My thinking is that zero on the new highs means a cross sector venture exchange lack of breadth extreme. Those are probably the only results you don’t have to dig deeper into the sectors for because it’ll be no sectors with any new highs. So maybe the venture exchange new highs as a sentiment gauge is best reserved for identifying total sentiment collapses, but not much else because of sector noise.

Thanks for this discussion about sentiment DL and Matthew…It is something I need to work up more…glta
some ideas on the daily GDX…price closed back with in the TAS profile over 37.95 and may bounce briefly…if that support fails to hold then fibs below and the TD9 breakout support will be area looking to go long…in the area of 34 ish to 33ish looks favorable now as long as this remains a controlled decent….

https://tos.mx/mDi45fe

The odds just improved a lot for your 34-33ish entry level but maybe it matters that the 40 day MA held to the penny today? I don’t know but a convincing reversal is needed immediately. A gap below 37 tomorrow might do the trick…..
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p50631423240&a=1148557377

right…it is interesting that the 40 ema you look to for clues Matthew also happened to correspond like exact to my TAS profile bottom control line(which moves all over with the algos of price and volume)…Always is amazing…..I missed this whole leg up from my 2/11 buy signal…i could not pull the trigger after three rapid flurries up only to roll over in failure…I think this set up is totally different for the best….In my world this is only leg (a) down in a TD9 count of 2 out of 9….so we have a lot of time between now and the trigger date…Eventually the sector is buy and hold for the mania…tough tough tough stuff no doubt….on a weekly i must wait until the mid may time frame due to recent time harmonics…all just speculation…the weekly below shows a perfect 200% fibs expansion…..and the daily was with RSI divergences…so it was touchy stiff up there….https://tos.mx/mqtk94N

Thanks for the details and chart. Do you ever look at the cycle that takes roughly 18-19 months?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=11&mn=11&dy=0&id=p49604214383&a=1148591596&r=1650593427511&cmd=print

How about the 3.57 year cycle?
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=17&mn=0&dy=0&id=t7035410506c&a=1148593133&r=1650594639381&cmd=print

now that is unique…i never saw an 18 mo cycle until you just pointed it out….it is there!…what is interesting as you know is that there has been failure about mid-cycle….no bullish right translations…will this cycle be the same…humm….i will be saving that chart…..my thinkorswim platform is so vague i am not sure how to create and save one off charts conveniently…i may be adding another platform even if just a free version for study charts…thanks Matthew…very great investigations you are doing….i am not a yper or tecchh guy..lmao

If silver breaks above $26 before late July it will be an absolute miracle.
Personally, I don’t see any catalyst whatsoever to propel such a move between now and then. Additionally, the weakness in the small cap silver stocks to me suggests range bound trade until much later this year–certainly they won’t be breaking above last November’s highs, although an important pivot low may come well before the winter months (June-July for example).

I believe we are going to have to see Fed capitulation or at least enough pain in the stock market for the market to anticipate Fed capitulation for silver to have any hope whatsoever.

My comment that silver is on the cusp of a huge breakout must be taken in the context of the of the quarterly chart of the giant 40 year fork that I posted with it. In other words, “on the cusp” in this case doesn’t mean tomorrow, next week or even next month. But you are right to assume that I do think it will happen by the end of June/this quarter.
I’m not concerned with identifying catalysts because they are already in place in a huge way and not reflected in the price of silver or even gold.
SILJ did rise 44% since the end of January but it’s still true that the silver juniors didn’t perform as they typically do when the sector is bullish; but, as I’ve pointed out several times, that’s easily due to the fact that silver hadn’t, and still hasn’t, managed the necessary breakouts to “confirm” gold’s action. In addition, I have no doubts about the negative effects of the ongoing stock market selloff taking a toll on silver stock performance. In fact, they did quite well considering that angle.
In just one week, SILJ has retraced 50% of its entire move since late January. Such quick and scary corrections are more typical of bull markets than bear markets since they destroy sentiment and thereby shakeout more players. Gradual declines don’t spook the herd. Still, I think we need a convincing/obvious reversal next week to avoid many more weeks of decline.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p56193312082&a=1149156069