US markets, gold and the US dollar
Chatting with Rick Ackerman today we touch on a number of markets and ask the question is there a safe investment out there?
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DITTO
3 MONTH TBILLS…………at zero rate…….zero “0”….first time ever…….
Rick, if the US equity markets are in a bear market (already) and the only buying is that of short position covering with the most recent off the NFP data suggesting a US rate hike will be pushed back further, then without any doubt the precious metals sector is and has been in a bear market for years and the only runs higher towards yet another lower high before heading lower again is without a doubt short covering nothing more.
Taking out with a close above $1156 then $1169 will be a struggle well before peaking out again at $1205….$1232 previous tops (lower highs)
Still long the miners since mid Sept with resistance levels on full alert knowing full well mid Oct into late Nov early Dec has not been very kind to the pm’s sector
Rick why do you say it’s hard to be bullish?
Stocks are the safe haven play against zirp and the next round of QE
This had been the play for years
Why do you say the payroll # cannot be interpreted or doesn’t mean anything.
The interpretation is clear, bad number means no interest rate hike, means buy stocks!
Very easy trade that has been working for years now
Your 120 $ call is on the wrong side of this trade and history
Very dangerous if you follow this call
James, the S&P500 rose 40% in the 80’s while the $ rose 66 cents! again the S&P rose 240% as the $ rose 30 cents from mid 90’s to 2000 and when the $ rose from 71 to 100 the S&P500 rose 220%…global money flowed into equities driving the $ higher
It’s hard to be bullish at the bottom James!
Can’t wait to see what’s in the non-earnings report.
One place to look for solace in gold is the $CAD price. Another place would be in futures spreads. If you’re a believer in lower interest rates, then very high probability that the spread between bond prices and gold will narrow.
http://quotes.ino.com/charting/index.html?s=NYMEX_GC.Z15_M21.E&t=l&a=0&w=1&v=dmax
Want to figure out why stocks are in a bear market? Simple. Credit is collapsing, TED spread us widening:
In addition, high PE’s and projected much lower earnings report coming out the end of the month……………
Thanks Rick. Those were excellent comments. The one thing I would disagree with over the short term though is the direction of the 30 year. We are posting a double top now and I expect declines are ahead so TLT is not on a buy.
I agree. Long term bonds going to 1.86% yield sounds scarier to me than the dollar over 120.
Gary Shilling comments on where he thinks interest rates are going:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/gary-shilling-30-bond-going-115419243.html
(Click on Shilling’s photo, and scroll through to the interview – Hilarious, because his name is like, ‘Garry Penny’)
Rich Man’s Panic – Isn’t what’s happening with Glencore and other massive commodities companies almost exactly similar to 1907?
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/history/the-copper-kings-precipitous-fall-44306513/
While I enjoy Rick’s comments, I wouldn’t touch a short or long term bond with a ten foot pole. Just my humble opinion………………………..