The direction of the conventional markets
Hour 1:
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Hour 2:
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Hour 1:
- Segment 1: Dan Oliver, President of the Committee for Monetary Research and Education, discusses the fallacy of yesterdays employment report.
- Segment 2: Chris Temple of The National Investor, Big Al and Cory get an update on Idaho North Resources from President Mark Fralich.
- Segment 3: John Kaiser of The Bottom Fishing Report discusses his thoughts on the direction of the conventional markets.
- Segment 4: Michael Belkin of The Belkin Report discusses the situation in Hong Kong.
- Segment 5: Avi Gilburt, Founder of Elliott Wave Trader, views the conventional markets from a technical perspective.
- Segment 6-7: Gary Savage of Smart Money Tracker, Richard Postma, AKA Doc, and Chris Temple recap what happened in the markets last week. The round table also discusses if a major collapse is right around the corner.
- Segment 8: Glen Downs, Chief of Staff for Congressman Walter Jones, asked the question just how long can a good thing last?
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Yes its time for the bulls to crawl under the rock and hibernate. Wake up in 7 years and all will be OK. Meanwhile one can pump until he is blue in the face, but only to look silly.
I have been really busy with writing and interviewing. Very sorry about that but youngest daughter has also been visiting since Wednesday.
My first comment in a few days is to you Rev. – Great comment above so God Bless.
I agree. We do not sell bullion. Kind of interesting the difference in our comments from sellers. Exercise care!
I can understand the anger at seeing the market value money like gold or silver being devalued by a downward manipulation of the fiat currency price. People think of price in terms of the official currencies which are based on debt and not equity like monetary metals. We feel cheated! We are in what the hebrews call a Shemitah year where all debts and credit must be forgiven or paid off otherwise god will curse the nation rather than bless it. This is a seventh year sabbath that was instituted after the exodus by god.
In the light of that physical metals would seem to be the best asset to have if all debt and credit instruments like fiat currency must be wiped away. Also if the shemitah was officially instituted real estate mortgages could not have a duration of more than seven years to finance and pay for a house. The implications for real estate prices are that prices would have to collapse to the point where a home could be paid for in equal to or less than seven years. Real estate as an investment would be discredited and high prices seen as the genocidal curse that it really is. https://trutube.tv/video/28436/The-Smemitah-9-25-14-to-9-13-15
GreT comment Steven!
Gary, those were fantastic comments you made today on multi-year cycles for the commodity sector. You got my vote. I also think we cannot base our estimates of what is to come next based on the fundamentals. That stuff just goes out the window at times like these.
Bird…………I would have to agree with you on…… “cannot base our estimates on ..fundamentals”…………..j
This is a classic case of beating the grass to startle the snakes as Asians might say.
The short sellers are trying to scare people into selling their holdings cheaply so that short sellers can cover their short positions. Now is the time for physical longs to refuse to sell for any price not strategically beneficial to them.
Gee, STEVEN JOIN MATTHEW AND GO TO THE FRONT OF THE LINE…….in common sense and intuitive foresight….yeah!!!
Man, you are one tough, battle hardened gold bug, SD!!!! Looks like the Deep Woods Off is not going to work on you after all. We need the industrial strength stuff now. Either that or we nominate you captain of the Titanic and send you sailing!
SD…..is the Man………Bird, you have to appreciate his conviction….j…………
He might just be the lat bug standing when it is all done. But not to worry, his kids will get the goods! The last refuge of the die-hards once the profit opportunity has died is that they all tell us it’s for their children. Because…you know….they were not investing in the first place. This was all about a generational wealth transfer!
HE AND I , will be holding hands, …..to steady each of the other up……….I still hold silver from the time before….1970’s…..I figure, the next time , which will be the third, should really be a WOPPER………………..
You, see, that is the problem with your approach Bird and why I have distanced myself from this forum.
Time and again, even when contributors are expressing their personal opinion and not launching an attack on you, you have to find a way to say something that is designed to degrade them personally, insult them or needle them.
You have said in the past that you would stop, but the reality is, you don’t. And the board is the lesser for it. I can understand when you defend yourself against a personal attack from others. But the truth is, you stir the pot here as much as anyone — probably more than anybody.
As for me, I am fine with acknowledging when I am wrong on a call. It has happened before and will happen again. I personally differentiate trading with long term investment and generational wealth transfer.
I think it is a fine idea to accumulate physical precious metals as an insurance policy against central bank folly. Whether that insurance is cashed in while I am alive or transferred to my children after I am gone, is fine with me. You can call it a rationalization if you want — I call it trying to secure a future for my family.
I’ve got silver that I bought at $3 and change, $10 and $20+. I could care less that I didn’t sell it when it was $50. Wasn’t the point, at all. I didn’t think that I was going to get another chance to buy silver below the cost of production. As it turns out, I was wrong. But in a way that benefits me, since I can use current savings and cash flow to add to the position. Which I am doing.
With regard to the mining stocks — those I treat as a trade. However, given the carnage in the sector, I was not inclined to profit from the short term moves that were made over the past year. That turned out to be wrong. Whether it works in my favor in the fullness of time, we shall see.
Bottom line for me… the debate regarding gold and silver and stocks (outperformance or underperformance over cycles or portions of cycles) is going to rage until the fiat currencies are debased out of existence. And on that day, the debate is going to be over.
Obviously, that is a matter of debate and its obvious where I stand on it. Let it play out and see what happens.
Eric eloquently spoken. ‘Nuff said but thankyou!
Get off it Eric. If you quit this forum that’s your own problem so grow up and don’t blame others for your actions. Secondly, I did not attack anyone. You know very well that one of the most common themes amongst gold-bugs who lost money is to rationalize their losses by stating one of two things…..
1) This was not an investment. It is for insurance purposes.
2) I don’t invest in gold for profit. I only buy it for the kids.
Sorry if it stung you that I called it exactly the way it looks. If you go back to when gold was in a steady upward rising pattern after 2001 though, all we ever heard about was how much everyone was making and how cheap they bought it. Rah rah rah…and no mention of the kids EVER.
So in a nutshell it is utter BS that anyone did not buy gold with the expectations of profits and gains. It is exactly why the most product was purchased near the top (greed) and the most is usually sold at the bottom (fear and disgust).
In the intervening days and months it is just one rationalization after another that people use to excuse an asset they bought at the highs that has not performed properly or has led to outright losses.
You have got to grow up and stop being a blamer, man. Gold is serious business.
I agree with Andrew, Eric. Again, thank you and nuff said!
Count me in Eric too, Andrew and Matthew
Thanks Bird. My thoughts exactly, as you know!
Bird, I totally agree with you.
Also, Personally I believe that most of the posters have little or NO physical metal.
good one Bobby…………I bet you are correct ….on the assumption ,concerning your bet………….
Hey! I resemble that remark.
I resent ever posting on this forum 10 months ago or so. I have found all
I can do is proclaim this forum to be an exercise of entertainment and
laugh as I’m going along. The characteristics of some people here have
a serious identity problem always bragging and shoving. Insistiing their
views on others and its persistent. Selffish behavior that you couldn’t find
elsewhere but it exists here. Not only that if one says that all gold miners
should be shut down and gold is such a wasteful metal to society why would
anyone keep company here with this kind of behavior.
Not only that the analysis here by everyone is as about as bad as gets by only
few exceptions. Furthermore, I’m in gold as a long term investment. Not going
to trade. The theme here is you can pick the exact bottom just before the explosive
gold move. Couldn’t be further from the truth. Few, if any will ever live to see the
massive profits from gold because they are so concerned with any paper losses.
These are very volatile assets. Only a real nitwit would think you can time it perfectly.
Unfortunately most of you are. Few exceptions.
Won’t waste anymore of my time here. Its been entertaining and had many laughs.
The behavior of amatuers is hallerious not because they are amateurs its their claims
to almost knowing what their doing. That I find extremely funny. Especially in gold.
Times never change and found all the BS to be true at every gold bull market I have
made money in. The bloggers will continue their bad behavior at every step gold takes
up or down. Going up the attacking will only increase.
GOLD IS GOING UP. Won’t share the analysis because its nothing but a waste of time.
And I dislike the abusive nature of those that post here. Few exceptions. Last time
it turned in Dec. 2013 no one here can get even a clue of the main reason. To this
day they don’t know. They assume gold will remain calm because of the last few
years trading range. Nothing else on the radar screen a 200 trillion bond bubble
thats ready to pop. Dollar is not on solid ground with a budget deficit over 1
trillion and counting. World war and financial collapse do historically tango
together. But no, gold has 1000 written all over it. The odds are it could happen
but very small.
I WILL SLEEP GOOD A NITE KNOWING I’M NOT A SUCKER FOR BEAR GOLD
LIES. That’s all they are is deceitful cowardly lies. By the useless bloggers
on this site with identity problems to boot.
When the expected happens and its coming hard assets will be bid up
to the moon. Its coming as sure a night turns into day.
WELL, HAVE FUN WITH ALL YOUR BS. Done listening to it.
You will be back. Especially when gold goes to $5000.
HH Great post.
We needed your well-reasoned perspective. But like you I’m getting to want to leave this site entirely, preferring to place my trust in the King of kings and forgetting all this nonsense once and for all. The trouble is there are some really great folks here too, so we’re presented with a dilemma. Added to which some of us feel a real love for Al, knowing him to be a man of God who (quite rightly) wishes to see the good in all. But not the first time his site is being sabotaged, a bit like those ancient wreckers who in lighting flares loved nothing more than to lure ships and their crews onto the rocks. Those wreckers stand as a metaphor for some people today, who in waving their lamps as though to offer insights, have deeper motives for making endless mischief.
Al and Cory having spoken earlier about things getting out of hand, you know the problems already. So unless things are properly addressed, the mischief makers will play havoc on your site. They are easily identified by their inability never to laugh at themselves, or admit to being wrong, while flattering only to deceive even as they can as easily revert to bouts of unspeakable rudeness.
If you can’t rid yourselves of such people then might I suggest that another forum be created…not of gold bugs per se or anything to do with that stupid expression, but of folks who can respectfully share in how we negotiate/invest in the journey of life. Quite outside PMs there are many correlated issues, all of which have raised discussions before, and which I for one value for their different perspectives.
As it is, sorry but things cannot continue for me in their current form., A
There are at least 50 people regularly here representing a bullish-only perspective on gold and other precious metals. In opposition to the multitude of wild claims of conspiracy and boundless enthusiasm for an asset that has been in relentless decline for years, I stand almost alone in offering an alternative perspective.
So what my posts represent are the flip side of the coin and one that is not represented forcefully anywhere else. You can ignore those comments if you choose. As you please. But that is my position and it is not intended to sow discord but only to provide balance and an alternative viewpoint.
What I notice is that most of the hardened gold-bugs would prefer to massage each others distorted views of gold and silver without having to hear anybody else speak out against their theories.
You who consider yourself Libertarians, Patriots and defenders of free speech and Amendment rights are actually amongst the first to try to shut down the contributions of others who are in disagreement with your political agenda and gold-centric thesis.
As you clearly have an inability to mount a valid case in rebuttal to any of my comments on gold, silver, politics or policy you have instead resorted to threats of withdrawal. That is your choice but it strikes me as incredibly weak if you cannot even be bothered to engage directly in debates of topics that can sometimes be heated.
I will add that I was seriously repulsed by your own anti-Semitic commentary Andrew however I shall remain to fight against the ignorant comments you have left. In the meantime, Al and Cory may bar me from the site if they think it is in their interests to have a one-sided dialogue on precious metals and politics and other subjects. That is their prerogative and I would respect that.
It is really all the same to me at this stage anyway as I have proven again and again that I am a better analyst on metals than any one of the posters who come here daily and if those insights into markets, policy, prices and trends are of no value then I don’t care to be here anyway.
In short I believe you to be a jealous and resentful man whose spends more time complaining than being involved in the topics. So I bid you farewell whether that means Al bars me or you leave and do not come back. Same difference to me.
Ciao Andrew.
One last comment Andrew. And this one applies equally to Heavy Hitter and Eric. It has not escaped my observation that the complaints against those who represent a bearish outlook on precious metals have increased dramatically as the prices of metals have fallen.
Almost all of you who object to the viewpoints I offer are primarily metals oriented. Eric for example has previously admitted that virtually all his investment portfolio is miners and metals. He is not diversified in that sense and so he has lost a great deal of money. It suits him well to claim he won’t post here because of me when in fact it is his investment losses that preclude the good feelings needed to be comfortable talking up gold and silver.
What I am saying in other words is that you have directed your attention and frustrations with the trend in the market at those who will not get on board and sing from the same hymn books as the choir. This is typical and expected behavior during a down cycle this serious.
You perhaps resent that I have profited even as you experienced losses. A corollary to this might be the social backlash against immigrants during a time of declining economic fortunes in any given country. Blame for poor outcomes is rarely accepted by those who are indigenous but rather it is vented outwards at others who appear to have seen success and benefits during the time of your loss.
I am very sorry for that. Very few of you here would listen to my arguments that the dollar was about to rise even though I presented a long list of proofs that should have alerted you to the chance I was more than just correct in that assessment. Instead the whole board argued against me rather than give even a small consideration for the case I presented on a rising dollar.
Likewise when I warned you that QE would end there was but a single person who was convinced I was correct and that was Rick Ackerman. I was in fact proven right on that call and so getting it ahead of time meant a substantial change in how we have all viewed the markets since.
Similarly I have made calls on the Euro, gold, silver, inflation rates, the market and many others that have since proven accurate. I do not get it 100% and nobody does however the large trends were all foreseeable and I did catch them. I am constantly baffled that most here refused to even consider what I was trying to tell you most days even when I could present a very good rational case.
So you are losing money on your gold/silver investments. That comes as no surprise to me as your investment outlook on metals is very inflexible and long-only. You should now expect more downside though and a long period of consolidation before there is a hope of a price recovery.
Many people meanwhile have abandoned this site over the past few years.
You would like to imply it is my fault however that does not jive with the facts. The truth is that ALL of the major sites devoted to precious metals investments have seen declines in readership and participation for the past 48 months.
But that is because gold has ceased to fire their imaginations, has not excited them nor offered a reason to be attracted to the discussion as the market has declined for so long now. Most people have simply moved on, disposed of their holdings or are using their time beneficially to engage in the equity markets which were until recently actually moving up.
In the meantime, you may well be successful in convincing our host to bar my posts but you will not have made any progress except to perhaps prove your feeble dominance in a sad eviction. Gold will keep falling as will silver and nobody can do anything about that until positive sentiments return to the market again.
We are now in a long term secular price decline that has driven most people away from this sector, bull and bears alike. That is not my fault. I merely discuss the facts as they appear. I believe gold blog participation levels will keep falling until there is a turnaround in the fortunes of this market. That is an expected outcome at this stage as capitulations and disgust leave most people unwilling to engage any longer.
So don’t blame the messenger Andrew. I have been very accurate over a long period of time on sector performance whether you will admit that or not. You could have made money listening to me instead of getting your back up and taking a position akin to biting off your nose despite your own face.
You either want to make money trading or you want to cry about others who profited. Make your own choices. But do not blame me for your losses or lack of flexibility during a market decline so severe it is setting records.
Yet another slur BM saying that either Bob Moriarty or I are anti-Semitic. Al has challenged you on those slanders already.
Your posts will soon amount to1/4 of the total submitted, so many of which are worthless given their bile.
After reading other comments above, I haveto make one thing perfectly clear.
I am not rationalizing when I say that I buy precious metals for the very long term. I truly could care less what the directions of the fluctuations are.
I make okay money in the stocks because I guarantee that I understand them. I do make mistakes, and big ones as was the case with Premium, but overall I am okay.
How could anyone leave the “Greatest Show on Earth”. You can see suckers born each and every day. PTB
Andrew, just read your post considering leaving.
Always unfortunate when someone does, but might I suggest a Christian forum?
I entered one looking for some opinions as to why the Torah was included in the Christian records and not the Talmud. Upon reading and researching the Talmud the answer became obvious, as well as understanding clearly why Jesus took issue with the Pharasses and led me to question how the heck could Christians even consider supporting these people.
In any case, they did not appreciate questioning so the site became pointless for me.
Other than that, they seemed to have lively discussions.
I never saw any discussion about moneychangers tho.
I would have to rename the ship and sail closer to the equator.
Steven, a more appropriate military tactic for the current gold war is “appear strong when your are weak and appear weak when you are strong”. A typical example in military is the north Korea. Sun Tze ‘s art of war has it as one of the major tactics.Unfortunately this work well with two armies but less effective when facing a mob which new members born every day. I like history and see too many examples.
Agree, Steven. There is a bubble in bearish sentiment growing. People should buy or hold, NOT sell (should be obvious!).
Yeah, I noticed the same sentiment growing…..back at 1550!
Birdman… are you being sarcastic with this comment or you concur?.. :)…
The market does not generally trade in metal, it trades paper in the name of metal that might not even exist. Far better to pay cash for the metal and take delivery and dispense with the dodgy paper trading.
Another great comment. Thanks again Steven!
You guys really, really crack me up. I mean anybody can be a genius when the market DOES EXACTLY what you think its going to do! WOW, what genius! Listen, the market will turn when the market turns…..then I can GO BACK to being a genius and you guys above can join me….I WISH, just wish – I had specific examples to cite so-called experts on this site that said we were gonna break out so and so to the upside – etc, etc…we didnt…not yet anyway….HERE is the deal: I CAN STAY SOLVENT TO SURVIVE AND PROSPER – I truly hope that most here can do the same….hang in there people!
Nice post SD. ‘Sides dollar pushes sterling down so that’s fine by me.
SD, Jessie Livermore had some terrible times as a trader. But he stood on his own two feet. That’s what owning gold is about. He also said be right, sit tight. My feeling is that this gold bull is a long wAys from being over. All the short term prognostications given on this website just feed into fear. Be long, sleep!
Great advice………………JERRY C…………………….
J…..don’t mean to blast the website, it is what it is, it has a purpose. Just have to pick and choose what you read.
no problem here…………….appreciate the input…………………..j….
Yep!
You count short-term as being in years? Silver crashed four years back already!
Bird,
My view is longterm. And I’m talking holding the physical, not the miners. And i think i know where you’re coming from.
I’d argue that over it’s history gold and silver have never crashed. They have co-mingled with other “real assets” over time, things you really need to survive. That’s their history. That’s a fact. you don’t need a chart to understand that. In the last couple of generations a new idea has been forced into the publics perception that you HAVE TO invest in order to survive. The 1 percent have become very rich off of this movement.
Now, this is where the crashes come into play when people focus on $ prices of gold and silver. It is MY OPINION that families could focus on establishing ounces and passing this of to their children and over generations families will establish significant wealth. Who says one has to invest?
Try working the math on a family accumulating gold ounces, silver too, over the last 100 years. The numbers are amazing!! It worked for thousands of years.
And there is nothing wrong with investing….just remember, brokers make you broker….stand on your own two feet.
ditto Jerry C………………..
You’ve got my vote Jerry. For majority of people, wealth preservation is more important. Investment make sense only when you can overcome the wealth sucking machine from the very top. Following the crowd is not a way to get rich.
Well when you put it like that, then yes, I understand completely. Had I set aside just a fraction of income all these years to acquire and keep say a 3% allocation to precious metals regardless of the ups or downs I would still have a mighty big stash and it would all be in the black. Of course, life rarely works that way and over the years I sold the hoard for other better purposes. Sometimes to cover a debt when I was much younger, other times to finance the house or the last time it was to get out before the big fall came. It never really occurred to me to hold it for life though since i wanted the benefits of the gains here and now. But if I did follow your system it would have been one mother of a stack today!
It would be a major cultural change for our country to save like this. Unfortunately, our youth are brought up in government institutions that teach irresponsibility when it comes to finances. A geopolitical writer/financial advisor named Richard Maybury wrote a series of books in hopes of getting them into our schools teaching students about real wealth and real history. Not sure he’s had a lot of luck with it but his newsletter has been quite successful over the years. Everything that is going on today he talked about 25-30 years ago. If I recall correctly, Bob Moriarty posted one of his writings a few years ago. Bob said he’s offered many financial newsletters for free. He said at that time that Maybury’s newsletter was the only one he paid for! Not bad!
Great insight, Jerry C!
It crashed Bird, but let’s compare the price to, say 2004 or my last major purchase which was $14/oz.
It is all about why a person is in the arena!
The microscopic fake paper silver price crashed. The real question is what do you have to pay to get real silver?
Great post, thanks SD Mark.
Segment 7: Again, excellent comments Gary. You were really hitting them out of the ballpark this weekend show. I agree with you. You know, my biggest concern is that the high dollar (and inversely, low commodity prices) are going to lead us directly into the fist of the major sovereign defaults beginning middle to late 2015. That is all part of the larger picture where debts finally get reconciled with reality and it will be the pressure point where bond buyers will no longer accept such absurdly low returns on bond issues. In other words, we can already predict the bottom of the rate cycle coming into view next year and we should brace ourselves to be in the safest of investments as that time approaches. Commodities at the bottom of their price cycle do indeed offer an enticing place to move as the year progresses. I am not just talking gold either. In the meantime we also need to seriously consider being in the strongest and most durable currencies and markets. For me there is no question that is USD and US equities for now but Canadian dollars will also see their day in the sun a year from now. What begins to matter most is the solvency of nations, the depth of their economy, export resilience and how politically stable they are. I like your timing on commodities actually and will look at it more closely. Great interview!
The dollar is parabolic and could reach 89-90. I believe we should then see a correction. The volume in the gold charts is picking up for the first time in a long time. October could be the capitulation everyone is waiting for—–one of the reasons is the fact so many PM stocks that are selling for less then book value could plunge further. If we get the catharsis in the next 4-6 weeks, I believe we won’t have to wait until spring. If we don’t now and happen to rebound, then spring looks like a good possibility. My gut tells me it’ll be sooner then later based on the dread shown on the current charts and the fact that you will not necessarily get a bounce off the bottoms as we saw in 2009. A lot of damage has been done and more will be present if October is as ugly as it could be. However, having said that; I personally hope October is ugly so we can rid ourselves of the plunge in the PM stocks. It will be the opportunity of a lifetime. I’m watching my sentinel stocks to indicate to me the bottom. Next week will be a key week—-if we break lower on gold, the odds are the catharsis will be the “sooner then later” scenario. If we hold then the chance is that we hold the “triple bottom” and the piper might have to be paid later. Just remember: NEXT WEEK IS HUGE for the the PMs and the PM stocks.
I agree next week is going to be important. We are sitting heavy on that triple bottom right now today. What happens next is no doubt going to be fascinating but I am pretty sure we won’t trade sideways!
We are not only sitting on the triple bottom which is heavy but some other important technicals as well.
Yup, it is a fascinating picture all round. These are exciting days.
Bird are you open minded to your target hitting 968/1000 in the near term or this is a 2015 target?
The reason I ask you is for the reason doc is 100% correct that volume is increasing while miner continue down.. Im open minded to your target just before elections.
The spike low should come sometime in early 2015 and I expect gold to remain flat to listless until the stock market finally has its date with destiny sometime late that year or early 2016. Just my opinion this weekend. Richard could be right though that we see a repeat of last January where gold miners start to move as soon as the New Year gets underway.
Richard, the opportunity of a lifetime was to buy silver under $5.00 and sell at near 50. That happened 2 times in my life…are you predicting it will happen again?
Bobby…………third time is a charm……………………………lol…………….j
Bobby, if you believe we’re still in the longest bull market ever for gold and if technically you believe we’re in a multi-year “cup and handle” technical formation for silver. I believe both odds are good. All I know is that we’re going to have future opportunity like we haven’t seen in years for the commodities. If we move appreciably lower in gold next week, I believe we’re going to have a parabolic blow off for the dollar on the upside by the end of the month and a reverse parabolic “blow down” on the PM stocks.
Im leaning 75% towards this and my timing was within the first two weeks of october. Meaning 20th/21st of october not counting that first 3 day week. We are thinking much alike. I think it happens this year not next like gary and at times you had stated.
I really am encouraged that you feel it happen now.
No one can predict anything. It’s all hindsight. I will say this, we have a good possibility of re-entering levels not seen in quite sometime. If that means silver at 15? silver at 8? etc then if the expectation is silver to 100 someday then it will be your third time in your life. The saying goes, things happen in three’s.
$50 in 1980 is NOT the same thing as $50 in 2011 by ANY measure. The price action back then was not as similar as people think. Looking at the speed, percent increase, std deviation, etc., of each move, $50 silver in 1980 was a true bubble while $50 in 2011 was not.
It’s a good thing that far more people agree with Bobby than me right now, or we’d be in for a much more protracted correction than what we have already had. As it is, many will be looking to sell any coming strength —big mistake. Miners will beat the metals for a long time.
Yes it could happen but I would not bet on it. When silver made it to $5 the first time, it could be produced under $1. When it gets to $5 in early 2000, it took around $6-7 to produce. Now the cost is several times of that. It is not how much harder to dig it out of ground, even though it is true, but mostly the currency has lost a lot of value. Returning to $5 now is as hard as returning to $0.5 before.
Hi Doc,
Have not spoken to you for sometime. I’d say we need to break 87 first before that 89-90 but your correct on that. I like the fact that your kinda now leaning a little towards now rather then later for final bottom in gold. As you know im leaning towards this month or latest next month for a final bottom. So yes id also like to see it drop very hard.. Possibly a 50/100 dollar down day consecutively.
Doc if we do have a bounce what of the 1188 or 1180 what target are you looking at? 1220?1250?1275 my choice, 1300+?
Also we are not to far from 52 weeks lows and long time support levels for many many miners including gdx and gdxj, with that said do you see a possibility of the triple bottom holding and up we go? With this event I would expect you to have a bounce only then down into next year.
Always a pleasure to have your thoughts.
Glen, my wife is hustling me out the door at the moment. I’ll answer you when I get back.
Glen, after looking at multiple charts this morning, some thoughts are forming. If next week we don’t solidify, the triple bottom in all probability is out. We then drop like a stone over the month and move to 1050-1120 on the gold price. That should also hammer most of the PM stocks to levels that place them way under book value. Correspondingly, the USD should shoot parabolically higher (which should make sense). It’s then difficult for me to believe we haven’t put a bottom into the PMs with the stocks already at lows for them. At that point, we should get a nice move off the bottom and then see where they go after that. Those are the 2 potential scenarios 1. maintain the triple bottom 2. Take it out and then drop vigorously for the month. As I’ve mentioned before, next week should be the omen for what scenario takes place. Looking at multiple charts of the PM stocks, I believe #2 is currently the likely scenario.
Doc,
As always thanks for your insight. I tend to agree..with scenario 2.
I am kind of leaning the same way Doc except I think the gold market might just string everyone along sideways for months once we have broken below this long term support.
You make an excellent point about the dollar by the way. It is going parabolic. We saw a similar move starting in November 2009 that lasted about six months which was followed by an equally steep decline that lasted until spring of 2011. Basically the rise and fall totaled maybe 15 months at an estimate.
In the 1960’s if you lived in The US or Canada well paying jobs were plentiful and easy to get. The middle class was thriving, real estate was cheap and the debt was small. People weren’t afraid to protest there displeasure with government policies (Vietnam War protests) because we knew that the economy was sound and the future was bright.
Now all I see are the underprivileged and the wealthy. Part time jobs with no benefits are the norm, people are afraid to express themselves because they know that as bad as it is it can get worse for them. We don’t have a voice in government because they have made us their servants through social hand outs. The government carries on with reckless printing and spending, and increasing it’s reach into our lives.
This is only part of the picture but it is a recipe for disaster and like the titanic it will end on a similar note.
Highly recommend you read Peggy Noonan’s editorial in Saturday’s WSJ, Machine Gun!
If gold does get a big push down over the next 3-4 weeks then it’s going to retest those levels next spring when the CRB hits it final 3 year cycle low. Gold is not going to completely resist a multi year event like that.
Doc,
As we discussed last week, intermediate bottoms don’t form until we see real panic. We are starting to get that now and if gold breaks $1179 then it will enter the nightmare stage. Intermediate bottoms that occur while commodities are in decline heading towards a three year cycle low tend to be even worse than normal so expect to see 150-200 comments per day on the site as gold is making that final ICL bottom. The number of hits on the site will skyrocket as traders search frantically for someone to give them answers or comfort during the final ICL.
We need to cordinate with Al to watch for the spike as that will be the singal the bottom is near.
Gary,
Always a pleasure to have your thoughts and cycles on here. Can you please explain your first paragraph as i am very confused?Are you saying if gold goes into nightmare stage and drops down to 968/950/1000 level we will somehow go up and then next year retest 968/950/1000?
thanks
Glen,
Gold isn’t going to resist the pull of the CRB’s three year cycle low next year. Even if we were to make a final bottom next month we would retest that bottom next year.
Gary, see my comments to Glen above. Next week tells the tale based on the technicals I’m watching. I’m drawing up my list of stocks to purchase if what I believe is going to happens does happen.
Best be prepared. I might do the same (just in case!).
Doc, I guess even this hard asset site has no committed bulls even in the guest level. It is amazing. So far no one has convincing fundamental reasons to be bearish but they keep telling me fundamentals don’t matter. I heard it before 2000 crash and 2008 crash.
Lawrence, the bulls are just grazing right now—–they may have to graze longer. If we get a catharsis move down, we then should see a countertrend rally for 2-3 months. Then we’ll see if we move further down towards next fall or essentially develop a sideways pattern. I once made the statement that at the latest we should see 1900 in gold by 2019—I still believe that.
I think it is hardest to put price and time together. I cannot do it. I remember when I started in PM investing gold was 400 and silver was $7. Nobody even believed that gold could reach 1000 and silver above 20, except John Embry at the time. I feel we should focus on value. I am wondering, if one think silver was a good buy when it was 40, why does he hate it when it is $16. I haven’t heard anyone complaining about 60% discount.
Everyone tries to be as accurate as he/she can.
A guy buys a new fridge and sticks his old one out in the yard with a sign ‘Working order fridge – take it for free’. For 3 days no one touches it. So he replaces the sign with – Working fridge take it for $50. The next days someone steals it.
They walk among us and reproduce: Ain’t that the truth!
good one A……………
Haha, yes, good one!
Matthew if the gold price had been re-set as agreed upon by over 50 countries back in February you would have seen gold at nearly $3000. War has been openly used by the U.S. to defend the dollar. So says Jim Willie whose hour long post is as always, in my opinion, hugely informative.
http://beforeitsnews.com/economics-and-politics/2014/10/dr-jim-willie-on-caravan-to-midnight-with-john-b-wells-its-only-gotten-uglier-2469706.html
Thanks for the link, Andrew. I can’t believe how short-sighted so many people are! On the other hand, if they don’t understand the big picture, their short-sightedness isn’t so unbelievable. Most think everything is just business as usual.
Yes am in full agreement. There are just so many black swans that all talk of double/treble bottoms is lost on me. Technicals are one thing but the unforeseen as maintained by the credulous continues to beggar belief. Best, A
Matthew, we are under the attack of ultimate currency intervention strategy and we can choose to give up, follow the trend and tough it out. An analyst who used to have a prof who worked in PPT and his prof told him after a few beers that the most effective currency intervention is to gather all the strength and make a trend long enough so your opponents become your friends. Very true. I remember I read that may last year.
I say tough it out ……AND DON’T LET THE BASTARDS GET YOU DOWN
That makes sense, Lawrence. They manipulate reality in order to get otherwise smart people to doubt what they know. The process ultimately makes supporters out of critics.
Very little real information here. Jim Willie is a nut and a liar. The second half of this, he is really bad and he sounds so childish at times. He states that two children are abducted from Disney World each day for use in the shock therapy human robot program and that the laboratory is located below Disney World. A total of 7,000 children have been abducted at Disney World according to him. And that Brittney Spears, Lady Gaga, Madonna and Johnny Depp are really human robots. What a wacko. And you can tell that even the interviewer thinks so. Too much of what he says are more like rantings and ravings and conspiracy theories. Much of what he says is at best speculation but he states it like he has first hand knowledge as if he was there during supposed secret government conversations. Oh, and the amount of profanity. Only Immature people use profanity to this degree.
I agree J.Miller – some of Willie’s stuff is way off wacky – Californian drought deliberately created by the neocons, like the tsunamis off Japan and insect sized drones delivering arsenic jabs!! I think he’s got something on Angela Merkel however.
Andrew,
Thanks for agreeing. I was honestly expecting someone to adamantly defend this guy. I am sure that he is not wrong about everything but he does make me want to read ZeroHedge and KWN more often.
Agree with you about Jim Willie. Even I think he got something right but it is hard to tell difference with a lot of his exaggerations. It is why I am not listening to him. I want to stay focused on facts not fiction. Maybe one day his words come true, I will change my opinion.
Agree with you guys about Willie.
Ya gotta wonder why he would say stuff like that.
I wear tin foil but geez, long headed aliens are more believable.
LOL.. nice one.
It’s interesting how I was ambushed and flamed for bringing up $950 gold and .90 cents dollars 8 weeks ago and now everyone is on board pontificating the death of gold..
Now everyone is a genius and thought of it first.
It is a good reminder to all of us that the herd is easily manipulated.
If a guy like me and others who pointed out a looming USD trade can twist an entire blog into believing imagine what the big machine can do… Not one person brought up the USD. You all talked about the heavy manipulation by “Da man” or some Evil overlords and monsters from the depths all manipulating gold markets.
It was nothing of the sort. It was the USD exploding through resistance.
I am constantly amazed by trend. I am also aware that you never fight one…
$950 is certainly a real possibility with a .90 cent dollar or higher.
I mentioned capital flows 8 weeks ago and got the flame action now it is the talk of the town….
I would advise all of you to do one thing… Stop taking bloggers words as gospel and do your own thinking.
Do your own work, stop looking for easy and quick answers, and think macro…..
You all focused on manipulation instead of opportunity elsewhere and missed 100% moves in the general stock markets…
I’m calling it here because it’s important for everyone’s survival…. If you stay too long in the USD trade you’re gonna get killed again..
I have a real bad feeling that the USD is now gonna be “da pump” from all commentators.
I am looking for an exit as the herd jumps on board. I’m telling you now so you don’t accuse me of a pump and dump.
I will exit exit all USD trades the moment I get a signal to.
Ken, very appropriate. The USD is a trade and not necessarily a new trend. The fact that it is parabolic from the beginning suggests that. When the correction comes it should be vicious. It appears to have more room to run and when it reverses, it’s possible the corresponding move in gold should be interesting.
Maybe Doc…….Meanwhile you can send my Canada Dry c/o Birdman in Africa PO Box, middle of nowhere in the countryside. Be sure to include a return address since none of my mail ever arrives and the soda will surely come back to you!
“MAYBE DOC.”..you dont have the GUTS to hammer DOC!? You are a pathetic loser….Doc is ABSOLUTELY right and alll lyou say is maybe…..Birdman stay in Afirica……..please!…and I dont need a “RAH-rah” MAN LIKE TO HH…..to back me up……
Umm, SD, I was just playing around. You sound drunk though.
HUHHHH!!????
He does not drink alcohol!
Ken,
This is a very good post. Im not sure of your track record as i honestly have not followed you or read you much. If true the good on you.
I will say this, myself you can go back and read months prior, I had us dollar going up. Im still of the thinking it has wheels still.
Lawrence,
NOT THAT MAKES SENSE!! Finally, a rational…reasonable explanation..makes PERFECT sense….
There used to be investments
now there are trades
Absolutely. I am playing a bounce before tax loss selling (yes, that time is approaching). Take a profit and get the hell out. The best investment is to get out of debt. And no, I am not out of debt now!;-)
My theory on gold; there is a big stash (170k tons?) somewhere that is being tapped but the PTB know it may still not be enough.
Dan ……BEST ADVICE OF THE ENTIRE WEEK……………..”get out of debt”…..you nailed it……………….bravo………………………..j………
Good advice and it is in my culture to avoid all debts. However, It is hard to buy properties without debt, particularly in Calgary. I think mortgage might be the good debt which you can claim tax if you use it to buy rental property. In a sense you run a small business on the side.
THAT is just working capital….making earnings………………
Has anyone noticed that in the past several months a few more financial articles seem to be based on the assumption that we still have perhaps close to our original 8000 ton stash in Ft. Knox/NY? And if that be close to accurate, any thoughts on how that might affect the future of PM’s? Perhaps the mystery will continue as a State secret……….
I am very skeptical of that. What is the purpose of the state secret if they are as they supposed to be? It is not like it is some weapon your enemy does not know. All the government’s behaviors suggest the contrary.
DU,
GREAT TO HEAR FROM YOU!!…GO BULLDOGS AND AZZZZZTECS!
Not “Bulldogs” but Cougars!
Ken, you obviously do not read this blog often. In fact I have been dollar bullish for a considerable period of time. Well before that currency took off like a rocket in early May. I also posted in detail why it was about to rise and what the considerations were behind it’s move.
NOBODY agreed with me then. Some still doubt there own eyes!
But read for yourself just one of my many posts on the topic and you might just see that there were indeed people on this site calling for a dollar rally BEFORE it happened.
—————–
On May 9, 2014 at 12:07 pm,
Birdman says:
“That’s pretty amazing…the dollar just screamed up” ~~ Richard Postma
———-
Come on Doc! This was way too easy. It was not amazing that the dollar rose. It was in fact entirely predictable and to prove my point I will refer you back to comments I made on this site over one month back telling you exactly where the Euro would get stopped out (at 1.40 precisely) and with added comments about where it would go next (down). By inference I was telling you about the dollar and in fact I made a number of comments specifically stating that we would see USD rise (not fall as most of you keep insisting). Now, I don’t expect you to throw the Bird a bone here or anything but I will ask you to take into account that the Euro decline now presents a hazard to gold. I think you are a terrific technical guy by the way. What I don’t think anyone here gets well is politics. The dollar MUST rise because that is (official) confirmation that serious inflation does not really exist. In fact though, we all know there is much more inflation than the records state. Several points higher in all probability and some report the real rate could be as high as 6% or better. So when we confront that fact against a backdrop of historically low interest rates the spread is actually fearsome. So you might wonder, why does that matter that the dollar MUST rise? And the answer to that question is the same one as why rates will be held below (real) inflation for a considerable period of time into the future. In a nutshell we cannot pay our debts and we sure as hell cannot afford the costs if interest rates rise too much. Look, these are all connected and intertwined. We need stealth inflation and we need it to carry on for a number of years or our problems will not be manageable. In order to achieve that it is expedient that the dollar not show too much weakness as that will signal deliberate devaluation. At the same time, inflation numbers cannot be acknowledged at their true rates and this is why we will get low core numbers even as energy and food rocket ahead off the public’s radar. Sp politics determine that the dollar look strong even if that means it has only strengthened relative to Euro weakness. This is why Mr Draghi will talk up interventions and QE exactly at the time our own QE is winding down. You have got to appreciate the beauty of this program. We get inflation even when “officially” very little exists and we get dollar strength despite an obvious devaluation. So USD goes buoyant. You owe me a Canada Dry Mister!
———————————
On May 9, 2014 at 2:03 pm,
RICHARD says:
Bird, the fat lady has not sung yet—-one week doesn’t make a trend. After we posted last time I believe the dollar dropped lower and I didn’t ask for my Canada Dry then ( but I may ask for it in the future.).
————————
Hey Doc……………the fat lady did sing! You owe me that Canada Dry now for sure!!!!!
bIRD ……did it ever occur to you that Ken might NOT READ YOUR POST…..(just joking)………….j………….
Steady OOTB no sharp sticks into the nest!
just trying to shake his tail feathers………………………….
Ken wrote “Not one person here brought up the USD”. Presumably he reads the threads to know that. Since he was wrong though then he is just blowing smoke. That is what my post was telling him….eg…..get your facts straight.
sORRY bIRD……….I did not read ALL the post………..
Neither did I …….and I wrote it!
Bird,
I had dollar up wti oil down.. Do you not remember?
Bird, when it goes lower some day, are you going to send it back.
Hey, one bet at a time mister!
Yes Al Seg 8 -the new game in town is to buy to let cars for folks who can’t afford the minimum down payment. Soon it could be buy to let electric toothbrushes, vac cleaners….the imagination runs riot.
When I was first married real estate started going much higher and at this time I turned to my wife and said, “do you see those renters across the road, they are now the new poor.” Being an investor I knew what I was really seeing.
Speaking of property DT – Here in the UK we have a stealth tax called Stamp duty. Buy a house for upto £250k and you pay a further 1%, i.e. £2.5k Buy that same house for a pound over that sum and you pay 3% onwards and upwards. So a house costing £250001requires £7.5k. House market here due for a major correction once interest rates kick in. Many homeowners are getting by on interest rate mortgages only.
The next trick will be 50 and 100 year mortgages…………
land leases for 99 years , and rent the surrounding air space for a quarter.
They already have them in Japan Jerry.
Government intrusion into any market always ends up failing, that tax only fuels the speculative bubble. The added revenue becomes self defeating, as the government bubble pushes the private sector bubble even higher.
the renting of cars to unqualified persons, has already happened in the USA.,,,Just sign and drive….
Very sad and very true Andrew!
Again ref Seg 8 Just like in the U.S. the improved employment figures here have been saniitised by too many burger-flipping graduates plus well over a million pensioners now working short term contracts, and not because they enjoy doing so, but so as to meet the shortfall in their (sometimes non-existent) pensions.
Jim Rickards has to be onto something.
Ever notice all the older folks working at Wallmart, MickieD’s; Target; and, the list goes on.
Yes, they are stealing all the good jobs from the youth!
I am just doing small trades in the general market after cashing out profits yesterday. Just as easy to make good trading profits with less cash taking advantage of the high volatility now.
Gary,
are you 100% sure the next major crb cycle low will happen next year and not now?
I mean have you ever been wrong on this kinda stuff where the years may vary?
Glen,
Sure cycles can warp. Unfortunately there is no tool to predict when a cycle will stretch or shrink so i always start off by assuming the cycle will run a normal duration.
Thank you for clarifying that. These are some mind testing times.
Gary, if we get a bounce like your cycles predict what’s the duration in length? 2?4?8? weeks etc before the turn and back down.
Usually counter trend moves top in 3-6 weeks. It will be determined by how long it takes the dollar to drop down into it’s intermediate cycle low.
Thanks.
good for me I just started to listen to Chris Temple. I think if I listened to his doom and gloom over and over for the past 5 years I’d be flat broke living in a cardboard box.
Keylime, Chris is one of the best out there. A really smart guy with a good reputation for judging markets. He is just sounding frustrated right now because the market threw him a major curve-ball as the dollar rose abruptly and it ended up costing him performance on his energy trades. So basically he is pissed. Rick on the other hand has had an excellent month with his long bonds/ short DIA trades and you can tell because he is pretty upbeat the last while. Win some and lose some I guess. I never got my predicted summer stock melt but I did catch the dollar. Guess we can just try our best. The market is a damned Rubics cube most days but after following these guys for a long while I have learned they more often than not come out on top despite setbacks along the way.
I can’t agree Keylime!
Gary, link doesn’t seem to work. Maybe its just me.
Well. I read the first hundred comments……opinions, opinions, opinions.
Informational content going to about zero percent.
Just my opinion. !!!
Dr. Paul on ebola, the President lying on TV about his briefings on ISIL, when he was, in fact, warned prior to his re-election were interesting, but not here.
Conflicting opinions about where gold is headed not so interesting to me, because I am not a trader.
You saying all those “facts” in the past about gold going higher were more helpful? Ha Ha Ha!!. Come on CFS. What did you expect?
Don’t confuse fact with opinion, Bird.
New York Fed Gold Stock Tumbles 15 Tonnes In August:
Published: 02-10-2014 18:05
Every month the Federal Reserve bank of New York (FRBNY) publishes the amount of gold it holds in custody for 36 foreign central banks and the IMF. After a significant drop in July of 24 tonnes, 15 tonnes were withdrawn from the vaults in August. Germany is the only country, I believe, currently repatriating gold from New York. I think most withdrawals year to date have been shipped to Frankfurt, but do not know for sure.
CFS, I think there was an article confirming your suspicion, it was title something like Germany accelerate gold repatriation. The among totalled 37 tons
That is interesting CFS. Had not heard that one before.
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/images/charts/goldetfholdings20140930.jpg
http://www.hardassetsinvestor.com/images/charts/silveretfholdings20140930.jpg
I do not understand the divergence of GLD vs SLV behavior.
Louise Yamada comment from yesterday on the Financial Sense Network
“We think that the gold bull market is over for the foreseeable future. That does not mean we can’t get rally’s back to 1300 but I think that its at a very critical level here not only because its been support for almost two years at 1200 but also because its at the intersect with the 2005 uptrend and I think that is very critical because a break of that will suggest that the ten year trend is now over”.
Financial Sense interview with Louise Yamada. — Gold comments at 25 minute mark.
http://www.financialsensenewshour.com/broadcast/fsn2014-1004-1.mp3
She has a point and I generally agree—-however the secular bull is still in place as long as it doesn’t take out the 200 month MA (IMO). With the commodity move down getting long in the teeth, I would aver the gold bull has not yet been skewered. By the way, the uptrend she is talking about is what I referred to an above post as being another very important technical that is heavy along with 1180 gold. It comes in around the 1150 area. I wouldn’t be surprised if we challenge it in the next 2-3 weeks.
And there it is Richard. That is Goldmans call. Might we then infer the real message they sent was that the intersect of the 2005 uptrend with 1150 has actually been telling us all along that the gold bull is dead once we hit their lower target for the year?
I know i have not made many friends here by proclaiming my belief we are currently in a bear market for precious metals. But my conclusions are based around the larger trend for the dollar, rates, Euro policy and inflation expectations. You have however indirectly confirmed my belief by mentioning a possible failure at both 1150 and the 200 day MA.
We are in a gold bear already. All we await now is the guillotine to confirm it.
Of course gold has been in a bear market, no one argues against that; but it’s been a cyclical bear not a secular one.
Btw, Doc mentioned the 200 MONTH MA, not the 200 DAY MA.
In my opinion, the secular bull can hang-on by its fingernails as long as it remains above the 2008 low. However, for practical purposes, I don’t want to see it go much lower than $1100.
For those who can’t see the chart above, it shows the 200 month MA at $766.
200 month MA!….ok, that slipped past me undetected. We are getting into pretty subjective territory there don’t you think? That has got to be one of the thinnest reeds in the river to grasp onto and be saved!
Even Richard notes “IMO” which is another way of acknowledging others might strongly disagree. Seems a big stretch to me so I would put no stock in using the 222MMA.
Louise meanwhile stated that she though the bull was over and that the ten year trend was threatened by a breach of a critical level. I strongly agree with that comment. We are literally there now which means gold faces total abandonment by the major market participants.
It should be very clear by now that it is the dollar that has substituted for gold in the mind of the market. And it is the dollar the vast majority of investment decisions are being made around as it is actually a speculative tool that can magnify returns in the multitude of existing products available.
You cannot do that with gold.
We need to step back and consider just what it means to have Euro parity as well when reflecting on where we hold our investments, in which currency and what those securities might be.
It is safe to say though that impacts will be felt in everything from bonds to stocks to real estate and also that being in the wrong currency or investment vehicle could be very costly when a current differential of 25% exists between the two major currencies.
That gap will in all probability be closed in the coming two years. It therefore represents a substantial consideration to how and where you are positioned through 2015 and 2016. How much the dollar moves up is unknown however as already noted it has made a relative 7% jump already and that is quite substantial in such a short time frame.
Bird, I don’t know why Louise focused on the uptrend that “began” in 2005 when the secular uptrend really started in 2001(after the 1999 low was retested). Her trendline was indeed broken over a year ago but the real secular uptrend is nowhere near being broken.
That does not matter Matthew. The fact is that gold cannot and will not succeed as long as all of the major Central Banks are all in the mode to increase liquidity and expand the money supply.
Every last one of those major parties and the governments associated with them must be assured that gold does not put a hole in the hull of their boat and therefore we should not be surprised to learn that all of them will actually be working together to hold prices down.
I would suggest that Louise knows that on an intuitive level if not factually and that she does not look at support levels as a place for gold to recover but instead looks at key technical levels as a place from which we see deeper failures.
The group of CB’s do not have it in their interests to support the small segment of the investing community that is interested in gold for gold is indeed the enemy of all currencies. It is a fallacy for anyone to assume that China or Russia or Iran or anybody else has a special agenda to sink the dollar.
They are all on the same side where currency stability is concerned!
And dollar stability is therefore sought by all parties as it is the central world currency of trade and exchange. So efforts to suppress gold and silver prices may actually be globally endemic on that basis and there is not therefore any hope of a change in direction until the world economy has sufficiently healed to allow gold to float free again.
Louise understands this and knows that sacrifices are made in the interests of all people and economies. Her advice is valid and shows she is both pragmatic and sensible.
Do not fight the tape nor fight the Fed and you will have better results.
I completely disagree.
Shaking my head… I was right…….We ARE in a bear market for metals.
Make that a SECULAR bear for purposes of clarity.
YAMADA WAS SCREAMING 2100 GOLD 4 YEARS AGO…YOU KNUCKLEHEAD..SHE WIENT THROUGH ALL THESE CHARTS GYRATIONS…GUARANTEEING THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!! YAMADA IS A CON-ARTIST….NOTHING MORE…..SHE WOULDNT KNOW A MACRO-GEOPOLITICAL FUNDAMENTALS IF IT DRILLED HER RIGHT BETWEEN HER EYES…YAMADA …PATHETIC..SHOULD HAVE KNOWN BIRDMAN WOULD BRING HER UP……SORRY…I FEEL BETTER NOW DOC!!!
Marc, just like most technicians, she was wrong in December, too.
I thought you were a technician 😉
Most technicians pride themselves on their ability NOT to use their brains for anything other than their charting when assessing things. That’s not an approach that suits me at all.
To me it is really fascinating that whenever gold prices and trends are really under threat that some of the posters suddenly revert to all uppercase characters and shouting.
USA Watchdog:
Assumption 1. We have an effective system to detect bombs being taken on aircraft.
Assumption 2. There are a significant number of Islamic Jihadis who wish to kill Americans.
There are a sufficient number of Jihadis in Africa who are prepared to give up their lives to succeed in performing the act of killing Americans, even at the cost of their lives.
Given that the incubation period for ebola is up to 3 weeks, does this not provides enough time foe numbers of Jihadis to become infected with ebola and travel to the US, where they might with the help of friends in the US, succeed in infecting many Americans. I can think of many ways of doing this. E.g. with friends in eating establishments, infected jihadis spitting on food or in drinks. There are many, many ways.
And we know that even with a hospital test there are up to at three days between being able to pass on infection and any display of symptoms. We are told body fluids have to be transferred, but with intent, that does not seem difficult….just needs planning.
Just thinking.
There are News reports that Turkey is allowing unimpeded movement of ISIL fanatics around inside Turkey and across its border with Syria. Also aiding in movement to EU countries. So why is no person calling into question Turkey’s membership of NATO?
Turkey is now effectively similar to Egypt after the Muslim Brotherhood took control, before the most recent coup. Except that in many respects Turkey is the gateway from the Middle East to Europe.
Just thinking.
Keep on thinking Professof. Great foos for thought!
And then I listened to Ryan Puplava today. He notes the obvious that most others have overlooked. The strength of the US dollar is actually great news for the US. Forget about exports as being such a drag on growth as others keep asserting and recall instead that the US economy is 70% consumption oriented.
D’oh!! Why didn’t I think of that? Of course dollar strength is good in an economy driven by shopping. Good news for electioneering on too because imports come cheaper…because fuel costs are dropping….because food inflation is going to die…because America just got a massive gift in the form of buying power for its people.
And as an aside, this is also a gift for Chinese manufacturers who have been struggling with excess capacity. Were we not all wondering where the boost in income would come from?
Well there you go folks. A 7% rise in buying power is just the ticket that we all needed and it will be much higher by the time the ECB finishes its bond buying program. I don’t recall where I read it but another poster noted this coming Christmas should see good sales and rising consumer confidence. And why not…..7% is a big increase!
So we will see higher GDP, improved corporate revenues inside the US, support for the Chinese economy, a wealth effect that impacts every single person in America and better prints on a wide variety of credit and spending metrics.
So sorry though, but gold is going to be a casualty in all this. Now go shopping!
We should get Bob M on and enlighten him…”Awe it just a correction” “The USD is used toilet paper” LOL.
Yes we should get Bob back. He can call the bottom in gold again for the third or fourth time. Ha! I never tire of this game! Ding Ding Ding……
And that is why killing gold is good for business……….
Funny you mentioned about the positives of the dollar. In fact, I plan on buying a couple of retail stocks on Monday whose technicals look pretty good along with large insider buying. There are 2 energy stocks that CEOs have taken huge positions in recently —-however, I won’t be purchasing those since they’re unaware that the technicals look horrible and their stocks are preparing to roll over.
Maybe they got a loan to buy their own shares Doc, herd that was happening, something to do with bonuses.
Killing gold will be god for business if I time my purchase of hgd correctly.
If not its all bologna. lol
Don’t worry bb….there will be plenty of chances again is you miss one of the rides.
———
I was just thinking back to a board discussion from last year, by the way. The topic was hedged versus unhedged miners and what it meant for the business of mining. You know, there is really a disaster shaping up right now for the smaller producers and midcaps who went naked into the wilderness on the assumption the gold bull was still intact.
But the gold bull is actually dead and many of them never hedged production which means a few will soon be producing below cost. The short version of this story is they are going to go broke eventually or be forced to shut down.
Bonanza for Wall Street breakup gangs, M&A’s or discount buyers? Perhaps. Who really knows. There is going to be some uncomfortable squirming in a few board rooms once gold breaks below 1190 and stays down though. Explain that to shareholders why it was not prudent to hedge back at 1350 or 1500 dollars!
Cory, we should really follow this up. Who has hedged? Who has not?
I mentioned the very thing to Cory in the past about the hedgings. After October, I have a feeling there will be a lot of phone calls from bankers to certain mining CEOs.
Good to hear you are on it Richard. Some of these companies have waited too long such that they are ALREADY producing at a loss or near to it. They cannot hedge at this stage even if they wanted too because that just locks in their losses on a continuous basis. Just a huge gamble that is at risk of not paying off. We might just be very surprised by who closes their doors as a result.
A couple of Aussie listed stocks hedged some forward production a few hundred dollars higher than the current gold price, coupled with the now stronger $US & falling $A this has helped them in the short term.
Aussie miners are often notorious for hedging.
Sometimes to their detriment on severe upturns…just look at history.
This maybe for survival this tine around though…lets see.
Good point Bird, but from my recollections miners were un hedgeing their positions.
Cant remember which ones but I think they were large caps.
Actually, I think they paid a pretty penny to get out of hedging.
Exactly bb. That is why they are heading for a world of hurt now. No idea where they take their advice from but it could not have been Goldman since Goldman said gold was going down, down, down. Guess they were all following KWN the whole time.
oops, “good” for business, doubt if god has anything to do with it.
Probably not BB!
Doc, noticed you mentioned 1900 gold about 2019.
I like to hear that, I am hoping my accumulation pays off between 2020 -2025.
I started out thinking 2020 a few years ago, but after reading a multitude of articles I stretched it out a bit.
bb, that figure is based on a long term uptrend line. However, it wouldn’t surprise me if we take that out in the next 6 months. We may have to settle for the 200 month MA and then figure out a longer stretch. Regardless, I’ll start buying the metals again in the next 6 months when I believe we’ve bottomed. I may start to buy platinum again since it’s gotten creamed and will move lower. I purchased palladium about 5 years ago at about 300 bucks and it hit 900 bucks a few weeks ago—-it too is coming down and will be a good buy again in about 6 months.
Gary,
I totally agree with your longer term forecast for the commodities markets.
It won’t be just shell shock in here for some when it hits….it’ll be Mayhemic Destruction !
But out of that carnage will be opportunities we may never see again for decades (if ever).
….I’m licking my lips in anticipation.
Great weekend show yet again guys. Thanks !
Our pleasure, Skeeta!
All and everyone. What I dont get is that there must be a lot of real gold around to have all the Asian counties and other non US hate gold counties keep buying it and getting delivery. If the gold price is on sale how is it so availabel?
PS – Doc the best free advice out there. Thanks
Alan, supply is the question, how much is there?
Simple google will tell you there is a bit over 30k tons in reserve, but there are estimates of about 170k tons I would imagine in private hands, some estimates are well beyond that. Basically, nobody I have found actually knows how much is out there or more importantly available for purchase.
What I have been able to discern is all demand has been met, other than Germany getting its gold back and the reasons are debatable as to why.
Ive been following the gold market closely for about 5 years, the only time I have noticed or herd of delays have been due to minting capacities or pouring bars, never a shortage of gold, or silver for that matter.
Eric Sprott has repeatedly stated he doesn’t know where supply is coming from.
Guess the Rothchilds or Rockafellers don’t invite him to dinner and he isn’t a member of the illuminati, masons, Jesuits or any of the other powers in the dark.
I personally like the “long headed alien” theory.
More foil for my tin hat the better.
Pick up some extra tin foil for me while you are shopping bb! Mine is a little scrappy lately.
Thanks bb!
🙂
Everyone can argue about how smart they are and what will happen to gold, myself I don’t care, all I am interested in is how will the strengthening dollar affect the guy in the street who needs to support his family. What about the future of our economy, can we survive and improve our standard of living with voodoo economics, that being a huge debt and endless government intrusion and money printing, as well as perpetual war and welfare.
Well, if you are an American DT then this dollar surge is equal to a great big fat pay raise. But back in Canada and elsewhere in the world it will just feel like a tax got levied as imports priced in USD mean everything is going up in price. The only way I can see to benefit is to invest in the US and US markets as long as this major dollar trend is in motion.
If everyone else sees that too it means that the bull run in US equities is far from over and that capital flows into America will become a literal flood. That is also going to be self reinforcing so this thing has legs.
One really interesting aspect of it all though is that it means dollars will finally be returning to the US from whence they originated in large quantity and this factor should eventually drive a surprise round of inflation.
By the way, do you recall Peter Schiff’s arguments of some years back about how a flood of dollars would actually set off a hyperinflation? The basic nut of the idea was that the majority of USD resided outside the country and if one day those came flowing home there would be massive pressures within the economy as too many dollars chased down too many goods (assets in this case) and the prices of everything abruptly rose.
While I do not subscribe to the hyperinflation arguments I would caution that with so many currencies and nations going limp at once and with the advent of such huge capital movements back to America that an asset price explosion could well be in the cards. That would then put pressure on incomes which should start to rise sympathetically but it would also manifest in a return to higher counts on money velocity within US borders.
Lets keep an eye on that development! The only way to relieve the pressure would be for Americans to go on a buying spree of their own and in the process export the developing inflation right back out to the world at large.
Hmmmm…so maybe that is how a high dollar saves the world economy?
Short term most countries will muddle through but if this higher US dollar persists it will hollow out more of American manufacturing and China which is an exporting nation will have to decouple their currency from the dollar.
I’m not sure The Americans aren’t being duped by China and Russia, as a move to fight back economically by artificially propping up the dollar in order to destroy it. Remember we are seeing a financial war being waged against Russia and this could be them making there move with the help of The Chinese. Putin has shown his chess moves before and between the two of them one with manufacturing dominance and the other an energy giant, this makes The West look like a loosing target not a winner.
Good point about the strength of the dollar may be coming back to hurt us.
Agree, Machine Gun!
The dollar INDEX is barely at 85ish….plleassssseeeee!! Give it a fricken break..! Excuse me while LAUGH my ARSE off!…..:)…Birdman, all this is an ELECTION RALLY…..get it…no,probably not…your in Africa…geeez…
Yeah, the biggest dollar move in many, many years means nothing at all. By the way, Africa is not that far away when you are connected to the internet. Physical location is irrelevant when you are discussing ideas live with your peers around the world.
Thank God for that, Bird!
And PS….the dollar index is almost at .88 as of yesterday. You are three cents out of touch man!
The thought of Russia/China making a move in the currency war is interesting.
From what I have read a hyperinflation is actually a loss of confidence in a currency, I cant see that happening in the U.S., the people are just too ill informed, so inflation from those dollar returning to the states is more how I see it, but not a collapse in the currency.
Don’t know how or even if there is a connection, but Putin just put the Kybosh on bitcoin in Russia, after that announcement bitcoin has been tanking.
From somewhere around 550-600 down to about 360.
Maybe its just volatile I don’t really follow it, just happened to notice.
Also, Putin said they decided not to use capital controls, the ruble is dropping and the brics continue to work towards dropping the US dollar.
Maybe the US dollar going up does have something to do with Russia/China.
That would not surprise me a bit, BB!
Of the 170 posts on this weekend site, BM’s contribution to date totals 39.
Expect more!
There is no answer to your complaint because It is your problem if you have nothing of substance to add to the conversation. This is an open forum that allows comments on all the topics. I am sure you are welcome to add to the discussion if you have any ideas (other than proving your clerical skills at counting posts).
Andrew is a nobleman, he is like an Earl in England, in short he is “The Count”.
Besides Birdman the other day you were complaining that your posts were being ignored, all Andrew is doing is including you in.
Oh DT….groan!!!
There is a difference in the way we view things Bird, you saw Andrews comment as a complaint, I saw it as a statement of fact, and figured so? ok.
Then when Andrew said “expect more” I reminded myself to check back.
I noticed you changed your mind about Monday.
Birdman:
From a source that called the 2011 top. If your hanging with Bob M your going to be poor. Good thing we are not. BUY SPROTT hes cluesless too. My hedge fund has gone from 90k to 17k…
From a source that called the 2011 top.: “As expected, gold continued its slide, but with a
bit more downward intensity in recent days. As
such, gold is now testing some important lows at
just under 1200. Once gold breaks down from these lows we feel
it will head towards the 1000 support within a few months. We
are confident that gold will break down below these ~1200
Andrew,
Have you counted how how many times HH has posted on some days or on weekends? More than he needed to.
We can all get carried away J.Miller, but Bird lives for this site and consistently posts way more than the rest of us. Furthermore he does so to see just how many backs he can put up.
I don’t think that’s why Bird posts Andrew.
Myself is just passing time really, hope to catch something I can profit from.
But I like the conversations, even the ones not focused directly on investment.
I obviously feel you guys should be a bit gratefull for the contributions from guys like Bird.
The personal stuff wont profit anybody anything, but I think you guys should at least be acknowledging Bird bringing attention to profitable situations.
Here is further evidence of manipulation.Prices normally correlate with money flow.
Here the ETF money flows for last week in %millions:
Agriculture -39.1
energy -2,896.3
precious metals 119.1
industrial metals -26.9
Money net inflow to precious metals ETFs, but outflow in the other ETFs, which is a puzzle to understand without manipulation.
How things change. Looking back over some interviews I’ve bookmarked.
e.g. Sprott’s Oliver was predicting gold at $1,500 by Christmas, back as recently as Sept 12, less than a month ago,
And who was that guy predicting $2000 by the end of the year. I can’t believe some of the folks making those predictions. I look at the technicals and cycles and the odds are astronomical for some of their predictions.
Outlandish and ridiculous predictions are directly related to the benefits that can be gained by making them!!!
IF and when there is nobody (except the die hard) willing to tolerate such foolishness then its will stop (or at least die down to a trickle)
Bo Polny? I much prefer the 10k predictions. Sicnclair altho I understand it of 50k I hope not to see. Too scary. The ones between 5-15k remind me why I buy physical.
If history comes close to rhyming we should end up in there somewhere.
Most of the mines producing gold are poly metallic, so I guess the price could drop several hundred dollars more before they are faced with care and maintenance or foreclosure.
I wish all of u could see ur posts the last few months, experts on this site and all us amateurs and plot these comments vs the gold and miners. I don’t post much but I will tell you all whether short/intermediate or long term, all of those tops and bottoms are always, never ever different, with excessive bullishness or excessive bearishness and all and I mean all are demonstrated with numerous endzone dances. I will leave it at that.
Spectacular comment NYC….
I’ve signed off and there is nothing in your comments that can be further from
the truth. All your remarks last several months that i can remember have been
spot on. Great job thinking like a real champ.
If you haven’t read this article posted on 321gold, like they say and I agree it is a must read.http://www.theburningplatform.com/2014/10/04/uneasy-in-nyc/
nice read……………..thanks DT………..
FYI
The only guy that’s nailed it from 2011….
” Irrespective of short or even intermedi ate term rallies, we feel that both silver and gold will
continue to trend down for years to come. And
once interest rates begin to increase, we could
see some more intense sell offs in these metals.
Possible mini bulls along the way but don’t listen to the charleltons” … Bob M my busted clock is more accurate…..
Here was the summer call
Takea short position before you take a
long position. Some traders may
have been sucked into the (bear trap).”
Bob M???? is that you….
My point is VERY few have a clue what is going on and many just want to sell you a PM product….Eric S is that you…LOL
Commercials betting on big dollar decline
http://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/commercials_betting_on_big_dollar_downturn/
The latest news from someone has no agenda and no bias on PMs.
“Gold will see $500 maybe even $350. Gold sales people have an vested interest and they are full of sh*t” Be careful who you listen to….there will be counter trend rally’s and nothing goes straight down. BEST!
As no surprise the commodities bull ended years ago. The engine of growth was China and that’s over. They will be lucky if they don’t have a hard landing.
Its over in a big way. Crooks has it right. 9am on the 4th……
http://www.cknw.com/audio-vault/
Money is pouring into the US…and China has increased it US treasury reserve’s by 2000% Bob M is an absolute HACK. Find some REAL analysis from unbiased professionals with no agenda…
Off message and thanks to all you guys for what you do, especially on this weekend show.
Tempers have been somewhat frayed this past fortnight, and I apologise for any ill-spoken words uttered by me. The PM market is rattling not a few cages, and all I can do is repeat what David McAlvaney keeps saying – Buy when gold goes down and rejoice at the opportunity given. But if you’re already spent up sit patiently and if need be happily pass on your wealth to your loved ones.
In ancient times a king had a boulder placed on a roadway, and he hid himself to see if anyone would remove the huge rock. A number of folk passed by irritated that the king had made no arrangements for getting the rock removed. But then a poor peasant weighed down with vegetables arrives, puts down his load and painstakingly struggles to move the rock to one side. Eventually he succeeds and as he recovers his load sees a bag left where the rock had been. Inside the bag there is a letter from the King and numerous gold coins. The brief message was to assure the claimant that he was entitled to his reward, because he sought to help others without being asked.
I guess the moral of this story is Live without regrets, treat people the way you want to be treated. Work like you don’t need the money. Love like you’ve never been hurt, and dance like you do when nobody’s watching!
Or as Socrates once said – ‘counting only the wise to be truly rich, increase to us our store of gold!