Rick thinks the bad guys are winning at least today.
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C’mon franky give it a rest!
OK REV ! I GO SHOPPING ! BUY !
So brother Andrew,
Where you going shopping today ?
Ya gotta admit that purdy funny of Franky.
Ha..ha…even God has a good sense of humor.
Its going to be a good time in heaven. ; ) 24/7/365
Great commentary Franky, Reverend and, yes you also, Heavyhitter!
I can just see the Pope there with his trading screen buying the E-mini!
LET ME ILLUSTRATE ! THE VATICAN PLAG ! GOLDEN KEY SILVER KEY ! THE SILVER KEY IS THE TEMPLE POWER ! LUCK ! http://electingthepope.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/flag.jpg
Now YOUR NATIONAL SECURITY AGENCY ! THE SILVER KEY ONDER THE FEET OF THE ANGEL !http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Security_Agency#mediaviewer/File:National_Security_Agency.svg
Eve you only know how day play the world ! TV SUKERS !
And here I am thinking it was the Israeli lobby controlling the U.S. congress.
On and on we go bb…..I’m getting to ‘side’ with you big time! lol or give up!
Naaa, its all in how we look at things. I look at it as its better entertainment than a reality show.
I honestly believe the world reserve currency will change, when, no idea, but my guess is metal will have something to do with it when it does, so for me, its a 50/50 thing, Im right or wrong. lol
Keep buying the metal, guys. Control freaks (bad guys) are on the way out:
US Sanctions are the best thing going not just for Russia but for Germany, Europe, Asia, China, Brazil etc. They start to use their own initiative after 60 years of being in thrall to the dollar, thereby accelerating a more multi-currency world.
Andrew, with all due respect…we have been hearing this for years from those that know…… money to be made now is selective conventional stock calls…..could be years before the metals take off…….regards !!!
Hi Gator….You know how bullish I am on the metals , especially Silver well I am beginning to believe “THEY” can hold this market for as long as they like….Lets face it they are never going to run out of FRN’s so long as the FED exists…..How can any of the major banks go bust as long as the FED has their backs covered. They learned a lesson in 2008 .
How long will the world exchange natural resources for dollars printed limitlessly? That seems the constraint to me. Clearly the world is working on getting out of the dollar system. If it’s a slow process, so much the better for those trying to prepare for the transition.
Sure thing Gator.,A
I agree completely Gator. Remember back at the end of 2012? We had almost the same setup as today and all the chart guys were tracing out a pennant/triangle that was SURE to result in an explosive move up in gold.
Pretty convincing stuff that was. Lots of pretty lines and exclamation marks. Up, up and away…
But then 2013 arrived with a big fat dose of reality and gold plummeted all the way down to 1200 dollars instead. The chart fools were totally destroyed along with most of their followers and a handful of doubters laughed their guts out as they rode that sucker down to the bottom.
Or was it the bottom? We are still trying to decide about that all these months later as gold still languishes just a 100 dollars off the lows of middle 2013. I sure don’t see a big burst in price coming anytime soon.
To my eyes we are going to experience another breakdown as this pattern terminates and the reason I feel that way is that the Euro is continuing on its downward trajectory and taking metals and commodity prices with it. It should not come as a surprise to anyone here that a strong dollar is death for gold.
So if you believe as I do that the Euro is heading towards 1.27 and that the dollar is on a solid upward path you will also feel confident that most commodities will remain weak on this cycle and therefore gold (and silver) cannot possibly hope to see a breakout until the Euro itself bottoms.
The conclusion I have arrived at is that gold should be presenting a great short opportunity once again and that could be coming soon as prices keep narrowing along the band they are now following.
I would like Doc’s take on the US dollar. On the strength of 44 years of price action the USDX should have had a bull market since the 71 low in early 2008 (when gold first hit $1000). However, it has not gone far up, except to 90 at the end of 2008 and to 88 in 2010 on the Euro crisis. The bull market after the 1987 dollar crash was similar, it took until the mid-90s really to get going. If it is similar this time, USDX will go to about 100 in the next 2-4 years. Does Doc think it will do this? If not, why not because that would be merely following the oscillating trend channel of the past 44 years… It would seem an opportune moment for a USDX rally on the euphoria over shale oil and electric cars, endless energy independence, etc.
I reckon we have a good chance of gold under 1000 before this thing shakes out.
Yes Andrew, you should buy the one that is near the end of a record cyclical bull market and near record highs and sell the one that has been beat up for three years and just came off a 93 year low vs. gold (the miners).
2014:
DOW: +1.5%
S&P: +8%
Gold: +8%
GDXJ: +33%
Save the stock-picking for the sector that is heading much higher.
Ha! As usual, you put it in perfect perspective Matthew.
You bet your arse !!!
Perspective must be in the eye of the beholder GH because while it is true gold is up since a bottom in December 2013 it is also true it is down since it peaked March 2014. Gold in fact is currently priced almost dead center its past 14 months trading range.
I hate to prick the fantasy here but there is nothing to write home about yet and the odds are equally weighted that gold will decline sharply as that it will take off for the skies.
So before falling for the never-ending bull camps work on numbers and thus slipping into the mistakes of the past lets keep a few things in the back of our minds. Commodities have been getting murdered as a group and the dollar has gotten stronger. Not just gold and silver are suffering….it is almost everything in the commodity group.
The reason is the market has become overwhelmingly bullish the dollar. Mario Draghi’s clearly telegraphed intention to weaken the Euro lies at the heart of that general consensus and so this has become one of the markets easiest trades to make.
I simply cannot understand how gold people can continue to overlook one of the biggest headwinds gold currently faces nor can I appreciate how they don’t seem to have noticed it is the ECB policies that are the driver behind the weakness in most of the commodity sector.
Don’t fight the ECB might just be the mantra of the day. So unless gold is going to buck the big trend then don’t expect it take flight. Secondly, neither does it seem wise to write off stocks as Matthew seems to suggest because that trend has not broken down even as metals languish in a tightening price range.
In the meantime, if we do get a market correction (that hurts) I doubt it will benefit gold or gold stocks over the short term as both will get sold off during the rout. Maybe that is what the pennant formation is now telling us. These shapes can go either way of course. Gold-bugs always think they will break upwards but that has hardly been the experience the past few years.
Instead almost every similar pattern has resulted in falling prices and a break down.
I actually agree with you Birdman in that I look at the gold chart, and from a purely chart perspective I see the potential for 2012/2013 all over again.
I don’t see how it makes sense in the big picture. But I do see the big short position on the COT. And I’ve learned not to take much of anything for granted as far as timing goes.
That said, I think Matthew hits it exactly right in terms of relative value, and the stages in their cycles of the general stock market vs the precious metals and commodities. The latter have already been beat into the dirt. Not that they couldn’t get some more beating, but I don’t think they’ve got much more downside in them. Even in the crazy mess the central planners have made of the markets, prices can’t be totally divorced from value.
The metals and miners have made a couple of nice runs so far this year, and are now either taking a breather in preparation for a move…up or down. The weekly and monthly charts look bullish to me. So if we get a dive, I expect it will be short-term. After 2013 I’m not willing to ride the down-waves, so I’m on the sidelines. But for those with good cash flow, I think accumulating here is smart.
Matthew….I like metals as well as the next guy..but it’s been the same old story all year..sector heading higher…metals getting ready to take off…there’s no fighting city hall….go with the flow until a trend has developed and it ain’t there yet…..
Same old story? The sector is up substantially and good stock pickers are up far more. In my view, the action couldn’t be better. The best bull markets in this sector start with the miners -especially the juniors- outperforming the metals by a very wide margin. What we have seen so far, qualifies. At its peak this year, GDXJ was up 45% while gold was up 15% for just one-third the gain. Interestingly, as the year wore on and more people became more comfortable with the turning tide, the riskier part of the sector has widened its leverage-lead from 3-1 to 4-1, despite recent corrective price action (it is bullish that the riskier assets are catching an aggressive bid while safe gold languishes by comparison). As mentioned above, GDXJ is now up 33% while gold is up just 8%. Such leverage is only a good thing. It would be dumb to accept the risks associated with mining stocks if the upside wasn’t much greater than that of the metals themselves.
So, while most investors wring there hands wondering about new lows, the smart money has been more interested in finding ways leverage further gains.
The leverage that the silver miners have offered in 2014 has been staggering and has staggering implications for the future, in my opinion.
SIL and SILJ are up 23% and 35% respectively, while silver is up a miniscule 1.03% for incredible leverage of 22.33:1 and 34:1 (this calls for these: !!!)
Matthew……….you need to start your own hedge fund………….where do I send the check……………………….
Jerry, you send me the check.
Remember I give senior citizens discounts.
Also as a bonus… a good guys discount.
That’s if you’re a good guy ?
Do I get a double discount for being a senior citizen,
As long as your check clears our financial institutions.
Otherwise, our collection department wll pay you a visit.
However, we do go a little easier on seniors.
Thats in your favor. What else can I tell ya bud. lol
The Hedge Funds look like they will be on the wrong side of this trade Jerry. The only reason miners went up is because of how gold was performing at the start of the year. Some of the bloom is already coming off that rose though and should gold and silver decline as I now expect then mining stock should not be expected to do well as bottom lines get hit. I am not impressed enough by past performance in any case because what has driven miners thus far is pretty much built on quicksand and speculation rather than a good fundamental case for profits based on rising gold prices.
bird………..good food for thought……………
The bad guys are certainly winning in Ferguson.
http://www.blacklistednews.com/The_Mike_Brown_Shooting_What_You%E2%80%99re_Not_Being_Told/37333/0/38/38/Y/M.html
I love a good fight.
Builds lots of good strong character.
Thats what makes America great.
Or then again……..
https://www.youtube.com/user/TheAlexJonesChannel
Oh great the good guys are not going to war. Excuse me?
http://news.sky.com/story/1320514/cameron-we-are-not-going-to-war-in-iraq
The strength of the USD is the visible power of the bankers who skim off the largess of the public. Everything that threatens the world reserve currency and the fractional banking system that benefits a few at the cost of the many will be slammed by manipulation and propaganda. The primary alternatives to the USD are gold, silver, commodity-backed fiat currencies.
The only answer for the non-elite is to become as independent of the system as possible, because the system (every system) is corrupt. Assets physically held instead of in the system, hoping for derivative growth. The elite control the printing presses.
On another day I might agree JhPace but it is obvious the only things going up lately are financial assets so it is harder to make a case for commodities and gold unless you believe you are bottom fishing. There might be some merit to that idea. Corn and wheat look to be bottoming, at least seasonally. I am not sure of their future though given that the ECB has dreams of the Euro hitting dollar parity. There are going to be a lot of pressures coming that could in fact keep draining speculative money out of resources and into stocks and bonds for many, many months to come. I myself thought that resources would bottom this summer but I feel much less confident of that today. We are seeing deflation open up on the commodity side of the ledger. It is exhausting listening to all the blather about inflation under such circumstances. The futures charts are damning though for the past few months. Prices of most inputs, food, metals, softs and energy are all in decline. What is that telling us?
Korelin Economics reports will predict gold going up no matter what the reality is…Total waste of time this sight…I don`t and haven`t listen to the guests on this site for a few years…just comment to let everyone know don`t waste yor time with Gary Savage and Bo polny and all the rest. HEY WHERE`S TRADER ROG? Oh I guess he realized he`s always wrong too and his website has been updated in along time
THE VATICAN CONTROLES THE USA !