Companies, Politics and the Overall Shape of the Markets
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Big Al, Cory Fleck and Chris Temple of The National Investor open the show.
- Segment 2: Chris Temple visits with Brian Skanderbeg, President and CEO of Claude Resources, about the company’s continuing great operating news and its status as one of the best recent performers of any Canadian-listed resource company.
- Segment 3-4: Michael Belkin of The Belkin Report chats about his new gold stock forecast newsletter, the overall shape of the markets as well as Greece completing its first IMF payment.
Hour 2:
- Segment 5: Richard Postma, AKA Doc and Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker chat about this week in the conventional markets and the oil.
- Segment 6: Rye Patch Gold is on the verge of production. President and CEO Bill Howald explains.
- Segment 7: Chris Temple visits with Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, on this week’s announcement by Se. Rand Paul (R-KY) that he’s throwing his hat in the 2016 presidential ring. In this segment, Chris and Glen focus on where Paul is likely to get his support…and opposition…from.
- Segment 8: Chris and Glen turn to fiscal policy, starting with Sen. Paul’s tax reform proposals and moving on to a discussion of the federal government’s disastrous fiscal picture.
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Bob,
What did you think of Glen’ s special editorial?
I thought it was an interesting theory about the amount of credit but personally I think that the oil price is simply geo-political.
Since the end of WW2 the US/UK have dominated the oil supply in the Middle East – any country that has stepped out of line has either been labelled a terrorist state, and sanctions hurled upon it, or has been invaded.
The US/UK could get away with that in the days of the Cold War but now, with China looking to expand economically and in global influence, the West simply can’t isolate oil states that fall out of line like we used to. So a new arrangement needs to be made.
Making peace with the Iranians seems to have finally got through the heads of the politicians and generals in Washington – you can’t keep calling countries evil ismply because they do not agree with the American way of doing things.
Likewise, there is a new regime in Tehran who probably realises that the Sunni nutjobs are more of a threat than those nasty imperialists in the UK and the US. Iran needs cash and it needs to get that by selling oil.
So I think a new Middle East accord is being ironed out currently – hence why the Saudis are panicking as they appear to be being left out of things. Heck, you can’t go on much longer saying you are friends of the West whilst funding mosques and Islamic schools around the world that preach that all non-muslims should be butchered and think that the penny is not going to eventually drop in Washington.
We – the US/UK – would rather have the Iranians sell their oil to us than to the Chinese. It keeps the Chinese out of any major influence in the Middle East. But that means that the oil supply is going to increase and that can only mean cheaper oil in the years to come. Unless, of course, Saudi throws a tantrum, implodes and becomes another failed state.
Now, wouldn’t that be ironic – if the fundamentalist monster comes back and bites the Saudis and Qataris on the ar*e!
Bob UK, well written I agree with a lot of what you say and think. DT
I regret that UK Bob must be ignorant of the amount of terrorism sponsored by Iran.
Certainly they had a complaint against the US for the Tyranny imposed on the Iranian people by the Shah, however the current Iranian leadership have broken all agreements they have ever made. They are hellbent on achieving nuclear power status. They have repeatedly threatened the US and Israel, and while this may be simply bombast for internal consumption; it also may not be.
No, I am not ignorant of what Iran has done and currently continues to do but, obviously, these things are now being negotiated as part of a major treaty. If successful it will redefine the Middle East for a generation.
Btw, from Iran’s perspective the US is a country that bombs women and children from the skies and invades countries willy nilly.
Try looking at things from a non-US perspective.
“We shall export our revolution to the whole world. Until the cry “There is no God but God” resounds over the whole world, there will be struggle”. — Ayatollah Khomeini, 1979
Bird, here’s another one:
“Either you are with us… or you’re with the terrorists”
George W. Bush
Ayatollah Khomeini is long dead Birdman.
America seems to hold grudges for decades – for long after the people who caused you angst are long dead and gone. Vietnam, Cuba and Iran are three good examples.
Iran has one of the youngest populations in the world – most of the people who were alive in 1979 are long dead. Ditto Vietnam. But once America decides that you are an enemy then enemy you will stay seemingly forver.
It is the foreign policy of the moronic and the bitter.
If you – and the UK as well – had not back so many evil dictators in these countries then the people would not have become so anti-American. The US foreign policy from 1945 up until, well, recently, was a tragedy for millions and millions of people in South East Asia, Africa, the Middle East and Central and South Americas.
Don’t get me wrong – Iran’s fundamentalism resulted in so many deaths in places like Lebanon, Israel and elsewhere. But you can’t help thinking that the West and Iran have been at loggerheads for decades for all the wrong reasons.
Ask yourself a question – in whose interest was it that Iran became a pariah state of the West?
Iran has sold every barrel of oil it produces. I think the supply will stay the same. The countries which buy Iran oil cheap now such as China and India will have to pay more if Iran has access to international market.
Iran’s oil infrastructure is falling to bits – they simply can’t produce as much as they could with modern kit.
Hence why I pointed out that the companies who get deals to upgrade Iran’s oil industry will be the shares to be buying IMPO.
Temple,
You touched on the 800 pound gorilla in the room with Glen downs. It’s true that the US can’t survive the next financial hit without a Marshal Plan style event to replenish the US with liquid funds. The country is broke.
The question is, are the law makers going to get it done and stop stalling it? ? If they wait until fall, our country looses too much ground to the rest of the world. The corporate bonds will bubble my fall and start the stock crash. They need to get the restructure do now to save the US!
Very interesting point, Chartster
Al,
In my opinion, the discussion between Temple and Glen Downs is the most important topic and important issue or event that the US and the world is facing. I hope we can drill down on this topic.
Good to know you are getting better ( ;
Any thanks Chartstet.
Slowly but surely,
Al
I do not believe the U.S. Congress knows what to do, even if they had the intent of doing anything.
Indeed only an international organization and fabricated money, such as SDRs, would have enough “money”.
You bring up a valid point about the ability of our govt, Professor
Yup, you can get your hands on a 100 year Mexican bond at 4%. Or you can pay the Swish to take your money for ten years. Is that hilarious or what? We live in bizarro world.
Bizarre is an understatement, Eddie.
Wow! Where can I buy those 100 year Mexican bonds yielding 4% ? Sounds too good to be true. What’s the catch?
You have to be stupid to buy them and, that is certainly not you.
Thanks, Al. I’m sure gold and silver will be a better bet for 100 years than Mexicali bonds.
Surely NEM will get back to 70 in 100 years!
Profile for Claude Resources Inc. (CRJ:CA)
$ 0.62 0.00 (0.00%) Volume: 149.46k 3:49 PM EDT Apr 10, 2015
Income Statements
Revenue (LTM) ($): 71.75m
Revenue per Share (LTM) ($): 0.38
Revenue per Employee (LTM) ($): 224,212.50
Revenue Growth 3 Yr: 3.33%
Revenue Growth 5 Yr: 10.90%
Dividends & Splits
Annual Dividend Rate ($): N/A
Annual Dividend Yield: N/A
Dividend Growth 3 Yr: N/A
Dividend Growth 5 Yr: N/A
Ex-Dividend Date: N/A
Payment Type: N/A
Stock Splits: N/A
Financial Strength (LTM)
Quick Ratio: 0.30
Current Ratio: 2.90
Long Term Debt to Total Capital: 0.12
Total Debt to Equity: 0.17
Interest Coverage: 2.60
Leverage Ratio: 1.40
Profitability (LTM)
Gross Margin: -3.80%
EBIT Margin: 10.20%
EBITDA Margin: 40.80%
Pre-Tax Profit Margin: -13.30%
Profit Margin (Cont. Op): 13.47%
Profit Margin (Total Op): 13.47%
Management Effectiveness LTM 5 Yr Avg
Return on Equity 3.61% -9.65%
Return on Capital 3.09% -6.52%
Return on Assets 2.61% -7.89%
Assets
Asset Turnover: 0.40
Inventory Turnover: 2.90
Receivable Turnover: 23.50
Valuation Measures
P/E Ratio: 31.00
P/E High – Last 5 Years: N/A
P/E Avg. High – Last 5 Years: N/A
P/E Low – Last 5 Years: N/A
P/E Avg. Low – Last 5 Years: N/A
Price to Sales: 1.63
Price to Book: 0.90
Price to Tangible Book: 0.90
Price to Cash Flow: 4.50
Price to Free Cash:
WOW ! ! ! !
Is this an example (for one company) of the level of detail for the 400 companies you track?
Brian, Yep.
@ Brian
It’s not statistical wizardry, Brian.
It’s a matter of finding the best sources.
As an example, the finviz site, the caveat being that they pre-dominantly (almost exclusively) cover only US markets, with a comparatively miniscule amount of extra-nationals (you”ll understand what I’m saying as you ”bop around” on their site).
For instance, if you wanted some data on AAPL (Apple):
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AAPL&ty=c&ta=1&p=d&b=1
Cheers
—LFP
My data puts Claude at somewhere around the 20th as being the best mining company out of some 400 I track.
I.e. 20th best.
I understood. May have had a stroke, but I am still ticking just fine. Thank God!
Sending good vibes your way, Big Al. Get well!
Wishing you a speedy recovery!
Re: Federal Reserve……I don’t think they know what they are going to do.
(It is, of course, debatable if they ever know what they are doing.)
Agreed cfs.. they’ve milked the cow… they’ve given it an overdose of steroids and continued to milk it.. they’ve fed it genetically modified food and have continued to milk every drop! Soon enough they’ll turn the milk cow into a beef one 😉
Actully CFS the banking system would have collapsed and there would have been chaos. If you were in charge what would you have done. They had no choice but to liquify the banking sector and pray in my view.
Probably Bill and perhaps heavy on the prayer!
Al Between a Rock and very hard place. Nothing’s perfect life goes on. You realize what matters in life l.,.Happy health!
Since you ask, I will answer.
I would not have forced the banks to underwrite zero-down loans as did Clinton. And I would have let the banks go bankrupt, for their irresponsible behavior.
Then, and only then I would have printed money to restart the economy.
However, no government can last perpetually spending more than they take in taxes. Marxist socialism has never worked for more than several decades. It will never work. Government never produces wealth; it simply redistributes wealth while taking its non-productive cut.
Have you ever seen a cow sucking from its own teat? It would not survive very long in that mode.
Now the government has wasted so much money primarily enriching the bankers, I doubt if there is sufficient good will left in the world to continue accepting US paper in exchange real goods for much longer. The US has survived thus far only because there is no other super-power yet to take over the role. We all know that Asia is in the ascendancy and that it is only a matter of time before the US becomes an also ran.
Great analogy about the cow!
Big Al
Good plan but you would have been hung I do believe. The banking sector going down as irresponsible as the are would have wiped out so many innocent people.
It was the way to go but Wall Street should have been destroyed no bailed out.
Wall Street is still corrupt to the core. Bill Black warned of the pending disaster and the FBI was notified but told to stand down buy the powers that be. There was your problem and I think could have been remedied far prior to the melt down. To much money was being made in real estate.
TBTF……should have failed , we would all be in better shape……..bar none., except the thieves in Washington.
Similar dat, albeit less useful for Rye Patch…..
Income Statements
Revenue (LTM) ($): 2.32m
Revenue per Share (LTM) ($): 0.02
Revenue per Employee (LTM) ($): N/A
Revenue Growth 3 Yr: N/A
Revenue Growth 5 Yr: N/A
Dividends & Splits
Annual Dividend Rate ($): N/A
Annual Dividend Yield: N/A
Dividend Growth 3 Yr: N/A
Dividend Growth 5 Yr: N/A
Ex-Dividend Date: N/A
Payment Type: N/A
Stock Splits: N/A
Financial Strength (LTM)
Quick Ratio: 3.30
Current Ratio: 18.70
Long Term Debt to Total Capital: N/A
Total Debt to Equity: 0.00
Interest Coverage: N/A
Leverage Ratio: 1.00
Profitability (LTM)
Gross Margin: -6.10%
EBIT Margin: -76.50%
EBITDA Margin: -75.80%
Pre-Tax Profit Margin: N/A
Profit Margin (Cont. Op): 0.20%
Profit Margin (Total Op): 0.20%
Management Effectiveness LTM 5 Yr Avg
Return on Equity -28.27% 9.47%
Return on Capital -31.51% -32.42%
Return on Assets -27.35% 6.47%
Assets
Asset Turnover: 0.20
Inventory Turnover: N/A
Receivable Turnover: 3.80
Valuation Measures
P/E Ratio: N/A
P/E High – Last 5 Years: N/A
P/E Avg. High – Last 5 Years: N/A
P/E Low – Last 5 Years: N/A
P/E Avg. Low – Last 5 Years: N/A
Price to Sales: 9.16
Price to Book: 1.92
Price to Tangible Book: 1.92
Price to Cash Flow: 1,572.30
Price to Free Cash: -20.20
In my opinion, a lot more potential from Rye patch.
Big AL, what is your key factor , for thinking Rye Patch is better. I do not own either, so, this is not a trick question. …(.and I am not looking for investment advice, so you will be clear on the legal side and if you do not want to answer that will be ok too.)…………..Thanks J.
Jerry,
Competant and addressive managers,
Well funded,
Promising aset, and
Great leverage at the current price
Just my opinion,
Big Al
Thanks Al…………..J
My pleasure.
Agreed. J…..The Long. Rye Patch would still be interesting if they had lost the legal battle with Coeur, because the management and assets are good. However, they did everything right, won the legal proceedings, and everything changed when they got the Net Smelter Royalty. Now, instead of diluting shareholders with financing the company, that is taken care of. Like Bill has mentioned, it is like their ATM for funding operations, exploration, permitting/land acquisitions, and now mine development.
I think having real income to actual fund real work (not just keeping the lights on) is what makes Rye Patch different. I was a fan and owned shares before the win with Coeur, and am absolutely amazed that the rest of the marketplace hasn’t taken notice yet. Fine with me as I am continuing to build my position.
As for the more potential with Rye Patch than Claude – it is in the nature of small Jr miners with attractive financials and good reserves to get taken over by a mid-tier or major. Obviously Coeur is the likely candidate. Claude is less likely to be taken over because they have set up shop and own that camp and theirs is much more remote. It is also a fantastic story, and I was a fan and share holder far before this turnaround because I believed in the team and the asset. Having said that, I think Claude is more stable with high growth potential, but Rye Patch is either going to hit a bonanza grade discover on one of the previous mines, or build their own mine, or get taken out.
Both are great companies, both have room to run significantly higher, but I expect a bigger percentage increase from Rye Patch over Claude in the next few years. Basically, I am happy to invest in both.
I agree with you, Big Al. That’d why I own shares.
However, potential is a forward-looking statement and we all know about those!
CRJ.TO long term monthly chart:
If I read your chart correctly, Claude was a US$ 3.00 stock back in the April, 1998 when gold was US$ 300? Now THAT is perspective.
Somewhere around there, Brian. Maybe not quite that high.
$3.45 was the high in March, 1996.
I assume that you are referring to CRJ. Am I correct?
Many large cap stocks did nothing in the bull market. The cost of producing increased with other inflating commodities killing their margins. Where the money was made was a so out of favor market that got recogition and bid up along with good discoveries. Management was KEY too. At the end of the day it’s a gamblers market. Now that so many were CRUSHED “in the bear market there is no interest in participants coming back to a market that can destroy you. In most cases you can and will lose some or all of your capital by holding on to long. When gold pumping turkeys say “you can buy $1s for .60c” that is absolutely hog wash. What you are buying is shares Which are a cash burning like liability.
You better talk to the management and see how they will do IF gold decides to go down to support at around $900. The leverage is far greater to the down than the up. I don’t know of an industry that you can be wiped out in a correcting or a bear market. Carefull out there. I prefer to bit shares in a bull market. This is not.
I’m thinking that something very similar to the 1930’s era , where the $US will be devalued against gold will occur. The market might take care of it by itself, for example were gold prices to become a very low volatility asset, where a great deal of trade in the asset occurs, but very little price change. Should that come about, then any producing gold mining asset would be the thing to own. The time for exploration highs would have been at the peak of the Nasdaq.
1997 and the Bre-X scandal wiped out the gold mining sector, though some stocks recovered and blew off with the Nasdaq bubble.
WDO.TO
The HUI index of large cap gold miners went up 1,735% from the 2000 low to the 2011 high. How did you find large caps that did nothing?
Did you buy the index or the companies? The performance of gold companies VS tech or Bio Bulls was pathetic if you want a comparison. They did well but not near what one would have thought would be the leverage of gold price plus in the ground reserves.
Terrible actually. Tech companies went super Nova prior 2000. 50-100 times and all you need was skate board. No bubble here.
Brian, that’s evidence that it is the REAL price of gold that matters not the nominal price.
I could be wrong, but if my memory is correct, Claude got side-tracked for a while into energy production instead of concentrating solely on Gold mining.
I would not call it seriously sidetracked as it provided some interesting cash flow.
Big Al
I agree, again, Big Al. That sale of those assets for $11 mil back in 2008/9 provided cash at a difficult time.
It was a good move by Bill.
Yes Brian, I remember first looking at Claude in 2010-2011 when it was much higher, and then I lost interest. It was really Matthew in 2012/2013 that got me interested again based on his posts, and I liked watching many of the improvements they’ve been working on for years (as mentioned in this weekend show). It was the fast-tracking from 2011 & 2012 work on the Santoy Gap, and the new discoveries at Seabee deposit that allowed for the higher grades and “turnaround” that the marketplace acts like it just happened.
Based on how high the price was then, how much better the grade is now, how much more contained the cost structure is, and how profitable they are now, then there should be a nice jump in the share price once gold prices inevitably rise in the years to come.
How can they advise to back up the truck in gold stocks when the worst period of the year is just ahead. There should be a strong rally from August back to over 1200 after the summer bottom which could around 1050. It will just be another short term trade.
Oil, gold, silver will find a bottom over the summer/fall. Personally, I am staying on the sidelines this time around. There are better opportunities out there that will at least allow you to sleep at night.
I agree, Chris,
AL
The so-called summer doldrums are hyped way too much. Unless you’re a pro, trying to benefit from it might work about 30 or 40% of the time. Also, way too many people are sure that their neat plan for gold bottoming in the summer is a done deal. Last year, people were also counting their eggs before they hatched as they bet heavily on the usual fall rally -and look what happened.
I believe that we could be on the verge of a move like the one we had in 2003:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$HUI&p=W&st=2003-04-11&en=2003-12-12&id=p78706440444
Matthew, you could be right, or you could be wrong. I don’t think we can look at gold’s past performance in order to determine where it’s headed in the future. Obviously, in the early part of the 21st century the Fed was starting to get more aggressive when it came to their involvement in the market and the economy in general…and gold was reacting to that situation. Then we had QE’s, and gold went parabolic. Now, the Fed has thrown everything and the kitchen sink and they haven’t remedied the situation (at least it seems like it)… and I believe it’s the reason why gold has stalled. Market participants/movers are confused as to whether the Fed has everything under control or not. So what do they do? They chase the main indices because the gains are there. Will gold and silver shine again? I have no idea; difficult to tell. That being said, there is still money to be made in the precious metals sector, but you have to be very active and take your profits when you have them. For those who are long and underwater this is one huge nightmare that doesn’t want to end. I hope they can recoup their main investment, at least.
Yes, I could obviously be wrong, but I am not basing my view on what gold did in 2003. I am simply using 2003 as an example to show what I think could happen now.
I disagree with the view that gold was just reacting to the Fed in those early years; at least directly. In my opinion, the main drivers were the obvious secular tops in stocks; an economy rolling over, and the valuations presented by a long secular bear in gold.
Remember that gold quadrupled before there was ANY QE. Gold stalled mostly because it was time for it to stall, not because anything changed fundamentally. The Dow had collapsed by nearly 90% vs gold in ten years and the entire gold space was extremely overbought even on the monthly charts. In addition, stocks were putting in a bottom while gold was putting in a huge top. Why wouldn’t we expect a counterend move as people sold what was high and bought what was low?
The secular bear in stocks is going to resume and the the secular bull in gold is also going to resume. There was absolutely no secular top in gold.
Matthew, the possibility of a counter move is there, not going to disagree with that. Or we can see everything tank (markets, precious metals, oil) and stay there for decades until the economy gets back to running normally. The problem today is that we are living in a deviation from the common rule. Nirp, zirp, emergency rates for an extended period is not something we had seen before. Add free trade agreements, offshoring, automation, etc and it makes a bad situation even worse. I am beginning to believe the extraordinary we saw after WW2 was one big fluke. We got lucky, it’s all. People can disagree with that assessment but it’s beginning to look like that.
*extraordinary growth.
-Chris, I’m not at all worried about everything tanking and gold staying down for decades.
-What is the common rule? There have been countless massive distortions in markets throughout history.
-Technological advancements since WWII have been incredible and therefore, so have real increases in living standards. Of course, inflation has also been incredible so that growth has been way overstated. Since everything is cyclical, periods of growth always give way to periods of contraction and past gains will increasingly be transferred from weak hands to strong hands.
No fluke Chris. It was all demographics and the beginning of a new credit cycle. We are now near the end of that tremendous growth period. Credit markets are mature to over-ripe and so is the median age of the population.
Everything is cyclical? Ahh, I see even Matthew has now taken a page from Armstrong’s book and joined cycle theory. Welcome to the club. But you are a little too late to take any credit for yourself.
Matthew, yes, technological advancements have been great, but we have also paid the price. I wonder if there is a study out there that shows how many people lose their jobs each year due to automation. That is what I worry about. Just look at farming for example. My question is, what to you do with all these people who don’t have jobs? Not everyone can be a doctor, engineer, etc.
Birdman, it’s is interesting you say that we are now at the end of that tremendous growth period. I always believed that that natural, organic growth period ended in the late-60s. Since the 70s whatever growth we’ve had was due to the massive debt the government and people took on. I am not as adept on this subject as you are, so I wouldn’t mind reading your assessment.
A lot will depend on what we call growth, Chris. And no doubt there is going to be a lot of disagreement on this site about what growth really means. But when we look at consumption numbers for example we can see where the peak earning years of the baby boomers were some of the best (with a lag built in the numbers of course). On the other hand if we were to talk of real income growth net of inflation its another story. Same goes for the types of jobs created in the economy as we shifted from manufacturing to services. That’s what I mean when I say these topics are subject to a lot of debate and disagreement at times. What I was mainly referring to in my post above though was the peak earning years of the largest demographic segment of our society (boomers) and how that has coincided with very low interest rates (pension withering effects) and the large numbers of retirements now underway versus peak credit and falling consumption. Sorry if I did not explain any of that in detail in my post. I often assume nobody here has any interest in these topic anymore. But it is a breathe of fresh air when someone like yourself is honestly interested in the subject.
Thanks, Birdman. We have the demographic to counterbalance the boomer demographic, but, as you know, the younger generations have more obstacles in their way i.e. huge student debts, working dead-end part-time jobs (mostly because of Obamacare), higher living costs, etc. One of the problems is that the younger generations cannot pick up the ball in order to move it further down the field because of the aforementioned obstacles standing on their way. One more question: Do you see the US government cutting pensions? They are going to have a hard time honouring them when a good % of the working population is out of work or working part-time.
Good points Chris and Bird.
Your absolutely right Chris, the younger generation has big debt to deal with.
Personally I think that’s going to be a real hindrance.
Give it a rest, Bird. I knew that everything is cyclical way before I had even heard of Martin. But let’s say I did learn it all from Armstrong; that would mean that I still knew it many years before you. What a complete fool you are.
Btw, in real terms, that “tremendous growth period” ended in 1999, and we partied like it. Apparently you missed it.
Today, one would never guess that BB used to see through his Bird.
On September 8, 2013 at 10:23 am,
Benb says:
Bird, you make my point about not understanding the federal reserve.
Your statment is the perfect example of complete……shall we say “befuddlement?”.
On September 8, 2013 at 10:27 am,
Benb says:
It occurs to me Bird you are mearly seeing what kind of rise you can get out of whom.
Kinda funny actualy.
Ancient posts out of context yet again Mathew.
When you gonna give that up?
The relentless attacks from you and your “gang” are really rather tedious too actually.
This was an observation not an attack. Yes, it was out of whatever context you’re referring to.
If possible, note that your boy started in again today, not me.
Mathew, you goaded Bird 5 times before he even posted once, Bird said you cant take credit for cycle theory, you then called Bird a fool and continue to goad.
Its just plain obvious, wish you guys would stop. Its destructive, lowers the quality of the site. Especially when the attacks are directed at valuable contributors.
Even if you don’t find Birds contributions valuable, I and others do.
Its not that I think you don’t know what your talking about, its the way view things and trade doesn’t really apply to me, my style of trading.
So I don’t really follow your stuff, but I do see the attacks.
Don’t worry bb, he apparently does not see that he points an accusing finger directly at himself when he does that. Its pretty embarrassing for him actually. Kind of weird too. As if he thinks he is only talking to me and nobody else reads these threads and notices how ridiculous and combative it is.
BB, I already knew that you weren’t too bright, but the fact that you are dead wrong is still a little surprising. I did zero “goading” before Bird started in again. Just look at the time stamps yesterday. As far as starting this whirlwind of Bird’s sh*t earlier this week, Bird is 100% at fault. Get your facts straight for ONCE. While your at it, learn how to spell “honestly” it’s not “honustly” as you’ve been writing for six decades.
One more thing, consider standing on sound principles for a change instead of excusing Bird’s attacks just because you like other things he says. If everyone would lead by example AND let him know that his ways aren’t welcome, he would stop. Guys like him have to be forced to behave in a civilized way. Reasoning with him will never work, but peer pressure can.
By not speaking out, the people here have spoken and will end up with the site they deserve.
COUNT ME IN FOR A BETTER TOMARROW……..
It all starts now. Both of you can participate. Lead or follow as you choose.
ditto
True Mathew, but it was kinda funny.
You think so? If I had said it you would’ve called it childish (and you would’ve been right, for a change).
No offence Mathew, it was just funny, Bird does actually have a good sense of humour, you guys just repeatedly miss it as you take comments personally etc. imo
Anyway, I doubt it really matters anymore, this blogs days are numbered now due to the bickering.
imo, that has been HH intention all along.
If you recall, I honestly thought he was off his meds, then Bird and J posted the article exposeing the intention, and sure enough.
Ive heard about it, first time Ive seen it tho, altho I have seen other economic blogs die from bickering, I never realised it was intentional from some posters.
But hey, the site was good before the blog, Al just didn’t realise that posting requires moderation. Was a good idea tho, at least I thought it was at the time.
We now realize that we have to moderate and we hsve started ad you probably can tell.
Thank You again Al.!!!
I have the greatest respect for that decision made by you and the team. Once people here get the message that obnoxious, personal, derogatory and insulting posts are not welcome anymore they will get back on track.
But you will have to stick to your guns and deep-six anything off-topic and personal.
You know, Rick went through this on his site the past year. There were a few who posted regularly on his site with rude, inflammatory, racist, hostile and inappropriate off-topic comments. He was really reluctant to stifle free speech so he put them on notice with plenty of warnings.
That seemed to go on for more than a year before he finally lost his patience. When they failed to cooperate he just axed them permanently based on IP’s and they no longer post at all (good move Rick!).
anyway, It was obviously a tough call for him to bring discipline to his site and it cost quite a bit of traffic in the process of eliminating trouble makers. But you know what? The site is slowly rebuilding with newcomers and the dialogue has improved substantially.
Rick’s basic rule is you need to stay on the topic he presents and not veer off in creating arguments and straw men nor hassle the host and others who frequent the site. Break the rules too many times and its bye bye.
I don’t think that is anti- free speech at all. It is just establishing reasonable boundaries to promote the conditions for civil discourse and create an environment that is not threatening to newcomers.
Thanks Bird. Just common sense and respect for others.
That is a good chart from 2003 and definitely think that is how 2016 will look, but I am not convinced that is how 2015 will look.
The biggest reasons I see pressure in Gold in the May/June area is the 1st quarter earnings in miners, the rising dollar (due to falling Euro/Yen/other currencies), and yes a little seasonality. There is no way to know until we get there, but I think there are a fair number of investors waiting to retest the Nov lows.
There could me a market surprise where that doesn’t happen and Gold takes off in late April & May & June & July, but I don’t see what the drivers for all that interest would be at this point in time. What is going to get the retail investors, hedge funds, and mainstream investors back into the space in the next 2 months?
It is too late to be shorting tech stocks as advised as the seasonal period ended at the end of December. They are likely to get stronger for a couple of months at least. I sold my intel, cisco, hp and msft last week with small gains as they just seemed to be dead for a while even though they tech usually perform well from April to December. I bough back my XOP position as oil may start a new bull market soon once it holds above 54 or 55.
If you are referring to the comment by Mike Belkin, i would have to agree with him.
Paul……….You might want to listen to Steve L.,that Glen Downs just interviewed yesterday……..this would be concerning the “new bull market”. Not saying you are wrong, but ,give a listen to, if you do not mind, and give us your opinion. Thanks, respectfully………………..j
Happy Easter Al. Good to have you back on the KER!
I agree with everything that Michael Belkin had to say.
Sounds like a turning point to me.
comments is for Seg.3
Well Michael just recently got out of the dollar and he stated he believes it is close to topping. He added furthermore that the dollar trade is far too crowded. That essentially mirrors my own calls that I have frequently publicized here on this site since just shortly before the USD peaked.
So if you are agreeing with Michael then by deafult you are also agreeing with me.
How is that for a novelty this Saturday afternoon!
And I held UUP puts when the dollar plunged below 95 on 3/18, so I think you are agreeing with me, by default, of course.
Where do the injured vets get their disability funds, does it come from social security or from The Department Of Veteran’s Affairs. Just curious?
GE Capital ready to dump some investments………from $300plus Billion to $90billion, see zero hedge…..today.
Clive M…….also thinks the Dollar is rolling over……..April 8(?)
Katy perry posted a picture of her new 18 carat gold watch. Pretty sure that will do more for gold demand then anything else discussed here in last couple years.
Apple watch of course
Problem will be for some folks popping for $10k…….the Chinese will introduce some FAKE watches for the sheeple.
What happens when the technology changes in 90days……
It equals more gold consumption.
good one Peter
segment 8 speaks about lack of money in hiway trust fund. I propose a 12 cent per gallon increase in fed gas excise tax.. 10 cents for hiway fund and 2 cents for direct application to social security trust fund. Not pleasant to pay more taxes , but this is a real long term fix. S
Why not simply divert money taken by the Federal Reserve to such productive uses? Taxes paid to the Fed go straight into the Fed’s pockets.
Federal Reserve Banks are not operated for a profit, and each year they return to the U.S. Treasury all earnings in excess of Federal Reserve operating and other expenses. So what you just wrote is pure fallacy and the regurgitation of popular ideas amongst the conspiracy set on gold websites. No doubt you got all your education from Mike Maloney.
Got a degree with that?
Here we go again. We start a new day and Birdman is, as usual, the first to get nasty and personal. Why can’t he simply say that he disagrees and then explain why? How about a little evidence to support his assertions.
You posted false and misleading statements. Back them up or go home.
Just what ate. Those comments, bird?
Yes Bird……clean up your act……..this is a new day …..start fresh….man give it up.
BEE = NICE…………..
Clean up your own act. You can start by not adding pointless comments to a conversation that does not involve you. The comments are directed to Matthew. Let him explain the falsehoods to the readers here.
this site involves me and everyone else……..they are tired of the BS……
PS: You will no doubt have notice that Matthew has not responded. He was caught in a barefaced lie.
TRYING to belittle someone only shows your ignorance in trying to resolve an issue.
Sorry Jerry. The problem is not mine. Lying on this site is not acceptable. I merely call Matthew to account for his disinformation campaign. But let me ask you a question…..do you think lying is OK?
That is a serious question. Please answer it before you criticize me again.
Lying is a problem….. Everyone makes mistakes, and everyone errors., one must own up to the mistake in order that trust is established, and respect gained,once lost it is hard to retrieve.
Indeed I agree Jerry. Thank you for the honest response.
Big Al says: “Just what ate. Those comments, bird?”
————
Sorry Al, but what does that mean? When you wrote ate did you mean hate?
“ate” should be “are”
Sorry
Interest on national debt for 2014: $430,812,121,372.05
I can’t remember where I came across it, but it was stated that the individual income tax is a little over 40% of the $1T in Federal income taxes collected. Whatever the fact is in this case, my point is that too much is being taken as it is; why would anyone in their right mind ask for more taxes?
My question to you, BM, remains valid; why is it impossible for you to act like anything other than an animal? I know it’s difficult for a collectivist, but can’t you try?
Peter Grace told President Reagan that “one-third” of the tax dollars collected are wasted and another third not collected. “With two-thirds of everyone’s personal income taxes wasted or not collected, 100 percent of what is collected is absorbed solely by interest on the Federal debt and by Federal Government contributions to transfer payments. In other words, all individual income tax revenues are gone before one nickel is spent on the services which taxpayers expect from their Government.”
http://truthintaxation.us/?tax_inform=whereTaxesGo
No Matthew, that was not your point. Here, let me refresh your memory since you can’t be bothered to read what you write! You stated:
“Why not simply divert money taken by the Federal Reserve to such productive uses? Taxes paid to the Fed go straight into the Fed’s pockets”. — Matthew
———————————-
That statement is categorically false. I said prove it. So far you have not done anything other than pull up a feeble Google search that is not even valid according to the people writing it.
OK….so lets assume that you made a mistake instead. In that case I will grant that you did not lie but will instead conclude you are incredibly ignorant about how the Federal Reserve system and taxation actually function.
Kind of a surprise since you imagine yourself such a well informed person. I really encourage you to brush up on your knowledge before leaving uninformed posts. Also, try to avoid Mike Maloney videos if that is your primary source of information!
seg 4…..Utilities spot on………….
Greek leave EU………NATO to falls apart……says Craig P. Roberts…………kwn today
Please God is all I can say J. Destroy NATO and the U.S. gets isolated.
SOUNDS good to me………
Just curious Andrew, but why would you want to destroy Nato?
Bird….If you read the report at KWN…that Craig P Roberts wrote……You would not be asking that question.
Why not link that report Jerry and I will read it and get back to you with my thoughts. By the way, what did you think of segment 8 and Senator Paul’s tax reform ideas?
Bird……..I would respectfully submit the link, but, I have never pasted a link.(for various reasons) sorry. If you do listen to Roberts, I would be more than glad to hear what you have to say………j
Concerning SEG 8….I have not listen to Paul yet.
oh, my son did help me one or two times paste a picture of an owl for the COINLAND REPORT while in Florida, just for the record.
Bird, the issue with nato, some believe it is merely an extension of the U.S. military.
no nato, more peace.
Long story short.
bb……..bird should read it for himself……
Nato is run by international banksters, gangsters and other criminals and they are playing a very dangerous game.
Thanks bb. I am waiting to hear from Andrew on this since he wrote that comment. So far, no response. I think he has gone into hiding again.
Bird……..you are under my space, and we are talking about..KWN AND ROBERT’S article concerning NATO.
Great Stockman interview from last week and the theft our rulers are perpetrating. He is not Avi Gilbert bullish! 🙂
Cath. Austin Fitts……says a slow burn.., that is what I am hearing from Stockman.
If I am understanding Stockman correctly, he says we are in the relatively earlier stage of a massive deflation and that the central banks and gummits can’t keep the dead patient alive with more heroine injections, so to speak. He says there is massive oversupply due to massive malinvestment. He says we are not going to get a hyper-inflation. Stocks are going in the crapper and staying there until the massive oversupply burns itself out. He says the place to be is cash and gold.
I think you have that correct.
I tell ya Jerry, this economy has me buffaloed…and spooked. I am cutting back. Most people would even call me niggardly….well, they wouldn’t because most people don’t know what that word means and prolly think it’s racist! But you get the picture, I think. And after all, why wouldn’t I be niggardly…as I am quite concerned for my prospects.
I think that we all are, Eddie,
Big Al
Ebolan…..everyone should be spooked, this is not going to be normal going forward.
The Greek situation should be a heads up look at what can happen with to much debt.
As for Americans, Europeans, Canadians all in debt up to their eyeballs the outlook is grim at best, concerning financial matters.
Btw……I had two years of Afro American history in college, so I am familiar with the word and the context in which you are referring……and I would tend to agree with you concerning the meaning in which you are applying the word……SO, I do not think you are a racist by that meaning and terminology as applied to the 60 and 70’s time frame.
I know Belkin is very bright but it seems to me the last time he was on in February? he was all over gold stocks doing so well…and look what happened…they collapsed weeks later like a few weeks.
Thanks Fransix.
He was talking big picture then and big picture now from what I can tell. Like he said, long term = one year.
It’s good to see that I’m not the only one dismissing Bird’s bearish H&S pattern:
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2015apr9gold/2015apr9gold.html
NICE….Lo^oking good.
Thanks Matthew…good chart and explanation…
Just for a change of pace I thought I might go back a year in time and see what we were all discussing back in March of 2014. And what I came across was pretty interesting to me and I think a big feather in the cap of Doc who got behind the idea that buying shares on the Shanghai was about to become a really great idea.
Indeed, just four short months after this interview we saw Chinese stock markets take off for the stratosphere and not look back as the averages literally doubled in the months that followed. That leads us today of course where we now see those same markets teetering near the precipice of an obvious bubble and parabolic rise that is about to burst.
Exactly when that bubble bursts happens is anyone’s guess.
Upon closer examination the Shanghai appears to be in a final wave-up but as you all know those are hard to predict for termination points. Typically the final waves last longer than most expect. And decidedly, they blow an artery and implode when everyone least expects it.
We do however know that leverage in China is now at unprecedented levels. Some say it is most similar to what was seen in the US just prior to 1929 before the investment craze there led to a global market bust and brought on the Great Depression.
I wonder if we should worry as the equivalent of Chinese shoe-shine boys, housewives and the poorly informed bid up stocks heavily and bet everything including the kitchen sink (on red) in pursuit of the big payoff so many have been enjoying these past nine months.
Maybe the question we really need to ask though is if the sound of an equity bubble popping over there will not in fact be the starting gun that signals the stock price collapse many predict on Western shores. I have no idea really but we do know that too many equities routs have begun in Asia in recent times.
We need to be on guard and watch for that moment the Asian crowd tries to exit at once.
Anyway, had you taken Doc’s advice back then you would have done very, very well indeed. Some of you here might enjoy this show from March 12, 2014. The comments are just as entertaining as always!….I got a few good ones in there myself including a great call on a gold decline that came just days after I made it.
110 dollar drop….pretty much right on target. Don’t tell my detractors and critics though. It will drive them absolutely apoplectic and send them over the edge!
The Doctor Is In – Wed 12 Mar, 2014 — Comments on the Shanghai Exchange
http://www.kereport.com/2014/03/12/doc-net-seller-buyer-precious-metals-stocks-comments-shanghai-birdman/#comments
I like the OWL COINLAND REPORT ….comments myself………….lol
Then there’s this funny but not surprising bit; Birdman was against Martin Armstrong before he was for him. What changed? Hint: It wasn’t Armstrong. Birdman even thought that Martin was stealing his material! Funny stuff. Enjoy.
On September 8, 2013 at 4:42 am,
Bird Man says:
Anyone here ever read Martin Armstrong. Wow. Is that guy ever the poster boy for sour grapes or what. His posts are full of venom from beginning to end. Probably just as well that most of what he writes makes no damn sense and is full of spelling and syntax errors. I get the drift though. He really hates government……..a lot.
On September 8, 2013 at 1:21 pm,
Bird Man says:
He is using my material, Matty boy. Maybe that’s why I am bugged. That was me who wrote that US pensions and 401k’s would be confiscated if push came to shove. I said it right here on this site before the idea even perked in anybody elses head. It is so obvious anybody can see it coming. Problem is that nobody believes it is possible even when confronted with the information that total pensions (savings) in the US are roughly equal to the 16 plus trillion dollar debt of the government. The ultimate “out” if trouble really hits the fan is that real money and real savings in all their pension forms are almost perfectly sufficient to extinguish the national debt. Does that not tell you what the future holds? Look at what just happened in Poland. They took all the bonds and put them under government control for the good of the country. They left the equity portion alone for the moment though. That is the escape clause for people with real money but it won’t be a loophole forever. So I am just bugged that Martin uses my material without giving credit. That’s all. The rest of your insulting comment is going to be ignored, Matthew.
GOSH…….I see you do not like Martin’s spelling error……..I must be in good company….lol
oh,,,,sorry error to errors
SOMEONE once told me ,,, a person who makes spelling errors is forward thinking, and stops looking backwards at all the mistakes in life…………lol
As I once told a boss of mine, “I make so many mistakes whenever anyone else makes one I get a royalty.” He was not amused.
I make a lot of typos but no one seems to notice or if they do care…or maybe they’re not even reading what I typed!
Some of us read them all, Eddie.
Big Al
I read your posts Ebolan, don’t care about the errors.
They bug Bird tho -;)
Darn smiley faces 😉
Thanks Jerry, I’ll use that excuse.
which one?
Don’t worry, Jerry. Al is a very forgiving person. Heck, my spell checker changed his name to Korloon and I had typos of his name as Korline and he did forgive these mistakes.
Are you sure, Eddie?
Big Al
E….my post was under the bird, and some how got scrambled ….but, you are correct that Al is a forgiving person.
We are all in good company, Jerry!
Well spoken, and astute comment by the GREAT OWL…..
Are you referring to my comment about we are all in good company?
Big Al or should I say Big OWL
This comment is an answer to a question from Bird.
A number of us read the pending comments.
Regarding knocking one of yours off, I am not sure which one you are referring to.
Big Al
Sure thing Al. I left a post objecting to Matthew quoting me on Martin Armstrong (for the fifth time). He keeps bringing up the same posts from the past. I thought it was bizarre since he knows I have changed my stance considerably during the past year on what Martin writes. The quotes he copies and pastes are almost two years old!!
Kind of inappropriate and out of context I think. But you know, I actually get it. Matthew is enraged by jealousy. He just could not bring himself to say “Good call, Doc” on my post about Doc and the Shanghai.
Instead he attacked me. What a really F***ed up guy he is that he could not congratulate Doc..
Another one of Tweety’s tweets, ” Matthew is enraged by jealousy.” Have you been watching The Twilight Zone.
Absolutely enraged. Envious too. It is a terrible combination. I posted a commentary about Doc and he immediately tried to sabotage any chance of a normal dialogue by posting two year old comments I had written about Armstrong.
Talk about grasping for thin reeds to discredit my post and Doc’s calls. Pathetic really.
As an aside Dick, you have not commented on the show. Surely you have a few thoughts(?). My wife is utterly amazed that grown men on this site obsess over me in their daily commentaries. To be honest, I get a kick out of it too. She reads all the threads lately and thinks its queer.
You’re obsessed with yourself, it’s pretty obvious!
Move on Dick….it’s time to move on. With you and Andrew every single last post you leave is only about me lately. Do you really enjoy coming here to take petty little pointless potshots daily?
Remember Al and Cory? Remember the show? Come on man…this is embarrassing now (for you).
LOL!
Cracks up my wife (she thinks you guys are gay).
You lasted a whole 14 minutes, Birdman. Something is very wrong with your supporters.
On April 12, 2015 at 10:55 am,
Birdman says:
It all starts now. Both of you can participate. Lead or follow as you choose.
I think you might be gay too!
Birdman… I think some great comments over not including the sh#t fight going on.
I do believe possible higher US interest rate out although very small increases but will also keep the dollar buoyant. There few places to put bulk capital. The Chinese stock market is heading for trouble. My best researcher mentioned that a while ago…Not a US type meltdown but some very serious trouble..At the time he was talking a few years out. China’s market and reporting of companies is very corrupt as I see it and ifs a highly risky place to be…Where does that leave us….to the USA…still for safety of capital…No US wipe out in my view…
Nothing wrong with gay…not me though LOL
Actually, I don’t really mean that comment, Bill. Just trying to get these guys to wake up from their obsessive Bird-centric stupidity and get them back on track. So a little mocking is well worth the effort if it works to change the focus. They don’t seem to realize what a bunch of dullards they have become.
I would watch the Chinese markets closely if I were you. When they crack there is going to be ripples everywhere and maybe that will be the moment our own markets go into a correction. Just remember, we are all linked on some level even when it is not obvious from an investment perspective.
What we do know (and I have no doubt about this at all) is that the Shanghai will crash. It is just a matter of time now. Maybe weeks and maybe months. Be very careful because as you know liquidity is thin and a no-bid market could come right out of the damned blue.
I agree Bird…When the China market goes…we could be in for a world of trouble.
Also I think you just like poking fun…People take the bait…Some of its pretty funny to me as I’m not offended by anyone here…I like Matty too.
Is it tax deductible? 🙂
My Fuel???
Business expense..you bet…Parts, vehicles, ferries, flights, and some wine!…Good thing about cell communications..
You are an interesting guy, Bird. That is one of the reasons for the “obsesdio” as your wife calls it.
By the way, I am curious is she a native of Africa? I have a reason for asking.
There is a man in our Parish who married an African woman wwith three kids. Hher sister, with a couple of kids, was brutally killed and they adopted her kids. He is a hero within our Parish.
Stories like that reaffirm one’s faith in Humanity.
You are an interesting guy too Al. I hope you are feeling better day by day. You sound good, man. About my wife…yes, she is African. That is how I ended up over here to begin with. A really great gal. She’s setting up to open a small factory and I have great faith she will have a lot of success. I can’t help her though. The language here is all Greek to me so I am pretty much an outsider and idle bystander. Best I could do was add to her capital base and give her a hug and say good luck sweetie!
Your wife sounds like a perfect match for you. No surprise though, one would have to be equally pathetic to put up with you.
No one “obsesses” over you, you’re just a nightmare that will do anything for attention including imagining that others are jealous of you.
It’s a good thing that poor Al would read your site, because you’ve already taken his over.
The above comment should have appeared under Bird’s.
No, nobody obsesses. That’s why you are still using my online handle of Birdman!
And I didn’t even mention that 18 of your posts are directed at me and that you linked to 5 of my old comments. Nope, no obsession here at all. How about the show Matty? Anything to say about segment one?
tell her to get a life………….lol………he,he…………good one.
Birdman said, “Absolutely enraged….”
To quote Rodney King, “Can we all get along.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1sONfxPCTU0
After all, this is the Korelin Economics Report, not the Corleone Economics Report.
+1 Ebolan.
Ding Ding. Fights over It’s Sunday.
As I stated in Dec no dollar crash. I think commodities struggle. If you can pickup some good oil companies cheap and wait and wait I think you can make a buck.
It burns my banana that when we were at $150 a barrel it was $1.50 a liter and at now $50 we a running $1.30. We are getting screwed on on levels. I picked up a Nissan Leaf electric for the wife. Charge it for a couple bucks in the garage. This avoids the carbon tax scam on fuel in BC and every other tax. I love it and I can’t figure out why there are so few of these babies out here. Happy Sunday!
Bill, how is the Nissan Leaf’s performance? Gas here in Montreal is hovering around $1.17, which is not too bad… allows me to take out my muscle cars out for a spin without burning a huge whole in pockets.
Posted above Chris.
There is virtually no draw backs for us. It’s a 2012
Chris
On fuel…its funny how people become desensitized on price. 15 years ago was paying .35cents….or $1.33 gallon. Now $1.17L and $4.43 a gallon and virtually no pay raises in the many past years people just pay it and oh well. No wonder most are broker today with virtually no savings and no chance of retirement!
Bill, your right about the price on fuel. We have become desensitized. 20-30 years ago I used to pitch a fit when gas at the pump moved higher. Now, not so much. I just pay it and thank my lucky stars that the hit to my wallet wasn’t greater.
I here ya Chris. Nice rides…
PS I burn more fuel than anyone…$10,000.00 last year in my Tundra LTD, I just bill’em…Work.
Its nice to have a grocery getter that requires pretty much nothing. I can charge up for free with my solar power…
What kind of cars, Chris?
Big Al, my main four cars are:
1972 Monte Carlo
1969 Mustang
1977 Z28
1970 Pontiac GTO (my favorite)
427 Ford?
And to you also Bill,
Big Al
Bird says: “What a really F***ed up guy he is that he could not congratulate Doc..”
And you’re so F-ed up yourself that you didn’t thank him for taking the time to show you the light. You weren’t even able to be respectful. BIG surprise.
On February 12, 2014 at 9:14 pm,
Birdman says:
No, you don’t know the difference, Matthew. I doubt you will ever get it either. Your one dimensional bleating about precious metals is tiring and misses the point that should be obvious from an historical perspective. Gold is fascinating though because of how it bridges both primitive and modern cultures. I will grant that it has a similar allure in both however our trading today has become quite a bit more sophisticated in the scope of choices available. There is certainly a close link between the accumulation of assets that have traditionally been used as a near substitutes for foodgrains, wax, wood, incense, salt and even meats though. There is an intimate link between precious metals and exchanges of goods between countries and those goods were primarily foods in early times, including salt or other basic raw materials. So chicken and wheat are representative of money (silver, gold, shells) and vice versa especially where they were not otherwise easily traded without the innovation of a currency medium. That is how early trade evolved and it is how and why our modern currencies came into being beginning with the first paper chits proving ownership of grain stores. So yes, chicken equates to wealth rather directly and you would know this if you have ever experienced living in a developing economy that still functions along the basic lines of trade and exchange that were well known before the innovations of electronic trading and paper currency came into widespread use. They barter here still. It remains the most common form of economic exchanges between neighbors in the rural parts to the country. Chicken is money. Learn that and you might get a better insight into what wealth really means when it is stepped up to the modern world.
On February 13, 2014 at 7:56 am,
Richard says:
Birdman
Chicken and wheat are not representative of money. They represent food.
On March 3, 2014 at 5:01 am,
Birdman says:
Wrong Richard. You really want to be in Matthews camp on this one?
bird, this might be dum, I understand various things can be money/currency.
But I thought all were representative of labour.
Even when currency/money is food, like chickens for example, even tho a chicken is food, is it all not labour being traded?
If not, what am I missing or misguided on?
Not if you believe the do-do could hit the fan, then it’s up to you to look down the road.
A lot of people think their jobs will always be there, if you can’t think beyond the day to day in our economy, then you are your worst enemy!
So anything that has value is money? Hardly. Don’t worry, your gold will buy more chickens than ever if the SHTF. You’ll see.
Matthew, you know that I agree! DT
Of course, DT. Comments just aren’t going where they should. 😐
Yes, anything that has a value to another person and that can be bartered, traded or swapped is effectively money. That is how the world has worked since the beginning of human interactions. If you scratch my back then I scratch yours. That is money. Even sex is a form of money. And we all know that prostitution is called the worlds oldest occupation. But you hardly need to go back to proto history to see the exchanges in action. During the Second World War we know that American troops traded chocolate, coffee, stcckings and canteen supplies for sex with European women. Well what is that?…….it is a trade and a trade is the very basis of the monetary system where a commodity in demand on one side can be readily exchanged where that supply is demanded. So chocolate was money to one side and sex was money to the other. Maybe not so divisible and fungible but you would be a fool to not understand the simplicity of the economic arrangements made when the system has broken down and all money becomes privately issued!
Didn’t see this when I posted.
I agree.
Currency then is merely an agreed upon unit of exchange to facilitate business.
I should say that WE can help.
Mathew no disrespect as a multiple business owner I don’t believe gold outperforms chickens in a collapse, In the end who cares who nudges who? When your freaking scared shirtless or hungry your want to be a betting man? Food is in the F**king bank. I wasn’t born yesterday it was the day before….
Actually born 1965 lol
I would agree with that bb. If everybody did nothing, as in a pure welfare state or under Communism where the state is your Papa and the citizens cease to be motivated towards production that does not benefit them, then there is essentially no money with which to trade, shop, barter or invest.
————————
On a different subject, I think I know why this site has degraded the way it has into open daily warfare and name calling. I have been giving it a little thought and wondering what happened to the normal dialogue we once enjoyed here. The answer might surprise you.
In essence, the mood of the participants is in parallel to the declining cycle of asset prices for our favored topic which is of course metals. By my reckoning, we are somewhere between the capitulation and despondency stages that are common at the end points of a bubble that has burst and that makes for a lot of angry disappointed gold bulls.
This is a time when most investors in a commodity (such as gold and silver) have sold out, given up hope and moved on to other pastures or are just waiting for the pain to end. The positive feelings are gone at this stage. Bottom fishing bets are not paying off for most and frustration levels are high.
There is a great chart on the stages of a bubble that I will link here. I am sure you have seen it before. I think its fairly easy to recognize where we are along the path for gold just by examining this graph.
Points of maximum financial risk; maximum financial reward
http://common.tycoonresearch.com/assets/image/04022008_bubble.jpg
What the chart tells us about is the mood of investors as we walk through each of the stages. It is really an emotion driven cycle encompassing the extremes of fear, greed, opportunity and loss.
As we get to the bottom of the cycle we might expect to see bickering and arguments breaking out. The bulls are exasperated and depressed at this stage and the majority are losing money or have simply given up and held on in the hope one day their holdings will rise again.
They don’t want to talk gold anymore for the most part and instead turn their energy on attacking bears who seemingly made out well through the declines. This should be apparent by the level of personal attacks as they have grown sharply even as precious metals prices withered.
The good news is that this also means we are nearing the end of the falling price cycle at which point we can begin to expect a reversal in fortunes. So maybe we should not despair too much by the tone around here lately. If I am right then it is just a matter of time before the mood goes positive as gold reasserts itself once more.
How much time is another matter. It could be mere weeks or it could be another year.
Marty says the metals not ready for prime time.
Fasten your seat belts as choas is coming.
Everything is corrupt. Its desperately bad
and going to get much worse.
Theft by design. Welcome to the new paradigm.
NWO…
As good a theory as any other Bird. People definitely can get irritable in stressful situations.
So what do you feel a currency represents, the issuer?
Other than a currency with value as itself.
Yeah, thanks bb. I kind of like my theory. It helps take the heat off a few people too because instead of just concluding they just suddenly turned into complete arses we can instead see that their behavior mirrors a well known pattern of moods in the marketplace.
Suddenly it all makes sense.
And at that point we can be less concerned feeling the attacks are really all that personal but rather they represent ordinary swings in human emotion related to the cycle of rises and falls and the fortunes of those invested in these assets.
Lets put this another way….happy people don’t behave so badly. When we are on top of our game and most are making money we feel generous and sociable. We are also more forgiving and less inclined to feel slighted by others.
What the negative posts tell me indirectly is about the sense of losses that many here feel as the gold market has refused to rebound as many had anticipated. The Elliot Wave people and Prechter talk about this kind of thing a lot so it is a well known phenomenon.
So we can probably just relax. Gold will rise again. And as it does the mood on the site will improve. Cheers! (feeling good bb because I was a bear the whole way down!!!!!)
Could not agree more, Bird!
That is why all irrelevant comments will now be trashed. We are all too smart for them.
THANK YOU AL!!!!
I am really happy to hear that. Feel free to trash a few of mine that were just spontaneous lashing out at a few people who were getting on my nerves. We will all feel better if the mood on the site is improved if only by discouraging bad posts…..at least until gold goes back up again.
You are one great guy, Bird.
Big Al
I couldn’t agree more, how blind can AL be.
Think its best those that are against the abuse here
not return to this board.
There is something very wrong with this posturing and
judgment is completely misplaced.
Those who don’t post anymore like Eric etc made sound
decisions not to return. Like Matthew said..good luck with
it. Glen I believe is very dusturbed as well. Tony never posts
any longer. We are all leaving. Best we do until sanity returns.
Sanity returned last night Heavy. By the way, I happen to completely agree with you.
Heavy,
As i questioned Andrew, don’t you think that my recent stroke had a bit to do with our lack of policing?
If you can’t live with that, then please do leave!
Big AL, yes absolutely. No question about it. Please see my post on todays
forum Rick A.
Lets not sweat this and wrote a long commentary to you. Please take good
care of yourself. I do apologize and you will know the solution.
This will soon pass.
Thanks Heavy!
You have a new poster now..Nancy. Good comments and
its a postive development going in the right direction.
Slowly work on getting everyone back in here posting again
with new moderation in place. What ever you decide to do.
Not blind anymore Machine Gun.
We will try and stay as current as possible and trash all stupid comments.
Please bear with us.
Best to you.
Thank you Al.
That should improve the site immensely.
Thanks Bb. Everyone on this site is very bright and very well informed. We all need to capitalize on that and forget the things that don’t matter. We are facing serious issues and we need to help eachother. Sometime I think no one else is there for us. Think about that. I certainly have!
You said it Bill. Always has been that way and always will be. We know for example that during the Dark Ages when labour was scarce and money was not readily circulating that taxes were levied in the form of a percentage of a farms harvest. So indeed, food is money. Certainly it was for the Kings, Regents, Princes and Landholders who collected the tax. Actually, if we read just about any material from the past we can see that resources of one kind or another were what governments and authorities sought when they came for their piece of the pie. It is preposterous that some people here claim that ONLY gold functions in that way. They obviously don’t know history.
the HOOTER WILL BE FINE………….
Who are you talking to Jerry?
My last three comments got rearranged….I think AL, jumped in and scrambled the link
Looks like my response to this totally out of context post was deleted. Sorry Al but I have to ask that the post above that caused the problem and required an answer from me also be deleted.
I have the original comment btw. Perhaps I will just put it up again since these repeated Matthew copy-pastes of two year old remarks are not only tiresome but they have little bearing on the thread or the conversation.
That’s my objection. If this post stands then so do my responses.
Hardly out of context, Bird. It’s important to show that you used to get very angry by the same kind of talk that you now completely accept. You even carry a shiny new Martin stick to beat people with if they dare to disagree.
Please explain to everyone here why a pair of unrelated and without context posts that are almost two years old are applicable to this weekends show. Also explain why you have linked said posts five times under similar circumstances when I was no even addressing you!
Birdman is a one man wrecking ball busy trying to sabotage this site. Why doesn’t he start his own NER (narcissists’ economic report) taking his few acolytes with him?
I left a longish post on interest rates and inflation the other day, Andrew. I am curious to hear what comments you have on that subject because it is becoming increasingly clear that a rise in interest rates will indeed lead to higher inflation.
So let me repost it for you. Perhaps you will redirect your energy back to the topics on this site. This is very applicable to where the price of gold will go in the future by the way. Can you offer some input?
——————————
On April 2, 2015 at 12:43 am,
Birdman says:
I really don’t think we need to worry (about rising interest rates). Certainly not by a half point initial rise anyway. Nor should we feel the need to buckle up for a rise that was as much as a full percentage point. That, by the way, has NOT been ruled out so we won’t assume anything where the Fed is concerned.
Most of the popular notions about interest rate increases are just noise anyway. The changes are seen at the margin and it is not as if the entire economy will plummet into default with such small adjustments or that the Federal debt will instantly implode and destroy life in America as we know it.
That’s mostly blog chatter as I am sure you are aware.
For example, we might have concluded that the beginnings of a rate normalization process would stall the housing sector and plunge us instantly into the death grip of another real estate bust, if we were to take heed of the Pop Pundits warnings.
What they never get though is that interest rates are linked to inflation; the point being that a devaluative effect is seen in the net indebtedness even as the cost of servicing the debt rises. Think about that for a second. Borrowers live for inflation. It is what makes that 300,000 thousand dollar home feel like it cost merely 50,000 after the passage of a few decades.
So this is a trade off in some respects. There are two sides to the entry….a Yin and a Yang if you will and not just a one sided entry where there is only a cost punishment for society at large and the governments that are in power.
Closer to the truth is that rate rises actually stimulate borrowing.
This is probably the key point in the puzzle as to why rate normalization will actually promote a return to target inflation numbers (or higher). The effect works because borrowers are induced to take loans today at good rates when there is a belief they will be higher tomorrow.
This does not just apply to consumer lending either. We will see the effect at work across the economy from Municipal and State governments, to business both small and large. The outcome is that the borrowed capital gets put back to work and an expansion ensues which ultimately drives inflation rates even higher.
As I said, interest and inflation are closely linked in the modern era. So when the Fed warns it is going to raise rates it is almost by definition telling us that economic activity will pick up and inflation is coming. This should be quite obvious to those who read their charts but for some mysterious reason I cannot fathom it is entirely overlooked by virtually everyone!
Not everyone gets it of course. Most don’t to be honest.
Instead we will continue to hear the plaintiff sirens of impending disaster from all corners of the blogoshpere where agendas against public institutions still rule the airwaves. You sure cannot invest based on what most of those pre-programmed goofballs are saying though. They just keep singing the same damned song like Gospel Hymns and in the process become part of the problem as they keep enlightenment dwelling within a cave.
I will give you an example of where the room to grow will come though. We all know that most every asset class is inflated right now. From antiques and property to stocks and bonds. But do you know what is cheap at this time and probably near its bottom?
Industrial machinery and commercial / industrial space.
What does that tell us? Other than the fact that what is now at the bottom is set to eventually rise and what is at its peak is set to fall. This basic idea is incontestable in the world of charts where we know factually that nothing falls forever and also that nothing rises without end.
So we have therefore got the seeds for the next period of expansion even though almost nobody wants to see it and fewer still would believe it. In short I am saying now is the time for a shift in thinking and a move away from financial assets where inflation rages in valuations and back into productive enterprise and capital acquisitions. This is actually an ideal time to contemplate the beginnings a new enterprise.
So while we are awash in excess capacity today and a manufacturer finds selling equipment is akin to pulling hens teeth we will also see an abrupt turnaround as economic activity rises and inflation makes its return. Those are like seasons. I do in fact expect that in the coming years we will see productivity rise in many of the developed Western nations and that is essential for there to be balance and promote relative income growth.
The shift should already be getting underway.
Funny: “…interest and inflation are closely linked in the modern era.” When were they not?
Bird says: “Closer to the truth is that rate rises actually stimulate borrowing… “because borrowers are induced to take loans today at good rates when there is a belief they will be higher tomorrow.”
—You’ve got it backwards, Birdman. Prices rise due to rising demand and the interest rate is the price of capital. Ergo, rates rise when the demand for capital rises, not the other way around.
Birdman says: “So when the Fed warns it is going to raise rates it is almost by definition telling us that economic activity will pick up and inflation is coming. This should be quite obvious to those who read their charts but for some mysterious reason I cannot fathom it is entirely overlooked by virtually everyone!”
—Really? You should be able to fathom how this is “entirely overlooked by virtually everyone.” You used to fight me on the point and insist that gold would fall if rates were to rise. Or is this still your view? Will gold fall as rates rise this time?
“Funny: “…interest and inflation are closely linked in the modern era.” When were they not?” — Matthew
———————–
You had best pull up a chart of interest rates and inflation since you obviously don’t know the answer. Why not just pull the one out of your ass that is most similar to the response you left. I am sure it will suffice.
Don’t divert from the real problem BM which is YOU!
Got any thoughts on the economy? The segments with Mr Belkin were probably the best of the show. What do you think about his ideas on gold stocks and his new newsletter?
I would visit Birds site frequently
And you will be more than welcome should I ever begin one Lorenzo!
Absolutly, of course I would read it every day.
You mad some good posts today.
Interesting how good Doc thinking was about the Shanghi. Way to go Doc.
Doc is often corrrct. I would read Bird also
Big Al
Plus all his insults Al?
Taken by me with a grain of salt. When it gets too personal, I just trash it.
Big Al
On second thoughts, why not actively encourage him Al?
I try to actively encourage everyone and that is not limited to this site!
Ever hear that old expression Reverend? It goes like this……”pissing into the wind”.
You can do the visuals for yourself. Even a guy with no imagination gets it.
I’ve blown your cover BM and that’s all that matters to me.
So now you are admitting to being vindictive? Cool. Good to know that you have come forward and told us your satisfaction is geared to damaging the reputation of another person who posts on this site.
Is there much profit in that? Like your books……
Loads of profit on both fronts.
Look at this article Andrew. I now have a major supporter in the world of banking who backs my thesis that the dollar has peaked and will turn down shortly. Not only that but they cited almost the identical reasons I laid out for this to be the top; primarily that the buck had gone parabolic and could thus be modeled similarly to any other chart showing an asset price bubble.
I have discussed tis many times on this site since before the dollar even peaked but until now have been unable to find a single supporter anywhere nor amongst the many analysts who frequently armchair market dynamics.
Certainly nobody here agreed with me, yourself included. Actually, none of you even commented on my thoughts since you are all rather hell bent on arguing than discussing markets.
But now HSBC has come out with a major contrarian call against the continuation of the dollars bullish run higher and I have found myself in very good company. So if you missed your first chance during March to get short the buck and get long Euros it may well be coming around again.
My contention as you have read many times is for the dollar to double top before making the reversal and going down. That idea is based almost entirely on chart dynamics because there is not a good fundamental case for that to be happening. Secondly, such a decline brings the opening the Fed needs to introduce its first rate hike in many years.
Here is the story:
This amazing dollar rally has a lot in common with classic bubbles –Market Watch April 10th
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-amazing-dollar-rally-has-a-lot-in-common-with-classic-bubbles-2015-04-10
Now, isn’t that more satisfying that constantly bothering me for no good damned reason?
And here is a link to one of the many threads of comments I have posted in the past months on the dollar and why I am certain it has peaked and will soon double top before going into a decline.
Weekend Show – Sat 28 Mar, 2015 — Birdman’s comments on the dollar
http://www.kereport.com/2015/03/28/27980/#comments
BM it’s wonderful how you go from being all vindictive to little boy lost all in a heartbeat.
Here is the thing, you need to stop talking about me and get focused on the show for a change. The obsession is tiring. ALL your comments are about me lately.
But that’s just HOW you want BM. Loads of talk about YOU! Don’t be self-effacing all of a sudden.
YOU are responsible for your own posts. If you make them about me then that is YOUR problem.
You boys will love this.
Great Eddie!
And I hear the Wicked Witch will declare her candidacy for dictator this weekend.
That new is quenching all the other news. Go figure!
Big Al
Bird,
A number of us check the “pending comments”
Not sure which one you thought I deleated.
Big Al
I believe Stockman is right on with his comments about deflation. Pensions are still in deep trouble in this country and so are states and munipalities. There are so many competing needs with less dollars to meet them. As such, you’re bound to have “deflation” in services going forward. You can squeeze the tax turnips only so far going forward especially since wages and median incomes are having trouble keeping up with basic goods inflation—then you have the demographic issue of the boomers who as they get older aren’t the consumer they were. Then you have more immigration for which jobs will be difficult to find putting more on the “dole”. Forget about the kind of growth in the past especially with productivity no longer keeping up. When the next significant recession comes, it’ll just magnify the problems we already have. One has to wonder what the response will be then by the powers to be. The conventional market could move higher but the gains are now limited and it’s like wondering when the fuel in the plane is going to run out. Greece is just the tip of the ice berg as regards to what will happen all through the globe. The next time around; will an attempt be made to keep the banks levitating or will the decision finally be made to let the catharsis happen? Or will the idea that printing money to keep the ponzi scheme going is obviously broken and a global monetary reset of some kind is attempted. Every month, the feeling intensifies of a deeper fall into the rabbit hole. It’s only a matter of time now when we hit bottom.
What do youmean, “we are consuming less”! Where do you think I get my self worth? Buying things and more things. I will never feel good about myself or be a better golfer if I don’t continually buy new drivers and new putters. Common you are a doctor, you know that!
Al, Cory, Doc and co:
Not sure if you guys have spent much time looking into any of them but curious if you have done any research on the drone tech industry?
I’m personally not interested one bit in the weaponized / militarized aspects but there are some HUGE ideas coming out of this industry! A few if come across include everything from paramedics directing drones to response scenes with aed s for heart attacks, of course photography has been revolutionized by leaps and bounds thanks to drone tech. Even the idea of things like pizza delivery to rural locations … would love to see a newsletter on this industry and potential stock picks from you guys on this
IS THe POSTING MACHINE BROKE…………none of my post are going under the right person………………..
Not at all sure why that is happening. Sorry.
For some reason this here blog software is not indenting the posts correctly…:(
For some reason this here blog software is not indenting the posts correctly 🙁
We have been hacked! Look out boys, the spooks have arrived and now they are mixing up posts and deleting stuff they don’t like. Guess it had to come to this eventually.
I really don’t think so, Bird.
The gold bear/bull debate should be over at this point. Metals might be up early next week, but we are still in a major downtrend. The GDXJ chart is cooked! It has to drop. I just can’t see any way around it.
If we don’t see a big washout in a week? I’ll be astonished.
That being said, I’m looking forward to the mining stocks real soon.
( just not right now )
Holly shit Mathew your are not ignorining Birdman. Change your handle man. Incidentally I watched the movie Birdman. Crazy and stupid but almost funny.
Bird correct on Fed banco still love Matty.
Mathew… in a very simplied response as way above wish I had your time to spew No Ofense…….Did you buy the index or the companies? The performance of gold companies VS tech or Bio Bulls was pathetic if you want a comparison. They did well but not near what one would have thought would be the leverage of gold price plus in the ground reserves.
Terrible actually. Tech companies went super Nova prior 2000. 50-100 times and all you need was skate board. No bubble here.
So true Bill. Maybe his heart was in the right place to start with and he really intended to ignore me. But he is so overcome by emotional reactions each day he cannot stop himself. My wife thinks he has “tendencies” mixed with hero worship since he insists on using my online name. Kind of gives me the creeps. Sorry I can’t tell you what she said in more exact terms. The site would go crazy if they read her remarks.
Does not look like Mr. Belkin has a solid enough background to write a mining newsletter. Good luck though.
Your next dog.
Mish Shadlock is thinking of getting one of these dogs to guard his plants from the deer.
I just hope he doesn’t kick the dog like they did in the video. As someone ominously commented:
“I am sure kicking the robot dog will have no repercussions down the line when AI is finally invented and it discovers YouTube.”
Another one, although I don’t know if I’d want a dog that barked like a chainsaw…
And Wild Cat
COT REPORT:
From this COT report, gold can start an upleg for a month or two OR
it can be short-lived and resume the downleg …
MUST READ: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/06/dollar-imperialism-2015-edition/
Dollar Imperialism, 2015 Edition
“The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”
All these pop-shots and sniping is almost as significant as a gnat fart in a wind storm.
Let’s move on, shall we ?
From what I’m seeing on charts, cycle and geopolitical moves. It looks like the dollar and the euro make a run to parity for the next few weeks. That could or should coincide with the final wash in metals. Might even be the bottom in oil as well. The next three weeks should tell the story ” if the cycle calculation is correct “.
( key word, IF )
What can I do Chartster. I have five or six of them on my tail every single day now and not one of them wants to talk about the economy anymore. It is just pick, pick, pick and then they blame me for the problem.
Al says: “You are an interesting guy, Bird. That is one of the reasons for the “obsesdio” as your wife calls it.”
WRONG AL. You’re cluelessness on this Bird matter is offensive and very disappointing.
Yes sorry Al but Matthew is right.
Nobody cares what you guys think. Just get over it.
Matthew his wife’s in Ireland or so I supposed!!
Matthew his wife’s in Ireland isn’t she?!
@chartist…….
Wonder what happened to franky….
Good question.
Bill, chris – from what I understand hybrids are so ‘yesterday’. With 75% of the universe made out of hydrogen, hydrogen fuelled cars are the future emitting only water vapour. Toyota, Hyundis and Honda are all at an advanced stage of development with Toyata making all of its patent freely available to other manufacturers.
My buddies an aircraft tech and I a communications tech. We would put 1 thin dime into hydrogen. It is riddled with problems. Storing stability and using it in a pack is a serious problem STILL. This battery pack should go a 160,000 Kms which will last us 30 years. I wrench diesels gas you name it and I’m stoked about not having to stop at a parts store that has ever increasing prices. I’m shocked at parts prices in Canada. It’s a rack man most coming from China. My dodge blew a trany while way out of town. $3,300.00. It will take years to get mainstream but I think batts are here to stay. I’m the firrst in this small town now there’s 3. I’m not afraid of them because I understand them in detail. The Leaf has as much space inside as the Volvo.
Thanks for that Bill. On second thoughts a Tesla will have to do!!
YES AND YES ! but not going $100k all in….but for the money beats all gasers hands down. Gas will die with new technology in coming years. I’m a technologist for 27 years i see it like a freight train. A caveat to that there ALWAYS things that blindside us….
Chevy Volt going bye bye…………
Ya there’s no point in owning gas and batt combined. More moving parts more parts to fail. Go gas or batt or have one of each…
I have not heard that, Jerry.
The car is faster off the line than a mussel car. When you drive it it’s impressive. There a YouTube showing it corrnnering up to 1 g keeping pace with a Porche. It’s very quite in the cab and you feel like a Jetson driving one. My brother inlaw likes it beter than his Acura and was spending $600 a month in fuel on his pickup per month and that’s in the US. I bought it for $13k USD with 26k Kms on it. Wasn’t going to shell out for a new one. They have virtually zero maintanace accept tires. Batt replacement will com down it time and provide more range with higher density. They are the perfect commuter car. The wife was burning out the exhaust every 2 years due to short trips in town. Now no exhaust!!!
You just have to decide if you need it for xcontry trips or not. Not designed for that.
If it’s cold timer will preheat seats and steering wheel ect prior to your launch to save energy.
What’s really going to happen to America ????
We should all be concerned because the whole world
is at risk. All investments are in peril and how can all
these crises be solved with lawlessness that comsumes
Washington.
Will O…leave the White House.
Change the dialog on the board and
comments from all participants here
welcome.
I will not be posting. The video contains
possibly very disturbing news and just
informing everyone. You decide.
America is in a whole lot of trouble.
Does anyone care ??
HH….thanks for the post and video ……….j
O will leave office………Hillary will make sure of it…………
She can now play the BIRTHER ISSUE….SINCE she is not in office.
and There WILL most definitely be a march on Washington….and the 535 members better make sure that he leaves.
Wishful thinking J……Michelle could be the
next president. No doubt.
You have been warned. O ..if he is the lawless
one and sure acts like it, he won’t be leaving.
Thanks ..J..hope your day is going well.
Can’t really post on this board as all the
posts are misfiring all over the place.
no problem , you are correct on the misfiring
and Hope all is well…..j
J…Maybe your right about Hellary.
Then again O..likes his job. He plays god.
they burned the WHITE HOUSE ONCE………
I just read the White House has been locked down twice this week,,,,,one concerning the electric ………and two someone firing shots …………
I guess …J. .we will all find out.
This year will be a turning point…IMHO.
Something is coming and its not prosperity.
Exact opposite IMHO
Yes…J..a suicide and other news…
Your right
I will ask Sarah to look into this.
Good to hear from you H. Continuing on the theme of civil upheaval….
http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2562-strapped-americans-headed-for-civil-unrest-and-riots-with-poor-spending-60-on-bare-essentials
Hello Reverend Andrew….thanks… hope all is well with you.
Interesting article you just posted. Thank you.
I live here in America as you know and businesses
are not doing well. Tons of huge properties gone
vacant occupied by huge international companies.
These are 50,000 plus S.F. on about 5 acres.
Then you have retail too and office space plentiful.
Industrial properties abundant.
I just don’t listen to the news but take a look around
with a critical eye and the business cycle topped. IMHO
Housing here is softening up now too.
Until we get to the other side with signs that we have
a recovery which is a long ways off and war has been
settled the next few years looks very grim. IMHO
GOOD TO HEAR FROM YOU.. Happy Sunday. .. : )
Next few years won’t be happy..IMHO
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-11/meet-secretive-group-runs-world
More interesting news on who runs the world.
Its not the broke citizen minions. Count on that.
good interview HEAVY….
That said US is going to bump along for some time…pretty hard to see way out….
Bill, thanks and good to see you posting.
Not sure if I agree with the bump along.
That’s probably very optimistic.
Time will reveal the truth.
The truth always prevails.
Should know by year end anyway.
Thanks HH..lot of wisdom in what Carson says….
Yes Gator, thanks for the input. Much appreciated.
I thought it was interesting and America is really on
the wrong path. Carson I believe is sincere in his words.
Birdman… I think some great comments over not including the sh#t fight going on.
I do believe possible higher US interest rate out although very small increases but will also keep the dollar buoyant. There few places to put bulk capital. The Chinese stock market is heading for trouble. My best researcher mentioned that a while ago…Not a US type meltdown but some very serious trouble..At the time he was talking a few years out. China’s market and reporting of companies is very corrupt as I see it and ifs a highly risky place to be…Where does that leave us….to the USA…still for safety of capital…No US wipe out in my view…
Nothing wrong with gay…not me though LOL
Anyone shorting gold and silver this week?
Clive Maund’s latest thoughts on gold and on the US Dollar:
428 Super Cobra Jet
COT REPORT:
From this COT report, gold can start an upleg for a month or two OR
it can be short-lived and resume the downleg …
MUST READ: http://www.counterpunch.org/2015/03/06/dollar-imperialism-2015-edition/
Dollar Imperialism, 2015 Edition
“The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.”
bb,
Currently money is good faith and credit of the US Treasury. But the world has lost faith, and our credibility is shot.
The end of fiat looms very large!
I certainly agree with your first paragraph, Chartster!
Big Al
THE KER blog is now unreadable, for me ~ Brian
We are now trashing ALL irrelevant comments as they serve no purpose. We put too much work in on this.
Al, Cory and contributing group. It was a good weekend show. It’s a shame everyone got off topic and went ego stupid. I hope it changes soon.
From nkow on all those comments wiil be trashed as they serve no benefit to anyone!
I’d love it if people would speak about the markets or pm. Being that fiat money is worthless because all countries are printing. It seems to be inevitable that gold and silver will be the place to be when the shtf. The only question is when will the shtf? And does it matter as long as you have food lead and pm. Someone please show me where ‘m wrong.
I live in Virginia and work in DC. I have lived here since 1975. My Dad spent 40 YEARS at the Pentagon. My ex-wife was CIA when we were married. I currently work in security for Uncle Sam. So yeah, I know what you are saying about the DC Area.
Do you happen to know Glen Doewns? If not, you should. I can help.
Marty dependent on computer models, and I don’t think there’s anyway to model what’s about to happen anymore than the weatherman because of timing and a number of variables. Occam’s razor dictates that the simplest answer is usually the right answer.
Ya know what Big Al,,,to make an omelet your going to have to smash a few eggs….People don’t agree or get alone here but just maybe once in a while an omelet DOES get gets made…
Good position being neutral.
Al, I know that not a few guys on this site will be both hurt and disappointed that you fail to address the deeper problems here. Nor by just binning certain obnoxious posts does that resolve matters! I like to think that I’m one of the first people happy to draw a line when someone says Sorry and to move on. After all the Good book says to forgive (and be forgiven) seventy times seven if need be. Blood families let alone your belief that KER is a family will inevitably test those boundaries and that’s all part of life’s rich tapestry.
However as we probably also know from family clashes or whatever, if apologies don’t get properly aired and shared then one is left with loose ends. The tragedy of life is that it’s one great tangled mess of loose ends, which means that even if one endeavours to forgive, the memory of those ‘loose ends’ lives on and things are never the same.
My regards to one and all, Andrew
Every stop to consider that my recent stroke might have kept me from being as proactive as I should have been?
Nor Mathew can one have any meaningful discussion here if posts like my last one go flying off into the ether. Or about 50-60 places above yours.
You’re right my friend. Take care, A
The posturing in here is just remarkable. Evil is good.
Thats the sick message and anyone who thinks that
commenting in here is a place to express opinions will
be cut off with accusations and abusive behavior.
Remaining in the group of contributing to the comments
here will only identify you as a very unsound, unstable and
a person due no respect whatsoever.
Very reason our nation and world is crumbling. Good is considered
bad. No one cares and people need to stand up for whats right.
Its time to take that stand !!! Or don’t complain later you were abused.
We have definitely taken a stand, Heavy.
Below are 2 straight copy-and-pastes from Pam & Russ Martens missive for Fri., April 9 2015 on their site [they don’t upload on Sat. or Sun.].
The remainder of the article, titled: ”Treasury Flash Crash of October 15, 2014 Still Has Wall Street in a Sweat” ] is on their site, http://wallstreetonparade.com/ and makes for a good read.
START PASTE______________________________
Paragraphs 1 & 2 [ of 12 ] state:
‘You know times are weird on Wall Street when JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon devotes a good chunk of his shareholder letter, released yesterday, to fretting about whether there will be enough Treasury notes to go around in a safe haven stampede during the next crisis.
Dimon writes that “In a crisis, everyone rushes into Treasuries to protect themselves. In the last crisis, many investors sold risky assets and added more than $2 trillion to their ownership of Treasuries (by buying Treasuries or government money market funds). This will be even more true in the next crisis. But it seems to us that there is a greatly reduced supply of Treasuries to go around – in effect, there may be a shortage of all forms of good collateral.”
Paragraph 6 [ of 12 ] states:
Market data firm, Nanex, reported that between 9:33 and 9:45 a.m. on the morning of October 15, 2014, “liquidity evaporated in Treasury futures and prices skyrocketed (causing yields to plummet). Five minutes later, prices returned to 9:33 [a.m.] levels.” Nanex goes on to say that “Trading activity was enormous, sending trade counts for the entire day to record highs — exceeding that of the Lehman collapse, the financial crisis and the August 2011 downgrade of U.S. debt.”
END PASTE ______________________________
—LFP
P.S. apologies for the double post,
Link still scrambled Matthew so my previous sympathies have already gone elsehere. Maybe this one will land beneath your one of 12.10 am.
Matthew, DT and HH For some reason my posts are getting scrambled. Way up further somewhere on the list which makes having any sequential thoughts on this matter totally absurd. Anyway see where this post lands up and rest assured I’m with you 100%., I too am reluctant to post HH, and all I can add Al is that there’s no fool like an old fool as I know full well. A
See what I mean re scrambled posts!
Reverend Andrew you might attempt to click on “reply to this post”
otherwise it will be lost on the board. Might try that and express
your concerns. There have been many posters here offended by
abuse of Bird and bb. All my conflicted here was because of the
very harrassment of these two.. Now they are considered innocent
of anything. Very alarming and disturbing. Tony and many others
who quit posting because the insults were so abusive, name calling
etc. Anyway, take good care but I will not tolerate it any longer and
agree with Matthew. Yes, like he said good luck with it. You can’t be
of sound mind to tolerate the abuse.Sanity must return otherwise
it makes no sense to post.
That problem is now solved, Heavy!
By the way good advice to Andrew above.
Best
Thanks H – yes I always use the reply to this post, but to no avail. Like you I’m sick to my back teeth – something very wrong with this site of late. Everry blessing, a
Thank you Reverend Andrew. I think Big AL will make everything good.
Probably wait for an editorial to explain his new model for regulating and
maintaining a respectful forum. Maybe someone can volunteer as a moderator
and not suggesting you but you would be the top pick with J. Both of you
are very kind hearted. Even if its part time would help Big AL. He needs to
make that decision of coarse. Just a thought and to soften the load on Big AL.
Peace and Blessings : )
HH. you have some great comments.
Thank you Nancy. Please post more often.
We need new posters to help bring in helpful
opinions. Great to have you here. : )
I do not post often at all….but when i read Al’s comment I actually thought he was being sarcastic??
I do ot post here often at all…but do try to keep up with the comments. When I saw Al post that I thought he was being sarcastic??
Which post are you referring to Dan?
If there is a deal done with Iran it will swamp the oil market with a vast new amount of supply.
If there isn’t a deal done with Iran then China will simply do a deal with Iran and there will still be a glut of oil supply as those currently supplying China’s oil – Saudi, Qatar, etc – lose a huge volume customer.
Either way the oil supply is going to increase dramatically in the coming months and years.
I would have thought the play currently would be to look at which companies will profit from upgrading the ancient oil infrastructure in Iran. I suspect, as part of the Iran nuclear deal, will be a deal on oil and, as part of that oil deal, will be a deal for US/UK and French companies to be awared Iranian contracts.
So which oil infrastructure companies are close to those Western governments AND are politically acceptable to the Iranians?