Watch for reversals in a number of markets
We start today off with Gary and his comments of gold, oil, and the conventional markets. He feels as though there could be some reversals in gold and the US markets – but the US markets will have o go through another scary drop.
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This is Lawrence’s new ID BTW.
Hi Gary,
If we are looking at a sizeable drop in the main markets, with a possible QE, and a slingshot ‘V’ …… how is that going to help Gold/Silver and the junior miners?
Do you think it’s all going to go up together?
Gary is always bullish on Gold and metals.
Tom,
For well over a year I was the only one calling for gold to test the 1030 level. 1070 was probably close enough. The COT is bullish and sentiment is extreme. I think it’s time to get bullish.
Gary mentioned that major turns in the market happen at a breakdown or break-out of a significant technical zone. Indeed and as Dana Lyons wrote (see web site link below) the broad-based Value Line Composite is testing a mega-critical level.
“The Value Line Geometric Composite (VLG) is an unweighted average of roughly 1700 U.S. Stocks. This makes it, in our view the most accurate index in instructing investors of the true state of the U.S. stock ‘market.'”
“To reiterate the significance of the mid-430’s level, it marks a confluence of Fibonacci Retracement levels drawn from the important lows since 2009 to the April high. Specifically, we find these 3 levels all within close proximity:
* “The 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the 2009-2015 Rally: 436
* The 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of the 2011-2015 Rally: 436
* The 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of the Rally from 2013 Breakout point to the April High: 433
*Additionally, the 1000-day simple moving average (approximately the 200-week moving average): 435”
“The Value Line Composite [bottomed] at 439 August 25.”
“That brings us to today’s Chart of the Day and post. The mid-430’s level is back in full focus as the Value line Geometric Composite [VALUG] is knee-deep in re-test mode, closing [9/28] at 32.32 today.
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/130115213865/us-stocks-facing-their-biggest-test-in-8-years
The 200 week moving average has been broken for the first time in four years:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XVG&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41468349736
vlg, I guess everyone has heard of that but me, but these things seem to never stop popping up, how many are there?
I find it interesting that gold is at 1127 now, off $5 while miner indexes are both still positive. Are they anticipating the outcome Gary mentioned in his interview? It has been many days since we saw this type of divergence. He may be on to something.
Yep ! When gold price down further but gold miner ETF such as GDX or GDXJ move up, gold price is bottomed.
see you at 16.75 on the $XAU
LOL
Gold on Kitco DOWN in ALL 14 currencies they show.
Including silver 😉
That REALLY depends on your timeframe silverbug, gold in Canadian has been hovering 1500 for quite awhile, $20,$30 up down but always about $1500.
The 1 second chart will show lottsa up/down.
I believe the low in Canadian dollar was made at the end of 2013 at around 1230s
I think Dave is talking about today.
I dont follow gdx or j, I watch the kitco list, Ive bin seeing this “divergance” for awhile.
On and off, gold and the U.S. dollar move together a imes, shares move with without or opposite gold at times,
Seems kinda random to me.
Except, companies loosing money seem to drop more when gold goes down than companies that make money.
I also see companies that are profitabe seem to move up quite quickly when gold moves up.
Its all relative I guess and It looks to me most companies profitable or not have a ways to drop yet should gold move down.
Another thing I “think” I see is HUGE MUNCHABLE,TASTEY, most enjoyable meals of profitable goldshares should gold get below $1000.
Profitable Goldshares at $800 could be life changing for those people properly positioned.
On the other hand, a sure sports bet winner is to go opposite the way I go, so whata I know? lol
Gary,
Good analysis, however there can be another viable scenario.
Market test recent lows or even marginally break through them and turn around for year end rally, during which FED gets a chance to rate interest rates. This enables $ (which appears to be forming BULL flag) to rally starting next year for next leg up. This is turn will start the grueling turn in the markets to test 2007 highs, however the low will not happen quickly but rather would take several months. By this time, turmoil across the globe increases and we shall witness commodities rising with $. Fed will be forced to initiate QE4 which will be end of $ trend and that’s when the next BULL market begins in both commodities & stock market.
Just another view….
Off topic.
I saw an article which might be interesting to some people
China clears preliminary reviews for 31 nuclear plant sites
Taipei, Sept. 27 (CNA) Some 31 inland sites in China selected to build nuclear power plants have cleared the preliminary reviews by the Chinese government, signaling a restart of China’s inland nuclear program that has been stalled after the 2011 Fukushima disaster in Japan.
Beijing-based business daily China Times cited sources from the nuclear industry as reporting recently that the Chinese Academy of Engineering and the China Nuclear Energy Association already launched safety checks on the country’s inland sites that are expected to build nuclear power plants.
The agencies have completed preliminary reviews of a feasibility study for 31 possible nuclear power plant sites after more than 10 Chinese provinces asked to develop nuclear energy, the report said.
The study results have been submitted to China’s state council in written reports for final approval, which could lead to the start of construction of inland nuclear power plants, according to an energy expert at China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), who was cited by the newspaper.
An anonymous industry source told the publication that China may restart its inland nuclear program with three possible nuclear power plant sites in Tao Hua Jiang Township of Hunan Province, Xianning City of Hubei Province and Pengze County of Jiangxi Province, which have received approval from the NDRC and are waiting for official orders to begin construction.
China’s International Energy Agency estimates that atomic energy now accounts for only 2 percent of the country’s total power generation.
Read more at http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.cco/cameco-corp#oiB4z4sOX4babKhi.99