Safe Havens – The Major Push and Pull Factors
Chris Temple and I look at the pullback in safe haven assets recently. Eliminating day to day noise and focusing on what is the most significant driver of these assets is real interest rates. The recent comment by the Fed point to rising real interest rates in the near term. We also consider how impactful tax reform and infrastructure spending will be if they get implemented.
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off topic:
(Has Macron been studying Germany?)
PARIS (AP) — As part of its budget plan for next year, French President Emmanuel Macron’s government is seeking to balance tax cuts with spending cuts to reduce the country’s deficit.
France’s budget, presented Wednesday in a Cabinet meeting, is based on an estimated growth of 1.7 percent next year — the same as this year.
The government plans to cut taxes by 10 billion euros ($11.7 billion) next year in hopes of boosting growth and job hiring. At the same time, the French budget includes 15 billion euros ($17.6 billion) worth of budget cuts. Macron was elected in May on a promise to make French economy more competitive in a globalized world.
The US desperately needs a major corporate tax cut, and a general decrease in personal taxation, if it wants the US economy to grow faster.
By any rational measure the US stock market is over-valued. Liquidity is keeping it up, but if the Fed removes liquidity, watch out below.
Politicians depend on the Money Changers for career protection.
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-09-27/how-congress-governs-the-federal-reserve
More double speak from the money changers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/09/26/feds-brainard-labor-market-disparities-reducing-us-economys-potential.html
I’ll concede that silver is poised for a bounce, maybe a large one (based on 2 hour chart divergence with RSI, as well as the how far below the 50 day EMA it is on the daily chart). EXK and AG are coiled for a bounce too. So maybe IPT.V will be spared making another lower low here.
Silver stinks until it breaks $22
These “to the moon” guys have been full of poop for years, same as the manipulation crowd.
I do figure everything is manipulated tho.
One thing I think is true, fundamentals should overcome all of it.
Should, maybe not.
Sep 27 My Views Regarding Prospects for Gold Hugo Salinas Price plata
Hugo writes about a fundamental that should matter big time.
Sure, this story has been around a few weeks.
Remember too, Mexico is discussing making silver legal tender again.
It could happen.
These things should take PMs to their natural free market level.
Well, should.
Good comment b. It can be very dangerous listening only to the :to the moon” guys. They can be entertaining but very bad for your portfolio.
Guys, just remember that the same can be said of those who are overly cautious during a bull market – they will cost you. The strongest trends, bull or bear, are driven by the fact that most people are on the wrong side. So the best thing for this bull would be for everyone to doubt it. Which means i should be quiet. 😐
Matt,
Matt, I agree. I believe the next major move in the PMs will be missed by 40-50% of the gold bulls who aren’t employing substantial portion of their gold/silver portfolio to “a turkey strategy”. Gold is HATED now by both the bears and a fair % of the bulls…..this next move in the dollar could prove one more painful washout of the bulls. As long as this market is perceived as a “BEARish-bull” the next major move will be substantial and missed by a lot of technicians too. Gold is too sophisticated for most investors to fully price and understand.
Good point Matthew. Either way a lot of people miss out on the upside by being to cautious and a lot of people get hurt by buying into the feeling of needing to be all in. It’s when everyone is trying to get in is the time to get out in my eyes.
Doesnt look like the link worked.
Its at 321gold or plata
oops
Jose Altuve just got his 200th hit for the 4th year in a row and is hitting .349
He’s having another great year! I love baseball and this time of the year coming into playoffs gets really exciting!
So many good teams that are looking strong into October.
Who’s your team Bonzo?
Hi Cory, when I was a boy I loved the Yankees with Mantle, Yogi Berra, Moose Skowron, Roger Maris, Hank Bauer, Gil McDougal, Tony Kubek, Cletis Boyer, Bobby Richardson, Elston Howard, Don Larsen, Bob Turley, and Whitey Ford. When Houston got a team in 1961 I started rooting for them. I went to the 1st game ever played in the Astrodome in April ’65 and say my idol Mickey Mantle hit the 1st indoor HR, but the Astros won 2-1. Go Astros!
I watched Don Drysdale throw 100mph against the Astros in the temporary stadium while they were building the Astrodome. I saw Hank Aaron snap his wrists for several home runs against the Astros when the Astrodome was finished. I also saw some great Astros (and Colt 45s) traded to other teams and become all stars. Mayor Hofheinz and crowd who liked money more than baseball. My mother died at 100 and her favorite thing was watching the Astros…and now they arevwinning.
That’s amazing! I grew up watching the Yankee’s team with Jeter, Williams, Pettitte, Rivera, etc… I know it’s contradictory but I cheer for them but also like it when the Blue Jays do well (it makes it way more fun to watch the games in bar when they are good).
Either way this time of the year is great for sports fans!
Texas has no income, estate, or stamp tax, but I paid 21K in property and school tax on my hacienda.
Your hacienda must actually be a “el rancho cost a plenty”, since property taxes are based normally on market value.
My parents paid just $26,500 for it, back in 1946. And now the annual tax is 21,000.
$26,500 in 1946 puts easily over $1,000,000 today, thanks to the Fed’s massive counterfeiting.
Yep, 1.1 mil, but since it did not flood during Harvey I hear it may be worth 20% more.
In 1946 where I live you could have bought a nice property for $8000 CDN. Now you would pony up about 3,000 times that much.
Yeh, Dick Tracy but were you alive in 1946?
They kill you in Texas with property taxes. Best state for overall taxes may be Alabama for retired folk and golfers.
Off topic: Just noticed this article about trump possibly firing HHS Secretary: http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-looking-very-closely-at-firing-health-secretary/ar-AAsxpOA?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=ientp
JMO but I think if he does, his popularity will climb out of the hole and up by several points!
Another SPorts SCAM……Pitino….bye bye……about time…..
https://www.aol.com/article/news/2017/09/27/rick-pitino-ousted-after-university-of-louisville-is-linked-to-college-basketball-bribery-scandal/23224859/
Pay for Play……….clean up the colleges…….what a freaking scam….
Republicans Push For 2nd Special Counsel To Investigate Hillary, Comey, & Lynch
As Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump-Russia collusion turns into a witch-hunt in search of anything, or anyone that can be scapegoated to justify the year long circus originating from a Hillary Clinton-John Podesta concocted story to explain away their failed $2 billion election disaster, documented crimes were committed by Hillary Clinton, James Comey, and Loretta Lynch.
Perjury, obstruction of justice, secret airport tarmac meetings, leaking of government documents, and the destruction of 33,000 government emails… perhaps the GOP has finally mustered up the balls to bring in the real criminals to justice.
Moe , Larry , Curley……………….
http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user3303/imageroot/2017/09/23/20170927_lockemup.jpg
8
JPMorgan Ordered To Pay Over $4 Billion To Widow And Family
“Surviving stage 4 lymphoma cancer was easier than dealing with this bank and its estate administration.”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-27/jpmorgan-ordered-pay-over-4-billion-widow-and-family
Illegal immigration costing U.S. record $135 billion a year
The swelling population of illegal immigrants and their kids is costing American taxpayers $135 billion a year, the highest ever, driven by free medical care, education and a huge law enforcement bill, according to the the most authoritative report on the issue yet.
And despite claims from pro-illegal immigration advocates that the aliens pay significant off-setting taxes back to federal, state and local treasuries, the Federation for American Immigration Reform report tallied just $19 billion, making the final hit to taxpayers about $116 billion.
State and local governments are getting ravaged by the costs, at over $88 billion. The federal government, by comparison, is getting off easy at $45 billion in costs for illegals.
President Trump, Attorney General Jeff Sessions and conservatives in Congress are moving aggressively to deal with illegals, especially those with long criminal records. But their effort is being fought by courts and some 300 so-called “sanctuary communities” that refuse to work with federal law enforcement.
Xop and energy stocks have had a big move up the charts looking extremely overbought. I sold off my xop for another big gain today and will wait for a correction. Oil appears to have stalled at 52 and it could correct to 50 to 50.50 before it moves higher.
https://www.sovereignman.com/tax/update-from-puerto-rico-people-are-running-out-of-cash-atms-arent-working-and-groups-of-looters-are-posing-as-police-22427/