Political consequences of a market collapse
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1-2: Dan Oliver, President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, chats about political consequences of a market collapse.
- Segment 3: Chuck Provini, CEO and President of Natcore Techology, chats about the recent President’s message to shareholders.
- Segment 4: We discuss gold and silver with a world renown expert, George Gero, Past President of the International Precious Metals Institute and currently Senior Vice President – Financial Advisor with RBC Wealth Management.
- Segment 5: Kyler Hardy, CEO and President introduces his company Equitas Resources.
- Segment 6: Chris Martenson from Peak Prosperity joins us to discuss his new book Prosper!: How to Prepare for the Future and Create a World Worth Inheriting, coming out in late October.
- Segment 7-8: We have some fun with politics in a conversation with Dr. Richard Postma, AKA Doc, Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, and Jay Taylor of Gold, Energy & Tech Stocks.
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Al, in yesterday’s wrap-up you said a lot of people called you a buffoon. I for one have never called you a buffoon for lack of a better term. Hang in there.
For lack of better terms….I agree with you Bonzon Barzini…. 🙂
Big Al & Cory keep up the great work putting together great thinkers, economists, CEOs, and all the contributors you bring to the community to expose us to different ideas. It was good to hear from George Gero, he’s got a good handle on commodities.
Good luck to everyone next week in the wait and see what the Fed is going to do and Shemitah week! Instead of chaos, there may be so many forces pulling in all directions that we get a tug-o-war stalemate and snorefest.
Regardless it will be the first time in the last month that I’ll be watching more carefully for a potential change in the guard in many commodity sectors for a short term move (post FOMC). There may be lower low at the beginning of the week in commodities, and the general markets may climb a bit, but if the US dollar gets smacked down, then I expect commodities to benefit.
I don’t think that it will, at least this coming week.
Thanks Bonzo!
So if there was a better term than bafoon you would use it? Don’t be dissing on my boy Big Al!
Thanks, Jason!
You may be surprised in 16!
probable
http://kingworldnews.com/nomi-prins-broadcast-interview-available-now-9-12-15/
Good comments re: China and US.
Interesting divergence between mining stocks, going up mostly, and precious metals, going down!
Re: Segments 7-8
The problem lies in the Republican Leadership in the Senate and the House. Totally BOUGHT CRONY capitalism.
Or it may also be the NSA program has so much dirt that Obama can blackmail the leadership. It is unbeleivable that Obama can create a Treaty with Iran, but not have the Senate treat it as a treaty.
The internet, however, has created a whole new information world.
If the NSA is used in that way (which I think is inevitable), it seems unlikely to me that it is the sitting president who gets to wield this power.
Hasn’ t it though!
Bernie Sanders looks like an extreme socialist, from over here in Europe. How can any sane person vote for him.
Last Night of the Proms tonight at Albert Hall……more interesting than US politics!
Then over to Paris for me.
Over here London is definitely swinging to extreme socialisn, so it may be the happening thing! (Saddiq Khan for mayor, unbelievable!)
The racism in the US was whipped up by Obama and Holder, deliberately!
How on earth could Sharpton visit the White House more than a 100 times if Obama was not a racist?
Agree on all of that Professor!
Bernie can be seen as an IQ test. His supporters believe that problems caused by socialism can be cured with more socialism. I know that the same is true of most Ds and Rs, but they at least THINK they’re against socialism. Bernie’s followers, on the other hand, know what they’re voting for, so in doing so, put neon lights around their ignorance. The really stupid ones actually compare Bernie to Ron Paul. Unbelievable.
Sanders to Dr Paul? Interesting
Big Al and Cory,
I was stunned to see you guys interview Equitas Resources CEO Kyler Hardy. I didn’t even know you folks knew about the small unknown company.
I’m a large shareholder so I’m bias, but if these guys hit some nice drill results in the upcoming drill program the potential for this little company is quite exciting, even in this dead market.
I’ll openly admit this is a huge spec play so no rent or food money whatsoever, but worth a roll of the dice imo.
Thanks for the show guys.
Vortex- bmr.com. a lot if info and discussion regarding EQT
We are invested in EQT
Thanks Ann, appreciate the tip.
Jeremy Corbyn elected new leader of the British Labour party. New Labour is dead…see what happens now.
Andy, I dont think that Americans care about what is happening in Europe, they barely care what is happening here in the US. The number of non US participants on this site amazes me.
Thanks for weighing in on this V
This is the only info that crossed my desk, what are your thoughts, Andy?
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37148
Martin certainly makes a good point!
The Labour party died when Tony Blair took the reigns and ruined it. The Labour party is going back to its roots. You may not like it but you can vote for the neoliberal Cons then. Now there is a clear choice between the two. If you want to know what it is like to live in the U.K read James Meeks book called Private Island: Why Britain Now Belongs to Someone Else.
DAN O……..SEG 2…….great comment on the…. “one time shift, and if you miss it , you miss it”
Dan Oliver, quite simply a very intelligent high I.Q. man.
Thank you for interviewing him, he is a great asset.
You bet he is, Dave!
I really enjoy listening to Dan Oliver as does Dave and others. I feel he is right on in his thoughts on the credit bubble, the precariousness of the banking industry derivative positions, liquidity, conventional markets discounting of cash flows and the ultimate response of central banks in the future to a resultant conventional market crash due to liquidity issues. However, in my view he was a little cavalier in his comments on charting and the value inherent in charting. Charting is the only way to predict future pricing and to position investors for the coming hurricane which Dan so adroitly points out. Charting has allowed certain investors to not take positions that were ruinous to take if based just on “fundamentals”. Charting also is valuable since it currently is warning investors to be prudent and patient for the time when the charts will suggest that it’s finally optimal to take positions for the impending hurricane. It might be that Dan is primarily a fundamentalist and has not studied the art of charting to the degree where he could appreciate the strengths of combining fundamentalism with technical charting. Having said that; I’ll end by saying how much I appreciate his thoughts on the fundamental position of the markets/economies we currently are in and the fundamentals of the future storm gatherings for those markets/economies. I couldn’t agree more.
Agreed Doc. Dan Oliver is a great thinker, macro-economist, and huge asset to the show on the weekends. However, as a trader, as Cory also mentioned, charting helps identify potential changes in sentiment, momentum, strength, where turns or support or resistance may be, moving averages, retracement levels to expect, etc…
That’s why I listen to what a variety of people have to say, but I test their theories and postulating against what the charts are saying as the facts and price levels make themselves known.
That comment from Dan disparaging technical charting really surprised me too.
Peter Grandich made similar remarks this week referring to Elliot Wave technicians being unreliable and correcting wave counts after the fact (but even I will admit that some Elliot guys are totally off the wall with wave count methods and they make the idea so technically impossible it loses all credibility).
The thing is though that technicals are ideally suited to computer analysis. That’s why algos are programmed to kick back when key support and resistance levels are met. It’s why they respond to moving averages, Fibbonacci’s and other mathematical formulas and patterns.
We saw this recently when the declines in the S&P stopped right on the 200 MA. And knowing that the majority of buying and selling is now computer generated it does not take a lot of insight to appreciate that the computer presets were already programmed to recognize that key support.
As individual investors we need to be extra aware of how the buying and selling in today’s markets are conducted around technical turning points that are really all based on number systems (math) and thus being substantially driven by machines.
Otherwise you might just as well be driving blindfolded on the market each day.
Agreed about the computer algos keying off moving averages or Fib numbers. There as so many trading platforms, computer programs, and systems keying off these numbers that the become self-fulfilling prophecies. To ignore these levels, patterns, trend-lines, etc… is like driving blindfolded.
Technical indicators provide clues to changes and when to buy and sell. If you are just going to buy and hold, they still give indications of when a good entry point is, and when certain stocks or ETFs or Sectors are topping out. As for Elliot Wave, I still get some value from it as a tool, and there are certain analysts that do well with it like Avi Gilburt, Gary Wagner, and Sid Norris. http://elliottwavepredictions.com
Having said that, I do agree and have said for some times that Elliot Wave gets a bit kooky depending on where people start and end their wave counts, and then there are smaller counts within, larger counts, within larger counts, that are greatly affected by where people start and end their counts as well. Often times you have Elliot Wave technicians reaching completely different and at times opposing view points, so many times the analysis is very subjective. It is more an art than a science at times, and sometimes wave counts have to be analyzed with fresh eyes if a pattern breaks down. I like it when Elliot Wave coincides with other key indictators so that there are 2-3 signals pointing to a key level or directional move.
No system is right 100% of the time or even 80% of the time, but technical analysis has it’s place. Fundamentals so often are ignored or the markets will move in the opposite directions one would imagine, so relying on them for the short to mid-term is financial suicide, however on longer periods of time they always win out.
I especially agree on the short segment trade periods Shad. It is getting harder and harder to trade effectively over those small time periods when computers are working the hardest. Using stops is hopeless and usually just results in your getting scalped and locking in losses as the machines spike prices up and down over brief intervals. The methods now being used have become very adept at forcing both buys and sells and profiting on the losses on both sides simultaneously as individuals who had stops or pre-set buys in place get screwed at both ends of the price spectrum.
Yep. I do best getting in with a target goal to make and get back out to regroup. The same with a tier approach in and out to fade in the trading to minimize risk.
Maybe the market has changed intentions from price discovery to fleecing?
With algoes acting as you’ve explained is there any point to markets?
Have we gone from “better informed” to “beat algoes”?
If support and resistance have become the required info on a company, how does the project matter? or company financials?
Surely people will figure this out and just stay away, or maybe the money to be made is in selling algo programs, like the pan seller during the goldrush.
Sounds like markets have lost their meaning.
BB there are many days where I feel the same way, but as mentioned above, for the longer term the fundamentals due win in the end. Eventually quality projects, good earnings, growth, great or bad economics, supply demand, etc…. absolutely bear out.
In the interim, technical analysis gives the short and mid term forecasting ability but nobody has a crystal ball or can say definitively what will happen tomorrow. The point was just being made that so many computer programs, trading platforms, and technical systems trade off these same target areas and math formulas, that to ignore them is unwise and costly. This is why TA is more important for price discovery in the short to mid term, but it can not anticipate major fundamental black swans (unexpected by nature).
Good luck in your trading and may we all get better each day!
Interesting comments, Shad. I pretty much agree with you.
fundamental “do” not “due” win in the end…..
absolutely “bare out” not “bear out”….
Thanks Big Al. The market is dynamic, evolving, and ever-changing; but, there are patterns and movements that rhyme in cycles, or mathematical patterns that seem to play out more often than not, and that is what technical analysis takes into account. It is astonishing how in life, in nature, in outer space, in the human body, and yes, even in stock markets that these golden ratios play out, that behavior and sentiment rides in cycles and waves, and how whether consciously or unconsciously the markets unfold with the language of the universe – mathematics.
I do still review fundamental information for 2 reasons: (1) in the long term they are important (2) they’re so dang fascinating….
Cheers!
I am a small investor in Natcore. My sole question to Mr. Provini would be: How come there has been no insider buying of Natcore for the past 5 years in light of this seemingly scientific breakthrough? (according to Scottrade analysis)
Interesting question.
Here’s an article from Valentin Schmid’s outfit.
Could this technology (liquid solar) blow Natcore out of the water? (No pun intended.)
Thanks for the article…………….
cfs— believe me Bernie is not extreme….rhetoric is not necessarily transmitted into action…cmon…
Agatha – sadly, I think you’re right. The world is unlikely to be a better place until people like him ARE considered to be extreme.
Agatha, have we met before?
funny…………I bet you could write a book on it………. 🙂
it would be a crime not to have read Agatha Christie…….
Segment 4 with George Gero:
George said something I thought was really interesting at the end of the interview (near the 9:25 mark). He noted that the Chinese are using the gold market as a way to recycle excess dollars and as an alternative to buying additional treasuries. His comment was that they can dump dollars into gold when necessary and this is what was behind their buying. In other words, gold due to its depth and liquidity is a very convenient tool of the Central Bank and it offers an alternative to buying other currencies. So therefore, their regular purchases are for quite different reasons than most people suspect.
Here’s a good market wrap with George Gero’s RBC Wealth Management team:
A Listener; I agree with your thoughts. I believe the reasons the Chinese are purchasing gold are: 1. To bring balance to their foreign exchange account 2. To give indirect backing to the yuan and validity to their currency 3. Another reason for their currency to be considered for the IMF SDR basket 4. Another variable in their march toward currency legitimacy and a possibility of shared reserved currency 5. A major hedge for their dollar treasury holdings—-if the dollar is ultimately weakened, holding gold will protect their wealth held in treasuries.
Not sure what to make about the comment about “using the gold market as a WAY to recycling excess dollars and as an alternative to buying additional treasuries.”
Let me elaborate a touch:
Currently, 1 MT of gold costs c. $35mn on a spot basis.
Said it differently, US$1bn buys 28MT of gold – i.e about 10% of current global monthly output.
If China spends a – tiny – $10bn worth buying gold, at current prices, that’s about 280MT that they can buy….
==> I suspect everyone will concur that buying $10bn worth of gold IS a step toward diversification of reserves per se, but it ain’t gonna change the whole picture at all.
So let’s say China allocates $100bn worth to gold purchases. That’s a bit more interesting. It means that at current prices, they can buy 2800 MT, ie almost one year worth of global mining output. But frankly, that’s quite significant.
IMHO, something doesn’t jive here:
Either global mining output wayyyyyyy understated,
Either China is not buying gold as much as we think they are – hence the suspicion/argument is weak
Or China manages to get a lot of scrap gold (hence what they tap into is not only newly mined gold but also scrap gold – ie “inventories”)
Or the big holders of gold don’t have as much of it as they pretend – coz China maybe is buying a lot from them
My 2cts.
LPG
Good thoughts LPG. Btw, I think you meant jibe not jive. 😉 These days, it’s a common mistake even among those whose first language is English but I think I’m right to assume that you’re the kind of guy who’d want to know (yes, I mean that as compliment).
http://grammar.about.com/od/alightersideofwriting/a/Gibe-And-Jibe.htm
🙂
Jive Talkin’…….
I hear very few people that say “Something doesn’t jibe” and it is far more common to hear “Something doesn’t jive” in present dialect. One of the informal uses of Jive = “to talk nonsense” or to “taunt or sneer”.
* There are more definitions for Jive beyond it’s Jazz roots. (BTW I spent last Labor day weekend Jivin’ in the aisles at the Chicago’s Jazz Fest).
___________________________________________
Jive
jīv/Submit – noun
noun: jive; plural noun: jives; noun: jive talk; plural noun: jive talks
1. a lively style of dance popular especially in the 1940s and 1950s, performed to swing music or rock and roll.
swing music – a style of dance music popular in South Africa.
“township jive”
2. a form of slang associated with black American jazz musicians.
NORTH AMERICAN – informal
a thing, especially talk, that is deceptive or worthless.
“a single image says more than any amount of blather and jive”
verb: jive; 3rd person present: jives; past tense: jived; past participle: jived; gerund or present participle: jiving
1.
perform the jive or a similar dance to popular music.
“people were jiving in the aisles”
2. NORTH AMERICAN – informal
taunt or sneer at.
“Willy kept jiving him until Jimmy left”
talk nonsense.
“he wasn’t jiving about that bartender”
adjective – NORTH AMERICAN – informal
adjective: jive
1. deceitful or worthless.
Origin – 1920s (originally US denoting meaningless or misleading speech): of unknown origin; the later music
Heard some wonderful jazz Nd blues yesterday! Music adds much to life!
“denoting meaningless or misleading speech” as a definition above also would apply.
I have to disagree, Shad. LPG said something “doesn’t jive.” In order for your “meaningless or misleading speech” usage to apply, LPG would have had to say something like “they’re jiving us,” “talking jive,” or simply “it’s jive.”
I don’t think it’s more common in all circles to hear “jive” in place of “jibe.” It depends a lot on age and background but even if “jive” takes over it will be a case of wrong becoming right by popular opinion. Kind of like “ain’t.”
Yes, I stand corrected. It would make more sense to say “talking Jive.”
or “Why is China Jivin’ us with that data?”
or “that Chinese gold data is Jive.”
Having consented to that, I still don’t hear “Something doesn’t Jibe” in normal conversation, but hear people say “Something doesn’t Jive” all the time. But hey, I’m in the deep south so it is probably just a new “MEME” like any new shift in vernacular. (whether wrong on right)…..Can you dig it?
A meme (/ˈmiːm/ meem) is “an idea, behavior, or style that spreads from person to person within a culture”.
Actually, until today couldn’t remember the last time I heard anyone say Jibe.
I always thought Jibing had to do with sailing.
Jibe
SAILING – verb – US
1.change course by swinging a fore-and-aft sail across a following wind.
“they jibed, and the boat turned over”
swing (a sail or boom) across a following wind.
(of a sail or boom) swing or be swung across a following wind.
“the skipper was hit by a jibing boom”
noun: gybe; plural noun: gybes; noun: jibe; plural noun: jibes
1.an act or instance of jibing.
That’s what I thought too.
Yes Big Al – I agree that “Music adds much to life!”
I’m just not sure about the song Jive Talkin’ by the Bee Gees 🙂 (Ha!)
Just kidding Matthew. I listened to the whole song and got my disco funk on and started Jivin’!!
Never cared a lot for disco. The lights made me dizzy!
There may have even been a little Jibing going on…..
Hey, I’m not sure about Jive Talkin either!
Funny! This has been as much fun as when we discussed Yep versus Yup……
Nobody can say we don’t dig into the key issues here on this blog. 😉
That is one of the things that make it fun!
Matthew,
Thanks for pointing that out: appreciated.
I’ve done a quick search/few reads and I think you’re right re: “jibe”.
I’m glad I’ve learned one more thing today 🙂
Best to you as always and GL for the upcoming week.
LPG
Yeup!
Best and GL to you LPG.
(That “yeup” above was for Shad 🙂 )
Matthew – thanks for the Yeup….. Now that sounds much more like the people I interact with on a daily basis down here in the south 🙂
hi : As much as i like gold and silver, i think gold goes to 900 before we get a long term rally in gold or silver. I like bonds and prefereds on oil producers . they are very cheap , but you must research the financial statements first , as some producers will survive and others may go bankrupt . i am shot 2 oil producers now, but long prefereds on others. best of health and wealth to you all S
“IT’S not a fair market”……..DICK GRASSO…..EX NY EXCHANGE PRES….says .
(great little article at zerohedge.)
This guy should not be crying…..he made off with $149Million, maybe the pig wants more, boo hoo……………………………………………………ootb
This might give trump a lift in the polls if anyone still pays attention to what Democrats in California do. And what a weird response from the Republican senat
California Senate passes resolution to ‘dump Trump’
http://www.sacbee.com/news/politics-government/capitol-alert/article35021343.html
And what a weird response from the Republican senat
senate leader.
Dang it, Bobby! Browser crashed.
That is nuts. Meanwhile, the sheeple, in their infinite ignorance, continue to believe that “doom and gloomers” were somehow wrong about the state of things in the USSA.
CA is taxing the shiite outta energy.
CA started it’s Cap-N-Trade aka Cap-N-Tax system this year. Already it’s caused gas to go up over 10 cents a gallon.
And the DemoNRats were trying to push through another 12 cent a gallon gas tax and an increase in the vehicle registration tax this year.
And every year the Cap-N-Tax tax on gas and all other forms of “non-renewable” energy will automatically go up as the CA government reduces the number of carbon credits in circulation.
By the time oil gets back up to $80 a barrel gas will be over $5 a gallon in CA.
That would be amazing!
Anyone who still believes US Gov does not care about gold’s role in intl’ money system simply isnt paying attention .
Almost every solution offered in this doc involves de-monetization of gold and coordinated central bank gold sales.
http://history.state.gov/historicaldocuments/frus1969-76v31/d61
“U.S. objectives for the world monetary system—a durable, stable system, with the SDR as a strong reserve asset at its center—are incompatible with a continued important role for gold as a reserve asset.”
“It is the U.S. concern that any substantial increase now in the price at which official gold transactions are made would strengthen the position of gold in the system, and cripple the SDR.”
“To encourage and facilitate the eventual demonetization of gold, our position is to keep the present gold price, maintain the present Bretton Woods agreement ban against official gold purchases at above the official price6 and encourage the gradual disposition of monetary gold through sales in the private market.”
“A system of sales, but no purchases, to the private market would mitigate this tendency.”
“From the Arab point of view such an asset would have the advantages of being protected from exchange-rate changes and inflation, and subject to absolute national control.”
“Advantages: If successful, we will keep gold from regaining strength as an international reserve asset, maintain the strength of the SDR, and probably eventually obtain the demonetization of gold and a more rational, stable international monetary system. ”
“Another variant on this proposal would have countries agree to pre-determined, gradual direct sales to the private market.”
+1
While most politicians are too dumb to care about gold, rest assured that their masters are not.
Sure…….Just agree with yourself.
You have serious issues if you think anyone here doesn’t know you’re Birdman.
Me!? LOL
Nope. Billman maybe…
I don’t know if you noticed but the dozen or so comments above are completely out of order and not where they should be.
Mathew… after I launched I relized their screwed.
BTW Puru Saxena is a guy I give 2 thumbs up.
If the US market has another nose dive Id be grabbing some high yield qaulity stocks.
Im still not bullish in Gold.
I haven’t bought gold in many years and I wouldn’t buy it now unless I had none at all. The miners are where the opportunities are.
ditto
I would say good luck with that crap shoot😬
At this point, nearly everyone would. 😮
Barrick gold. 26 year lows and a bell weather of sorts. So many disasters.
If you want to make the most money you have to buy what no one else is willing to. The miners are way too cheap here and sentiment is so bad that no one will believe the new reality even after the sector doubles. Many who have been long will happily sell the coming rise and that will be a big mistake.
Omg this thread sucks as it lands way up top.
Oh I aggree with that logic that worked in 2000 perfectly. Today Im still not sure if we are ready to bounce? All markets in a funk gor now.
Mathew, has it ever occurred that you might be the only person that thinks it matters or gives a poop?
BenB, has it occurred to you that it makes no difference to me if I am?
Matthew’s right BB – even Al addressed him as Bird after his name change. But as we’re all agreed who gives a dam?
Not sure but I think it is Bird
I do not agree. You are both great!
They are trying to put me in a birdcage Al.
Don’t cooperate!
It’s a cage of your own making Bird Listener. “Funny” how you cry about my “insulting” comments and demand (like a little girl) that they be removed yet you have no problem spewing uncalled-for insults at Andrew.
Oh common, man, all of the? Thai is just plain silly!
Of course they are upset with you, just as they are with JJ and James the lesser.
You said the unforgivable, “golds goin down”
To add salt to the wound you called drops repeatedly and sometimes to the day.
Definitely outside the parameters of Marquess of Queensberry.
Entirely uncalled for.
Sorry Al. You are right. Please permanently remove that unfortunate comment.
Politicians care about getting elected and keeping the economy going. Why would they care about Gold?
Cities were built on the finacial system we have. Not perfect but not bad for a bunch of Monkeys!
Like I said, they are too stupid —just like those who vote for them.
The doubletalk is amazing:
“a durable, stable system, with the SDR as a strong reserve asset at its center” & “a more rational, stable international monetary system”.
Yeah, right. That’s what they’ve given us, a stable, rational system.
Makes you wonder if they believe their own garbage. But they don’t get to where they get without mastering bizarro logic, speaking in code, and doubletalking as second nature.
IF the downward move from september is corrective (triple zig-zag),
we can apply this EW count for gold :
http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/Gold-weekly-9-11-14.png
Interesting.
Thanks, that is interesting even though I am not qualified to critique EW.
Sid Norris does a pretty good job with Elliott Wave analysis, so I also was looking at this chart for his thoughts.
Thanks Shad. I agree with him that gold’s movement down since September 2011 should be interpreted as corrective.
Yes, in the larger 20-30 year secular bull trend the 4 year cyclical bear in PMs is just corrective in nature. There will be plenty of years of secular bull market left in Gold as these currency wars wage on into the future……
I figured you were in agreement.
To be fair, this is the alternate count (bearish). In both case we should go up now ,,,
http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/GLD-weekly-9-11-15.png
This is not the count that I prefer …:(
Thanks, that’s just as interesting but I don’t prefer it either. 😐
On the bright side, even the bearish scenario points to a decent move up first. 🙂
Gabriel, I believe this scenario is more like what Avi was discussing with the larger wave 5 down still looming. It also matches up with Doc and Jordan Roy-Byrne and Gary Wagner think could happen as a lower leg down. Even though I greatly prefer Sid’s first count much more, this second one still seems quite probable.
It will be interesting to see which way things break in the PMs over the next few weeks. I do expect a counter-trend rally to start post-FOMC or at least by the beginning of next week .
Another point of view that fits with Sid’s count but with the difference
that we are actually in an ending diagolnal … sound’s familiar !
I know that Jay Taylor interviewd that guy few weeks ago.
http://www.safehaven.com/article/38394/gold-and-mining-stocks-bottom-is-imminent
Great point Gabriel. Good ole Robert McHugh. Nice!
Maybe all this depends on what Janet will do this week …
Remember she has been practicing all her life for what comes next…
http://www.jsmineset.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/clip_image001.gif
Very nice coverage of a world class mining exploration company called Equitas. Kyler Hardy summed up the Garland property. Further DD presents a stellar picture with the new VTEM and World class Geo’s inculding Alan King. EQT just might have found Voisey Bay’s Grand parents and extended family.
This is worthwhile in my opinion:
(Ross Clark & Bob Hoye)
http://talkdigitalnetwork.com/2015/09/this-week-in-money-16/
thanks for posting the audio.
They have been making some big inroads into geothermal technology,(particularly in the drilling techniques that hindered cost) wind and solar have limitations that geothermal does not. The future will be increasingly with steam turbines, geothermal gets little attention and government money but that is turning around.
They have been messing with geothermal since the 70’s or before……as long as oil is the agenda., nothing is going to change. There is simply to much money in oil, and the world wide agenda is not geothermal or solar. The worldwide , politicians can not grease their palms with either solar or geothermal power. ………
Ain’t that the truth
That’s the sad state of political influence from big oil in the energy sector at present FFM.
I am wondering that there is no discussion about the crisis in Syria and Ukraine here. Germany expects 40.000 refugees this weekend. The US will take 10.000 in 2016. On the same time Russia is planning to move their army into Syria.
RT reported that Russia took a million refugees from Ukraine, I guess they have been integrated into society. They have the option of Russian citizenship or returning to Ukraine as they want.
Russia could absorb all refugees from the middle east and N Africa.
Europe crys about taking refugees and Canada for example talks of taking 25k. That’s talk right now.
The Russians put us to shame, too bad they are the bad guys.
The Russians have been in Syria for years, they sell military equipment to Syria.
The west is crying the same crap we did with Crimea, saying it was an invasion when in fact Russians were posted there before the ussr broke up.
Russia actually was paying rent to Ukraine for Crimean bases.
Putin has stated they intend to defend their interests in Syria.
I believe Iran put troops in Syria awhile back as well.
Russian army into Syria?
Steal at the bottom, fence at the top?
Maybe a movie?
Gone mainstream…..a story about a 2 kilometer long underground tunnel in a remote area of Poland that has been lost since the Second world War and contains an entire hidden train with a massive cargo of 300 tonnes of gold and weapons looted from Eastern European states and cities.
But is that even possible? And how come it has never been found until now?
Well, knowing how the armed forces of Germany WWII behaved during those times of extreme conflict and how troops were known to have killed every local and all potential witnesses when they commit certain crimes then yes,….. it is indeed possible that a whole train could be driven into an underground concrete bunker and made to disappear from history.
And so it was done only to be discovered these past months after a tip-off from one of the soldiers who was there that day and was involved in hiding the evidence 70 plus years ago..
But it was Booby trapped of course.
It did after all (reportedly) have as its final cargo many tonnes of gold, diamonds, precious stones, rare artworks and the remains of the slave labourers who built the tunnels in those dark days at the end of the war.
But do you believe it?
Well, we will know soon enough as Polish authorities are now set to open up the discovery in the coming weeks and months. After the booby traps have been rendered safe of course.
WWII tunnel found in search for Nazi gold train
http://www.cnbc.com/2015/09/09/wwii-tunnel-found-in-search-for-nazi-gold-train.html
read something on that about two weeks ago,……interesting……
Interesting story!
James Corbett – “the value of promoting this prophecy as a warning for the coming financial chaos.” (half hour)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tAji9t5mMQ
I’m sure the doomsters can come up with another date for total calamity, before sundown. Pitter-patter-let’s-get-at-‘er.
should have added the title:
Shemitah 2015 – Prophecy or Quackery?
Remember the Jews need a sign……….
We will know very soon!
Nice Irwin. Yes, blessings and the best to all those during Shemitah week.
Either the poop will hit the fan this week or it was just another Y2K. However, there is a record of big corrections in 2001 and 2008 that lend credence to the “7 year itch” concept. Cycles are interesting, and it is easy for people to get worked up and over-react around these dire predictions. I do expect a further pullback in September in the general markets…..so who knows……. 🙂
Shad: take a listen to Ross Clark – the link that Matthew put up.
No one ever mentions what happens AFTER the dreaded Shemiah; but Ross did.
Shemitah
Yes, I had listened to Ross Clark and the Bob Hoye interview earlier today. Good stuff.
Jeff Berwick is also a neat person, and I’ve followed his work at the The Dollar Vigilante for a while now. I’ve watched a number of videos with him all year, and I thought that one you just posted was fairly grounded and a nice post.
Thanks and we’ll see how the rest of September goes. There certainly is no lack of potential triggers to send the market into a tailspin economically, militarily, and cycle-wise.
My mail box, as I suspect is the case with most people here, has been cluttered with solicitations from scammers trying to make a buck off Shemitah fear. I recommend all those emails be relegated to “spam” and those accounts deleted.
Shemitah is nothing more than a 7-year cycle. It’s POSSIBLY a cycle which could be useful for those who are aware of it. If not aware – oh well, another cycle will roll along any day now.
The real cycle of interest is the Jubilee. Of course the fear mongers have it upside down. Jubilee is a time of renewal, a cleansing, something to look forward to. Not something to dread and not the end of the world.
In my effing opinion!
Right on Irwin. you got my vote. This month will come and go without the world ending. The CERN reactor (Hadron Collider) will not send us into another dimension as some predict. There is no meteorite with our name on it either….at least not this month according to the nice people at NASA.
Neither will US equity markets melt down to a radioactive puddle and destroy the universe as trillions of dollars of derivative bets go up in smoke and the core overheats in a smouldering heap of rubble. Because there is no precedent for that to happen. Hell, there is barely any bad news on the horizon which only leaves Black Swans (and how predictable are those).
Need I even mention that the news on the economy is actually pretty good lately?
I said this months back and it is a comment worth repeating. Anytime there are too many people on one side of a boat it only means that most of them will get wet.
Shmita’s, blood moons, forecasts of economic calamity by the whackjob pundits, the Pope’s visit to the Whitehouse to reportedly sign a pact with the devil…….just a crock of nonsense and none of it is meaningful to these markets in any way, shape or form.
It actually looks to me the markets will rebound, not crash. That the dollar will fall, not rise. That gold will continue its long process of withering rather than suddenly becoming the go-to asset for end-of-times salvation.
And Volatility is coming off the boil. How do we explain that in reference to the multitudes of sirens shrieking that the world economy is about to be cast into the rotten boiling pits of desperation and despair?
Hell, I am even getting hot to buy into emerging markets.
Oops, maybe the panic crowd got it wrong again…..as usual.
And meanwhile I really, really, really want to ask Greg Hunter to one-on-one request each and every one of his guests to retract most of the crazy predictions they have been repeating for the past few months. But I don’t have his email so that won’t happen. Not that I really care anyways.
Somebody has to take the losing side of the trade!
Thanks GREG!!!!!
I just listened to Hunter’s interview with Michael Pento – or I should say “half listened”. Can’t take much of that shite anymore.
Now they’re fixated on Yellen – again. Will she – won’t she? I don’t give a crap.
The best one can do , if it’s necessary to be in any markets at all, is be diversified. Sure, if a person is all in real estate, or all in PMs, or all in anything, he’s asking for trouble. Own a little of this and that – life goes on.
I think Pento said he’s 50% cash now. That makes sense to me. There might or might not be a crash coming, but without a doubt, there will always bargains somewhere.
I cannot take it anymore either Irwin. Some of the worst examples of those guys are so cocksure of themselves and yet they are CONSTANTLY wrong. None ever retracts or apologizes to the audience they crave so dearly either. They just drone on and on…..blah, blah, blah about the same negative, wretched stuff that only seems to be a reality inside their fantasy imaginations. God love them but since I banned most of them from my computer I really feel a whole lot better. More positive too. It’s why I am certain this recent decline in stocks is merely a long overdue correction. There is just nothing crashy about it at all and the future looks pretty good in the big picture. I am buying the S&P. Screw the Doomers!
Certainly highly commercialized!
++2
Germany introduces boarder controls inside the European Schengen room to get the situation under control.
Need controls for this situation!
Ive been following the story on RT for a couple of weeks.
I guess the “finders” get 10%.
A lot of artwork went missing, neat to see what they find.
Ever read People of the Book?
Good read!
This is a must-read for anyone still bullish the stock market:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/saxena/saxena091315.html
Just finished. I agree with Peru.
Time to get him back on our show!
Thanks Matthew!
Based on the last 8-10 years of publicly available info, I have to say that I would park money with Peru before someone like Puplava.
Agreed. Puru Saxena is ususally spot on, and has had a great track record and very little “fluff” in his articles for years. His market calls, and even his bearish tone on PMs the last few years have been the correct macro direction. The fact that he believes the markets have topped and entered a new Bear market is significant.
Thanks Matthew…good read….
The S&P 500 has managed a perfect back-test of broken fork support (green arrow). It looks like more declines are coming soon.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SPX&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=0&id=p61501389998&a=413005399
Armstrong is 100% right-on with his views on Marxism:
http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/37148
Can’t believe you got converted Matthew. 🙂
Was about time. 😉
Teaaaaaaaaaaaasing.
Hope all’s well.
LPG
😐
Selective agreement. It ain’t worth snot if you don’t go all-in.
Where is jj anyway?
He said he was going to a forum more focused on trading versus the buy and hold crowd. He was going to keep tabs on Avi and Rick A.
“Selective” agreement is common among those who think. Going all-in, in this context, is for the brainless or bird-brained.
Birds of a feather….jj..bird….
I bet A listener is …..Wondering why gators lay eggs…………. 🙂
just joking…………… go gators……………….
“If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their Fathers conquered…I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies… The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs.”
– Thomas Jefferson
“The first panacea for a mismanaged nation is inflation of the currency; the second is war. Both bring a temporary prosperity; both bring a permanent ruin. But both are the refuge of political and economic opportunists.” —Ernest Hemingway
“Whomsoever controls the volume of money in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce and when you realize that the entire system is very easily controlled, one way or another, by a few powerful men at the top, you will not have to be told how periods of inflation and depression originate.”
― James Garfield
Of course!
“the arithmetic makes it plain that inflation is a far more devastating tax than anything that has been enacted by our legislature. The inflation tax has a fantastic ability to simply consume capital. It makes no difference to a widow with her saving in a 5 percent passbook account whether she pays 100 percent income tax on her interest income during a period of zero inflation, or pays no income taxes during years of 5 percent inflation. Either way, she is ‘taxed’ in a manner that leave her no real income whatsoever. Any money she spends comes right out of capital. She would find outrageous a 120 percent income tax, but doesn’t seem to notice that 5 percent inflation is the economic equivalent.”
― Warren Buffett
bingo
“This [Federal Reserve Act] establishes the most gigantic trust on earth. When the President Woodrow Wilson signs this bill, the invisible government of the monetary power will be legalized….the worst legislative crime of the ages is perpetrated by this banking and currency bill.”
—Congressman Charles Lindbergh
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_August_Lindbergh#Famous_quotes
#1 chartsie
The bank act of 1935 was implemented 80 years ago September 17th. The treasury gave the federal reserve control of monetary policy. The fed used the confiscated gold to create capital using fractional reserve banking.
80 years ago this week.
Ya, were hooped, but we knew that.
What exactly does that mean?
Done like dinner, toast, kaputz, fubar. etc
Here’s a log scale look at SPX with two Schiff forks:
http://schrts.co/yzRlMr
If anyone here really wants to know why oil prices have hit bottom already and are merely waiting for a retest and confirmation of the price bottom then you only need to look at one single chart to give you confidence you have made the correct decision.
That chart is the production numbers out of OPEC.
So here it is in a snapshot. Aggregate production is about to hit a triple top and I think I can say with some degree of certainty it will be on the decline heading into the winter.
You don’t even need to bother reading the news to figure this out. And it is a waste of time putting too much weight in Goldmans recent suggestion that oil could fall as low as 20 dollars as a worst case scenario.
Actually, if anyone had bothered to read the Goldman statements carefully they would have seen that their actual predictions are for a range of prices between 38 and 42 dollars over the coming months.
That 20 dollar number is being taken out of context by almost everyone.
Anyway…..triple top on the production chart going back one decade. We are almost there now. Everything else is just hot air and noise. This also means the US dollar will decline and Euro rise. Ignore anyone who says the dollar is about to head to 1.20 or more because they know not of what they speak.
For those who are curious btw, Saudi Arabia accounts for almost one third of OPEC production and so that is the most likely place to see reductions in the barrels per day that are being pumped.
OPEC oil production chart — 10 years of data.
http://peakoilbarrel.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/OPEC-125.jpg
Hope so. Saudi Arabia increased production by 1.5 mbbl a day since mid last year. US has increased by more than a million as well till April. Now it is tapering off. I read articles that demand is still increasing at around one mbbl a day per year. If production goes down and wall street reverses the short, the price could go up. Canada is in reccession, Calgary is particular.
That chart does not show a triple top.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:triple_top_reversal
Triple top is jargon used here to convey an obvious point, not meant to meet a specific technical definition. Try to loosen up there buddy. It is highly unlikely that the current output numbers will exceed either of the two prior peaks. And that means oil prices have probably seen their lows as excess supply will soon start to recede.
It is amazing to me how I can put up a great chart that clarifies a point of contention in the market and yet all you can manage is a flimsy criticism. Are you ten years old or just an a$$?
Your BS is too much dude. I suggest you spend some time at the chart school link I provided to avoid further embarrassment when slinging “jargon” in the future.
Of course….ten years old AND an ass. I should have figured.
It is interesting that the Dow gapped down below its upper megaphone line:
http://1000gold.blogspot.co.uk/2015/09/dow-gaps-down-through-its-megaphone-top.html
Segment 7 with Glen, Jay and Doc is superb, especially with Jay’s mention of Dietrich Bonhoeffer and also Doc’s referral to Herbert Hoover’s memoirs. I think I heard Doc mention Hoover before recently and I took a look at his memoirs and found them very interesting.
Also, on Jay’s comment, Wikipedia says: “Dietrich Bonhoeffer was condemned to death on 8 April 1945 by SS judge Otto Thorbeck at a drumhead court-martial without witnesses, records of proceedings or a defense in Flossenbürg concentration camp”
Also:
“Apart from his theological writings, Bonhoeffer was known for his staunch resistance to the Nazi dictatorship, including vocal opposition to Hitler’s euthanasia program and genocidal persecution of the Jews.[2] He was arrested in April 1943 by the Gestapo and imprisoned at Tegel prison for one and a half years. Later he was transferred to a Nazi concentration camp.”
It was said of him “At the place of execution, he again said a short prayer and then climbed the few steps to the gallows, brave and composed. His death ensued after a few seconds. In the almost fifty years that I worked as a doctor, I have hardly ever seen a man die so entirely submissive to the will of God.”
Segment 8 is also very interesting.
There is a little hope (not much) here in the UK where the euthanasia campaign has been thoroughly put to bed in the last week. It’s interesting that in the immigration issue with the much increased vote for UKIP party in the UK at the election but their failure to get any decent number of MPs, the establishment has used the recent migrant children tragedies to propagandize the people into accepting more migrants in the face of the previous opposition. I think that the backlash when it comes will be even more severe. Politics in the UK is going to get very interesting before this Parliament is over.
PM Sector VERY LOW RISK TRADING SETUP at POSSIBLE SECTOR BOTTOM…
http://www.clivemaund.com/print.php?art_id=3565&PHPSESSID=7e85f652b40310bcfeb481d6f5108613
great update, thanks…………..appreciate…….
gold and general market are down at same time quite often lately. So the theory of two markets moving in opposite direction is denied.
No matter whether Fed will increase its interest rate this Thursday, gold will change its trend next week as the gold now already priced in the possible Fed rate increase.
If Fed does increase its interest rate, gold will have a relief rally. The rally may be a long term one as gold and Fed Fund interest rate historically have long term positive correlation.
If Fed does not increase the rate, gold price will also rally. The reason is simple: recent gold price drop is purely due to possible rate increase. If rate does not raise, gold will go back to where it was before the drop.
I agree and will go as far as saying that gold is bottoming (intermediate term, at least) whether rates are hiked or not.
Making a team Matthew ?
Sure, it’s about time. 🙂
That’s a hasty assumption in my opinion, Lawrence.
http://schrts.co/BgQ3o3
Even right now, SPY is down .25% and GDXJ is up 1.20%.
Markets are in a holding pattern ( for lack of better terms ) but the commodities complex should get a smack down here short term.
Mathew
Politicians care about getting elected and keeping the economy going. Why would they care about Gold?
Cities were built on the finacial system we have. Were we we wrong is way to much leverage and greed. Not perfect by a country mile but not bad for a bunch of Monkeys!
Mathew… after I launched I relized their screwed.
BTW Puru Saxena is a guy I give 2 thumbs up.
If the US market has another nose dive Id be grabbing some high yield qaulity stocks.
Im still not bullish in Gold.
On lol
I would say good luck with that crap shoot😬
IF Barrick gold is at a 26 low, that should tell someone something , like buy low…..
Oh I aggree with that logid that worked in 2000 perfectly. Today Im still not sure if we are ready to bounce? All markets in a funk gor now.
Eric Sprott pumped millions into Barkerville and it shot to a buck. Fortunately I dumped and never looked back. Now 20c. So much for gurus.
Nice show, guys!
The economy might turn down and the stockmarket collapse, but Obama has been allocating illegals to red states.
By this time it is highly proabable that the US is irrevocably Democratic.
Obama has stacked the deck!