Market wrap, alternative media around the world, and the deteriorating situation in the Ukraine.
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- Segment 1: John Kaiser, of Kaiser Bottom Fish, discusses geopolitical issues and their influence on the markets.
- Segment 2: Al and Cory talk with Rhylin Bailey about Eagle Hill Exploration.
- Segments 3-5: Bob Moriarty of 321Gold and Glen Downs, Chief of Staff to Congressman Walter Jones, discuss the role of the alternative median in the US and the topic of Ukraine.
- Segment-6-8: We devote the next three segments to the economic and investing issues with our expert round table. The experts consist of Sean Brodrick from the Oxford Club, Rick Ackerman of Rick’s Picks, Marshall Berol from The Encompass Fund and Richard Postma, AKA Doc.
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+ from al’s mailbox:
Mailbox quota exceeded
Which in box?
Lets open up…..PANDORA’S BOX….lets havs a look inside.
This not … CHOP SHOP TALK. either ……you said… AL…keep posting my stuff
BIRD…get back in here…AL…was just joking around with his hand slap editorial.
BIRD ..R…U…OUT THERE…….you and JJ …in …Revenge Of The Gold Bears…what..u ..tink.
Also everyone especially new posters…..post at your own risk. ..
NOW LETS SEE WHATS INSIDE PANDORA’S BOX…whats coming and worldwide chaos.
First off……GOLD TO DA MOON……ALICE…..$5000 gold is a done deal by 12/2019
Minimum. …$5000….MINIMUM. …PERIOD….get that featured guests and homies out there.
Furthermore I don’t give a ratz behind if gold drops to 1000. By this time next year….
GOLD $2500 MINIMUM………and guess what…..I don’t need any anaylist to convince…
…….ME OTHERWISE……not here…. with featured guests/anaylists and comments from posters.
Here’s whats the driving force will be…not in the stinkin charts or support levels.
Russia will not allow Ukraine to join NATO…..never. ..ever. ..never. not going to happen
Too much time to go into all the reasons because I hope most of you realize and know that.
When you hear peace…look out. Not going to happen.
We are entering period of time of financial warfare, cyber attacks, financial collapse, hyperinflation, and very possible nuclear war. I’m sure its a certainty. …the latter.
WHAT CAME FIRST… THE CHICKEN OR THE EGG OR $50,000 gold and the apocalypse.
I think you’re gonna get it all in one nice packaged gift. We all are.
Now when you guys are done debating where everything is gong and
being subject to negative talk regarding the precious metals that its a
total waste of time. Until the apocalypse rolls in…. want you to know im
long and strong precious metals. If gold drops to a 1000 has no affect
on me. Why…its going to bounce off that number like a rocket out of hell.
To all my fellow gold comrads if you can ride it out like me you will be a
precious metal winner investor. The rest will go down like flies. We have
about 2 months here that could be ugly. We could also have a meteoric
rise. Don’t listen to the anaylists because gold is going into a big bull market
the likes world has never seen. The end of this decade we could see $10,000
gold.
Sorry, won’t be answering replys. Just stay long and strong ignore the noise.
WISHING YOU ALL GREAT PROSPEROUS LIFE.
YOU GOTTA BE IN TO WIN…….heavyhitter….
Going back to my normal life. My portfolio is on cruise control.
THE BIGGEST GOLD BULL MARKET THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN…is here.
not going to listen to anymore noise.
Seems like we have the same philosophy Heavy.
One difference, I never let “the bastards get me down”.
And no person on this site is a “bastard” as they are simply critical and free speaking.
AL…we don’t have the same philosophy because …I keep my word.
I would never have a site with a forum with such poor standards.
Why waste your time improving the inherit quality of the forum
to attract serious investors and those who show a serious investor’s
interest other than goofing off attacking posters.
I don’t appreciate having been told by JJ…. someone pissed in my corn
flakes and other disturbing remarks. That’s not just critical that’s down
right nasty rude and appalling things to say to anyone.
Those are your standards. Why didn’t you tell everyone post at your own
risk because your apparent standards are well below any other forum
I have posted in. Would have never posted here if you didn’t deceive me
into believing that you would never allow that kind of behavior again.
I have no interest in the quality of the forum only to enjoy learning and sharing
ideas with investors. You also owe Bird an apology for even having that ridiculous
editorial because of what happened to Andrew. You never kept your word ..AL.
Right now everything has changed with my own investments going to forums
especially one that becomes disfunctional where nothing can be gained for the
time spent in being harassed in frustration.
Thats never going to happen again. So apologize to Bird and go back
to the way the forum was. Nothing will ever change and the attacks
will continue. God Bless You AL and Wish You My Best.
No reply… I want to move on now. THANK YOU
But you needed to know we do not share the same philosophy whatsoever.
We will look at some of the other forums.
Regarding Bird, which Editorial are you referring to?
Good luck with your new business venture. Sorry if I offended you by declining your invitation to be a part of it.
AL, my new business venture has nothing to do with anything. Partnerships
have never been something I am motivated to be a part of. I have always done
my ventures on my own. I’m referring to the editorial you promised to set a few
standards. Anyway, its all in my messsages to you. I know you’re busy but its very
difficult to keep repeating it. I think for your own credibility and the interest of
posters whom come here the standards must be set. Or things will rolls over again
to a low caliber environment and no one of quality will be here to contribute good
information to the forum. Take good care, AL….I really mean that. Do what you believe
is best. I have no interest like I said only to be in a decent environment.
God blessss you H ……….and good luck with your positions!
Thanks JJ…same to you. So far I like your debates here.
You bring up excellent points. We are all in this game and
its good anaylsis here that makes this forum special.
Take care and keep up the good anaylsis. Maybe I’ll see
you at gold 2000. lol …gold to da moon..JJ…..lol
Big Al, Mr Brodrick, The price of gold is substantially determined by the Comex and LBMA; it is totally manipulated at all times.
(As I indicated 2 + weeks ago, it would rise slowly for two weeks and it did.
Currently GOFO rates:
April 17:2014
One Month Rate Two Month Rate Three Month Rate 6 month Rate
-.118000% -.08800% -.05800% -.0060000%
Yesterday:
-1080000% – .08400% -.05800000% +.0040000%
This indicates increasing shortage of LBMA physical gold.
This implies that gold price downward manipulation is currently limited. (It cannot be knocked down very much without delivery default.) If it can’t be knocked down in price, it won’t be knocked down in price!
Thus expectation should be flat to slightly rising price for next few weeks, while the metals exchanges are searching for physical metal. (Precise dates for price knockdown attempts are always determined by weekends/options expiry dates.)
CFS, can I get a free copy Of your newsletter?
cfs……always provides great info………..
Thanks Professor
Gold inventory at the GLD:
April 17.2014: 795.14 tonnes. We lost another 3.29 tonnes of gold. David Kranzler stated that he thought we would have a run on the GLD once we had negative GOFO rates. I believe he is correct as there is no other place on obtain gold needed to satisfy the needs of Shanghai
April 16.2014: 798.43. Today we lost 8.39 tonnes of gold.
The following is a most informative discussion on silver:
http://blog.milesfranklin.com/my-back-and-forth-yesterday-with-john-embry
cfs..good article , & so are the comments posted below it…..Thanks.
CFS………..thanks for the post……….
cfs, excellent post. The first plausible explanation Ive read as to where the metel was coming from. (excluding the 170) I do believe the Chinese are smart enough to plan something like this
If this is true tho, we really could see some $100 up days as some have been saying for awhile now.
I havnt mentioned this before, as to why Im such a sucker for the Karen Hudas story.
At the end of the 2nd war there was a German submarine sunk off the coast of South
America. Forget which country.
Anyway, it was about the most advanced submarine the germans had built, it was built for moving cargo, when it was sunk, it was moving cigarettes.
Strange? Not if you know the germans were easily smart enough to recognise they would lose and were prepareing for it. The cigarettes? Low priority, they had already shipped the gold,jewls art medical supplies and everything else you ,can think of, the last trip would have ben more of the higher pesonel.
All the cargo? other than the cigretes, still missing.
Not too many people no of this submarine, but it fits well with Karens story.
This milesfranklin, I like this alternative explanation of where the metal is coming from
With regard to Ukraine, the most up-to-date commentary seems to me to be on zerohedge.com
They usually get their facts correct too.
cfs…I have to agree.
Indication of state of US death spiral:
WOW…………148 MILLION PEOPLE ON GOVT BENEFIT………
………………..1 OUT OF 6.5 people on FOOD STAMPS……..
There are more people on food stamps than the entire population of SPAIN..
WHAT A COUNTRY……………
And just think…….Things are getting better…..
AL……..NEEDS TO DO A STORY ON THIS ONE…………WITH THE CONGRESSMAN’S CHIEF OF STAFF……………
Be more specific Jerry and I will.
Yeh Jerry, but we still keep spending money overseas. Doesn’t the government care about Americans? Or perhaps is there an ulterior motive!
GREAT POST…………………
WE JUST SPENT $3.7 TRILLION ON……on WELFARE………..
Why is that a surprise? If you want the truth just take anything this corrupt administration says and reverse it…..to get the truth….the pontoon is a snake free environment…yea, right……. only if you don’t allow politicians to board…..
Gator……….you need to invite some politicians for a ride on the St. Johns, , no, wait , the water is not deep enough………
One further thought on Ukraine.
If I remember correctly Ukraine is the world’s fifth largest (by $ value) food producer in the world. (As well as carrying much of Russian energy in pipelines)
For this reason alone Russia will not allow the EU or the US to have any control in Ukraine.
Russia has proximity and the power to get what it wants.
Sure the US has the power to destabilize and cause unrest, but the US can gain nothing except problems and a war loss if it tries that stupidity.
I completely agree, Professor.
On April 18, 2014 at 10:26 am,
bb says:
I tend to agree with you Mathew, I just read an article saying finding replacments for silver is not as easy as it sounds too.
On April 18, 2014 at 10:45 am,
Matthew says:
Replacements exist but are prohibitively expensive.
BINGO!!!
You just hit the nail on the head.
That’s why silver is so cheap and will stay cheap!
I disagree with your conclusion, James. If supply keeps shrinking and demand keeps growing while while potential substitutes are much more expensive, the price of silver can and will go up easily. If a potential substitute was $40 or so, obviously silver’s upside would be capped, but this isn’t the case. Silver could go up 40 times and still not approach the price of its potential replacements. In fact, in many, if not most applications, substitution is impossible. In addition, silver is often used in such small amounts that a far higher price would have a negligible impact on the price of the finished good that it is used in. So, as Rick Rule likes to say about platinum, the price not only should rise, but it CAN rise.
https://www.silverinstitute.org/site/silver-in-industry/
I believe it just the opposite The Greater.
If a great body came in a pill we would all look like Atlas.
If profits came in a chart we would all be rich
Read between the lines.
We don’t live in the same world we did 600 years ago!
That’s true. Silver was far less necessary 600 years ago.
Once again I must post my fundamental bear case for silver essay,,,,
The Fundamental BEAR CASE for SILVER.
For centuries now silver has served as a medium of exchange, a store of wealth, an industrial instrument , a household utensil, and an ornamental heirloom.
And yet as we speak an ounce of silver hovers slightly above $21 an ounce.
The price would hardly indicate that this precious metal is indeed rare, unique, sought after, or indispensable.
And yet that is what we are supposed to believe?
I think not. Fool me once shame on you. Fool me twice shame on me.
The new siren call for silver, like the boardwalk carnival barkers, is the fabulous wealth opportunity silver has to offer for those savvy investors who have the patience to wait and the ability to see way into the future. Rubbish I say.
We are to believe that all these technological and industrial uses for silver will some day make it indispensable and by correlation outrageously expensive. Hog wash I say.
The nature of economics, business and technology in particular has always been to find a better way. A more practical way. A more efficient way. A more economical way.
This always has been and always will be.
Like the dinosaurs, new business models spring up, old ones die a natural death.
It is survival of the fittest. And this is how it should be.
Right now digital content management, 3D printing, NANO technology are a few of the latest technological innovations that are creating paradigm shifts in the way we process, distribute, and organize content, how we manufacture, how we develop medical procedures, point of sale, identity security… On and on it goes.
Whenever there is a challenge, technology finds a solution.
Cheaper, faster, smaller.
This will never change
And so are we to believe that businesses, industries, governments will become increasingly more dependent on a metal that is becoming more and more rarer and more and more expensive?
Never, never in a thousand years. And funny that’s almost as long as it’s been.
Technology will find a way. No approaches will be taken. Synthetic chemicals will be tried, new business models will be entertained. Substances not even yet discovered will replace older materials. This is the track record of history. It will not change.
Does anyone really think if we need silver that badly, businesses and governments will let the price increase substantially?
Again no. They will keep it down. They will keep it affordable. This is only logical.
I would also add anyone who is predicting what the future holds, 10, 20, 30 years out is rather foolish. And anyone advocating holding onto silver that long waiting for some payout is all together mad.
Just look backwards thirty years from today. It want all that long ago.
Did you expect to see cars that drive themselves?
Did you expect to see storage capacity that can hold a cities worth of data in something no bigger than a grain of rice?
Did you expect to see content from the entire globe delivered to your computer in the time it takes to say “Google”
To think that 20 years from now will not be radically different from what we are living in today
is folly. Innovations, devices, platforms we can’t even dream of today will be common place.
To think that somehow silver will play a part in this is incredible.
Can silver play a role as a monetary metal?
Absolutely. It can serve in this capacity.
But again the price will always be encumbered by government, business, industry.
To sum it up –
If you like silver, hold silver. Enjoy silver in all its forms.
But to wait decades for some expected payout is not the best use of ones time or capital.
We do not have decades. We are not going to live forever. Life is too short.
I for one regret more and more each day I didn’t sell out at $48
I even wish I had sold out at $40. Even $30 is looking good.
Did I lose anything? Not monetarily, no. But time is money!
Everyone needs to do what they feel is right. But I hope this gives you another perspective..
Re: “The price would hardly indicate that this precious metal is indeed rare, unique, sought after, or indispensable.”
Are you serious, James? Even at today’s price around $19.65, silver is 94 times more expensive than copper. It is vital to our modern way of life. You should actually do some research before you conclude that it is not indispensable.
So you should have sold at $48. How does this fact have any logical bearing on your opinion of it at $19?
I appreciate your closing comments, The Greater. I especially like”If you like silver, hold silver. Enjoy silver in all its forms.”
I personally buy silver because I cannot afford to buy gold in large quantities. I am; however, rethinking this along the lines of purchasing physical gold in small quantities. The markups do seem pretty high though!
Hey james, if you could read charts like you can horses the silver chart in 2011 signaled time to sell when $45 didn’t hold…..I agree 1000% whats the point of talking about silver priced multiples from $19.64 when it can’t even hold $20…sooner or later one has to come off the crack pipe! and view reality which the market gives us everyday with its closing prices.
Peter Brandt who Al had on his show a couple weeks back highlighted the topping action in silver and I remember reading it like it was yesterday….everyone was looking for $70 plus silver I think I remember correctly Rick had a $72 target…it could have unfolded BUT when support fails its time to bail regardless of looking up to the sky!
April 24th 2011…Peter was bang on……..
http://peterlbrandt.com/how-do-you-spell-bubble%E2%80%A6s-i-l-v-e-r/
The Monthly chart of silver shows a key neck line off the 2008 lows of $8.40 across the Dec 2013 lows, that neck line support comes in at $19.00 and if April or May closes below $19.00…$18.00 will be THE test and if that doesn’t hold on a monthly basis….technically it puts the $8.40 in play as a possibility!!
Its great to suggest silver to da moon but in reality the above could unfold if those key support levels fall….IF being the key word, don’t shoot the chart messenger if it unfolds…and I would be the first to highlight higher levels silver would be looking to take out if it closed above $22 on the monthly chart as obviously it creates the opposite reaction to the downward spiral….$26 would be the next key level.
I should mention on silvers monthly chart since the April 2011 high the upper trend line resistance has not been broken once! it tested many times in late 2012 and again (almost) in March but silver is still trending lower for 3 years now.
I don’t disagree, but IF silver breaks down I think support at $14-$15 will hold. Even more likely, in my opinion, the breakdown would quickly fail. Readers just have to know that yours is a trader’s approach. Price is everything in your world, value comes first in mine. If support breaks, physical metal should not be dumped near a three year low after a 60% decline, in my opinion.
Btw, gold is much further from the same upper trend line resistance that you mentioned. Silver does not have to rise much to get through it.
Question to you Matthew, trading world vs value world….isn’t the closing price of anything the true measure vs what perceived value is?
Interesting comment, doesn’t have to rise much….that’s a typical grind lower bear market the bulls are always looking for the breakout that never comes as they look at $40 silver then $30 then $20…until a convincing Weekly close above resistance prints on the chart its a bear market with bulls relying on Hope.
Matthew,
Great job debating silver! These will be the same guys “crying” when silver starts – someday – to rocket higher. And it will. You know, I know. I have time – you have time – they must not have time – “They must have got caught in the old adage’ “The markets will outlast your solvency”…or something like that…….:)
I would not word that question the way that you did. There should be no “vs” since the closing price is a measure of perceived value. So the closing price does not measure the value of an asset as much as it measures the market’s perception of the value of an asset. The market can be dead-on or way off. The vast majority are way too bearish at lows and way to bullish at highs. How can the closing price reflect the true value under such conditions? Sentiment drives most people to act. Most do not even think about value. Why was Twitter trading at $70+ in December? What’s the argument for the current $45/share?
Now for a tangent. By trading assets in terms of other assets, one can safely and successfully ignore the dollar price. For example, fading out of oil in favor of gold when 10 barrels or less buys an ounce has always been a good idea. Conversely, one should start to dump gold in favor of oil when one ounce is worth more than 20 barrels. Of course, an astute trader can make countless shorter term trades on the way to such extremes. The point is, real valuations (real assets measured in other real assets) tend to move in a range that has no up or down trend. A trend only develops within the historical range as relative value moves from one extreme to the other. I, too, trade based on the dollar price in the shorter term, but at the end of the day, if you are not worth more gold, you have not increased your wealth.
There’s something for every investor in Jesse Livermore’s words. Here’s a few quotes that I like:
“The game of speculation is the most uniformly fascinating game in the world. But it is not a game for the stupid, the mentally lazy, the person of inferior emotional balance, or the get-rich-quick adventurer. They will die poor.”
—
“It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine–that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
—
“I can’t tell you how it came to take me so many years to learn that instead of placing piking bets on what the next few quotations were going to be, my game was to anticipate what was going to happen in a big way.”
—
“They say you never grow broke taking profits. No, you don’t. But neither do you grow rich taking a four point profit in a bull market.”
Matthew, being a former market maker providing the bids and offers I can tell you the closing price in not a perceived value but the value. Rick A I’m sure would agree as he use to be the market maker in options trading years ago.
I think this is where gold and silver investors get caught up in the religion of the sector as even when gold was $1900 the perception value was oh $2500-$5000 heck even today trading below the area all the experts claimed would never fall $1525 there still is calls of gold 1000’s of $ higher yet it can’t make higher highs evidence of a new bull trend forming it makes lower highs off $1525.
There is a big difference between day traders watching an hourly chart, let the flippers go crazy.
I’m talking about when key levels fall or breakout and create momentum for a period of time as I can assure you being short the miners when the 50ma fell back in Nov 2013 till the indicators all turned up in July was not a four point profit using a 2X ETF.
I’m sure even the great Livermore would be scratching his head using the emotional approach that what should happen WILL happen….I’d rather deal with reality in front of me with todays price, that way when resistance is taken out on a closing basis one can ride the bull as well, when the momentum is actually in place vs perceiving it will be.
No point in fighting the ticker, flow with it and be flexable vs stuck in a position that has the investor always seeking confirmation his underwater investment will go higher as they surf the net looking to hear what they want vs reality.
Its kind of like two fat people sitting on a sofa stuffing their face with pizza and beer misery loves company, lol
So if your currently long what price level would gold and silver have to be at for you to question that perhaps your wrong, I know heaven forbid, but it does happen to even the best of the best, just look at Sprott, Sinclair, Willie etc these guys have been dead wrong on the wrong side of the trade for years!
It looks like we disagree. Obviously the current price is the one we’re all stuck with at any given time, but no trader, market maker, or otherwise, is going to convince me that the market is always efficient or rational. I’ll stick with my own experience. I know a bargain when I see one.
It seems that you believe your way is the only way. This is common among chartists. As I said before, I’m not afraid of drawing conclusions based on multiple sources of information. For me, a “boots on the ground” understanding is important, especially in the high risk junior miners.
Have you heard of Stewart Thomson’s Pyramid Generator? It’s an approach that works even when trading illiquid $3M juniors.
ST’s Pgen, yes he posts once a week at Bob’s website 321gold….he is a real trader as he puts on far more trades in a year than I do.
Price is everything to him as well, as he states:
In the end, everything answers to price. You have various technical analysis telling you certain things might occur with price in the future. You have various fundamental analysis doing the same thing. Supply and demand “should” produce result X,Y,Z. But what effort have you made on price itself? Price is my gold boss. She treats me well.
The Pitchfork approach has the key gold levels nicely highlighted…one can see its not opinion related or perception of value its all about key chart levels which when they come into play the odds are very high of a reaction be it lower or higher.
And if pitch or ST’s pyramid outlook is correct with $900+ gold being short from $1350 will allow me to buy a lot more at much lower pricing….but I’m a very conservative trader so I will be willing to give up % gains when/if those levels are reached as before I get long resistance would have to be taken out on the upside to confirm a bottom or perhaps as james is realizing as well it may just create another trading zone between $900 and $1200
Pitchfork website: http://www.pitchforkplayground.com/support-resistance/
Stewart’s pyramid possibility $924 seen at pitchfork website:
ST’s Pgen, yes he posts once a week at Bob’s website 321gold….he is a real trader as he puts on far more trades in a year than I do.
Price is everything to him as well, as he states:
In the end, everything answers to price. You have various technical analysis telling you certain things might occur with price in the future. You have various fundamental analysis doing the same thing. Supply and demand “should” produce result X,Y,Z. But what effort have you made on price itself? Price is my gold boss. She treats me well.
The Pitchfork approach has the key gold levels nicely highlighted…one can see its not opinion related or perception of value its all about key chart levels which when they come into play the odds are very high of a reaction be it lower or higher.
And if pitch or ST’s pyramid outlook is correct with $900+ gold being short from $1350 will allow me to buy a lot more at much lower pricing….but I’m a very conservative trader so I will be willing to give up % gains when/if those levels are reached as before I get long resistance would have to be taken out on the upside to confirm a bottom or perhaps as james is realizing as well it may just create another trading zone between $900 and $1200
Pitchfork website: http://www.pitchforkplayground.com/support-resistance/
Stewart’s pyramid possibility $924 seen at pitchfork website:
Yes, ST always says “respond to price” –which I agree with, but I have to know if an asset or asset class offers a good value before I will buy it. You can’t just buy any old junior “all the way to zero” (as ST says) and expect a good result. The same goes for gold. I want to understand it so that I know how aggressive I should be in allocating capital at a given price level. Price alone is a poor measure of value. Those who just look at price, as most do, probably think gold is still quite expensive at $1,300 just because it’s still up 5x in 13 years. While it is obviously possible that it might go lower, I know that it is not expensive. I also know that a lot of good miners offer a much better value.
Like Stewart, I sell breakouts. If I didn’t misunderstand you, you buy them.
I do want to say again that I am strongly considering buying and holding more physical gold on a regular basis. Just buying it in small quantities.
Matthew, original, The Greater and all: thanks for the great dialog above.
For entertainment purposes only:
-an interview with David Gurwitz – April 15 (40 minutes)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVrE2zJMmwk
Having listened to older audios from Nenner Research I come to the conclusion that they’re predictive powers are no better or worse than anyone else – they get some right and they get some wrong.
These are some notes I took as I was listening. Someone else might hear things differently and his/her interpretation might not match mine.
>USD will continue downward
>DOW downward substantially for next 5 years; decade of 20’s will be an unbelievable up-move
>stocks and bonds will be rough on people medium term
>gold is bottoming but the long term low will be in June 2014 – $1180 is possible
>if usd loses another 1/3 gold could be at $2500
>silver longer term will be stronger than gold
>copper still in down cycle to $2.92 signaling deflation for next few years
>crude to $122 on the horizon is indication of war
>nat gas up a little more then back to $2 again
>top in stocks could be retested a few times but not going any higher
>major top in stocks this June
>bond rates will stay low for a year or so; long term will be a problem (meaning higher)
For reference – current prices:
USD index – 79.94
DOW average – 16,408
gold – 1,295
silver – 19.65
crude wtic – 104.60
nat gas – 4.74
copper – 3.05
opinions – a dime a dozen
Of interest, Peter Schiff just posted a video titled “Deflation: A Concern So Stupid only an Intellectual Could Be Worried”.
damn – it irritates me when someone mis-uses they’re, there, and their … and there I did it myself:(
Thanks…Irwin!! BTW, that is whatI get to…when listening to David Gurwitz..Nenner’s top guy.
ditto
Irwin,
For drill, we will keep these predictions and the future resulting numbers on our site.
Should be interesting.
seg #8….Mr Market with golds run in July-late Aug and again Jan to mid March has given all of us a peek into what jr’s-mid tier and sr miners produced % gains wise. Forget the love you have for XYZ company or their management, the market has given what are the top movers off the July and Jan lows into the highs, these are the company’s the street is playing and its the key reason to invest/trade these stocks….MOMENTUM
Good Luck!
To note…there was record insider buying on the TSX last week.
You can do your own D &D but the article noted I believe. ..
Record insider buying. I read a lot so not sure where that
article is out of many.
Insiders are definitely moving into resources.
No mention of insider buying last week but it was a factor LAST April….these guys loaded up just before the big puke….GDXJ fell from 90 last April to 66 here is the link from last year…can’t find anything related to the past couple weeks?????
The article id dated 4/30…..2013
Last year. …maybe I’m mistaken
The one i read was dated 4/17/2014
To find it will need to go dig it up.
but there was record insider buying last week.
Come H tighten up, this is suppose to be a serious site for serious metal investors, whats the point of stating anything if a link can’t back it up…..lol lets not have Al’s site full of BS…especially Easter weekend…lol
JJ…I posted on the fact that based on my honest representation I read it.
If your behavior continues im leaving this site for good.
Forthermore your article is a year outdated but then you
have the nerve to insult me.
AL AND CORY….not going to tolerate this any longer.
Good bye..JJ….enjoy yourself.
Ligthen up pal, you have too much chocolate eggs?
LOL=laughter, notice that on my post regarding a missing link, I was busting you chops, why are you sooo sensitive?
No kidding my link was dated April of Last Year, that’s my point a google search turned up your comment from April of last year and the real point is last year when there was big insider buying the market tanked right afterwards, so its meaningless.
Sorry I rub you the wrong way, easy cure just ignore me and carry on with your opinion and I’ll do the same, ignore you
Boy who pissed in your Cornflakes!
These comments AL AND CORY…. from JJ ..is the new improved forum.
I’m very sadly disappointed and appalled.
These comments are way over the line.
Going from dysfunctional….. to functional
No more than 2 days later… right back to disfunctional.
And guess what. …its only going to get much worse
Right back to square one. I don’t have the words anymore.
Enjoy !!! This kind of behavior is not something I want to be exposed to.
Very unpleasant and unsettling….to say the very least.
ROTFLMFAO!….thanks for my Easter Weekend chuckle H…sorry my fault I thought your last post was serious, then I realized you were joking.
Especially the part where you don’t have the words, that cracked me up!
Thanks again for the reverse chuckle…..did you ever find that link?
I didn’t find an article;
but here is the April 17/14 TSX insider trade summaries.
http://www.tmxmoney.com/HttpController?GetPage=InsiderTradeMarker
GOLD WILL GO UP !
GOLD IS THE SAME ASE WINE ! http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2013/09/23/n-china-red-wine-bordeaux-boom.cnnmoney
thanks Heavy.
Anytime you can add to this, please do.
The metals bull market is all in the dollar.
Silver has one huge disadvantage, lots of junk silver
comes out when the price increases to a good extent.
Other than that it is used up in industrial applications.
Precious metals especially gold and silver is a bet against USD
FWIW…IMVHO
Thank you all for your comments and Al and Cory’s great guests.
Here is link to an Indian man who swalled his gold to get it in his country. Hint did not work. 🙂
http://www.aol.com/article/2014/04/18/businessman-smuggles-gold-bars-by-swallowing-them/20872068/?icid=maing-grid7%7Chtmlws-main-bb%7Cdl10%7Csec1_lnk3%26pLid%3D466597
Seg 3-5.
Maybe I think it excellent as I agree.
Obama leads nato and the UN, they are no more than puppets.
The scary part is Obama gets his orders from the banks,military industrial complex and corporations.
Its their decision what happens in the Ukraine, I hope they don’t see too much profit opportunity.
One thing tho, some big western oil companies are doing business in Russia, they may feel that war is not to their benefit and lobby for peace.
As usual, Bob has a grasp of whats going on, I didn’t know (altho not surprising) that we have broken negotiated agreements.
As Bob says, to risk nuclear war, plain “nuts” is as good as any description.
bb,
I personally really enjoyed putting those particular segments together because the non black helicopter believer s becoming a believer.
Just listening to Rick, before I forget, Rick has a lower target for gdxj at 33.76, might be helpful if he gave an approximate gold price should gdxj hit that.
BB, if we see Rick’s target next Thursday or Friday, it will coincide with Fibonacci arc support (drawn from Dec. 23-Mar. 14). It will also coincide with support provided by the middle “tine” of the Andrew’s Pitchfork (weekly chart; using 4/4/11 hi; 5/14/12 lo; 9/17/12 hi). GDXJ gapped down several dollars when this support failed one year ago.
It would not surprise me at all if Rick’s call is a good one.
They usually are Matthew.
Sean Broderick mentioned he is seeing selling in New York, this is the same thing that Ive been seeing in Calgary. I mentioned a few days back I saw a dealer close up shop as he had too few buyers. I was also getting “polar bears” for the same piece as Maple leafs, usually anything other than Maples carry a premium.
I still see this as an opportunity. I see it as consistant with Doc/Garys call for lower prices. Mathew might be right, but I am investing for an increase once we have hit “low enough”.
Dumping here in Florida, friend bought from a dealer eagles @ $18. I am still looking for $15. And a gold crack of $1000, that will bring capitulation… Then we can start to build, if we are still alive.
Hang in there Bobby….
Did you read CFS’s post, ….from Miles Franklin….. concerning China and silver. Some great info. for future thought………..best…………..Jerry
Another excellent weekend show. Very enjoyable.
Thanks to everybody.
thank you bb and a big thank you for your continued commentary!
Hour one is available at gcnlive.com
http://www2.gcnlive.com/CMS/index.php/archivespage?showCode=25
thanks Rand,
GCN does carry our entire Show on the weekends.
Big Al, at the end of segment 8 you mentioned your looking to add to a list of resource stocks that are sponsors, Al I tossed up all those listed and my friend I would not buy any of them, not even with your money. As your well aware they all got whacked a decent amount last week…there is not 1 indicator I use for charting that has turned up-positive…wait till confirmation of a new upward trend is in place.
Don’t take my word for it ask Doc to have a look they all are still trending down.
I know, I know your answer will be your in this for the long haul…..would you buy a $100 golf shirt on Monday if you knew it was going to be cheaper by Fri and cheaper if Rick, Doc and Gary suggest where bullion is headed.
Sit on your hands Big Al…………………Good Luck!
I pretty much am for the time being “original”. (sitting on my hands that is)
I like all of our sponsors for different reasons.
Personally, and this is definitely not investment advice, the two most speculative right now are ADZ and NUG. I am currently up about 50% in each and see that as continued.
Regarding the golf shirt, of course you are correct!
Great weekend show.
Thank you Dan!
Link broken. Please fix.
Where is Rick’s post?
Looking for Cory’s comments next week.
Ukraine is the white card in the game.
I believe that you mean “wild” card.
We need confirmation next week!
Miles Franklin is a poster who just wants to sell gold.
Exactly original jj,
Go back & read the posts during golds last upper little spurt…its laughable if not pathetic.
To da moon & all these guarantees of where gold will be by the end of the year & so ?
What a crock of cr@p some people sprout…fortunately for them they don’t have to eat what they short term predict sometimes.
Gold is going down…I’m not unhappy about it either.
It will be a great ride on the way back up…awesome.
But it won’t be a sudden rise in a matter of weeks that makes everyone rich beyond their dreams…thats just a fairy tale
This next rise will be over a number of years imo…will be enjoyable for all though.
Cheers.
“Master, the tempest is raging
The billows are tossing high
The sky is o’ershadowed with blackness
No shelter or help is nigh
Carest thou not that we perish?
How canst thou lie asleep
When each moment so madly is threatning
A grave in the angry deep?
“The winds and the waves shall obey thy will
Peace, be still
Peace, be still
Peace, be still
Peace, be still
Whether the wrath of the storm-tossed sea
Or demons, or men, or whatever it be
No water can swallow the ship where lies
The Master of ocean and earth and sky
They all shall sweetly obey thy will
Peace, peace, be still …
My favorite JL saying: “Markets are never wrong; opinions are.” – Jesse Livermore
I can remember when QE#3 was announced Sept 13th 2012 all the goldbugs went nuts”o” calling for the US$ to crumble, Hyperinflation, gold to rocket higher, a goldbugs dream, and that’s exactly what it was a dream turned nightmare.
Gold was range bound trading between $1750-75 when QE3 was announced it quickly shot up to $1798 and since then has produced lower highs into the Dec 2013 at the $1180 zone previous tested in June of 2013.
Boy were all the gold guru’s 100% wrong with that opinion, ouch!
Then Taper was to become a reality announced Dec 18th 2013 with so many goldbugs claiming QE will never end, QE4-5-6-7 is more likely, well it was started Jan 2014 and gold broke higher creating a breakout on the chart clearing $1200 the complete opposite reaction the goldbugs have been pounding the same BS since QE1…go figure!
The gold gurus based on announcing QE3 would have been buying every dip as the buy of a lifetime waiting for the US$ to collapse….from $1795 to $1180
Little did Jesse realize just how his comment would ring 100% true to this day.
Opinions are for entertainment purposes, PRICE is everything!
Good Luck all!
I’ve stated her before that predictions are for entertainment purposes. I use technicals real-time. When we buy weakness and sell strength, isn’t that an implicit bet that the market has it wrong?
I would have missed 100%+ gains (average) had I listened to the bears in December.
On December 23, 2013 at 7:49 am,
Matthew says:
We have a near consensus among gold experts that gold is going to $1,000 (or lower). Among them are Rogers, Armstrong, Radomski, Roy-Byrne, Rambus, Ackerman, Savage, Bevan —that’s just off the top of my head. With so many lemming followers sidelined in anticipation of this price target, what are the odds that gold actually gets there?
I’ll stick with my $1,155-$1,125 worst case scenario.
On a chart, price IS front and center, but if it were EVERYTHING, why would we use the other tools at all?
“True understanding makes a distinction between the price and the value of gold.”
–Antal Fekete
Price is what you pay, value is what you get. Warren Buffet knows the value of what he gets for the price he pays.
Sell Dow buy miners:
http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/14apr/2014apr15dh1.png
I must be as dumb as a brick!…imo how can something, anything, continue to hold value as it continues to devalue in price?
All those that were gold bears in Dec were 100% correct. What the majority don’t understand and I have no idea why its so hard to do so, is when Rick A makes a call for $1070 Gold in Dec its based on the trend in play at the time all he is suggesting is when X falls Y is next…what happens is the trend changes a bottom is formed for whatever reason and a new uptrend unfolds, then Rick makes a call for higher gold targets and everyone regards his view as flip-flop nonsense…I’m 100% certain just as we saw at $1900 gold and back in 1980 $800+ gold calls for much, much higher gold and silver will be in play based on the upward trend…just as if gold again tests $1180 many will be calling for sub $1000 gold as that is the trend in play….its not door numbers the trend can change at anytime and those that follow the chart are rarely ever left behind.
Again, I am a complete idiot for imo if I pay $1000 for anything at its now worth $500 how I get more value from that is impossible for me to understand….but hey I’m nuts!
Perhaps I need medication, lol
All you need is good red wine!
jj….Its not trends….Its manipulation…..Like chess….Manipulation , checkmates trends.
I guess I’m even dumber than a brick because I don’t know what gold’s decline has to do with what I said. Gold DID decline over the last 2.5 years –even in REAL terms. Priced in commodities, gold is down about 30%, BUT it’s still up 100% since 2000/2001. Here’s something interesting. When the Dow doubled against the dollar from 10/02 to 10/07, it actually fell in real terms (gold; commodities). The last two years have been very different. The Dow did not double against the dollar but it did double in real terms(!). As the Dow made a record high in ’07, the monthly RSI barely reached 50 when priced in gold or commodities. This time, it became extremely overbought against gold and commodities and especially vs the miners ($HUI). Take a look at the monthly $INDU:$HUI and tell me which one you would rather buy last December. See any negative divergences? Now look at a weekly chart of the HUI (priced in dollars!). See any positive divergences as it went to new lows in December? If doubling the value of my junior portfolio is what it means to be wrong, I hope I’m wrong all day every day.
Now back to your question about an asset falling and still maintaining its value. Let’s look at the action in 2008. Between July and November, gold plunged about 20% from its peak when measured in dollars, yet nearly doubled at the same time when measured in commodities. Its real value went up regardless of the fact that it (briefly) underperformed the dollar (gold went on to outperform the dollar by nearly 6% for the year).
For various reasons, the dollar should be viewed like a stock. Both have substantial counterpary risk. Gold did not lose value when Netflix or Apple soared, but those who held gold instead did suffer an opportunity cost. Gold measures the dollar’s health, not the other way around. If you look at a chart of gold measured in commodities during its 20 year bear market of the ’80s and ’90s, you’ll find that it did not lose much value. Only those who bought during the last 10% of that bull market lost value.
More proof that gold, and not the dollar, is the ultimate numeraire: Gold’s average oil price for the last 40 years is 15 barrels. Today it trades at about 12.5 barrels but can exceed 20 or dip below 10. The dollar, on the other hand, only trades lower and lower. There is no long term trading range. The dollar has lost 98% of its oil value since 1971. Fiat currencies are highly speculative, not gold.
You must be a politician because I have no idea what you just said. I bought gold in 2002 based on a devaluing US$ I could have bought Oil, Wheat, Corn anything priced in US$ as the dollar declined. When I sold my gold I received far more $ per oz in 2011 than it took me to purchase the same oz in 2002 Gold did for me exactly what I wanted the investment to provide, protection from loss of purchasing power.
Since then I’ve been trading the long and short trends gold and silver and the miners have been trending since the tops….again making % gains which far outpace the inflation of day-day living…protecting my purchasing power.
KISS…keep it simple stupid works for me
Ok! 😉
OK, thanks Matthew
Did you ever see the movie Margin Call?…Jeremy Irons plays the guy in charge of the firm, well that was me when he said to the rocket scientist talk to me as you would a small child or a Labrador retriever as I can assure you I didn’t get to my position based on brains, my job is to know when the music changes before the street does.
I say that movie, “Original” and I did enjoy it.
It was a few years back though, and I seem to remember that it was a bit derogatory of Wall Street as it should have been.
You know Al there was a big Hollywood blunder in the movie Margin Call,…..when the firm was calling out unwinding their positions they were calling US banks, that’s 100% BS as every US trading desks held the same toxic crap….and think about it if your were well long XYZ and I called to offer you a chunk well below the bid as if you’d not hang up and whack every bid in sight, the US toxic mortgage CDS’s were dump all across Europe which was an easy sell because they were all stamped AAA which was the real crime!!!
All I really remember about that movie “Original” was that I was somewhat disappointed. Wasn’t Kevin Spacey in it?
Yes he was, very true although his ego told him to get out at the end he couldn’t afford it!…making big bucks for so long yet no real net worth, ahhh the American way
And that Matthew, is why I buy stocks on fundamentals. Please remember that I consider “management” to be a very important fundamental!
Yep Original, price is everything.
And you are again correct, that was one of the worst calls in financial history.
That, my friend, is exactly why we buy and hold for entirely different reasons.
I guess that mom, dad, grandpa and grandma were all correct.
Warren is a lot like Gary, Rick and Doc they call it as the chart action/trends change. Warren posts on the weekend at Goldseek and he’s a very grounded chartist calling the trend outcome by what targets need to hold and what may unfold if they don’t. Just like Rick and Gary were calling for $1400++ gold when it was trading $1370+ when support gives way one changes with the trend….worth the read imo
jj….You still don’t get it……Warren is an insider……That’s why the man is so rich , & you are so poor compared to him.
Good post jj.
Ive always thought we wouldn’t see much lower than $1000, but after the cfs milesfranklin article Im not so sure.
I find it hard to think the Chinese would let it go much lower tho, im guessing, but I don’t think they would want to shake the confidence of their people.
bb, I would not be shocked to find out years from now that the driver from $1395 to whatever Gold’s “final” low is was driven by the buyers out of China…..big traders in anything do this all the time, sell X amount trigger stops and put out your hands buying the cheap on great volume…perfect trading…who knows?!?!
Not sure why some people on this site support Rand Paul.
http://youtu.be/osg0RYAP2cs
As I Have said before, Rand Paul is no Ron Paul
I would definitely agree with you Bobby!
Not really sure just how authentic this particular video is. Notice that neither the guy nor the woman were acknowledged. Given that they were the only media there I find that kind of strange.
Probably doesn’t matter anyhow. The way Obama is going, we’ll all be glowing green by the time the next election comes along. Funny how a president getting a Peace Prize, will probably go down as re-starting the cold war.
That is kind of ironical. But then political correctness is what this is all about!
Gold prices are not yet as high as the exchange rate between GWP or global money supply and real ounces of gold. The same principle applies to silver. By that yard stick so called market prices are dirt cheap in real terms.
With Asia minutes away from opening Gold has key levels it needs watching, can it regain the 200dma @ $1299 and regain the 13 handle on a closing basis, Tues low @ $1284 must hold or $1277 comes into sight on a bullish reversal taking out Aprils high @ $1231 would have shorts covering some positions.
Silver needs to hold $19.60 or it will be testing $19.22 and a very key level of $19.00 for a bullish reversal closing above $20.06 would do it.
HUI needs to hold 216 and needs to recapture the 200dma and 50dma @ 228 and 234
Good luck all
I just bough a pineapple for 99 cents.
Think about the economics of that!
Thank you Krogers!
Nice to have you back..Dennis.
Im surprised Al that you havnt been buying gold.
You really are a silver believer, me 5-10% of investable income to gold.
I started with onces of gold, then moved to silver, returned to smaller pces of gold, but my intention was to lessen the volititliy of my metals portfolio.
I feel I made a mistake buying onces of gold, and don’t now, 1/2 or less, generally no smaller than 1/10. altho I have a couple grams and some 1/10 gram bills. (very cool)
I figure the reason I want small gold is I can sell them and the tax man doesn’t notice, should gold go to $10k or better I don’t want any record of me selling it.
Course I could always cut the onces in half I guess, just thought of it, doh.
So, when I buy, I am taking into account what happens when I sell thus small pcs.
bb….Sod the tax man…..The black market is expanding…..cash when you want it no records…..You will have no problem selling gold off the books.
In Calgary we had 2 dealers next store to each other.
The long time guy you have to sign for your purchase and give ID when you sell, the other guy did no such thing and had a copy of the law to “back him up”
Naturally that’s the guy that went bust. To stay in the metal business in Canada you have to buy mint products, for that you need to be on some kind of list I think.
Good Grief people…the charts..the charts..the charts….They have a life span of about 5 minutes ……Re the metals……Think the Morgans , Goldman , etc , PPT & the Algos…..Charts are history……..There are no free markets…..Look at the profits the big boys are making…while the rest of the participants are losing.
LOL, if gold was $5000 this eve and Silver $250 would you be crying about the Morgan’s, Goldman’s and the PPT, no you wouldn’t!
Stop complaining and learn to play the game its that easy once you get over the self pitty BS.
Charts are history, good grief so ignorant a comment
jj, I do agree with you. “learn to play the game”
But Tony is has a good point, How can charts be good when the charts are manipulated?
Except, the price of PMs is being controlled to the upside, and these charts can tell us when to be in and out as investers.
I had a girlfriend once that said “no matter what you do it all comes back to the ol in and out”
Applies to a few things I suppose.
bb, does it matter what creates the trends a trader uses?….manipulation, PPT, Big bad JPM…I know I don’t care, do Irish think he moves the action on any chart, I think not.
I just found his comment insulting to our host Big Al and Cory who everyday interview 3 investors who use charts to guide their positions I don’t think any of them think they are a waste of time!!!!!
If Gold and Silver could really be manipulated they would still be $250 and $5…nobody cries manipulation when gold pops 2% but every down day its manipulated talk about Good Grief!
Learn to trade of get out of the markets
that’s true jj, the “chart” guys here, Gary Rick and Doc are great.
Some commenters are pretty good too.
original jj…………..Hint………….IRISH, has a lot of friends on this board…
and BIG AL IS ONE OF THEM………….Just saying………….
BTW………I kind of like Irish myself………………………………OOTB
Well Irish has a funny way of showing Al respect as I said Al asks on a daily basis, 3 times a day in fact what the chart suggests and I’d say Al, Rick and Gary have a lot of friends here.
Irish can say what ever he wants to me as I understand his comment comes from ignorance of the chart, that’s fine, no bother!
jj…I don’t do self pity BS…..Let me ask you a question how much did you make last year thru trading ?…using the charts
Your right Tony, so whats to do about it?
Understanding of course that these guys can kill you and your family with impunity.
And no, Im not exagreating or making histarical remarks like “gold to the moon”
Its real, anyone gets in the way they kill them, or buy them, easy peasy.
So…whats to be done? Ive been asking awhile, nobody seems to have any ideas.
bb….Whats to be done….STOP playing their rigged game…..BTW , JJ…I listen to what AL’s guests say & I respect their opinion’s , as I do yours…so please show common courtesy by respecting mine even if I am wrong….I have no intention of sinking to your level…..Yours Respectfully….Tony.
jj..I don’t trade so no need to use charts……..But sometimes it pays to be standing outside the store , to see everything that’s in the window…….old tony proverb.
Well now I understand where your coming from Tony, if you don’t have the skills to trade of the chart data just admit so its no big deal, but why insult those that can and do?
I don’t post how’s the buy and hold working for you….I’m not losing money because of JPM I’m making money following the trend they create, I can’t compete in anyway with those that create the chart action.
If I want to see the whole store front I back off the daily chart and use the monthly, thanks!
I suppose if everyone in the market would stop investing in it, and everybody stopped voting, maybe then something might change. Quite a challenge to make it happen tho.
Probably not realistic, bb.
I would be more likely to call it absolutely impossible, unless of course the brokerages closed down and the voting machines stopped working, altogether beyond repair, so maybe not absolutely impossible but pretty close.
Appreciate that comment Mr. Irish.
JJ……It was not my intention to insult you or any other chartists….I was merely pointing out that in this manipulated world we live in , I just don’t think that trading charts have the same honesty & value that they used to have…My point is look at the bigger picture…Thank You for replying…perhaps we can now put the subject to bed……Respect to you..tony.
thanks Mr. Irish.
Absolutely Tony, regardless of how we all approach the precious metals sector we are all in this to preserve capital.
Have a good day!
As you know, “Original” I certainly agree with that.
Bob M
What happened to the the USD? Used toilet paper you say? Its 10% above CAN Loon!?
Derivatives?
Bank were going to blow up years ago?
You use to have great get in and get out advice..What the hell happened??
These last 8 years were a GREAT boom and we screwed ourselves following 321Gold.
Store food? Til its rots?
Link to first file broken.