Politics, Companies and Hard Assets
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In this show Al discusses:
- Segment 1 – Big Al and Trader Rog discuss the role of the Far East in the precious metals markets.
- Segment 2 – Ray Navis discusses the current real estate markets in the U.S.
- Segment 3 – David McAlvany discusses precious metals and the method behind the madness of this great investment firm.
- Segment 4 – An important re-run with Jeff Deist, Chief of Staff for Ron Paul discussing politics.
- Segment 5 – We open the 2nd hour discussing Lupaka Gold.
- Segment 6 – Scott Drever, President of Silver Crest Mines, discusses recent financial results of the company.
- Segment 7 – Chris Anderson discusses Great Atlantic Resources at the request of a listener.
- Segment 8 – Big Al wraps up the show with a political discussion questioning the differences between the president and Mitt Romney. Cory Fleck weighs in providing a prospective from Canada.
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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
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Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Yes, and PEM. Especially following their recent news release. I am certain you wrote we’d hear something more on Thursday and then Friday and here we are on Saturday with nothing. As you might well imagine, there are a lot of very confused and nervous investors in this company who await Del Steiner’s explanation on this updated NI 43-101 along with a what’s next…
I’m with you on that Lynn. Maybe Big Al has an interview fo rus later this weekend considering he wasn’t able to post an editorial yesterday.
Also, forgive me for not thanking you for the efforts you’ve made thus far to help us out by getting PEM on your show, especially during the recent radio silence due to the review. lynn
Assume the following:
1) An at arm’s length buyer
2) Seller’s motivation to sell is consistent with the overall market
3) A transaction between buyer and seller occurs selling an asset for x.
From the above assumptions you can conclude the asset is worth x.
It is a mistake to view an asset can be had for 50 cents on the dollar simply because at one point in time the asset sold for 2x.
An asset is worth what a ready willing and able buyer will pay for it WHEN the transaction occurs. No more no less. Calculations based on past markets are instructive but have no strict force over current conditions. Just as views on future prices are speculations, looking at historical prices are a source of information but will not carry the day.
you are correct Dennis, my comment below was being typed at the same time you were typing.
Bobby you can take it one step further.
In terms of silver
Let us look at the price of the asset in terms of silver.
Let us say the top of the market was 2006 to 2007. Silver during this period was $11 to $12 an ounce. Today silver sells for $28. Using the high or $12 price per ounce during the period the asset halved in price in terms of dollars…the property in terms of silver plummeted quite a bit more.
$1,000,000 home now selling for 500,000 said to selling now for “50 cents on the dollar”.
In terms of silver in 2006 to 2007 the house sold for aprox 83,333 ounces of silver.
Today the house sells for 17,857 ounces of silver.
Or less than 25% of the ounces just 5 years ago.
The house is selling for “21.42 cents on the dollar” when measured in terms of silver.
Bingo, that’s exaclty why i traded my house for silver. Will I trade back, maybe, but not today,
In this market listen to what John W. attributed to Rodney Dangerfield “Live in the most modest house your wife will let you.”
Real estate is a tax target.
In markets where foreclosures are prolific county auditors simply ignore those transactions as “not at arm’s length.”
If a significant portion of the market transacts by forced sale auditors should adjust values. But they cannot lower auditor values and collect the same tax without raising tax rates.
Just as banks carrying empty houses want home values to “correct” so to counties want to tax the highest possible value.
Al may be right…in five years houses may recover in dollar terms significantly.
There are a bunch of concerned parties with collateral and taxing desires that need this to happen. James Turk attempted to say recently to the effect …maybe we should worry less about separation of church and state and instead concentrate on separation of bank and state.’
My take going forward is that asset classes that have transacted in the past with high levels of leverage will not perform as well as assets that have relied less on leverage to arrive at their price.
If real estate does correct to five year ago highs my question is there will likely be multiple asset classes that outperform.
As always, Dennis M, you make some great points.
As others have pointed out $0.50 on the dollar, etc. are probably not really correct values.
I think that our kids will be fine in the real estate sector in about five years in prices relative to today’s prices.
I personally would not purchase real estate, at my stage, as an investment. If we got a screaming deal on a waterfront home that we wanted to live in, I would probably purchase that but certainly not with the idea of making any money on it.
Big Al
BIG AL….just rent the water front….you will not have to worry about storm insurance, landslides, and ducks breaking thur the windows…….
Hi In the Box,
So if I rent the whole thing I can put in a water slide park with an adjacent go-kart track! (Even an Irish pub for you now who!)
Big Al
Jerry, Now your are talking Rent, there is nothing wrong with renting. My 17th floor condo overlooking the Atlantic less than 50 feet from the high tide mark, rents of 25 % LESS than HOA, taxes, insurance. That doesnt even take into account the owners $550,000.00 investment.
Bobby ,,,you have made my point….renting is clearly better at this moment, than buying….., I am waiting till after the election, when prices are going down even more, and looking for some beach buys….Naples,and Charleston,SC…., reason,,,,
the New Yorkers,,drove up the prices in Charleston…..The Chicagoians,…drove up the prices in Naples….Now, both areas are…still overpriced, and have to correct because of foreclosures…
Jerry,
my street 3 miles, has about 300 units for sale, about 10-15% of the total. ALL oceanfront luxury condos. I expect at least 20% decline from todays prices. My current offers would be about 50% of last sale (yes a true .50 on the dollar) We i connect? who knows, if you knock on enough doors sooner or later someone answeres. IMO, All profits on real estate in the next 5 years will come on the buy side, not appreciation.
Bobby….Like they say…”you make your money on the buy, not on the sale….”.
even, thought that is said about , stocks etc…I think that now applys to RE…
I think you are correct, that the market is going lower, and that a .50 on the dollar
is possible….In bankruptcy,,,.10cents on the dollar would apply….and I think there are going to be a lot of bankruptcies….with the current job situation, I do not see that changing….world wide unemployment is a mess…and next we are going to see inflation , and rates are going up,like the late 70’s, we are going to see 15% and rate for mortgages are going up…sooner or later….I would compare the current real est. mkt., like the Victorian era, where there were a ton of big house, then the market turned, and no buyers…the market is glutted with oversize, and overpriced units….and they are not selling in any area of the country….
I think gold/platinum are going to go up in price because of the difficulty what mining conditions are in South Africa for the demands being placed by the many labor unions and the threat of nationalism in that region. If South Africa goes toward communism and its control by these forces will cause badly run mines to go broke by the burden of all the labor cost. And then the resource sectors in other countries will have to take up the slack of that loss. Just a hunch or my two cents…
Platinum is definitely going up. I bought a few ounces after it dipped below gold, which usually doesn’t happen.
Matt….Dennis…..I agree platinum is going up…..and is undervalued…I expressed the same with SHAWN.. the other day…I have been buying platinum since 97, and platinum has always , except in the late couple of years, been price higher than gold….,
Seg 2, nice job by Ray. I still do not like the term 50cents on the dollar! This is very misleading due to the fact that the inflated prices in real estate were not real, they were “bubble” prices. One cannot gauge todays prices against them.
The top of a market is real for a sale in the period.
However, using a top to say the property is discounted today is a mistake.
Someone who could fog a mirror was an able buyer in 2006.
Today 95% of the fogging the mirror potential buyers are unable to secure financing.
The bubble prices are real. Trading AG for AU at a 33 to 1 Silver to Gold ratio was real in April 2011. In May 2011 it was history. Although we may anticipate a historical price to return it may but it may not. If it does then the question is when. It took a generation for the stock market to regain the losses of 1929. If the once one million dollar home does return to a million dollar price the question is first when. Second you will need to ask at that point in time…..what else can I buy with a million dollars?
…// //Lets welcome quota based on ploioatupn ratio. When quota based on p.r comes into being, there wont be room for complaints from any quarters, including the now-quota-less people.When the whole ploioatupn gets covered under quota, there wont be any question of merits.// //ந ய யம என ற வ ர த த க க ப ர ப பனர கள க ஞ சம ன ம மர ய த க ட ப ப ர கள என ற ல – இந தக கர த த ல தங கள க க உடன ப ட உண ட , இல லய ? என ற க ற வ ண ட ம .இத தவற என ற கர த ன ல – அதற க என ன க ரணம என பத ந ர ம ய ன ந ஞ ச டன வ ளக கவ ண ட ம .
Seg 8, RE Alternatives, First look at your balot, investigate ALL candidates, if you do not find one that you agree with, write in someone with whom you do! It’s very simple, educate yourself, make a decision with you heart and mind. We need not vote for the lesser of two evils.
Real estate brokers are like used car dealers their job is to sell you a lemon as if it were a cherry of a deal. Then here in California in that CA is looking more like a chapter 9 deal and Jerry Brown is looking for a way to get more money out of taxpayers who have owned property prior to 1978 i.e. in family trusts issue that the repeal of proposition 13 is looking pretty good about now in reducing the debt, but he may have had to put it on the back burner because Obama wants to get elected.
LOL, Well not all of us California real estate brokers, are like used car dealers.
Well I guess I should have said some real estate brokers are like used car dealers, not all I stand corrected. I`ve worked with quite of few of them over the years when I was a fire sprinkler contractor C-16, some of them seemed to be that way.
No offence taken, I was once likened to a lawyer! LOL
Silver doctors.com has an interview with Ann Barnhardt. I got it from the Keiser site.
A must listen if you ask me, as the casey crowd says.
Here is somthing I picked up yesterday, forget where.
In the last 32 weeks there have been 5 weeks of inflows to the market of 3.6 bn.
Equal to last weeks outflow of 3.6bn.
Think it has to do with that court decision that people no longer own any money deposited with any institution?
With 50-80% of all trades being computer trades how long will it take until there is zero money left in the market?
How long until there is not enough left to cause any stock to go up without algorithmic trading?
Does anyone have an idea as to the total amount of cash in the market?
Deducting the outflows would tell us how long the market has before its “kaput”.
Seg.1 Asian young people buying pm’s, I find that young people are more interested than older folks here about pm’s, but they dont know how or where to buy generaly.
Here’s a good take as well Ben–> http://beforeitsnews.com/business/2012/08/startling-evidence-that-central-banks-and-wall-street-insiders-are-rapidly-preparing-for-something-big-2447596.html
With capital becoming hoarded, what are we to think of when we see the equities markets still rising? Seems to me that the feds are increasing their positions while smart money is pulling out.
I have read a few articales where people are expecting a “big” move. TR thinks 2-3rd week sept.? Might be an idea to have a % short. Barnhardt says to be 100% out, she was the only 1 right a year and a half ago that I know of, maybe she is right this time too. Other than shorting facebook and a few others.
This cyclical conventional market bull is “long in the tooth” if you compare it to a historical reference. Of course you have an unusual reason for that due to the money printing by the Fed. It’s only a matter of time before the markets implode. As mentioned previously, the dow/gold ratio is getting very close to the 200 MA and something big is about to happen in the next 4-8 weeks. Also the Dow Theory is flashing red. The volume is pathetic. The earnings season was lousy and guidance wasn’t much better. The conventional markets don’t make any sense at the present time. Of course, stranger things have happened in the past.
HI Doc,
I would invite you to help us with a Daily Editorial this week.
Does that work?
Big Al
Neither the conventional markets nor the resource markets really make any sense at this point.
I will be devoting a couple of segments on this issue with the folks from Casey Research on the upcoming Weekend Edition.
Big Al
Ben, I’m thinking because of the quietness from the media and our “beloved” govenment that we are to hit the debt ceiling yet again on September 14th.
Think we’ll hear anything about it from the “most trusted name in news” sorce? Or any other of the state-run media? I sincerely doubt it. Maybe the whole sovereign debt crisis will not come in to play until next year. Either way, I am cautious about all of my financial affairs.
Best to you and yours,
Lynn
Evening Lynn,
I am very cautious also!
Big Al
Afternoon Lynn (male)
How can any person not be cautious about his/her financial affairs during these crazy times!
Big Al
Lynn,
I bet you tell great ghost stories. That link is scary stuff! Soros selling banks and buying gold.. When Warren “Muppet” Buffet starts buying silver in gold then Ann Barnhardt’s prediction will be about to happen…”the feces is about to impact the rapidly rotating metal blades!” Do not wait for him to announce his purchase.
But we are not rational.
Everything will be just fine.
That FDIC isignia next to the teller’s chained up ink stick will make sure everything is fine always.
Dennis, your comment regarding the FDIC made me think of this video –> http://youtu.be/2EnaU7D80oM <–
Scary ghosts stories indeed!
Better yet –> http://youtu.be/Z5AfVVk8KJk <– This woman tells a more scarier one.
Thanx benb…I love the white jump suit accesorized by the pink AK-47.
I remember hearing her on FSN right after MF Global fiasco and her shutting down her business. She is a fire pistol. I loved then her line “when the feces hit the rapidly rotating metal blades.” I respect her opinion. The kind of girl that would pay for dinner!
Hey Al, why not end the fed and its strangle hold over having a third party only job just in printing money and lending back to Americans with interest. In that its been said that these Fed families get $1 trillion dollars tax free every year and its an ongoing FRAUD since 1914, and a fraud if discovered makes those people involved be taken to the cleaners in penalies. That said that could close the gap in our nations buget crisis and allow those unfunded liabilities to disappear within reason, wouldn`t you say so Al. This could be a question to be put to Romney don`t you think.
Also another question to be put to Romney how are they going to deal with that it looks like GM is flowing toward bankruptcy again are they going to bail these guys out again or just let it fail. Their answers about GM and End the Fed probably would be just the same old answers of the past, in that these institutions are as old as baseball and should be protected what would you say to this, just wondering.
Hi Al,
Do you think you can get anyone from Newstrike Capital to appear on the show, in my opinion, one of the best gold junior explorers.
Thanks,
if romney is elected ..all hell will break loose in the lame duck congress and sitting president…the SHTF as the president elect looks on in silence…as all the pieces that are in place now are activated without any sense of shame…..a gutted and torn country is then handed to the new president…
re-run with Jeff Deist…
Houf, guess I’ll fast forward on that one.
If the gentleman would take the time to read Franklin`s “A Modest Enquiry into the Nature and Necessity of a Paper”, aknowledge the Constitution does not impose gold and silver as money on the Federal Government but on the States of the Union, and then complete his knowledge base with “Raw Materials Economics”, THEN would I be interested in hearing what new insight he may have.
HI Missive,
Jeff is so pissed off at the current state of affairs, as I am and I’ll bet you are, that he often times talks in more macro terms.
Have a great weekend,
Big Al
Well, I guess he joins a large group of people. I’d also be curious to know his opinion on the candidates Campaign for Liberty is supporting. From the little I’ve seen, looks like standing on principles is not part of the selection process, nor is having a voting record that matches their rethoric.
Anyway, I understand the desire to get the Chicago crew out of the White House, but it is still the House that votes the money. Let`s start there!
Have a great weekend too.
Evening Missive,
Look for some editorials on this subject this week.
Big Al
If you get Johnson on, I certainly would like to hear more details about this:
“Libertarian Party candidate and former two-term governor of New Mexico Gary Johnson made a stop in Waco, Texas on Friday morning, Aug 17…
…Johnson stated that he supports an audit of the Federal Reserve and as president would not wait for congress on the matter. Instead he would appoint a chairman that would produce the audit and then work towards closing down the privately owned central bank and return the power to create money back to the treasury…”
I would also like to hear his thoughts about this approach to put a damper on high frequency trading:
The Aite Group, for instance, estimates that high-frequency trading now accounts for 70 percent of average daily trading volume in equities.
“http://tarpley.net/docs/getfile.php?f=NO_AUSTERITY.pdf
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Segment 3:
Ryan, “We’ll tell you the details AFTER the election.’ Yes my sweet, I promise to love in the morning just grant me this one-off, if you please.
But quite frankly Big Al, I think this election is much ado about nothing–a choice between false choices. And Romney, which Romney are we talking about? At least the Marxists are intellectually honest about their big government agenda, whereas the elephants have to lie like hell and spin like crazy to get elected–and Romney spins faster than a whirling dervish. Now ain’t that a kick?
Afternoon BJ,
No, my friend, it ain’t a kick! It is truly SAD!
Big Al
BJ,
Probably a typo on your part. “elephants” should read “donkeys”. Just wanted to clear that up. Lie and spin are jackass food.
OK Jerry, help me out.
1. Tell me again why (the truth–not the lies) why we invaded Iraq. I’ve heard all the lies that couldn’t stand the test of time or light of day. Mushroom clouds, indeed!
2. Tell me how “no child left behind comports with getting the federal government out of public education (every state’s responsibility as per their constitution and as prohibited under our US Const. 10th Amend.)
3. Tell me again how faith based initiatives (federal money) got pumped into religious institutions in violations of our 1st Amend.
4, Tell me again and tell me again. It’s nice to hear, because I’ve heard it all before—over and over again.
An oh BTW, there’s no way in hell I’m voting for the Democrats either. After all, voting for the lessor of two evils is voting for evil none the less.
Oh yes, I almost forgot Jerry. Tell me again my the elephants didn’t include Bush’s war costs as part of the Defense budget. Smoke and mirrors I presume
Seg..4 ….Ryan has no plan….just a bunch of yap…for the sheeple…, let us face it , the sheeple can not even balance their check books…so , they really do not expect the govt. to balance the budget…The sheeple still believes in santa, and the tooth fairy…
Okay, In the Box, now you are getting personal.
Santa is real and you know that. I visit him every year in the Nordstrom front window in downtown Seattle. (By the way, I always wondered how he was able to be in the Macy’s front windows at the same time!)
Regarding the tooth fair, common man! I actually saw the tooth fairy one night and “she” (I assume) was the spitting image of you know who!
Big Al
I’m with you Big Al! Just this morning I saw the Easter Bunny working its way through my vegetable garden. I started to run it off and it reared up and said to me, “it’s just another tax, and I don’t take much!” With that, I went back to my porch and finished my coffee. I surrender!!!
AL,,forgive me, on the santa issue….I know you could never give up on santa….
but, this tooth fairy , is a looser…, every time I saw the fairy I was missing a tooth…
now if that isn’t a looser, I just don’t know what is….
I would argue the exact opposite of David McAlvaney’s position on junk silver. In a barter situation, I believe that unfamiliar coins, such as silver rounds and even Silver Eagles, will be viewed with more suspicion than regular, everyday US coins. With the stories about counterfeit gold and silver bars and coins, I believe people will be more comfortable dealing with coins with which they are already familiar. It is true that most people do not currently know about the silver content in pre-1965 coins, and thus are unaware of the actual value of the coins, but under a dire circumstance and when it comes to feeding one’s family, Americans will figure these things out very quickly. Note the silver dime card emergence. I’m sticking with the junk.
I definitely have a tendency to agree with you Robert!
Big Al
Robert , I agree with you.
Seg..4.. You are exactly right Big Al. This election is socialism vs capitalism. The choice is simple. in my opinion we can live with the deficit a bit longer if the extreme job killing policies of this administration are halted, ie: coal, energy, power plants, pipelines and the list goes on. That can only happen with Romney/Ryan.
Yeh, I agree!
Big Al
Actually it’s two different forms of capitalism: communism vs fascism–neither of which comport with free market capitalism, and both of which eventually lead to economic collapse (especially whne married to fiat money).
well said BJ
Gator,
That is a very good point.
Big Al
Jerry (Gator) M – “…This election is socialism vs capitalism…”
You are kiding, right?
Obamacare in simply a larger operation of what Romney put in place in Massachusetts. What did the demorepublicrats do under sonny Bush? Just look at Ryan`s record:
Wednesday, 15 August 2012 14:20
Paul Ryan: Would-be Savior of the Welfare/Warfare State
Crony capitalism at its best, and drones will be used to keep everybody in line while they`re raking the last crumbs left on the table.
Uh, you failed to mention job killing policies of the current dictator. Leave it out on purpose?
Why would that be left out on purpose? Bush wanted to add making burgers in the “jobs from manufacturing” category, did you leave that out on purpose?
Don`t answer that, just being facetious.
a rerun of voodoo economics?
Missive I agree with you, “gotta be kidding”
Gator makes a point I have been making, people still think they have a choice or that there is a differance between dems and republicans.
That leads to my next point, if the so called “informed and educated” dont get it how can anyone expect the masses to understand.
I saw a show about the 2012 “end of world” preppers the other night,
from that it looked like those people are best prepared, at least after the apocolypce the world will be populated with reasonable thinkers.
I do like what some of these preppers do. I prefer those who promote community preparedness and individual self-sufficiency.
Trina – These are absolutely gouegors photos! Very special. I love them all, but my fave is the one of you guys exiting the church with your great smiles. It really captures the feeling. I also like the one of the bridesmaids. The candid moment and the colors are beautiful. And the socks make me smile. Can’t wait to see the rest!September 17, 2012 1:57 pm
BEWARE of “vote harvesting time”!
FYI a powerful montage:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3hY1eagq88&feature=related
No wonder they eventually tried to permatnently load him with lead.
In a time of universal deceit – telling the truth is a revolutionary act. – George Orwell
MissiveDuTexas,
The whole speech is better.
This is the greatest political speeche of out time.
The speach was first aired before I was born.
When in college I was encouraged to hate Reagan by most of my professors.
The whole program is instructive:
Well, I guess back in the 60`s, not a whole lot of people saw this. Rings loud and clear now, 60 years of beating the same drum I guess.
LYNN (male)- remember the INDY MAC run was incited 7/26/2008 by Charles “Chucky” Schumer.
He viliolated multiple laws publically broadcasting concerns about the bank. It was as if he was at a bar picking a fight. Today we see Mr. Chucky Schumer as matchmaker in chief in re his staff. I am still waiting for the Sen. Senator from NY to utter one sentence with which I agree.
FDIC- Forfeit Deposits In Crisis
Think about it this way…since the depression era the FDIC program has for most depositors through marketed assurances removed the necessity to inquire into the practices of a considered bank for deposit.
FDIC has been the financial equivalent to banking that the public school system has been to education.
I agree with Dennis Brophy above comparing real estate brokers and tax assayers to used car salesmen with a bunch of lemons in their inventory, hoping for an uneducated sucker to come along and save them from their sins. When the housing bubble burst in 2007 we were supposed to see housing prices deflate to pre-1988 or even pre-1971 prices. Instead houses were held in limbo by banks foreclosing on them and then hiding them from their balance sheets, the Realtor (“tor”) union getting together with the Mayor union of the USA saying “we’re not lowering prices until people make more money to afford the same price”, and entire neighborhoods in Detroit and Chicago turning into crime-ridden devastation indistinguishable from Lebanon, Iraq, or South Africa. Sure, you can buy a house in some cities for $1, but you will need 100 of your closest armed friends to surround the house and $40,000-$80,000 to fix the house back up from the wiring, plumbing, and air conditioning being ripped out and the place used as a homeless crack shelter for over a year. No wonder Detroit is bulldozing entire streets instead of waiting for people to buy the homes back and start paying taxes on them again.
Thus “buying low when the bubble burst” in real estate has become a lie. When other bubbles burst – medical, college education, government entitlements, etc, you will not be able to walk in with pennies on the dollar to buy these properties and make a fortune at the bottom. The values of these items will be ransacked by others before you. This is how a First World nation becomes Third World status in a short period of time – destroying everything in sight.
What about the first time home buyers tax credit?
What about suspension of banks account market to market accounting?
The strongest backing real estate currently has is governments have not yet figured out how to tax deflation.
When housing corrects (as it should) in a debt addicted 70% consumer economy…Katy bar the door!
Propping up housing is analogous to first aide applying pressure. You have not fixed anything, but you prevented the patient from bleeding out.
The next problem is not so easy…this economy has internal bleeding.
Jobs might help!
Jobs is the immediate solution. Nothing works until people are employed by private enterprise not by gov’t.
Jerry how about making things?…..like consumer goods?
The USA has not had a trade surplus in my adult life.
We need to export consumer goods.
I agree with your comment about the private sector.
In addition we need a manufacturing private sector.
A service centric private sector is a start…..but we need to make things…we need to export things. Cutting each other’s hair is fine. Inspecting fire safety is fine. These jobs are not supported unless we make things again. We need to manufacture the fire extinguishers. We do not want to live in a country where your most successful grandchild is a tattoo artist.
Dennis M.,
Absolutely but our manufacturing base started disappearing when the unions got out of hand with their wage and benefit demands and the gov’t started imposing the massive regulations that made it impossible to manufacture using cheap energy ie: coal. That along with high corp. taxes forced manufacturing out of the country. I think it will return if the regulations are rolled back and the unions make concessions along with repatriating offshore funds. I for one would be willing to pay more for items if they were made in the U.S.
I thought you were going to talk more about AMY.