This week we begin discussing more companies
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In this show Al discusses:
- Segment 1 – Peter Grandich reaffirms what Big Al said on Marketwatch on Thursday. We are still in the “mother” of all bull markets for gold and silver.
- Segment 2 – Brien Lundin of the New Orleans Investment Conference discusses the connection between politics and gold.
- Segment 3 – Rick Ackerman sees a floor for silver.
- Segment 4 – Trader Rog alerts listeners to, what he feels, is a dramatic economic situation unfolding in the United Kingdom.
- Segment 5 – Laurentian Bank of Canada initiates research coverage on American Manganese. Larry Reaugh explains why.
- Segment 6 – Joshua Bleak, President of Passport Potash, provides an update on his Arizona based company.
- Segment 7 – Rob Grey of Exeter Resources and Extore Gold provides on update on his companies.
- Segment 8 – Big Al introduces a new segment pertaining to the energy with Keith Schaefer.
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I would generally agree, however, even Hamilton’s great work will lose it’s value in a currency crisis — or even something close.
For the last ten years, the precious metals were the best place to be. Soon they might be the only place to be. Not even greed motivates like fear. Immense (and growing) liquidity wants into the metals. This isn’t the sleepy space that it was even five years ago.
So the crashes will always occur, but the time required to recover will probably shrink with each event.
Matthew,
I could not agree more — the durations of times in between crashes WILL indeed be shorter. Still, one has to respect the technicals. There were a large number of people on forums and even some professionals maintaining that the credit context behind this silver run assured it would continue — wrong! — this is a disguised version of “this time is different” thinking, in my book. I don’t know… I tried to warn some people about it and was pretty much dismissed and made to feel like a bear! But long term I’m as bullish on silver as anyone.
Good Morning Dirk B and Matthew,
Sorry I did not respond sooner. I spent the day yesterday helping our youngest try to find a car. Boy, talk about sticker shock and dealing with difficult folks.
Anyway, I am on record as saying that you don’t buy silver worrying about necessarily trying to make profits so you can buy fancy cars, etc. I buy silver because it is insurance against a break down of the currency system. if, God forbid, we have a currency collapse Big Al and the little blond lady are still going to be able to buy food. It is as simple as that. If silver ran up to $100/ounce and I had a huge profit, would I sell and buy an Aston Martin? Not a chance! Silver reporesents nothing more to me than a very safe medium of exchange.
Watch the price when more than a couple percent of us come to this same conclusion!
Purely and simply, I believe that anyone who does not own some silver is not proteecting themselves or their families.
Big Al
But Al, with due respect, history shows that gold holds value much better than silver during downturns, and performs much better as insurance. True, if there is a complete societal collapse, silver will be of monetary value as well. David Morgan advocates owning both, and I find that hard to disagree with. But silver is the one capable of making extreme capital gains. And it’s more than just inflation — and ounce of silver bought maybe two gallons of gas in ca ~2003; before last week’s crash, it bought over 10 gallons where I live.
Hi Dirk B,
I don’t disagree. I simply believe that, let’s say, having $20k or so of silver rounds makes sense. In the context of what I was saying, I am not refering to that amount of silver rounds as being in the investment category.
I would add that $20 k is not at all an absolute number. For some people an appropriate number would be $5k. Depends on what you are comfortable with.
Regarding gold holding its value better, I would suggest that five years ago gold
was selling at around $600 and today it is trading at roughly $1500. Up 2 1/2 times. Silver was selling around $4 and today is about $35. Up about 9 times.
Best
Big Al
Both hold their value well. Gold will always be more stable, and is therefore better money. This is due to a much larger above ground supply AND a much smaller below ground supply. Both make it MUCH harder to inflate the supply. The lack of industrial demand and huge supply make it impossible to contract (deflate) the supply.
Forget about the $ price, gold’s VALUE is remarkably stable. For instance, during a bear market in financial assets, whether deflationary as in the 1930’s, or inflationary as in the 1970’s, investors who remain long are likely to lose 80-90% of their value. In the ’30’s, the dow fell almost 90% versus both gold and the dollar. From the 1966 peak to 1980, the dow fell over 90% versus gold, but was down only about 15% measured in dollars. We know that gold provided the true measure of performance because it held it’s value against other commodities. The dollar, on the other hand, lost value when measured in almost ANYTHING. Conversely, during a bear market in gold, the investor who remains long doesn’t fare nearly so poorly. This is because a bear market for gold generally comes with a bear market for the entire commodities complex — so gold’s real value remains largely intact. What the gold holder really suffers in this environment is an underperformance versus financial assets. Rather than losing 90%, one merely endures a missed opportunity.
Al, I agree about silver’s increase in the past decade, but I was talking about the downturns such as the 2008 credit crisis, where gold held up much better. If I’m not mistaken, I believe gold was the only asset that actually had a YOY increase for 2008.
But I think basically we are in complete agreement. Or close enough!
Dick,
good post..good look at history2006…..this is only shake out time for weak hands..
stay long…you won’t go wrong. Leverage won’t work with silver. CASH AS YOU GO.
PAY FOR YOUR SILVER WITH CASH…AND HANG ON
Hi Jerry,
“PAY FOR YOUR SILVER WITH CASH…AND HANG ON.
Man, I could not agree with you on this one more!
Big Al
THANKS AL……
HI AL. Re. segment 1, with You & PETER. (WITH REGARDS TO THE MEDIA). I think anybody with half a brain, must realise that over 80% of the WORLDS MEDIA, is owned & controlled, by the same people,that own & control all all of the WESTERN GOVERMENTS, & a lot more of the rest. Why does the MAINSTREAM PRESS , keep slamming GOLD & SILVER ? Could it be because , “THEY THE CARTEL”, dont want the masses to own REAL MONEY!While “THEY keep buying more. If its rubbish (GOLD &SILVER), as they say. Then why are all the central banks & huge hedge funds buying so much.It sounds to me that the NEW WORLD CURRENCY, If!!! or When!!! it comes will be linked to Gold & Silver. Why all the margin hikes over the last couple of weeks? They said it was because of risk, WHAT! When you have the CME>COMAX>J.P.MORGAN linked together i smell a rat , i think it was to slam the prices down , shake out the small & medium players, so the BIG BOYS could rush in and buy cheap. I would like to hear peoples opinion on this…..Tony…. P.S. AL. GREAT FIRST SEGMENT.
Good morning saneirishanthony,
Want my opinion? Okay my friend, YOU MAKE A VERY GOOD POINT!
Have a wonderful rest of the weekend,
Big Al
Thanks for the great site! Very informative. Especially love Rog’s daily market close. Rog, I think the UK inflation rate you quoted was an annual rate, not a one-month rate. If I understand http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=19 correctly, the 4.0% CPI for March was the percentage change from March 2010 to March 2011. Last time I saw official inflation figures from China, they also gave a 12-month percentage.
Hi Liz,
You are correct and I have already mentioned this to Trader Rog,
Big Al
Dear Roger,
With regard to Segment 4, the 4%+ inflation figures are year on year, given out every month.
Take a look here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12815228
That article shows annual inflation. The year on year figure increased from January to February 4% to 4.4% nonsense CPI and 5.1 to 5.5% RPI which is more similar to that used in the 1970s.
This walesonline article says the UK had 0.8% monthly inflaiton for manufacturers’ prices, probbaly an equivalent to your PPI Producers’ Price Index. That’s 10% per year compounded annualised.
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/interest-rates
No rise in interest rates yet and maybe getting less likely, depite higher inflation. That is a very telling situation and hints at terrible trouble to come with consumer commodity price inflation and/or property price falls.
Articles linked from there also say:
House prices ‘to fall for the next 5 years’
‘No interest rate rise until Christmas’
So everything is going up in price except property!
That’s about what one might expect since property has been more leveraged than anything for 20 years.
HI AL. Me again. Re.segment 2 Please dont anybody take offence to this. I think its time the good people of AMERICA ,Got off their arses & got out on the
Hi again saneanthony,
Your comment got cut off. Please resubmit.
Big Al
Great show. Could you please give the dates for New Orleans Investment Conference in October, 2011? Will attend.
Hi Paul,
End of October. Believe it starts on th 26th.
See you there,
Big Al
STREETS , And tell your GOVERMENT we are not going to tolerate you sitting on your hands for the next 18 months. Start sorting this mess out NOW, or your all FIRED 1st, Task get rid of the fed they are making things worse. 2th, if any of you have the balls, tell the SHADOW GOVERMENT to sod off. Europe is in the same mess, but at least the goverments are trying to do something about it. The people are not happy about it, but they can see there is no other choice. We all have to take the nasty tasting medicine before we get better. Sorry about the cock-up with this blog.
Okay, I believe it is already starting to happen. Witness the WSJ’s op-eds discussing the current govt actions.
The problem here in the U.S., in my opinion, is that too many folks are involvd in some type of entitlement program and are afraid to rock the boat, As an example, witness the number of people on the food stamp program. (I believe it is one in seven.) Look at the current 9% unemployment rate.
We will get out of this, but it is going to take some time. I do agree with you that people need to speak out. No violence however! We don’t need another situation like we had a few years back in New Orleans. Got to bee civil.
Best,
Big Al
madirishtony,
great to hear from you…..Your assumption is that the main street people are smart enough to understand what is happening to our world……They are not…….. this is not going to change…
You will need over 50% to change things…..think about it ….50% ….. no way…are
there 50% that even know what is going on …..or want a change…that would take to much time for them to learn about why they would want a change…they would have to give some time up from the sports , girl and wine …family and friend
to comprehend the future challenge that face American….
Secure you future and invest in metals and stop thinking mankind is going to wake up……they will not.,,,because they know not.
Hi Jerry,
Give up time from wine? Why would anyone want to even consider that?
Your comments about 50% is a statistic that I completely agree with.
Big Al
WELL OK….SCRATCH THE WINE…FROM THE LIST….OTHER WISE WE WOULD ALL GO CRAZY.
You people read this:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty050611.html
I sure wish this Robert J. Moriarty fellow could tell us how he feels without sugar coating it! 🙂
I hope he doesn’t get so angry that he flies an airplane (or should that be error plane?) under the Eiffel Tower.
Hi Ken,
I read Bob’s article. I continue to say that I do not buy silver with the idea of making a profit. I buy silver because IF CURRENCY COLLAPSES SILVER ROUNDS WILL BUY FOOD. SIMPLE AS THAT.
Yep, Bob is very opinionated and passionate about what he believes. Agree or disagree he is worth reading. (I am on record as stating that I do not agree with everything he says. That is why I am not on his site!)
Best,
Big Al
Ken,
Bob assumes that you and me and others…just fell off the turnup truck yesterday…
His general comments,,,,are made to those who just got in…and were
leveraged… if you bought with cash you have not lost anything…it is just a correction and anyone that is in the market and been around ,knows that
it is volital,,,so what…..NO ONE KNOWS IT ALL INCLUDING BOB. and if they say they
do you need to find someone else to listen to ….The billionaires can yank us around for a while….but , they are not the only smart men in the room…they all have a game plan and even billionairs go bankrupt.,
Kudos on the energy segment idea!
Hi Matt,
I agree with you. I have focused on precious metals and politics in the past and I realized lately that I need to expand the subject matter to include energy issues.
Have a great rest of the weekend,
Big Al
HI KEN. The man is having a rant , just like i do , but he is just voicing his opinion, just like i do. My opinion may be the opposite to his. But pray tell me . Can anybody tell me which of us is right?. Respect to you………….
Apples and oranges in my book. Your rants appear to be born of a desire for social/political justice. Bob’s rants are born of anger caused by being wrong. His rants are self-serving and pointless. He could say all the same things without making silver investors his enemy. He reminds me of the deflationists a couple years ago — needlessly combative. In his deluded, ego-driven mind, he’s right and the market is wrong. The market HAS to be wrong; it did hand those silver bugs huge gains, didn’t it? Bob can’t stand the fact that even the illiterate, unsophisticated silver investor who bought at $19 is wiser than he is. He’s probably trapped in a short put on at $19 or $20. Thanks to the advice of that other wizard, Bob Hoye, of course.
Today he’s pumping a stock that more than doubled in the last two days. Sure, this practice is common, and sure this stock could go 10 bagger from here. The point is, why didn’t he say “buy” three days ago or three months ago? Bob is not an educator. He’s an operator.
No accomplishment is too small for Bob to point-out and play-up. He said: “But what do I know; I was just the guy warning 6 weeks ago that silver was getting frothy?”
What he does not mention is his advice 8 weeks ago. On the March 5 KER, he stated that at a price of $35, we should not be thinking about $50, we should be thinking about $20, and should sell. Well we’re STILL above $35 even AFTER the crash. Does he blame Hoye? Of course not. He blames everyone who did not cooperate with His Highness the Duke of Vancouver.
That’s it for MY rant.
P.s. – YOU are right, madirishtony!
Matthew, you are right on about Bob. He heard commentary from some high-powered stats modeller in March about commodities topping about and bought it lock-stock-n-barrel — there was no reason necessarily to sell right then. That doesn’t make him prophetic now.
Hi Matthew,
What is the name of the company that you refered to?
Big Al
Hi Al,
It was a natgas play called CBM Asia Development (TCF.v). It opened at .20 on Thursday and closed at .445 on Friday.
Thanks Matthew,
Notice how Bob wrote in his rant about silver that the next phase could cause silver to go back up to much higher levels but that would just be a prelude for the REAL FALL. Hard to be wrong when you state it like that. If silver goes up, Bob is correct and then, if silver goes back down, he will be right again.
He told me a number of years ago that a collapse of the banking system was right around the corner. In a sense he was correct. But notice, most of them are still standing. I still have our checking accounts at Wells Fargo. It is all semantics and that is why I listen to ALL sides of the story.
Big Al
Hi Al,
Bob is always very dramatic. Under your May 6th show I commented on that assertion of his about a “real crash” in silver.
As you can probably tell, I am very bullish on silver. In fact, I think what we are seeing may be a retest of the February breakout of the channel on the monthly chart that goes back to 2004. Sentiment seems supportive, as there aren’t many others who appear convinced of anything good lately. I think the stock market is heading much higher as well. The great reflation is on, but no one’s in the mood! Recognition is zero. The “wall of worry” is intact. The set-up is perfect.
Matthew
saneirishanthony,
Yup, need to visit ALL SIDES of every story. Disagree with someone? Fine, but the only way to come to a truly informed space is to first listen to everyone.
Keep em coming,
Big Al
great show … the perspective is excellent!
Here’s a hilarious animation exhorting folks to get even with the banksters and government:
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-regain-your.html
HI SILBERBLICK. Just tried to watch it , but the video is not available, perhaps the powers that be, have pulled it. Good health.
HI AL & ROG. ROG, You are 100% right, i live here in the U.K. Everything you said is correct its a mess over here at the moment, & its going to get a lot worse. I dont think the vast amount of AMERICANS realise just how bad it is in most of EUROPE. Mark my words this is coming to AMERICA, & when it does, THEN YOU WILL SEE THE PEOPLE TAKE TO THE STREETS. Sorry for being a doom & gloom merchant. Regards….Tony.
Big Al,
check out Paul Waldie c/o BNN..Professor Roger Martin (Dean of te Rotman School-Univ of Toronto)..he’s written a Book aptly titled..Fixing the Game-What Capitalism can learn from the NFL…this interview struck a cord with me..his speech delivery was really well presented….I am an exhauster retail investor but you and others..the voice in the wilderness have been very helpful.
Grandich would really appreciate the NFL component to Dr.Martin’s thesis..the main premise here being the real Resource market and the Gamers (likethe Bookies that bet the NFL-guidance/expectations)..i believe this interview of the above would create a tie in or an epiphany for some of us..interview at BNN May-5-2011 1:00-1:30 audio/video..from an exhausted retail investor.!!
thanks big Al for supporting the small guy
mike
Hi MIke,
I will watch the video interview. Thanks for bringing it to all of our attentions.
Have a great weekend,
Big Al
Hi Al
Having seen what has happened in the commodities market over the past week – the word market is a complete misnomer – one can only hold their heads in complete despair. This is not a market it’s a circus. While i understand that there is risk in anything we do, we take on risk knowing certain things. If we drive a car we know there is inherent risk in driving but we take this risk knowing certain facts such as the brakes will work when we need them to. Just think what would happen if someone was selling cars knowing that the brakes had been tampered with but they failed to tell us.
This is what is happening in these markets; someone is tampering with the information and processes and in turn, as with the car, screwing with peoples lives and livelihoods. Oh we didn’t tell you that we have systems in place designed specifically to take your money and not necessarily give it back to you loser. This is why I have taken the time to educate myself and not take advice from any so called professional but that doesn’t lessen my outrage as to what has gone on. It’s pathetic.
While there are good honest people going about their lives trying to make a living and providing for their families there are people out there planning and scheming, sitting in board rooms, 24/7, working out ways to rip people off from their hard earned wages be it directly or indirectly.
Part of the problem lays well within the industry that you talk about all the time (I’m not having a go at you). The financial industry should be at the forefront at providing measures to regulate more and stopping this nonsense type of trading such as naked shorts, cheetah trading, borrowing stocks or commodities for trading etc as they all serve to distort the market both on the up side and down side.
This is not a level playing field and it seems that nothing has been learnt or has changed since 2007. The whole thing is just a joke confirmed by the fact that there doesn’t seem to be any outrage or surprise in the media. The commentary is just “oh well” silver went down today over 10 percent big deal.
What happens when the retail investor starts to hoard their money and start to say no to all these suits in the industry who take absolutely no responsibility for their actions and moreover, never seem to be made accountable. It’s just so weak and gutless.
TW
Good Morning TW,
I have a number of comments.
First of all, regarding the “suits in the industry” I personally find it totally incomprehensible that so damn many failures were actually rewarded. That, in my opinion, is absolutely terrible.
Regarding the level playing field, I would suggest that if a person is a serious investor, he/she can learn enough that they can pretty much level the playing field. The trick is to be completely unemotional; study as much as you possibly can; take the advice of proven experts; and, consider all aspects of what you are doing.
Has worked for me.
Best,
Big Al
Thanks Al
Where do people find the time in their busy lives to compete with those in the finance industry. Many people are working hard at their own jobs and have very little spare time to educate themselves to a level that makes them capable of making valued decisions. They, by default, have to place a lot of trust in people who should have their interests in hand. If i was to do my job in the same way that some of these people are doing it, I would be in jail and destitute.
Of late technology has become endemic within markets. I have all my investments in Australia and constantly see robot trading and so called cheetah trading making it difficult for people to make sense of what is going on. Volumes as low as 1 share being purchased or sold at strategic times seem to be able to set the trend for the day. Trading systems being raided by those who take advantage of all those sheople out there following the same information. I think it’s about time that the professional advisers or proven experts as you call them stand up and speak out against those who are hijacking the system.
I agree, educate yourself as I try to, do your research and above all back yourself and don’t be led astray by sudden market moves and the micro news events of the day. Someone is always trying to head fake you out of your money Your show, inter alia, forms part of my education.
Sorry if this all sounds like a rant and somewhat cynical – which it probably is – but sometimes enough is enough.
All the best
Tony
Hi Tony,
Listen to my Daily Editorial today. I will address this issue with a couple of friends.
Best,
Big Al
@madirishtony
Thanks for the heads up.
Here is the unbroken link of the hilarious animation … “get even with the banksters and government.”
http://thesilvergoldhedge.blogspot.com/2011/05/join-sla-to-get-even-and-regain-your.html
AL,,
THANKS FOR A GREAT SHOW THIS WEEKEND ,,,AND PLATFORM TO VOICE OUR CONCERNS AND OPIONS. KEEP UP THE GREAT WORK AND SOON OR LATER WE WILL SUPPORT YOUR ADVERTISERS…VIA THE PURCHASE OF SOME OF THEIR STOCKS…
I THINK THE TIME IS APPROACHING THAT EVERYONE WILL WANT TO BE IN STOCKS FOR THE BIG UPLIFT THAT WILL TAKE PLACE, WHEN THE PUBLIC BECOMES AWARE AND THE NEXT PHASE TAKES PLACE.
RESPECTFULLY AS AWAY..
Jerry,
You’re a good guy. Like to meet you someday.
Best,
Big Al
Hopefully we will meet before we get to heaven….share some wine … and laugh at the world , enjoy our spouses. kids, and friends. and remember that silver was just a conduit….for a happy life before the Lord calls us home and we get done what the Lord would have us do.
Respectfully as always
Hi Jerry,
This was one of the first comments I read on Monday morning. Thank you for making my day, my friend.
God Bless,
Big Al
thanks AL
Thanks man thats great of you and I am subbed to you so I know I have a few more vids coinmg and this is the first time I have ever heard of this camera it looks very nice but does it have hd
Hi, Al and Trader Rog,
Thank you for a great show. It is great that you had Keith Schaefe on the show. A segment on energy companies gives us another segment of the markets to think about. Please have him on again.
Good morning N in Van,
Keith will be doing a segment on the show every week from now on.
Thanks, for the comments,
Big All
Greetings and Salutations to Big Al and Trader Rog,
Man, you gentlemen just keep getting better and better. Keep up the yoman’s work with Kereport!!
Thanks too, all you fellow bloggers. You have made this website even better by your input, analysis, and contributions of all persuasions. Kereport is expanding and growing into new arenas.
Well, I checked out 321 gold and read Bob Moriarty. I had to after reading so much here about him. I came away really pitying the guy. He sounds like he’s bound up tight regarding his silver position. I would never want to be so heavily invested in a position that my emotions overrule common sense and reason. Big Al and Trader Rog have consistently said over the years, “don’t get emotionally attached to your position or to any single company”. I’m sure Bob is a reasonable and intelligent guy under less stressful conditions. He needs our prayers.
Blessings to all,
Dan
HI all. Check out , “FIRST FEAR. THEN ANGER. BY: Theodore Butler. At, SILVER SEEK.COM More ammo for “GATA” Bless you all.
Al:
I am seeing a lot of articles like this. I spent a lot of time fishing in Lake County, Michigan 30 years ago. It had so much vitality and tourism was beaming.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/112463/american-ghost-towns-21st-century-247wallst
I guess this is one area where we are going to have an ongoing disagreement. I am very fearful of real estate. The one area I do like is Canadian REITs that focus on apartments.
And in Seattle, apartments are hot!
How about Jeff Phillips talking about the state of rare earths after the big run up last Fall?
Sincerely,
Jed
Hi Jed,
Not sure that we disagree on the subject of real estate.
My reason for purchasing a new home was that the new place is much more comfortable and in a bit of a better location. Will it turn out to be a great investment, who the hell knows!
Best,
Al
Al:
No argument with your home. I think it was a great purchase. And a smart purchase.
I am shocked by the national numbers — the number of people under water who have to pay at closing to get out, home foreclosure rates in certain cities. It is just a very vulnerable situation. And it is scary. Where do these people go? What do they do?
Sincerely,
Jed
Jed, I don’t know man. Trust me, I feel really sorry for each and everyone of them.
Your reply points, in my mind to why the precious metals markets went up today. People realize that we (and by “we” I mean the entire world) are still in a very precarious situation economically.
Best,
Al
I can’t believe there are analysts on here who thought that silver would correct down briefly and pop back up. Silver ALWAYS crashes. It will take time for it to consolidate, but hopefully not as long as last time (~18-20 months). Investors need to believe that a $50 break is not only possible, but sustainable. Just look at charts from the previous crashes — learn from history! — read Adam Hamilton: http://www.zealllc.com/2007/silvlag.htm