Doc Jones – His Background And Investing Journey, A Site Visit To NG Energy, And Macro Insights On The Energy Sector
Doc Jones, Private Investor, joins us to discuss his background and investing journey, the larger following he has garnered, a recent site visit to NG Energy (TSX.V: GASX), and his macro thoughts on the oil and natural gas markets and related extractive companies. It’s a wide-ranging discussion covering a number of cogent thoughts for resource investors to consider around having the right mindset and doing one’s own due diligence.
Thanks Shad. That was a great interview of Doc Jones, his background and thoughts about oil. I own several of the companies he has researched and believe his “deep-dive” is very constructive to the investment process. Your methods are equally valuable for the same reasons … thorough and factually accurate. Thanks to both of you for making things a lot better for investors.
Much appreciated Lakedweller2. That is nice feedback, and will return that kind sentiment right back to you sir. I really enjoy that you are candid about the daily moves in your portfolio, which companies have your attention, and which positions you are adding to or lightening up on. Thanks for all the solid contributions amigo. Ever Upward!
Speaking of which, one caught my attention today but I stopped looking when I realized I had to call to buy it and pay a bigger fee. Looks like Mining Book Guy was looking into it. I will put this up and quickly look up the name.
Great Quest Fertilizer. It had a good move today. I got as far as looking at Sedi and saw a lot of Green. Food and fertilizer going to be an issue.
I second those remarks Lake. I own only stocks recommended by Ex and DocJ.
They make true the old adage ‘the first rule of investing is find smart people, do what they do, and then you don’t need any other rules’.
Thanks blazesb. I just now saw that comment and appreciate the kind words. May your trading be prosperous!
U.S. Sanctions Can’t Keep China From Buying Russian Oil
By Simon Watkins – Mar 07, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/US-Sanctions-Cant-Keep-China-From-Buying-Russian-Oil.html
Russia Threatens To Cut Off Flow Of Nordstream 1 Pipeline
By Julianne Geiger – Mar 07, 2022
Gas Prices In Europe Skyrocket Again As Supply Risks Grow
By ZeroHedge – Mar 07, 2022
European natural gas futures soared Monday after reports the Biden administration was considering curbs on Russian crude imports sent shock waves across commodity markets.
Brent surged to $137/bbl and quickly pared gains to trade near $125/bbl around 0630 ET. The focus is European natgas futures, Dutch gas, which jumped as high as 64% to 335 euros a megawatt-hour — the equivalent of around $600 a barrel of oil.
Chaotic energy markets came after the US Secretary of State Antony Blinken told NBC this past weekend that the Biden administration is in “very active discussions” with European leaders to restrict Russian oil imports.
$110 Oil Prompts Private Shale Firms To Open The Taps
By Irina Slav – Mar 06, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/110-Oil-Prompts-Private-Shale-Firms-To-Open-The-Taps.html
This article may have seemed like a bit of a stretch 2 years ago, when so many “experts” were telling us the fair price for Oil was about $50-$60… and then remember that $70-$80 was a blow off top level?
I’m not sure if $150 is “inevitable” but heck, we just saw $130 barrel an oil last night in overseas trading, so it wouldn’t surprise me at this point when commodities prices are running higher and higher almost every day.
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Is $150 Oil Inevitable?
By Tsvetana Paraskova – Mar 07, 2022
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Is-150-Oil-Inevitable.html
Currently Crude Oil futures are trading at $121…
https://www.investing.com/commodities/crude-oil
What will the effects of these higher energy prices be on everyday global citizens, and the businesses that depend on hydrocarbons for so many different areas. Cost inputs for individuals and business have gone up in a substantial way lately, but high energy prices are like a tax on so many areas of daily life.
Speaking of Russia, raw materials, and the effects of other countries trying to isolate them on the global stage, it looks like they are hedging with more Gold.
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The Russian Central Bank Is Looking To Move Back Into Gold
Rajan Dhall Monday March 07, 2022
“The Russian central bank has said it will resume buying gold from the domestic market, as it takes measures to help ensure financial stability amid western sanctions against the country over the war in Ukraine. This is largely a fire-fighting exercise as the ruble collapses and the Russian stocks tumble.”
Gold has been bouncing around $2000 most of the day, periodically dipping above and below that round number, and currently trading at $1992 in afterhours trading, and making a high earlier today of $2004. If the Russian central banks are stacking more gold, it’s unlikely they are the only ones, and traders that were short gold in 2022 have been served a valuable experience in how quickly the yellow metal can move when people wake up and remember it isn’t just a “pet rock.” Haha!
Gold Prices Rally To Best Finish In 17 Months After Briefly Crossing $2,000
Mar. 07, 2022 – Carl Surran – Seeking Alpha
“Gold futures closed Monday to finish at their highest price since mid-August 2020, lifted by safe-haven trade in reaction to the myriad of uncertainties caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, with April Comex gold (XAUUSD:CUR) settling +1.5% at $1,995.90/oz, the highest finish for a most-active contract since August 2020, after trading as high as $2,007.50.”
Like………. was anyone paying attention the last 18 months…around here… lol……
Seeking Alpha…….. a story book of knowledge…… 🙂
Just joking………….. Have a Great Day…….. appreciate your work as always…..
Oh,…. got to go pet the rock……………lol
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gold-soars-2063-just-one-cent-away-new-all-time-high
Gold Soars To $2,063, Just One Cent Away From New All Time High
Correction for seeking alf…. 🙂
Hi OOTB, Yeah I think that Seeking Alpha update from yesterday was just stating that those levels hadn’t been seen in gold since August of 2020. The all-time high was actually $2089, so we aren’t there quite yet with gold in the $2060’s but close. Cheers!
Now Gold is in the $2070’s so getting even closer at $2072. Just $17 away from a new all-time high here in March, after waiting 18 months. I’d say that “handle” from the Cup & Handle definitely resolved and medium to longer term, that C&H measured move is going to send gold up around $3,000. Then as Jordan pointed out, the 30% extra extra move could send it to $4,000 in just 2-3 years. It will be fascinating to watch all this unfold, although, those higher gold prices will mean other areas of finance will get a bit more ugly.
Ex…….. thanks for the reply……… I am on Ruskie watch……. 🙂
Where is Frank from Moscow when you need him? Ha! 😉
dang…….. that is a good one…….. he, he, ha, ha…….. love it… 🙂
The 50 Minerals Critical to U.S. Security
By Bruno Venditti – The Visual Capitalist – March 1, 2022
https://elements.visualcapitalist.com/the-50-minerals-critical-to-u-s-security/
Interesting close for Brixton versus SILJ…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBB.V%3ASILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=10&dy=0&id=p36626099841&a=879062776
As I pointed out yesterday, I sold some on Friday so the move was inevitable…..still hold some but hold more Kootenay which has come back to life as well
Kootenay is tangling with its 200 day MA again for the first time since November.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=KTN.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p17015520563&a=1106639726
Is copper bullishly consolidating versus gold or is it building a significant top? My guess is the latter.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER%3A%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p14756085110&a=1116697516
It’s worth noting that it would have to be trading around $13 right now to match its 2006 high and around $30 to match its January 1971 price.
It’s probably safe to say that it has much more downside risk versus gold than versus dollars.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p83825972424&a=485477620
Unless copper soon follows nickel’s lead, it looks like it can dip back below $4. It doesn’t look strong enough so far.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER&p=W&yr=6&mn=3&dy=0&id=p60368506999&a=605040134
If I owned COPX right now, I’d sell all of it and buy GDX or other gold/silver mining plays.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COPX%3AGDX&p=W&yr=4&mn=2&dy=0&id=p98190977613
I’d also trade bets on copper for bets on silver.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=0&id=p82774684442&a=1058324121
Of course my opinions are not advice.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COPPER%3A%24SILVER&p=W&yr=7&mn=7&dy=0&id=t7059133834c&a=1058324121&r=1646737069937&cmd=print
Always appreciate your charts and input Matthew….even when I don’t like to hear it.lol…….I’m in exploration plays so price of copper isn’t the main driver anyways but after your uranium call last November I do note all your calls on commodities along with the specific stocks you follow.
Wolfster, longer term, I still expect copper to do very well. It just needs a break, especially versus gold.
Well my much anticipated drill results for kodiak are finally out…..at least 5 more…still another 7 to come. Rather than make any interpretations myself I’ll see what the market has to say…..tho I do think they are proving out the thesis. (Thesis is my new catchphrase from reading Doc Jones posts…btw bought his gasx pick last week)
Here I was thinking he was a former medical doctor who picked this up in retirement 😂
Haha! Initially me too. However, it’s based on the Indiana Jones “Doctor Jones” thing due to his younger appearance and people told him he had that vibe. That is why he posts that sketch of him looking like Indiana Jones on ceo.ca and on his website, which we also post on his banner here.
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>>You Call Him Dr. Jones
By Peter Hobson
Reuters
Tuesday, March 8, 2022
LONDON — The London Bullion Market Association said Monday it had suspended its accreditation of six Russian precious metals refiners, meaning they will no longer be able to sell gold and silver in the London market, the world’s largest.
The LBMA did not give a reason for the suspension but the association last week told Reuters it had asked the refiners if they have commercial links with sanctioned Russian entities. …
Silver needs to blast past $32……. then we have a new game…. 🙂
Agreed OOTB. Once Silver gets up through that $30 resistance then it is game on… by the time it gets to $32 it will be on the move… Right now in the $27 range, but that’s a fair bit better than the pullback to $18.50 – $19 that many were convinced Silver was pulling back down to. It’s starting to play catchup here and gaining traction.
🙂
No one here is trading bullion though, and the silver miners acted like silver did in fact test $17-18.
And they are still acting poorly relative to the metal. Most have not even exceeded their November ’21 highs.
Some day they will shine against the metal, but I suspect that day is much further out than most people here are dreaming. My bullish/optimistic guess would be 2023.
Is it lost on you that the silver miners have performed fantastically relative to the stock market? AMZN, FB, TSLA were down 5 to 7 percent the other day while SPY was down 3% yet the silver miners were all up very nicely. Between the stock market behaving as poorly as it has consistently lately and silver being technically way behind gold, there’s been nothing negative about the silver miners at all.
I understand what you are saying. I am bullish longer term, and by no means am I suggesting people invest in tech stocks for anything other than a trade.
You never know, but I personally think the silver miners will be stuck in this lower range established over the last 6 or so months until late 2022. The lows are probably in, but the key for me will be breaking above their declining 600 week MAs finally. I think they need just a bit more time in the oven, but I could very well be wrong. I think they are worth buying, but people should temper their short term expectations just a bit IMO.
You could be right though and now is the time the silver miners finally scream higher–and by that I mean a multiple of their 2016 highs.
Hello………. I think the awaking has started ………. 🙂 For the sheeple of course….. lol
https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-03-07/Hedge-funds-are-all-in-on-gold-CFTC.html
Hedge funds continue to increase their bullish bets in gold as Russia’s war with Ukraine drives commodity prices significantly higher, according to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Added to Millennial Precious, Big Ridge, Honey Badger, Petrus Resources, Group Ten.
For those following Big Ridge, Michael Gentile did an add on 3/7. He was already in. Sedi info.
Had to edit: I put Millennial and had to change to Big Ridge. I have Millennial on the brain. Michael Gentile has been in Big Ridge as well as Doc Jones.
SPQ : https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
Possible Tops All Around!
Ides of March?
ides of march or positive super bowl indicator. Short term bottom coming in conventional markets, next few days will tell the tale.
For those that may be interested, another paper hit in progress on the metals. Gold dropped about in half already.
An absolutely epic fade. Classic. You just knew it was too good to be true.
I suspect the metals and miners will be correcting for the next few weeks. I don’t expect another upward thrust until the last week of the month.
It’s quite possible we won’t be breaking today’s high until later this year, at least for the silver miners, which are still below their November ’21 highs.
In classic metals fashion, expect some sort of waterfall decline later in the year that will likely shakeout anyone buying now. No way the banksters are going to make it this easy for bugs.
Perhaps we get an inverse head and shoulders on the GDX weekly chart. The right shoulder should be coming up, which should burn a number of months and take us into late 2022 early 2023 for a breakout.
I suspect the commodity complex is going to cool off for a year or more also.
Today was a good spot to sell gold miners. No rocket move yet.
exactly what I did Green. Only had a partial position however still did well. Out of all things called gold. Performance of the many most touted like ipt, pgm etc abysmal. It was only the cream that rose and even those like aem, nem abx not in pace with gold, and silver the most touted not even close on relative basis.
Not a bear just other things more interesting
You guys are frickin hilarious. All we need now is for Doc/Richard to join in to remind us about the Ides of March again and triple down on his call that GDX could be at 25 by the end of March. He also repeatedly said that gold wouldn’t challenge its August 2020 high until 2023.
That “epic fade” was classic alright. Huge gaps up always bring selling and that’s a good thing, especially when the sector is already daily overbought. To be clear, there was/is precisely nothing bearish about it with respect to the recent breakouts and new uptrend.
Yes, IPT has gone up an “abysmal” 62% in 6 weeks while GDX went up almost 40%. Maybe now it will go to .20 like Doc/Richard said.
I said a couple weeks ago to be ready for wild volatility but it’s a good thing that most people never will be. The health of the move requires most people to remain doubtful.
Fully agree again, wrong is wrong, bears have to admit it or go broke, silver over $30 next, faint corrections on the way up, most are asleep to the fact that pgms can breakout, they do, happy trading…
That’s it, they’re still hoping the market/mother nature will conform to their incorrect vision of how things “should” unfold.
Where is the drag on Silver and Gold today, why isn’t it down $1/$30?
My reasoning? Demand, demand, demand… will it be Boomers, GenXers, Millenials(sp), etc? One of these generations is going to get interested and wipe out the shelves of all the retailers and it will finally hit mainstream, then shortly after dies, haha. All in my humble opinion only, I am glad to take criticism.
Dan, I agree with both comments. Demand, demand, demand is obviously way up and SCZ has more than double off its mid December low (congrats!) which makes its pullback today even more normal.
I drew a fork on the 6 month chart and SCZ looks like a breakout over the middle tine to pop over 50 cents, all my humble opinion.
Yep, Santacruz Silver has been an upside ripper for sure. Loving it!
I did trim back about 8% of my position in SCZ into today’s strength, but it was getting a bit too overweight in my portfolio, and is still one of my heavier weighted silver positions, right behind IPT.
You have been pumping these dregs for months and months for more than a year, your example of ipt in particular. Yes your right, this thing is 16 pennies or so off its low at .62 as I write. It also has to rise an additional 100% to come close to its 1.27 high. It has yet to reach its nov pop up high at .70. Meanwhile gold hovers around all time highs. Silver a struggle in spite of proclamations for more than the past year. The only stuff broaching past highs is the cream as expected abx fnv nem and without any outpace of the underlining metal. This is where we’ve had the worst european conflict in generations, oil fiasco etc etc.. In spite of the end of world, the spx is down roughly 15% from all time highs, and will likely pop before it’s next downleg.
What delsional BS you continuously spout.
You’re simply incompetent and should NOT manage your own money. You’re incapable of learning what you so badly need to because you take no responsibility for your confusion and shitty performance.
Since when has it EVER made sense to think that these juniors would suddenly stop showing the volatility that they always have? And since when has it been logical or sane to expect massive upside moves without the risk of massive downside moves? You have absolutely no idea what you’re doing and would rather whine constantly than attempt to improve yourself. It’s pathetic and embarrassing.
If you have in fact been buying the dregs like ipt the way you posted more than a year ago then you’re in deep doo doo and sucking air as the market past you by.
Advising during that same period to sit back and watch the grass grow until the year end where I took a position has paid off, albeit partial, is perfectly ok. Nothing confusing or incompetent about that. There is nothing to learn from your babble.
There’s certainly nothing for you to learn from anyone. That’s been clear for years.
As for IPT, I don’t know what to tell you if you can’t sell strength and buy weakness. Things have a way of working out when you buy major weakness but you and Doc/Richard wouldn’t know that. Both of you were perfect contrary indicators at every single low.
Impact is still below its high from 6 years ago. Despite silver, gold and even lowly GDX making significantly higher highs.
I’m sure it will take off at some point. But it has been an absolutely terrible investment on a relative and absolute basis compared to just about anything on earth during that time frame.
IMO, it can’t be considered to be in an actual bull market until it breaks clear of that 2016 peak. When it does, I am sure it will be explosive, but it obviously hasn’t done that yet and it really is anyone’s guess as to when that will happen. Personally, if I had to take a guess, I would say it will be range-bound until later in the year and probably won’t take out the 2016 high until 2023. I think it has a bit more base building to do. Of course I could be wrong.
Such juniors are for speculation, not investment and the same goes for the senior miners as far as I’m concerned. You don’t buy and hold these things. You buy near significant lows and sell near significant highs. They act like call options but (most) don’t expire. The upside potential is huge and so is the ensuing downside. Most who mess with this space shouldn’t.
Gold and the gold miners always lead silver and they are way ahead this time. Gold bottomed ahead of silver at the start of the bull market 20 years ago and it did so again but the leadership this time was much more dramatic. The two metals bottomed 4 years apart so silver and the silver miners are just now getting started but are also more appealing in my opinion.
Traders had/have lots of technical reasons for selling today and all were/are based on short term considerations AND are big-picture BULLISH. For example, GDX’s daily RSI went to a multi year high taking out even its August 2020 reading (!) while it also pushed past its May high and top (daily) pivot resistance. All three are “good”/bullish developments but all three also suggest short term caution is in order. Like everything, markets are made of cycles within cycles within cycles, etc., etc. Get used to it!
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p84818865581
Yes Matthew and that’s why I cashed in my chips earlier today, to come back another day. Others who may have done this are not bears as you proclaim. What you state is painfully obvious babble. Not a miraculous technical or scientific discovery requring evidence.
You were extra bearish or at least extra bitchy at every low when you should have been a happy buyer. End of story. You’re damn ridiculous.
Anybody on this page take advantage of GPL around .17-.18 cents in the last couple weeks. It’s been climbing steadily since then and today on big volume, up 35%. Just wondering.
IPT hasn’t held some of it’s better prices but I’m encouraged by the volume. Stealth is the word!
Hi Silverdollar – Yes, the rally in the silver miners over the last few months has been quite stealth, and many have been gradually trekking higher for a while now. That’s fine with me if it stays more stealth, because when everyone is hooting and hollering about higher mining stocks and how great they are doing, then I’ll need to start off-loading some positions to them. 🙂
For now, let the stealth bull move keep on charging… Cheers!
Wow, very impressive move on a whopping ten times the average volume. Smart money knows that higher silver prices are coming.
A permanent feature of these miners is that the riskier ones always outperform the safer ones when things turn favorable. Some have referred to this fact as a perversity but its not. It makes perfect sense that the riskier plays are helped more by increases in the price of the metal they mine.
GPL fell 86% over the last year while IPT fell 66% so it makes sense that the turn in silver might have a bigger effect on GPL. I no longer follow it but it seems it really needed some relief. With a current ratio of 1 while IPT’s current ratio is 13, silver’s action is obviously much more meaningful to GPL’s financial condition at this time.
It has now filled that huge November gap that was caused by the announcement of a $20M bought deal financing.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GPL&p=D&yr=1&mn=2&dy=0&id=p25741655436
Agreed Matthew. When the sector turns higher and metals prices start to move, it is the riskier or higher cost producers that start to really outperform, as their margin expansion is the largest on a percentage basis, which is why higher cost producers like GPL, IPT, SCZ, GSVR, and EXK have really started to accelerate since the last week of January.
Does Kootenay @. .12 count? Now .17.
It was nice to get more background from Doc Jones in this interview today on his path through finance and investing. The quality of his research, and ability to pick about 30 stocks that had multibag returns over the last 4 years, is why he’s amassed such a large following on multiple forums and platforms. If his research was off or the companies he was highlight weren’t performing, then nobody would be following him…. It’s as simple as that. That doesn’t mean that all of them will be winners, just that his batting average on the free content he shares is much better than many paid newsletter writers, “consultants,” and marketing and promotion sites.
We’re grateful that Doc Jones likes the KE Report and takes time to share his insights with us here.