Doc is back!! Commenting on Gold, USD, and the Dow:Gold radio
Gold news everyone Doc has found some internet and took some time out of his day to recap his thoughts on gold, the US Dollar, and the Dow to Gold ratio (see chart below).
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And of course that 200 MMA in the $indu:$gold ratio won’t hold. It’s about to explode higher. Whether it reverses at that point is anyone’s guess, but I doubt it.
When has the $HUI closing below its 20 month MA ever been a positive sign, yet we got precisely that a couple of months ago and look to be doing it again this month.
At BEST, we will get a 2005 style dip to touch the lower monthly bollinger band. It;s anyone’s guess where price and the lower BB will meet. My guess is marginally below the December 16 low.
Note that during the epic bear market, price never closed above the 20 MMA, and if it ever touched that MA, it immediately bounced away downward–exactly what you want to see in a bear trend.
Welcome back, Doc! Sorry to hear you sold your NSRPF. I still have mine. I bought some Rye Patch last week, and KLDX and MUX this week as you weren’t around to caution me.
Glad to hear your thoughts Doc.
It is frustrating seeing the potential in gold & silver miners but knowing that, as a Brit, buying US PM stocks in USD means that gold & silver stocks only go up when I am buying a declining USD.
So the gains in any PM stocks have to be greater than the USD decline in order to not lose out. I imagine Canadians and others on here from outside the US feel the same.
Oh for a year when the USD and PM stocks go up together – one can dream.
EGO getting absolutely killed
Off topic a bit…could this be a good time to invest in agriculture?
+1 Red Dragon
Agricultural stocks are in a zone where the next few years may be a nice steady incline. I’m reviewing the Soft Commodities and Agricultural stocks more closely again.
For long-term investors, agricultural commodities look like a very good bet right now, to me.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24BCOMAG&p=W&st=1990-01-01&en=today&id=p11813716884&a=495583053
Thanks for your update, Doc. I always appreciate your view on the markets. I’m going to keep buying on the pullbacks. I did sell some that rose over 25% and waiting to buy them back.
The size of the red ichimoku cloud on the metals and miners monthly charts speaks to a basing process that is going to last 2 or more years from here IMO. It’s possible they trend up, but more likely they will be range bound for that entire time and will come back to test recent levels. And that’s if you are bullish.
Doc,
welcome back! I’m glad to hear you unloaded some/most of your Novo stock. I sold about 55% of my position 2 days ago and will be looking to redeploy that money into PPP, JAG and EFR. I will do that later in the month if or when gold grinds down a bit more.
Glad to see you back Doc. Keep Nibbling!!!
60 Minutes with Dustin Angelo, CEO Anaconda Mining $ANX
by @Newton on August 3, 2017
https://ceo.ca/@Newton/60-minutes-with-dustin-angelo-ceo-anaconda-mining-anx
The Dollar may have bottomed. If so, the 100 level gaps are the target.
For at least the short term, I’d say it has definitely bottomed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p76127283659
There is no way the commodity complex bottomed in June. I’m not saying we are going to crash tomorrow, but that June low will be taken out eventually.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p40498262412&a=537988363&listNum=1
I think the complex did bottom in June.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p98107589435
Let me know when GCC closes back above the 20 MMA as a first step.
I do think that GCC will need to consolidate its huge first leg down before the next leg down can begin. It could go sideways to down until the 20 MMA gets a bit closer to the declining 50 MMA.
I also, think the $usdjpy may not take off again for another month or two yet, so that will give GCC time to maybe put in a slight rally here and there. Maybe it even tests the 100 WMA or breaks above it to sucker in the last long before rolling over.
I think gold and silver will lead the charge lower once $usdjpy gets its footing and the monthly bollingers tighten up just a bit more. Also, remember the point I made about the monthly stochastics on GDX and $xjy–there is no way they are just going to trend sideways above oversold and then flip back up. No, we are going to oversold levels, and likely this month. Thereafter, I’m not sure what happens, but it could be devastating for the miners.
I don’t know how you can read such bearishness into the charts, spanky.
HUI:GLD weekly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3AGLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p68630764938&a=537999457
Once that trendline breaks to the downside, and it will eventually, it will be clear.
BTW, I recall months and months ago I mentioned that Impact had a huge head and shoulders on the weekly chart and that it projected to zero if the neckline was broken and I recall you not being concerned about it.
Well, I think you have to strongly consider now that a the huge gap from 2016 is going to get closed, in time.
Yes, a closing of that gap would make me very wrong.
Looking at the monthly chart, there is nothing but air under Impact now. Touch of the lower bolliner band is coming, probably under 20 cents. After that, the 2016 gap will be targeted.
I bought more IPT, btw, at an average of .34125 today.
I’ll say it again, if you can’t articulate a long thesis for yen, you have no business speculating in PMs.
While it could be that miners made a low in 2016, they could chop around for years. The sheer size of the red ichimoku cloud on the monthly $HUI chart and the steepness of the left border certainly strongly suggest that.
It’s the best of all easily accessed trading markets.
So why are you staying long the PMs?
I have no clue. I suppose I am too scared to go long the stock market at this point. It would also be an admission that I was 100% wrong about how things would play out.
One of my main holdings is AXU, and I was always willing to accept that it could go to .80. So I am willing to take another beating here until the technical picture totally collapses.
This is not bull market action:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p22958391251&a=537995552&listNum=1
Overall, that is most definitely bull market action. In light of last year’s giant move, such a consolidation is perfectly normal.
I am not doubting–yet–that the 2016 will hold. What I am saying is that the action will be a relentless grind down, and then back up, that will play out for years, not weeks or months. Again, see $sugar monthly chart from 1998-2006 to get a glimpse of the possible future. Again, one of the biggest reasons I am drawing this analogy is the sheer size and vertical face of the red ichimoku cloud on the monthly chart. Clouds of similar size are only broken from below, but there is nothing but a vertical face presenting itself at the moment. We had our chance in 2016 to break through the cloud, but $HUI failed bigtime. The result is that this consolidation is going to play out for a handful of years, not 1 or 2.
Spanky could you post a chart with the Ichimoku cloud and where you think it needs to go below before it can break out to the upside.
I’ll have to look at the sugar chart, but that seems like a commodity with a much different volatility fingerprint or patterns. Interesting thoughts to consider though.
I expect gld:$xjy monthly candle to close red. I was always worried about the very large black candles printed in 2016. I think we close below them this month or next.
The interesting thing will be to see if the ratio can bounce off of the 100 MMA.
What if the yen has bottomed against gold. Would be too precious.
I expect gld:$xjy monthly candle to close red. I was always worried about the very large black candles printed in 2016. I think we close below them this month or next.
The interesting thing will be to see if the ratio can bounce off of the 100 MMA.
What if the yen has bottomed against gold. Would be too precious.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3A%24XJY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p42654601897&a=538009148&listNum=1
NEM hit its 100 month MA last month and that has seemingly halted its current ascent.
It’s not going anywhere soon. Price is going to flag back down to at least the 20 MMA over the next few months.
The monthly bollinger bands still have 3-4 months worth of tightening to do. I imagine GDX will drift down and touch the lower bollinger band before this is all over.