The reality of the economic situation in the US, Europe and China
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- Segment 1-2: Swiss Monetary Expert, Felix Zulauf discusses the reality of the economic situation in the US, Europe and China.
- Segment 3: Chuck Provini, President and CEO of Natcore Technologies, discusses the solar industry and the role that his company is playing in it.
- Segment 4: Market wrap with Chris Temple of The National Investor, Richard Postma, AKA Doc, and Laurent Patrick Gally.
- Segment 5-6: Recently returning from Ecuador, Chris Temple of The National Investor, discusses the state of the mining industry and his observations there.
- Segment 7: Craig Hemke of TF Metals Report discusses the potential longevity of the current gold market.
- Segment 8: Jennifer Sun discusses her book, Two Tales of the Moon. This book describes the complicated relationship between the US and China.
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Good advice yesterday from Doc regarding taking profits and not riding a position down. Too bad he was not here in 2011.
You are certainly correct regarding Doc being here in 2011!
Many thanks to you Skeeta for your support and commentary!
Yeup – another great weekend show.
Big Al – Thanks for having Chris Temple on to discuss the business, political and mining environment down in Ecuador.
I’ve been watching the progress of the Fruta del Norte by the Lundin Group and have high hopes fro Cornerstone, Odin Mining, and SolGold as potential investments.
__________________________________________________________________________
Corporate presentation for Odin Mining.
(I’d be curious to get anybody’s thoughts on this emerging company)
Ditto to that – KER an invaluable resource.
Hi Al,
His name is not Zulouv, but Zulauf, that needs to be corrected on the title of “Segment 1-2” on this page.
Too bad you did not have more time for him. Maybe he did not know that the interviews are quite short and have network cuts? I hope he did know and was not ofended.
It would have been great to hear more from him, in my view on the probability of another QE by the Fed, and his scenario for Gold in the coming 3 years.
Thanks for your great show, thanks to you all. I have been listening for 4 years. This is my first comment.
Regards, Diego.
The incorrect spelling of his name was a big mistake on our part.
As I mentioned in a reply to another comment, Mr Zulauf is suffering from a bad cold and requested that we keep the interview to a bit under twenty minutes which, of course, we honored.
The economy is wide. The markets are narrow. There are many ups and downs. That’s my theory, and I’m sticking to it!
And that happens to be my theory too FranSix
Thanks Big Al and all your contributors. Richard (Doc) your 9 day window ties into some analogs I’ve been looking at; we’ll see…
Unless compelling evidence to the contrary emerges, it appears the primary trends in precious metals and US stocks are in the process of reversing and I’m aligning my investment decisions accordingly.
I have to stick to my thoughts about the future of gold.They are a slight bit different that Doc’s. I am looking for a strong market because, part of the points that Felix brought up in the first couple of segments!
By primary trend I mean the 4 year bear market in the precious metals and the uptrend in the US stock market since the major 2008 – 2009 lows. It looks to me as if both of those are in the process of reversing direction. Richard’s inclination that the current impulsive move as some refer to it has another week or two to go before it takes a breather fits some analogs I’ve looked at. The way I plan to participate is to keep my core position in my preferred pm oriented investments and trade around it some as Matthew posted at 5:44am.
Taking some profits and rebalancing is always prudent but selling everything in this kind of market is foolish in my book. Particularly if we’re talking about the small juniors.
Agree Matthew.
Agreed.
I ain’t selling. Gold’s downside risk is under 200 and it’s upside is thousands.
I agree with you Bonzo.
Thanks Matthew your advice is as indispensable as Doc’s! Best, A
ditto
FFM CCF & Brian,
If you guys have not seen this Weekend special video by Gary Wagner , then you’re gonna love it. $1111 was the only significant congestion zone he noted, and he uses it to chart off of for his Fib retracements, and for his EW analysis.
$1111 – the rim of the Cup & Handle or Saucer where things got saucy……
We were on it here on the KER!! (what it was that we were on I’ll never know)
________________________________________________________________________
Gold Is Tripped Up By Higher Oil and Stronger Equities
February 12, 2016 – 4:49pm – by Gary Wagner
http://thegoldforecast.com/video/gold-tripped-higher-oil-and-stronger-equities
**The Gary Wagner video up above really is worth the watch.
I’ve just finished a second viewing because it is very content and detail heavy. Great charts and very interesting analysis.
Thanks, I always like that type of video where the analyst explains his thinking.
I have a slightly different take on his first chart. After a move goes through a Fibonacci retracement, as gold’s initial move did, I like to start a new set of fib lines (the deeper the preceding retracement, the better this works). So this moves 382 support up to 1190. The 500 day EMA at 1202 should be supportive as well.
On his big-picture gold chart, I disagree with the view that 2011 was a 5. I think it was a 3. I hope EW experts will chime in with their views on this.
Moving on to his last chart, I agree with his positive take on the short term but not his view that this will prove to have been a correction and not a bear market.
The monthly chart is very ugly. No matter which of the redundant momentum/strength indicators we look at, or the price action, there is nothing good about the big picture.
Thank you for pointing this out Excelsior!
Those are good points about which wave we are on in EW analysis. This to me is the subjective nature of Elliot Wave. You can start your wave count from different places, and get totally different outcome. There are specific rules about when waves violate previous peaks or troughs though, where something can’t be a Wave X, etc… I didn’t double check to make sure these principles were in tact on Gary Wagners video, but I’ve been watching him for years, and have learned a lot form him over that time frame.
I guess what I thought was most relevant was that he noted the big wave 3 up in Gold we are in now, expects a pullback wave 4, and then a final wave 5 that may exceed the $1308 Jan 2015 peak. This seems to line up with Gary Savage’s thoughts.
I’m going to call this the Gary Thesis for now since both Gary’s agree. 🙂
Matthew, that is interesting if the big move up in 2011 was a Major wave 3……
I tend to agree with Gary Wagner’s Wave 5 position, but if it was a Wave 3 instead that would, of course, change everything.
If Avi Gilburt, Don Corleone, FranSix, Gabriel, or any other Elliot Waver people have any thoughts on this, please chime in.
I just went back and watched it again, and I think that if the big move up in 2011 was only a Wave 3 then that is much more bullish for Gold because we are not in an A/B/C leg down, but rather completing Wave 4, and would have one big Wav 5 in front of us at present. Interesting……
Also, as for the S&P I hadn’t watched it closely enough, and he only feels this was a correction, that will be followed by another move higher. This seems to match up with Avi & Gary’s point that there still could be a blow off top in the general markets.
I don’t want to rule that out, as I can see their point, but man, it sure seems like the general markets topped the middle of 2015 (internally with advance decline metrics as Rick Ackerman first noted), and that this movement down lately is fulfilling that “Rounded Top” or “Dome top” in the general markets. The only thing keeping from from shorting the snot out of the general markets is what he noted on that video, that the S&P may jump up to 1940. If it does, then I’ll short it with SPXS, and short the Russell 2000 with TZA.
THANKS EX……..FOR THE POST……………..1111 …cup and handle….with a strong move up as we suggested…………. the experts can review our conversation… 🙂
1111 !!!!
😉
Thanks David, Matthew and, of course Reverent. As you are aware, I am in your camp on this one.
WELCOME FELIX Z………….appreciate the input……………..
I hope we’ll hear more from Felix in the future.
ditto…Felix is really versed in what is going on…….
This gentleman should have had another segment of time……jmo.., but thanks for landing him as a guest speaker.
Frank and Bonzo,
Felix was suffering from a bad cold yesterday. And, he was very gracious to take part for two segments. Laura Stein, a close personal friend knows Felix very well and we have to thank her for the introduction.
He was a great guest Big Al. Thanks for continually finding interesting commentators.
Felix is an incredibly valuable guest, Frank
Frank, I am still a bit leery of the Eric King regulars, just been wrong too long.
My opinion, and this is not being disrespectful, is that there is a bit of an agenda there.
Maybe they are just enthusiastic about their thoughts.
The precious metals sector is a very interesting place. Enthusiasm is almost not a strong enough word to use for some of these folks. What is interesting is that at some point in the future some will definitely be correct. But the question, in my mind, is what about between now and then?
I have to stick with my philosophy of being nimble and diversified and well informed.
Hello…..Bobby…..I agree with you on KWN , concerning some of the guest.
The HUI has now closed above the 55 week EMA for two weeks. The last weekly close above that level happened in October, 2012.
Next resistance starts at 188. I’ve included a possible path on the following chart (arrows):
(HUI sized miners are going to do very well but I am much more interested in the juniors.)
Yeup. It looks like big money is moving into the household names and stocks with more liquidity, which is an interesting change in the markets. I agree about the smaller companies for the multiplier factor. Junior size it!
Love the show, but Big Al step back about 4 inches from the mike so we don’t have to listen to your breathing while others speak. 🙂
Great point Mr. Law. Thank you very much. Great to have you with us!
I thought that was Al’s Russian wolfhound panting.
Calliway is the only 14 pound Russian wolfhound in the world!
Hope everyone is having a good WE,
To follow-up on what F. Zulauf touched on, and for those who missed it this week on Zero, below is a reposted link to Kyle Bass/Hayman Capital latest letter to investors, discussing at length the Chinese banking system.
It’s a MUST READ in my book:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-02-12/here-liquidation-just-sent-shockwaves-through-crude-oil-market
GL to all investing/trading.
LPG
always great to have articles like this one to explain what happened…..
A couple thoughts:
The volume on NUGT was highest of the day at the close. Over 650,000 shares in the last ten minutes. This while physical was down $25 from the previous days high.
Three day holiday and many times it is suggested a market is down because folks don’t want to hold for the unknowns that could happen. HUI was very strong on the close. Are all these buyers ‘dumb’ money? I’m beginning to think not.
Some recognition of certain mines that hadn’t really run, saw traders jumping on. CDE and GG are two examples.
Personally, I buy into Gary’s comments days back when he suggested perhaps the character of the market has changed. CDE for example is only back to the middle of it’s trading range from Aug-Dec. Is that really overbought??? I think there’s a possibility stronger hands are doing the buying and not looking for nickels and dimes this time.
It’s going to be interesting to say the least next week.
Very good thoughts Silverdollar. Yes I was in CDE a few times in 2015, and gave up on it because it wasn’t having the leverage to the moves in PMs that other stocks were. Then when this move in metals started in Dec and the miners bottomed in late January, most of the biggest miners got the bid first. CDE absolutely went on a tear.
This is most likely the stronger hands coming in, as you mentioned. That means new money is coming into the mining sector from the larger institutional investors and it is very refreshing. It also means that the Mid-tier and smaller producers will be next to move when the sector attracts more attention. Then the micro-cap Jrs will finally start to move and that is where the biggest gains are made if you pick the right companies.
‘This is purely a trade’
As traders refer to the move in gold prices as parabolic and focus on the daily chart, you can probably draw an analogy with the rally in gold prices from July 2010 to September, 2011
Read the section on ‘forward skew’
Thanks for that post FranSix.
Fwiw to anyone speculating in the nano cap juniors, I want to stress that the charts are secondary to a good “boots on the ground” understanding of each company you own. With their lack of liquidity and analyst coverage, most investors are just guessing about their true potential — and potential risks. And most are doing so based on extrapolating their recent experience with the price action of the shares.
While most investors repeat and live by catchy old sayings like, “never catch a falling knife” or “take the small loss so you don’t take the big one,” the guy who’s done a good job assessing a company’s fundamentals knows whether or not averaging down is a good idea. (With large liquid companies that have plenty of analyst coverage, averaging down is far riskier than with companies that do not yet have earnings or analyst coverage and can be moved sharply by one investor of modest means.)
So when IPT, AXU, USA and others hit shocking new lows more than once last year, I “backed up the truck” because of confidence derived from my fundamental knowledge of each (although I felt my confidence starting to shake with USA — just a little, and not due to the low price).
I’m sure some of you recall that I mentioned it last year when I had doubled, then tripled, then quintupled my IPT position. I put it out there to show that longer term strategies can be (usually are) preferable to stressing about the very short term — and more rewarding. The tiny juniors are not for active trading in size despite the nice volatility. Anyway, before IPT took off, my position had grown to 6.724 times its January 2015 size and the shares now trade at a 52 week high.
My aggressive buying in 2015 was underpinned by primarily by my convictions about my miners but more importantly, by my conviction that the bear cycle was very close to an end.
Wild swings are possible right now but I believe this is just the beginning for IPT and the miners in general.
Matthew – Great thoughts on the micro cap Jrs.
In late 2015 I still was swing-trading positions in the mid-tier producers due to the liquidity and ease of exit, but as we’ve discussed often lately, I’m now really focused on the gems in the smaller Jr producers, development companies, project generators, and explorers. This is where the biggest gains are made when things turn to the upside if there is a sound fundamental picture (financial/balance sheet/share structure, assets (mines, mill, production results, equipment & infrastructure), management, etc…..)
Yes, when I was buying Americas Silver, Silvercorp, and Avino Silver and Gold in Dec and Jan my confidence was starting to shake as well, but I believed in them on a fundamental basis as sound companies. In retrospect, I wish I had bought some Alexco when it took the plunge, and wish I would have bought Impact Silver at that time, but hindsight is always 20/20. I plan on establishing positions in them both though, because I feel that they have plenty of upside left.
Speaking of investing in Micro-cap Mining Jrs…..
On Friday, I nibbled at a first tier position in Nicola Mining (formerly Huldra Silver).
I’d be curious to get anyone’s thoughts on it because they are coming back out to market with a clean slate after their restructuring. I was a previous shareholder of Huldra Silver, and had high hopes for them in 2013 when they got their Mine and Mill up and running. Obviously, I lost on that trade, when low metals prices knocked em’ out.
Here was their prior plan in May of 2013 in a letter to shareholders:
“Produce a minimum of 1.4 million ounces of silver, 5 million pounds of Lead and 4 million pounds of zinc on an annualized basis by July 2013 until a mine expansion is warranted by increased resources”
As we all know, 2013 was an ugly year in PMs, and the bottom dropped out in metals prices for the last few years since then. Huldra went into credit protection for years and have recently resurfaced as Nicola Mining, and they still retain all their previous assets and have restructured their balance sheets. Basically, the carnage is over, and the pearls remain at a far far lower share price.
*To me the differentiation is that, unlike most small Jr explorers, they actually still have the fully permitted Treasure Mountain Mine and fully permitted Merritt Mill for processing on the same site as their Thule Copper property. 2 other big processing sites in their area have had environmental issues and it is likely no new ones will be commissioned or approved any time soon. This gives them a competitive advantage and potential for tolling agreements with other companies.
In a nutshell, Nicola Mining is primarily a cool little optionality play on higher Silver & base metals prices with exploration upside, a mine, a mill, and they’ve had 3 years to work out the kinks.
1) We’ve already discussed that they have a fully permitted Mine and fully permitted Mill, and that they may be the recipients of other tolling agreements or JV projects.
2) They are doing more exploration on their copper Thule Copper project. It is very close to the Highland Valley Copper operation and Craigmont Open Pit. Their Merritt Mill can process Gold, Silver, and Copper.
3) Lastly, they have a Soil Reclamation opportunity that they are pursuing where they can accept and process soil with contaminants and heavy metals for an additional source of revenue.
I believe Nicola Mining is a forgotten about gem of a company, poised perfectly for the rebound in Silver/Gold/Copper. (not investment advice….just my thoughts)
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Nicola Mining:
What do you suppose the potential is for them to return to previous highs? How does one determine the degree of dilution they have undergone in these years? Reading through all their filings in intervening years, or is there an easier way?
Well, it is really a different ball game now, because they changed up all the share structure and debt covenant during the restructuring. They announced in December of 2015 that the newly emerging Nicola Mining (from the ashes of Huldra Silver) had successfully fulfilled its obligations pursuant to the creditor protection proceedings under the Companies’ Creditors Arrangement Act (“CCAA”).
– I don’t believe most investors have given a rip about miners especially the smaller Silver miners. In their case, I don’t even think most people that watch the Silver miners realize they have emerged from the CCAA, as it has been years.
In my mind, the question at this point is, do these share price values really represent a Silver miner that has a fully permitted Mine and fully permitted Mill with proven Silver production and the upside of a copper project and soil reclamation opportunity?
Nicola Mining Inc. (NIM.V) -TSXV
0.06 Down 0.02(20.00%) Feb 12, 3:58PM EST
Nicola Mining Inc. (HUSIF) -Other OTC
0.0490 Down 0.0110(18.33%) Feb 12, 11:26AM EST
NICOLA MINING (HLI.F) -Frankfurt
0.05 Up 0.02(45.95%) Feb 1, 2:59AM EST
If one pulls up a 5 year chart of the just the TSXV listing, and takes into account the 2 reverse splits in 2014 and 2015 (where all the dilution took place) then a stock trading around $.06 used to be a $20 stock.
I doubt it will ever be able to make it back to $20, but you never know. What I feel very confident about is that it could in time turn into a $1-$2 stock. Would a ride from $.06 to $1.20 be worth taking?
Forgot the 5 year chart. I just see the potential for more surprise to the upside or a takeover than surprise to the downside at this point. I feel the same way about Jaguar mining for Gold who has a similar narrative coming out of credit protection but having real assets in place.
5 yr chart for Nicola Mining to show the fall from grace…… May be a great turnaround.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NIM.V&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51684061738
Again this is very speculative, but I feel much better about taking a gamble on a silver company that completed the build out of its infrastructure, went belly up, and is giving it another go in a rebounding metals markets with many years of upside ahead of it. In contrast an explorer that has an 80-90% chance of NEVER getting permits, funding, and the development of a mine or mill is MUCH more risky in my opinion. If I ran a Mid-tier or even a smaller Silver producing company, I’d be inclined to buy out these assets at Nicola for a nice premium. That is my speculative interest in them for right now.
I just thought I’d share the info with the KER family in case others had any interest.
Best of luck to everyone in their investing.
David Morgan Interviews Bayhorse Silver Inc.
Published on Feb 11, 2016
David Morgan of the Morgan Report interviews Graeme O’Neill, president & CEO Bayhorse Silver Inc. at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference in January of 2016
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1qz2OU8PYdM&feature=youtu.be
I’ve been watching Bayhorse Silver for a while, and this is the most helpful overview that I’ve seen. It is going to be an interesting development story for sure.
If anyone else has any micro-cap Silver exploration or development plays they are watching, please post them.
Anyone have any thoughts on Dolly Varden Silver, Bear Creek Mining or Arizona mining being taken out this year?
Anyone feel the Kootenay takeover of Northair Silver is going to be a winning combo?
Minco, Santacruz Silver, Apogee, El Tigre Silver, Levon Resources, Mines Management, Mirasol, Aura Silver, Avrupa, Canarc Resources, Canasil
……anyone….Bueller?
OK – I guess nobody invests in speculative Silver miners. Sorry for bringing it up.
Good luck to all in their investing
Funny of the day or not………….”you can not eat gold, but, when the gold is gone, you can not eat”.
Actually you can eat gold. I used add a special kind of ionized salt with 24-karat gold flakes in it to cleanse my body.
Goldschlager, for example, also has 24-Karat gold flakes in it……although I do not recommend anyone drinking it.
Chris:
Ecuador has been screwed far more than most 3rd world nations by foreign companies (Texaco)in the past 40 years. They even gave up their gold holdings when they converted their currency to the US dollar. Ecuador was one of the prime examples in John Perkins well known book. I only hope they have learned the ability to better themselves and their people in these new deals, as opposed to the ones they made years ago with the same type players. Thanks for your report.
Ecuador has, in the past, also screwed a lot of investors/companies, IMO.
I hope they can develop fairness in laws for all.
Some still have a bad taste in their mouth from the moratorium of several years ago. That’s farther in the rear view mirror, however —
Great current updated on Ecuador Mr. T.
I didn’t see these comments when I posted up above, but wander what everyone thinks about Odin Mining. They’ve been making a stir lately and have some big backers.
Anyone have any thoughts on Odin Mining?
I’ll be looking into Odin Mining, among others, and hope to visit their projects in my nest trip to Ecuador in a few months.
Thanks Chris. It looks like an interesting opportunity in Ecuador.
Good ole’ Ross Beaty owns over 20% of it, so that is what caught my attention. They also have an impressive management team and board.
Chris I liked the points you made about the Water and Infrastructure in Ecuador being much more ideal than in Peru or Chile.
I’m optimistic that they have done just that, Silverdollar, and have struck the right balance between capital and its needs on the one hand, and recognizing the people’s needs/rights on the other.
Great interview on Ecuador Chris.
Some lump Correa with Chavez and Morales. But, if nothing else, he’s far more educated (and in economics at the University of Illinois, no less) and from what you say, it sounds like he ‘gets it’ in a way these other two don’t (or didn’t, in Chavez’s case).
Exactly my view, GH
This is a great interview of Correa by Charlie Rose from almost 2 yrs. ago. He understands what we Catholics call the “Third Way” – neither capitalism nor communism.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9vJuejPvgo4
AXU is at important resistance. A high volume breakout is coming soon.
Matthew
The high volume event you speak of, might be AXU announcing the re-start of their 400 tpd mill (2 million ounces of silver per year). I have stated previously, in this event, AXU share price will double in 3-5 days.
Unfortunately, I think the CEO will just drill more this summer to increase reserves (sigh). AXU found 10 ounces per ton when they were digging post holes (FFS) and they discovered a major reserve DIRECTLY below the existing mill.
He (the CEO) has said that $US 20 silver is a no brainer for the resumption of production
We shall see.
I hope you and EX bought core shares in he $US 0.26-28 range.
Brian
I guess I’m not as bothered by increasing reserves as I believe they will be well accounted for in the share price as silver rises. Assets in the ground don’t seem to matter in a bear market because they’re shrinking in value as the metal goes lower. In a bull market, it’s the opposite. The market prices-in a higher and higher silver price.
It might take some time but drill results will start to matter again, too.
If AXU’s 60M+ ounce deposit is economic at $18 silver, then $19 silver adds $60M of value. The market is already pricing-in a higher silver price. The last time AXU traded at the current 67 cents, silver was over $18 — more than $2 higher than now. It traded around $2/share two years ago when silver was trading between $21 and $22. I expect it to be materially higher than that the next time silver reaches that level.
Please be the first to point it out if I’m wrong, but I think AXU’s leverage will be as good as ever without rushing back into production.
I bought a lot below.30 and intend to hold most of it.
I cannot disagree with any of your comments.
Brian
Great thoughts on Alexco guys. I would only add that on their updates lately they have mentioned they believe their AISC will be in the $14-$15 range when they start up production again, so this could allow them to start mining even at current Silver prices. They may actually move on production sooner than most are expecting.
Thanks, Excelsior. With numbers like that and $12-ish for Americas Silver, we can see why the big gains in the shares make sense and should not be treated as fleeting anomalies to be grabbed hastily. Yes, short term swings will always be there to make shortsighted top-callers feel smart — for a little while but the pressure is now to the upside.
I would still prefer that AXU put off production for awhile.
Yes, there is true value built up in some of these smaller Silver producers that were waaayyyy oversold…… like Alexco, Americas Silver, Impact Silver, Silvercorp, Avino Silver and Gold, and Aurcana.
It would be fine with me if Alexco put off production, because I haven’t started to build a current position in it for 2016 yet 🙂
If they have really reworked their plan with much lower AISC then they “Could” potentially go back into production before Silver got up to $18-$19, like they were planning previously. These little producers have been forced to immediately get their costs down and that is why I love them as potential out-performers compared to the larger companies like Tahoe, Fresnillo, Pan American, and Silver Standard Res.
Look at it this way: If you’re bullish the metal, why spend a lot of money and take a lot of risks to mine it just so you can trade it for bad government paper? It seems like a better move to leave it in the cheapest and most secure vault there is — the earth.
With a good economic feasibility study done, a deposit’s value is likely to grow in lockstep with the bullion price. Successful drilling will add to the contents of that “vault” while providing the news flow that causes excitement in a bull market.
Then, as the bull market matures, with metals prices beginning to plateau, the deposit can be mined or sold.
Ounces in the ground……a fantastic vault.
It will be great and certainly interesting when drill results do start to matter again!
+1
I have listened carefully to all the presidential debates and am totally, utterly disgusted with both the current administration and ALL future candidates.
I believe NONE of them have a clue about economics,
The current administration has throttled the growth of the US economy by taxation and over-regulation; this coming after years of out-sourcing (and giving away of technologies) of much of the US economy.
Despite the incredible inventiveness and drive by American individuals, now remaining in a few pockets (e.g. Silicon Valley), this does not bode well for the country. Combine this with the utter stupidity of coming negative interest rates, which WILL COLLAPSE the banking industry, one can only conclude that long term the US economy and hence the stock market must suffer.
People like Felix Zulauf, based outside the country, are more able to see the big picture, and I commend his introduction to this forum He, like Marc Faber, Jim Rogers and the like, are all people from whom one can sense the true future.
It does not look good, as without considerable luck,a worldwide general recession appears probable.
There is about $1 trillion in Federal Reserve notes printed.
There are about $2 trillion dollars in money market funds in the US.
What do you think will happen if money market interest rates go negative?
Clearly some money will be pulled out.
Some will be transferred into Government paper, but also some will be transferred into precious metals.
Clearly, precious metals will go up in price……it is inevitable.!
The question to ponder and worry about, however, is will the long term result of an increase in the price of precious metals produce any change in their purchasing power? Alas, I suspect, not as much as investors might hope.
That is my take on the big picture.
In case you missed this:
Europe’s financial market turmoil could delay a rise in inflation even further and banks will need to be fixed with forceful action over time, European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told a German newspaper on Saturday.
The euro area inflation outlook is already weighed down by sharply lower oil prices and slowing global growth, and the market volatility is compounding the problem, Coeure told Rheinische Post.
“If that (volatility) continues for too long, it can also increase the risk of a rise in inflation being delayed,” Coeure said.
Euro zone bank shares .SX7E. are down nearly 30 percent since the start of the year on concerns about profitability, potentially increasing the cost of capital for banks and holding back lending. That could reduce the effectiveness of the ECB’s 1.5 trillion asset buying program, its key monetary policy tool.
The ECB is buying assets, mostly government bonds, to boost lending and raise inflation back to its target of nearly 2 percent from around zero after three straight years of misses.
Reinische Post source translation.
My comment about the ECB comment:
It amazes me that the ECB (and the Fed) governors think that lowering interest rates will allow companies to borrow money more easily and thereby boost economic production.
That is a rather facile first order assumption, in my opinion, which fails to fully consider what happens to bank deposits.
Would you save more or less money, as interest rates decrease?
Indeed, if interest rates went negative, would you bother to hold ANY money in bank deposits ( and pay for that privilege) at all?
Clearly, looking at actual numbers, with a delay in reporting, and allowing for lethargy in the general public; bank deposits are decreasing……the banks don’t have much more money to lend. In the meantime, cheap money is blowing asset bubbles. Cheaper lending rates are driving up house prices; more speculation in the stock market is occurring on margin. It is slowly getting to the point where central banks cannot raise rates because that would burst the bubbles. They can’t hold rates steady, because they will be criticized for doing nothing. So they lower rates, hoping that this time it will be different and stimulate the economy; and, of course, it won’t be any different.
Did you realize that between 30% and 40% of the US national debt has now been monetized?
It has not shown up in currency effects yet because most countries are doing the same thing.
Do it too much or for too long, however, and you get Zimbabwe or Wiemar Republic like currencies.
Are you aware CFS that Mr. Trump’s original stake was from his father and that if he had put that capital into the SandP his current value would be the same. Please verify that for me if you would. It was brought up in our discussion group yesterday by a member who is an avid conservative.
Yes. I wrote in this forum a few days ago about his business skills.
He has declared bankruptcy many times and (pardon my language) screwed the general public out over $4 billion. People who invested in his bonds which went to zero, when his company went belly up.
Worse than that, he is dishonest.
He has made statements to banks which were false. He has made promises to banks, that he ignored within just days.
This is not an honorable man.
Does certainly not look good, Professor.
CFS, this comment pertains both to your comment about the candidates and also to you comment about the banks.
I forget the exact number, but probably most people don’t realize, literally thousands of banks went out of business in the first Great Depression. In fact, over half of all banks went bankrupt. The number was in 4 figures, i.e. thousands.
Thank you for the comments about Trump, CFS. If they are verifiable, I will certailnly post them on this site in a very obvious manner.
Please help us out on this project. Best to you.
I’m no Trumpian, but I can’t resist.
If terrible business and financial skills, lack of honor, dishonesty and screwing the public are disqualifiers, I think we’d better start over 🙂
JayT – LOL — yup, a whole new slate of candidates!
Couldn’t agree more, CFS…here’s who I like for POTUS:
The experts can keep saying oil is going down further but at some point it will stop. No one knows the bottom and it could well be $26. Waiting to buy the stocks when you have a clear signal like a move above major resistance at$38 will result in missing the 1st 25% to 30% rally. Look at gold. Most people have missed the huge rally waiting for $800 to $1000 gold which is very unlikely now. You have to play the rallies hoping that you might have caught the final bottom and selling out quickly if the rally fails. If you are in etf’s or major oil stocks you can get out in seconds.
Great points Paul L. I wondered when Oil hit $26.07 on Thursday if that was it, but regardless, I think more pain will be hitting the Oil patch as the balance sheets and debt burdens start crushing some of the over-leveraged companies that need the $40s and $50s to break even. When we start seeing some of that news roll in, I’m going to be actively acquiring Oil stocks. If things do stay here in the $20’s for a while, then I’ll likely just go with XLE and XOP to get some exposure broadly, and then go for individual companies after the bloodbath.
There is digital gold in the vaults and they can pay out in cash if they run short of physical. You don’t see people lining up at banks to withdraw large sums of money which also only exists in digital form. There are not enough bank notes to cover all deposits and there will never be enough physical gold to cover the paper contracts.
Gold should correct to the 1170 to 1180 area and then take off again unless the stock market starts to rally hard toward 2000 and that can only happen if oil has bottomed.
THIS MAY CHANGE EVERYTHING
Huge risk of escalating war….may throw some of the developments this week out the window.
Not trying to be dramatic, but if this continues, it’s huge….direct conflict of a NATO country with Russia.
Saudi Arabia is to deploy military jets and personnel to Turkey’s Incirlik Air Base in the south of the country, Ankara said. The base is already used by the US Air Force for their sorties in Syria.
The deployment is part of a possible US-led effort to defeat the Islamic State terrorist group.
There is a security conference in Munich, Germany, where the Syrian crisis was one of the top issues on the agenda.
Earlier, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the UAE voiced their readiness to contribute troops for a ground operation in Syria on the condition that the US would lead the intervention. Damascus and its key regional ally, Iran, warned that such a foreign force would face strong resistance.
The US, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have shared goals in Syria, as all three want the government of Syrian President Bashar Assad to be toppled by rebel forces. On other issues they differ. For example, the US supports Kurdish forces in Syria who scored significant military victories against IS, but Turkey considers them terrorists and is targeting them with airstrikes.
Russia, which supports the government of Bashar Assad, seeing it as the only regional force capable of defeating IS on the ground, has warned against a ground intervention, which, Moscow believes, would only serve to prolong the war in Syria
From Reuters.
However, Russia CONTROLS the airspace over Syria, and the US cannot take that control away, in my opinion.
cfs..What do you reckon $200 + oil !!!!!!!
Any intervention by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, UAE, Turkey, US is unwanted by Syria’s elected gov’t and illegal as well, is it not?
Does anyone believe any of these actors actually want ISIS defeated??
I certainly agree with you Paul L. That is why I am not ashamed of my call at $1175 to perhaps start accumulating!
I heard from a person who I consider to be a valuable source that Mr. Asaad will be gone within a very short period of time. Perhaps as short as two weeks.
We shall see.
Hmm…what do I know, but I’d be surprised. They’ve been trying for years now. And Syria has all but won against ISIS at this point, with Russia’s backing. I’m curious what could lead to his rapid ouster at this point.
Turkey & SA. Are starting to get desperate ahead of the ceasefire pencilled in for next week. They know they are on the verge of losing out on the prize called SYRIA. Because of what Russia, Iran, the very weak Syrian army, & the Kurds have done in Aleppo. It means the UAE wont get their pipeline, Turkey wont get any more stolen oil (on the cheap ) & they wont be able to supply any more weapons to the terrorists Supplied by the real terrorists behind the scenes ( you all know who I am referring to ) Putin has done everything by the book, he has been baited, but refuses to swallow. All we can hope for is if Turkey does do something stupid that NATO has the good sense to tell them that they are on their own otherwise millions will die….& for what an oil pipe & another bankers central bank………..
SCREW THE BANKERS.
Very well said, Irish
Thanks Jay – we can almost grow blasé with so much bad news becoming like a norm we learn to live with.
Good thing we have such wise leadership in this country. Need lots of prayer (not kidding on the prayer part)
Just saw Scalia died. God help us.
Unfortunately Reverend,that is very true!
Scalia an honourable man even if Obama says so himself!
JayT…People need to pay close attention to this, it could snap quicker than a rat trap…This could effect everyone on the planet.
JayT
It is in your best interest to ignore ZeroHedge, in my opinion.
Brian
They link to other sources, so ignoring ZH would mostly be ignoring news I can find on other known sites, instead of saving time through their aggregation of them.
The story about Turkey shelling Syria, for example, is from Agence France Presse in France….not exactly a fringe news agency 🙂
You may not like their opinion pieces, but they are the best source of reliable, aggregated news I’ve found, bar none.
Some people can’t separate their opinion pieces (which often are actually prescient and insightful) from their aggregation and summarization of so called “hard news” sources, but that’s not been a problem for me.
We’re too US paper/ channel/ site/ news agency focused in the US and I often learn much more of what’s really going on from European sources that aren’t embedded with the US system and pols.
Same from following other papers and news agencies on Twitter.
It’s amazing what gets screened OUT of reporting by even more agenda-driven US news sources.
That’s a good point about the difference between their editorial pieces versus their aggregation of other news sources. ZH does expose readers to news they may not otherwise see, but they tend to source the most dramatic or sensational stories.
Maybe a lot of the news IS dramatic or sensational Hair on fire! Hair on fire! stuff 🙂
Gotta laugh at some of it, I admit…but have you seen the MAINstream media lately? 🙂
Agreed. That news has got to sizzle to sell…… If it bleeds it leads……. The media…. Ha!
Good observation, Jay — don’t forget that if it’s been set up for a GOP candidate to win in 2016, it is quite likely it will be on the back of bigger drum beats for war. Listen to every one of those cretins last night (except for Trump, which is why he won’t be nominated in the end) war-mongering over Russia; pretty much the only unashamed CHRISTIAN nation left on the planet. Gives you a good idea of who runs things here…
Definitely Chris.
I have concerns about Trump, mainly that I’m not sure if we would govern conservatively in the right places, but I can’t find much to disagree with on his immigration stuff…we need a breather and a reality check IMO (and I support manageable legal immigration). Also, it’s clear that “free trade” isn’t working out so well for our manufacturing base (although robotics may help reverse that?)
I’m reading the book “The Cross in the Shadow of the Crescent” and people need to wake up about Islam. It is an entire system, bent on, without exception, total domination of every country and aspect of our lives. This is not about religion, it is about a world view that will destroy us if we allow it (and I don’t hate Muslims or any of the other blah, blah that people throw out on this).
I like that Trump challenged R orthodoxy wrt GWB. With the (spotty) exception of the Supreme Court his presidency was an enormous missed opportunity (remember how he folded on privatizing just 2%! of Social Security contributions, bailouts, TARP, etc.) and mostly a disaster IMO.
Putin’s no angel, but when candidates start talking about challenging Russia’s “no fly” zone, etc. so glibly it’s amazing. It’s foolish talk. The time to preempt these things has passed and going to war to “fix” them is foolish beyond belief.
Assad, Ghaddafi (sp?), etc. are/ were animals, but better to have animals we know and can influence or nominally control, than to overthrow them and open the floodgates to rabid animals IMO.
JayT…I believe one of the predictions by Nostradamus was…………..
The third world war will be fought in the name Islam, or it could be Allah.
Chris, please the comments about Mr. Trump from CFS above.
Come on, any differences are an illusion. Clinton didn’t stop the bombing and sanctions in Iraq in the ’90s and Obama changed nothing that Bush started but did eliminate a LOT more people using drones. The big difference lies only in the way the media covers the side that you are supposed to like more.
And let’s not forget that it was a Demonrat (thanks Ebolan) that nuked a lot of innocent people.
The U.S. is using F-16 fighting Falcons and B-1 bombers in theater, based in Italy, normally.
(I seem to recall the US moving 8 F-22s to a Mediterranean based carrier, but think they then moved the carrier out of theater.)
As far as I know, Russian electronic jamming capability makes the U.S. incapable of effective fighting, if the Russians don’t want it.
And the US military capability has been heavily damaged by Obama policy.)
yes, it is also my understanding that the U.S. military has been damaged.
I just listened to Bob Hoye and he talked about adding to the gold stocks and said we’re in for exciting times in the miners. That’s coming from a guy who’s prone to understating things. He thinks this is the start of a cyclical bull market (big surprise).
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2016/02/european-banks-and-stocks-take-a-pounding/
Thanks for the post……….
I can’t wait for negative interest rates to become a reality. With the right terms, I should be able to pay off the principle with the interest I earn. Point: the banksters (as they have done in the past albeit differently) and giving back some of the money they have stolen to placate the people and avoid being hung.
and = are
Wayne, how is stealing from savers “giving back?”
What’s currently the interest rate for housing loans in the US ?
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage fell this week from 3.72% to 3.65%, its lowest point in 10 months, according to mortgage buyer Freddie Mac.
I’m paying 5.15% over here on investment property mortgages.
No 30 year fixed rates available either (that would be a dream come true)
My rate was recently increased .25% as its an investment, not an owner/occupier mortgage (this was their call to try & cool down the property market).
It is absolutely ridiculous, my own home (owned outright) is currently valued at over $675K.
I purchased it 16 years ago for $109K.
God help those who are buying now if the property bubble bursts?
It will be complete carnage for many of them if it pops.
Wow… time for a HELOC to buy a pile of gold and silver — in another country. 😉
I have a fixed 30 year for 4.0% when I refinanced and paid no closing costs. They told me if I wanted to pay a few thousand that we’d be able to get it down to 3.75% I wasn’t sure how long I’d be in the home at that time, so I declined, as we plan on moving in the next year or so.
I believe that a 30 year fixed is 4.2 and an arm with the first seven years guaranteed is about 6 3.%
Sorry big mistake in my comment. The arm is about 3.6% and guaranteed for seven years.
Loans under $250K are running about 3%. It varies slightly around the country.
Tim Wood says his statistics show that gold has one more low…
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2016/02/while-gold-moving-up-still-not-real-charge/
What do you think, concerning his 9 yr. cycle.? Have you followed him lately, and if so, have you found him to be accurate. I use to listen to him several years ago. thanks.
I think he mentioned , he does not follow other commodities, which makes me wonder if he has a total picture of the gold market.
I’m one of the minority who agree with him,
But overall in the big scheme of things in won’t matter much,
Buy now or lower…..you’ll still walk away with a smile when tge bull is in full flight.
Even if gold makes a new low, I doubt that the miners will even come close to doing so. If CRJ can rise 530% while gold dropped $200, the whole sector can at least hold up while gold makes a marginal new low. The cat’s outta the bag now and there will be a lot of bids waiting.
Thanks for the comment…..Skeeta……………I am long……..and have been for years, since the 70’s, or I should say… in, out, in, in again
Agreed Matthew,
That is quite possible for selected miners.
Not for the garbage though.
Good post of interview from Tim Wood. His point is that this still may be a strong counter-trend rally that sets up the final low is EXACTLY what I’m concerned about.
This is why I’m not all in at this time.
I agree that even if the metals head to new lows that this doesn’t mean that the miners will make new lows, but that is a sweeping statement as not all miners are going to perform the same. If metals hit new lows, and sentiment gets really bad, then many miners will hit new lows or at least new recent lows. I do agree that some of the top of class in miners may avoid this bottoming though.
Interesting point about gold vs miners.
Gold so far hasn’t so far clearly broken the pattern of the past few years:
(a modified version of a chart Matthew posted a while back)
While GDX has made a much more extreme move than before:
Look at last week’s volume for GDX. It’s almost exactly the same as the volume spike during the plunge in July. That’s a good sign.
My opinion of Tim’s work is good but that’s based on his free material over the years. I have never been a subscriber. He has won awards for his market timing and I know his work is based on statistics, so I would like to know what this rally in gold would have to accomplish for him to say that the stats are not likely to show us the way this time.
If the dollar is about to have an episode even remotely like the Russian ruble did in the 1990s, I suppose that would do it.
http://www.paulvaneeden.com/Sites/paulvaneedencom/Root/Web/Images/page_5/r1998_make_sense4.jpg
Matthew………..thanks for the reply…..appreciate ……………j..
Meanwhile there’s rioting at the eastern end of Europe!
Alexis Tsipras and the government made a proposal to triple the social security burden and double income taxes in an effort to appease the powers that be in Brussels who claim Greece has not made enough progress towards fiscal consolidation since the country’s third bailout was agreed last August.
The Greek people are not happy, and decided to increase their ultimate taxation by burning police cars in Athens.
What a brilliant way to increase tourism, as the season is just starting…..not.
cfs…Tsipras is bought & paid for they are burning the wrong item.
New events about to take place Supreme Court Judge Scilia dead at 79…..
Scalia ……
Thanks Frank, I did not hear that today.
So Obammie’s gonna get to appoint another scotus (in)justice. What a disaster. Prepare to be Sotomayored!
Antonin Scalia was a great defender of the Constitution.
America can now kiss the Constitution Goodbye as Obama will stack the court with a permanent leftist Judge and the Republicans are too stupid to block his nomination.
With 5 leftist judges it is all over, short of a convention of the states.
I was thinking in the same line of though as I read the news………
More likely, the seat will not be filled until after the elections. Obama couldn’t get a nominee past the Senate! JMO
But could he pull a recess appointment? Hasn’t this been done before with judges?
Anything thing is possible………maybe he will wait till Thanksgiving recess…..and give them the bird…
got me stuttering ………….
I think you are entirely right. By then the election will be over so he couldn’t hurt the Demonrat candidate. And what’s he care about the reaction? He’s a lame duck so he will give you the bird twice!
Off topic but if anyone still has any doubt of the evil of the gummit they outta view some of these documentaries on OKC.
Ebolan……….interesting on McVeigh……….does not surprise me.
Yes – but the Senate will change its plans and make sure the body is not officially in recess now.
Hopefully as from what I understand it is a possibility and it has been done before with scotus nominees. However, the Imperial Senate still has to approve is my understanding. The Republocons have a majority in the Imperial Senate now but who knows after the next election. I think they still will, most likely.
But in the end does it even matter when RepublowCons gave us (in)justices like Roberts who made sure we are now stuck with Obammiecare?
DemoNRats or Republoeclowns they always make sure those in the black robes are thugs who will do the state’s bidding.
I do agree with that Silverdollar.
He and Clarence Thomas, though not always perfect, were the last two that had any regard for the Constitution as written. All the rest — including the bitter disappointment Roberts, are all statists of one kind or another that use their job and legal rulings to rationalize the social/economic change the Establishment wants.
Amen.
I agree with the comment on ROBERTS……DISAPPOINTMENT as far as I am concerned.
A recent book about Scalia; discussed
I think this time the Republicans will not roll over for Obama. Too much is at stake, including the 2nd amendment(and all the others). If Mitch does cave in then Cruz and others will have to filibuster.
This is similar to 2000: stocks peaked before miners bottomed…
It does look similar to late 2000 / 2001. History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme……
History rhymes very closely, Excelsior.
HUI weekly:
DIA has already plunged 26.5% vs GLD:
From March to August, last year, GDXJ outperformed GDX by as much as 36%. Since then, it has been correcting and has dropped as much as 24%. What I find interesting and unexpected is the oversold RSI reading very recently. Both ETFs have done very well in dollars yet GDXJ still became extremely oversold versus GDX. The timing of this and the fact that GDXJ now looks ready to outperform GDX, is bullish in my opinion.
If the reverse were true and GDX was oversold vs GDXJ, it would bearish and expected at a time when the sector is rallying (the riskier juniors typically outperform the seniors when the sector rallies). The fact that the seniors are outperforming to such a degree this time is indicative of a major low since the seniors, in general, represent the baby that has been thrown out with the bathwater.
It looks like GDXJ:GDX is putting in a massive double bottom on the weekly chart.
I’m seeing an inverse correlation between this ratio and the dollar price of these ETFs…so with GDXJ:GDX possibly starting a short-term rise, it looks like it’s signalling a correction in the gold miners…am I missing something?
That’s what’s unusual. If a correction appears to be likely on the standard $ charts, then GDXJ should provide leverage to the downside. To see it become so oversold vs GDX after both have had a great run tells me that the juniors should hold up extremely well if both do correct in dollar terms. I’m seeing the same bullish setup in the silver:gold chart (if both correct in dollars, silver seems unlikely to provide its usual downside leverage).
When the juniors outperform the seniors and silver outperforms gold, it’s a sign of underlying strength in the sector -and now (after a huge run) would be an odd but great time to see such strength.
http://palisaderadio.com/ just posted gold discussion.
Thanks. Florian thinks we are at the end of the Gold bear market. Most of the votes coming in are that Gold is starting the baby bull.
I’m moving forward with caution at these levels until I see a close above $1308. Like I said, I have a partial position in place in miners in case we are still surging, but I have not committed 100% because I worry that this could be the mother of all bull-traps, where it could still set up the final leg down.
In the back of my mind I wonder what the Sentiment would be like if everyone jumps aboard the train to ride the bull back up, and Gold turned over and headed down dragging Silver with it to a new low and catching everyone on the wrong side of the trade?
If all the pundits are correct, I’ll play ball with this baby bull and watch it grow up into an adult raging bull. However, if this was a big bull-trap, and there is one final leg down into the Spring, then I’ll back up the truck at that point excited for the opportunity for one last fire-sale.
Here is an article that they reference at the end of the interview with Florian:
Florian reviews 5 companies including one of my favorite holdings – Torex Gold. He also reviews the St Andrew Goldfields acquisition by Kirkland Lake Gold
__________________________________________________________________________
Five Companies Swiss Asset Manager Florian Siegfried Is Watching
https://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/five-companies-swiss-asset-manager-florian-siegfried-is-watching
From the article above…..
Florian Siegried – “Torex Gold Resources Inc. (TXG:TSX) had some good news at the end of December when it was celebrating the first gold pour at El Limon. Recall El Limon is really a world-class asset with more than 5.5 million ounces (5.5 Moz) and a relatively high-grade resource. I think it’s significant because the company spent $800 million ($800M) on the project in a downmarket, and achieved production on time and on budget, which underlines the quality of the management when it comes to execution. Let’s see how the ramp-up goes. Usually, nothing goes straight in mining, but the rerating potential here is very interesting for investors because Torex was trading sideways all over the last few years. It has become a show-me story. If the company can deliver economic commercial production, Torex is a name you want to own because it has more than 2.5 grams per ton (2.5 g/t) in its resource category, which is very rare these days.”
Woops – I forgot part of that……
Here is the rest on Torex Gold from the article posted above from Florian Siegfried:
“…….The other thing to keep in mind with Torex is the second deposit, Media Luna, is even bigger. It’s 7.4 Moz gold equivalent (Au eq). It has only a preliminary economic assessment (PEA) at this stage, but expect all-in costs of $636/oz Au eq. The catalyst could be moving this PEA into some sort of feasibility study and connecting the Media Luna deposit with the mill through some sort of a conveyor belt, which is the strategy of President and CEO Fred Stanford.”
Did you notice that they covered Perseus Mining on this editorial?
It still sounds promising to me (and now I’m a shareholder, so I took the plunge).
Perseus Mining Limited Earns A$12.0 Million Profit for Half Year to December 31, 2015
PERTH, WESTERN AUSTRALIA–(Marketwired – Feb. 12, 2016)
They also covered the turnaround in Timmins Gold. It has really surprised people with their rebound in share price (me included).
Florian had some interesting points on how a rising metal price, can suddenly change all the economics on a project when underwater mines start making money to pay for Feasibility Studies, no longer needing to raise money. It really can cause a sudden re-rating in a stock by the market, or a change in project plans, reserve estimates, etc…
Even Ross Clark called for gold to correct too soon —$60 too soon like almost everyone else.
How I see the election going: Republicans will consolidate with Jeb and trump. Jeb gets 60% of votes. of course Hillary with tromp Sanders and then Jeb in the finals. These are predictions only not necessarily my personal views.
Bobby,
I don’t think that Bush will be there. Regarding Hillary, is still think that the jury is out on that one.
Let’s hope it gets to a jury 🙂
Al, most think Bush is toast, so why is he still around? Someone has plans for him.
Bobby..I see it a little different..Trump has served his purpose and got the people revved up but the more you see of him the less Presidential he appears to be..and he is offering no particulars..only rhetoric..I see Cruz and Rubio fighting it out..Jeb was a great Fl. governor but doesn’t appear to be comfortable on the national stage..Jeb got Florida through 3 hurricanes in 4 weeks..he was on TV every 4 hours advising residents where the aid was and what was going on..anyone living in Florida at that time woould have seen the same thing…
Interesting perspective Gator. This will be a very interesting election and one which will tell me if in fact it is rigged and the powers to be are really in charge. Time will tell. I am personally still uncommitted an as usual will probably vote for the losing party.
Very highly recommend a listen to this episode of the John Batchelor show on China.
We’re dealing with a totalitarian, murderous government.
They haven’t changed. They haven’t “moderated”.
Oh, and they’re kidnapping offshore Chinese from places like, say AMERICA, to take them back to China for God knows what.
They are today’s Evil Empire and IMO we need to do all we can to weaken them (not talking about war….be we should be so strong they dare not challenge us….hmmm, seems a guy named Ron used to believe that and was laughed at).
It makes me sick that American companies are such sycophants to these creeps (and we’ve borrowed so much dough from them)
We need video reports such as this to remind us never to see China through starry eyed specs. Harrowing.
I thought that Felix’s comments about China were great, Reverend!
TRX – An Update On Force Majeure Declared Last Week
Tanzanian Royalty Exploration
Dear Friends,
With the arrival of Tanzania’s new administration, the ministerial staff were sent to mining companies, especially those owned by non-Tanzanian companies. They made demands that were not bound by law or contract, threatening us all. The Deputy Minister of Mining gave a speech to the local village and illegal miners saying that he had given us 14 days to hand over land to them to be mined, which we had already done when we offered them their choice of 3 parcels, one of which they were already on. On the 15th day, two hundred people came over the fence demanding more property. If we took no action and let 200 remain, there would be, as happened at Bulyanhulu, 20,000 more coming.
With the new government treating us all rudely via the Deputy Minister inciting riots by his pubic pronouncement, I had no viable option but to instantly declare Force Majeure against the government. In Sub Sahara Africa if you are hit you have no choice but to get up and hit back. If you don’t you are finished. You must fight instantly or you will be picked on until you give up whatever you have. I am not sure it is too different here, just more refined.
The rule in Africa is you have to put the illegal miners off your property the first day they arrive. If you don’t, 1 turns into 5, 5 turns into 20, and then that 20 becomes 20,000 and you are cooked. When the invasion grew to 200, I had to take an instant, loud, public and serious action. The interlopers were escorted out.
We do not owe Stamico one cent as that was triggered by actions on their government’s part that can only be understood in terms of the movie “Lord of the Flies.”
We are still not able to exercise our full mining license on the Kigosi property due to the whim of a single Minister. We had refused to pay cash to his representative late in the last administration in order to get access.
To add to this, a Chinese national mining company lusts for Buckreef. They are a modern form of the historical claim jumper willing to pay anyone corrupt inside or outside of the company if it helps them get what they want. We believe Buckreef represents billions, even at today’s prices.
People seem to think incorrectly that Force Majeure is something the government did to us, but it is something we declared against the government of Tanzania which we will arbitrate in London as per our contract provisions. Force Majeure gets a government’s attention as it hits directly into the claim of welcome to investors and offers protection to non-Tanzanians conducting business in the country. Force Majeure freezes all company obligations payable until the issues are resolved and protects all licenses and permits as property in this case of TRX, the parent. I had absolutely no other option but to use the most powerful defense weapon in international mining as a tool provided in our contract. The alternative would have been to simply surrender, which would be the beginning of a very quick end. I had to go nuclear in the mining industry terms instantaneously.
London arbitration is fair and our claims of no funds due to Stamico are solid. Stamico stands for the State Mining Company run by the Tanzanian government. These proceedings are governed by international law, not local law.
We issued a detailed release on this subject and two additional items earlier this week.
Stockholders looking at the market ran to the internet chat sites where information is always somewhat dicey and position profit motivated.
In the best interest of protecting the company assets, a week ago I pushed the “Force Majeure pause button” protected by contract based on international, not Tanzanian, law and opted for binding arbitration in London while taking my staff temporarily out of harm’s way. Stamico themselves publicly announced the imposition of Force Majeure with rather cordial words.
As a result, our expenses are now under $100,000 per month and we have gold on the pads. The mine is protected by uniformed armed guards that were previously Tanzanian special forces. They are trained to protect.
It is my long held, firm belief that the price of gold is headed much higher, making the recent multiyear decline not a gold bear market, but rather a simple reaction in the gold bull market of all time that will be seen reaching prices that most gold analysts cannot even imagine.
If you as a gold company had nothing you would never have a single problem. If you are a gold company of significant merit you must fight a vicious war 24/7 until cashed high enough to be a force yourself.
Nobody bothers claim jumping a piece of junk. Nobody organizes to create mass hatred using modern communication methods without a defined motive. Nobody attacks a market with such professionalism except to attempt to cut off financing, thereby rendering the company an easy hostile takeover target.
This is a business requiring instant decision making processes driven by the constant willingness to act instantly to protect itself under international law and therefore to the best interest of its family of investors.
Best wishes,
Jim
Markedtofuture – thanks for that post on Tanzanian Royalty Exploration.
What an absolute mess….. I do like the attitude of hitting the government back with Force Majeure and defending their assets.
I completely agree with Jim’s comment, “Nobody bothers claim jumping a piece of junk,” in reference to the Chinese national mining company trying to get dibs on Buckreef.
It is very sad that when people have something of value, that the “have nots” feel instead of building their own business and building wealth, that they’d rather steal someone else’s vision.
Excelsior – Sinclair has done a lot for the gold community. It’s amazing all these problems developed going into gold’s low’s. Allied Nevada and Rubicon are unusual unexplained stories.
I am glad Sinclair is standing up. The Tanzanian government has been dragging their feet on Kigosi for years. That should have been producing back in 2010 or 2011.
If this One Bank piece has already been posted…sorry for the duplication. It blends with all the BS, that has been going on in mining, during the gold bottoming process.
The Mystery of the One Bank: its Owners? – Jeff Nielson
February 12, 2016
Roughly 2 ½ years ago ; readers were introduced to a paradigm of crime, corruption, and control which they now know as “the One Bank”. First they were presented with a definition and description of this crime syndicate.
That definition came via a massive computer model constructed by a trio of Swiss academics, and cited with favor by Forbes magazine . The computer model was based upon data involving more than 10 million “economic actors”, both individuals and corporations, and the conclusions which that model produced were nothing less than shocking.
The One Bank is “a super-entity” comprised of 144 corporate fronts, with approximately ¾ of these corporate fronts being financial intermediaries (i.e. “banks”). According to the Swiss computer model; via these 144 corporate tentacles, the One Bank controls approximately 40% of the global economy . The only thing more appalling than the massive size of this crime syndicate is its massive illegality.
Some of the strongest laws in the Western world were created precisely to prevent such corporate concentration from ever coming into existence, and thus the crime, corruption, and conspiracy which automatically accompanies it. These are our “anti-trust laws”, laws which our puppet governments have long since ceased to enforce. The evidence of this crime/corruption/conspiracy is all around us.
continued….https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/the-mystery-of-the-one-bank-its-owners-jeff-nielson.html
One Bank to rule them all, One Bank to find them,
One Bank to bring them all and in the darkness bind them
Agreed MarkedtoFuture. It is very odd all this is happening at the bottom, but not really…..they realize things are about to get moving again and everyone wants to take a swipe at a piece of the pie.
GH – A fantastic analogy…..
This scene is for you:
LOTR – The Shadow of the Past Part 1
But, but… but guys, there’s no manipulation… remember?
“Silver has been the target of the same old manipulators as usual. So be very careful in this market.” — Martin Armstrong, 2010
Hmm, One comprised of 144. Fuhgeddaboudit.
MARKEDTOFUTURE………DITTO ON SINCLAIR……..
After rising 130% vs gold since 2011, the US dollar index does not look vs gold good now:
After rising 70% vs gold since 2011, the dollar in your pocket does not look good vs gold now:
The dollars in my pocket are upset now 🙁
I’ll console them by showing them a slide show of our National Debt…..and the amount of their family members that have been born lately (I mean printed)
It’s interesting isn’t it? Cash did great vs gold since 2011 but cash parked in the dollar index ETF UUP was almost twice as great.
Why do you think that UUP was up so much more than Cash? That is a bit curious….
It’s just what I’ve pointed out before: The dollar in your pocket is not the same thing as the dollar that we trade since the former is measured by its purchasing power in the real world while the latter is measured by a basket of foreign currencies. This is why the real price of gold matters a lot more to the miners than the dollar price.
Isn’t it something that gold was worth less than 7 ounces of gold when it traded around $1,000 in 2008 but is worth 43 barrels now despite just a 20%+ gain in its dollar value?
Gold is up very substantially over the last year. Just because the dollar is up more does not change that fact. Gold has always been the superior, more stable measure of value. It doesn’t appear to be the case in the short term because the dollar is not allowed to compete and dollar prices take time to adjust to economic forces (for example, bread at the store doesn’t fall in unison with the wheat price and gasoline at the pump doesn’t fall with the price of a barrel of oil). Priced in gold, fuel for your car is cheaper now than it was when gold hit 1923 in 2011. Again, purchasing power was gained, not lost. The dollar just gained a lot more.
When (IF) people wake up, we’ll know it because the gold price will become known as the dollar price and people will look to it to see how much the dollar has gone up or down that day.
I look forward to that day, if it ever gets here.
I just saw a dumb typo: should be 7 barrels of oil not “ounces of gold” (second paragraph).
Relative to stocks, the 30 year US T bond is a buy.
Relative to gold, the 30 year US T bond is a sell.
Annotated:
I agree, and I must add that you actually crack me up with your dislike of US treasury bonds. I get it though, government paper is a nasty business partner, and with Gold you can give the governments and central banks of the world the finger.
It just makes me smile when you begrudgingly give TLT a better than equities nod, but then take, what seems like, particular joy in pointing out Gold looks better. 🙂
Matthew you’re great, and I really appreciate all your analysis man.
I just wonder how many people realize the implications of that gold:USB chart. It is very, very bullish for gold.
Yes I agree. Gold is absolutely the best store of value the planet’s ever seen.
For short duration time periods I’m willing to sleep with the enemy (current govt regime) for short amounts of time and park my cash in long term US treasuries because it very liquid, fairly stable, and better than a savings account.
I’ve typically parked my “Dry Powder” in the ETF (TLT) over the last few years as a temporary storage tank. I have no love for government debt, but it’s easier to do business with the devil you know…..
Longer term Gold Silver are the most tried, tested, and true stores of value. (I do have an affinity for the PGMs as well, but I know, I know, they are mostly industrial metals…..but still kinda precious).
If safety comes first, I would choose the 2 year.
Not overly safe….I like a fishing pole in the water and there is enough volatility in the longer term treasuries that can provide good opportunities to buy into lows and hold it as it rises (for now).
Sorry I meant $USB …..but TLT tracks the 30 year…. so same idea.
DOWN $6 ….early trading……….
Trump said it all on the last Republican debate, George Bush invaded Iraq knowing there were no weapons of mass destruction, The US has paid dearly for this several trillion dollars, and thousands of military lives lost and maimed. But somehow this is lost on most Americans minds because they think their military has their best interests at heart. The neo-cons are in charge. DT
Thanks as always for the weekend show.
Appreciate your efforts
Cheers.