Gold investment demand in the US is holding prices steady
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
- Segment 1: Fund manager Dana Lyons provides his perspective on the potential of the US markets reaching all time highs.
- Segment 2: Chuck Provini, CEO and President of Natcore updates us on on the future revenue stream for the company. Click here to visit the Natcore website.
- Segment 3: John Kaiser, editor of Kaiser Research, shares his take on the Kaminak takeover and an exploration company he really likes
- Segment 4 and 5: Managing Partner at the CPM Group Jeff Christian discusses the global demand metrics for gold as price rises.
- Segment 6: Sean Brodrick compares this bull market to what we saw back in 2001.
- Segment 7: Chris Temple from the National Investor takes a close look into what the funds in the US are doing with their money.
- Segment 8: An update from Roger White at Theralase on the ITA and sales of the TLC-2000. Click here to visit the Theralase website to read over the news releases mentioned.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
At least Craig Hemke makes it reasonably easy to hear what he is thinking & supports what his thoughts are…unlike Bob Moriarty who sounds more & more like Jeff Christian all the time…
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7626/sprott-money-weekly-wrap-andrew-maguire
4 oz:
It’s time for a reverse IQ test.
If there is a 70 year supply of gold above ground unlike any other commodity ever produced, and we keep producing more gold, just how soon do we run out of gold? It’s not a trick question, it’s a real question. If you can answer it correctly, you will make money in this bull market. If you can’t answer it correctly, you will lose all your money following fools.
The biggest time I have ever seen paper prices deviate from physical prices was on January 9, 2012 when Eric Sprott managed to convince the sheep that his paper silver was worth 34.22% more than physical. Other than that major deviation, physical is paper unless you mine it yourself.
http://sprottphysicalbullion.com/sprott-physical-silver-trust/net-asset-value/
But whatever you do, don’t let facts interfere with your opinions.
Sir, should this really be Bob, –I have never claimed to be the sharpest tool in the shed, nor do I blindly follow anyone —truly wanting to remain teachable.
70 years of Gold is still above ground yet even someone, dumb as a stump like me, can see that Gold must be revalued higher as a consequence of all the debt and lack of collateral in the worlds monetary system. (And yes, as a consequence of VERY CLEAR ongoing Market interventions/manipulation.)
My opinions are mine alone and what meager physical Gold and Silver I own is in my possession, which is the fact I prefer to focus on.
Another fact is that Craig Hemke is a regular here now on the KER and you Sir, despite your provocative views seem to have gone the way of Trader Rog and Gary Savage. How hard would it be for you to do a weekend segment with Al and Cory twice a month anyway??
4 Oz. You are mixing apple and oranges. The issue of what the value of paper currencies should be has nothing at all to do with Comex or any other exchange defaulting which seems to be the flavor of the day for the fools. And most of the people including “Turd”. If you notice, he’s trying to back away from the name he gave himself.
Gold is never going to change its value. An ounce of gold was worth an ounce of gold 1000 years ago and it will be worth an ounce of gold 1000 years in the future. What is really going to happen is that currencies are going to blow up. If you focus on gold and the price of gold, you are missing the big picture.
What is the value of an ounce of gold in Bolivars today where the biggest note is 100 Bolivars and worth about a cent? You can’t quote it because the currency simply isn’t money any longer any more than you can with the Zimbabwe 100 trillion dollar note.
Craig Hemke or should I call him the “Turd” in the punch bowl wants subscribers so he not only will feed all your fantasies, he wants to be everywhere. I don’t need subscribers so if you want my opinion you will need to come to my site. Don’t bring any money with you, I don’t need it. My model doesn’t consist of telling people what they want to hear.
Bob, agree with everything you said except those about turd. I used to follow your closely. But I got turned off because you don’t give others their room for opinion or even facts. Things are many facets. People like Rick Rule, John Embry, sprott and Neumeyer are experts in their field and should be respected.
Dragonlite:
When Eric Sprott manipulated, and it was manipulation, but it’s Eric Sprott so we don’t mention it, when he manipulated the premium of his Silver paper ETF up to 26% in late April of 2011, he sold all his shares in his own ETF. I’m told he bought silver but certainly I am not party to what he does privately. He did have to report the sale of the ETF share so it is public record.
His manipulation put millions of dollars in his pockets at the expense of his ETF shareholders. Help me out here, how much should I respect him?
Then I hope you can explain why share buyback and executive get large bonus is not manipulation and how Sprott can manipulate his fund up by selling. It cannot be done. I own some his silver ETF but I bought it around par in the last year. If he is proven guilty I think he was also manipulating even it is on a much smaller scale.
Dragonite: Eric did not manipulate his fund higher by selling. He manipulated his fund higher by pumping it beyond belief to an absurd level.
Anyone paying a 26% premium was a chump and I said so. But he did take millions of dollars from his shareholder’s pockets and put it into his own.
I made no comment at all on share buy backs or bonuses so again, you are trying to put words and concepts in my mouth.
The premium on his Silver paper fund went to 26% because of Sprott pumping and then he unloaded his shares. His sales were a matter of public records. And unless you believe the tooth fairy took the premium up to 26% you need to accept my opinion. I watched the whole thing in horror.
Bob, before their fund came out, I was thinking about buying some. But I did not do it due to the premium kept increasing. I was mostly in Central fund and silver bullion trust ETFs. I sold nearly all of my silver trust and kept some in cash and some moved to CEF in March and April 2011. I sold all shares except SVM and EDV as well prior to April 2011. People who missed the silver train were panicking in the spring of 2011. All ETF had premium including silver bullion trust. I think the day I sold my last chunk of SBT.UN, it is only 10 cents from the high. It has 10% premium. I wouldn’t blame Sprott for promoting silver. He is not significant enough to manipulate silver price. As for promoting his fund, is it his job? Everyone promote their products. As long as he did not use illegal means, he is fine. I just don’t see what he did wrong on promoting his fund. I may be not very informed.
I brought up share buyback not because you said it is not manipulation, just saying it is a well accepted manipulation even.it is far bigger than verbal promotion of one products. CEOs are physically intervening in their share price.
Please let me know if you know how Sprott manipulate his fund so I can be more alert. I do own several of his funds include his Physical silver trust, precious mineral fund and platinum fund. But I bought all of them very low and is making a lot of money.
Bob, there is nothing more bothersome to investors than facts.
You must understand that most investors are dreamers.
What was that book you recommended? You gave a few examples yourself. ah yes, Memoirs of Extraordinary Popular Delusions.
We see it all the time, as in expecting your team to win the championship, why destroy a good dream with facts. lol
An excellent book Bob, couldnt put it down.
For some reason the gold bugs who are always so knowledgeable about gold and silver, never seem to get around to noticing the obvious which is that precious metals have been through a few unprecedented speculative bubbles in the past 100 years.
What I like to remind them about is the number that should really get their attention. That is of course the mean price across time and not the peak price that they so lovingly quote as evidence of golds importance.
And when looking at the mean we can easily see that even today gold is still overpriced on a historical basis. And that is why I continue to believe that the mean reversion in gold has not yet completed.
We remain within a secular bear in precious metals. What we have is a false breakout and nothing more.
People have an affinity to gold for some reason, I sure like it.
Maybe its in our dna?
Gotta be a reason for it.
A littile tin foil, gold is used for wedding rings and put on the left finger, to cut off the heart line and allow a connection between the two people.
No idea if it would work if 3 people married each other. lol
Bird, Bobs book is a quick short read, you will enjoy it, even tho you already understand what he is saying.
I know I got a couple giggles.
One fact Bird, if gold is overpriced, then should the companies which dig the stuff out of the ground be making a killing? Look at their financial statements, you get a different impression. My emphasis is more on silver, which is more miserable. Most are dormant and brave ones are coming to the market begging. This should not happen.
By the way, who are the “we” you referred?
Dragon, are they making a killing?
Most have been bleeding cash for the last few years, after reducing costs and a little increase some are now making cash, not sure I would say they are making a “killing” tho.
Thats not to say people wont increase the amount they own due to negative interest etc.
And it is a small market so it shouldnt take much for the price to move up.
This is what I mean. If the gold price is too high they should have made a killing. But now they are been killed.
Bird:
You have no idea of how I have to grate my teeth to agree with anything you say but now and again you come up with gems well worth listening to. While I don’t agree with your near term predictions for gold, I will point out that in the Dec-Feb time frame gold was higher against oil than it had ever been. It was higher against all commodities than it had ever been, it was higher against platinum than it had ever been and against silver it was almost at a record high.
So my “opinion” is that gold has started a bull market, the facts are that compared to everything else, gold certainly was high during that period. You may be right in your “opinion” of the price of gold and only time will tell.
Listen to B, you will love the book. 80% of the people here will hate it but you will love.
I find that odd Bob, you and Bird agree on alot.
(other than Israel)
Bird is right, gold should go to the mean, as you actually explained in your book I believe.
What Bird may not be taking into account is exactly as you mentioned, “popular delusion”,
we may very well have a drop in price thru the doldrums, but after that, its probobly up we go.
Then again, that might be what most expect and the contrarian bet would be short. lol
But I really dont know anything, I should be a “guru” lol
You grate your teeth about most of my comments? Really? Thanks Bob!!!!
I agree with BOB……”is that gold has started a bull market”
Bob, you give the Bird way too much credit. It’s due to chance and his predisposition that he sometimes says things that you agree with – not knowledge of any facts.
Perhaps it is because you are very busy that you haven’t noticed that he is a complete BSer.
Btw, gold was far higher versus oil at its peak in the early 1930s. Still, gold is quite high right now in real terms even if it is cheap relative to debt.
So, Mr Smarty….gold is quite high now in real terms? Amazing you would admit that even as you keep telling everyone gold is still in a secular bull market. Your inconsistencies are truly epic but can still be equally matched by your poor charting skills.
You’re obviously not paying attention, Bird. I’ve been saying for over a year that I’m downright bearish gold compared to the gold miners and that its real price is high.
Yes, it is absolutely 100% still in a secular bull market. Its bear market low didn’t even reach it’s 2008 HIGH.
I agree with Bob that gold is in a new bull market. I feel silver will be in a super bull market. I know Bob is not a keen about silver. But he should be favouring silver too at present.
Bird needs to get the fact straight and justify why gold price is too high and miners languish. The gold to HUI or XAU ratios are in a region which NEVER happened in history. It is to say miners are dying. Gold is over priced compared to what? historic price? but fiat papers have never been cheaper though.
Btw, high prices are a feature of any bull market so there is a conflict with your stance, not mine. In addition, a high REAL price is not the same thing as a high dollar price.
In order to have adequate supply of gold and silver, miners have to do well otherwise demand will overwhelm supply. We will never run out of gold since it is a matter of price. But we may run out of industrial silver if miners die. Silver is consumed daily and stock pile is small compared to annual usage of silver. I am not selling my stcok pile at anywhere close to the current price.
Matthew:
You need fact checking. You need to look up the price of gold on the day oil hit $26 and change. The ratio was 48-1. It only barely got to 40-1 during the depression. Sorry but in this case your facts are wrong. And actually Bird gets a lot of things right. I disagree on Israel and on if gold is in a bull market but it’s perfectly ok for people to disagree on opinions. It’s when people try to warp facts to fit their opinions I have an issue.
Check on oil and I think you will see I am right.
dragonite:
You make the same mistake a lot of people do and that’s read things into what I say that are totally contrary to what I believe. I give an absolute concrete trade in my book where buying silver when the ratio of gold to silver is above 80-1 and selling gold has always been a profitable trade regardless of how markets go up and down. Likewise selling silver and buying gold at a ratio of 40-1 is just as profitable. The trade is an average of 2.5 years but the return is consistently above 35%.
There are times I love silver and say so. At 84-1 I was dumping gold and moving into silver. For all things there is a season.
Bob, I once read that oil hit ten cents in 1931 but here’s an article that tells us that thirteen cents was the low. Gold was $20.67 at the time so one ounce of gold was worth 159 barrels. The recent peak was about 43 barrels if I’m not mistaken.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-crude-stocks-kemp-idUSKBN0L229920150129
I’m still open to being wrong (along with Reuters and other sources) but if right, this means that gold just might have a triple or quadruple left to the upside – in REAL terms.
Oil at $15 while gold is at $2385 (or $10 and $1590) would give us the same ratio that was seen in the summer of ’31.
Btw, I completely stand by my assessment of Birdman.
Matthew:
The article gives two prices, one at $.65 in 1931 and a reference to $.13 in one field. At $.65 the ratio would be about 31. While the article may be correct about the $.13, I can neither prove nor disprove the number, I’ve seen a bunch of articles that say the highest the ratio got in 1931-32 was 40-1. On Feb 11 oil approached $26 and gold was $1247 for a ratio of 47.96.
Thanks for clarification Bob. I like your following paragraph:
” I give an absolute concrete trade in my book where buying silver when the ratio of gold to silver is above 80-1 and selling gold has always been a profitable trade regardless of how markets go up and down. Likewise selling silver and buying gold at a ratio of 40-1.
”
Since I favor silver more than gold so I am slightly biased. The reason I thought you don’t favor silver is I remember when silver turned above 23 or so in 2010, you were recommending selling silver buy gold. Your are more of gold person than silver in my impression. I was told that you are very close to Bob Hoye and share similar views. Bob Hoye always feel sell silver buy gold is a good choice and predict gold/silver ratio about 100. Hope I got the information right.
Bob, it seems clear to me that .65 was the average for 1931. You and I are not talking about annual averages.
How about 6 cents, Bob? That’s 344.5 barrels per ounce.
TEXAS SEEKS TO BOOST OIL PRICE
(United Press Dispatch)
AUSTIN’, Tex.. July JO. A special session of the Texas legislature is looked to for aid by the midcontinent oil producers. Crude oil is selling at six cents a barrel and west Texas water is literally more expensive. It Is the lowest oil price since 1904…”
Halfway down the page:
“On July 14, 1931, when overproduction had driven the price of crude to thirteen cents per barrel…”
Based on this weekly chart, gold peaked at 43.55 barrels of oil in early February:
aragonite: I don’t want to sound like I am constantly pumping my book because I’m not but I give a real trade in the book. If the ratio of silver to gold is above 80-1, you should buy silver and sell gold. That was true recently when the ratio hit 84-1. When the ratio is below 40-1 you should sell silver and buy gold.
In either situation you are not making a bet on price, you are only making a bet on the ratio. The trade has always been profitable and lasts an average of 2.5 years. I like whatever metal is the cheapest. Right now it’s platinum and silver.
Bob, thanks. This has been what I was doing for the last 12 years.
Bob moriarty unless you prove what you are saying with technical analysis all that you say is pure speculation.Easy as that.You must convince us with facts i.e. technicals.This business is full of charlatans ,buffoons and shills and for these people words come so easy but when when confronted with technicals they either shy away or else they try to ridicule you.Bring us the facts bob that gold has finished this secular bear market and we will put more credence in what you.
Don, the secular bear ended 15 years ago. You’re talking about the cyclical bear within it.
Wrong Matthew. Gold is in a secular bear market right now. The bull died in 2011 following a run that lasted more than a decade and it has been all down hill ever since then as price is mean-reverting. The current price pop will be proven to be nothing more than a false rally within a larger falling trend. Silver in fact has almost entirely retraced its parabolic rise since 2008. And as the correlation between gold and silver is fairly consistent over decades and centuries (both rise and fall together) then we can safely assume gold has more work on the downside before it too completes its life cycle.
Your charting continues to be the WORST that is available on this site. You are blinded by your own belief systems or are manipulating based on your reasoning that gold should once again be real money.
You’re funny Birdman.
GOOD ADVICE BOB…………on the platinum and silver…….
Don Corleone: When I make it 100% clear that it’s my “opinion” that gold has bottomed, why would i need to prove anything. Bird said he thinks gold is going to $800 and he might be right. TA doesn’t prove anything at tops and bottoms, only in hind sight. Bird thinks we will have new lows and that’s OK, I don’t and I’ve made that clear. We have had one of the longest and most severe bear markets in history and when commodity prices are the lowest they have ever been in 5000 years, that’s bottom. I started saying that in November and I was right.
Platinum and palladium markets to go into deficit in 2016: GFMS
End of strikes in South Africa pushed production back up, but higher supply offset by robust autocatalyst demand
Andrew Topf | about 2 hours ago
http://www.mining.com/platinum-palladium-markets-go-deficit-2016-gfms/
That article was in support of Bob M. and OOTB’s mention of the Platinum market. I have noticed a nice uptick in the PGM miners in last 4-5 months, and feel there is still a little catching up that Platinum and Palladium have to do. For now, I want to see if we get a break-out or a break-down in the US dollar for a little better indication on what forces will be acting on commodities in general.
Cheers!
THanks EX………..appreciate your thoughts…………………….ootb
We will never run out of gold i guess,but what do i know?
Or,it will be so expensive that i will be replaced.
There are a lot of gold above ground. We will never really run out of gold. But this does not prevent it from being manipulated or managed. This I think is 4 Oz was initially referred to by bring up sprott and Craig.
Prices Keep Us from Running Out of Anything, Ever
Here’s something you may not have thought of: Is it moral for me to use something that someone else values more than I do? I think you can make an argument at least that the answer is “no.” If I know you need something, and I value it much less, but I use it up and keep you from using it then I am acting badly. I may have a reason to act this way, but as a general abstract matter we would like things to be used by the people who value them most.
Is there any way to make sure it works out this way? Well, in many cases this is exactly what the price system accomplishes, though we rarely hear things described this way. Markets combine the information in prices with the incentives to exchange if the person who has something values it less than the person who needs it.
Think about it: Suppose I have a widget, and I value it at $5. You value that widget at $10. We could say that I should just give it to you, but then that imposes a sacrifice on me. Maybe there is a place for charity here, but the point is that if you pay me $7 for the widget I am better off than before, and I’m happy to give the widget up. But you are better off also. I’m better off, and I’m not using the thing that you value more. So I benefit materially, and act morally. Win-win!
What does any of this have to with Simon and Ehrlich? Remember, Ehrlich was predicting catastrophe, scarcity, and shortages, which would imply that prices would go up. Simon was predicting that we would “never run out of anything,” which might also mean that prices would go up. For Simon to predict that prices would actually go down was pretty brave.
But it has nothing to do with the basic bet, which is that if there are property rights and prices are free to move we can never run out of anything. The reason is that if we start to run out of something, prices rise. And when prices rise, three things happen:
Consumers use less
Producers make more
Entrepreneurs figure out ways to make substitutes
That is the core of Simon’s prediction: we can’t run out of anything precisely because prices will go up, and trigger the three self-correcting mechanisms above. So the debate about whether Simon or Ehrlich was right about the direction of prices is just silly. Simon is right (we can’t run out of anything, ever) even if Ehrlich is right (prices rise sharply, and trigger reactions 1, 2, and 3).
The “Peak Oil” hysteria of the late 2000’s was idiotic. There was never any reason to believe that we were running out of oil. And, unsurprisingly, as soon as prices rose the result was:
Consumers cut back, choosing more fuel efficient cars and shifting away from oil as a power source.
Alternatives, such as shale oil, fracking, and new areas of exploration were developed, until the current amount of known reserves is nearly double what we knew of in 1985 (that’s double, twice as much, more not less, etc.)
Engineers and entrepreneurs were spurred to work harder on the problems of batteries, solar power, wind power, and other alternatives.
Of course, we can run out of stuff. We can run out of pelagic fish like cod or anchovies, taken from “open” fisheries in the “commonly-owned” oceans. We can run out of passenger pigeons, and rhinoceros, and other animals that are not owned by anyone and for whom the price mechanism cannot operate. What is the common feature of stuff we can run out of?
It’s managed by the state. Because of “market failures,” the state manages common pool resources. And that’s where the real danger lies. The environment is not safe, not because we are running out of stuff produced by markets but because we cannot control the resources managed by the state.
And that is what is actually scary. Forget Peak Oil; the problem is the Peak State.
An article from Michael Munger Feb 5 2016
BM…why do you always feel the need to attack people who’s views differ from yours? What makes you right? How do you know you’re right? Have you ever been wrong? How many bottoms did you call in the metals/miners? And didn’t you call a top around $35 silver back in 2011? Or was that one practice? Ease up.
Derrick:
You’re being very funny. The title of that piece in 2011 was “Is Silver Topping? Actually you need to read the article just above your attack where Michael Munger makes the very valid point that price will always control demand and we will never run out of anything. I’ve been trying to make that point for 15 years and still 80% this board wants to talk about how Comex is going to default and we are on the verge of running out of a commodity with a 70 year supply above ground.
Feel free to criticize me for being wrong. Everything I’ve ever written is still free and easy to go through. I don’t hide or bury my bad calls. But if you are going to criticize me, why don’t you say even a word about all the gurus who have never been right about a single thing but dominate 95% of the talk on this board.
Huhmm…
Mr Moriarty,not trying to be smart here,but how did i do on the reverse IQ test?
I bought a big position in SVM.TO at 0,66 ish Dec 2015,and it didn´t feel good,but i feel good about it now,still holding.
Moriarty said on Feb-18-2016
BM: Let me give you an example. Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVM:TSX; SVM:NYSE) was one of the great gainers in the 2002 and 2008 stock market. On a split basis, it went as high as $45/share. You could buy Silvercorp two weeks ago at $0.60/share, and I think it was $0.85/share last week. Even with $14/oz silver, Silvercorp is making money. It has $66 million ($66M) in the bank and at one point it had a $14M enterprise value. That’s one of 50 or 100 stocks in production and making money that I think are bound to go a lot higher. I was buying shares at $0.63 about 10 days ago and thrilled to do it.
I
Haha, Bob bought silvercorp same price as I did. I think he talked about canadian dollars.
Pete:
Buy the book. You will appreciate it. You got into SVM at $.66 and it went to $3.10. Take some money off the table when you can or you will lose money in the end.
Excellent show guys. Thanks once again for your work 🙂
Robert Moriarty
Maybe i will by the book.
On April 26, 2016 at 1:26 pm, On KER.
Pete says:
“SVM.TO just keeps climbing higher,where is it going, 3,10 ?” I trimmed some silvercorp near the top,so my pm stocks are not investments,they are just trades,some are long term(1-4 year?) trades.
I can dump my shares in a nanosecond, if i think that i need to,i am not married to them.I did not participate in the bull run of pm stocks to the 2011 top,so i did not,like some people ride them back down,i will try not to make that mistake.I remember the the euphoria 2011,if i see that,and some other indicators again,i will know that its time to sell. After reading “everything” on the www, and listening to “everybody” i bought my pm stocks at the end of 2015.I think we have started a new bull market in pm stocks,but i dont know if gold have bottomed.(just my opinion)
Obviously, i am not Jesse livermore,Rickard Russel or Doctor Rickard Postma( i wish i had their knowledge) so i could be completely lost in the Woods.
I will try not to lose money in the end.
Thank you
Please excuse any grammatical errors.
Pete:
You passed with an A+
We don’t need experts or gurus. They are all liars. That may piss them off but using sense instead of noise will put a lot more money in your pocket. That’s why i wrote the book.
Here is a really funny quote from Livermore that I plucked from KWN.
I believe that the public wants to be led, to be instructed, to be told what to do. They want reassurance.
They will always move en masse, a mob, a herd, a group, because people want the safety of human company.
They are afraid to stand alone because they want to be safely included within the herd, not to be the lone calf standing on the desolate, dangerous, wolf-patrolled prairie of contrary opinion.
I say much the same thing but I’m a better writer than Livermore so need less words KWN tells half the story. That makes them very popular and very wrong. There are two sides to everything and no one gets it 100% correct unless they are a fraud.
Thank you,Bob Moriarty.
A lot of Kaminak shareholders will be reinvesting a significant portion of their resulting Golcorp stock into more aggressive plays.
Today’s silver-lining comment ! Thanks, Dennis.
I was thinking about moving in the silver direction to something like Bear Creek.
Dennis
I am not the best source of guidance on silver PM miners (I think Matthew and Excelsior are the most knowledgable on the site). I limit myself to higher grade projects in NA jurisdictions (better environmental and licensing laws): Canada, US, Mexico
However, these are my current holdings:
Alexco Resources, Americas SIlver, Avino SIlver & Gold, Impact Silver, Golden Resources
Bear Creek:
HUGE reserve = 450 M Oz(b) with lower grades (50g/t) in a semi-risky jurisdiction Peru). So not my cup-of-tea.
SIlverCrest:
I could kick myself for not buy-in shares @ $0.20, so I think I missed this one …
SILJ
I like most of the companies in this ETF, so I will build up a position in this when the correction/consolidation in silver and PM stocks is over
Hope this helps
Shoot, I forgot Excellon as a current holding …
A damn good list of Silver companies Brian. I own Alexco, Americas Silver, Avino Silver and Gold, Silvercorp, Great Panther, Aurcana, Nicola MIning, and Dolly Varden.
I owned Silvercrest before the merger and sold, and then picked up shares of the exploration spinout and sold way too early. It seems like it may have gotten a big ahead of itself, like Bear Creek, but on a pullback…….. who knows, I may be game?
If there is a more substantial pullback in the Silver miners, or as profits free up in other trades from other sectors I plan on getting positioned in Impact Silver, Excellon, Bear Creek, Arizona Mining, Bayhorse Silver, and Endeavour Silver. I’m also still strongly considering Kootenay, Mirasol, Defiance Silver, and Canasil.
I was thinking Bear Creek as an appropriate replacement for Kaminak because like Kaminak it is a pre production situation.
All I heard are a bunch of technical contrarians. Sean Brodrick talked about 2001; Big Al talked about 2010. What about the fundamentals of 1913, 1933, and 1971? Governmental power in printing fiat currency for free and pouring that money into the stock markets to prop up equities is still strong; these people still hate commodities, despite China opening an exchange. That’s the bottom line.
In my own portfolio, Mag Silver Corp went from $14.48/share in April of 2011 to $5.13/share at Christmas of 2013, but is now $13.61/share on May 13th, 2016. Nova Gold Resources went from $10.66/share in Jan 2012 to $1.90/share in July 2013 to $6.13/share on May 13, 2016. Why are these junior(s) doing better while Newmont Mining Corp, Gold Fields LTD, the XAU, etc are still lagging near the bottoms of their share prices? That is what I want to hear about.
This may have something to do with the current facade fading into investor thinking.
There’s a ‘very dangerous situation’ taking place in the Comex’s gold vault
Something big is happening with gold. Over the past few years, if you bought and owned gold and gold mining shares, it’s been frustrating with gold prices in the doldrums of 2015, 2014, 2013, 2012. That’s four years of downside correction. But, that was then, and this is now. Let’s discuss what’s happening and nail down some serious opportunity …
Follow the money and right now money is moving into gold and select miners. In fact, there’s so much interest in “paper” gold that physical supply has utterly broken down. As in … crashed and about to burn in a roaring fireball!
This is critical. The amount of physical gold in storage in Comex versus the number of registered “owners” against each ounce is nuts.
From a few owners per ounce, it jumped to 542 by this March!
Just check out this remarkable chart: http://www.businessinsider.com/comex-vault-doesnt-have-enough-gold-2016-5
jhpace – the smaller more questionable plays perform better at the beginning of a bull market than their superior peers because their future survivability was more uncertain at the bear market lows. So the turn in the market was relatively much friendlier to them.
Of course, there might be company-specific reasons why a few of the big ones might be doing extra poorly – e.g. – debt, dilution, politics, operational problems at a flagship mine, etc.
Thanks for your posts, as always, Matthew.
My tangential thoughts:
The big difference, going forward, between Explorers/Developers and Producers, is that the Producers WILL eventually be valued based on fundamentals (e.g., reasonable P/E of 20-30) and market capitalization.
The explorers will be valued based on drill results and reserves. Speculators will be abundant, and these are the companies where a lot of percent gains can be made very quickly.
The Development stage companies are the most worrisome as they have made the fateful mistake of actually thinking they can operate a profitable mine: MANY developers do not have economically viable projects or do not have a clear path through the maze of financing and government regulations.
I pretty much agree with that, Brian. The best of both worlds can be had in small producers that have a lot of exploration potential and the ability to grow production.
Project generators are great, too. On that note, Strategic Metals is looking good and has closed at its highest weekly close in three years. It has fantastic potential and is in great financial shape.
Yes. I own Strategic because you mentioned it months ago, I did my DD, and added shares on pull backs. Great upside potential from here.
thanks for the tip………
Good thoughts Matthew & Brian. I agree with a great many of the points you both jst made on Explorers, Devlopers, and Producers and how they will be valued moving forward. I also like the small producers with large exploration upsides, the prospect generators, and development companies with good metrics.
Matthew – just a heads up that their is some interesting discussions around Golden Reign Resources on the ceo.ca, from the chatter coming out of the Metals Investor Forum taking place this weekend.
Brent Cook of Exploration Insights, Eric Coffin of The HRA Advisories, Brien Lundin of Gold Newsletter, and Gwen Preston of Resource Maven at the Metals Investor Forum on Saturday, May 14th and Sunday May 15th, 2016 in Vancouver.
Golden Reign Resources is one of their featured companies and this little blub was just posted on Tommy’s website:
_______________________________________________________________________________
-DJS $GRR. Kevin Bullock. Nicaragua play. Gold is leading export. San Albino project. Mine fully funded thru $15M streaming. High grade of 8 g/t. Open pit. Mine is only 2% of land base. AISC $464/oz. about 2 hours ago 0
– DJS – high IRR / low capex ratio. “Even beats Roxgold.” about 2 hours ago 1
@DJS expects mine permits by August. Expects free cash flow of $1M / month when operating in early 2017. about 2 hours ago 0
– DJS – showing what he calls “measles map”. $GRR property map with red dots all over it representing high grade surface samples taken.
It looks like it would have been a good event as both Jay Taylor and Jordan Roy-Byrne were featured speakers there as well.
Here is the list of companies covered at the Metals Investor Forum for anyone interested in researching these or weighing in on some of these companies:
___________________________________________________________________________
First Mining Finance Corp. (FF)
Evrim Resources Corp. (EVM)
Kaminak Gold Corporation (KAM)
West Red Lake Gold Mines Inc. (RLG)
Colorado Resources Ltd. (CXO)
CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. (CVV)
Auryn Resources Ltd. (AUG)
SilverCrest Metals Inc. (SIL)
Goldsource Mines Inc. (GXS)
Pure Gold Mining Inc. (PGM)
Newmarket Gold Inc. (NMI)
Brazil Resources Inc. (BRI)
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)
Klondike Gold Corp. (KG)
Sirios Resource Inc. (SOI)
Integra Gold Corp. (ICG)
Nevsun Resources Ltd. (NSU)
Orezone Gold Corp. (ORE)
Lithium X Energy Corp. (LIX)
TriMetals Mining Inc. (TMI)
Precipitate Gold Corp. (PRG)
Northern Shield Resources Inc. (NRN)
Millrock Resources Inc. (MRO)
Sandspring Resources Ltd. (SPP)
Sabina Gold & Silver Corp. (SBB)
Almadex Minerals Limited (AMZ)
Constantine Resource Metals Inc. (CEM)
Golden Reign Resources Ltd. (GRR)
Fission Uranium Corp. (FCU)
Aston Bay Holdings Ltd. (BAY)
Adamera Minerals Corp. (ADZ)
Victoria Gold Corp. (VIT)
Its a very good list of companies and I’m following most of them as well, some more closely than others, but there are some good explorers & development Gold & Silver companies, some small producers, some prospect generators a few uranium & lithium companies peppered in.
I just thought KER family may want to know where the weekend buzz was……
One company getting a some attention on Ceo.ca is Victoria Gold. People are speculating that the Kaminak takeover puts them in the cross-hairs and that they’ll be re-rated soon. Their stock has been on a tear lately, so I was hoping for a pullback, but now there is a whole new batch of investors that are pushing it even higher….
Again, there is ton of great ideas surfacing today from the show that Gwen Preston, Brent Cook, Eric Coffin, Brien Lundin, Jay Taylor, and Jordan Roy-Byrne are hosting.
That group collectively has a pretty good pulse on the exploration side of the business.
Thanks Ex, it’s good to see my Constantine Metals on the list, too.
Absolutely. I feel the same way about a number of the companies on their list as there are about a dozen on there that I like. Constantine is definitely one of the more interesting polymetalic copper/gold/base metals exploration/development stories at the moment with a solid management team, a great asset, and w/ great exploration upside.
Interesting list (I follow Gwen, Jordan, and Brent closely) so thanks for taking the time to compile and post, EX.
It made me happy to know I own 5 (with another couple within Strategic) and I am looking at 2-3 more for future investment.
The last show they also featured a few different companies and one was Eurasian Minerals as a Royalty company and project generator with other key investments in securities of other companies. Eurasian Minerals is very similar to Strategic Metals and I like them both and am a shareholder in Eurasian Minerals.
They also just covered Millrock Resources which is yet another similar Royalty/Project Generator/Strategic Investment company with a mineral bank to to JV.
I am using these Project generators as “profit dumpsters” as Matthew mentioned.
In addition Altius Minerals, Globe Minerals, Transition Metals, Midland Exploration, Aurico Metals, Arena Minerals, Oban Mining (changing name back to Osisko), First Mining Finance, and Abitibi Royalties are in the same camp.
……Globex (not globe) Minerals.
I’d probably throw Typhoon Exploration and Idaho North Resources in the camp of project generators as well.
For those that may have missed this show where Jay Taylor interviews Brent & Gwen, 2 weeks prior to their show this weekend, there are a few good thoughts and companies covered.
_____________________________________________________________________________
Brent Cook and Gwen Preston Favorite Gold and Silver
Jay Taylor Media
Published on Apr 27, 2016
Brent Cook and Gwen-Preston discuss some of their favorite gold and silver mining companies that are invited to the Metals Investor Forum.
Keep your eye Northern Freegold Resources Ltd V.NFR
Not far from KAM. They will be going back and concentrating on their high grade gold. Stock is only .25 and was $3.00 back in the day. Cheap now!
Thanks for the heads up Chad. I’m not familiar with them, but will check into it.
Much appreciated.
Sprott Money Weekly Wrap-up with Andrew Maguire
By Turd Ferguson | Friday, May 13, 2016 at 11:39 am
As most of you know, each week I assist the good folks at Sprott Money with their “Weekly Wrap-up” segment. With Eric unavailable this week, I was able to line up a special guest appearance from our pal, Andrew Maguire. The resulting audio is an absolute must listen for everyone at TFMR and the greater metals community, at large.
Just a few of the topics addressed by Andy in this podcast:
The resilience of paper prices, supported by the steady rise of wholesale prices in London
The importance of the $1308 level in gold
How physical-only exchanges like the SGE and ABX are changing the global gold market landscape
The impact the new Shanghai Fixes are having on the spot market
And much, much more.
Again, please take the time to listen and re-listen to this audio. The global gold market is far more vast than the Comex-centric wave-counters would have you believe. To understand it, you need wisdom and experience and we should all be grateful to Andy for sharing some of his with us today…TF
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7626/sprott-money-weekly-wrap-andrew-maguire
Something snapped. And it looks like the Venezuelan political system is about to implode.
Late last night the Venezuela government declared a National State of Emergency.
Nicholas Maduro accused that there was a coup against him being fomented by a consortium of opposition politicians within his country and emboldened by the United States and OPEC.
He gave no details of what the 60 day state of emergency would entail but those familiar with such actions will know that similar edicts elsewhere in the world often include the detention and arrest of enemies of a government, the suspension of civil rights and freedom of assembly, jailing of activists, violent responses against protesters and a tightening of the noose around the judiciary, executive and legislative branches of government.
In other words, dictatorship until tensions can be calmed or the public cowed into obedience.
All of it is desperate and as a rule such actions spell the beginning of end of the party or government who enact them. How long it actually takes for the populace to respond however is unknown. In practice it could take as little as a few weeks to as long as a decade for the offenders to be thrown from power.
Such actions can also result in the suspension of elections and other democratic process. The press will usually be limited or muzzled, borders closed, certain embassies closed and foreigners expelled among other predictable outcomes and measures.
To me this looks like a boil come to head. What lances it is anyone’s guess but the climate has become both dangerous and desperate in Venezuela in the past few months. One thing we do know is that ill treated hungry populations are the most likely to stage a rebellion or begin a civil war. They are also the most likely to turn over the offending regimes.
And if that is the case then yesterdays declaration of a State of Emergency may be the match that brings the inferno that ends the Maduro Presidency and that disturbed brand of Socialism once and for all.
Caracas just got a whole lot hotter……..and summer has not even arrived.
Sorry folks….I neglected to put up the link to the story about Venezuela. Here it is:
“Earlier Friday, U.S. intelligence officials told reporters they were increasingly worried about the potential for an economic and political meltdown in Venezuela and predicted Maduro was not likely to complete his term” — Reuters
Venezuela president declares emergency, cites U.S., domestic ‘threats’
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-venezuela-politics-idUSKCN0Y501X
And here is an alarming headline from the Washington Post. So it is not just ZeroHedge warning us that Venezuela is about to come unglued. US Intelligence is actually talking about an economic collapse.
Pay attention to the events there folks….this is how it always unfolds.
U.S. intelligence officials: Venezuela could be headed for collapse — Washington Post
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/us-intelligence-officials-venezuela-could-be-headed-for-collapse/2016/05/13/cffe0bb8-1935-11e6-924d-838753295f9a_story.html
What we are seeing in Venezuela are the direct results of American intervention.
I read Bobs book, I enjoyed it.
Bob’s book talks about Venezuela?
Not that I recall, its basic investing info.
And a darn good reminder for some it is.
He describes very well what needs to be looked at and what is plain “noise”.
Reminds people of a basic gold/silver ratio option that makes mulaa over time.
Dont be so cheap and read it, its less than $20 canadian delivered.
You will love it.
Venezuala is toast, as are the other s american nations being targeted.
Whats gonna happen? For investors as things cool down bet on western companies there.
bri comes to mind.
Personally Im not going to, I dont want to profit from suffering, which is actually a hard thing to stay away from.
To each his own tho.
Venezuela is toast….that’s probably a correct observation bb. It does look like its going to get a lot worse before it gets better. My instincts tell me the thing blows right around the time of the Brazilian Olympics.
I don’t think we should be too surprised if its South America that sets off the sovereign default cycle this time around just as they did in the 1930’s. Maybe that’s what is coming in 2017/2018 that Armstrong keeps warning about. He worries me a little because of some of his accurate predictions from the past. But when he says “most people will lose everything” I really start to get concerned. What the hell are people supposed to do when the debt bomb implodes along with social security, public services, pensions and even the currencies of a lot of countries. There is almost no way out and most f the planet seems to be living hand to mouth already .What I mean by that is that even in developed countries most people are just paycheck to paycheck. When 60% of Americans cannot come up with a measly 400 bucks for an emergency they are not independent anymore…..they are wards of the state.
Absolutely correct Bird, 100% agree as I understand what your seeing.
Brazil is another one, the yanks been after them since they became a “bric”.
Anyway, nothin you can do, become a “prepper”, stay out of the U.S.
Buy/raise chickens, lol, diversify and surround yourself with people you can trust.
Its actually pretty simple to know what to do once you think about it, doing it might be the challenge.
Didnt know thats where the defaults started in the 30s.
The truly scary thing to me, is war is used to cover things up, pcr is really mentioning the possibility, check his interview at kwn.
Bob wrote another book, about war, hope its not an omen.
Yup, Ecuador and Mexico hit the rug in 1929. Then Bolivia, Brazil, Chile and Peru all went down together in 31 followed by Costa Rica, Colombia, El Salvador, Panama, Nicaragua and Paraguay in 32.
The last were Uruguay and Guatemala that defaulted in 1933. Almost all of Central and South America was a disaster zone as far as debt went in those days (Argentina and Venezuela were two that actually didn’t default during the depression….but they made up for it later).
So get those risky bonds out of your Mutual fund RRSP today buddy! We are on borrowed time already. And you just know that something bad happens after every major Olympics (like Hitler in the 30’s).
WikiLeaks Exposes Newly “Selected” Brazilian President As Puppet For US Intelligence
by Jay Syrmopoulos, Activist Post:
The transparency organization WikiLeaks has exposed acting President Michel Temer, who ascended to the Brazilian presidency after a soft coup deposed President Rousseff, as having been an intelligence informant for the United States.
Found it,……… on sgt report. Venezuela is toast.
and so is Brazil
Interesting discussion on Venezuela and the potential for S. America to tip the scales on credit defaults. It’s very possible indeed.
They need around $130 oil to meet their economic needs/budget.
That is why the people are getting restless….and over dependence on higher priced oil has them in the pain locker.
Maduro has many of Castros goons there to show him how to stay in power as long as he wants.
Hi Al
There are two questions I wish you had ask Jeff Christian. Is there a sea change happening in the attitude towards gold because of NIRP. Also, does the new physical exchange in Shanghai open up the possibility of an arbitrage between the CME / LBME and the Shanghai exchanges. This could have interesting consequences for the price dynamic. I take Jeff more seriously than most because he doesn’t talk in hyperbole.
Bob
Those two interviews Jeff Did were fantastic. I don’t know why he used to upset people so much in the past but he is really well informed and on top of the gold market.
He upset people because of his relationship with big bullion banks and representing their interest. However, I still like listening to him for information and will come to my own conclusion.
Quiet a few times he interviewed with Jim Puplava and denied manipulation and came back to share stories how the manipulate. It is exactly like Martin Armstrong. If you take away their claims, they were great food for thought.
GURU REPORT……….JIM PUPLAVA…………..39.8%..
Bob – what are your cycles indicated for the PMs and for the general stock markets (ie the S&P, DOW, Nasdaq, Russell 2000) indicating for the short and mid term.
I always enjoy your thoughts on cycles.
That was to Bob Grierson for clarity since we have a few different Bob’s on here. 🙂
In short, I am really pissed-off … I doubt if my PF will EVER have those 10-baggers I dream about.
I find it interesting (Frustrating) that these recent takeovers are PURE CANADA companies; I believe it is the safe jurisdiction that made these companies EARLY-BULL MARKET take-over targets by international companies with lots of risky projects.
o Claude Resources
o Lake Shore Gold
o Kaminak
And I imagine these PURE-CANADA companies will be taken over within 12 months with that LOUSY 25% premium based on a share-swap:
+ Kirkland Lake
+ Integra Gold
+ Atlantic Gold
+ Sabina
In my PF, I carefully planned on having almost all pure-canada explorers and developers. Not really sure what I will replace them with …
dont forget Balmoral imo its definitely on that takeout list but it wont go for a 25% premium. probably much higher
I agree on Balmoral Ronny. A very unrated company, but it has been doing great lately and is finally in the limelight.
Brian – you may have the bite the bullet and become an International Man of Mystery…
Therase. When do clinical human trials start. What is status of US clinical trials? Thanks.
Well, if Venezuela does implode then the price of oil will shoot up. Awful situation for the people of that country.
I think they are only producing about 2 million barrels a day now and its falling. No spare parts, little electricity, hardly any foreign technical support and no cash to pay workers. But you are right, a civil uprising there could bring the global glut to an end overnight if supply was disrupted. Its something we need to keep an eye on.
Maduro already has the license to rule by decree that was granted him last year. He can write any law without oversight or a vote so he is in effect already a dictator. It just remains to be seen how far he will take that right and if he will abuse the privilege.
The thing is..with the severity of rationing and shortages they are already suffering and with that government increasingly being isolated internationally even as violent protests are erupting at home then the road to an outright overthrow may be a short one.
We cannot rule out a military coup. Whatever happens..it will be sudden even if its expected.
But just by way of comparison Bob, Saudi Arabia, with an amount of oil roughly equal to Venezuela’s, manages to pump more than five times the daily amount of the Maduro regime while providing one of the highest living standards in the word for its own people.
It is inexplicable how the Venezuelan government has fallen to be one of the most violent corrupt and poverty stricken nations on Earth in spite of their astounding wealth. But lets never discount the ability of a few people at the top to steal a nations wealth for their own pockets.
Nothing short of a full scale popular revolt will bring balance back and end the theft. The current regime will likely need to be destroyed completely if the people and the nation will ever realize their full potential.
I lived in Colombia for over a decade. I speak fluent Spanish.
The people are unarmed for a reason.
That’s part of the scam of the socialist.
Unarmed poor people are sheep.
Chris,
Yep and a large percentage of the socialist American public can’t wait for the guns to be removed from the land of the free and brave. Gag!
Can you imagine what in the hell will happen to the population governed by the most insidious, hi-tech, full spectrum dominance, lawless and corrupt power structure ever known to the planet in the name of the United States governing architecture when it becomes fully operational.
Can you even comprehend what these power hungry satanic control freaks have in-store for their little worker-bee taxing cattle when all ability to put up a fight has been removed because the Constitutions Second Amendment is completely destroyed.
I don’t think you have seen any science fiction movies to date that can quantify the significance of the ugly that will be unleashed. The cashless element will simply be the cherry on top!
A grim but believable forecast. I’m trying to really appreciate the present moment and the freedoms we are still allowed at present. The future is a big unknown but looking more like a controlled existence as each piece of their plan falls into place.
Gun control advocates are either ignorant or evil, there is no third kind.
Yes Matthew, ignorant or evil are certainly correct descriptions that come to mind.
I would purpose to you that there are even a few more choice analogies that could be said to identify these types but the words would be inappropriate for this site.
I dont think the people are informed/care enough to do anything anyway, guns or no guns.
Think about it, are the ex prez bush criminal? Clintons? Albright? etc With all those guns why are they still breathing?
Heck, evidence of Bill Clinton raping girls under 14 was presented on zerohedge/silverdoc etc (on some guys private jet thats a convicted pedophile)
These people are psychopaths, so is Obama with his signing of the ndaa
People dont have a clue and couldnt care less anyway, so, guns or not, nothing is going to change these psychopaths plans, except maybe a nuke or 50.
And its entirely possible nukes is the ultimate goal.
B,
I don’t disagree that nothing has been done up-to this point to correct the wrongs and balance the scales of justice. The Leave it to Beaver days are long gone, if they even ever existed as a figment of our feeble imaginations.
But if you’re trying to convince me that by taking all of the guns away from law abiding citizens will produce no ill effects which will categorically facilitate a hyper-drive into extreme tyrannical behavior by the deep state even greater than witnessed today then you are beyond foolish.
But believe what ever you want.
Wasnt trying to convince you or anyone else of anything V.
Was merely expressing my own opinion.
Guns/no guns, no difference.
Well, maybe in Chicago…….
I don’t believe Saudi Arabia’s oil and Venezuela’s oil are comparable. Venezuela is mostly tar sands in the Orinoco basin. Not at all the same thing as conventional oil. But yes, they have a lot of resource wealth.
If you knew Venezuela I don’t think you’d find the current situation to be all that inexplicable. Resource wealth, combined with deep-seated social problems, often turns out to be more curse than blessing. A hostile, domineering neighbor opposed to all necessary social reform doesn’t help.
As for popular revolt, that was what put and kept the Chavistas in power…so now where do they turn?
JAG has finally backtested the double bottom neckline – to the penny…
The ensuing bounce from there, on good volume, is bullish action.
Daily:
Yes, I was getting a bit nervous when it turned down, but was happy to see it bounce up nicely off support. Thanks for the JAG chart Matthew.
Great stuff,Matthew
Hey Pete, click on that daily chart again. I just added another line to cut the lower half of the fork in half (which is a standard practice). JAG reached the double bottom neckline and that 50% level at the same time (light blue line). Had price not reversed sharply at that level, the odds of reaching the bottom fork support later on would be much greater.
Thanks Matthew,your charts are always appreciated.
Fear and greed is the only way to describe speculation and the stock market. Greed has had it’s way and one wonders how close we are to fear being in the ascendancy. Most households and businesses the world over are weighted down with debt. At some point fear will not be able to delay it’s coming. In this day and age of instant communications and the internet, word will get out fast that the bottom is dropping and the selling will begin in earnest.
Will the bargain hunters come to the rescue. What about investment trusts and huge hedge funds over leveraged will they be making new purchases at lower prices. Will the bankers and The Federal Reserve be able to support prices at that moment, again. The US luckily still has the World’s Reserve currency but if they ever lose that they could soon become Venezuela in a heart beat. I don’t know whether I would want to see that day when Americans had to live like every other citizen on this planet. DT
” I don’t know whether I would want to see that day when Americans had to live like every other citizen on this planet. ”
All I’ve got to say is our government seems to be working very hard to bring that to fruition.
Doc, the American people are going to have to fall a long way before they get to experience living the same lives I see in Africa. But when I see them cutting their own shoes from old rubber tires and dying at home from simple infections that 10 bucks of antibiotics might cure I will agree with you.
America has lost its reserve currency status already. But it still will be one of the main reserve currencies. I think there is going to be five reserve currencies.
One thing I’ve never heard anyone mention on this blog, or anywhere else for that matter. Is the fact that congress has the power of the purse, and they have delayed the infrastructure projects for more than a year now. If America got moving with infrastructure and dropped the value of the dollar a little bit. It would be ” economic problem solved “. So we can blame the fed and bankers. But the real blame is the 535 do nothing losers in government. There are still a few good ones, but the majority are blood sucking vermin scumbags. Congress is the REAL problem!
And gold might be undervalued, but it’s going down before it’s going up.
Sorry to disagree but living for over 30 years in Asia/SA has taught me that in times of trouble people will still run for the USD. I hold gold too but the USD is still king Fiat.
Chris,
It’s true the dollar is still king fiat. However, commodity transactions around the globe had to be cleared using USD. That is no longer the case. Commodity transactions are cleared using other currencies now. Clearing commodity transactions using USD globally was what made the USD the global reserve currency. And that no longer applies in the real world. It’s just that people don’t realize it yet.
Talk about getting a chart wrong…..
I just read an article about open interest in gold versus the number of ounces of physical gold that are available at Comex. Admittedly, this is a very interesting chart (see linked story) as there are apparently some 542 paper claims for each ounce in the vault and the chart has clearly gone parabolic to vertical.
(That means by the way that the chart is about to crash and go in reverse).
So what we should learn from that knowledge is that the number of paper claims to an ounce of gold is going to fall dramatically or the number of ounces held a Comex is going to surge. That is what the chart measures after all.
But the guy who wrote the article (Byron King) had another take altogether. He just presumes there will be a default and that gold price will soar into the thousands of dollars per ounce……and well….we better get us some of that stuff soon or we will be out of luck.
Somehow Byron has overlooked that a chart reversal of Comex open interest does not imply anything at all about the price of gold or a default. But what it does tell us is that people are going to trade less of it and more metal will flow back into Comex warehouses.
And to me that can only mean one thing…..that the price of gold will take a dive and all those erstwhile speculators and buyers are going to evaporate as warehouse stocks fill again.
But hey, that’s just me reading a chart. Maybe the smart gold bugs can sort out my thinking.
There’s a ‘very dangerous situation’ taking place in the Comex’s gold vault — Business Insider
http://www.businessinsider.com/comex-vault-doesnt-have-enough-gold-2016-5
Anyone want to bet that when open interest hits 666 that gold crashes and that chart takes a 35% dive in a single year? No…..you don’t want to bet? Because I can tell you factually that every time a chart goes vertical it only ends one way….and that is with a round trip right back to its mean.
You figure out what that information is really telling us!
Oh, you poor gold bugs. Bought too high again…
I don’t believe that chart has any actual meaning regarding COMEX default. Any contract can (and will) be settled with cash (with maybe a premium) if physical gold cannot be delivered.
Additionally, I believe that the COMEX has ALMOST NOTHING to do with people actually purchasing gold. This is done through dealers, bullion storage entities, and the ETFs. The GLD ETF has had a +5.5% increase in holdings, in the past 10 trading days.
Correct Brian. It is misleading as hell for those guys to say that chart is a warning about a default when the chart is actually telling us that a collapse in open interest (or a large rise in gold holdings) is the only outcome available to satisfy the requirements of mean reversion off a parabolic rise on the chart.
Seems to me, Bird, that you correctly identified two alternatives to the ‘force majeure’ option, but that all three are equally logical possibilities.
you waste way too much time on here birdman. go outside and get some fresh air. all your posting on here means absolutely nothing.
Got your little bubble burst today hunh? 🙂
Well keep up the fantasy you live in Ronny. Its usually more enjoyable than the real world. But if you want to disagree with me on how to read a chart you are going to have to make a bigger effort than that.
What Byron King wrote in his article about Comex and open interest is pure fluff and he has come to all the wrong conclusions by misreading the data. The guy has totally missed the obvious which is what a reversion to the mean on that chart really implies.
What I can tell you is this…..It is not about price because it is not a price chart.
What I can’t tell you is why gold will flow back into Comex nor why open interest will fall. And whether Comex settles in cash or settles in gold makes no difference whatsoever because that information is NOT present on the chart nor in what it is intended to convey.
But you go man. Believe the dream. Just don’t cry when none of it pans out as predicted by the dreamy-eyed high school analysts.
I was commenting on your obsession with KER, half the posts on here are yours. Its getting annoying. You obviously don’t invest in Precious Metals so why do you spend all your day on KER which covers predominantly precious metals. Seems like a waste of time. Your advice has proven to be very bad. My portfolio is up 600% since December. not saying this to brag but I definitely didnt get there taking your advice. I just wish KER had a ignore feature so I could filter your posts out.
“Half the posts are yours” is quite an exaggeration as I am sure your 600% gain is also a little fib. So why not make a real contribution Champ instead of just writing in pointless complaints.
I can hardly recall a single post from you that might qualify as “content”.
600% might not be as big a stretch as you might think.
a little combo I know, gng up about 700% move to ipt for the double, is pretty awesome.
So 600%s were there for the taking. Had to have eyes on the screen for months tho.
and had to know shares selling for 1/2 cent, I actually mentioned people should find one of those.
I know you got it but you might have been a tad early with the drop call.
Of course bb. It was possible for those who bought at the absolute bottom and then timed a perfect exit off the top. But almost nobody does that in reality. Even our local self-congratulatory mouthpiece does not claim to much more than a triple on his gold stock portfolio.
Closer to the truth though…..most gold bugs got left in the dust. They watched the charts for 4 long years and could not pull the trigger when the time came because they had already been burned so many times before.
Your right Bird, but as for the stupendus self. lol I bought gng at .5 cents as I could see it wasnt falling further, had to be watching it tho and be familiar with it, I made alot with it last bull.
Same as ipt, if familiar AND ya figured it was moving up at under 30 cents, it was a double. AND at 11 cents some people familiar would be asking themselves if the buy time arrived.
I was familiar as I actually held it for the entire drop from 2011?
Not bragging or trying to say Im somehow good at the markets, remember it took about 4-5 years watching to cacth that, there are others.
Actually, thats a great example as to why Im not into the 2-3% gains traders are after, that play is what Im after, now I get to lose it slowly trading over time and hope I have enough for the next one I catch, lol
Oh, forgot to mention, BOB, in his book explains to buy when nobody wants it, gng at .5 cents was a great example, and look at the gain.
credit where credit is due, Mathew mentioned a few times, the big move is right at the beginning.
That stuff from those under a penny shares can be incredible.
They are never mentioned around here either, people are more into trading.
Hello Bird,
Hope all’s well.
My 2cts on something you mentioned which picked my curiosity.
Quote:
“For some reason the gold bugs who are always so knowledgeable about gold and silver, never seem to get around to noticing the obvious which is that precious metals have been through a few unprecedented speculative bubbles in the past 100 years.”
You are right about the bubble in gold/silver over the past 100yrs.
To quote the obvious, there has also been, over the past 100yrs, several bubbles in equities, arts, collectibles, and real-estate (here and there), and I believe even gvt bonds would qualify. One could also throw in currencies as having their own bubbles once in a while.
—> So I apologize, but I am not sure I understood the point you were trying to convey in the first place.
On another (related) topic, I appreciated your angle on mean reversion. Fwiw, I tend to agree to this concept myself when looking at asset classes.
However, it seems that the analysis of people who have looked at gold over a 200yr timeframe suggest to them that gold is NOT in a secular bear market, as you opine.
Avi Gilburt – who gets so much disdain/hatred on Kereport by some who typically hardly know anything about his work – could discuss this point if he reads the blog over the WE. Otherwise, he has written articles on the matter, which you could refer to, in case you haven’t.
—> So I am not saying you are wrong, and Avi is right. What I am just saying that despite the valid, broad perspective you try to get (by looking at long(er) time frames), some others who have looked at long-ER time frames seem to disagree with your assessment of the SECULAR bear market.
I am not as gifted as Avi to look at Elliot Wave patterns over 2 yrs, let alone 2 centuries. What it seems to me however, is that the 2011-2015 decline in gold price was a CYCLICAL bear (I’ve referred to this in the past on KER, and I’ve not changed my views on it) and that, EVEN IF gold makes a lower low in US dollar terms in the next few months, it is still on a SECULAR bull. And IMHO, the PM stocks are telling you that the renewed bull is alive: it’s just that it’s not front page of newspapers.
Luv’
LPG
LPG, have you ever seen one of those charts of the DOW that some mutual fund dealers or bank brokers used to put on their office walls? It is pure chart-magic that makes the stock markets look like they have been in one long continuous rise for the past 100 years.
Its a g great sales gimmick of course but it hardly conveys the severity of the rise and fall in the markets as they actually happened. But that chart would leave some people with the impression US equities have been in a 100 year bull market.
Have US Equities been in a 100 year secular bull market though? Or is this just a way of manipulating words and ideas to convince the rubes of something that is not quite the truth?
Getting back to gold….it is in a bull market when it is generally on the rise. And it is in a secular bull market when the trend is extended covering years (even decades) rather than shorter periods of time within a larger trend.
But would you say that gold is in a 100 year secular bull because it is worth more in dollars today than it was in 1916? Probably not. We have to keep our heads screwed on here and talk common sense.
The camp of fools who want to sell you all things precious are just like that broker showing you a 100 year DOW chart that proves stocks never really decline all that much in the big picture and are therefore in a perpetual bull market. They are playing games with words and backing them up with graphs that are deceptive.
So lets try to discern truth from lies here for a second.
When you have an asset that rises for many years, then ceases to rise anymore and then proceeds to fall all the way back to the price point from which it started then you can conclusively state that the bull market has ended.
That is what I told you about Precious Metals and I proved it with three charts.
So the secular bull is all the years of the rise and the secular bear is all the years of the decline. You don’t need a lower-low to prove a secular bear has happened. It is more than sufficient that you got a full retrace of price because that shows you that everything above the starting price on the chart was the period of speculative excess.
When it completes then both the bull and bear have ended. How much more simple can it get? So lets not play with words. If I throw a ball in the air it is only on a positive incline as long as momentum carries it higher. When that stops it is going to experience negative effects called gravity. When it hits ground both effects have concluded.
The implication of cyclical behavior in gold (promoted so heavily by the bugs) suggests that the drop in price would be arrested somewhere along the falling trajectory and the bull market would then continue by reasserting itself.
That factually DID NOT HAPPEN with silver or platinum. And by inference therefore it will not happen with gold either.
In the case of silver, price has already returned to within just a few dollars of the beginning point of its sharp rise since 2008. Cyclicality has been nullified and there was no continuation of the multi-year bull market. Instead there was a nearly perfect reversion to the mean that just has a little further to go before it is fully complete.
The charts prove those points LPG so I probably don’t need to labour the argument too much. But If you want to debate the point further then please bring something concrete that we can use to discuss it.
“So I apologize, but I am not sure I understood the point you were trying to convey in the first place”. ~~~ LPG
—————————-
The point is that a hallmark of the gold market is that it is punctuated by periods of excessive speculation followed by long periods of low volatility. The price pattern does not follow a gradual slope indicating inflation adjustments which are more readily apparent on real estate charts or the stock market(as two examples).
So the nature of the market is a combination of extreme boom and bust but there is indeed a median price line that can still be established. Above that line and gold is overpriced historically. Below that line and gold is under-priced.
In determining the fair market value of gold we need to reference its median price as that is the only objective marker we have at our disposal to judge if gold is within or outside of the long term trend channel.
At this time gold remains above the median line and since it is currently experiencing a reversion to its mean then we can safely conclude that it is still over priced and secondly that it has further to fall before the next secular bull market can begin.
You would think this to be obvious to most market analysts but sadly it is not. Instead they seem blindly insistent that gold is in the process of embarking on a new bull market even before the chart completes its life cycle.
The popular idiocy in this regard is just baffling to me. Did everyone suddenly forget how the market functions? The larger trend remains in a decline (also known as a bear market). It is called a “secular bear market” because it has run for several years already and will run longer yet before it completes its cycle by falling back to its median price line (at the minimum).
As an aside LPG, I am not just “a little bit” sure of myself on this subject. So I don’t mince my words on this subject and hedge my bets so later I can say I “called it” no matter what happens.
You need to understand I am 100% confident about what I am saying. Gold has NOT yet hit its final bottom……. Gold is NOT currently experiencing the start of a new bull market……. and Gold prices WILL fall lower than the prior lows set in December of 2015 before this bear trend has completed.
On every one of those points I remain unequivocal and cannot be swayed. I think you will see over the coming months that I have been correct all along despite the many sirens and so-called experts in opposition to me.
So we will just have to let time and the primary trend do their work.
Certitude whether in religion, politics or financial forecasting BM is always ill-advised. …Something about the guy who was dead, dead right as he went along but being just as dead as though he were wrong. Best, A
Certitude is not a trait that is only only exhibited by me. Not by a long shot Reverend. As you no doubt are aware there is an equal certitude among the bulls that they are correct and I am on the wrong side of the trade.
The only difference here is that 98% of the people think this is a new bull market and on that score I strongly suspect that all of them will be wrong. In my small club of the 2% we are represented by the popular analysts Jeffry Currie of Goldman, Martin Armstrong, Cyclesman Tim Woods and the ever controversial Harry Dent.
Those four guys actually take the time to understand and read historical charts and established patterns. The other 98% are just part of the herd following along behind each others arses and thinking they are going in the right direction!
I rather prefer the view that I get going the opposite direction.
Bird:
Martin Armstrong said in 2011 that gold would be $5000 in December of 2015. Harry Dent was the guy who predicted 35,000 on the Dow in 2000. You might want to skip some of the gurus you follow.
Armstrong says the government should cancel all taxes and just print money. We can count on them to get it right.
Yea, Right
Thanks Bob. I am not a follower of anyone actually however we cannot discount the substantial contributions some individuals have made to the understanding of the economics and how it is analyzed. Whether that is ideas promoted by Harry Dent in his study of demographics or Martin Armstrong’s cycle theories and PI. Both those guys are brilliant in my opinion so I won’t be looking to focus on a few bad market timing or price calls and then later dispense with everything else they offered. You know, I have heard this kind of reasoning before. You mention Harry Dent and the goofs come out of the woodwork to tell you how wrong he was about DOW 35,000 but those same guys have almost no idea at all about Dent’s excellent work and analysis on how the Baby Boomers impacted on housing, stocks, bonds and commodities. Several guys on this site are quite adept at that style so that they knock down everything one of us writes by pointing directly to a mistake or two a well known person made to prove your post was meaningless. Matthew is the usual suspect as if he has anything at all to offer that is more valuable. LPG also just did the same thing this morning. Their focus is all wrong in my opinion but what they are really doing is trying to show I am making a mistake as if showing a little respect for guys who are obviously genius is an error. Lets give credit where its due.
Bird,
To quote you:
” Matthew is the usual suspect as if he has anything at all to offer that is more valuable.
LPG also just did the same thing this morning.”
I am not sure you understood the point I tried to make Bird about J. Currie and M. Armstrong.
Let’s rewind a sec.
You took 4 analysts that, in your opinion, were in your camp of lower lows / secular bear.
I just kindly pointed out that 1 of them – Jeff Curie – is not calling for lower lows while the other one – Martin – clearly has lower lows still in mind BUT thinks (IMHO) that gold is still in a secular bull, but maybe interestingly, doesn’t have a pristine track record when it comes to gold.
So I just added a bit of perspective. And I also mentioned this to “help you” coz I thought that your views on what those 2 currently believe, when it comes to gold, is a bit misplaced/off track. That’s all.
Now, if you want to go on a self-rant… go ahead… On this one, I think you’re definitely gonna find yourself alone ! 🙂
Luv’
LPG
Birdman,
Thank you again for taking the time, as I do value your input.
You noted the following re: certain analysts:
” The only difference here is that 98% of the people think this is a new bull market and on that score I strongly suspect that all of them will be wrong. In my small club of the 2% we are represented by the popular analysts Jeffry Currie of Goldman, Martin Armstrong, Cyclesman Tim Woods and the ever controversial Harry Dent.”
Let me give you my personal perspective on what I BELIEVE two of them within your list currently think of gold, as I do tend to think that I follow their views.
1) Jeff Currie: (a brilliant mind in my book)
* His latest revised call on gold was published c.1 week ago.
* Jeff’s latest call on gold resulted in an increase of his price targets on the metal on 3 different time frames by $100-$150/Oz each time, if I am not mistaken.
*** UPDATE FROM ME ON THIS LAST POINT ***
Actually, I just double checked the figures so, fwiw, here they are
(article URL: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-10/goldman-closes-short-gold-recommendation-45-loss-will-continue-buying-gold-its-clien ):
“As a result, we reduce the downside to our gold price forecast, raising the 3/6/12 month forecast profile to $1,200/1,180/1,150/oz from $1,100/1,050/1,000/oz. Our new year average price forecasts are $1,202/1,150/1,150/oz from $1,124/1,000/1,050/oz. ”
* I will kindly note that NONE of Jeff’s revised price targets (up to 12mths down the line) call for gold to be trading below $1,150/Oz
==> So if “you go” by Jeff’s calls… well… his current/latest views don’t seem to imply lower lows for gold. I understand things can change… but again, so far, based on a maximum 12mths horizon, Jeff is not calling for lower lows in gold.
2) Martin Armstrong:
My understanding of M.A’s current views on gold is that he is STILL calling for lower lows on gold (my understanding is that he expects the lows to be struck in Q1 17) BUT he still sees gold in a secular bull market.
===> So if “you go” w. M.A’s views, he is calling, as you do, for lower lows BUT he still sees gold in a secular bull market.
As an aside on M.A, as much as I respect his pedegree and intellect, I SIMPLY NOTICE that Martin was NOT accurate on his gold top in 2011:
a) he was shy of the top by c. $100…. and then
b) my understanding, based on reading some of his articles back then was (unless I am mistaken) that he implied gold was going > $2000. Not exactly the best of calls, in my book.
c) finally, I will note that although I really respect M.A’s achievements and intellect, I remind you he was calling in Q4 15 for gold to make its final bottom in Q1 16….. [dot… dot… dot].
I will stop here.
I just wanted to give you my personal understanding on what 2 of the analysts you picked up currently think.
I believe that where you and I would disagree the most is that you think 98% of the people are BULLISH gold and to some extent… I suspect you probably think 98% of “investors” are onboard.
I would argue, based on discussions I have w. professionals in the industry, that there is still PLENTY (a word I have used this week in another post) of capital on the sideline that is STILL NOT deployed into gold.
And, in my book, that money on the sideline is the fuel that will keep this gold market on a bullish posture for the next 3 yrs – although, and I repeat myself, I have no issue in seeing the potential for lower lows for the BULLION – BUT not for the stocks as exemplified by the ETFs. But again, that, in itself, in my book, would not nullify/negate what I still view as a secular bull market for the metal.
To put it more simply: I have no issue to think that gold will make lower lows, but this, if it occurs, will not, I believe, be accompanied by lower lows for the stocks, as exemplified by the ETFs (GDX/GDXJ)
FWIW, the 20yr timeframe of the gold chart you look at on Finviz.com is a little to short for my taste to be able to tag bull and bear markets on a secular basis. But that’s just me. If you think 20Yrs is enough for you, all’s good.
*******
FWIW, I will provide below some food for thought on a matter that I’ve discussed w. Richard/Doc this week and that I had started to touch on w. Cory.
We were supposed to record something on the matter for the WE, but guess other priorities overtook it. 🙂 🙂 🙂
So let’s start with basics….
1) I am confident you will agree that what moves markets are N-O-T fundamentals but LIQUIDITY. (for those who disagree w. that statement, sorry but I can’t help: it’s Stan Druckenmiller 101 -> read about it)
2) So if liquidity is what REALLY moves markets, MAYBE one good way to spot a new bull market is a sudden revival of liquidity, right ?
3) Consequently – thank you Jordan Roy Byrne for bringing that perspective a few weeks ago – I find very interesting the material increase in COMEX gold’s COT open interest levels – esp. in an historical context (read: 2001-2002, 2008-2009).
Again, that was just food for thought.
Luv’ as always,
LPG
So let me get this right. Armstrong cannot make the call right according to you and Currie changed his outlook via a ZeroHedge article you read…..so therefore that leaves me, Tim Woods and Harry Dent?
Wow. All alone again!
Guess its 99% of the bugs in the the bull camp for gold and 1% of us in the minority camp who hold an entirely different outlook.
Lucky for us we won’t have long to wait for an answer on where gold is going. Sorry LPG….but this is not a new bull market in my books. Not unless or until gold can stage a legitimate breakout.
Bird,
Don’t worry…
You are not alone (w. Tim Woods and Harry Dent) nor in the 1% camp.
There are plenty plenty plenty more people on your side and you forget to count or are not aware of. You guys are much much much muuuuuuuuuuuuuuuch larger than 1% – thankfully.
Luv’
LPG
Just so you know……there is no LUV between you and I. Maybe you can cool it on the romantic angle.
As recently as two weeks back the sentiment readings on GDX and GDXJ had hit levels of 96% bulls as reported by Gary via Sentiment Trader. So it was only partly tongue in cheek that I apply the arbitrary number of 99% and suggest I am in the lonely 1% camp.
Precious metals buying and investing is now being driven almost exclusively by classic herd behavior. The so -called madness of crowds. I really don’t know how much higher prices might go as a result but we should all know how this will all turn out. (Just as it always does I suspect when we such extremes in market emotion).
The elastic just has to get stretched far enough before it inevitably snaps back. There will be profit taking soon enough though. And there will be the usual bag holders whose money gets stranded at the top as distribution hands-off stocks that rose too far too fast to the late comers.
Its good drama to watch. So I get a real laugh at the guys suddenly waxing poetic on this market like they have discovered new love. At such times even normal people lose their sense of reason and forget all the basics.
But there is plenty of time left for another teaching moment. I just hate to have to say later “I told you so” but of course you know I can be counted on for that.
Bird,
It’s ok if you don’t love me.
I Love you irrespectively. I can’t help it.
Mwaaaaaaahhhhh
LPG
Bird,
Thank you for your 3 detailed responses.
I understand your perspective and how you see things now.
If there is a link to a gold chart you can provide so that I can look at what you see to draw the conclusions that you draw re: what you view as still a secular bear market of the gold price, I’m game.
Best as always, and thank you again for taking the time of the 3 responses.
LPG
Any monthly chart will do just fine LPG. I have posted these often enough and they are readily available to anyone who wants to examine the behavior of price over time.
Silver and Platinum are good proxies for gold since they are both precious and both are monetary metals. What I am gathering is evidence to show what gold will do based on the obvious patterns shown by the other metals. Since both are experiencing a full retrace of price then it is easy to conclude gold will follow eventually (unless it is different this time).
You really only need to answer that one question to satisfy yourself about the overarching direction and trend.
Do you really think it’s different this time?
Take a hard look at the following chart LPG. If you are unable to discern that the secular bull market in silver (and by implication) the bull in precious metals ended in 2011 then you probably need to have all your assumptions examined at the same time you are getting new prescription eye wear.
The Secular Bull in silver ended in 2011. We are in a bear market that has NOT hit bottom yet. This is silver on a monthly chart. Everything above the 10 dollar line is speculation and excess.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m1
Bird,
Thanks for bringing up the silver chart.
I would argue that to get an “improved perspective” on it, adding 20yrs of pricing history would help. Richard/Doc mentioned that to me about 2 weeks ago. And I’m glad he did.
Looking at a silver chart from since the 1970’s… one might not necessarily draw the same conclusions as you do/did.
It doesn’t mean that you will be proven wrong on your views: it just means that if I look at a longer time frame than only 1992-2016 , I can potentially come to the conclusion that silver will not re-test $10. But because you look at a 20yr chart for silver, in case you haven’t done it already, I humbly suggest you put some technical indicators on the monthly chart… I think they provide a perspective that I will qualify as “interesting”.
Luv’
LPG
The bull market in precious metals started unofficially in 2001. I do not need an older chart to determine if we are in a bull or bear market on this current cycle.
If you look at a silver chart from 1976-2016, you will see a HUGE cup & handle formation.
Bird,
I know you feel alone/with(in) the 1% on your call.
This is how I feel about your situation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pAyKJAtDNCw
🙂 🙂 🙂
Luv’
LPG
Hello Bob (Moriarty),
Hope all’s well with you.
It’s always a pleasure for me to read your views.
As B rightly put it above “You must understand that most investors are dreamers.”
Most voters are too – otherwise, how come we have so many incompetents elected and then reelected ?
Keep spreading the “words of wisdom” 🙂 🙂 🙂
Best as always,
LPG
“You must understand that most investors are dreamers.” Most voters are too – otherwise, how come we have so many incompetents elected and then reelected ?
LPG – both issues are products of a truth unwinding for all to see.
A2A with Brent Johnson’s idea that the banks are operating through their dark pools to accumulate metal and miners, while shorting the metal on the various exchanges to suppress prices during this accumulation phase they seem to be undertaking.
“The Confessions of Congressman X.” Daily Mail…’Screw the next generation’ and ‘Harry Reid’s a pompous a**’: Democratic congressman writes Anonymous tell-all book slamming ‘nation of naive, self-absorbed sheep’ as he admits he never reads bills he votes on.
http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/7626/sprott-money-weekly-wrap-andrew-maguire?page=2#comments
Markedtofuture,
Good post and good link. I like Andrew Maguire. He’s pretty much on target.
LPG Both you and Bob M are inspirational! Best, A
Thank you for your kind words Andrew.
Hope all is well on your side.
Best as always,
LPG
Agreed Archdeacon (!) Andrew. LPG and Bob M. are class acts……and characters.
LPG:
You don’t write, you don’t call. You have forgotten me. No Xmas card for you this year.
🙂
Hello Bob,
That was funny.
Good to see you in great spirit !
Best to you, and thanks again for your lights/words of wisdom on KER.
LPG
Politics have always been about the first duty of every candidate and that is to get themselves elected. Poverty is a sure fire issue for all candidates. Prosperity is the sure fire issue for Republicans and Democrats.
Along comes Donald Trump and he too talks about prosperity, but this time he has changed the paradigm. So much so that political insiders like Jeff Diest, and Glen Downs, can’t understand the man because they are the insiders pretending to look outside, where have we heard that before but they can’t understand what is affecting the middle and lower classes. Trump is in the upper class but he understands human nature having faced failure and recovery both in his personal life and in business many times. Academics and the privileged few will never understand the man on the street and his problems unless they have been there and done that. DT
I agree with you.
+1 DT.
Best,
LPG
+ 2 spot on DT.
1 hour & 10 minutes of your time………………………………………………..!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-05-14/brexit-movie
Winston Churchill god bless his soul, realized that the measure of a man was estimated by how many enemies he had created during a crisis, I hope the British people can look at the past and see the future. Churchill was never a man to be cajoled by the media and the press barons. Brexit will be a defining moment in British history as was The Battle Of Britain, and if they don’t stand against globalism, Britain will be a footnote in history. DT
Thanks for the link Tony which I and others will view in due course. By the way Boris has gone up in my estimation 100%, and I admire all Tories who stand up to the creepy Cameron.
Pity you see it that way Reverend because David Cameron will be recalled in history as one of the best Prime Ministers your country ever produced.
Bird…I am assuming that your above statement is your attempt at sarcastic humour.
But if you believe what you just wrote…Then you are a fecking fool.
I am dead serious. Sorry if my views don’t align with yours.
I’ve just seen the whole movie Tony – Truly excellent! By the way ignore BM’s comments below about Cameron. I now know for a fact that he BM is completely unhinged!!! Best to you, Andrew
PS Not forgetting his love for Hillary as well! Just who’s payroll is BM on? lol!
We all have opinions Rectory man….and yours stinks.
As do yours!!
Andrew…Check my reply to the bird…above.
Bird…Take the time to watch the movie…
Then come back to us with a sensible comment , if you can about Cameron & Brexit………..I dough you have the ability to do as you seem to have little understanding of either Cameron or what brexit is all about.
Its propaganda.
https://www.rt.com/op-edge/343009-nigeria-delta-oil-ecocide/
The only thing I can do about these guys is not buy their shares, I dont buy from their retailers and hope they dont refine what I do buy.
Shell and Chevron that is.
Will savers be continually crucified by central bank criminals hell bent on rewarding debt profligacy, or will the reckless finally have their day of reckoning, and the rigged SPX finally crash down to reality?
Hopefully this 2+ year stalemate resolves soon and not with a 30 year slow descent into hell like Japan.
In the end Dan, the criminally greedy will always come to reap what they sow. The tragedy is the havoc they wreak during the interlude. Best, A
As Bob M likes to point out there are no victors in war only losers, Americans still think they won the Second World War. That war was started after Hitler drove his army into Poland in September of 1939. Czechoslovakia had already been taken by The Germans in a bloodless coup the year before and Austria had been annexed prior to that. After an armistice was signed by the allies in 1945 at Yalta, Russia had become The Soviet Union and was in control of far more countries than Hitler had taken to start The Second World War which the allies claimed to be victorious. DT
True DT, arrogance on the west part to say the least.
I wonder just how much history got re written.
Today alot of people believe that Russia invaded Crimea, tell a lie loud enough and long enough.
Ive found missinfo on the internet (shocker) but eventually people wont believe books as they will be different from the net.
Imagine how easy re writing history will be then.
Dick – continuing your theme into the present. An interesting point of view I have read is that the EU is a continuation of German ambitions and expansion by other means. The writer of the article sees the current confrontation between a German-dominated EU and Russia as a continuation of the hostility of the last century. In this context the German desire to create an EU army is a cause for concern.
Good Point HH, The Germans have always been militaristic, and I would have to say they have a lot in common with The US. DT
What was the name & ticker of that company that used Microbes to find uranium at depths up to 1000 meters ?
Uravan Minerals. Uvr.v
Sorry.. UVN.v
So anyway……the latest news today is that President Maduro of Venezuela is threatening to seize the factories in his country that have been closed due to a shortage of dollars needed for essential supplies and then jail the factory owners for failing to produce!
(First you withhold the hard currency then you steal the factory because it shuts down)
Which just proves that his brand of socialism is really more about theft than creating the conditions for a workers paradise. Perhaps that nation really is going to descend into a form of Communism where all production is eventually state controlled.
Anyway, the latest news is about the beer company. Since they are unable to import barley they cannot make beer. Well that’s as good a reason as Maduro needs to imprison the owners and steal their assets.
Plus he is really pissed that he and his friends can’t get a few cold ones when the mood hits. So they sat around the table (sober) and hatched the latest plan. They would declare a state of economic emergency and then use that as a pretext to nationalize even more of the few surviving business’s for themselves.
Pure genius for him and his cronies as they fire up the plant with fresh hops from abroad while the real owners stew in the Federal jailhouse because the government would not give the the dollars they needed to keep production going.
And don’t kid yourself and think this was all by accident. The refusal to supply dollars for hops was thought out well in advance with the specific goal of seizing the beer production facilities and all its assets.
And why would they do that? Well because the alcohol business pays so well of course. Plus its one of the few remaining domestic factories that still operate and generate income each month.
It is the ultimate cynicism of a corrupt government. And all the while they blame the USA for fomenting a coup as they prepare to steal what little real wealth generating capacity remains in that impoverished country.
PIGS!!!! Thieve!!! Liars!!!!!
Venezuela’s President Threatens to Seize Factories With Halted Production
http://sputniknews.com/latam/20160515/1039642817/venezuela-factories-president-jail.html
I agree with the general drift of your comments on Venezuela, Birdman. But of course, anyone who pays attention has known Venezuela has been at the boiling point for a long time. Shortages were already severe over two years ago.
But it’s one thing to recognize a crisis, it’s a very different thing to understand it in detail. Your comment above is wild speculation to put it mildly, most likely only loosely related to reality.
A goverment, already on the ropes, is going to provoke a beer shortage so that they can take over the beer industry?!? Really?
There have been widespread shortages for years. A good friend was there for New Years, 2014. Even 5-star hotels didn’t have functioning A/C due to lack of parts. The only part of the country she saw that was more or less normal was Canaima/Angel Falls because of the large influx of foreign tourists with foreign capital there.
I lived there in the 2004-5 time-frame. A couple years after a coup that was most definitely backed by the US. My conclusion after my time there? Agnosticism. So many lies on all sides that one would really have to study in depth to get a clue.
Neat comment GH.
Obviously I liked the “a coup that was most definitely backed by the US”.
Neat to hear it from someone that had first hand contact instead of from books.
I guess there is too much corruption and threats, but ya gotta wonder why the s american countries dont band together more to resist the americans, create their own currency maybe.
Any time a legally elected goverment, disliked by the US, is overthrown in a coup and the US gov’t recognizes the coup gov’t instantly, the conclusion is pretty obvious. Honduras (2007?) is another.
But I don’t really know any more about the specifics of that incident than I would from just reading books. What I do know more about from spending time there is the way the culture works, that factions, etc. If nothing else, it helps with smell-testing nonsense like Bird’s post above.
*the* factions
Smell testing GH? Holy shit are you just one naive little puppy? You think you can figure this out by being a tourist there? Maybe dig a little into history on the subject first. Anyway, its in the article that was posted. I did not make it up.
You’re too much Birdman.
Your long comment above is about the equivalent of a high-schooler reading the Cliff’s notes and wikipedia and then writing a book report.
I lived in Venezuela. Your comments make it clear that your ‘knowledge’ is purely armchair. Or am I wrong? Your comments on Africa, on the other hand, are interesting. It sounds as if you actually know what you’re talking about. But then, I don’t know Africa.
It’s easy enough to bullshit people about things they don’t know. The limitations in your knowledge on this topic are readily apparent to anyone who actually does know something about it.
I guess that Matthew pretty much nailed it above when he called you a BSer. Personally, I don’t appreciate people who pretend to know things they do not know, or who wildly overestimate their level of certainty.
And as far as your attacks on Matthews charting ability? Again, anyone who knows charting can only roll their eyes.
Just because I have it saved
Illegality has never stopped the US from invading other countries. Countries bombed/invaded since 1945:
China 1945-46
Korea 1950-53
China 1950-53
Guatemala 1954
Indonesia 1958
Cuba 1959-60
Guatemala 1960
Belgian Congo 1964
Guatemala 1964
Dominican Republic 1965-66
Peru 1965
Laos 1964-73
Vietnam 1961-73
Cambodia 1969-70
Guatemala 1967-69
Lebanon 1982-84
Grenada 1983-84
Libya 1986
El Salvador 1981-92
Nicaragua 1981-90
Iran 1987-88
Libya 1989
Panama 1989-90
Iraq 1991
Kuwait 1991
Somalia 1992-94
Bosnia 1995
Iran 1998
Sudan 1998
Afghanistan 1998
Yugoslavia – Serbia 1999
Afghanistan 2001
Libya 2011
Guess we could add Ukraine now.
This list represents 30 million dead, 30 million, and we are the good guys, lol
Only half what the British got, 60 million for those guys, and they did it the classic way, starvation.
But they’re good guys too so what the heck.
60 million took them a hundred years or so I think, but the great Churchill’s decisions were good for 4-5 million himself.
Is that why Hitler thought the british were “just like us?”
For any history buffs out there.
Thanks for the contribution GH!
I especially enjoyed how you skirted the whole topic while using your entire post casting stones. Very cute. Getting back to the topic though, living in a place does not always generate insights into an economy or how the political system operates. Look at the American public as a perfect example. Most are clearly uninformed. So unless you have an observation of merit to offer on the subject of Venezuela I will just assume you learned nothing about the place while you were there except perhaps where to buy a cold beer or get a good meal.
In any event you have wasted your time objecting to me. It is US Intelligence that stated that country could face collapse. But hey man….I guess you know more than them too.
Sheesh!
“So unless you have an observation of merit”. Would creating wild theories and presenting them as something I know satisfy you?
You’re absolutely right that being somewhere doesn’t mean one knows a damn thing. 100% valid point. But I did and do pay attention. Some things I know about Venezuela with a high degree of certainty, some with little, and I’m agnostic about a lot. So if you want an observation of merit about Venezuela: “Be careful who you believe about Venezuela–there are liars and blowhards on all sides.”
On a couple of things we can agree: 1) Venezuela is in very bad shape; 2) This could have an impact on oil.
“you have wasted your time objecting to me”. As far as I can tell, it’s always a waste of time. I’ve noticed your plaintive comments at times that no one responds to your long posts. But then, you yourself have proudly proclaimed yourself to be arrogant. If you wonder why people don’t want to engage your posts, look in the mirror.
OMG!!! You are a Marxist. I should have just guessed from the beginning. Is that why you lived there? To soak up all those positive Socialist vibes? If you have forgotten the original post I wrote was on the topic of the theft of private enterprises by corrupt government.
You have skirted that in every single post even as you spewed bile at me.
So are you a Chauvanista?
Crickets….no answer will be construed as an affirmative.
Could you please just let on next time and it will save me a lot of bother answering you.
To conclude I might be a Marxist or a Chavista is quite a (typical) stretch from anything I’ve said.
You’re the one who has championed socialism before on this comment board, not me. So I hardly feel the need to defend my stance on government theft of private enterprise.
For the record, I prefer small government and private enterprise. That said, Latin America is in serious need of reform. A very small % owns almost everything due to historical factors, and that needs to change. But how? But what if there isn’t a single honest judge or fiscal (DA?) in an entire country? What if the police and military are corrupt from top to bottom? What if the general level of education is dismal? How does needed change come about without equally ugly abuses being committed? Not easy. I have no simple proposal, and after being an interested observer close-up for a dozen or so years, my certainty has diminished rather than grown.
My opinion on the beer issue is simple. You’ve got a country with widespread shortages for years now. That it’s hitting beer now is not such a surprise, and lacking hard evidence to show this is a plot to nationalize the alcohol industry, I wouldn’t read too much into it. Other than the fact, of course, that when beer goes from being cheaper than water to unavailable, in a country that loves (lives?) to party, things are nearing some sort of climax.
Maduro? I don’t believe he has any long-term vision for what he is trying to accomplish in Venezuela. He’s a totally unqualified, fairly new president, who only got there by association with Chavez. Now he’s dealing with the mess Chavez made, flailing to keep things under control and remain in power. But without a clue about how to run a country or an economy. And of course, probably stealing what he can while he is there for ‘old age security’.
Chavez was the real motor for Venezuelan politics for 15 years, while Maduro seems to be more of a placeholder until whatever follows Chavismo appears. Whether Chavez was a scoundrel or a well-meaning reformer each person will decide for himself. But even if you give him the benefit of the doubt, that doesn’t mean he knew how to accomplish his aims. Ill conceived socialist efforts left the country a complete mess, quite aside from possible sabotage from the US (which I personally do believe has been occurring.)
In that context, a carefully crafted long-term plot to nationalize the beer industry just as things are already coming to a head? Sounds silly to me. If I were looking to consolidate power, I wouldn’t be looking to piss off the general populace and take away one of their pacifiers. I’d be looking to make the big changes necessary to stay in the saddle. But then, you’re the first person I’ve heard accuse Maduro of being bright, let alone an evil genius. Personally, I think it was too late for Maduro even before he got started. Chavez had an opportunity to improve Venezuela, had he invested the oil wealth in ‘teaching people to fish’ and diversifying the economy, rather than ‘giving them fish’. Seems to me he blew it.
That said, Venezuela’s problems go back way before Chavez. The Caracazo was when…1989? Just as in most or all Latin American countries, the very small upper class has been shameless in its avarice and disregard for the masses. The masses in turn, are often irresponsible. The resulting social problems will take generations to fix, at best.
The bigger picture in Latin America is the rollback of the wave of leftist regimes that have been in power for the past 10-15 years. Left/right labels don’t matter much, because regardless they mostly produce crap governments, but that’s the scenario right now. Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina, Honduras down. Bolivia and Ecuador remain. Oh, and maybe Cuba, though it looks to be ‘coming in from the cold’. From what I hear, the new rightist regimes in Brazil and Argentina, both with strong ties to the US, are going to make life difficult for Bolivia’s socialist gov’t. Smells like ‘counter-revolution’ to me, and I doubt it’s all just due to internal/domestic dyamics.
Financially…certainly the places I have known for the past 10+ years have seen high inflation, hyper in the case of Venezuela, and very bad in Arg. Credit, which was very difficult to attain 10 years ago, is now very available in places like Colombia and Bolivia. So you’ve got people with a cultural tendency for impulsivity and living for the moment, combined with recent access to credit in a way that their cultures have never had before. So of course a credit crash is likely, but this time it won’t just be governments defaulting on debt, but individuals.
So yes, I will reiterate my initial assessment of your post: wild speculation most likely only loosely related to reality.
Great assessment, GH. I couldn’t agree more about the debt growth in Latin America and I wonder how long it can continue. It will probably be quite a bit longer than most people think – at least in the stronger economies.
Other than your first and last sentences that was a great post GH. Just so you know I appreciate the effort you made today. Keep it up and I am sure we will have a much better dialogue next time around.
Anyway, on the issue of the beer company it is not case sensitive. What I refer to is something much more generalized that I have seen repeated again and again in parts of Africa and the Middle East.
The agenda is obvious as hell even to casual onlookers. The most common outwards signs are that business owners are harassed to the point they cannot easily function. There are typically deliberate efforts made to frustrate business and drive legitimate owners backs to the walls. How its done can come in a thousand different flavours.
The most popular is to find infractions of the law and then have the courts prescribe excessive and burdensome penalties. The object is always the same. It is an avenue to cause economic harm to the individuals firm that causes enterprise owners to fail or default so that their assets can be acquired by others at pennies on the dollar.
The bigger you are the more attention you get. The more profitable you are the more likely it is you will be targeted and attacked. State power over private interests.
Unlike in the West where the governments are beholden to banks, financial interests and the globalists, in less democratically oriented nations there is an active conflict between the political and business elite. Both are threatened by each others power and influence.
Maduro is just following a common pattern here by disempowering those with the economic resources who might one day stand against him. He is eliminating the competition in other words and the message that gets sent to the public is that business is going to be a very big risk to engage in when you know that one day your assets might be seized.
I will give you an example of a story I know personally. Some years back I met a guy in one of these countries I frequent. He had a large plot of open land within his municipality where he conducted manufactures in wood and steel. His family had owned it for years.
Anyway, he decided to sell near retirement and the land was estimated to be worth millions due to its location but instead the municipality intervened and expropriated after creating a new city map with housing and roads overlaid on his acreage.
They paid him the book value of the assessment which was just a tiny fraction of its market worth and then turned around and sold off small plots to the public for substantially more than the original owner was ever intending to get.
It was pure theft as the administrative staff pocketed substantial kickbacks and bribes from would-be buyers who also desired those new small plots for housing development and speculation.
The joke of it all was that once they had made the decision to take the land there was nothing that could be done to stop them. He even applied to be allowed to develop his own property according to the new city plan but was rejected at court and then evicted.
So I am not just talking about a beer company in my post above but rather an entire strategy that takes from one group of private interests and gives to another who has the tools of the law at their disposal. Its a dirty corrupt game and God help you if you are a success in some countries because it could cost your freedom or even your life if you fight back.
Just look what happened to some of the Oligarchs in Russia as another example. Still rotting in prison after having been stripped of their companies and bank accounts because they were deemed to be a threat to the political class.
So its a common theme around the world and across time, GH and its one I can easily recognize from 10,000 miles away. I don’t even need to go there to understand what is happening it is so blatantly obvious. The whole thing stinks to high heaven.
The sooner that government and its Dictatorial leader and his class of cronies are driven from power and an independent Judiciary established under the rules of international law, the better. It is just a matter of time too.
The whole world is watching now. And the pressure is rising.
Well, Birdman, back to how I started the conversation:
“I agree with the general drift of your comments on Venezuela…But it’s one thing to recognize a crisis, it’s a very different thing to understand it in detail.”
And now you confirm the substance of that comment:
“Anyway, on the issue of the beer company it is not case sensitive. What I refer to is something much more generalized.”
Talk about shucking and jiving. Yes, the general principle you describe of politics being used for theft is very common. That doesn’t change the fact that your post on Venezuela was more or less a yarn, loosely related to reality. Had you admitted at the outset that you were actually only applying a generalized notion of how these things work, we would have had a more civil exchange.
Your story about the theft of land you witnessed is interesting. I’ve seen similar things–though maybe not quite that brazen, close to it. So I agree, “So its a common theme around the world and across time”–but it’s much more interesting to hear about things people actually know, rather than application of theory (no matter how valid) to unfamiliar situations. And if it is just theory, at least admit it up front.
As for the dialogue next time around, you do bring some interesting and different points of view, and that’s a good thing. But you provoke, insult, and brag, and apparently take pride in being arrogant. So as I mentioned above, there’s a reason I mostly don’t engage your posts.
A beer company is a specific entity. That part of the discussion was not general. Confiscation of private property by the state is a form of theft and especially where the state was directly involved in the plant closure to begin with. There is no question that was what the story was about from the beginning. This is called putting two and two together GH to make sense of what is happening. You don’t need to be there to know all the details.
But if I need to explain all that to you I will have to assume you are just dense.
Anyway, I still assume you are a Chauvanista since you have been so defensive from the beginning and unwilling to be open minded as a conclusion was drawn. Maybe you have relatives there? Hmmmm?
The more I converse with you the lower my respect goes, so we’ll just leave it at that.
Ditto.
You are just another bug on my windshield.
And a Socialist at that.
Of course it was deliberate GH. Those kinds of governments are known for their methods of stealing productive, profitable enterprises in the name of the people while lining their own pockets with the income that follows.
In Venezuela they have meticulously destroyed piece by piece most of the corporate sphere or nationalized what business was still functional. It has taken years to accomplish and now all that remains are vestiges of the past as industry has been wholesale destroyed leaving the country virtually reliant on just a single industry.
That product is oil of course and nothing else. Last I checked Venezuela had a 96% dependency on crude oil income. It is unprecedented for a country that had at one time been self reliant and reasonably well developed.
Do you really think that has happened by accident and can you honestly doubt that there was a conspiracy of interventions to deprive rightful owners of the assets they had created and built up from scratch?
And then the insanity we heard today was that Maduro planned to seize the few remaining enterprises after the government itself refused to provide the dollars necessary for them to remain in business!
Its classic theft GH. You don’t need to live there to understand how cynical it is.
I will attest to the shortages, I was in Coro, Jan 2013 for 5 days, 40 months ago. Rationing was going on then for corn meal & beans.
WikiLeaks Exposes Newly “Selected” Brazilian President As Puppet For US Intelligence
by Jay Syrmopoulos, Activist Post:
The transparency organization WikiLeaks has exposed acting President Michel Temer, who ascended to the Brazilian presidency after a soft coup deposed President Rousseff, as having been an intelligence informant for the United States.
Found it,……… on sgt report. South American countries targeted by the U.S. are toast.
Think I read awhile back that Venezuela initially resisted an American attempt at over throwing the government, guess we get to see their resolve.
Innocent Until Proven Guilty
Posted May 15th, 2016 at 10:47 AM (CST) by Jim Sinclair & filed under General Editorial.
Dear CIGAs,
In our system, a person is considered innocent until proven guilty.
Here is some information of alleged acts dating back to 2010 to a situation many of you directly experienced and a few even repeated as presented to you in chat rooms and on public websites. My company and I have been hounded by internet trolls directly based on alleged material produced by these alleged acts.
ORDER INSTITUTING ADMINISTRATIVE AND CEASE-AND- DESIST PROCEEDINGS PURSUANT TO SECTION 21C OF THE SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934, SECTIONS 203(f) AND 203(k) OF THE INVESTMENT ADVISERS ACT OF 1940, AND SECTION 9(b) OF THE INVESTMENT COMPANY ACT OF 1940
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Before the SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
SECURITIES EXCHANGE ACT OF 1934 Release No. 77466 / March 29, 2016
INVESTMENT ADVISERS ACT OF 1940 Release No. 4359 / March 29, 2016
INVESTMENT COMPANY ACT OF 1940 Release No. 32059 / March 29, 2016
ADMINISTRATIVE PROCEEDING File No. 3-17184
In the Matter of CHRISTOPHER M. GIBSON, Respondent.
I.
The Securities and Exchange Commission (“Commission”) deems it appropriate and in the public interest that public administrative and cease-and-desist proceedings be, and hereby are, instituted pursuant to Section 21C of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (“Exchange Act”), Sections 203(f) and 203(k) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940 (“Advisers Act”), and Section 9(b) of the Investment Company Act of 1940 (“Investment Company Act”) against Christopher M. Gibson (“Respondent” or “Gibson”).
By the Commission.
Page #11
Brent J. Fields Secretary
Link….https://www.sec.gov/litigation/admin/2016/34-77466.pdf
Spot on, b!
Just because I have it saved
Illegality has never stopped the US from invading other countries. Countries bombed/invaded since 1945:
China 1945-46
Korea 1950-53
China 1950-53
Guatemala 1954
Indonesia 1958
Cuba 1959-60
Guatemala 1960
Belgian Congo 1964
Guatemala 1964
Dominican Republic 1965-66
Peru 1965
Laos 1964-73
Vietnam 1961-73
Cambodia 1969-70
Guatemala 1967-69
Lebanon 1982-84
Grenada 1983-84
Libya 1986
El Salvador 1981-92
Nicaragua 1981-90
Iran 1987-88
Libya 1989
Panama 1989-90
Iraq 1991
Kuwait 1991
Somalia 1992-94
Bosnia 1995
Iran 1998
Sudan 1998
Afghanistan 1998
Yugoslavia – Serbia 1999
Afghanistan 2001
Libya 2011
Guess we could add Ukraine now.
This list represents 30 million dead, 30 million, and we are the good guys, lol
Only half what the British got, 60 million for those guys, and they did it the classic way, starvation.
But they’re good guys too so what the heck.
60 million took them a hundred years or so I think, but the great Churchill’s decisions were good for 4-5 million himself.
Is that why Hitler thought the british were “just like us?”
For any history buffs out there.
Bird has never learned that if you want people to respect you must learn the power of brotherliness. I know, I know, I just wasted my time. DT
LOL — Bingo!!
Brotherliness? Birdman? 😮 Lol…..
Brotherliness? You have been shooting darts at me for the past four years for no reason at all and now you want to be my brother? That’s pretty funny Dick.
American Creek Resources
Thanks Markedtofuture. I saw you post this on Tommy’s site earlier and watched the video. Guess I didn’t realize they were neighbors with Pretium & Seabridge. Cool.
I don’t see how the start to this bull market could look any better…
You have been saying the same thing for 4 years. Maybe this one time you will be right. Broken clock syndrome.
No, you are lying as usual Tweety.
Matthew you forgot to draw the 200wma on your chart 🙂 I wonder why ?! :)Besides that you need a refreshing course of how to draw trendlines.Just saying
Kudos for using the log chart but when it comes to the supporting trendline the line should start from 2/08/2010 bottom.Then all you got to do is draw a parallel resistance trendline.Take my word for it matthew;the chart does not look bullish at all.Btw the 1288 gap on the 10mins chart has closed.Take care buddy.Wish you good luck.
1307.64 is the level that I am watching now.Very important level.Very crucial.
It’s crucial to you and to many others but I am already satisfied with the odds that it will fall.
Btw, Jeff Kern’s SKI system generated a major buy for the miners on 1/25/16 and had this to say about the setup:
“Since the SKI indices’ buy pattern is unique since 1974, this rise is NOT likely to follow the up-and-down pattern of ANY past bull market. A new buy point can only occur after a decline that will eventually occur but cannot be forecast at this time. Jeff IS able to state that if the rise continues over months/years, that SKI will be able to state when a final leg-up is occurring (not an exact top) based upon the index pattern on the prior decline (i.e., a small decline and then a rise signals a final rise, but a larger decline and then a rise is not a major top; objectively defined by the 16-20 and 35-39 indices).”
Don, your confidence is going to get you into trouble if it hasn’t already (I believe it has).
You obviously are not familiar with using pitchforks if you think you can judge my “trendlines” from that chart.
The 200 wma appears on many other charts but the focus here is the fork action.
You need serious chart help if “the chart does not look bullish at all” to you.
Click here:
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:andrews_pitchfork
and scroll down to learn about trigger lines. 😉
matthew maybe we have differant perspectives or else we had differant school in charting.However one of us must be right.Who is the one?People are watching us matthew and I think that they are as curious as we are of what will pan out and who will ultimatley reign supreme in TA.I like challanges matthew.They motivate me and they make me more focused.Having said that I respect your opinion like always.
Don, if you’re drawing trendlines and I’m drawing forks, we can both be right in our application even if the implications of each are different. That is why I take many angles into account and I THINK – something that most technicians consider a no-no. I have made six figures per month this year as a result while many chartists continue to wring their hands in anticipation of the next resistance/confirmation level.
As for which one of us has been right so far, I think the answer is clear based on our comments here.
The proof of the pudding is in the eating matthew.I will be the first one to congratulate you if your forecast turns to be right.No kidding.Until then it is a pandora box.My target has been reached today i.e. the 1288 gap on the 10mins chart.I am in the records of saying that to birdman.You can check my previous posts if you like.Now I am watching the next possible target i.e 1307.64.
Skeeta – looks like Kingsgate Consolidated is in fact in trouble and was just issued a knockout punch.
Economically, it seemed like they’d be OK at their production rate and costs, but I didn’t realize the extent of their Environmental concerns. The Thailand government trumps the economics though and they are shutting down that countries largest gold mine, ran by Kingsgate Consolidated’s subsidiary Akara Resources.
The workers were getting sick and they believe the environment was being negatively impacted, so it sounds like the right call, but that is going to take them down for the count IMO. I had high hopes for them turning around their operations, but apparently they have a mess on their hands. I’m not a shareholder but was considering buying shares in them until all this poop-storm started brewing. I’m glad I waited, but am sorry to hear about the outcome for everyone’s sake.
________________________________________________________________________
Thailand to shut largest gold mine on environment concerns
Bloomberg | 2 days ago
http://www.mining.com/web/thailand-to-shut-largest-gold-mine-on-environment-concerns/
There has been another punch to the guts of the South African miners in a new class action lawsuit from workers suing mining companies.
{This is why I’m much more of a fan of WEST AFRICA where they aren’t having any of these long developing problems like the companies operating in several of the South African countries.
_______________________________________________________________________________
South Africa allows biggest ever class action against gold giants to go ahead
Cecilia Jamasmie
“The defendants in the case include some of the world’s biggest bullion producers, including Africa’s top bullion producer AngloGold Ashanti (NYSE:AU), Gold Fields (NYSE:GFI), Harmony Gold (NYSE:HMY), Sibanye Gold (NYSE:SBGL) (JSE:SGL) and African Rainbow Minerals (ARM), all of which have together formed the Occupational Lung Disease (OLD) Working Group to deal with such issues.
Ruth Bookbinder, Africa Analyst at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft, said Friday’s decision is a major blow to South Africa’s ailing mining sector.
In a note to investors, she said that mounting legal costs will badly hit the already struggling mining companies. Since thousands of jobs cuts are already anticipated across the sector this year, she noted that greater financial losses could lead to more redundancies.
“The mining sector accounts for the vast majority of strikes in South Africa and prospective job cuts significantly raise the likelihood of disruptive and costly labour action,” Bookbinder wrote. “With this most recent blow any hope of a recovery in the near future is fading,” she warned.
Here is some positive news, since those last 2 updates didn’t leave me with a warm fuzzy feeling……
________________________________________________________________________________
Gold demand just had a major growth spurt
Cecilia Jamasmie | a day ago
“The rally has been almost entirely driven by investors in physical gold-backed exchange traded funds and large-scale futures speculators like hedge funds. ”
“Gold demand hit its highest level ever for a first quarter in 2016, jumping to jumped to 1,289.8 tonnes or 21% more than the same period last year, according to the latest World Gold Council report
The industry body attributed the surge, which also makes the period from Jan to March January and March 2016 the second strongest quarter on record, to economic uncertainty….”
http://www.mining.com/gold-demand-just-had-a-major-growth-spurt/
Gold demand hits record high on investment growth Hedging lifted mine supply but production is plateauing, says World Gold Council.
Prinesha Naidoo | 13 May 2016
http://www.mineweb.com/regions/asia/gold-demand-hits-record-high-investment-growth/
NICE CHART INSIDE……….thanks……….
Hi Excelsior,
Yep, looks like I’m going to get a haircut on my KCN share holdings !
I’m sorry to hear that. I was just about to pick up some shares myself, but didn’t realize the extent of the challenges. Mining is a terribly risky business, but maybe they’ll still find a way to mediate the situation and resolve the concerns. Once local sentiment starts shifting against a mining operation though, it is very challenging to win the people back over. It’s a damn shame really and a rough situation.
Do you think they will continue with the other 2 exploration and development projects, or is this too big an issue to survive?
Aside from Chatree, they still have the Bowdens Silver project in Wales they they picked up from Silver Standard Resources, and the Nueva Esperanza Gold/Silver project in the Atacama region of Chile, which has a number other successful projects being explored.
Is there a chance the challenges at Chatree can be resolved?
The sold off the Bowdens Silver Project a little earlier this year to a micro listed ASX Silver company.
ASX.SVL
Oh, just FYI also Ex, the Bowdens silver project is located in New South Wales (a State in Australia). Not Wales (as in the Country).
Cheers.
Yes, I know they are Australian and I meant “New South Wales.” Sorry about that…. I do realize they’re not mining in Great Britain…. 🙂
I guess I didn’t realize they had sold off the Bowdens Silver Project. Wow.
So where do you think this puts them with the mine in Thailand being closed? Do they have any fallback position and do you think it is forever, or just until they meet certain criteria?
I honestly have NFI ?
Lets see how it pans out (no gold reference inferred;) )
QUESTION/APPEAL
From Brians’s post:
“SILJ I like most of the companies in this ETF, so I will build up a position in this when the correction/consolidation in silver and PM stocks is over”
I’m interested in SILJ too but a criticism I have heard is that it is thinly traded and illiquid. Does anybody have experience to know if that’s the case or not? Thanks in anticipation.
Here’s something towards an answer to my own question. Looking at market cap SILJ is $32m and that’s about a ninth the size of SIL. That does seem small although it’s almost exactly half the size of GLDX. I’m having no trouble so far buying GLDX although I haven’t tried to sell it. This link might be helpful although it’s likely anybody interested will have seen it already:
Volume in SILJ has picked up quite a bit lately. Stockcharts shows that the 50 day simple moving average of the volume is about 154,000 shares, currently at about $13.
For me, depending on the position size I want to establish this could be considered liquid enough or not. I notice that many ETFs ramp up over time, and if silver is as bullish long-term as I think it is, I would expect exponential growth in the volume of SILJ over the next few years.
Hi GH. Thanks. That’s helpful.
Excellent post, GH. I could not agree more. These are the kinds of discussions I really like to have on KER. ~ Brian
I’m in agreement GH. SILJ is liquid enough, and has a much better group of holdings and weightings for upside leverage than SIL. As the Silver market and Silver miners grow in popularity, then the ETF will only get more liquid over time.
Everyone appraised of the following?
this article would be a good one for discussion……….thanks……
Excelsior, just listened to 2 audios about Golden Arrow Res GARWF – possible merger with SSRI. I’m not one to chase at all and probably haven’t in 12+ years, but I did minutes ago. SGT Report and Future Money trends
Marty – I just saw this post on Golden Arrow. Their JV with SSRI on the Chinchillas Silver Project looks very intriguing indeed, and based on their website it looks like SSRI has 75% and Golden Arrow has 25% but that could be a big score for a company of their small size and market cap. This cash flow would allow them to further develop some of their other exploration targets without diluting shareholders.
SGT. report -Paper can’t trump physical Grasso CEO Golden Arrow
Golden Arrow Res GARWF- Seems SSRI Pirquitas mine is close to ending production there in Argentina. GAR is 21 miles away with 240+ AgEq oz. SSRI is doing infill work on the property to see if the economics add up.
In @ $.53.
Marty Golden Arrow looks more than interesting, what with Sprott’s involvement and how with the change of regime in Argentina its new President is very pro mining.
A. Andrew , the other video for Golden Arror on YouTube under the heading : Maximize your Silver Gains
Cheers will check it out, A
GAZr has 240+ million oz, all totaled, with less than 20% of its land package drilled/tested.
If I understand correctly, if deal is consummated, GAR with retain 25% of production $$$ of the Pirquitas. Deal looks promising with SSRI already committed $9 million to the property. Their mill is worth in excess of 300 million, so they would wish to run it further if GaR property is economic growth 8-9 years with production sometime next year.
Right on time again…….Ny dump
gold holding up …even after the $2.3 billion dump in 10 min……..see zerohedge
Thanks as always for the weekend show fella’s.
Much appreciated.
Cheers.