if traders bought wrong last summer and have held tight all the way down to the present environment.
– If you did that Spanky, then you don’t understand what Livermore was talking about.
>> How do you think Uranium mining investors would have done if they had just bought any time in the last 7 years and just “held tight” like an “Old Turkey”?
– They’d have been devastated and blown up their account, even though they’ll also likely be right over a huge period of time. Yeah – great strategy!
These miners need to be traded; not held [when in protracted downward moves]:
1) One strategy is to watch the charts and position near turns for counter-trend rallies and then sell when they’ve done most of their run. This allows for short-duration scalps and helps raise dry powder to deploy later or into other sectors.
2) The other strategy is to simply trim back a part of a position (25-50%) during very overbought rallies upwards, and then if the stock or sector dives back down then re-position at a lower cost basis.
Either technique works. Sitting like a lame duck in the water when you “bought wrong” is nothing like Livermore anyway. Every example you use Spanky are examples of how to “buy wrong” so what is hilarious is that you evoke his name and can’t even get the first part of the equation correct. You are supposed to “buy right”.
Now when a larger bullish impulse leg up starts, then one should already be positioned by “buying right”, and then you can “sit tight” like an Old Turkey. ONLY in that scenario does what Livermore discussed apply to the commodities or miners.
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As we’ve discussed countless blogs, the best practice is fading in and out of positions so my stocks are NOT down 80%, and and most of them are still way in the green or at a zero cost basis. (with a few exceptions that were stinkers or dropped a bit after I added to them)
>>> Now if you want to wax Livermoresque:
The time to buy was the tail end of Dec 2015 – Jan/Feb 2016. That is when I did the largest chunk of my buying in the Silver miners, and ALL those positions are still way up from where I entered. I was VERY vocal about holding my nose and buying in Tax Loss selling 2015 and in particular in Jan & Feb 2016. Buying right was the easy part.
In addition, I was very vocal last summer in July/August about trimming the winnings and taking chips off the table (not adding there). For people that “Sat Tight” they are still up nicely if they bought right, but by trading into the overbought rally, and taking big chunks off the table, I skipped most of the pain the rest of the year, except in the core positions I held that pulled back.
Lastly, I “bought right” last tax loss selling season in late Nov-Dec and then trimmed in Feb/Mar after the 2017 Q1 run (which was far more profitable than many seem to remember – because they missed that trade too). Again, an investor could have just bought and held, but their gains would have been erased. It was FAR BETTER to have pulled profits last Feb/Mar and got out of the way in a number of stocks.
Look at Uranium miners again. Smart investors bought last tax loss selling in Nov/Dec and then trimmed in Jan/Feb on that monster rally. Livermore fans would have just held tight and watched all those gains evaporate. It doesn’t translate well into miners. They are too much of a rollercoast, and have cyclical and seasonal patterns that should be traded.
More recently, the next larger wave of purchases I made this year was right near the end of the GDXJ rebalance in July through mid August. Most of those were still good trades and I caught nice September rallies, but I expected it to continue into October. As a result I only did mild trimming on the way up but let them ride thinking we’d get one more thrust higher, which didn’t come. (I messed up by holding tight this time, but will be bailed out in 2018 on any that pulled back below my cost basis).
With all of that in context, then consider what I said above in the prior message and you may learn a thing or two.
” if we do get a brief upturn in the markets, I may lighten up on a few of the more liquid names, but am mostly holding steady. However if we a relief rally for a few days, then I’ll initiate a short in DUST near the top of that as a hedge for more downward pressure into mid Dec.”
– I’m holding steady from this July/Aug a few months ago (not from last year).
– If there is a rally I’ll only lighten up (not sell out completely) on the more liquid names [where you can get in and out without moving the share price around too much]
– At the top of the rally, I may put on a DUST or JDST position as a hedge against all the mining positions in my portfolio into any potential dip into Dec.
If you don’t understand how that strategy would be lightlyears better than yours of buying at the top last summer, and then whining ever day for the last 15 months as your shares sunk in value by “holding tight” to losing trades, then you don’t have any business being in mining shares, and don’t have a clue about Jessie Livermore.
Absolutely not. Of course it can and probably will bounce. But when things get this oversold, it almost guarantees lower lows down the line. Again, bull markets don’t behave like this. They barely get oversold and when then do, they reverse extremely quickly. nothing goes down in a straight line.
spanky, the point was the chart you used to mock the bullishness, actually looks short-term bullish. Since the only purpose you could have for posting these charts every day is to look at the short term future, then is ironic that you actually post a chart that looks destined to pop for brief relief rally.
Yes, as stated above we already mentioned the medium term the metals complex and miners were heading down into December, and then longer term they’ll be turning up to continue the next leg of the Bull market in 2018 will continue like this for a few years.
Ex, Spanky is clueless and shows off his TA knowledge voids everyday. The same goes for JohnK.
All hail to the great technician Mathew.
Here’s a chart for you. Remember I said I would be buying after three closes above .37?
How much do you think I have bought?
So much wasted time on the precious metals.The last time I checked this was the Korelin ECONOMICS report,not the Gold and Silver review.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V
Wait, johnk has the gall to see a higher high before buying a stock that has plummeted 9 or 10 months in a row? Wow, what an idiot. Total amateur.
spanky – waiting for a higher high will confirm the next upleg, and is “safer”, but many of the rebound gains will be missed by not buying then things are cheap, and selling when they are dear. Waiting for a higher high means missing a big part of the move up.
To each their own, as there are different risk appetites for sure, but risk/reward ratio pays accordingly.
Shad:
The point that you are missing is that there is an associated risk in holding penny stocks waiting for the rebound.
In the event that there is a major “event” and you wake up one morning and the markets are massively down,you are going to pay a price. No exceptions.
Another salient point that many are missing are the massive inflows of Capital into the Crypto and Blockchain space.
This is taking a toll on the precious metals and I would not expect a change anytime soon.
Like I said, clueless.
JohnK – Yes, holding any stock represents risks to the downside, or opportunity for upside. With the penny Jrs those moves are more exaggerated, and it is not uncommon for a stock to rise or fall 10-30% in a day.
Most seasoned investors that have gone through different cycles realize this risk already and are in the Jr miners specifically because of the large risk/reward ratio.
The point I was making above, is that once a stock is really oversold on a number of indicators, (like the RSI and MACD was, and full stochastics are crossing to head back up, just like the RSI is is moving from oversold and turning up), then that indicates a rally is overdue and the risk is minimal.
Let me help illustrate the point I was making about the chart spanky posted earlier this morning, marking a turn and indicating a rally:
__________________________________________________________________________
Alexco Resource Corp. (AXU)
$1.23 up +$0.12 (+10.81% gain)
At close: 3:59PM EDT
in addition to that:
$1.26 up +$0.02 (1.61% gain)
After hours: 4:01PM EDT
AXU up a total of 12.42% today
* [I’d call that a nice pop, and it is more than most mutual funds will make all year]
___________________________________________________________________________
In contrast, when a rally is really overbought and the RSI or Stochastics are at nosebleed levels, then it the upside is limited and the downside risk is more worrisome. Clearly the best strategy is to take chips off the table on extreme rallies, and when the downside risk is highest, and add to positions during extreme overbought conditions when the downside risk is greatly minimized.
Big deal, it gets a 1 day pop after being down nearly 50% in a month. Shocking. I’m sure you bought some at $1.10 and sold at the high today.
You miss the point again Einstein. You were the one that got on here today to mock how “bullish” the chart was for AXU, and ended up posting a very bullish looking chart for the short term.
If you can’t see that then you need chart school, and based on your comments it was pretty clear you didn’t even know what you were looking at on the very charts you posted. They were short term bullish as I pointed out to you this morning. The stock rallied 12% after that. Pretty simple concept.
If you knew how to read indicators and overbought positions, then you’d know how to spot turns and anticipate overbought/oversold areas when things may turn (if only for the short term).
That is the whole point of looking at charts every day and posting about them. If you’re just going to hang on to losing positions for years and not take evasive action, then what the hell is the point in looking at charts every day? That’s ridiculous bordering on nuts.
I’ve swing traded dozens of mining companies this year in Uranium, Lithium, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Copper, etc… They don’t all have to be in an artificial bull market like the general stock indexes to make money. You buy the dips and sell the rips and can trade any market from Oil to Biotech the exact same way.
That’s why people trade. If you are just going to set it and forget it, then buy, and don’t check on the stocks again for 5-10 years (and it doesn’t require charts or commentary).
It’s not bullish for the long term. Period. You know what I meant. Yes, only a moron would short it as oversold as it was. So what? it’s going lower.
Wrong. It was bullish for the short term, and since you post the same charts day after day, then there is NO REASON to keep posting them repetitively if you are not focused on the short term.
Medium term, we’ve beat this topic to death, and yes there is likely more to the correction. We hashed that out 2 weeks ago almost every day, and last week almost every day.
Longer term, the metals and miners are still in a bullish set up (not a bearish one). We reviewed the reasons why about 50 times, but the bear market in metals concluded in Dec of 2015, and the miners in Jan 2016. They haven’t even gotten close to making a new low in 2 years, and yet Gold had stunning impulse leg up last year taking out numerous resistance levels (nullifying the possibility that it was sucker’s rally).
If all you care about is the longer term, then wait a longer time before posting more trash-talking charts. Capiche?
Again, Spanky’s clueless. He doesn’t know that he doesn’t know. The big picture IS bullish.
Oh, come on Excelsior!
Who doesn’t enjoy having the same argument every day about monthly charts?
Like I’ve said to you before Matthew, when? Tomorrow? 1 month? 3 months? 6 months? And then once we bottom, when will the 2016 highs be left behind for good? You keep pointing to the XAU, problem is I am in silver stocks that have gotten the $hit kicked out of them. I have patiently sat on these turds for over 2 years now. lol. And am literally back to square 1, wondering if I will actually go in the red after all this time of patiently waiting like an idiot and a dreamer. I understand some bull markets can zig zag for years in massive ranges, but I just didn’t want to believe that would be the case with these damn miners. Hell, a 30, 40 or even 50% retrace, fine. But 60, 70, 80% retraces? Over 14 or 15 months with no end in sight? Yeah, it’s hard to be a bull.
I have some idea based on G Savages cycles on timing (maybe a low in December?). But frankly its so damn easy to predict the absolute worst case scenario in this f’ing sector. and then to look at the conventional market… Yeah, what a bust!!!
GH – Haha! That made me chuckle. Goodness Grief already!
Spanky – yes, it is hard to be a bull when things are gloomy, but those are the times to be a buyer. When it seems most hopeless and when it looks like there is no end in sight, and most people want to leave the sector; then that is when it is a great time to add.
The caveat being if a company is literally going out of business or has a fatal flaw that is taking them down. It would sure be a surprise to a lot of investors if Gold & Silver were going down for the count.
The PMs are doing just fine, and that is why longer term that EXK, AG, IPT, AXU, etc.. are going to be just fine. They are sound businesses and when the metals prices do rise, they’ll appreciate in a leveraged manner to the upside, just like they do to the downside.
CME Group announces Bitcoin Futures Contracts.
https://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/bitcoin-price-soars-to-all-time-high-after-cme-group-announces-bitcoin-futures-contracts/
Clueless I tell ya.
And I will even go one step further about the illusion that you will some how miss out when the sector turns.This is pure crap!
You may miss a couple of pennies,as long as you catch the trend you will be just fine.
GET READY to GET SCREWED……if CME is connected………..
Jerry:
CME can only contol the contracts.
The Bitcoin miners control the Bitcoin.
I think Christmas is coming early.
That might be a problem….if ,CME has any chance to screw things up they sure will do it ..jmo.
CME….is the system…
Jerry:
What you don’t understand is the beauty of Bitcoin.
There are only so many that will be created.
As each new Bitcoin is created,it becomes “harder” to create the next one.
There is no way to misinform or lie to the investors because everything is known.
That is the BEAUTY OF BITCOIN.
Keep it up Jerry and I’m going to put you aboard the Apatosaurus in the next Dinosaur Parade.
🙂
I’m thinking I would like to ride the TRex,
Jerry:
T-Rex isn’t allowed because he keeps eating the other Dinosaurs.The Dino Parade is only for the veggie eaters.
Who knows ,maybe T-Rex will show up in the Chaos Parade scheduled for 2018 when the Central Banks try discontinue Monetary Easing.
After Pedogate, pizzagate, …..maybe Trexogate……. 🙂
BTW……..Bix says load up on cryptos……really…he has a great comment today…
Hi Ho,Hi Ho. It’s off to Bix I go.
Jerry:
You have to be real careful when your listening to people about John Podesta.
Down the rabbit hole I read that John Podesta was trying to get to the bottom of the UFO/Alien controversy from the deep state.
I really don’t know who to believe yet. All I’m saying is keep an open mind.
Questionable character , when you are running with Hilly and Billy crowd………birds of feather flock together……Guilt by association, I am thinking ….maybe too much….
Keep an open mind , until you have enough clues ………. 🙂
The Canadian dollar should get a good bounce very soon…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p11585621737&a=477198301
$USDJPY inverted H&S projects to 140.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90978435761&a=553891488&listNum=1
So GDX, which staged an incredibly powerful rally after a brutal 5/6 year bear, took out its 200 week moving average and consolidated on top of it while it turns upward, is not a continuation, but prelim to a Waterfall(!!!).
Yet the $USDJPY, which staged a powerful 4 year bull run, and has now settled down on top of a 200 week moving average that is flattening, with price action as you say, in a pennant pattern, is a surefire continuation pattern.
Could be a continuation, but I don’t see much to base the opinion on. I think you’ve probably got both GDX and this ratio backwards.
I don’t have a magic trick to know which way a break will go out of pennants. But considering the above, with the stochastics getting overbought and the ratio up near the top rail of the pennant, the most likely next move on the weekly chart is to short this ratio. Assuming it heads back to the lower rail, that would be the time to reassess. Might be worth thinking about a spread trade.
My guess is it ultimately breaks down. Maybe I’m simpleminded, but I think the US would far rather pay off its debts with a depreciating currency. The long-term technical picture for the US dollar is also very bearish.
If this ratio does rise from here, my guess is it would be because the yen really falls out of bed relative to all the other major currencies. Is this likely? I don’t know, but would guess not.
You’ve made some terrible guesses. Like commodities bottoming vs stocks in 2016. Great call.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3AGCC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22764834829&a=553987143&listNum=1
Trough to peak (so far) that’s a 50% rally!
Yes, I did get that wrong.
Remind me. Did I do a Spanky and say it was 100% certain? Did I harangue people about it daily?
It was A low, potentially, THE low. As is the current one.
Identifying such a key inflection point is worth taking a few swings and misses. If one doesn’t know how to do that without getting hurt, that’s their problem. Learning with small $ is wise.
+1
I said over 6 months ago that the miners would tag their lower monthly bollinger bands before they tagged their upper bands. Looks like I will be right. For EXK, we are talking 1.80. For AXU we are talking .94. I imagine we are going lower than that, because that’s what the miners always do. They will bend those lower bands downwards for a month or two before finally putting in some sort of bounce. Whether that is the final low or just a temporary low will be anyone’s guess. Based on the monthly Ichimoku for silver stocks like EXK, I don’t really expect much upward movement maybe as late as March ’18. IPT.V will do the same thing.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EXK&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p11384486018&a=553902148&listNum=1
Spankmeister:
Regardless what your charts tell you,the market we have now have been predicated on President Trump’s tax plan going through.
We will soon find out how much of this has been priced in.
As long as the tax plan keeps moving forward, I would not expect to see any movement in the mining stocks.
I still say keep an eye on Japan.Construction orders and housing starts for September are weak. I may be jaded,but I can remember when you could buy a 80,000 condo in AK for 12,000 when the Japanese economy imploded. The BOJ doesn’t provide much commentary and most people never see it coming.
Alexco Resource Corp. (AXU)
$1.23 up +$0.12 (+10.81% gain)
At close: 3:59PM EDT
in addition to that:
$1.26 up +$0.02 (1.61% gain)
After hours: 4:01PM EDT
>> AXU up a total of 12.42% today – that was my point about the chart you posted earlier where you mocked how bullish AXU was, indicating a reversal of direction
* [I’d call that a nice pop, and 12.41% gain in one day is more than most mutual funds will make all year]
** Of course you’d have to buy at the lows instead of cry at the lows….
Yes there may be a lower price and dip into December but scalping small rallies can allow investors to ride out the rough patches, because the overall longer term trend is still tilted bullish. Again, if Gold takes out $1045.40, then I’ll position for Bear market rules.
why would you scalp something that is in freefall? talk about gambling…
I agree at least with matthew on this. Put your money where you mouth is if you are legitimately bullish and buy the dips. Are you waiting for it to be down 60%? 80%? 90%?
Spanky. Every investment is a speculation, and it makes no difference if happens over 1 hour or over 1 decade. The only job we have is to decide when to hit “buy” and when to hit “sell”. You buy when you think it’s less risky (at oversold lows where the chart indicators show a turn is due) and sell when things are overbought (when the indicators show something is overbought and due for a correction down).
If someone buys as stock and holds if for a day to make 12%, or if that person holds it for a year and makes 12% then the only variable was time. The technical setup just needs to be condensed. Why not make it in a short time frame?
The other fallacy is the thinking that one most go “all in” on a trade which is usually a terrible idea for active traders. You fade into a position and out of a position buy adding or selling to reduce your overall cost basis.
So, one may add 25% of 33% to a position on an extreme sell off, and when the stock rallies sell it right back to lock in the gain, all the while holding onto the core position.
Also, if a stock gets really oversold, one may trim back 25% or 33% of a position, wait for the correction to be over, and then buy that position right back at a lower cost basis, and deploy the funds left over elsewhere.
It takes conviction to read charts and spot the turns. That’s why people use charts. In contrast, charts aren’t for beating people over the head daily to expose on a narrative, but maybe that point escapes you.
If you aren’t going to buy the dips and sell the rips, and just sit there for years no matter what happens, then spare us all from the daily commentary.
______________________________________________________________
As a refresher, you were the one that got on here today to mock how “bullish” the chart was for AXU, and ended up posting a very bullish looking chart for the short term.
If you can’t see that then you need chart school, and based on your comments it was pretty clear you didn’t even know what you were looking at on the very charts you posted. They were short term bullish as I pointed out to you this morning. The stock rallied 12% after that. Pretty simple concept.
If you knew how to read indicators and overbought positions, then you’d know how to spot turns and anticipate overbought/oversold areas when things may turn (if only for the short term).
That is the whole point of looking at charts every day and posting about them. If you’re just going to hang on to losing positions for years and not take evasive action, then what the hell is the point in looking at charts every day? That’s ridiculous bordering on nuts.
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I’ve swing traded dozens of mining companies this year in Uranium, Lithium, Gold, Silver, Zinc, Copper, etc… They don’t all have to be in an artificial bull market like the general stock indexes to make money. You buy the dips and sell the rips and can trade any market from Oil to Biotech the exact same way.
That’s why people trade. If you are just going to set it and forget it, then buy, and don’t check on the stocks again for 5-10 years (and it doesn’t require charts or commentary).
However, if you are sitting on losing positions for years (like the poor souls that bought commodities stocks in 2011 and just sat on their hands all this time), then obviously being an Old Turkey isn’t always the best strategy. (especially w/ miners)
Buying and holding may work for blue chip stocks on the general indexes, but it is financial suicide to do that with the vast majority of micro cap or nano cap companies in the Junior mining space. This is a whole different animal and is many times more volatile than investing in banking stocks or consumer retailers.
Mining stocks are a roller coaster and most seasoned investors know the risks getting into the sector in the first place. That is why they come, for the volatility and opportunity for out-sized opportunities.
There have been numerous short and medium term duration rallies and corrections in almost all sectors or stocks that can be traded. Silver stocks included. I’ve personally put my money where my mouth is for years, and have swing traded dozens of stocks this year, some over and over again.
Are you still sitting on losing trades in EXK and AG for years without taking evasive action? If so why don’t you put those amazing chart skills to work and sell on a rally.
If you have so much conviction that we are in a brutal bear market for the longer term, and are still long, and not shorting the snot out of the markets then you have a total lack of conviction and comments add little to no value. If you haven’t put a monster short position on the mining stocks over the last year then it is you that has not put your money where your whining mouth is.
Most of the outsized damage inflicted in EXK and AG have been over about a handful of days (massive 1-2 day drops a few times). At this point, we are so close to the lower bollinger band on the monthly charts, that a bottom could in theory come at any time, but for sure there is at least 10% more downside (EXK is going to go sub $2.00, maybe sub 1.80).
I am riding the slope of hope at this point. 15 f’ing months of straight down. Literally, this has been a very significant bear market in many of the silver miners. I reckon the drop from 2016 peak to current price on many silver miners is between 50-80%, rivaling any of the downlegs of the past bears, easily. I went with silver miners over gold miners thinking they would outperform. lol. Boy was I right, problem is it has been to the downside over a 15 month(!!!) period! 15 hellacious months, and it isn’t over. Bull market? yeah ok, I guess. Like I said, they could rebound massively from here, but I think they will be basing for *years*. The 2016 highs won’t be seen until 2019 at the earliest IMO, maybe even 2020.
Up to a lower high from here (I am guessing between now and March they will bottom and then rally for most of the year), then down to a higher low into 2019 before making a run for the 2016 highs finally.
BTW I have been long basically from the October peak in 2015. Little did I think that some of these silver stocks would basically retrace the entire move (unless your timing was literally perfect). Then to watch the US stock market rip higher, day after day after day, knowing full well exactly why and instead sticking to this god forsaken POS sector, well, yeah…
You’re well up on your positions if you got in at the Oct 2015 highs, are you not?
AXU more than a double…AG nearly 75%…GDX up ~1/3…SIL ~40%
And you’re negative about this?
Am I missing something, or did some some deranged-seeming behavior just get weirder?
Spanky how could you have gotten positioned in during October of 2015 and not be doing OK. Did you trim anything back on rally in summer of 2016? It just doesn’t make sense, that isn’t 15 months. 15 months would have positioned you at the peak last summer and that would have been the ultimate worst time to buy.
Anyways, once this corrective move is over we’ll know if the bull is going to continue or if all the last 2 years was a failed pattern. I’ve bet big that 2018,2019 are going to be very bullish, and am not really that concerned about the current move down, although, it is disappointing of course.
I shifted significant sums into EXK and AG unfortunately when they started on the way down. I also added to my AXU position well over .60.
So you made some bad trades, and now we all get to hear your bellaching?
Plenty suffered worse than you are suffering now in the bear market.
Agreed GH.
Spanky the moral of the story is that you didn’t “buy right” you “bought wrong.” It happens.
However, if a trade moves against you like that and you have decent technical skill then you sell and get out of the way to limit the loss. You don’t “sit tight” in a corrective leg down.
Fading in and out of positions would have also allowed you to lower your cost basis, and trade into a few rallies along the way like the Q1 run to recoup losses, but if you just sit tight in the Jr miners, you’ll get run over and be roadkill (until the market is a roaring Bull market…. then you can sit tight).
Spanky’s problem is that he blames the sector rather than his actions. He is destined for failure if he doesn’t identify the real POS.
late 90’s $sugar monthly chart looks almost exactly like silver miners do today. So many things line up, including MAs. I think the silver miners will be under pressure until March/April ’18, before they make a run upwards to the tail of the cloud by early 2019.
Spankmeister:
Comparing old charts to new ones is another measure of efficacy that provides us with nothing but useless information.
It is useful, if it is well done.
I have a hard time seeing a significant similarity in this case.
Let’s compare the weekly charts, so everyone can see it and we can get more detail, since SIL doesn’t have a long history.
Sugar
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SUGAR&p=W&st=1995-01-01&en=2005-01-01&id=p06114371427
Silver miners
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p03288153807
I assume the comparison is the steep rise in 1999 that took out the 200 week MA in sugar, with the recent rise in SIL, with the implication being that SIL will do a comparable retrace, eliminating all gains since the Jan 2016 low.
But they’re not comparable.
Look how sugar steadily made lower highs and lows, breaking below the 200 MA on it’s second leg down. Compare that to the action since mid-2016 in SIL, as it has stubbornly stayed on top of the 200 MA.
Or look at the major prior peak in sugar, from ’97, that was not exceeded by the 1999 upleg–bearish. Versus SIL. which took out multiple prior peaks–bullish.
In sugar, if you count from the beginning of the spike in 2000, the round trip up and down took ~28 months, and it was left-translated. Sil is already 21 months out from it’s low, and is still about 130% above the low.
Why waste our time?
r.e. ‘left translated’, SIL would be too, if it went back down to it’s lows again. But my point is that in sugar much of the gains were given up quickly, very unlike SIL.
Specifically, what I find useful in comparisons is helping to identify likely scenarios and indicators for them.
G.H:
Stocks go up by the availability of buyers on a daily basis. No buyers and your going down.
Pretty simple really.
Eureka!!!
Setting up perfectly.
Pagan Holiday………..Trick or Treat…….LOL
$USDJPY is going to retest its 2015 high, at a minimum. Whether the inverted H&S plays out is a guess. But if USDJPY starts to launch, expect an incredible rise in the US stock market. $indu:$gold = 21 before any bounce for gold.
If the corporations can get the 2.5 trillion held overseas back to the U.S,I would say that is a pretty fore gone conclusion.
IPT.V wow, if the weekly stochastics embed oversold again. Hell, if they even dip back into oversold… Maybe they can embed oversold for another 8 or 9 months. Worse technically than 2008…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p37627862586&a=553955536&listNum=1
I may actually buy a few shares when it hits .25, although I think it can go much lower in an extreme panic. I also think its vulnerable until March/April.
hmmm back to 11?
I got into v.hive for my crypto play. Still feel clueless regarding most of the sector
with hive i feel i got a pce of the action.
i dont see much downside to it.
Tommy over at ceo has HIVE as a sponsor and has been involved in promoting it. As a result there are a number of investors over there jacked up on Hive.
Check out the HIVE room for all the investor banter:
Mining vs. mining………..
Maybe Frank can Ice land some profits……………
or just put some people in cold storage for Hilly……….
Swim with the sharks………Frank and Frank……Hive one and two…….
If the dow gold ratio gets to 21 like I think it will, that would mean a Dow at 25,200 with $1200 gold.
The Dow is going much higher in absolute and relative terms (real terms!) in the next 6 months..
Yen is in big trouble.
Ergo, gold and silver and especially miners are in big trouble. If we are 5-6 weeks away from a major low, a hell of a lot of damage can and will be inflicted on the sector. Honestly, to me, $usdjpy looks like it is in a new bull market based on the monthly chart.