Opinions from the best of the best and two new companies
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
In this show Al discusses:
- Segment 1 – David Morgan weighs in on the markets.
- Segment 2 – Linda Gorman discusses their upcoming show in Tempe.
- Segment 3 and Segment 4 – Dr. Clete Bulach discusses shortcomings in education and shortcomings in the government. Know what, I could not agree with his solutions more!
- Segment 5 – Chris Anderson introduces Greenlight Resources.
- Segment 6 – Westhaven Ventures is introduced.
- Segment 7 – Big Al and Rick Ackerman discuss the seeming contradictions in the current market environment.
- Segment 8 – Big Al and Trader Rog introduce a new segment, “Stock of the Week: Clifton Star Resources.”
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Good Morning Richard,
Your comments regarding the impact of the jobs report is, I think, spot on. Earnings reports will obviously also be very important.
I would agree with you regarding the miners as I stated in an earlier editorial. I continue to buy in this sector because I share your opinion that later this year they should do very well.
Regarding your comments pertaining to au, I am not sure that I would agree. I found it interesting that yesterday au was down (on the day) $0.20 yet the futures market way up $20.00.
Interesting times, my friend!
Big Al
Al, just a comment on your comment on gold. I can almost say with certainty that’ll we see gold in the upper $1500. I would at that time have to look at my charts and macro events to then predict its’ next move. We will indeed see in the next few weeks if that’l an accurate assessment.
If the numbers are only apart by say $50 I would say that it is inconsequential.
Time will tell,
Big Al
Hi Big Al,
Thanks as always for a great show and your excellent comments.
Me personally, I’m not knowledgable or experienced enough to be able to read the charts with any real accuracy(plus since charts reflect human’s past patterns of behavior, and we are now in very different times, psychological and emotional influences are not creating the same patterns as they used.) Most people act based on the ‘herd’ sentiment, but folks are getting nervous, second guessing themselves, trying to figure out new investing patterns, price points, when to move in, when to get out, etc. The old paradigms aren’t working, which I think are making chart reading less accurate, that’s just my thinking.
What I try to do is first do my own DD(as best I can) on a company, learn from others more knowledgable, consult analysts I trust, , judge the fundamental value, then wait for a good(maybe not the lowest) entry point. And if it moves lower, I will try to pick up some more shares on significant dips. I always try to have some cash parked on the sidelines for this. This way I am able to pick up shares of good companies that trend downward in price. I may or may not pick the bottom, but I will pick up shares at good points along the way. (Discipline and consistancy) That’s my strategy. Time will tell if it works, but logically it makes sense to me.
Best
Richard: I recommend you listen to Frank Barbera over and financial sense. Lows in such volatile things like miners are always made at the worst of sentiment following a miserable grind down. But when the low is hit, miners will rebound at such speed that most people will be left waiting for an entry never to get one.
When the negative sentiments are at their worst, that is the time to start buying. Slow and gradual buying during the decline towards extreme undervaluations. Buying at the extreme bottom is possible but not wise to try.
Most of the trading today is based on technical interpretations, but the fundamentals for gold has not changed its bullish trend. Governments and Central banks around the world are only making gold more bullish, not bearish.
Markets almost always move in advance of a major announcement such as new QE and if the overall market declines in a major way the Fed will be in a very difficult situation with elections coming up. They will either have to support growth to prevent job losses, or ignore that mandate or let money leave the market to support bonds. If they let the market go down going into the elections, there will be a major change in the political makeup of Washington and together with massive tax increases beginning next year the market sell off this year will be catastrophic which would force the Fed to begin a massive QE like never before seen. The Fed does not want to do any more QE than they have to and certainly not ever in a massive way.
Clay, thanks for the comments, especially regarding the rebounds of miners. Often in an expanding move in stocks and markets, when you get corrections down, the move back up can be vicious. However, there’s been so much technical damage in the miners and when that happens (cyclical bear) often the bottom takes time to form again and it gives the astute investor time to get in close to the bottom. That applies to any markets or stocks. I’ll be awaiting that opportunity with expectation since I’m sitting on significant cash. My charts should pretty much indicate to me when this sell-off is exhausted. You might watch the $bpgdm which should give you a good idea when this current move down is exhausted. It still shows me we have a ways to move lower along with the GDX and the GDXJ.
Richard, I think that you and I are pretty much saying the same thing. As investors, or speculators as Peter Grandich calls us, we need to be both observant and defensive at this point.
Big Al
Exactly. There will come a time when I’ll be very forceful in encouraging individuals to add to their positions both in the metals and stocks. In fact, I plan on adding to my physical metal positions when gold gets down toward $1600 and silver ducks below $30 in the range of $28-$29. That should happen in the near future, whereas, the miners will probably scrape the bottom for awhile.
HI Clay,
I certainly agree with your and others’ comment that the basic positive fundamentals have not changed one bit.
Big Al
Al, your conversation with Rick Ackerman was interesting. I shorted the bond market this past week but will reverse that trade quickly because of the jobs’ report on this Friday. The Fed cannot afford to let the bond market get out of hand. The “punch bowl” may have been taken away verbally but it still is operative through operation twist—–which is supposed to end. When the conventional market begins its’ downward movement in the next few days, it could become violent since it’s been driven up by traders that’ll want to get out with their profits—–they understand the game and know what happened on the last corrections. This correction will be a minimum of 20%. The Fed will ultimately be forced into talking again about quantitative easing which will put a floor in the conventional markets and the PMs. The next few weeks will demand patience and patience will eventually be rewarded. The bull market in PMs is years away from ending.
Good morning again Richard,
I will be very interested in seeing the direction of the bond market this week. I would bet on your prediction.
Best,
Big Al
I agree with your comments on QE and the precious metals.
I would add that the precious metals have thus far moved largely based on loose monetary policy. With a seemingly ever rising debt ceiling making one think why the heck do you call it a ceiling. The psychological aspect of inflation has yet to accelerate the metals advance. Certainly the recent advance is partially due to psychology however this aspect is currently reserved to a small minority of participants. When the go to sector for a wide range of individual, professional and institutional investors becomes the precious metals is when they will have their most significant advance. The time to divest is when Joe six-pack is buying silver eagles at Leo’s Coin Shop not when Joe six-pack is selling his Josten’s High School ring at Leo’s Pawn Shop. When the mania begins the increased velocity of USD circulation will magnify the monetary expansion now sheltering the greatly expanded money supply. All the fundamentals that have aided the metals decade plus advances will remain in place and the most difficult part of this monetary fiasco will be at hand. When to sell?
Very much on point……
There is an interesting reference to Henry Hazlitt “Economic in One Lesson” at the bottom of A-13 in today’s WSJ under Notable & Quotable…that concludes “All this explains why, when super-inflation has once set in, the value of the monetary unit drops at a far faster rate than the quantity of money either is or can be increased.” Can you believe now Paul Krugman sits in his chair at the NYT?
HI Dennis,
I read Paul Krugman all the time and 99% of the time disagree with him. He is the classic example of a dyed in the wool Keynesian.
Keynesian economics may be considered to work in the short term, but in the long term there is absolutely no reason to believe there is absolutely any value in it.
I agree with your comments about Joe Six Pack and I also agree that an interesting question becomes, “when to sell”.
Thanks for the reference in today’s WSJ. I have not read it yet, but it is next on my list.
Best,
Big Al
BTW- in re your reference to me being in Russia Friday……I was in St. Pete Florida at the Marriot Renaissance-Vinoy.
I conducted a very interesting pummelings of the paper bugs last night while the kids and wife enjoyed a dive-in movie.
I maintained a significant advantage.
I was drinking Bud Light…they had a hard case to defend and the single malts
did not help them whatsoever.
Best comment of the night ” We are yards away from the Florida Holocaust Museum…my question is why are so many people that appreciate the magnitude of that historic tragedy now engage in the precursor activities that caused that
very tregedy? It is akin to a parent telling his children do not smoke and then taking a drag off a cigarette.” One of many interesting salvos…..two converts were won!
Morning Dennis,
Never been to St Pete, Florida so I did not recognize the hotel!
I don’t know man, Bud Light or single malts. To me that is kind of a no brainer!
I guess I probably have more headaches that you!
Have a great trip!
Big Al
P.S. We visited the Holocaust Museum in Washington D.C. and I cannot tell you what a huge impact that had on myself and my family. Those years were a huge black mark and certainly must never, ever be forgotten.
My father talked more about that that any other time in history. He was very bitter about that. He reminded me that it was not just the Jews who were slaughtered but also a fair amount of Russian Christians.
Boy, talk about man’s inhumanity to man! Way too many examples of that throughout history.
Those tragic events are why I always consider every person’s beliefs, backgrounds, etc. That is also why I refuse to believe that I am the prettiest baby in the nursery.
I listen to and read as many analysts as I can. One thing I pay attention to is how their predictions change over time.
February:
We are on the verge of a gold breakout. This is a resumption of the gold run that was interrupted last fall. Look out above. PMs stock, are severely undervalued and are about to lift off. The charts and fundamentals are demanding it.
March:
Analysts who are on the ball and have some guts, realized that a major takedown had occurred. Everyone is scared to be labelled a “conspiracy theorist,” so it takes guts to actually talk about take-downs.
The message was: Ok, this was a bad take-down but there is a screaming demand for gold at these lower prices and the price is going to come roaring back. The comeback was predicted for within days, or next week at the latest. Everything was pointing to it, both fundamentals and technicals. But the drops keep on coming.
April:
Sentiment has settled in on the negative side. Analysts who were majorly bullish on the PMs based on fundamentals and charts, now are talking about intermediate down trends into summer and even autumn. Ostensibly, this is what the charts are telling them now! Yes, yes, yes, LONG TERM we are very bullish but the consolidation (so that’s what it is now) needs to play out some more until we have a really, really strong base to take off of. Sounds like they’ve been burned so many times they would rather just hedge their bets now. Also, the charts have been battered into a shape that they are now genuinely bearish, short term. Now that THEY have accomplished their goal, perhaps there is no need for additional interference for the intermediate term.
Just read an article on FSN titled “Silver’s Trend & the Death of Technical Analysis.” It makes the point that short term charts just don’t work any more. This seems to be the case. But we still look to short term TA as if it had useful predictive powers. I think this is now nonconstructive, but since we have nothing else and since we are deeply conditioned animals, we keep coming back to it as if it could still help us.
Why does short term TA not work anymore? I suggest that it is the frequent interferences by THEM. I’ll come out and say it: the reason nothing works and the reason gold is where It is and not even tracking the increase in money supply (based on the money supply alone, gold should be over $1900) is the continued interference. The mental image I have is of fish in an aquarium where someone has just stirred everything up with a big ladle. Now the water, the plants and the sand are all swirling, the fish are disoriented and can’t tell up from down. We are these fish and are trying to make sense of what is happening. I suggest that what is happening is an attack, and it is this attack that keeps gold down and everyone bewildered. Those on the outside will think more than twice than jumping into this swirling aquarium. But maybe short term TA will begin to resume its predictive powers if the interference has run its course for the time being.
So what we do is wait for the dust to settle and the enemy to run out of ammunition. We keep hearing stories how they are super naked short and in deep trouble. I don’t know if this is true, but sure hope so.
That’s my two bits on it. Enjoy the Easter weekend.
That Peter is worth much more than two bits.
I came out just recently and stated that my personal actions consisted of defense and daily observation. I stated that I would invest in some companies, via private placements, and invest in some others that I thought were truly undervalued.
I put my money where my mouth is and purchased Clifton Star out of the market after my previous announcement that I would be doing that and I took part in two private placements, Canasil Resources and Otis Gold. (Significantly before that stock was issued, I also announced that.)
I think that I will be fine in those three investments, but my horizon is certainly longer that 3 – 6 months!
Time for caution, defense and observation.
Big Al
I am a little tired of reading statements such as “short term charts don’t work anymore” or similar.
Such statements are just BS from people who have never used TA.
Does TA always work? NO and it never has! But I find myself kicking myself for ignoring a TA signal at least on a 10:1 ratio compared to using a TA signal and finding it to be wrong.
Of course, some times the tape is painted at the end of the day or week or towards the end of a trading period. Of course, sometimes there appears to be some manipulation when a 50-day or 20-day moving average comes close to certain values, but it has always been thus. I bought my first stock over fifty years ago. I have been using TA more and more over the last 20 years and have found it more and more useful as I understand more about what is and what is not a good signal.
My problem Mr. Caring (As I very much do!), is that I don’t pretend to understand technical analysis. I certainly do listen to folks like Trader Rog and Rick Ackerman.
What would you suggest as a beginning book on this subject for me to read?
Big Al
I have not seen a good introductory book on the subject of technical analysis, but then I also have not looked in the last decade.
It is worth printing out and having at hand John Murphy’s Ten laws of technical trading, and having a card with Fibonacci numbers on it. Both can be found at stockcharts.com.
CFS, Fair enough, I will do that.
Thanks,
Big Al
CFS,
It sounds like we are not in disagreement at all, but you do seem to have misunderstood my comments to mean that TA (at large) now no longer works (and never will again).
But I disagree strongly with you (and so do seasoned chartist professionals) that TA has always been as temperamental as it is now. Just ask Trader Roger!
Short term charts on gold certainly haven’t worked since last fall. Mr. T.R., I listen closely to his predictions and remember them. His predictions based on TA have not panned out in numerous months.
This means one of two things:
Either he doesn’t know what he’s doing (NOT!)
OR
Something has happened to nullify the best efforts of the pros to make sense of the charts.
And what has happened is the interference I am talking about. You will counter that manipulation has always been around. True enough, but perhaps you will agree that it has not been as concerted and pervasive as we have witnessed it in the gold market.
What’s more, digital trading has made manipulation MUCH easier and efficient than it was in the old days. 70% of all trading is algorithmic.
So, TA still works, in the absence of manipulation. But because of the frequency of manipulation and the ease with which it is accomplished, TA doesn’t work the way it used to. Ask the pros.
Here is the article I was referring to in my original post:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/steve-angelo/silvers-trend-and-the-death-of-technical-analysis
Hi Peter, I been wondering about what the `TA` meant, thank you. Sign language or reading tea leaves were never been my strong point. About manipulation that is something that is discussed quite abit around here. Seeing the conflict of war and sanctions on a country(Iran) and a rather large player in oil/energy, could be playing with a little more than simple poker maybe more like chess. The simple game that no one wins at tick-tack-toe might be playing out too. The X-the-unknown factor, how one pays for the the oil without the US knowing about it too could be playing out as well on a grand scale unknown to the people using the charts not including this factor in them to then factor that in may not be happening. These transactions if suppose gold is used other than operating with some other form of credit could be what might be happening to TA. Just where was gold going before the US got a hair up its a_s to scorn and scream bloody murder toward Iran. It seemed to me it was going out of sight, then crashed as did Europe`s chance to get the energy it needed to hopefully escape to sunnier times, but here again with the US with its loftily ideals came to wreak havoc on the scene again to cry wolf. But what to do with that big bad wolf(Obama`s marxist/fascist state of mind). Hope Ron Paul gets elected and drop kicks the bum out of office.
Morning Denis,
Simplistically speaking, I agree with the last part of your comment. It makes me absolutely sick that our kids are getting killed and killing over in the Middle East.
I say, enough is enough!
Big Al
Good article regarding manipulation.
http://moneymorning.com/2012/04/06/the-who-how-and-why-behind-silver-price-manipulation/
Many thanks for the link, Jerry M!
Best,
Big Al
Mis-Behavior is largely because these kids have hypothyroidism. Here is a YouTube video that explains it. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TyDi31TTABs&feature=youtu.be
Problem is the NURSES work with the drug companies to push Pharmaceutical drugs, which does NOTHING to correct the underlying problems.
Hi Terry,
”Problem is the NURSES work with the drug companies to push Pharmaceutical drugs”,,,,,,
Your point is well taken, but please allow me to elaborate, as I am married to an RN, and have a couple of close friends who are Doctors. We’ve discussed this topic on more than one occasion.
Doctors and Nurses are trained in medical care techniques, protocols, etc. at Universities. Many, if not most, of these teaching insitutions, use curriculums, manuals, materials, etc. that are funded, critiqued, edited and published with the direct ‘financial’ help from drug companies. The Pharmaceutical industry controlls and runs these teaching programs and the information taught. You and I both know that when a student ‘thinks’ he/she has learned something/whatever, from professors that they admire, idolize, and are practically taught to worship, they then accept it as Gospel, and never question it. This is what has happened to our health care system. Doctors and Nurses have been taught almost exclusively from the viewpoint of the Drug industry. The entire system is structured to support that industry, but these medical professionals either don’t realize, or can’t bring themselves to admit, that the health care industry has been coopted by this HUGE special interest. On the part of the Drs and Nurses, I don’t think it’s as much intentional, malicious or nefarious, as much as it is the reality that they are locked into operating within the status quo. It’s how they have been taught and it’s what they know. Additionally, if someone begins to question the system or deviate from standard practice, they will be fired, let go, ostracized, ‘black-balled’, etc, and who wants that. Hope this sheds additional light on this very important issue.
Best
Morning Mr. Smith,
That certainly is part of the problem.
Our youngest daughter is a great example of that. So, Kathy and I know first hand the “push to pharmaceutical drugs”. Not always a good idea, is it!
Big Al
Dividends! Dividends! Dividends! Silver and Golden!!! I just did the simple math on Newmont on Fri and by dumping 1/4 m in US Treasuries (which my mainstream Financial Advisor has me and my family buying in on a monthly program) my income for retirement improves by 1% with some real potential for capital gains plus quite probable Capital Gains. It sure beats the 3 year loss I’m looking at in fixed income before adjustment for inflation but after tax. I’m not a “Gold Bug” but consider myself an investor. If the GDX drops further next week, I think I’m going to start laddering into more Dividend payers. I feel liberated this Easter Weekend as I also dumped my Mainstream Financial Advisor. At retirement, a lot of cash, fixed income in dividend payers who are leaders in their sector and withdrawal of all funds in Pension Plans looks a lot safer and profitable to me than the plan I was on. This makes sense to me in my circumstances and I am not offering advice to anyone. I appreciate the masterful analysis and info you, Rog and your guests bring to the table. Would you consider adding a little more commentary on the “Fixed Income” opportunities in Gold and Silver Companies as it appears to me that this is where the real opportunity lies. Any upside appreciation woulld be the icing on the 2012 Christmas Cake. Highest regards, Ian H.
Hi Ian;
Newmont Mining (NEM) recent $47.73
– quarterly dividend .35 = 1.40 per share (2.9% yield)
When price of gold is between $1700 and $2000 Newmont’s dividend increases/decreases 30 cents per share for every $100 change in price of gold.
When price of gold is between $2000 and $2600 Newmont’s dividend increases/decreases 40 cents per share for every $100 change in price of gold.
In the $2500 to $2600 price range for gold, Newmont’s dividend will be $4.70 per share.
Can we say “Merry Christmas”?
Disclosure: I do NOT own any Newmont shares directly, but they are part of my mutual fund holdings.
That 2500 level dividend is 10 percent yield at today’s entry level. Think ahead.
Morning Ian,
Many thanks for your insights.
Of course I will present more information of fixed income opportunities in gold and silver companies.
Best to you my friend,
Big Al
Big Al,
Great show…again, my friend. Hey Al, as a ardent, active listener and participant of the show, I would like to add my humble support to the idea of looking at fixed income opportunities in G and S (for mom). Great Idea! Thanks..continued success.
All the best,
Marc
Many thanks for the kind words Marc.
Okay, Kathy and I will buy the beer at the game!
Big Al
Hey Big Al,
I hate to have to report this but scandal has hit the Ron Paul campaign
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcBb3PudTcA
Ken
Just classic!.. LOL.I love your pic brother….
PS Where in the ____ have you been!
All the best
Marc
Thanks, Marc. And I think that Buddy Honeycutt could be my long lost brother. 🙂
I’ve been hanging in there (by the neck sometimes it feels like).
Been busy with work. It’s been pretty tough but I guess it is better than having no income.
Speaking of which I need to get my taxes done. After all, someone’s gotta pay for the welfare/warfare state. So it’s time to pay yet more to the criminals in DC and my state capitol.
Hey Ken,
Thanks, thanks and more thanks!
Big Al
Guess it is all over for him! Although it was not all over for President Clinton!
Big Al
Thanx Irwin & Al! I now always type out the Christ in Christmas as does Irwin, I see. I used to be lazy & type “Xmas” but came to the conclusion that it is better to be recognized for “Principles”. I do agree that we need to stay focused on the investing subjects at issue. Still, Highest Regards.
Yep Ian, we certainly do need to stay focused on the investing subjects at issue.
Big Al
I enjoyed listening to your program with Dr. Clete Bulach. Also, your other topics on metals.
Just this week, I listened to a beautiful teacher from Japan. I wanted to share it with you and Dr. Bulach. It’s a “Must-See Documentary”, from James Corbet. I believe these young Japanese students have learned to work together and grow emotionally. Now, Japan is turn upside down.
This country has a long way to go in education.
Happy Easter,
A couple of comments on the ‘education industry’ or the ‘education industrial complex’ that is our state school and college system in the United Kingdom:
1) This Easter the children had two weeks’ holiday. The techers get two weeks also, to get away on a nice holiday. On the Monday when they are due to go baclk, the kids miss another day at school and have to stay at home because the teachers are on a ‘Training Day’. How ridiculous is that? Why do they disrupt the kids’ education with a training day when the teachers have all this time off already? They should have the training days in the teacher’s vacation! They get 14 weeks’ holiday a year! Only in a state system would this be possible. The system is controlled by the state and the teachers’ unions and stuff the kids.
2) Parent’s lack of incentive to contribute in the state education of their children. This is because it is state controlled and massivly over-regulated. Secondly it is because the parents do not directly pay for the education of their own children and they have no skin in the game. It is the state’s responsibility. Education needs to be taken from the state altogether.
Hi Al, liked Greenlight Resources & Westhaven Ven
Sorry Al, oooops for above hit button to soon. Wanting to comment on them later, but I`m interested in them. Good show as a matter a fact like this better than the politics for a change.
Dennis, you will definitely be seeing more of this in the future.
Best,
Big Al
Westhaven sounded interesting. I like the looks of the people and projects.
JMHO
This should cheer everyone up…maybe. VERY, VERY, VERY INTERESTING!!
http://financialservices.house.gov/UploadedFiles/HHRG-112-BA-WState-DGenova-20120328.pdf
Mr. Alan, if I ever acted that way in my business dealings I would be in jail today. Not fair is it! I am more than just a little angry, my friend. Thank you for posting this.
Big Al
Hi Al, to add to what I`ve said above on TA topic just wait and see what happens to when Asia not just the BRICS stop buying our treasury bonds that are needed to keep the US afloat, my what a crash that it will be to the dollar and bond market. People will be jumping off the ship looking for values out there. Gold/Silver/PGM`s/rare earths anything of lasting value will look good. And its coming, the signs of the times, panic all around the globe and our nations leaders off on million dollar vacations payed for via the taxpayer thank you sir Baron von Obama.
HI Denis,
Yep, I am waiting for that to happen also.
Big Al
Al,
I like the fact that you stop for a moment to look at education in America. If anyone looks around, we can see the same results (dropouts, low reading-writing levels, dis-interest in science, etc., etc.) in all western countries. I`ve many presentations comparing the wester system with that of Asia. After finding the contributions done by George Louis Beer, late 19th century researcher, and Charlotte Thomson Iserbyt, former Senior Policy Advisor in the U.S. Department of Education, as well as others, I conclude none of the problems and poor results of public education in the western world are accidents. I am always surprised to hear people with titles such as “Dr.” make no effort to research the history of a system, what influenced it over many decades, what may be the long trends at the root of a problem. Instead, I hear people with blinders talk about a symptom and how to treat it, instead of a cure.
That being said, I found after a year of research, what I believe to be the approach that may give our children a fighting chance to regain control of their society and their lives:
Principle Approach Education:
“Places the responsibility of the character and preservation of our Republic upon the parent and educator by demonstrating the consistent classroom government and self-government that respond to the admonition of America’s founding father, Samuel Adams, “to teach our little boys and girls the exalted virtues of the Christian system and the art of self-government.” “(Boston, 1790)
http://www.principleapproach.tv/
There are many programs out there for the 1.some millions homeschooled kids in america. This program should be on the list of anyone considering this option.
And by the way, if anything was easy, everybody would do it.
Thanks Missivedutexas,
Our kids do need a fighting chance to regain control of their society and their lives.
I believe that the Principle Approach you mentioned is what Clete was saying.
Am I correct?
Big Al
I’ve posted this elsewhere here AL because I think it is critical for your folks to consider
There are many shareholders who are struggling with mining share prices and many prognosticators are saying that we are at the bottom of this cycle wave.
Yet when I look at insider trading reports, very very few CEO’s are buying their own shares. If these stocks were such a great deal then these smart execs would be buying the farm, yet they do not.
This is a greater tell of the true nature of their shares than anything else. Before you invest in any junior I would recommend you look at the insider trading reports.
Only these execs know the real story. If they ain’t buying neither should you. IMHO
Happy investing.
Also, one other thing. Several technical blogger i subscribe to have just said on Friday that the bear market is miners is here and they are leading the genrela markets into the toilet.
They are recommending 100% cash for 18 months. Catching a falling knife will continue according to them. Interesting opinion IMHO. Kinda males sense since many many miners are 60% down in 6 months.
Morning Maritimer,
I will report on the insider trading reports tomorrow or the next day!
Great idea on your part.
Big Al
Well, I am not so inclined to agree with Maritimer on this issue. Yes, insider buying is important to follow and says a lot about a company. But I follow 24 different companies right now and 17 of those companies show VERY STRONG, if not huge insider buying. Huge – like 300,000 shares plus for $1.28, or another like this: 1,000,000 shares at $0.79. THAT’S DEFINITELY NOT CHUMP CHANGE! I think that one has to really understand and know the company they are invested in. If it’s just granting stock options to its administration, then i don’t really call that a strong company. But when you have share buying like I just mentioned, then that suggests a lot about a company and where the administration thinks its going.
As far as the general markets heading lower….I don’t think it is going to go as low as people think it is, at least not for the time being. I would not be the slightest bit surprised to see the general markets begin their ascent on Tuesday next week. Markets are discounting mechanisms, so even if the jobs report on Friday stank, some investors think that is a good thing because now believe EVEN MORE that the FED will print money sooner rather than later. Some investors are cautious so, they will probably pull their money out. Futures dropped on very light volume, and the SP500 closed even on the day Friday. Could we head lower on Monday? Sure, we could. But a 20% to 30% drop? I don’t know about that. Holding cash though is a wise decision. There is just too much fear right now. Markets don’t go where people think they will go UNTIL everyone begins to think the opposite. Are we do for a correction? OH YEAH, but we have been needing a correction for quite some time. So, while we could drop 5 to 7 percent…maybe 10%, I don’t see the markets going that much further down UNTIL everyone feels it’s safe to get back in. Too much fear…too much fear. That’s my two cents worth.
BTW,
Be greedy while others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy….who said that…UMMM..oh yeah, the “paper asset king” himself – Warren Buffett. Hey, we can learn something from the guy who thinks that gold is a ‘barbarous relic”. Mining shares – anyone!
All the best, on this blessed Easter day.
Marc
Howdy Marc!
Hope your Easter weekend was good! I honestly don’t think that ol’ Warren Buffet thinks gold is a “barbarous relic” as he so often likes to trumpet on MSM. His father Howard has a great book he wrote IN SUPPORT of the gold standard, I don’t know if you have read it. I think it was written in 1953(?). I believe (and I would bet you do to) that ol’ Warren just talks that way to get all the sheeple away from true money.
Howdy doo to you too – Mr. Mark,
You could very well be right! Didnt Buffett buy A LOT of silver at the start of the bull market – he has his basis covered I am sure!
All the best,
Marc
I agree, Mark. In addition, there are legitimate reasons why insiders may not be buying when we think they should be. First, many managers are as clueless as the general population and are content to just do their job. This is obviously not the ideal, but it’s common. On the other hand, there are those that are already “in” in a big way and have been for a long time. The Reid brothers of GORO are a good example. You won’t see them buying any time soon. Then there are options to consider. I don’t like them much, but many insiders have plenty of exposure, albeit risk-free exposure, to their companies. So insider activity is very much worth monitoring, but conclusions must be drawn carefully.
On another note, I think this week will end higher. The HUI just finished lower for the 6th week in a row. This is a first for the entire bull market. You’d have to go all the way back to the 4th quarter of 1998 to find the last time this happened (that drop lasted 7 weeks). In addition, we just had the first close below the 200 week moving average since the summer of 2009. Big money is surely chomping at the bit to get in. So It will be very interesting to see how much strength the miners show this week, not just whether or not they close higher. The character of the market should provide some clues as to what the short term picture holds.
And that’s my two cents. Now we’re even!
Cheers!
@Al – No.
What Dr. Bulach addresses is one small part of a system now mainly centralized in the district of criminals that removes control on what, when and how things are taught at your neighborhood school. Like a band-aid used to cure a massively bleeding wound. The Principle Approach stops the bleeding and puts in place healing methods.
10th plank of the communist manifesto
“Free education for all children in public schools. Abolition of children’s factory labor in its present form. Combination of education with industrial production.”
Some of the findings of George Louis Beer and Alexander DeTocqueville: Americans were the greatest independant thinkers and most were schooled at home.
“Through the institution of compulsory state education, the child is to be molded like wax into the shape desired by the state and its educational elite. We should not believe that because ours is a freer, more democratic society, the same imprinting procedure has not occurred even here, in America. Every generation of school-age children has imprinted upon it a politically correct ideology concerning America’s past and the sanctity of the role of the state in society. Practically every child in the public school system learns that the “robber barons” of the 19th century exploited the common working man; that unregulated capitalism needed to be harnessed by enlightened government regulation beginning in the Progressive era at the turn of the century; that wild Wall Street speculation was a primary cause of the Great Depression; that only Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal saved America from catastrophe; and that American intervention in foreign wars has been necessary and inevitable, with the United States government required to be a global leader and an occasional world policeman.” – Richard M. Ebeling
John Dewey, Pragmatism, and Progressive Education Quotes
“If they embark on this course the difference between the old and the new education will be an important one. Where the old initiated, the new merely ‘conditions’. The old dealt with its pupils as grown birds deal with young birds when they teach them to fly; the new deals with them more as the poultry-keeper deals with young birds- making them thus or thus for purposes of which the birds know nothing. In a word, the old was a kind of propagation-men transmitting manhood to men; the new is merely propaganda.” C. S. Lewis – The Abolition of Man – 1944
John Dewey is the father of progressive education, and that is what drives all efforts in the western world.
“I do not see how any honest educational reformer in western countries can deny that the greatest practical obstacle in the way of introducing into schools that connection with social life which he regards as desirable is the great part played by personal competition and desire for private profit in our economic life. This fact almost makes it necessary that in important respects school activities should be protected from social contacts and connections, instead of being organized to create them. The Russian educational situation is enough to convert one to the idea that only in a society based upon the cooperative principle can the ideals of educational reformers be adequately carried into operation.”
John Dewey – Impressions of Soviet Russia and the Revolutionary World – The New Republic – 1929
Missivedutexas, I agree with what you wrote above. And, I have for a long time.
I understood Clete to be discussing not the curriculum that is being taught, but the atmosphere in the classroom.
Remember we put our money where our mouth is and our kids went to private schools since day one.
Today all our girls are clear thinking; pretty conservative in their politics; and quite successful for their respective ages. (27 to 45).
It can get better than that, but I am not sure how.
Big Al
Hey all,
Charles Nenner the independent analysis (formerly of GS) forecasted the bottom for gold within 10 days to 2 weeks on an interview- March 28 on the BNN. That would put us at about this date….Now, let’s see what happens…I think (?) he expects this little uptick to run until mid May. BTW, his forecasting model is based on “written in stone” business cycles that are NOT affected by everyday news and noise. Kinda like a ‘fate is sealed” cyclical pattern. Pretty interesting – lets see how it shakes out starting this week. Now its off to bed. Good nite.
Marc
Al.
Not sure about what is “better”, I just know the current public school system is part of the problem, not the solution. As we all know in the investment community, and especially those involved in auditing, the “tone at the top” will infect the whole organization. The “tone at the top” of the education systems of the western world aims at “training”, not “educating”.
For well informed families, the choice is to have both parents participate in the rat race or secure a home where knowledge and wisdom are sought and valued.
Like I said before, if it was easy, everybody would do it.
I am glad that Clifton is getting some coverage. Harry really mismanaged the marketing of this stock, but then again he’s a very honest knowledgable geologist.
Getting it stuck on the TSX was a mess as well-due to retarded paperwork mistakes-so thank the Gods Michel is running the show and allowing Harry to do what he does best.
I have had a chance to meet Harry and some of the board.
They are fully aware of how historically the gold miner market will pull really well in the coming decades-since we are in a “real”money supply implosion and debt disaster.
No matter how they try and manipulate it, the central banks will have to illegalize gold to stop the mania. Fiat currency,debt overburden, lack of “real” assets and money backing the banks and system will make metals and energy zoom.
Clifton alos knows it needs to get a mill running and use their tailings as a cash register. I believe they are raising 20 mill to get a mill up before they get squeezed in the mania. Gold is no good unless you have system for getting it into the money system.
Al, I don’t often agree with your guests, trader Rog and David Morgan, but everything David said today is spot on. According to my analysis, he is correct in a lot of the feelings he expressed today. Weeks ago I was stating that we would begin a long consolidation period in the PMs that would extend into months. The PM stocks have further to fall (according to my charts) and there will be some fantastic buys in the future….. I know this period is difficult for some but there’ll become a time in the future when the opportunities will be fabulous especially for those with some cash. Two observations. When gold spiked a little the end of the week, miners (GDX) didn’t respond much—-not a good omen yet. Also, you should be ready for a sell-off in the conventional markets starting monday ( jobs report should be one of the coming catalysts along with a poorer earnings quarter then expected)—when the conventional markets go, you shouldn’t see any meaningful movement up in the PMs and/or the miners. They both should trend down with the conventional markets. When these markets bottom out in late summer, it’ll be the buying opportunity of our lifetime.