Potential rise in commodities
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- Segment 1: Peter Boockvar, Chief Market Analyst at the Lindsay Group, provides his insights into the potential rise in commodities.
- Segment 2: Avi Gilburt of ElliottWaveTrader.net provides his long term outlook for a global equities melt-up.
- Segment 3: Valentin Schmid, Business Editor of the Epoch Times, chats about the new Shanghai gold price fix.
- Segment 4: John Kaiser of The Bottom Fishing Report uses Exeter Resources as an example for the interest in the junior sector.
- Segment 5: Factor LLC, Founder and Technical Trader, Peter Brandt kicks off Traders Corner with comments on silver, gold, and the US dollar.
- Segment 6: Traders Corner continues with Richard Postma, AKA Doc, focusing on the precious metals.
- Segment 7: The Resource Mavin Gwen Preston provides her take on the lithium space as well as the move in silver.
- Segment 8: We wrap up the show with J. Lyons Fund Manager, Dana Lyons discussing the US markets.
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Appreciate your efforts with the weekend show fellas.
Thanks.
Cheers.
I see that quite a few Elliot Wave folks are expecting both conventional and PM markets to top this week – a wave 1 top being close? – before a sizeable 40 to 60, perhaps 100, point correction in the S&P.
After which the same people are forecasting very strong rallies throughout the summer in, well, everything.
I know little about EW so have no idea about this except that I find it interesting that various people seem to be coming to the same conclusion.
The Elliot Wace people may be correct, but that does not negate the REAL reason for buying physical PMs.
The reason for buying PMs should not be to enrich oneself through speculation, but to preserve wealth and protect against market/monetary collapse. That remains true irrespective of temporary price changes. AND when ultimately the price will rocket BECAUSE of lack of availability of physical metal. If you believe that physical will always be available, then, of course, there would be no reason to buy. If you believe the commercials have enough physical to continue to manipulate prices down, there is likewise no reason to buy.
If Elliot in 1941 was predicting a long bull market, so would a fundamentalist.
The fundamentalist would have said that the immense increase in money supply associated with fighting WWII would find its way into driving prices higher after the war.
That is exactly the same economic theory currently being used: increase money via QE eventually increases prices. Increase available money into the market by penalizing savings drives up prices. The problem the Central banks have is two-fold: 1, the money flow increase has a time-lag in influencing prices. 2, the price increase is not uniform across all entities and markets; it tends much more to blow bubbles in certain segments of the overall market. e.g. Housing, or stocks, or maybe, one of these days, commodities.
Thanks CFS, but I am not interested in some fantasy end of the world scenario that may or may not happen many years from now.
My question was about this coming week or, perhaps, the coming next 2 weeks and how many people who follow EW are seeing a drop down of between 40 and 180 points before a ‘fifth’ wave continues upwards. In other words, my question was about what is going on in the real world of the conventional markets in the short-term.
The doomsters, with their buried gold and silver and their baked beans and guns, have been predicting market collapse and end of the world since 2009 – and have been completely and utterly wrong and have cost a lot of people a lot of money sprouting such nonsense in internet articles and internet comments.
Hear, Hear Bob!!!!
But Bob UK, it is the fundamentals that drive the long-term trends.
If you want to turn this site into merely a chartist’s site…..go ahead. It then will become no better than stock house or one of the many, many other chartist sites. Full of shills and nothing but opinions, without any back-up logic.
They have been wrong but when you have the Federal Reserve Hedge Fund backstopping every bad investment by the commercial banking system you are on the cusp of something akin to Alice in Wonderland.
I am not a believer in the SP to 3000 that was touted here- Japan has had nearly 30 years of funk to accommodate the excesses of the 1980s.
Why should the USA be any different? Japan is a creditor nation-it is not the biggest debtor in the history of the world.
The epicentre of the collapse when it comes is going to be the US commercial banking system and undoubtedly we will have the headless chickens of the Federal Reserve and Plunge Protection Team assuring us that all is well up until they lose all credibility.
The numbers are so huge now that the banking holiday when it comes is going to
substantial. And then we will have SDR’s or new Dollars or whatever rubbish they can get away with. But that will not work either.
You can think up nice homespun headers like ‘Closing Gold Windows’ or ‘Your Money is Safe with US’ but this deluded generation of investors are in for a shock,none more so than the chartist technicians cum Crystal Ballers.
Also to note because of the extreme leverage in the system it can fail at ANY time-perhaps the SP will be making new highs,perhaps not-maybe the technicians will be ultra bullish(this would be my favoured scenario) when the market abruptly tips over,who knows. I suspect though that Central Banking & Technical Analysis are going to be out of favour for a long time in the aftermath.
Hear,hear,Jim.
Thanks for a great show.
Bob UK,
HAVE YOU LOOKED AT THE BEHAVIOR OF BITCOIN IN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS?
An alternative to fiat, just like precious metals are an alternative to fiat.
I can’t see any strong rallies in the summer after a correction. That is usually a period of high volatility and roller coaster rides up and down going nowhere.
Our friend Trader Dan Norcini is out with an analysis on the speculative positioning in Silver this week and its an eye opener. Dan writes: “I am not exaggerating when I categorically state that the silver market is a train wreck just waiting to happen….I would rather miss any more upside in this market than get long now, not with a trade so lopsidedly jammed with speculators on the long side. I will leave that for the daredevils and others who like driving the stagecoach as close to the edge of the mountain pass road as they possibly can”.
Everyone here will enjoy Dan’s charts I am sure. We now have all time record high longs just as silver has experienced a blow off top. Dan surmises it is possible even more longs will be added but cautions that “This market is both a heart-breaker and an account destroyer” and that it is so stoked with firepower from potential sellers that investors had better not take their eyes off it for long.
Silver Commitments of Traders – Halloween is Arriving Early This Year ~~ Dan Norcini
https://traderdan.com/?p=10950
Guess will have to wait and see if DN is correct. There is also much fuel that could be released on the upside if secular trends reassert themselves. To me, the metals are in the transitioning phase for the long term secular. Not that there can’t be a rout. The best of the best can and will be wrong. On the last wash and rinse, commercials covered really quick. Did they foresee the change?
Very little has changed in the silver market, since the options chain remains flat many years out and the spreads between the nearest and longest dated remain very narrow. The rally in silver against gold might mean we are finally at the turning point in the conventionals and a temporary phenomenon, only to see the gold/silver ratio resume higher. Mostly people see this as a major reversal for the gold/silver ratio, which may not be correct. Presumably what follows is the next financial crisis, perhaps a stock market crash, or currency crisis.
Dan also mentioned the short gold trade as being crowded. Anyone out there have any details on positioning short gold?
I think the rise in ‘short gold’ over the last 4-6 weeks is commercials protecting their position, or trying to. Over recent years it was pretty predictable that price would fall with the gold commercials reaching these levels. It hasn’t been the same for them this time. They have been smoked at times over the secular bull. With this be another one? It’s been a while.
Great point Jerryck. That makes perfect sense. At first I was wondering why there would be so many and that short-speculators could not be the correct answer given everyone is beyond bullish lately. But what you are saying implies the Commercials are maintaining a negative outlook on price.
I agree Jerryck that is may be the commercials hedging their positions.
Fransix – what do you mean by ‘temporary phenomenon’?
I think the gold/silver ratio is meant to rise further, and people are throwing aside the prospect of economic crises and jumping on the bandwagon, since it’s been so long in the silver space that you could speculate on a bull market. But silver’s seen it’s day, much like other commodities. I think gold is the exception in this.
That doesn’t mean silver won’t be carried along in gold’s wake.
So you think ALL commodities are about to plunge?
Did you see this article yesterday Fran?
It is a discussion about the relationship of the gold/silver ratio to inflation and a great chart is appended. In a nutshell, as the G/S ratio rises we have a falling inflation rate which is another way of saying disinflation or possibly deflation is on the rise.
I had not seen it before but thought it was a great observation. So as silver falls again we will see the G/S ratio go back up once again implying that actual inflation is in retreat. So what you are saying above has validity. What we need to tell us real inflation is here is a low G/S ratio.
As an aside, the G/S ratio leads because it can be calculated daily whereas government CPI numbers are not released except on a monthly basis. So this is a forward looking indicator. Have a look and tell me what you think if you don’t mind.
The Metal Ratios Are An Ominous Sign For US Inflation Trends — Gavekal Capital
http://blog.gavekalcapital.com/?p=10923
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There is another chart in that article which is equally fascinating. It is the correlation between US Equities and 10 Year Treasuries. To read the chart you only need to note where the “zero” line is in the center of the graph.
Any reading above zero and the sentiment is towards deflation while a correlation below zero suggests the fear in the marketplace has turned inflationary. At this time we are just coming off record highs for a deflation outlook but the chart may be falling back towards zero (we hope!).
Whatever it does there is plenty of time to prepare as you will notice the peak to peak cycle difference is considerable for this particular measurement. And a last note on this second chart….it is a classic megaphone pattern. Should it complete then it does suggest we will be unquestionably inflationary in the next decade.
Fransix,
Given that the ratio of silver to gold pulled out of the ground is about 10:1, why do you think demand for gold over silver is such that it will increase the price ratio even more.
( I asked because data of actual imports to India does not indicate that, and neither does physical use in the US. I realize the big players are probably China and Russia, for which data is scarce.)
The ratio of gold in the ground to silver is not a valid assumption, never has been. Gold is still money, silver was demonetized 150 years ago.
On the question whether all commodities are to decline, I think that almost all commodities have seen backwardation, the exception of course is gold.
I agree that the gold-silver ratio in the earth’s crust is meaningless but silver can’t be demonetized by government decree any more than gold can. They can stop using it and even outlaw it but the properties that make both metals money are outside of anyone’s control.
Silver remains the second best money there is because it has the second highest stock-to-flow ratio.
“Unlike consumable commodities, gold and silver exhibit a large discrepancy between annual production and the total available supply which is a high stock-to-flow ratio. It is our premise that the high stock-to-flow ratio represents the most important characteristic of gold (and silver). The entire amount of gold ever mined totals approximately 172,000 tons. That is the stock. Annual production was about 2,700 tons as of 2012. That is the flow. If one divides the two amounts, one arrives at the stock-to-flow ratio of currently 64 years.
Gold isn’t as valuable because it is so rare, but quite the opposite: Gold is valued so highly because annual production relative to the existing stock is so small. Putting it differently: not only scarcity, but primarily the relative constancy of the available stock is what makes gold unique.”
http://www.incrementum.li/en/research-analysis/gold-stock-to-flow-ratio/
This was a really good discussion about the Gold:Silver ratio guys. Many great points.
The high gold/silver ratio comes from two facts:
Silver is smaller market and prone to price suppression
Silver was widely used in the world to make coins. Once world governments withdraw it and dumped ALL on the market, the price was depressed for decades.
Both are not true for gold. Gold has large market and coin melts are hoarded by governments and private alike. We have to wait until the silver supply to burn out or lost of confidence for gold and silver ratio to return to where the natural ratio suggests. It most likely to overshoot like in the California gold exploration time. We can see the hints this is coming. So I will always keep some physical silver.
The primary driver of gold over any other medium as a store of value is that it is real and tangible and once refined, will not tarnish for millions of years because it’s an inert substance. The metal is also malleable, which means it can be struck into coins or bars very easily.
Silver can tarnish and can be imitated by using other metals, which makes it inferior. It is also inferior as coinage because ppl. will melt coins down into larger bars.
Silver can tarnish but gold can get dull. I think it is light form of tarnishness. But it does not affect the store of value. You can clean it easily and it take a couple of years to return to its tarnish state but it will stay there forever without losing any metal content unlike other metal which will just rust away. In activity scale silver is more like platinum, good enough. I have many silver bars and gold bars. After several years, the silver bars were not as shiny but it does not bother me. As for the relative weight, it is all measured on relative prices, if silver price goes up relative to gold, this difference work to your favour. If you are super rich, gold is definitely better. It actually better to save in diamonds. But if you are a middle class, I don’t think it makes a lot of difference. My grand parents were farmers in China. They worked all their life and at last only saving they had were two dozen silver coins and half jewellery box of silver jewellery. All of their paper money were inflated away. They had no gold. The sad story for me is that my grandma left those coins for me as inheritance and they were sold by my parents (except four) during the economic hard time in 1970s in China. I think silver has been used as money many fold more than gold. But I don’t believe gold and silver will be money again. But they will be store of wealth.
BTW, both gold and silver can be imitated with current technology easily. Gold’s high value offers more incentives to fake. However, they can be detected with technology easily as well.
Also the proof that tarnish does not affect the value of silver is: many of my silver bars were sent to me tarnished (old). They did not ask me whether I want a new bar or old one. They offered me no discount either.
Silver has the quality of being highly conductive and will restore to shine in a mild electrolyte under electrical current.
Gold can accumulate a whitish film if handled without gloves which comes from the hands. Gold can be reduced to a salt with Aqua Regia which is the primary method of salting drill cores.
Silver and gold have a lot common properties and they out-shine each other in other areas. I don’t believe people saying gold is useless. It is just too expensive to use in those ways. As a store of value, it should be, otherwise it will not be stored. We can look at silver, due to the fact it is way cheaper than its supposed monetary value, the stockpile has been constantly burnt away since 1970s. It was accumulated in the last several thousand years and we can have this stockpile only once. It is sad to see it go. Once the burning is complete, the industrial usgae will make the price jump since one source of supply dries up. How about IF confidence is lost and people seek traditional form of store of value? Where is the silver it used to be there? It is gone. Any bit leftover will be sought after.
Fransix, when you say silver has been demonetized, I believe you are being too US centric.
Indians and Mexicans would probably differ in opinion.
One thing that ppl are missing us that the larger the above ground supply of gold, the lower its volatility. Silver, in the other hand gets wildly carried in abberrations of sentiment.
Silver in Canada is still considered bullion in the form of coins and remains a tax-free transaction, should you bring your coins to the bullion or foreign exchange desk. (sort of still money in a sense)
Fran Six, what’s your latest take on GBN.V ? You wrote: A trustee may be needed to oversee that a large capital write-down is done according to legal means.
Basically we’re waiting for the release of news post FOMC that has to do with the settlements of two separate tranches of financing for the end of the fiscal 2016 year, ending April 30, and the closure of two separate agreements that govern the gold supply to the Sprott Physical ETF stored at the mint, and The Royal Canadian Mint’s ETR.
So the fact that trading is still halted means news is still pending, and it will have to do with the last five/six years of operations. My guess is that former directors from Claude Resources recently bought out by Silver Standard will wind up on the board of Golden Band Resources.
I contacted Kristin Gray Kgray @ bowragroup com with the list of posts.
On one website, the stock appears halted, but on another, there’s an offer of 17,000 shares. Just how long the halt will last is anyone’s guess, but it looks like it can be made to last until fall. If the ‘debt’ referred to by the company is merely a semantic replacement for another series of forward – looking tax-advantaged schemes, providing gold under a contractual basis, then this is how the ‘debt’ makes sense, especially considering the pro-forma nature of years of filings. The company has no debt, and no capital requirement and has plenty of room to grow. I wonder if it has occurred to the trustee that they’re being used.
But there is also what seems like some sort of shadow proxy battle over just who is a beneficial shareholder in the company.This article from the McGill law journal is a good discussion on legal ramifications during a squeeze out:
Sorry, I am not sure what you are asking? The Company has filed a Notice of Intention to file a Proposal to their Creditors. As of right now, we are unsure as to what the plan will look like.
The post implies that the trustee doesn’t understand they are being used. I was giving you a heads up to the location of the posts. http://agoracom.com/ir/GoldenBand/forums/discussion
From what I have read, it seems like a major cover up and there is another side of the story. You will not get it, until you read all of the posts on that main page, starting with August 12, 2015
Marketofthefuture, why are you stalking me?
That was not the intent. I got interested in the story after you posted about it.
You were the only one that layed things out. The last few releases seem like the story is ready to be swept under the rug. With Waterton in the background, it reminded me of them removing references to Barrick from their website during the Allied Exploration property sale with shell corp this and that being played.
Markedofthefuture, start here:
What Trader Dan says,i take seriously,and the Cots are scary for sure,but i will keep the PM stocks i bought Dec 2015.If we correct hard i will buy more.
Just my personal opinion.
Great Weekend show.
Yes Pete.
Me too.
Fwiw, combined open interest this week for gold is just 5% higher than it was at the January, 2015 top – which was just a bear market rally.
i remember not long ago avi was calling for silver to have a 12 handle on it, how can anyone take this guy seriously?
Tom, if you had been an oil industry analyst and the summer of 2014 when WTI was trading for 120 dollars and you had told your colleagues you thought oil would fall to 26 dollars a barrel they would have laughed you out of the boardroom or fired your crazy ass.
What we have learned in the past two years is to plan for the unexpected and prepare for the impossible. In 2014 the idea that oil could fall to a small fraction of those old highs was unthinkable. And yet it happened. Since then there have been hundreds of thousands of pink slips dished out to oil workers around the globe and whole countries are now crashing.
I don’t think what Avi is saying is improbable. Silver is still an industrial commodity and as you probably know, the largest user of commodities in the world is still China by a large measure.
Over there we are seeing all the signs of excess that typically appear before a significant correction. Should China land hard (and it will), then we should be able to anticipate that not only will iron ores, copper, aluminum and cement tumble even harder but that silver will see much lower prices.
This in fact is central to my personal beliefs that the current sharp price increase in gold and silver are nothing more than a cyclical bounce within a secular bear market in precious metals. In other words, we just had a dead cat bounce and nothing more and the overarching trend should soon reassert itself.
My readings on metals is that they will retrace the entirety of this recent recent price spike and eventually fall below the old lows. That means 12 dollar silver is indeed still in the cards and it is not just a whack-job idea that some crazy analyst puts out there for laughs and giggles.
It will be several months before we can know for certain that this mini metals bull is dead but I am personally building my investing thesis around a China crash because I am so certain it will manifest within the next 3 quarters.
And a China crash if you are curious will bring on the most serious deflation impulse the world has ever experienced. I suspect it will be even greater in magnitude than the 1930’s but that the most sever effects will be centered on Asian and those economies most closely tied to China. that includes South Korea, much of Africa, Vietnam and the region. European banks will fail in number as one outcome and many non-diversified commodity exporting nations will fall into outright depression.
What George Sorrows is calling for…er…sorry….Schwartz György.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-george-soros-right-about-the-coming-crash-in-china-2016-04-22
Has George a massive amount of shorts in Chinese stocks?
As I have seen in several blogs, people in America not only hate him, they want to eat him alive. People hate him far more than hating China. He represents the ultimate crony capitalism. I would not put a lot of faith in his world’s. What he says in not what he predicts but what he wishes for.
Nobody on this site hates China, Dragonite. I don’t hate China. We are just worried about them losing control of the system over there is all. You have to admit there are legitimate reasons to be concerned and our economic health depends on how well they can manage the slowdown.
Thanks, Bird, If you go to zerohedge, you know how much people hate China, and off course Soros by a factor of 10. This site is a lot better so I come here all the time. Thank God there are sites like KER. Due to my own reason, I pay more attention to China than most. I would like to say there have always been challenge and crisis， almost every year. A lot of my fellow dissidents have been predicting downfall of Communist party since 1980s but they always manage to get through, even at a lot tougher times (e.g. 1987-1993). The problem for China is that there is no other choice, people has to stick with the current government. Unlike US people, who usually don’t care about politics and mind their own lives or football, Chinese are more aware the problems. Every time we gather, we talk about what happening in China, even more with my parents’ generation. People complain a lot. But they don’t take opposition seriously and consider them counter productive. People believe everyone is bad. With such improved living standard, people usually don’t want to choose poverty just to have a revolution. So I hope people outside of China understand that. The buffer between the economic condition and revolution level has increased dramatically during the last 3 years. So even economy contracts (which is unlikely), there will not be crash and burn. But the news coming from China recently suggest growth has improved. The last few years’t tightening was aimed at squeezing out corruption. It has been a worry of a lot of economists in China. Xi choose to do it anyway. He recently has an interview with NBC (I think) and showed his resolve to crash corruption even with economic loss.
When I looked at the data for Chinese imports, it is not clear that a crash is demonstrable.
e.g. March imports in US$are up 8%, in RMB up 11% yoy.
Thus the conclusion I reach is that while the Chinese stock market may drop, the general economy is NOT about to drop; not even close.
There are two types of data, one is data from China and the other is HSBC data. HSBC is a British Bank who pretends to be Hong Kong bank. It serves the interest of Great Britain. It is also directly involved in PM manipulation. Most of the time in the reports here, they forgot to quote whose data it is.
Agreed, China crash still very much in play.
Commodities are still confined to long term downtrends, as are global stock markets, with only the broad US averages near all time highs. Until the both breakout convincingly, nothing has changed. Deflationary crash is not off the table.
Some of us got bearish too early in late March. Fine. If they rocket higher from here, so be it. I’ll add to my silver position and buy US stocks with new all time highs on the S&P500.
Until the market proves otherwise, don’t let the perpetual commodity bottom callers and bubble phase hucksters get to you.
No, ignore all the commodity bottom callers and miss 300% and 400% gains in some of the copper and iron miners since mid January.
Feck, I have to stop listening to the never-ending doomsters on this site. All they see is doom, doom, doom.
Those guys and gals with their basements full of guns and boxes of tinned baked beans – I wish that someone would take away their internet connections.
Very well said Bob. Stick with the fundamentals I say and ignore the trolls…they’ll do our heads in! Best, A
Well Bob, I would sure agree the perpetual commodity bottom callers have been a pain in the ass. Part of the reason is that they cried wolf so many times that when a valid bottom finally arrived, most people were no longer prepared to listen.
They had just lost money making bets on metals and miners too many times already and were either exhausted or simply burned out when a great opportunity presented itself.
Incredibly, MOST people missed this recent fabulous run. They only read about in the news after it was pretty much finished.
I was very surprised when I heard a few different people saying they were not invested in miners or precious metals right now. One was Kerry Lutz who is the host of Financial Survival Network and a second was Dan Norcini. If ANYBODY should have been tuned in to PM markets it would have been those guys.
So what happened?
When the time arrived most just did not pull the trigger. Burned once…burned twice…burned again and screw it they would rather just wait to be sure. And others I have read said that they didn’t have the confidence anymore or that the market moved so fast they could not stomach chasing it up.
There is no question that psychology plays a big role in trading. Beyond technicals there is an element of risk that others might call gambling. What bothers me most are the promoters who never shut about how great metals were all through the bear and kept calling false bottoms time and again.
In the process they had the devoted sitting on pins and needles and feeling fearful of each turn instead of looking forward with anticipation. Those same investors then watched in shock as the much awaited launch took off without them while they sat on their hands only to learn too late that some very average companies had gained several hundred percent.
So yes Bob. The promoters and bottom callers suck as far as most people are concerned.
GREAT COMMENT BOB UK………….ditto to the doomers………..
143 GURUs missed the top, and that many will miss the bottom………jmho
Hey Jerry, where you been this morning?
HAD THE HONEY DOOO LIST…..to accomplish before playing……… LOL
BTW……….thanks for the TUBMAN report…………..
I missed out on the commodity rally these past 4 months.
I watched Glencore, FCX, Anglo America, BHP Biliton and Rio Tinto down, down, down, last year and was ready to pounce in January. They reached my buy-in points.
I know that I am repsonsible for my own decisions but I stupidly listened to those on here who, around mid-January time, predicted the end of the world and that these stocks would go lower.
I forgot that such people have been claming, day in day out since 2009, that the financial world is going to collapse – they have been totally wrong now for 7 years – so I just wish that they would feck off.
Yes, one day they might be right – and they will boast how right they are – but that will be after almost a decade and thousands of percent increases in certain stocks.
I sold out just before the top in 2008/09 – nailed it and nailed it without the use of reading internet finanical sites – but then I discovered financial websites and the likes of zerohedge and that Bob Prechter guy amongst others. As I say, I am responsible for my own actions, or lack of action, but these frecking never-ending doomsters have cost me a load of money over the years.
Have any of you noticed – the closer we get to major upticks in the markets the more and more doomster articles and comments these doomsters publish online. If I was paranoid I would begin to think that they were all paid shrills.
Sorry to hear you were not following me back in December. I was getting pretty bullish back then and became convinced we had a hell of a rally coming. It turned out to be even better than expected.
Bob UK, I feel your pain. I too have not pulled the trigger on some trades due to what others have said.
If you had bought back then would you sell now? If not, would you regret your trades a few months or even weeks from now?
Everyone thinks they can get in at the right time and get out at the right time or else they’d never trade. But timing markets is extremely difficult, especially over the long haul.
Try not to feel too bad about what you have or have not done in the past.
And now I’m off for a bike ride…something you have probably already done today.
It’s easy to look back and say what you should have done. But if you could go back in time and if you looked hard enough, you could probably find an equally compelling reason to do the opposite.
No one can predict the future, and those who live by the crystal ball eventually end up eating broken glass.
Ebolan – that is a very good point and a question that I have been pondering much myself this week.
If I put the money into FCX back in mid-January that I was intending to I would now be able to buy a very nice house here in the UK. But, would I be holding out for that bigger house down the road?
Who knows.
What I have noticed on this site – and it is true of several financial sites – that some posters disappear… or post rarely… only to reappear just as a particular sector is about to soar… and then they bombard the site(s) with negative comments after negative comments.
It is almost as if they want everyone to wallows in the same negativity, misery and depression that they appear to be in. That, in some perverse way, they feel better knowing that they have, perhaps, scuppered others. After all, misery loves company.
I only mention it because, in recent days, I notice that some doomster posters who have been quiet of later are suddenly very active again with their ‘Posts of Doom’… which kinda makes me think that the markets are about to soar.
Yep, did my bike ride earlier Ebolan… and now on the bottled beer… I passed some gorgeously shaped lycra-clad female bottoms whilst out riding… (Deep sigh).
Hope it wasn’t me Bob. I am a pragmatic gloomer. Maybe you were bothered by my calls for silver to start fading back? But I do believe that will happen and indeed silver has lost a buck in the past days and more is coming.
If I can offer any advice though it would be this…..make notes now of what moved and how much the gains were. There was substantial buying of large companies which is usually institutional’s getting involved.
But for people who cannot pick stocks there was an easier way to just trade indexes. JNUG for example rose 640% in the last 90 days. You might have bought that and just fallen asleep and done nothing else.
You loading up with DUST theb Birdman? The potential is there for 500% gains on the way down as there were with JNUG on the way up.
DUST? Yes Bob. I bought and have added to it. Going with a silver short too for a brief run as well. Why not? But I don’t expect 5X by a long shot because I think the decline will play out over a long time frame. Too long for trading the levered ETF’s straight up. But nobody would bitch about a double and you just never know, do you? DUST was trading at 20 dollars just three months back. It can be had for 2.00 bucks today so there is room for upside. Rick Ackerman was touting a buy on DUST if it hit 1.47 thereabouts but it looks to me like DUST bottomed at 1.77 yesterday. I had NUGT on the way up and that was OK.
You playing it too or are you hoping silver keeps going up as others assert?
Nah, I think that gold and silver are going to be heading back down here as the USD goes back up. I only see weakness for the Pound and the Euro as we head into June 23rd.
I saw DUST get down to about $1.86 yesterday.
I suppose it all depends what happens with the FOMC this week. I suppose a shock IR rise is not out of the question…
What is silver short ETF?
DSLV is one. I am also using the Canadian version called HZD if that helps but you probably can’t get it over there. It is a 2X fund. Here is the DSLV chart for review. Notice how volume buying really picked up the last three days?
It is quite encouraging if you follow the principle of buying what others are buying to stay on track. It saves a lot of research most days to just watch volumes and get a feel for what others know since nobody can watch every chart.
Not that it made any difference to me in this particular case because I had a perfect technical set up coming in and so far it is playing to perfection so I would have bought in even on low volume (which I did ahead of the crowd).
Yahoo.com — DSLV Chart — 6 months
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=DSLV+Interactive#{%22showArea%22:false,%22showLine%22:false,%22showOhlc%22:true,%22lineType%22:%22bar%22,%22range%22:%226mo%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
Thanks Birdman.
Bird,
So you actually think China who can print the @#!$%!!! out of their currency won’t do so if necessary or sell U.S treasuries or cook the-books like the U.S.A has done to maintain global trade? Your thesis also assumes that all the surplus capital sent over there from the West over the last 25+ years will come rushing back to the U.S and Europe. I find that a bit of a fantasy to be honest. Sure, I see excess and corrections in China, but a massive crash; I think not. Please show me your thesis and poke hole in mine.
How is that money printing working out in Japan and Europe?
Have a look at this chart published by Mckinsey last year. See where China fits into the picture right up there with Portugal, Greece and Ireland? There are very good reasons that the likes of George Soros and Kyle Bass have taken huge bets against the country and its currency because it will indeed be the currency that needs adjustment to balance the books. But that also implies a massive wave of deflation sweeping across the globe. So we won’t cry for the Chinese exactly. They will make it work at a high cost to themselves and will drain most of their FX reserves in the process. The rest of us are guaranteed to see consequences though which I am sure you appreciate since you have already put your focus on the fact they can print their way out of hock.
Change in Debt to GDP ratios (Not Debt to GDP…that of course is much larger at 350%)
http://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Global%20Themes/Employment%20and%20Growth/Debt%20and%20not%20much%20deleveraging/SVGZ_MGI_DebtV2_ex_2.ashx
Check it out Bird, this is not the first time Soros attacked China. He did in 1997 as well.
He is a very gloomy guy. I just did a search on Zerohedge and the titles of the articles say it all. He does not laugh much does he?
Don’t know. He looks like an evil though.
Tom,
If one listens to Avi once in a while, here and there, one might come up w. comments such as the one you just made on him/silver.
If one follows him and his work a little more closely – or should I say “seriously”, one will likely change one’s tune. But that suppose more time dedication and intellectual effort.
I SUPPOSE that if you were aware of some of his calls more frequently than just by listening to him once in a while on KER, you would probably not come up with conclusions such as the one you wrote. That is, if you are intellectually honest – which I have no reason to doubt. Personally, I just feel “sorry” for people who listens to him once in a while, and draw conclusions right away (sometimes wrong ones), as they miss the big picture. As I wrote in the paragraph above, one needs “more time dedication and intellectual effort. ”
Although I am not one of his subscribers, I have exchanged with Avi a few times this week on silver – as he mentioned in his interview – and he NAILED every twist and turn. He N-A-I-L-E-D them.
When it comes to your mention of the 12 handle on silver, I suppose that a longer discussion during the KER interview would have enabled him to discuss that. In his communication with me, Avi addressed the topic, as he did with his subscribers.
FWIW, I still have orders in place (meaning I have capital allocated/earmarked in my portfolio) on long term silver calls in case silver takes a nose dive.
Again, to me, Avi is very up there when it comes to risk management of positions with identification of downside risk and upside target.
I’m not one of his buddies, neither one of his friends so I have no skin in saying that – which could come across as a compliment, and which it is not. What I express is just my unbiased view.
So if you come across anyone, anyone w. a better and MORE CONSISTENT track record at highlighting downside risks/upside targets, I’m game.
Someone who helps managing capital more successfully on the long and short/hedging side, I’m game.
Time dedication/intellectual effort. Listening once in a while to Avi on KER doesn’t really make the cut in that case. Not consistently at least.
Ask yourself the following 2 questions:
* can you learn being an excellent car driver by listening at 8-10mn audio interviews of rally car world champions once a week telling you how to drive better ?
* can you become a master chef by listening to a 8-10mn audio interview of say… Gordon Ramsay once a week ?
* can you become REALLY super fit by listening 8-10mn a week to the best fitness coach in the world?
Time dedication/intellectual effort.
My 2cts.
LPG
Edit of typo:
In my post @ 8:09 am.
“Ask yourself the following 3 questions” (not “2 questions” as written initially).
Wishing you all a pleasant WE.
LPG
Well said LPG. It does take intellectual effort to stay up to date with a dynamic and changing marketplace.
Often times “skimmers” miss a pundits updates and get just one idea in their mind and camp out there. Then there are others that only listen once in a while, and hear what they want or what stuck out a that time, but then they miss all the updates. Their information flow will be spotty, and it is like going to the gym to work out every 2 or 3 weeks. Yes, it’s better than nothing, but you aren’t to get much traction or see much improvement. A good work out is timed out rhythmically and focused on regularly, to see the best results.
This reminds me of those that keep bringing up Rick Ackerman’s $815 gold target as what he expects in the near future… ? That is not what Rick ever said, and he was laying out different short term & long term patterns that could play out mathematically. He never said that is his current thesis for Gold, yet that is what some thought they heard when they just latched onto the target, but released the context.
Investors get way off track when they get married to a thesis and don’t acknowledge new data as it presents itself. At times something big happens and this can be a confirmation that one pattern is playing out, or this may cancel out a previous set up, or confirm/decline a wave count, or support/resistance levels, etc…..
Good stuff.
Good one Shad.
Best & hope all’s well.
LPG
LPG, it is nice to have some spare cash in case silver crash sown. However , I am ripping nice profit now by ignoring Avi’s call of $12 call. He is on my ignore list
All the best Lawrence.
Best,
LPG
Maybe you boys have already seen this. Obammie’s going to change yer fiats.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-harriet-tubman-20-bill-20160420-story.html
Well, even if Sharpton gets on the 50 I think you’ll like the change to the hundred.
Hah! They screwed up and put Al’s twin brother Franklin on there. Well, good enough for gooberment work.
OWL AND BIRD……..ON going on the new TWO DOLLAR BILL….THE winged warrior series………. 🙂
ON to ARE……..
Good one on the new hundred dollar bill Ebolan.
And the Canucks are getting into the act and changing their currency, too.
http://s31.postimg.org/7x4wvnbez/festisite_ca_dollar_100.png
I hear the Brits are about to go plastic too. (Or was that spastic?)
I find it ironic that the US is putting a slave on its fiat currency as the elites accelerate their efforts to get rid of cash and of course as cash continually loses its value due to inflation. And we find out about the move to put a slave on the currency right around slave filing time…er…sorry tax filing time.
I find it ironic that the US is putting a slave on its fiat currency
And I am referring to Tubman, not Korelin! 🙂
That is one angry looking woman, Ebolan. You would feel nervous just spending that money knowing she was watching your every move. The new face of the notes is not a friendly one. It projects defiance.
You are right Bird, so I will trade you 10 Tubmans for 1 Korelin. 🙂
I’m going out for a nice dinner tonight, and am just going to lay down two Korelin notes on the table and take it from there…..
We’d be better off as medieval serfs
http://listverse.com/2011/02/15/top-10-reasons-we-should-revive-the-dark-ages/
Great post.
We are living in a dark age RIGHT NOW!
Exhibit #1: Public education = “gubmint skool sighingtists” still haven’t figured out the difference between boys and girls.
I enjoy the article……….DARK AGES…….thanks for posting Ebolan
CFS They got rid of the fifty quid note long ago. Many tradesmen who like to be paid in cash know the score, while many cash machines are known to go wrong whilst encouraging smaller amounts to get withdrawn.
Spastics would do well to think about buying 24 carat gram denominated arums. Although (val)aurums look expensive who knows they could soon become a bargain.
You can still get £50 notes, A.
I use them all the time, when in England.
Not in your typical high st bank you can’t!
Must be that my natwest knows me. I even get them occasionally at cooperative bank.
Also Santander.
Of course, Norwich is not a village, and has a university, with lots of foreign students.
Replacing Borden with Fleck! We Canadians finally got it right. You are a riot today, Eddie.
Gold/Hui/miners/cad
Will head back down into summer as I’ve called it for sometime now. Many of you were able to purchase in December lows and hold or have made some good coin. It’s a tuff decision on what to do but for me it would be wise to bank in some profit here and now. Not necessarily sell it all but at least a sizeable half or more position would be smart imo. We are going to have a sell off very close in equities something that I’ve been predicting for the longest time as shad and Matthew know already. My time line is fast approaching and my dates for this sell off that I believe will also take down commodities is in fall/first quarter of 2017. I believe this is when the bull will resume. I’ve been known to be wrong in the past and I don’t have a perfect record but I’m comfortable enough in assuring once again a big sell off is on the horizon. My reasonings are the same as you already know. Transitional year in presedential elections combined with the excuse to bring in change after a sell off. Cycles and hardship in line with the former.
for the record there is another scenario that I’ve talked with shad regarding possible bottom is in. Confirmation of that would be a resumption of higher gold prices through the summer and then when equities sell off, gold sells of from a much higher price.
Good luck to all..
Hey Glen. Good to hear from you. This is the first i recall of your predictions but they sound about right to me. I sure agree that metals are going to get sold back down even though the bugs will not hear of it.
Hi bird
Yes ive been saying for a very long time about 2016 fall. A repeat of 2008.
Glenfidish
Good thoughts,i will go with the nr:2 scenario.
Thank you
Thanks pete
Tim Wood still sees gold at least testing its low.
Really? He seems to be a bear on everything and depressed all the time and rightly so.
Matthew,i listened to Tim Wood,maybe gold will test its lows,but i feel the same way Doc(below) do,that im not concerned about the price of bullion,i think that the pm´s that i own have bottomed.I am hoping to get a second chance to buy the ones that i missed,IPT.V and some others.(After researching IPT i really like that one)
I agree with you Pete. Although I doubt that gold will test the low, much less exceed it, I have no doubt at all that the miners have bottomed.
Those who have a good memory know that I have consistently said since last year that I am downright bearish gold compared to the gold miners long term.
IPT remains my favorite silver miner because its exploration and production growth potential is huge. Of course, most of them will do very well.
Did not realize that IPT have so large land holdings.
Thank you Matthew.
Thanks for the link Matthew. That is the first time I have heard anybody say anything along the lines of my own technical charting. So that makes two of us in the camp for a full retrace in gold.
Small minority.
What about Armstrong?
Actually I don’t know. I don’t get his reports and often cannot make sense of what is on the daily blogs. I think someone here was telling us his gold outlook but cannot recall what it was anymore. Maybe someone will fill us in.
By the way, I was just listening to Bob Hoye who was remarking that silver had hit an RSI reading of 84 a few days back and set off alarm bells for him since it was the highest overbought reading he had seen since the blow-off top in silver in the 80’s.
Anyway, he was also commenting on base metals and saying he did not believe they were about to enjoy the start of a cyclical bull market and that he felt they were going to all trade right back down to their January lows.
He did not say the same for silver.
Gold, Silver and Metals Rally Continues. Bob Hoye – April 22, 2016
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2016/04/gold-silver-metals-rally-continues-bob-hoye-april-22-2016/
Actually, he was talking about silver:gold and he stretched it with 84. $silver hasn’t come close to 80 yet.
It is a good indicator and it does point to silver probably underperforming gold for a little while.
As for Hoye’s comparison to 2011, the bigger picture is vastly different now. Take a look at the weekly RSI then versus now (about 90 vs. 63.77!)…
The monthly RSI was about 86 at the 2011 top and is less than 49 now. Remember that cycles are like Russian dolls – one inside the other. Big picture, this market has a very long way to go.
I have my doubts. I did just notice though that silver has actually broken out on the longer term charts. Not sure why that eluded me after the spike high this week but it did. I must be getting groggy from reading too many charts.
So we shall see Matthew. If gold follows along I will change my tune because a beak-out is a break-out in my books and there is no point in not stating the obvious. I am no bear anymore if this becomes a real bull market that’s for sure.
The MACD on silver meanwhile is not hopeful over the short term. We are going to correct down but it remains to be seen by how much and how fast and the MACD is not the most useful for timing if you need accuracy.
For me the next two weeks will tell the story. Month end action is always an interest of mine.
Yes, silver is very extended and at risk short term. With the Fed meeting next week, I will be surprised if it doesn’t get a little extra smacking down.
Lets hope so or I will get hung out to dry on these short trades.
I have something else here that should be of real interest to you and everyone on the site. According to Deutsche Bank, Crude Oil speculative net-longs are now at record highs which is a 180 degree turn from a few months back when they were at record shorts.
And you know what that means….
It is another confirmation of my thesis that stock markets will fall during May. If oil drops soon and the longs start to sell positions or get short we could see quite a reversal in prices and that is one indication that stocks will follow the market down.
Fancy that eh? RECORD Spec longs. Who knew?
From One Extreme To Another: Record Oil Shorts Are Now Record Oil Longs
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-23/one-extreme-another-record-oil-shorts-are-now-record-oil-longs
Hoye is bullish the miners in this post bubble contraction.
Ive known his head if sales for years.
Birdman that was an interesting update on the net speculative longs in Oil. I share the same thesis that Oil and the general markets will be heading down in May.
Just point out about Bob Hoye. Bob is a gold only guy. He never has anything good to say about silver. It is true to a lot of gold people as well. They feels silver is not worthy of investment since it is cheaper and more volatile. He has predicted obove 100 GSR for as long as I can remember. He never feel GSR is high enough.
That’s true, Dragonite. He was bearish silver in August 2010 while I was so bullish I used margin to buy silver stocks. Silver then nearly tripled in months. He’s a deflationist.
Hey Glenfidish – hope all is well man.
Yes, we are getting into the time range you were looking for, and I agree it would not surprise me to see the metals and commodities sell down into the Summer doldrums as this is the seasonal pattern for sure. I agree with you though, that if the metals showed some real strength in the summer time, then that would be a big sentiment change and noteworthy that the pullback would be happening from a higher level.
I’ve trimmed my mining positions down to only a 20% in the Gold & Silver stocks and if we start getting a pullback, I plan on averaging down into these stocks again. Looking forward to going shopping as they go back on sale. Even if the stocks only pull back 10-20% that would be fine for me. I’m also perched watching, and if for some reason as we get more data that shows the metals may take off for a 2nd leg higher, then I jump right back in and add to positions in my favorite companies or may even use the ETFs for a short time period just to trade the trend.
Just looping back around to our previous discussion on the companies that had financially restructured and yet still have good assets and were very undervalued, all of them (Jaguar Mining, Aurcana, Nicola Mining, and Paladin) have started to move in a positive direction. Yes, if we get a strengthening dollar and metals sell off in the short term, they may dip, but there’s been enough confirmation in these lately that longer term……. It’s gonna be a really big show. 😉
Hey buddy shad
Alway good to get your perspective!
Yes those mining companies are all very good picks. I will go on record and tell you that I regret not pulling the trigger on jaguar and Aurcana a day or two before blast off. Matthew is my witness as I emailed him and asked him about those two and another two. A day or two later they took off. Oh well.. There will be plenty of opportunities and knowing you and Matt continue ur to share amongst the best of miners will also be helpful. As you know already shad they don’t all move in tandem. When the setup is there take emotions out and pull trigger.
All the best shad
At the time I spoke to Matt shad those two had a clear w or upside down head and shoulders. You know the saying you snooze you lose.
Yes this is true one must seize the day when their intuition and charts show them value is present, and that is a great point that not everything moves in tandem. These mining stocks tend to move in fits and starts where one miner launches and then retreats, and another will start moving on technical or fundamental data playing catch up, or one that is sailing high may suddenly take a nose dive. Over the mid term they all tend to move in a similar direction, but there are definitely short -term arbitrages.
Yes I’ve been adding to Jaguar and Aurcana for over a year, and was merely averaging down in a major way in both over the last few months. Just like like Nicola Mining and Paladin. I like the investing set up when a company is on the right track, but then they make a series of bad decisions that causes their share prices to tank, and over the last few years as commodities and metals prices tanked out, it meant these companies going through a financial restructuring, angry investors demand changes at the top, and the thus positive changes are made to the management and company initiatives. That is what happened to all 4 of them.
In addition, even companies with good management and good projects can have trouble with their percentages of ore recovery or processing & milling and with the very low metals prices have had to put mines on care and maintenance. This is what has happened with all 4 of those companies above, they all have mines & processing centers on care and maintenance waiting for higher metals prices and the recovery in prices have put them back in focus for those that are paying attention.
Other companies with mines on care an maintenance, that have been tweaking their systems, processes, and costs are Alexco, Luna Gold, and Bakerville Gold. I believe they will represent an exponential move in share prices as the metals prices rise and their mines are put back into production.
Are there any other companies you are watching with their mines on care and maintenance, or that have crashed/restructure/rebooted?
Glen…….good point on the presidential election, because I agree with the thought.
Thanks ootb I also enjoy your thoughts.
For the record
Still hold iamgold and did not add when it dropped down to 1.40/1.50 region last year
Hold three more mid tier miners
Hold two small cap
Hold one speculative gold stock (I regret but lately has life to it) Matthew knows about this one
Glenfidish, the speculative gold stock you mention would that be Typhoon, just wandering, DT!
DT, I bought a lot more TYP in .025-.035 range.
Btw, I doubt that Glen hold any TYP.
I know you like TYP Mathew, so do I but I had forgotten about it till you mentioned it awhile back. DT
I hold Typhoon as well, and Matthew and I get it out and dust it off ever few months or so. I have them on my project generator list with some of the others we’ve discussed this year, and I still hope that one day Hecla may make an offer to buy them or at least just their JV interest in the Fayolle project.
One thing that Typhoon does that do that hurts their popularity is that they insist on their website be defaulted to French, and they list all their press releases as PDFs that are fixed in French language. The website is just a nuisance, because my toolbar will translate it, but some may not use that and just leave if they don’t speak French. The posting of their Press Releases in French is very unwise though, because most can’t translate a static document like a PDF with much ease.
I end up going to other sites that have already translated their press releases as a result, but they are making an unwise decision to press the issue with the French, as many people have English as a second language but few have French as a second language. Why wouldn’t you want to advertise to the US, Canadian, UK, and Australian investor, by putting out press releases in English. It’s my only gripe with Typhoon. Rant over…..
_________________________________________________________________________
Here’s a March press release that has been translated:
Typhoon Exploration Inc.: A First OreVision® Survey Reveals Two Anomalies on Aiguebelle-Goldfields
LAVAL, CANADA–(Marketwired – March 15, 2016)
*My plan was originally for Aurizon to take out Typhoon, but then Aurizon cratered and Hecla acquired all their assets and now holds the 50/50 interest on the Fayolle project.
> I’d rather see Hecla buy out Dolly Varden Silver, and find that to be much more likely, especially based on their news flow and DV bringing their headquarters inside of Hecla’s office after their loan earlier this year. Hecla also owns 14.5% of Dolly Varden.
**So, if Hecla is tied up with potentially acquiring Dolly Varden Silver, then maybe Agnico Eagle will buy out Typhoon Exploration instead…… That works for me too.
_________________________________________________________________________
ABOUT TYPHOON EXPLORATION INC.
**Association on the Aiguebelle-Goldfields Project (Abitibi, Rouyn-Noranda): 49%-owned by Agnico Eagle Mines Limited / 51% by Typhoon
*Association on the Fayolle Project (Abitibi, Rouyn-Noranda): 50%-owned by Hecla Quebec Inc. / 50% by Typhoon
Monexco Project (Chibougamau, Plan Nord territory): 100%-owned by Typhoon
Ranger Project (Abitibi, Rouyn-Noranda): 100%-owned by Typhoon
Sommet Project (Abitibi, Rouyn-Noranda): 100%-owned by Typhoon
Ex, TYP is going to do well as speculative interest returns to the sector. The properties do have legitimate potential, as their JVs indicate. With TYPs cash and market cap each at about $2M, I much prefer that they do NOT get taken out anytime soon.
Just enter “EN” after the web address as follows for English. At the top left corner of the homepage, you can select which you want where it shows: FR|EN
Thanks Matthew. That is so funny, I’ve been going to their website for about 5 years now and have never seen the FR l EN link before. All this time I’ve been going to other news outlets to read their press releases because on the FR site, even if you translate it to English, the PDFs were still in French. I didn’t realize there was an EN version with PDFs in English. I’m an idiot….but thanks for pointing me to the right path.
Hi Tracy
Matt is correct I do not hold a position in typhoon! I really don’t want to say the name for the main reason I’m upset at myself for having pulled the trigger. It is the one and only stock that I went against myself on jurisdiction. I should have known better and known who the people were that was running it. I took a gamble, put a sizeable amount and here I am in the hole a year ago and now seems like there is life. This speculative stock is a 3 year story give or take. It is a Russian company.
Glen, I’ve recently purchased IAG—I love the weekly chart. I will also add on any pull backs—-not investment advice.
Thanks doc
I believe in the long run it will turn out to be wise..
Iamgold has a big upside leverage to rising gold prices due to how their costs are structured, so they could definitely out-perform most of their mid-tier peers.
As for the gold stock – if you are talking about Jaguar Mining, hold on buddy. It may pullback in the short term, but longer term it has MUCH further to run…..
Hey shad
No it’s not jaguar.. And you are bang on iamgold being leveraged to gold. When gold rises it will outperform its peers by a long shot. Mid-tier
Yes, I see now that you were talking about a Russian stock.
I’m not really familiar with most Russian gold companies other than Polyus Gold, Nordgold, Highland Gold Mining, Berelekh Mining, Petropavlovsk plc, and Kinross’s Russian subsidiary Chukotka Mining.
It makes sense that they’d have a bunch of players though.
Great show guys and thank you doc for your views.
http://incakolanews.blogspot.ca/2016/04/feeling-little-defensive-this-week-gwen.html
Here’s a section of the intro to this week’s “Maven Letter”, dated April 20th and sent over to your humble scribe by reader “L”:
“The stocks I recommend are what I am buying. The Maven portfolio is my portfolio. I do not buy a stock before I recommend it and I do not sell before I say. I only participate in private placements of stocks that are already in the portfolio.
I rely on a few other people to help me with this endeavor. First, like any good professional I have a network of friends and peers off of whom I bounce ideas and questions when I come across something I don’t understand (which happens with good regularity!). Second, researching and writing this letter, operating the business end of things, and corresponding with subscribers takes up all of my time. As such I have someone who helps me with marketing my letter and I work with a group of people to put on the Metals Investor Forum.
None of these people know in advance when I will recommend a stock. Certainly none of them have a say in which stocks I will buy. If some of them are invested in the same equities, great; that means we see similar opportunities. But their investment accounts are separate from mine.”
The art of wordsmith includes being able to give the correct impression without mentioning the facts that aren’t so convenient. No mention of Scott Gibson and how he boasts he’s going to make Gwen Preston a millionaire, no mention of the utter coincidence that the person Gwen Preston works for (rather than with) just happens to have bought a major portion of a private placement in a thinly traded peddler of cast-off Timmins moose pasture and that Ms. Preston coincidentally started promoting the stock just days afterwards. Yup, those seven years at Northern Miner weren’t completely wasted, Gwen.
Sounds like Anon has some inside information. Spill yer guts man.
Here is one for Chris Temple regarding Chinese land speculation:
A Vancouver commercial property has now sold for more than 4X asking price. Sixteen million was the estimated value but the final buyer ended up paying 68 million!!!! The legacy of these preposterous stories are going to be like fairy tales told to our grandchildren who will honestly think we are lying through our teeth.
It has gotten to be that stupid in Vancouver now.
Valued At $16 It Sold For $68 Million “In 7200 Seconds” – The Inside Story Of Vancouver’s Wildest Property Deal
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-22/valued-16-it-sold-68-million-7200-seconds-inside-story-vancouvers-wildest-property-d
I saw that, I keep asking my bud if he intends to sell any of his properties.
That particular piece is intended for a highrise, that made it kinda valuable I guess.
Some people are just after making cash, but for that price, I could have shown them some absolutely gorgeous spots, after buying them they still could have lived like kings the rest of their lives.
Some people just like cash I guess.
Its funny bb. I know that building well. I used to live nearby although it was many years ago. Anyway, set your clock for the bust. Vancouver wshould blow sky high this year now that the final leg is happening. Won’t there be tears and regret afterwards too as a single year decline could take 30-35% of froth off the top. After that the buyers will just evaporate as the realization sets in that the bubble is over. If there is one thing that anal property-obsessed city of Vancouver really needs, its an house price enema!
You might be right Bird, but the lower mainland is an incredible place to live, for someone that likes cities anyway. People dont realize, the city runs from 49 to Squamish and east to about Hope.
I can name a multitude of wonderful spots. Then if ya dont want to live close to the city, there is lotsa coast.
Its a heck of alot safer than europe right now and its not the states, I just cant see the area not being sought after for a long time to come.
Tell me about it. I lived there for decades. The Ex and I still have a house there.
Just checked, the neighborhood is selling for over two million now. How stupid is that? We bought it for 100 and change years ago. That was a pretty good investment. I did not do a damned thing to earn it though. Never even fixed the deck when I was there last time.
Ur property right in Van?
That seems to be where the high prices are being paid.
Foreigners, thats what they hear, Van, I bet they dont even look at Deep Cove.
Thats where my dad grew up.
Course theres plenty of ocean view around too thats not Van, but what the heck. lol
We should have bought in Kits or Point Grey when it was affordable. Made no difference really. It was a tossup back then and we had the choice of either places. What a difference a postal code makes even in the GVRD. Anything West of Granville has just gone NUTS!
Its very funny though, my Mother was offered a house on Trutch she was renting back in 1982 I think. The landlady at the time offered to sell it for 79,000 and my Mother lost her temper and told the old lady to go to hell because the price was so outrageous. Hahahahaha!!! Have never asked her about it but I bet she regrets that decision now.
Maybe, but at the time she was right. That was alot of coin then.
A few years after that, or about that time, 80 k could get you a house right on the beach at Crescent.
My parents bought in Surrey, a house and 3 more lots, 35k, that was about 1970?
Prices started climbing in 86, my ex was the 6th employee hired, she entertained ambassadors, dignitary’s and the like.
Friend of mine is Vanderzalms nefew. Small world.
True, that was a lot of money. But its all relative. That house would have cost me something like 2.5 times my annual income then which is very affordable by most historical standards. Nowadays most Vancouverites could not get that same house by putting up a massive down payment, selling a kidney and mortgaging their children’s children to boot.
I hope you sell soon then and make off like a bandit! China DOOMED eh? If you are right then we are all toast here is Canuckistan!!!
I wish I could but the Ex wants to stay there for life and we agreed.
About China….the news just gets worse everyday. This week we learned they had spent (borrowed into existence) almost a trillion dollars to cover their social financing costs. That’s what got Soros so worked up because that chart has gone parabolic. it means that it will crash at some point and only G-D knows what will happen after that.
Bird or anyone else for this matter!
Toronto does not seem far off when it comes to inflated realstate property. It seems in Canada cities like Toronto, Vancouver and many others are rising at a ridiculous pace that is leaving no inventory and multiple offers way above ask. The other day a friend of mine put his home for sale. He purchased at 1.1 million and sold for a record 1.6 in that particular area. In two years he made half a million in profit! Unimaginable. The profits to be made are crazy and there seems no end to it.
When will this all come crashing down? In Toronto we are on a 30 year bear market on rates. This is absolutely uncalled for and something has to give. The only buyers now left are the 1 million dollar folks and up! I refuse to get shaken it taken but geeze I’m not getting any younger.
Thoughts are we close and how close? Will it be bonds that trigger rates higher wtf will it be. I’m pretty much with 4 stocks, debt free, good savings and cash on sidelines. I currently rent. Wife is going to divorce me if I don’t buy the dream home. I’m 38. Not getting younger and I’ve been banking on higher rates since 2007 in Toronto. Pretty crazy.
Glenfidish, don’t touch real estate now in Toronto, I have seen booms and busts in this city and you never buy at the top, investing teaches you to buy low like in the 1990’s when housing was in the doldrums after crashing in 1989. If you are an investor you should realize you must buy low and prices will correct but if you go into the housing market here and now you will lose. The crash will come swiftly like it did in Calgary and don’t think their situation is any different it is very dangerous to buy now. If you are an investor you will understand this! DT
You are only 38? You are a kid, man! …(sorry)
Just relax and let it come to you. Whatever you do….DON’T BUY!….. Not yet anyway.
The bust is this year or early 2017 at the latest and there won’t be any question about it when it happens. Starts with Vancouver and the wave will spread right across the country because as with all things real estate it is a matter of the psychology of the buyers.
You will know a bust by its primary signs. There will be a flood of listings as everyone tries to exit at once when they realize they waited too long. As listings grow the buyers evaporate and sales will fall. that all comes before the prices actually decline. Housing is incredibly resistant to falling in price when everyone has a number in their head about worth.
But eventually there are people who MUST sell and that’s when the cracks show up. A couple lower prices in a neighborhood will take everyone’s prices down to that new level. from there it can cascade. Look at other bubble bursts….there can be single year declines of 30 to 35% on average.
A negative mood in the Chinese dominated markets of Van and TO is about as bad as it can get so no other bubble city will be spared the aftershocks. What you want to do now is just knuckle down and keep saving.
This problem took years to develop into a real bubble and in the fashion of property deflations there will be years of declines back to the mean. I would give it 7 years at least before getting serious about trying to enter the market at a new buyer.
But each to his own and you never know that the Bank of Canada intervenes to prop real estate since when it blows its going to put a hole in the side of the Federal Budget canoe the size of a moose. Can’t you see this coming Glen?
Or are you too close to the action? From Africa it is as bubbly as they get. We don’t harbour illusions over here.
So tell me seriously? Are you actually thinking of buying at the peak?!!!!
DT…….is correct…never buy at the top…….IF, you are only 38, you still have some time.
You still have time if you are 68 too. Just means you have to wait until age 75 for a great deal.
Avi Gilburt is positive gold and silver now, after being in the long line of precious metal bashers up to this point? I cry foul!
Gold and silver have never reflected even a minuscule portion of all the Federal Reserve Notes and US Treasury Bonds, paper or digits, since 1933 and 1964. Until silver breaks $50 and gold breaks $2,000, we are not approaching fractional representation. Those are fundamentals. Instead we have the “petro-dollar” and “narco-dollar”, but true value of gold and silver will win out in the end. So silver being “in a top” and gold “about to break down” reflects the power of the US government, not fundamentals.
It’s spring, 2001 again but the miners look even better this time with their bigger, faster, uncorrected moves…
2001…
Since 2011 and the ensuing melt down indicators were useless.
Many called bottoms only to be blown out again. The more bearish peole are the better.
Indicators can stay overbought as its human emotions running the market.
I wouldnt give DN to much credit as his track record is scetchy.
I’m not that bullish on commodities and Chinas data has picked up buoying them lately.
Bull noting the excellent structure on the XEG in Canada it is a bullish sh chart.
I got in on the bottom but sold with a nice profit at the 50/200.
With all the neg int rates happening is supportive of gold. As I said to Mathew 2 months back Gold /silver wont have to rise much to really move the miners. Look at MSV the last couple daz….ignore all the pros their usless. Heres oil stocks looking solid. Hope u can c it..http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XEG.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p05807494651&a=325794186&listNum=1
Avi reminds me of Gartman. Wrong and confused. Stay away from this one trick pony.
Sounding a lot like the blow off that Gary has mentioned many times. I think many analysts look at a chart and use a long ruler to project ignoring fundamentals.
By the remember Gartman’s call of never seeing $44 oil in his lifetime and we just hit that. His latest stupid call a few weeks ago that the biggest threat to oil was Uber.
Listen to this here, you may die laughing. He should be on Saturday night live.
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/29/gartman-forget-a-freeze-this-is-the-biggest-threat-to-oil.html
Sooooo many clueless…LOL
If you look at the monthly charts of a number of the PM stocks, this move higher is nothing. We have a long ways to go. As mentioned many times, this is the transitional year when hard assets will begin to take precedence over paper assets. Some consolidation of the stocks appear to now be on the cusp. The gold price should continue to trade in a range and it appears we may be on the verge of a descending bullish wedge as reflected in the weekly chart. This certainly is the year to slowly acquire the PM stocks especially now on pull backs. 2017 should continue to be a movement higher for PM stocks and bullion but it shouldn’t be extreme. 2018 will be the year that things could really start to heat up. Most of the PM stocks are now light years from their 200 day smas and 200 week (for some)smas. Consolidation of pricing for a number of weeks would be healthy.
I agree Doc. Long term indicators have just turned…
Many many are not aboard this rally and are bearish as heck. That’s what is needed.
People use to contact me all the way down on this market asking “should I buy”
They gave up and are absolutely clueless on how markets work…
I don’t care about the short term micro managing. That will kill you…
BEST
Doc, until those index’s start breaking out I am not sold on anything. And don’t get me wrong, I played this thing up along with the rest here but I have significant doubt based on my own readings that tell me we could see those bottom numbers again. If and when the break-out happens I will be prepared to sound the all-clear but that time is not here yet.
Bird I hear thst but just maybe the equities have spoken.
Their charts have had many major trend changes.
They look brillant (so far ) technically.
Best
Maybe Bill. All I can do is watch and wait and see how the charts develop.
If metals head higher after a correction then color me bullish and I will eat my words. For now though I am predicting a market selloff for May and that will take down the miners quick as they have been too profitable for most people to not sell them into a decline.
My minds always open to being wrong and your oppinion is respected!
Ill post back with the latest from atop gun that hot heavy in Jan and smoked every pro on the board.
Wish I wasnt married Id come on over to Africa 😍 Some days are better than others!
PS this could be a huge bear market rally. Last look at my guru he said a year NP.
Its heavey copy right have to be careful.
Hi Doc. Thank you very much for providing us with all your insights. I have been an eager listener to your editorials for around a year. And I must admit, I am quite impressed with your calls! Since February you have been calling for the head-and-shoulders formation in gold; a formation that is looking more an more likely. Well done Doc! And thank you very much for being so open on telling us about the indicators and timeframes, you take into your short term analysis.
One thing I would like to remind you, though. On one of the threats back in Feburary, when you were under heavy pressure for calling gold going lower, you said that you would enlighten us with some of your technicals for giving your medium/long term calls.
Do you feel the time is right for a course in looking into your medium/long term scenarios, or is the time not right yet?
The gold chart has bullish and bearish signals. It’s probably best to sit tight a minute.
When 30 to 50% of the gold bugs throw in the towel and vow to never bet on the rigged gold casino again ,, you’ll Know, the the long term bottom is, in”.
The big bad bear won’t end warm and fuzzy.
Chartster, I agree completely with your comment about the bullish/bearish signals regarding the gold chart—then you throw in the COTs commercials deteriorating especially again for silver this week and you see the possibilities for both bulls and bears. May technical charts should be a good month to ascertain whether bulls or bears have the edge going forward. All I know is that I’m not too concerned about the bullion prices since it appears the PM stocks also aren’t. It’s time to accumulate over time as we progress through 2016. Personally, I’ll be 90% invested by the end of the year—right now I’m 35% invested and will add selectively as 2016 moves forward.
Doc,
It looks more certain now than ever that we get a gold flush in conjunction with a stock crash. I’ve been waiting and anticipating this day in time. Seems like an eternity..
I say certain for a gold flush (even when the indicators are not so certain) based on the overall fundamentals and gold bug sentiment.
How anyone could think the NYSE is going to new highs and beyond is quite comical. When it drops a little, and then breaks the 200 and 400 daily MAs, which are sitting close together? I wouldn’t want to be touring Wall Street in early to mid May..
(Might get hit be a jumper..)
There definitely is both a bear and bull case in PMs right now and out of this consolidation will be a direction break; but until we see which way this goes, I’m in a holding pattern, with partial positions in place (only about 20% ideal in PMs, 10% in Base metals, 10% in Agriculture, about a 75% position short-term position in Volatility, a 25% short position in Oil, 15% in Renewable energy, a reduction down to 50% position in Lithium and an increase to 75% of my ideal position in Uranium). The rest is in cash….waiting for a crash…… I don’t have any allocated to Emerging Markets at this time, because the water is so murky, but I’m very interested in starting to add in some Emerging Markets ETFs soon.
Ex,
Interesting positioning.
From a fundamentalist point of view food is beginning to look good.
Rice consumption is projected at 103 to 104% of production and both China and India have been building higher than usual stockpiles. ( I wonder what that implies for the dollar!.)
Weather projections are not good for China, India or the U.S. food-growing regions, which is unusual…..although it is a bit far out yet for good accuracy around harvest time.
Hey CFS, Yes, I would agree – People have to eat……
I’m looking at the soft commodities, fertilizers, and farm land, and am continuing to build on a list of stocks and ETFs in this sector to see where I want to deploy some capital. I’m most likely going to be getting in very heavily into the Agricultural stocks over the next 3-6 months.
Please keep me posted if there are any Agricultural stocks or ETFs you are liking.
__________________________________________________________________________
Here is my current Agricultural watch-list, but I’m going in and finding more all the time. Please let me know if there are any you are following that are not on this list:
(except Monsanto – they are left off this list purposely, but do show up in MOO)
AGRICULTURAL Stocks Funds & ETFs Symbol
ADECOAGRO SA AGRO
AFFINOR GROWERS INC RSSFF
AFRICAN POTASH LIMITED APOTF
AGRIUM INC AGU
AMERICAN FARMLAND COMPANY AFCO
AMERICAN POTASH CORPORATION APCOF
BION ENVIRONMENTAL TECHNOLOGIES INC BNET
BIONITROGEN HOLDINGS CORP BIONQ
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS INC CF
CHINA GREEN AGRICULTURE INC CGA
CHINA SNX ORGANIC FERTILIZERS CO CSNX
COMPASS MINERALS INTERNATIONAL INC CMP
CRESUD S.A.C.I.F.Y.A. CRESY
DANAKALI LTD SBMSF
DB AGRICULTURE DOUBLE LONG FUND DAG
DEERE & COMPANY DE
DUSOLO FERTILIZERS INC ELGSF
ELEMENTS ROGERS AGRICULTURE RJA
ENCANTO POTASH CORPORATION ENCTF
FMC CORPORATION FMC
GENSOURCE POTASH CORP AGCCF
GLOBAL X FERTILZERS/POTASH SOIL
GREAT QUEST FERTILIZER LTD GQMLF
IC POTASH CORPORATION ICPTF
INCITEC PITOV LTD INCZY
INTREPID POTASH INC IPI
IPATH BLMBRG AGRICULTURE SUBINDEX TR ETN JJA
IPATH PURE BETA COFFEE CAFE
ISHARS MSCI GLOBAL AGRICULTUR PRODUCERS VEGI
ISRAEL CHEMICALS LTD ICL
MARKET VECTORS – AGRIBUSINESS MOO
MBAC FERTILLZER CORP MBCFF
MESA EXPLORATION COR MSAJF
MOSAIC COMPANY (THE) MOS
NORTHERN POTASH COMPANY NPTH
NUFARM LTD NUFMF
PJSC URALKALI URAYY
POTASH CORPORATION OF SASKATCHEWAN INC POT
POTASH RIDGE CORPORATION POTRF
POTASH WEST NL PWNNY
POWERSHARES DB AGRICULTURE DBA
POWERSHARES GLOBAL AGRICULTURE PORTFOLIO PAGG
SIRIUS MINERALS PLC SRUXY
SYNGENTA AG SYT
TERRA NITROGEN COMPANY L.P. TNH
TEUCRIUM AGRICULTURAL FUND TAGS
TEUCRIUM SUGAR FUND CANE
US AGRICULTURE INDEX FUND USAG
US-DADI FERTILIZER IND INTERNATIONAL INC USDF
VERDE POTASH PLC AMHPF
YARA INTERNATIONAL ASA YRAIF
Here’s a 3 month Composite Chart of some of the Agricultural Funds and ETFs:
Funds & ETFs featured:
DAG,SOIL,VEGI,PAGG,MOO,JJA,TAGS,USAG,RJA,DBA
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?DAG,SOIL,VEGI,PAGG,MOO,JJA,TAGS,USAG,RJA,DBA&p=2&O=111000
CFS – this Video piece from BNN covers a few different grains and Corn & Soybeans, and agrees with you towards the end that Rice is looking positive:
Hungry for grains? Rice might be the best bet
Fri, Apr 22, 2016 – 11:30 AM
Jack Scoville of The Price Futures Group joins BNN to explain what’s behind the rally in grain prices and why he feels like the rally is overdone. Scoville also says that rice is a good longer term investment.
04:49 PM EDT, 04/22/2016 (MT Newswires) — (Corrects wording in first paragraph to state that gains in the energy and FINANCIAL sectors offset losses in technology, not gains in the energy and technology sectors as stated. A correct version follows.)
The Dow and S&P 500 barely pulled off a positive close on Friday as gains in the energy and financial sectors offset heavy losses in technology stocks. The Nasdaq Composite, however, limped into the close Friday as disappointing earnings from tech giants Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL) contributed to an eight-day low in the index and a lower close for the week.
The blue-chip index closed higher for a second week in a row with a gain of 0.6%, while the S&P 500 was up 0.5% from last Friday. The Nasdaq was 0.6% lower on the week.
Outside of the technology sector, earnings were mixed with McDonalds (MCD) reporting better-than-expected Q1 results thanks to its introduction of “all-day breakfast.” General Electric (GE) beat Q1 earnings estimates, but sales missed estimates, and its full-year guidance fell short of expectations. Caterpillar (CAT) missed both EPS and revenue estimates as it suffered “substantial reductions” in its construction, oil and gas, mining and rail businesses.
In economic news, the purchasing manager’s preliminary April index for the manufacturing sector fell to a 6.5 year low of 50.8 from 51.3 in March, well below expectations for an improvement to 52.0.
Paul, as mentioned previously it appears that we get a bottom in volatility by the end of this coming week or early May. Conventional market bulls best get a little careful.
I sure hope so. I have long oil positions doing well but my Vixy is dragging me down.
Doc – That is what I’m banking on.
Why the worst may not yet be over for Canada’s oil patch
Jameson Berkow, Reporter, BNN – Energy and Resources
April 22, 2016
Tags: Cenovus Energy, Husky Energy, Suncor Energy
I think central banks must have agreed to push the markets higher by pushing oil up despite of the fundamentals. They will try to push this higher than $50 after a small correction down to around $45. Oil is the only thing that is holding up the markets. Earnings are declining and economies are in recession. GDP numbers are barely positive and probably engineered to stay up 1 or 2%. The market has been going up on stock buybacks and short covering. There will be new jobs coming for financial engineers who are experts at adjusted earnings and shell games.
If the market continues going up in May and June, then the next correction could be quite severe just like the big drops in the summer in past years.
I agree Paul that the price structure on crude is coming at a very interesting time. To me it looks like we will see WTI top out next week or early May and if that is true and the correlation between oil and stocks hold then markets are assured of a May/June decline as crude works its way back down to the mid 30’s.
At the same time the dollar is on the rise, CAD may also be near its peak, the VIX is at a very low point and most equity markets are back at the highs. But of course….everybody sees the same thing and we all read the same charts.
My question therefore is this…What will REALLY happen that is not yet known!
Birdman – I have placed my bets along similar expectations with a strengthening dollar, and Oil and the markets topping out in May and then correcting down into the summer, in a sell everything mode. This is why I have layered on a nice long VIX position expecting more volatility to enter the marketplace in about 2 weeks.
I only put on a modest bet myself. Mostly because the VIX is unfamiliar to me as a trade but I have confidence in what you and Doc are saying so I figured lets just do it. The timing does seem about right. Your instincts have been pretty good in the past with this trade. Guess we will see.
Well Volatility is very low at present and the TVIX was at the lowest levels on record last week. That doesn’t mean it can’t keep going lower though, if the stocks go screaming higher, but the VIX won’t stay this low forever. I just don’t like holding leveraged ETFs for very long periods of time as a general rule of thumb, but believe we’ll see the markets get more lively once April rolls over into May. Let the games begin!
I’ll admit my timing was off on TVIX though and I’ve had to average down a few times, because I thought the volatility would already be starting, but was a little early to the party. The last 2 weeks both Oil and the general markets have shrugged off the bad news and gone up for reasons that defy logic. However, the trend in the trend, until it ends…..
If we get a selloff in May then I may use that as my escape hatch to trim TVIX back substantially, but leave a little in place to guard against mayhem.
No worries Shad. It is my biggest fault that I enter trades too early. I am usually right but end up suffering a grind until I get to where I originally wanted to go. I sure don’t blame you for that though. This is kind of a novelty purchase for me so I can accept if I take a few lumps over it until I get how the damned thing is connected together!
Interesting thoughts Paul L. I’ve wondered if that was the case with the Oil markets being propped up to keep the financial institutions and bank s that financed their threatened operations afloat, despite the insane fundamental backdrop for Oil. I do think if this is being done artificially by going against natural market forces, that the next correction in the general markets will be more severe.
I rationalize that if there is going to be a stock market correction of any size it MUST happen now so that it is out of the way long before the US elections. Any later and it might end up being more severe and dump the country into an obvious recession. Certainly nobody would want to risk a correction / crash in the fall.
Yes that makes sense to go ahead and get a mild correction out of the way now and then for the markets to head higher in the fall or at least consolidate higher. That’s my point that if they forego the correction now and the Oil markets are pumped up to keep the banks from failing and the stock markets up in a last ditch attempt during the summer, then the fall may get really ugly. I don’t think that is as likely because it is an election year as you noted, but felt Paul L. had made an interesting point regarding delaying things and how that would set up a bigger decline.
Yup, we are heading into seasonally strong time for oil prices. So an oil correction now makes sense on that basis as it would imply prices rise into the summer and so with them stock markets would rise.
The oil market incidentally is levered off USD with a nice inverse relationship. So if the dollar does rise for a spell then oil will correct down and with just as much likelihood then stock markets will follow lower.
But that would mean a modest kind of correction and not something terrifying or long lasting. Anyone with the cash who wanted to move oil would do it through currency markets as they are pretty much the Wild West of the investment world.
But who has that kind of dough? 😉
I think the next fortnight – last week of April and first week of January – is the last chance for any kind of correction before the US election.
If it does not happen now, hence my posts at the top of the comments, then I think Gary Savage’s call of these markets rising in a new bull will be accurate.
I think that oil and commodities have been pumped partly due to the coming election and partly due to stopping another banking crisis as oil companies go bust.
Here’s a conspiracy thought – when Obama was in Saudi this past week do you think he might have told the Saudis that a low oil price will crash the markets and perhaps make a Saudi-hating Trump more likely to end up in the White House? I am sounding paranoid now myself.
Dollar index is showing an objective of 114. I am not sure why it is that bullish as it is still below the 50 and 200 day averages.
Did Peter Brandt just hint that Bitcoin is a “buy and hold” for him? 🙂
The Loonie had another great week and looks like it is going higher.
Since Clifton Star combined with First Mining Financial earlier this month should you remove their ad on your website? Thank you for the heads up on them. We made a very nice profit.
Now we know why Dolly Varden had a good week…
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2016/04/silver-making-a-big-charge/
Hi birdman and shad! leave some powder dry to deploy it on next june meeting(14th-15th) on vxx,tvix or uvxy.Thank me later guys!!
OK. You sure about that? Based on what if you don’t mind?
Birdman it is the 50 weekly lbb 50.It is still heading south and if projected forward it will intersect the supporting trendline drawn from 6/30/2014 and touching the 7/13/2015;exactly on the fomc meeting i.e. 15th june.Besides that the psar on the weekly is indicating a continuation of the bearish trend and slow stochastics are embedded in the oversold territory and I think that it will remain so until the june fomc meeting.I never take any position when stochastics are in embedded mode being it in oversold or overbought territory because you never know how long it will take to get out of that position. Take note of this birdman and pin it on the notice board.I have been waiting for this moment for long time.
You will have to forgive me Don but I have no idea what you are talking about or what chart you are referring to. What does “50 weekly ibb 50 mean” and what is psar? I have the TVIX chart out and cannot see what the relationship of the dates in 2014 or 2015 are supposed to imply.
You have lost me.
lbb stands for lower bollinger band and the chart I was referring to is the uvxy.Birdman I use various moving averages for the bollinger bands.Depends with charts I am looking at.However the most common are the 20,25 and 50.The psar stands for parabolic sar and it helps you determine the future short-term momentum of a given asset in this case the uvxy.Now if you draw a trendline that touches those dates on a 5yr chart and project it forward it will intersect with the LBB50 on the fomc meeting i.e. 15th june.The potential of this etf is very good birdman.Unbelievably good.I am waiting impatiently to jump aboard.Hope that I have made it a little clearer now birdman.On the whole birdman this etf is gonna be the no1 trade.One of the most profitable imo.
I will put my glasses on next time. I was reading ibb instead of LBB and although I assumed you meant Bollingers was confused what the letter i was supposed to mean.
I have never used parabolic SAR. No idea how to use it.
My technical approach works best when I don’t complicate things too much because mixing it all up gives so many false signals. Anyway, I looked but am not following you. Maybe if you post your chart.
Birdman I see what I can do next week ok so you can get a better picture of what I am talking about.Atm I am using the yahoo interactive chart but it is very limited for charting.The site I normally use are having some technical problems atm.
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/uvxy/interactive-chart
I may just do that Don Corlelone. Thanks man!
My plan is to lighten up my TVIX load in May if there is an increase in Volatility and then I may redeploy more long volatility positions in mid June if the markets get complacent.
The correlation between UVXY and TVIX are almost a mirror match, and I’ve traded both, and expect them to have very large moves in the summer, but at least a decent bump in May/June.
George Carlin And The Big Club and you’re not in it. My son reminded me it was time to watch George Carlin again, he’s right especially if you consider The US primaries:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cKUaqFzZLxU
George Carlin was one of the best. He always cracks me up even on the replays.
Matthew been following your views from down under
Much appreciated.
Australian based gold miners bottomed earlier than us/canadian and some have had incredible runs
See st barb mining 10c to 2.30
Saracen 15c to 1.15
Aud gold is 250 bucks from all time high approx
Miners have s 50% margin over AISC
Any followers of perseus out there??
Hello OzChris, I don’t follow Perseus but I think Skeeta and Excelsior do. I’m glad you brought it up at this time, though; it looks like something I might want to buy. The weekly chart looks good and it looks cheap at .5 times book, .8 times sales, and 3.1 times cashflow. For comparison, Richmont Mines comes in at 3.3, 3.5, and 11.8, respectively.
I think that the commodity sector as a whole will end this year a lot higher than most people expect and it will have absolutely nothing to do with fundamentals.
Golfing with the President.
Where’s Mr. Big Al today?
Here is a new one. It comes from Tom McClellan and it identifies a pattern he calls the Fishhook. I have never heard of it but maybe others here have. Anyway, the pattern now appears on his gold charts on the price oscillator and it indicates a significant fall in price as he notes:
————————————-
“The message to take away from this fishhook structure in gold prices is that it tells us there is the strong potential for a big decline, something which the COT data have been calling for recently, as we have discussed each Friday” — Tom McClellan April 15, 2016
Fishhook Signal For Gold — McClellan Financial Publications
https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/fishhook_signal_for_gold/
CFTC didn’t know of Deutsche’s market-rigging settlement until asked by GATA
12:23p ET Saturday, April 23, 2016
Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:
While it may be hard to believe, it seems that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission was unaware of Deutsche Bank’s agreement to settle a class-action lawsuit accusing it of manipulating the gold and silver markets until GATA repeatedly sought to bring the matter to the commission’s attention over the last week.
The news of the settlement agreement broke with Reuters and Bloomberg News reports on Wednesday and Thursday, April 13 and 14 continued….
too funny………….The CFTC was hoping no one was paying attention….now they may have to get off their duff……..
They leave the door wide open for claw back on the “supposed” 5 year silver investigation.
On the TSX, 48 of the top 100 losers on Friday were gold and silver mining companies. I think that tells us the market got the message that precious metals topped last week and nobody had any doubts about it. Those are daunting numbers. Just a few issues rose.
I would disagree with that statement, Bird.
One down day is one down day.
It mat be followed by more, but topping is, as yet, an illusion ( or painted tape) to allow commercials to close their naked shorts. One of these days they will fail, but as long as there are over-leveraged longs to be taken to the cleaners they will succeed.
CFS, have you been reading any of the popular blogs on gold and silver? They are overwhelmingly bullish and all one-sided. What that data above tells me is that the market ain’t buying the hype because if it were there would still be people jumping in and pushing up prices.
Genuine bull markets don’t behave like this. Buying and selling pressure are more even when there is a setback in the underlying commodity.
This just proves what a lot of BS the newsletter crowd is full of since they are furiously pumping even as the market is selling into the declines of gold and silver. Basically this is just what I have been saying all along…. we just have a bunch of speculators who rode the thing up and are now bailing out with their parachutes.
Where are all the suckers who normally hold these stock bulls up?
I tell you CFS, you are going to learn in time that I was damned right in picking the exact day and virtually the exact time of this top in silver with my comments last week. I called it as it happened in real time. Nobody else did that because nobody else can.
And that is why I have so many fans……
Next week the COMEX silver trading calendar is loaded with significant contract dates. On Tuesday, May 2016 silver options go off the board. The following day:
May 2016 E-mini Silver Futures – Last Trade Date
April 2016 Silver Futures – Last Trade Date
April 2016 1,000-oz. Silver Futures – Last Trade Date
I would expect the manipulation cartel to try and keep the price of silver under $17 thru to Thursday April 29. After that I would expect a relaxation of the manipulation, because they must be bleeding physical.
I understand where traders are coming from, but I do not understand their behavior in terms of risk-reward analysis.
What’s the possible maximum downside in silver? Maybe 10%
What’s the possible upside longer term? Perhaps more than 300% or even more.
With that risk-reward ratio, does penny-pinching make sense against the possibility of lack of availability?
Brien Lundin, in the April, 2016, edition of the Gold Newsletter, refreshed his buy of Riverside Resources Inc. Mr. Lundin has said buy twice before (may 2015 and February, 2016.
Riverside news recently: its work on the Tajitos project, its staking of the Ariel project and its sale of the Sugarloaf Peak project. Centerra Gold Inc. has the option to earn 70 per cent of the Tajitos project by spending $6-million (U.S.) within four years. The companies have planned a 6,500-metre drill program consisting of 1,500 metres of core drilling on the western and central portions of the claim, and 5,000 metres of reverse circulation drilling on the neighbouring Tejo claims. At its newly acquired Ariel project, Riverside will conduct additional surface testing to follow up on several gold and copper targets. Lastly, Riverside has sold its Sugarloaf Peak gold project to Croesus Resources for $292,000 cash and a 2-per-cent net smelter return royalty.
I own some riverside stock.
CFS – Thanks for that post on Riverside Resources. They’ve been getting some buzz lately, but this was a nice update.
This sure is an active thread for a Saturday. Great job Al and Cory!
HECK BIRD MAN YOU PUT UP ………46 PIECE OF INFO. YOURSELF………….LOL
Ready to cry Uncle yet?
OK, I will stop. Time for bed. Hope you enjoyed my stories today.
Just a few words on TVIX or related leveraged ETF’s for Shad……
Sometimes too much is made of the idea of ETF decay. We can all appreciate that decay does exist but in relative time periods up to several months when these are purchased at chart-lows it is still easy to attain absolute gains.
If you are buying when a market is trending in your favour or you have arrived at extreme lows then holding is not as risky as is suggested by many people. I have an example of course so you see what I mean.
The key here though is that the ETF must be bought at the lows relative to past low points and be expected to rise at some reasonable time within a few months (not days…so we can all stop worrying so much).
You only need to concentrate on the absolute dollars that the trade is bought or sold for and no consideration needs to be given to the vague concept of decay that almost nobody can properly define anyway.
So see the linked chart below. It is TVIX on a one year chart. We can all agree that one year is a VERY long time in the 2X and 3X ETF world and EVERYBODY will tell you that you cannot hold that long or your account will go bust.
But is that true? Well just observe the chart and the question will answer itself.
If you had bought at the low of 5.33 on August 10th 2015 and for some reason were hospitalized and could not sell for many months you still would have had the chance to exit at the peak on Feb 11th, 2016 at a price of 12.74 which was more than a doubling of your money.
That was a profit of 7.41 in a time span of almost exactly half a year. So in spite of the much fretted decay it was still possible to come out ahead and not have to sell at the end of every day as every internet wonk wants you to know.
Why is that possible? Well in a nutshell, VIX itself is so volatile and the differences between highs and lows so extreme that it is almost guaranteed you will see gains even over relatively long time periods if you bought off the chart-lows when the ETF was beginning to trend up.
And in every single year that I looked at there was a volatility spike within a six month period off the bottom. In the appended chart there was in fact 8 peaks that would have yielded a profit over the course of 9 months had you bought in August 2015. The odds were not actually all that bad just by being patient and not getting scared out of the position due to the idea that decay would ruin you.
So it comes down to timing. Being a little early or a little late did not change the dynamics that much either. What seems to be most important is to watch the lower bound as that is fairly stable over periods of up to a year. It is the spikes upward that are much less predictable and profit will vary depending on how much fear is in the market.
I guess the trick is to be certain your low is a good low that can be held.
And if you bought in at a fairly low risk price it did not hurt to just wait for the market to come to you. Doc has mentioned this before and had success just buying at a certain price range using VIX itself as the proxy to judge entry points. It seems to me there are more costs involved in jumping in and out and trying to time the spikes than just simply waiting it out if you are confident.
Sorry if this was a boring post.
PS: There was a 1/10 split in July of 2015 so disregard anything prior to that date.
TVIX on a one year chart…….Just watch the lower bound.
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=TVIX+Interactive#{%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
An added note:
Use the VIX chart itself as your proxy to determine the entry points on TVIX or similar leveraged ETF’s. You will get guidance there because the VIX itself has excellent stability on the lower bound of the chart and the regularity of the rise and fall of price is clearly visible.
That is to say you can easily read the cycles from peak to peak and valley to valley off a weekly chart giving you added confidence that your purchase zone is within an acceptable timing band.
That will minimize mistakes and maximize profits. As you will readily notice the VIX futures chart demonstrates a repeating pattern of rising and falling cycles that can be understood comfortably even by those people who are new to trading.
So now we can all relax again!! 🙂
Here is the VIX chart that I am referring too. There are others but i prefer the futures.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=VX&p=w1
Thanks for that post Birdman, and I am very much in agreement. I’ve posted quite often on KER in the past that the decay doesn’t concern me in leveraged instruments nearly as much as the price I buy and the price I sell the ETF for. If there’s a profit in the end, then I don’t lose any sleep over the decay. However…..
In general, I like moving in and out of the ETFs intra-day or over a few days, but have held leveraged ETFs for several weeks to even months before to get back to target sell in it. When I deploy reasonable positions in them, it is generally to scalp a 10-30% move relatively quickly and then put those gains into individual stocks. So when a leveraged ETF moves against, me and takes a 25% haircut then it disappoints me when my timing is off, because meanwhile I could have been in another stock or ETF while waiting.
These are times where there is “Opportunity Cost” to have money that get’s tied up in one asset that is trending sideways (and in a leveraged ETF this does start decaying down the price). You can see the decay at work in the arbitrage when a leveraged ETF like TVIX hits a certain share price based on the proxy index it is tracking (in this case the VIX), and then moves down and the primary index comes back to this same point, but the share price in TVIX is now slightly lower (less bang for the buck as the future contracts roll over inside the ETF).
Really the Opportunity Cost is my only real concern, because there are other areas I’d like to have the flexibility to move into quickly if necessary. I have no doubts about volatility spiking again, as I’m mentioned repeatedly that it is like a volcano or a geyser and is only a matter of time before it goes off again. My concern is that if it takes another week or two to spike that the return will not be as large as if it had spiked last week for example….due to the gradual nibbling of decay.
Very good thoughts though and I agree with the general thought process and main points that it is fine to hold the leverage ETFs “IF” you believe the price will come back to certain point with very high probability.
Cheers and may everyone have good luck in their investing to close up the month of April.
Thanks Shad. Good post. Anyway, my comments all came about after I started to research TVIX a little more. Holy-Moly is there ever a lot of conflicting information out there about these instruments. Just proves you have to do your own digging because most seem to misunderstand them. I read commentary all over the map and a lot of parrots repeating the same wrong information.
I may add to this one again if it drops further.
And one last word on that futures chart noted above. The week is now over and that bullish reversal candle on this weekly chart is in play. It is a healthy spike low candle. We can all appreciate those. So that tells me it could be just days or at most a couple weeks before VIX itself starts to rise back up.
How high is anybodies guess but the formation on the bottom of that 5 year chart is suggestive and odds are that the move will be of some significance so I will be holding my own position until it resolves itself.
Note for reference that the lower bound of price is now curving upward.
A good post. Patience is important. I started buying vixy in the 13 area and adding 300 shares very 30 cents down all the way to around 10.46. It always comes back to near the long term average of 14 to 15.
Hi you all! I am a Dutch investor. If you could only choose one stock in the resource sector with ( in Your opinion) the most explosive upside what would it be? I have a boatload of Sirios buy it had risen much already! Appreciated Your comments fellow investors.
JDST — Does this chart really tell you that Jnior miners are about to soar ever higher? I don’t think so. Look at the falling curve as it forms a rounding bottom. We are almost there in fact and in just a weeks time may see this one hit bottom.
So there is indeed value in watching leveraged ETF’s for guidance on what is really happening in the markets. I have heard other traders say you cannot use them for technicals….what a bunch of rubbish!
Of course you can. How eslse would you play them. And because they are levered they are more respoonsive to the underlying action as they move faster both up and down.
So you can visually see what is coming around the next bend.
Well in this particular case, JDST has fallen from a high of 40.00 dollars to a low of 2.53 in a matter of 90 days. It now presents a very low risk set up to take advantage of the upside that appears to be in the works as metals fall back.
We don’t need to win the world here folks. But this one stands to gain a very easy double if bought a little further down the road once the bottom of the rounding curve has been more clearly established.
JDST – Looks to me it is forming a nice rounded bottom. Give it a little more time and we will know with more certainty. This is my opinion only. Never trade according to what I am doing since I am sometime wrong!
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=JDST+Interactive#{%22range%22:%226mo%22,%22allowChartStacking%22:true}
A collapse in the miners?
I see no need to hedge to the downside just yet.
It maybe volatile?
But I see further upside in the nexy few weeks before any sort of sizable correction.
Cheers.
Who said collapse? Just read the chart for what it says. The picture is classic and obvious.
This week, with the Fed meeting, will tell us everything about where all these markets are going re interest rates. We all know that.
I do not have a crystal ball as to what the Fed will do.
If you can divine anything at all from the Fed meetings you are a genius Bob. I am just left scratching my head by all the double talk and heavy emphasis the market puts on a single word or two.
What I do know is that no matter what we think will happen it always plays out a lot slower than we first guess and the results are virtually always less extreme than imagined.
We probably worry too much as a group. The Doomer’s you mentioned yesterday have just become exhausting if not a bore. There are more and more writers and video bloggers I simply will not read or listen to anymore as they are chronically in a panic mode and trying to sow fear in the ranks.
The most recent ones I kicked off my computer are the likes of Greg Hunter and all the hacks he invites on his show that pose as experts. What a shit show that is over at USAWatchdog.
Clive Maund says that he is getting ‘out of Dodge’ according to the latest posted article headline on his site. I don’t have a subscription but I assume he means getting out of gold/silver and also, perhaps, conventionals.
Ignoring that, it will be interesting what gold and silver does in overnight Asian trading.
greg hunter is a goldbug birdman and I take his words with a pinch of salt.Besides that he states publicly that one his best friend is greg mannarino who happens to be a goldbug too.Too biased to take him seriously.His shows are a dog and pony shows
It seems to me that Clive got out of Dodge 6 or 7 weeks ago.
Most never made it to Dodge at all.
Funny Matthew. Some never even stepped out the front door to head towards Dodge, much less needing to get out of Dodge. Having said that I am mostly out of my mining positions now and down to about a 20% ideal allocation. I have a few small positions in place on my favorites, and will jump back in the PMs signal they are going to make another move higher, but for now I’m more interested in adding to positions if they go back on sale again.
Cheers!
I have taken substantial profits but remain very heavily invested because I have put those profits into into other miners. PGM was one such miner and it flew from my average .14 to 55 cents. The same goes for UEX, JAG, SGN, DV, ERS, and a couple others. All have done so well that it’s as if I sold much more of my winners than I did.
Many weekly charts are overbought but many are also showing little, if any, weakness.
I should have said “PGM IS one such miner…” because I still own it.
I’m familiar with all of those except ERS. Do you mean Empire Resources?
Out of the ones you mentioned I also hold positions in Scorpio Gold, Jaguar Mining, and Dolly Varden Silver. I’ve considered UEX again recently, and have owned it in the past, but my current Athabasca Basin exposure is confined to Denison, Fission, and NexGen. I like Canalaska too, but until it pulls back again like UEX, then I’m focused o the US producers for now that remain very undervalued:
My biggest holding on the US side of the Uranium story are in (UUUU) Energy Fuels, (URG) Ur-Energy, (UEC) UEC Corp, and I added to all of them over the last 2 weeks. In addition, I just got back into (URRE) Uranium Resources last week, after jumping out when they announced their reverse split. Now that the dust has settled and they are back on track, I wanted to have exposure to them because I respect their history as a past producer, don’t thing the marketplace has properly valued their mines and assets that are permitted and some that are on standby for higher prices, but the biggest near-term catalyst is that they bought Anatolia Energy in Turkey and will be fast-tracking the low cost insitu mining there to supply the European markets.
ERS is up about 50% from my average price:
OK Eros Resources – you meant (ERC) and not (ERS). FYI – ERS is Empire Resources.
Yes I also own Eros Resources under the OTC version (BPUZF), because I held Anthem Resources and when Boss Power acquired Anthem Resources last year, I let all my shares get transferred over into the new entity Eros Resources. Boss finally won a long standing legal dispute and with that cash bought out Anthem, who had a really great asset but no money. It seems like the perfect combination in my opinion, and I did average down in it after the merger, but my shares in this one are still underwater because of my original cost basis from the Anthem shares.
It has been sitting dead in the water most of the year but has started to move again recently. It’s interesting that you picked them in the Uranium space Matthew. Just out of curiosity, what led you to pick them over some of the other companies?
I’m glad you posted on Eros Resources Matthew, as I had not see there last 2 recent press releases, and after such a long news vacuum, this is likely what got things moving again:
______________________________________________________________________
April 19, 2016
Eros Converts Skeena Loan to Shares
Eros Resources Corp. (TSX.V: ERC) has informed Skeena Resources Limited, subject to TSX Venture Exchange approval, that it will convert its $1.5 million loan into 25,000,000 Skeena common shares at a deemed price of $0.06 per share. In June of 2015, Eros originally earned an interest in the Spectrum property for a $1.5 million demand loan to be applied towards eligible exploration expenditures. The loan was convertible into Skeena shares at Eros’ option.
Here is another news release that Eros Resources just put out:
Eros Reports on Winter Drill Program at Murphy Lake, Saskatchewan
April 21, 2016
Lastly – Eros couldn’t ask for a better JV partner than Denison.
Murphy Lake is a joint venture between Denison, the operator (68.8% interest) and Eros Resources Corp. (31.2% interest). The property is located approximately 30 kilometres from the McClean Lake mill in the northern area of the Athabasca Basin. The Athabasca Basin is generally regarded as a premiere uranium district, well known for hosting the highest grade uranium deposits in the world.
I may just have to average down in Eros one last time now that they are finally doing exploration work again, and I really like that they picked up 32 million shares of Skeena Resources. That is the icing on the cake and I totally missed that last week but was traveling when the news was announced.
Fun times!
Oops, sorry about that!
As with UEX, I bought Eros because I thought I could make a quick buck (and I did). Their cash position and Ron Netolitzky’s involvement made me comfortable with getting stuck with it I turned out to be wrong about the quick buck.
Ron delivered a nice win for me with Brett Resources years ago when it was taken out by Osisko.
No worries mate. It is just fun that you are finally investing in Uranium companies.
Please keep me posted on any others that catch you fancy. I’m very active in the Uranium space, but nobody can track all the announcements, gyrations, and updates on all these companies, so any thoughts are always appreciated.
That’s encouraging about Ron Netolitzky’s involvement. I didn’t follow Brett Resources, but it sounds like he is good at building value in a company.
Maybe they can build up Eros Resources so that Denison takes them over. Denison wanted to takeover Fission last year, but that fell through, so maybe they’ll go after Eros instead?
I have a nice sized position in Denison for the very reason that they have proved themselves as a prior producer, they sold all their US assets to Energy Fuels, and just recently JV’d all their African assets. Denison’s primary focus is now on the Athabasca basis and I like that they have a stake in one of the only mills and processing centers in the Athabasca. I could see them bringing Eros under their umbrella over time, once these exploration programs define the resources a bit more. Very exciting times in exploration in the Athabasca Basin!
The funny thing is, I only learned of ERC’s existence because of the joint venture they have with a company I already own.
It can pay to look at all angles when trying to find new ideas. 🙂
Yes, this is true. It is good to look at things from a few different angles. I would say half the people found Boss due to their Gold/Silver/Copper assets, and the other half found them due to the Uranium deposits. They are kind of like Brazil Resources in that sense.
I typically look at JV relationships and have an above average hit rate on takeovers for just this reason, but it doesn’t always play out like one thinks. For example, I thought that Anthem Resources would buy out Boss Power’s interest in the Murphy Lake property because at that time, Boss was in trouble and I thought they’d want it off their shoulders. Instead, Boss got the big cash injection and bought out Anthem. I guess it doesn’t matter as they made more sense together.
As for the Skeena Resources angle, that is just another pleasant wildcard between the two companies that adds value to both companies. I was wondering how Skeena was going to pay Eros back, but they did it with shares, which works for me because I like some of the exploration Skeena is doing.
Then there is the JV with Mega at Bruce River.
Bruce River, Labrador
Status: Exploration
Commodity: Uranium, copper
Ownership: 26.66% interest by Eros Resources
Operator: Mega Uranium
Mega is an interesting Uranium company with JVs with a number of companies and stock in a few companies like NexGen.
Next up Eros Resources Corp. holds the 100% owned Chateau Fort Au-Ag-Cu-Zn property in north-central Quebec. The property adjoins the “167” property of Visible Gold Mines Inc. and is currently optioning this project out to Tarku Resources Ltd., so there is yet another JV of sorts.
Then Eros also has the Eastgate Gold Project — High-Grade Epithermal Gold-Silver System in Nevada. What I like about this is that there are several historic mines exist on the property including: Gold Ledge, Double Eagle, Eastgate, Sunny Jim, and Central.
One of their other very interesting Gold/Silver properties is the Bell Mountain Project is located southeast of Reno, Nevada. This is one where they have more defined resources already but I actually hold out more interest in their Eastgate Gold Project — High-Grade Epithermal Gold-Silver System in Nevada. Franco-Nevada did a lot of work on the Eastgate, as did Echo Bay Mines, Kermode Resources, and Blueridge Gold in the past. I’m very curious to see how both of these properties unfold.
Again, it is wild that they have so much exposure to Precious Metals and some interesting work going on there, but then the more interesting JV projects with Denison and Mega. Really I could see Eros spinning out either their Precious Metals projects or Uranium JVs into a separate company one day as they have 2 different tracks that they are on. In my opinion they have a bit of an identity crisis (just like Alkane Resources that I’ve been writing about recently), and it is most likely that Mid-tier Gold company will buy out one set of assets, and that Denison would take over their Uranium assets one day.
For now it is an exciting company to be part of…..
It was through Bell Mountain that I found Eros. Here’s the company that optioned the property to them:
I don’t think I’ve mentioned it here since last year.
Wow. That’s an impressive list of JV partners and royalty interests for Globex Mining. Where have I been on this project generator…..never heard of it, but I like many of their partners. Thanks Matthew, I’m going to do so more digging on this one.
130 Projects
69 Precious Metals
• Gold, Silver, Platinum, Palladium
43 Base Metals & Polymetallic
• Copper, Zinc, Lead, Nickel (Gold, Silver)
Specialty Metals & Minerals
18 • Talc, Iron, Lithium, Magnesium Oxide, Manganese,
Mica, Molybdenum, Rare Earths, Titanium, Silica,
Bismuth, Pyrophyllite, Vanadium, Antimony, Feldspar
40 Royalties
Owned Properties 6 Active options
• Cash payments
• Share payments
• Exploration & Development expenditures
• Gross Numerous and Royalties
Assets include over 30 Former Mines
49 Historical or NI 43‐101 Resources
Ah – I see it now on the Globex Mining Corporate presentation – page 12
http://www.globexmining.com/documents/2016-02-18-Globex-updated_newversion_001.pdf
MID TERM POTENTIAL: Bell Mountain
Eros Resources is studying putting our Au, Ag deposit in Nevada
into production via open pit, and heap leach methods
We hold an Advance Royalty (2016) and a 3% GMR
And there’s this:
“In a March 2, 2012 press release, Globex reported the results of a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA), prepared by Jacobs Minerals Canada Inc. and Micon International Limited. This report, also based upon the first 20 years of operation projected gross revenue of $2.58 billion, an after tax IRR of 20% and the production of 2,470,000 tonnes of high grade talc and 2,381,000 tonnes of magnesia.”
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/globex-receives-mining-lease-timmins-155549299.html
This has been an eye opener, because I’ve been so focused on the Uranium side of the equation with Eros Resources, that some of the Precious Metals background has escaped me. In fairness, I became a shareholder though a Uranium acquisition, so mentally I weighted that part of their business more heavily, but the precious metals side has much more potential than I realized.
Good stuff!
Management has a lot of experience, too. Here’s a very good example:
Ian Atkinson – Director
Ian Atkinson, M.Sc, A.K.C., D.I.C., a geologist, is currently a Director of Globex as well as Kinross following his appointment in February 2016. Mr. Atkinson was previously President and CEO, and a Director, of Centerra Gold before retiring in 2015. He has more than 40 years of experience in the mining industry with extensive background in exploration, project development and mergers and acquisitions. Prior to his ten-year tenure at Centerra, Mr. Atkinson held various senior leadership positions with Hecla Mining Company, Battle Mountain Gold, Hemlo Gold Mines and the Noranda Group. Mr. Atkinson has contributed to the discovery of several major mineral deposits and been involved in a number of large global mining projects in his career.
Mr. Atkinson holds a Bachelor of Science degree in geology from King’s College, University of London and a Masters degree in geophysics from the Royal School of Mines, University of London.
Mr. Atkinson is the current Chair of the Compensation Committee.
In case there was any doubt, I own it. 😉
Yes, their specialty metals and minerals JVs show promise. Globex is a very complex company.
Well I’m thinking of just peppering some money between a few of the project generators and mineral banks:
Strategic Metals, Eurasian Minerals, Transition Metals, Midland Exploration, Aurico Metals, Millrock Resources, Arena Minerals, First Mining Finance, Oban Mining, Abitibi Royalties, Altius Minerals and now Globlex Mining.
Maybe I’ll just start storing some gains from other trades in these as longer term bets. I plan on doing the same thing by storing some gains into the streaming companies.
I guess I’d throw Eros Resources, Typhoon Exploration, and Idaho North into the project generator category as well.
I store gains in future winners all the time. I call them profit dumpsters.
Profit Dumpsters – I love it. 🙂
Thank you very much for a fantastic weekend show! I really enjoyed SEG 3 with VS.
I belive the Shanghai Fix is going to be a Big game changer for gold.
Can you pls dig more in to this in future editorials?
I Think Excelsior or Matthew mentioned this spin out from Strategic Metals last year?
Silver Range Resources ltd SNG. I Think they have a lot of exploration upside.
The Hammer Zone is a bonanza-grade silver-rich epithermal vein system that was discovered in late 2011. It is located only 12 km from the Faro mine and mill site. High-grade rock samples assaying from 1,420 to 16,985 g/t silver were collected over a 350 m strike length and are associated with a 700 m long by 100 to 200 m wide soil geochemical anomaly. This anomaly is characterized by very high silver (5 to 68.6 g/t) and antimony (2.64 to 27.2 ppm) values and extends under glacial cover at both ends.
A total of 20 holes (4,197 m) have been completed at the Hammer Zone since 2012. Broadly-spaced drilling traced three subparallel veins for strike lengths of up to 600 m and through a vertical range of 280 m. Fifteen of the 20 drill holes intercepted one or more veins in a grade range between 237 and 4,620 g/t silver. The weighted average of 16 individual vein intercepts is 807 g/t silver over an average drill intersected width of 0.66 metres. All veins are open for extension along strike and to depth.
Silver Range Resources considers the Hammer Zone to be very significant because of the exceptional grades and proximity to infrastructure. It is an excellent complement to the bulk tonnage polymetallic mineralization at the Keg Zone.
high-grade silver mineralization was discovered in 2012 at the Cody Zone, 500 m southeast of the Hammer Zone. Eleven rock samples taken from an 800 by 500 m area of talus assayed greater than 1,000 g/t silver, with a peak value of 16,069 g/t silver. The Cody Zone has not yet been drilled and is a priority exploration target for 2013. The Cody Zone appears to be an epithermal vein system similar in tenor to the Hammer Zone.
Hi Pete,
What I like about Strategic Metals is that they have substantial ownership in a number of interesting exploration projects, so they have spread the risk around. They do this through their “Investment Fund” where they have stashed money in these different companies. You’ll see that Silver Range Resources is one of them:
Shares acquired through agreements, private placements and open markets as of January 28, 2016:
Company Number of Shares
Alix Resources Corp. 119,247
Arcus Development Group Inc. 3,333,333
ATAC Resources Ltd. 10,144,136
Golden Predator Mining Corp. 42,857
Kesselrun Resources Ltd. 3,300,000
Largo Resources 20,000
Midnight Sun Capital Corp. 1,000,000
New Dimension Resources Ltd. 365,646
Orefinders Resources Inc. 3,700,000
Orestone Mining Corp. 588,235
Palisades Ventures Inc. 122,222
Precipitate Gold Corp. 15,068,827*
Prima Diamond Corp. 50,000
Rockhaven Resources Ltd. 49,047,500
Silver Predator Corp 2,017,000
Silver Range Resources Ltd. 9,480,340
Till Capital 281
Wolverine Minerals Corp. 1,745,761
Shares acquired through the investment fund as of January 28, 2016:
Company Number of Shares
Alexco Resource Corp. 100,000
Arcus Development Group Inc. 70,500
Aurvista Gold Corp. 300,000
Blackice Enterprise Risk Management 825,000
Briacell Therapeutics Corp. 76,923
Carlin Gold Corp. 450,000
Constantine Metal Resources Ltd. 200,000
Copper One Inc. 30,000
Cordoba Minerals Corp. 230,000
Dunnedin Ventures Inc. 31,727
Great Bear Resources Ltd. 80,000
Indigo Exploration Inc. 300,000
Inform Resources 37,500
Iron Tank Resources Corp. 4,444
Midnight Sun Capital Corp. 500,000
Mundoro Capital Inc. 250,000
New Dimension Resources Ltd. 100,000
Northern Lion Gold Corp. 20,438
Northquest Ltd. 19,000
Orestone Mining Corp. 250,000
Potash Ridge Corp. 100,000
Rackla Metals Inc. 15,000
Radius Gold Inc. 100,000
Source Exploration Corp. 200,000
By being a project generator they get exposure to a menu of projects and build royalty interests in them. For example, here are the Royalty Holdings of Strategic Metals:
Royalty Holdings
Property Royalty Status Company
CORD 1% NSR Exploration Tarsis Resources
HAS 2% NSR* Exploration Wolverine Minerals Corp.
HYLAND GOLD 1/4% NSR Exploration Argus Metals Corp
REE 2% NSR Exploration Yankee Hat Minerals Ltd.
REEF 2% NSR* Exploration Precipitate Gold Corp.
BORNEO 2% NSR* Exploration Precipitate Gold Corp.
BLOOM 2% NSR* Exploration Precipitate Gold Corp.
Clarification: the 9,480,340 shares of Silver Range Resources that Strategic Metals owns is under the category of holding they have through agreements, private placements and open markets. You get the general idea though that they have their fingers in a number of pies…..
I like Strategic Metals too,my thoughts in this case was to also own shares in Silver Range Resources,thinking SNG.V could have bigger % moves?
Thank you Excelsior,much appreciated as Always.
Yes some of the individual stocks may very well have larger percentage moves, and that is a valid point Pete.
What I like about Strategic Metals or Eurasian Minerals or Millrock Resources or Transition Metals or Aurico Metals or Altius Minerals or any of the prospect generators is that they have spread their risk among a number of projects and have the royalty credits to keep growing. However, while this business model gives them more stability than a 1 or 2 trick pony, it may also limit upside moves. I can see an investment thesis for both, and I wish you all the best with Silver Range Resources.
Pete, you will definitely capture greater moves by holding SNG directly – both up and down. With silver starting a new bull market, this would be the time to take the extra risk if you are going to, no doubt about that.
The nice thing about Strategic is the instant diversification for the price of one commission. If things go wrong for SNG, the impact on SMD’s shares won’t be nearly as great since SMD has much larger positions in other miners. Of course, the same is true if things go right.
It just depends on your risk tolerance and what you think of SNG.
Thanks Ex and Pete re Strategic metals.
53 of the posts this weekend have been put up by Birdman: Holy Smioke that equates to over 23%!!
So what?
One massive yawn.
Thanks for the contribution. I can always rely on your negativity.
Only because you asked…
lol
Thx for the posting this weekend Bird.
Youve made the blog worth reading.
Actually tho, I prefer more of the rapier wit and charm if you wouldnt mind.
Thanks bb. I think the Reverend has a hemorrhoid this weekend.
Is that good comedy? 🙂
Or constipation BM!?
Ya so what.
At least he has some insight.
Thanks,Excelsior.
(I am not a shareholder of SNG.V)
Oh sorry. I thought you had started a position in Silver Range Resources. Well, then, good luck if you do decide to start a position in it. I’m likely going to start a position in Strategic Metals soon and will just own it along with many others in that capacity.
Cheers!
Thank you guys.
Birdman – the Canadian answer to ‘Angry Birds’ 😎
Some food for thought guys.Enjoy!
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye042416.pdf
GURU RATING ON HOYE……………….40%
Yes,there are warning signs,overbought,high RSI etc.
I listened to Bob Hoye on TalkDigitalNetwork April 22,it will be interesting to se how this plays out.
I talked to Brian at IA (Bob Hoye). They are being careful at this jucture. If I had of listed I would have left a pile on the table.
Weldon was bearish the Dollar bullish gold longr term. He was in this hugh PM stock rally day one and was warning in Dec to prepare to load up for longer term. Nobody I know made that call after being bearish for eons.
Im going to check back for new material today.
I’ve been loaded up the whole way and also would have missed a LOT of gains had I listened to people like Clive Maund and many others.
In addition to the appointment of Mr. Power, Silver Range has agreed to purchase a portfolio of gold exploration projects from Panarc Resources Ltd. (“Panarc”), a private company. The portfolio consists of the following six prospects:
the Up Town gold project, a high grade granitoid hosted Archean gold target located in the Northwest Territories (adjacent to a multi-million ounce past producer);
three iron formation hosted gold targets in the Contwoyto Lake – Back River area of Nunavut (including the Esker Lake prospect); and
two epithermal gold targets covering small past producers in the Santa Fe District and the Kawach Range in west-central Nevada.
All six projects are wholly-owned by Panarc. Silver Range will acquire a 100% interest in each of the projects through the issuance to Panarc of 10 million Silver Range common shares. Panarc will not retain any royalty or other residual interest in any of the projects. Completion of the purchase of the projects is subject to Silver Range shareholder approval and TSX Venture Exchange acceptance.
The appointment of Mr. Power as President and Chief Executive Officer and the purchase of the six gold projects marks a move by Silver Range away from its current Yukon focused silver-lead-zinc exploration model to a broader project generative business model concentrating on gold projects. The primary generative focus will be projects located in Nunavut, the Northwest Territories and Nevada, but other jurisdictions, excluding the Yukon Territory and British Columbia, will be considered as exploration opportunities are identified.
In addition to Mike Power’s personal experience, Silver Range will have access to the collective expertise of a Yellowknife based exploration group that has worked across the Northwest Territories and Nunavut for 35 years and has made or significantly contributed to numerous precious metals, diamond and base metal discoveries.
Silver Range will continue to hold its current Yukon projects, but has no plans to carry out additional silver-lead-zinc exploration until global markets for those metals improve significantly.(i think this is what Rick rule talked about on Palisade Radio,Do nothing,until metals prices rise)
Thanks for the posts on Silver Range, Pete. I have exposure to it through Strategic Metals’ 19.9% stake in the company.
Silver Range Resources
Thank you,Matthew
Pete – I replied back to you above on Strategic Metals and broke down their most recent filings of stocks that they hold and their existing royalty holdings.
Investorplace: Thursday’s trading action was marked by a theme I discussed in the previous Daily Market Outlook — a defiant U.S. dollar.
The European Central Bank’s announcement that it will keep its key interest rate unchanged led to some wild swings in the EUR/USD currency pair. An initial selling spree in the euro was quickly stopped and the dollar began to rally.
While the dollar still has more to prove if this is indeed an intermediate-term bottoming phase, its defiant move higher, particularly if it accelerates, could act as a serious headwind for stocks.
Over the past few days, I have raised several warning flags about the sustainability of stocks’ big rally off the January/February lows. Today, I’d like to try to give you further perspective on where we’re at.
On the first chart, I plotted the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) versus the ratio of the Guggenheim S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP) and SPY (blue line).
SPY RSP Chart
Click to Enlarge
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The RSP/SPY ratio has clearly been lagging SPY since early March. This tells us the rally over the past few weeks has been led by a few heavily weighted stocks, which speaks to deteriorating market breadth.
This does not mean the market is going to come crashing down at any moment, but in my 20 years in this business, this type of deteriorating market breadth has rarely — if ever — signaled a good time to chase stocks higher.
On the next chart, I plotted SPY along with Utilities SPDR (ETF) (XLU) in red and the Consumer Staples Select Sect. SPDR (ETF) (XLP) in orange.
SPY XLU XLP Chart
Click to Enlarge
Over the past two trading sessions, XLU and XLP have fallen sharply, catching investors by surprise. These two sectors, which combined make up about 13% of the S&P 500, have helped keep a lid on the market in the past couple of days.
Finally, looking at SPY itself, we see Thursday’s price action resulted in a nice bearish reversal, i.e., selling confirmation after Wednesday’s buying exhaustion.
SPY Chart
Click to Enlarge
While SPY remains above its 8-day (blue) and 21-day (yellow) simple moving averages, this is yet another warning flag for bulls that the getting on the long side isn’t as good as it has been and that a corrective wave may be near.
As of this writing, Serge did not hold a position in any of the aforementioned securities.
Matthew, what are your thoughts if any on Maya Gold and Silver MYA-V, they are in production ( mostly silver)now but the stock is near it’s 52 week low and hasn’t participated in the latest run up. Any input would be welcome, silent or otherwise. Thanks DT.
DT, I’m always suprised by the number of companies that I’ve heard but forgotten about. MYA is one of those. I’ll take a look at it now.
Ok, I took a look at the presentation, the share structure, press releases, and some charts but hardly did an in-depth analysis in 30 minutes. With that said, I think it bottomed in February and probably needs to go sideways from the current level before going higher. The daily and weekly charts look good but not great. Now for the negatives. MYA seems more than a little expensive relative to many of its peers – including superior peers. It also has a relatively poor capital structure for a miner that size:
Common shares outstanding 187.2 M
Options ($0.25 – $0.50) 8.3 M
Warrants ($0.15 – $0.50) 61.5M
For comparison, have a look at IPT’s share structure:
http://www.impactsilver.com/s/Share_Structure.asp
Sticking with IPT for comparison purposes, MYA’s current liabilities exceed its current assets 3 to 1 while IPT’s current assets exceed its current liabilities by 2 to 1.
MYA has $28M in short term and long term debt. IPT has no debt. I like leverage but MYA has given away so much near term upside in the form of debt, options and warrants, that its time to shine might come later when silver is quite a bit higher.
Remember that I might be missing important information. Hopefully others have something to add.
Thanks Matthew, I really appreciate your analysis, and I know you are thorough. DT
Agreed. Thanks Matthew.
I’ve been tracking Maya Gold & Silver for a while, but had forgotten about them the last year or two until CFS reminded me of them again a few months back.
There are bunch of small producers that rarely get discussed much that look very intriguing to me. I’ve posted those small producers lists a few times in the past asking if anyone had any in particular that they liked and Maya Gold & Silver was one of them.
DT – thanks for bringing them back up for a look-see.
BOB HOYE …..Guru Rating…………. 40%……………for all you wishful thinkers… 🙂
Those ratings leave a lot to be desire, Jerry. They’re based on public comments not paid advice.
Remember that predictions don’t have to be dead on in order to make a fortune. You can miss every bottom and every top and still capture the majority of every rally. In addition, buying and selling based on real-time information/signals does not require any predicting at all.
GS…….at 45% ,says…….gold going to chop down till june…..then up…..
Miners still look good according to CASEY……….
As far as I know, Casey generally doesn’t care about the next two weeks, so he could agree with GS and still say that they look good.
You are correct……….he just likes the BIG CYCLE……..
CASEY ,….that is
Mathew absolutely. I love Bob Hoye ls insights and history info.
Not always correct but great ammo.
BILL HOLTER at usawatchdog………..close your eyes and ears…….birdman…….. 🙂
What now? Is the world ending again? I think I will skip it.
WATCH the GLD…..funding , from funny men gold going out the door……..
Checking back with Weldon….BULLISH on PM sector….correction now??!!
AND one word PLATINUM has now lifted off and a large discount to Gold…..
This ain’t normal and wont last…
Mathew got any favs in this sector….I’m going shopping….
In the end ignore the psychobabble about the economy and the taking heads and pay attention to Mr market.
At bottoms everyone finds a 1000 reason why its going down further..
Sorry, I don’t follow the platinum miners.
Billy, for palladium you might want to take a look at SWC.
I’ve had an absolute blast trading Stillwater Mining (SWC) over the last few months, but did the best with Platinum Group Metals (PLG). PLG has about the most exciting development and near-term production story in the PGM space, and they have 2 different world-class deposits being developed simultaneously.
Let’s hope platinum has lifted off………………..
I will get excited when it is 1:1
Might be getting the lift off , because of the SGE…….Chinese like platinum….
I will too OOTB. Everyone loves to discuss the Gold:Silver Ratio, but hardly anyone has been discussing the Platinum:Gold ratio. That’s fine, this Platinum discount to Gold won’t last forever, an in my opinion, this year represents the time to get positioned in a few of the PGM related stocks or ETFs. The full list is below.
Thanks DOC. I did have a look at SWC and a sector leader its had a hell of a move already..Ive got my eye on some smaller ones that charts look good and haven’t launched big time.ie WG..
I love that fact that the big P is a discount to Gold and nobody is talking about it!
Cheers
BEEN TALKING About it for a year……………lol
verify it with EX………..
Verified. OOTB and I have been discussing the discount in Platinum to Gold for over a year, and I think some really amazing opportunities have set up in the PGM miners.
This sector is often only covered in passing with the PMs or it gets lumped in with the Base Metals incorrectly. Really PGMs are hybrid metals with 80% Industrial Metal usage (Auto Catalysts, Dental & Medical tools, Electronics, Jewelry) and about 20% portion allocated to Precious Metals in coinage, bars, bullion, and jewelry.
The PGM Sector(Platinum, Palladium and Rhodium are the 3 biggest metals) is a very misunderstood space and really straddles the Precious Metals and Base Metal sectors. The PGMs are true hybird metals. In fact, Silver is also a hybrid metal, but it is much more of a 60 % Precious / 40% industrial split, so it is correctly filed in with Gold as a precious metal most of the time and has been more common in coinage.
🙂
About what?
If you have been talking about something means shit. If you bought a year ago you screwed up. So whats your point?
Thats for OOTB
The buy point was ONLY a few weeks ago.
If you like wasting time taking about markets going nowhere fast go for it.
I look and Sense a market change and then decide a move.
My day job pays 1/2 mil yr so I don’t have time to sit chit chatting about what may be..
BILLLY BOB CHECK THE NUMBERS…….IT was below 980…….
I see you are still working BFD……….
oops make that $816
Your buying the metal?!
OOps you dont know your #s?
Your a guy that rode the metals down right?
I can guarantee F T that.
My point is WOW.
Metals stocks. $5 5 years ago…. 2 months ago .20c now .40-.60?
I didn’t spend a year talking about it. AND if you think I believe you bought the exact bottom you are so full of shit its not even funny..
I fell off the cabbage truck just daz ago.
No billy bob………..I have phyz…….not the stocks……and I have phyz at a lot lower number. Since, you know nothing about the cycles…….you are like most who depend on someone else to fill you in on when and what to do…….go pull some wire and make you measly wages…….
Garbage in garbage out……….
IF……..I have misread , or misunderstood your comments………sorry for any and all misunderstandings………But, you might clean up your language , for we have a mixed crowd here…………and OWL AND THE GANG like to keep clean ship……… 🙂
Billy the Exterminator – You may want to check out last Friday’s Market Wrap here on KER. We had a good thread on the Platinum & Palladium miners with a few good contributors thoughts.
I’ll repost my PGM watch-list but my favorites are Platinum Group Metals, Stillwater Mining, Wellgreen Platinum, Polymet, Largo Resources and Eastern Platinum.
________________________________________________________________________
On April 23, 2016 at 8:38 am,
Excelsior says:
OK – here is the revised list with everyone’s input:
PGM Stocks – Symbol
ANGLO AMERICAN PLATINUM LTD AGPPY
ANGLO PLATINUM LTD AGPPF
AQUARIUS PLATINUM LTD AQPTY
ATLATSA RES CORP ATLRF
CONDOTO PLATINUM N.L. CPD.AX
EASTERN PLATINUM LTD ELRFF
IMPALA PLATINUM HOLDINGS LTD IMPUY
JUBILEE PLATINUM PLC JUBPF
KENMARE RESOURCES LTD KMRPF
LARGO RESOURCES LTD LGORF
LONMIN PLC LNMIF
MMC NORILSK NICKEL PJSC NILSY
NKWE PLATINUM LTD NKWEF
NORTH AMERN PALLADIUM LTD PALDF
NORTHAM PLATINUM PROPERTY LTD NMPNF
NOVX21 INC PORMF
PANORAMIC RESOURCES PANRF
PLATINA RESOURCES LTD PTNUF
PLATINUM GROUP METALS LIMITED PLG
POLYMET MINING CORPORATION PLM
SIBANYE GOLD LIMITED SBGL
STILLWATER MINING COMPANY SWC
SYLVANIA PLATINUM LTD SLP.L
WELLGREEN PLATINUM LTD WGPLF
WESTERN AREAS NL WNARF
ZKB PALLADIUM CORPORATION ZKBPF
PGM – Funds and ETFs
PHYSICAL PALLADIUM SHARES PALL
IPATH BLMBRG PLATINUM SUBINDEX TR ETN PGM
PHYSICAL PLATINUM SHARES PPLT
E-TRACS UBS LONG PLATINUM PTM
SPROTT PHYSICAL PLATINUM & PALLADIUM TRS SPPP
Also Ivanhoe Mines has a 3 main projects but one is a substantial PGM property. I have Ivanhoe Mines in with my Base Metals stocks, but 1/3 of their assets are PGM related, so I felt it was worth mentioning.
Also Ivanhoe Mines is one of Rick Rule’s long time favorites because of the quality of their assets.
Here’s a quick blurb and a link to their corporate presentation for those not familiar with Ivanhoe Mines:
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd. (Ivanhoe) is a Canada-based mineral exploration and development company, whose principal properties are located in Africa. The Company is engaged in the exploration within the Central African Copperbelt and the Bushveld Complex. The Company’s projects include Kamoa Project, Platreef Project and Kipushi Project. The Company’s Kamoa Project is a copper deposit located in the Central African Copperbelt, in Katanga Province, DRC. The Company’s Platreef Project is a PGE, gold, nickel and copper deposit located on the northern limb of the Bushveld Complex, in South Africa. The Company’s Kipushi Project is underground zinc and copper mine in the Central African Copperbelt, in Katanga Province, DRC. The Company also holds interests in mineral properties in the DRC and Gabon, including a land package of approximately 1,600 square kilometers in the Central African Copperbelt.
________________________________________________________________________
Ivanhoe Mines – Corporate Presentation:
http://www.ivanhoemines.com/assets/docs/ppt/presentation-april-20-2016.pdf
THANKS Excelsior!
Ive got to get back to read you post. On the run…
Be well and yes let me know if any of those companies float your boat. Have a good one!
These are 2 more speculative PGM stocks that I’m looking into:
ATLATSA RES CORP ATLRF
PANORAMIC RESOURCES PANRF
* Also, North American Palladium (PALDF) is one I used to hold, they got in over their heads with debt, made some bad decisions diversifying into Gold in the past and this hurt them a few years back, but now they’ve restructured their balance sheets, have done a reverse split, hit rock bottom, and have started to rebuild. They could become a great turn-around story if the PGM space gets going again. Just some food for thought.
SCOTTRADE closing in Canada………..zerohedge
I intend to aggressively buy speculative junior silver miners this week.
Damn any torpedoes pointed in my direction.
This is a buying opportunity imo, not a time to sell off or wait for a correction just yet.
That time will come….but its not here yet.
Cheers.
Skeeta, this just might be one of those rare times when buying after a big move, not selling, is a contrarian thing to do.
I can’t imagine a more bullish start to a new bull market than this one:
It’s a monthly chart so most won’t be able to see the annotations…
Its a punt I’m taking this week Matthew,
There will no doubt be some on here that think its a stupid move?
But when Silver eventually has a correction I believe it will be from a considerably higher price than where we currently are today. I’m not in the silver has to correct at this price camp.
I think junior speculative silver miner will go nuts in the next leg up.
Anyhoo, its my punt.
Who Dares Wins !
I may join you in adding to positions in a few silver miners that I have trimmed especially if we start the week down. I feel a little under-allocated at the moment.
Well, Skeeta, we already know that you’ve been on the right side of things for months, so your decision to buy some speculative silvers is a lot different than the usual price chaser who has missed everything so far.
I watch the intraday action as it happens and those little suckers are very well bid, I can tell you that.
Check out the weekly ADX for IPT. It is showing far more strength now than at the 2011 top and is on par with the best bull market moves of 2002, 2005, and 2006.
Be prepared to cut across the grain on occasion.
Measure twice…..cut once.
Cheers.
OOTB
OOTB.
I had silver at 6 -8 12 sold at 49. Gold At 310.
So your platinum where?
Yes thise are lower numbers but hadnt bought till recently.
I can imagine your wages the last 5 years.
The best in the business got crushed.
The Titanic correct?
Hello BILLY BOB………I have not been crushed, and I do not work for wages.
They were not the best if they got crushed……..they just thought they knew what they were doing………
OK idiot.
I own a corp and have employess. That’s not a wage…Do you know the diff?
All my fights and everything else( food booze holidays) is a tax deduction. Whats your tax breaks?
Give me names of those who didn’t fall. These a couple
Fuk off with the Billy bob shit. Tou can say it to my face? Ill provide the email. You provide the location. Im good for my word.
Send me your gross. bullmkt1965@yahoo.com
Or shut you pie hole
AS I said BFD………do you think you are the only one that ever had employees…..
I have owned business also…..I know the difference. YOU are the idiot, which needs to learn how to communicate effectively. I am sure your employees know more than you than you know, and are stealing you blind as you dribble your foul mouth. Learn some social skills and you might make a million a year ,in lieu of half an mill…..
As you can see, I type with out spell check and with out proof reading…….we must be related…………… 🙂
Billy bob……….you are to much……..only a moron would send someone their gross.
Why , would I expose any income to a no body…………
If, I were you, I would not be exposing your write off on a public forum.
Great OOTB
I could give a sht on spelling.
But when I have free time in my tub and off a hand set I could give a sht about checking my typing.
Find somthing important too bitch about
Then also I never said i was the only employer??? WTF are smokin man,.
Drop me an email and lets visit.
See the diff is I work hard daily so if you see me and disrespect me Im happy to sit you down.When you in Vancouver??? Come and sas me to my face…I find most most people behind the the PC are really chicken shit when you meet up. So if you cant back it in real life pull your plug
Date time Ill give you an addy.
I would love to visit with you …..I would never disrespect a person who works hard, for I have worked my ass off 30 yrs. ago. Grow up man…you are not the only one who has worked for a living and has had employees. I feel for you that you are currently working your ass off. BEEN THERE DONE THAT. GOT IT……GET in my face , and I will return the favor……..
Go yank two wires and call me in the morning………
That was rude, sorry……….
Great exchange of ideas…………..thanks for the info. and all your contributions and tax tips… I’ll catch you tomorrow…………past midnite here……got to get some beauty rest……..retirement is hell…………..
OOTB
MY WIFE foesnt know what I make. Lol just screwing with.
Cheers
Im still up for a fight!!
Check my spell lol.
Got a new LG v10′ this week. Dumping this ipnone crap.
Two wires…that was funny OOTB. Is AKA Bill another moniker used by BM?
What is wrong with you Andrew? Don’t get me involved in this trash talk!
Respect on that Mathew. Thats what I was thinking….
Sometimes I wish we could turn the clock back to the days when you could here the whirl of the ticker tape. Because of the huge volumes the brokers and the clerks could never keep up with so much trading. Someday we may all wish that was not the past for I truly fear we will all face the day when electronic banking and trading get wiped out by a solar flare or worse an EMP bomb. It won’t be as simple as replacing telegraph stations. Just a thought but you never know, the twilight zone with Rod Serling would have had a field day with our present day technology. DT
AI is taking over our species and nobody cares. Dee, D, Dee D. DT!
Thats one point Rickards makes for phyz gold.
Its not digital.
Rickards thinks there are hackers that could shut down the system.
Rickards has been making bizzar extreme prediction for a decade. Its a no go again.
Just check with Moriarty on his complete shutdown prediction for the last decade +
Not going to well so we will write a book on Knownody know nothing. Or whatever
Rickards has been making bizzar extreme prediction for a decade. Its a no go again.
Just check with Moriarty on his complete shutdown prediction for the last decade +
Not going to well so we will write a book on Knownody know nothing. Or whatever
F the spell sorry
Gold has closed above the bear-to-date 382 Fibonacci fan resistance for 11 weeks in a row.
We are in a bull as far as all I can see…
Not a new bull market Bill but it sure is convincing for a lot of people.
Just some thoughs.
I do not make investment decisions based on what 1 person/analyst/guru/trader/whatever says.
Some people seems to get confused listening to different opinions.
For me personally,the more information i take in,the easier it will be to make a decision.
Edit
Just some thoughts
Congratulations Al. With the help of BM a tally of 400 is about to be breached!
Come in BM!!!
Nothing is more disappointing to the team than when nobody adds commentary to a great show, Andrew. Its the contributions everyone appreciates and that’s why we come here. I pick up great trade ideas every show. Not sure why that is objectionable to you.
But probably you don’t actively trade. Am I correct on that?
400 now passed. Let me help stimulate discussion a bit further, and we could get it to 500. lol.
That guy is the worst doomer. Thankfully he has been wrong the last 7 years. I don’t know how he sleeps. Hows that hemorrhoid you been suffering from?
Agree Egon VG is NOT one of KWN’s ‘legends’ except when it comes to the length of his doom-assessments. Hemorrhoid absolutely fine Bird and yes I do actively trade. Crease your face a bit and we’ll all be absolutely fine.
417 and counting!
I am going to post the next 83 so hold your tongue Reverend!
Can’t wait Mr Listener!
Do not be fooled by the current commodity boom. None of this will be lasting. Even the gold and silver spike since January remains as a mirage as it is no more than a bear market rally. And now it is ending.
Thank G-d for all the bulls though who have powered it up and remain convinced we are on the brink or a massive multi-year bull market. They could not be more wrong of course and I remain convinced that metals will slowly decline for the remainder of the year.
Now Ambrose Evans Pritchard has weighed in with another sobering commentary. The current run up in commodities is a China driven phenomenon but it is already losing traction as the exceptional credit infusion over there is petering out.
His observations come as Morgan Stanley, Nomura, and Societe Generale warn investors that the price bubble in Chinese housing will not last much longer. A few months at the most. After that we will return to the bear market trend that has plagued industrial materials the past few years.
China will see a renewed slowdown and it is approaching fast.
Make no mistake. A housing bust in China translates directly into a commodity bust and that is NOT supportive of the expectations in the precious metals community.
China’s fresh boom nears peak just as amateurs pile in
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/04/24/chinas-fresh-boom-nears-peak-just-as-amateurs-pile-in/
One thing that the pumped-up gold bulls seem to be overlooking is that the Canadian dollar, which has been on fire for months, is in no more than a bear market rally itself.
Look at the monthly chart if you doubt me. And behold the future.
The rise thus far has been spectacular nonetheless but with a resumption downwards we can expect that metals will again lose their luster and oil will continue its fall towards 20 dollars. The correction downwards that strikes gold and oil bulls as improbable is virtually written in stone.
Yet none will hear it.
For those on the fence I would only caution you not to be swept away by the excessive positive talk about the PM sector. It should be played strategically of course and there is indeed money to be made on both sides of the trade.
But to invest heavily into some of the ideas being passed around such as “buy and hold” for the next five years I suggest is foolhardy and that those exhortations be taken with a heaping spoon of salt.
We remain in a period of deflation globally and it will accelerate as the Chinese economy continues to slow. Gold and silver do not perform well in such an environment as a rule (despite all the nonsense written supporting that notion) and so they should be sold.
My viewpoint is obviously contrary to most others here but i offer it anyway as a counterpoint to all the fantasy posts by people who seem unable to read currency charts. My outlook on metals remains bearish.
We have NOT broken out of the bear market. Nor will we this year.
Sorry Doc Postma! Your technicals and mine are at loggerheads.
BIrd, it’s really amusing that I got up this morning early and began to read some of the last comments on KER. See my comments below. I was thinking the same thing that you just posted. I appreciate your comments even though we don’t agree on what the technicals are currently saying. That’s no problem because that’s the way it should be. You could ultimately be correct in your assessment and I always leave the door open that I could be wrong. Technicals that seem so obvious at times along with the markets they represent can swing shut in a moment and make one look like a fool. I stand firm on one thing though and that is the expectation that if we don’t see lower gold prices by the end of the year, the second leg of the bull market is upon us. You are correct in that the bull market in PMs and the stocks have not yet been verified in many ways as you point out. I look at many of the recent moves that have broken precedence we haven’t seen for months to ascertain that the odds of verification is now in front of us. That appears to be the difference in how we look at things. Having said that, your assessment may still prove to be correct—I certainly hold the door open for that possibility.
Kind of funny….I read the comments from the bottom up too. It makes it more interesting that way. For me this is the afternoon. We have just finished lunch and I am watching the mornings action on the computer as the bats the vampires set the tone for the coming day.
You are right about metals having to post a lower low this year to make the case stick that the bear market will continue longer. Personally the odds of that look very good to me but I shall play it by ear as the year progresses one trade at a time.
My one big worry is the YEN/USD and how that chart plays out. It had been looking like it would break out and clearly that would alter my position on metals substantially if it did. For the moment though is is cooperating and we should get a very healthy correction in both silver and gold during the month of May.
All the best to you Doc. And thanks for the kind post.
The Canadian dollar on its monthly chart.
Don’t get too enchanted with that little green blip on the long chart that has coincided with the bull run in metals and a rising trend in crude oil since February. That chart still has plenty of work to do on the downside and there should not be any illusions about how deeply it can fall.
Before buying into the hype about the glory of gold, you had better get to know this chart a lot better first because it tells us the world is still in a deflation and oil has a long way to fall from current levels.
Canadian Dollar Futures on the Monthly Chart — Finviz.com
http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6C&p=m1
I would just like to comment that I’ve enjoyed the comments this weekend. It’s amazing what I personally learn—-the alerts about certain stocks are really helpful by multiple contributors. The original way some posters look at the globe along with the economies is greatly appreciated. Bird, I must commend you for your strong position on that subject. Unlike some, you stretch your neck out there especially when there’s excitement generated on the opposite side. To say the least, the rest of this year will tell us what camp the PMs and stocks will fall into. This will be the year of the dawn or the year of extreme disappointment for them. We’ll know the answer by the end of the year.
Doc! Great to her from you. I was actually trying to get you active on the site today.
I must be a great success since here you are and of course I am a naturally a fan of yours.
You are correct that I hold a strong position in opposition to the gold community. It is one I am very comfortable with and so I am drinking my own Kool-Aid and holding to shorts I expect to be quite profitable.
So now is as good a time as any to reassert that it is my strong belief both precious metals will mean-revert all the gains they saw in early 2016 and mining stock will see a considerable set back before the year is out.
My views are based around currency action and I think they offer us the best insights into what is taking place and what will be coming in the future. Because I feel certain of what I am saying I think its appropriate to caution others to not get too deeply invested at the current peak.
Either that or hedge the trades for the just in case. The gold community at large is primed to make another fatal mistake as I see it and their followers could get hurt badly one more time.
Some of the most outspoken gurus really need to cool it.
By the way, your comments on the CAD chart is right on—the monthly chart scares the heck out of me. When the CAD started its’ initial fall months and years ago, I made the outlandish prediction that we could see a 62 handle on the $CAD—people probably thought I was crazy and we almost got there. The thing you have going strongly for your position is that the possible deflation spiral down is not yet over. If that is the case, we’re still going to be in a world of hurt for the commodities and possibly for the PMs. The fat lady hasn’t yet sung but I strongly will state again that the answer should be provided by the end of the year. The other sword of democles is the commercial position on the COTs. But that’s what makes markets and the fun we have in markets; they never allow you to be become completely comfortable and confident in the positions you take.
Agree Richard, that CAD chart is not positive which is kind of bad for me as my exchange over here has been badly hurt all during the long decline since 2012. I recall that .62 call of yours well and was kind of alarmed when you first made it because after a review I concluded the chart agreed with your assessment.
I have also related recently that it was time to switch from CAD to USD again but I might have been a little early on that call although it won’t make too much of a difference to me overall. Whatever I can do to preserve the cash balance I am going to do though.
Just wish I had taken more evasive action a few years back.
Anyway, my strong view is that precious metals cannot reasonably perform as so many expect should the Loonie decline continue as suggested by the pattern. That is obviously going to be really depressing for the bulls who have once again signed up en-mass for what they believe is going to be the Mother of all gold bull markets.
I am working on some China charts now. The future is not bright sorry to report. My sense is that this year will be the start of a default cycle and crash in the property market and 2017 will be quite a shitty year.
Best to batten down the hatches and preserve whatever gains we have made to date.
Bird+Doc,
thanks for your back and forth here as it is extremely illuminating and sobering.
My question to both of you is: should the CAD crash in concert will oil and commodities; won’t a sub .65 cent Canadian dollar cushion Canadian gold miners a bit even if we get $960 gold???
I have to say that I feel much better about the Loonie’s monthly chart but if it is going to pull back hard, this would be an obvious level for it reverse from.
Monthly:
Bird I enjoy your post must because I fallow Larry Edelson. You sound a lots alike.
It has had a huge move and a correction is likely and oil looks like will also correct now. Berman on bnn has said that oil is not going over 44 and headed to mid 30’s I believe.
We’ll see which of these forks is now in charge. If it’s the blue one, then a correction here will be mild and bullish. If it’s the green one, then the bears have a much better chance at a retest of the low. If we get a correction here at all, I believe it will follow the first scenario.
Thanks Doug. I have not seen anything from Larry in ages. I actually thought he had quit writing articles since they used to appear much more frequently. So what is he saying lately?
We have a good shot at 80+ before there’s a meaningful correction.
Thanks Birdman Larry just put a sale order on fcx and aem for a gain and was stopped out of zel and epd he said miners going down, gold to 1200 or more and the miners could drop 80% of the recent gains. He has a short post on Wiess research on Wed. He will put us back in later. I am not good at posting but maybe this will give you a ideal of what he thinks right now.
I dug around but could not find anything. Larry does not have the profile on Weiss he used to have for some reason which is weird because a lot of his calls were pretty good. Anyway, I agree with that FCX short. Looks great to me. And miners down 80% is highly probable as it would take the HUI right back to major support at 122 and change. I would bank on that happening although it won’t be as quick as some would like because the bugs are going to resist all the way down.
Sorry I was not very clear anyone interested in Larry Edelson work can find him on Money and Markets. I find he misses some short time calls but get the long trends right almost all the time. I am not a paid pusher just like his work.
No problem. I didn’t think you were a paid pusher. I like Larry too and used to follow along with his market calls that were public. Anyway, I found that article you mentioned and it was good reading even if you have heard it before.
The Most-Ruinous Mistakes Investors Make! — Larry Edelson | Wednesday, April 20, 2016
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/ruinous-mistakes-investors-make-2-77473
Are you going to be right about the US Dollar,Bird?
Good morning CFS. I got up this morning and the first thing I look for is the pricing of the PMs before the markets open. And once again the PMs look like they’re going to hold to their trading channel that has been going on for weeks tantalizing us with the question of will we break down massively and affirm Bird’s view or will we break up for a second leg of this potential fledgling bull market. May will be the make or break month.
Agree.
On the plus side for Gold:
Correct on the Yen is the boost for gold.
Silver:gold ratio treand violated first since 2011
Also everyone is bearish at the moment.
Neg rates also are here.
Weldon is pretty confident $1800 this year.
The more miner vs gold chart is brillant and shows a long term breakout.
I drew this chart back in February. As you can tell by my arrows, even I wasn’t quite bullish enough. The HUI is currently at the most bear-friendly resistance line I could draw.
GDX priced in GLD is taking a break:
The fact that there is virtually none in this market OR others that bailed waiting for a correction is telling as hell. I love that…
Man going through the charts….wow…all looks solid as hell.
Broken out against the S&P first in a long time.
Weldon “Its about as bullish looking as you can get on many levels”
looking at all long term carts / ratios /futures ect…..
PS thx for the chart. Mathew
I’m shoveling dirt today OOTB lol
Bill, thanks for sharing that quote from Weldon. I agree with it 100%. This bull market is likely boggle even my mind and I’ve been expecting it for ten years. Those who can’t see it probably have little experience in this sector. This is a true bull; the last one ended in 2006, not 2011.
Grab a free sub for a month and go through the charts. No Credit card needed
Impressive so far.
I think so CFS.
Canadian miner Nevsun Resources Ltd (NSU.TO) said it has agreed to buy Reservoir Minerals Inc (RMC.V) for about $365 million in cash and stock.(Reuters)
Interesting. We just mentioned in reference to John Kaiser’s remarks on Reservoir that is could be a takeout target. Looks like was. Nevsun Resources is a well run company, so I’m sure the deal will be a win-win.
Missed your comment Excelsior,yes i like Nevsun (don´t own it)
Thank you
I see Callinex, CLLXF, CNX.V took off this morning.
NSU was touted by Hard Rock Advisers as having a lot of cash and in the market, but the market does not seem to like the purchase!
Interesting……
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-25/stunning-finding-bank-japan-now-top-10-holder-90-japanese-stocks
As I stated months ago, this will break down when the JCB owns over 30% of the market.
And if you don’t think a similar thing is happening in the US via the Treasury’ s ESF, you are simply uninformed. (It is, as yet, on a much smaller scale.)
PM price suppression to continue through Wednesday….
When the President was in the UK threatening that if they voted for BREXIT the UK would not get a trade deal with the U.S. for many years, he was asked what his best achievement was in the US. To this he replied….a booming economy…
The ignorant …. Obviously has never read either the Constitution or any Federally-generated statistics.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/famee.pdf
Even tough the BLS statistics are screwed to ignore welfare transfers etc., they hardly show a nicely growing economy.
I typed skewed, I swear!
Take a look at the grains today!
Must be those Chinese speculators hard at work. Those guys are going to lose their shirts again.
I wouldn’t be so sure this time.
+1 Lewis
What are you +1ing about? Do you even understand the subject?
Yeah, because they have been successful blowing every other imaginable bubble from real estate to bonds, to stocks to industrial production and Wealth Management products…….that I am sure its going to be different this time!
But careful what you wish for Lewis. If we will get a huge commodity bubble driven by Chinese speculators then that too will undoubtedly end just like all the others. What goes up comes down hard.
Just be prepared to bail out ahead of the crowd or you might be the bag holder.
I am not wishing for anything I am just stating facts and as far as what they are doing it is out of our hands! However as far as commodities goes we have been in a multi year bear market and just because they are showing life does not mean we are entering any sort of a bubble phase.
We might be talking about different things here Lewis. Ordinarily when the Chinese have blown a bubble its direct impact was more or less confined to their own economy.
Many of them have burst or are threatening to burst soon. But if they dabble in the commodity sector though then everyone will feel that across global markets. So my concern is that this is the worst of all scenarios (even if some fools think its a great idea).
We do NOT want a bubble to form in resources as has been done in Chinese domestic real estate. It is far preferable that a price recovery after so many years of a bear market proceeds in a measured and consistent manner.
There is absolutely nothing about bubbles that I like because all of them end badly. And in this case it would imply that resources might not recover for many, many years afterwards.
+1 Lewis
You must be drinking.
Anyway, if you were really so get-out bullish miners as usual you would not have taken profit on most of yours. That’s how I know you harbour doubts as you well should. and why not, if you saw a great run then why risk it until you have the all clear to buy back in again.
You’re tipping your foolish hand again Bird. I still have about two-thirds of the positions that are up 5-6 fold. Most people would have blown out half or more on a double. Furthermore, I reinvested the proceeds in other miners while most people would have opted for cash.
It worked out extraordinarily well and you are an ass for suggesting that I need to be drinking to recognize and agree with good sense.
When you type +1 it does not mean anything at all.
Anyway, what I was referring to was your comment up above where you wrote “I have taken substantial profits”……so in other words you doubt those particular companies will sustain their highs and by default agree that a corrective period has arrived.
Its your words man. Call yourself an ass when you look in the mirror tonight!
If you are seriously THAT clueless, you should never invest at all, Birdy. EVER.
Risk management is even more important when dealing in individual companies instead of sector plays like ETFs. Black swans are always circling the junior miner.
Ask any professional and they will tell you that what I am doing is already very aggressive.
Uuuhm, no. You have also left a comment on Ricks thread where you wrote “Silver held up surprisingly well today but I still think it will get hit tomorrow and/or the next day” among other remarks about gold also going into decline.
So in other words you agree with my view that metals will see a pullback. Come off your horse and all that BS Matthew. Just admit that you sold shares because you doubt that the trend up is ongoing and so you lightened up. Don’t give me all that BS about Black Swans circling Junior Miners and what professionals do with risk management.
You turned bearish!!!!!!
Hahahahahahahahaha!!!!!
🙂
Bird, I already told you that I would never have disagreed with you had you said there would be a short term pullback. But you did not say that. You’ve been extremely bearish and have said that it is “over.”
I am still ALL-IN in the miners and my positions in my big movers are still way too large by nearly anyone’s standards despite my substantial profit-taking.
You’re such a buffoon that I’m starting doubt that you even have a brokerage account.
So, to make this very clear for you, my expectations will have been wrong if we are seeing an intermediate term top. The current action is not surprising in the least.
Remember Birdy, I’ve said to focus on the weekly charts many times. If you understood charts, you’d know that that means daily chart concerns/readings don’t mean much to me right now.
Un-bee-leave-able!!!
You have mental problem bud.
Bird, you really should study before spewing your digital diarrhea all over this site. You’re much more tiresome than any five-year-old.
Have to agree with you about the five year old Matthew. Given time most on this site will see him (or should see him) for who he is.
Andrew, many here have had more than enough time to figure him out but apparently haven’t. Those people are to be taken with a grain of salt for their poor analytical abilities.
Gold is posting an inside reversal today.
Another feather.
Gold= strongest currency in the world…has broken out on many fiats…
Thanks Al and Cory for having insight from Avi on the weekend show