Weekend Show – Making Sense Of The Volatility This Week In Markets and Metals
This week was a wild ride for precious metals investors. On Wednesday the metals popped higher along with a strong moves in the stocks on high volumes. This had a lot of our market commentators turn bullish on the sector. Unfortunately prices faded by the end of the week. Gold still closed up for the week but only about $15 and both the metals and stocks failed to break major resistance. On this Weekend’s Show we focus on the set up in the metals markets as well as the broad averages that are remain choppy this year.
Please keep in touch with both Shad an I through email. We love to hear your thoughts on the markets and companies we feature throughout the week. Our emails are Fleck@kereport.com and Shad@kereport.com.
- Segment 1 and 2 – Jesse Felder, Founder and Editor of The Felder Report kicks off the show to discuss a major change that has happened when it comes to fed policy and the bond market. This ties into investor sentiment. We also discuss the volatility in the gold market. Click here to visit the Felder Report website.
- Segment 3 – Dana Lyons, Fund Manager is up next with a more broad look at markets and gold. We recap the overall percentage down for the major averages and discuss what is causing this weakness. This ties into the gold market where Dana shares the key levels for investors to watch. Click here to keep up to date on Dana’s trading strategies.
- Segment 4 – Dave Erfle, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky wraps up the show with a focus on the gold moves this week. Especially the close on Friday which has everyone wondering is this was just another head fake for precious metals investors. Click here to learn more about Dave’s investment letter, The Junior Miner Junky.
Exclusive Company Updates This Week
- Gold Bull Resources – Drill Program Starting At The Sandman Project Focused On High-Grade Discoveries
- Benchmark Metals – Drill Results From The AGB Resource Area Including 95.55 Meters Of 3.89g/t Gold And A 2022 Exploration Outlook
- GR Silver Mining – Recapping Initial Drill Results From The San Marcial Area and Exploration Plans For 2022
- Millennial Precious Metals Hits Long Mineralized Gold Intercept With High-Grade Intervals Below The Pit Shell at Mountain View Project
- Scottie Resources – Recapping the 2021 High-Grade Drill Results At The Blueberry Zone and Expansion Work Planned in 2022
- Superior Gold – Company Introduction To Production Expansion And Exploration Growth
- Video Update – Labrador Gold – Recapping High-Grade Drill Results And Doubling The Drill Program to 100,000m
- Video Update – Skeena Resources – New Discovery, Zone 23, And An Overview Of The Regional Exploration Program
- Eskay Mining – Strong Drill Results From The TV and Jeff Deposits
Thanks to all the KER guest contributors for another great week of daily editorials, company interviews with management, and another solid weekend show with Jesse, Dana, and Dave.
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Also thanks to all the listeners of the podcast, and those members of the KER crew that post and participate here on the blog, and all those sharing insights with our community. Ever Upward!
I changed from team EX/GLEN to team DOC last week
I think there are more signs that DOC is right (DOW -1.4%, GDX -2.1%, pandemic peak, Ukraine conflict). It doesn’t look like we get the typically January rally in PM miners that EX was predicting. Looks more that the general market is ready for a correction and will take the miners with it
Do we see the October lows in the PM stocks again?
That would be the time to start buying again. Next week and February will be interesting
Lithium stocks also had a heafty correction yesterday
If DOC is right and we get life time buying opportunities in February/March he will look like a genius with a 80% cash position -:)
Thomas, good comments and questions and we’ll see how things keep developing after next weeks FOMC meeting with the fedbabble and whatever guidance they give on wrapping up tapering the accomodative bond purchases and the start of the rate hikes.
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Yes, we often see a seasonal Q1 Run out of December tax loss selling pressure and a move higher into January/February. I’d submit that as recently as Tue, especially Wed, and still on Thu morning of this last wek we did, in fact, see both Silver and Gold and the miners rallying much higher than they were a month ago.
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Silver was out of the $22’s and into the high $24’s, Gold was out of the high $1780s and $1790s and up in the mid $1840’s. Also many of the miners were up double digits in those few days, and they were outperforming the metals 3:1.
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As was mentioned, Wednesday was one of the biggest across the board up days across most of the sector in a year. So we have already seen a rally in January from that standpoint, although there was selling pressure that came in Thu afternoon and yesterday on Friday was brutal.
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However, contrast that to those bears that were calling for a test of the $1675 level to break to the mid to low $1600’s or high $1500’s in Q1 and I’d say my outlook has been far more spot on.
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People that were buying a month ago in tax loss selling should already be up in many names, and we just saw a huge rally 2 days ago… which many considered a key breakout on the lessor charts. While it was an ugly end to a very constructive week, it is still possible we have more room to run over the next few weeks, so January and February are not over yet.
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If we do see a corrective move take root here though, we’ll be correcting from a slightly higher level than most were predicting a month or so ago, so I just don’t see the PMs breaking to new lows below $1675 in gold or $21.41 in Silver unless things really get ugly in a huge “sell everything” stock market crash as you outlined. We’ll see how it goes…
Were not the commodities that went down. Gold is still well above $1800 and lithium at an all time high. The miners and explorers went down, decoupled from the commodity prices. I think, if the general market will sell off, we see more of this
The commodities have been strong for the last few months with energy commodities like Oil and Nat Gas Uranium and Lithium leading the charge. However, the base metals have continued rallying. Copper is still up near all time highs in the mid $4s compared to it’s historical pricing in the $2s and $3s. Zinc has continued hovering near 2 decade highs in the $1.60’s. Nickel has been surging for over a year near very lofty levels. Platinum is back over $1000, and Palladium is back over $2000. Even many of the soft commodities have been on a tear. Mid week there was green across the whole board in the commodities sector.
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Historically, and compared to the general equities markets, commodities are still greatly undervalued. Now after such a great run, could some of them cool off for a while… sure, especially if the dollar makes one more run higher. That would be a good time to look at beefing up base metals miners and oil/nat gas plays, but if the US dollar were to pull back and dive down lower, while there is continued weakness in the general equities, then it could blast commodities even higher.
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My thesis is that it is best to be partially positioned in various extractive companies across a range of commodities and have at least a fishing pole in the main commodity ponds in case we see that, as it is hard to know how markets will react to the upcoming rate hike cycle or which way the inflationary pressures will trend in 2022. For now, I’ve been building back up my Uranium positions after pulling profits last Autumn, and am pretty much back to 75% positioned in where I ultimately want to be. I’ve got some Copper, Platinum/Palladium, Nickel, Zinc, Rare Earths exposure, and Cannabis if you count that as a soft commodity, but these positions are smaller than where they were last year. The only position I’m out of completely at this point is Lithium.
Serbia ended Rio Tinto’s lithium project there, likely spurred by Asstralia’s treatment of favorite son Djokovic.
Silver is Leading Gold Higher into Fed Week
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David Erfle – Friday January 21st, 2022
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“Recently, this expected strong move has been leaning towards the upside. Gold’s sell-offs have been muted since the Federal Reserve began to tighten monetary policy by tapering its $120 billion per month QE program in November of 2021, while making higher highs and higher lows.”
“The Fed is now set to end the tapering of its bond purchases by March, clearing the way for rate increases. And once these hawkish actions by the world’s largest central bank were met with a “sell the rumor, buy the news” reaction in the gold space after its mid-December FOMC policy meeting, moves below $1,800 have soon run out of steam with gold bouncing back above this important level.”
“The gold price has maintained a bullish bias since January 11th, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated before congress that “The economy no longer needs or wants the very highly accommodative policies we’ve had in place…”
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https://mailchi.mp/c9c0e7dbd98d/david-erfle-weekly-gold-miner-sector-op-ed-1600486
Gold Set for Second Weekly Gain With Inflation, Dollar in Focus
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Yvonne Yue Li – Bloomberg – Fri, January 21, 2022
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“Gold headed for a second consecutive weekly gain, even as an advance in inflation-adjusted bond yields diminishes the appeal of the non-interest bearing asset.”
“Bullion is fluctuating near a key resistance level of about $1,835 an ounce, after a decline in nominal bond yields from a two-year high helped gold advance earlier in the week. On Friday, the metal was weighed down for a second day by a drop in market-based measures of inflation that raises the real return of Treasuries as it generates no interest.”
“Still, the precious metal is managing to hold steady even as central banks turn more hawkish. Volatility in the stock market has helped spur demand for the haven, with the S&P 500 Index on course for its worst week in almost 15 months. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia over Ukraine may also be providing support.”
“With declines in equities, commodity traders using trend-following strategies “may inadvertently be adding to haven-like flows,” TD Securities strategists led by Bart Melek said in a note.
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-set-second-weekly-advance-010925971.html
Dr. Copper: The Arbiter Of Inflation Truth
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Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (01/19/2022)
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https://thefelderreport.com/2022/01/19/dr-copper-will-be-the-feds-arbiter-of-inflation-truth/
Ex, here is some more thought on the silver rally which I believe is going nowhere fast. We’ve had 2 months of closing higher prices for silver (month hasn’t closed out yet but silver should not close lower for January then the close for December). Ex, then move over to the monthly charts for EXK and PAAS which are 2 of the most premiere silver companies (would you agree?)—-both companies in the face of rising monthly silver prices have had 2 monthly LOWER closing prices in a row. This speaks volumes. If the conventional markets continue to move lower over the next number of weeks (which I believe will happen), for the first time in a long time I’ll be moving more dollars of my allocated PM dollars into conventional stocks that are good companies with technicals that are screaming purchase. A case in point is netflix which has just been taken to the cleaners; look at the beautiful “HUGE” gap down on the daily chart; it’s screaming “BUY”—-what a future gift. Am I going to purchase netflix now? NO. We may get a short term rally but won’t fill the gap anytime soon. With pressure on the conventional markets to continue in all probability, netflix will probably trend even lower over time. When selling is exhausted and it bottoms will be the time to purchase—there are other companies like this and my daughter-in-law is an executive in a bio-tech stock with a similar gap and cleansing move down. That stock was 75 last year and now sits at 10—I’ll take a major position in that company eventually since I know it well and it has even a bigger gap down then netflix. What I’m saying is that there will be prices in the future like we haven’t seen in years. The FANG stocks are now telling you that there is pain coming in the next few weeks and months.
I have to agree with Doc……….. on …………”silver going nowhere fast”,….. as long as JMP and the CFTC and SEC are in bed…… seems to me a slow process……
I also, agree……….. on the FANG stocks……… pain in the rear view mirror( I am trying to clean up my act.. 🙂
Yes – double ditto. Both good points gentlemen.
Yes Doc, I agree with you about the potential weakness in the general stock market’s. As long as it’s not too severe of a corrective move lower (so nothing that would cause an all out crash) then that market concern could actually be the fuel that drives more generalists into silver and gold and the precious metal stocks.
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We’ve had so many guests come on the show and proclaim we need to see weakness in the stock market to drive any interest in the precious metals. Well as you’re just outlined, now we are seeing that weakness in the general stock markets, and we did just see some correlating converse strength in the precious metals this week.
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It will be very interesting to see how things keep developing after the FOMC meeting next week in the general markets and the precious metals markets.
It is also interesting to note that the cryptocurrencies and the previously frothy biotech and meme stocks have absolutely been creamed over the last couple of weeks to months and there could be some money starting to rotate into gold and silver mining stocks out of those other “hot money” sectors.
Ex, I’ve been saying it consistently back in December that the time to be purchasing PM stocks will be the first half of 2022. What we need to see is one more good down move in the PM sector and these stocks will be positioning themselves for some nice returns in the future—-there in all likelihood will not be a sudden turn up but a settling of a lot of PM stocks down around a beautiful double bottoming of the March 2020 lows.
Ex, I might add that one of the PM stocks currently that has a beautiful monthly technical chart is MUX for the long term investor.
Are we looking for the October 2021 or for the March 2020 lows?
Some of the PM stocks went already in October to their March 2020 low, most stayed well above. The March 2020 lows are still a long way for most of the PM stocks.
How about other commodities. Don’t think that lithium plays will see March 2020 lows
Good comments Doc and thanks for sharing your outlook. Personally I’d rather not see the miners go all the way back down and test their March 2020 lows for a double-bottom, but sure it is always a possibility. Personally, I’m more in the camp that the probability is that we won’t go that low in many stocks, and I believe the worst of the corrective move is already behind us (barring an all out panic sell crash in the general stock market on some geopolitical craziness or something like that).
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I’m open and prepared for being wrong about it, but I think the lows we just saw in the miners in late September and December (depending on the stocks as different ones bottomed in both areas), will hold, without having to go all the way down to the March 2020 lows, and I believe it is less likely that Gold breaks down below $1675 or Silver below $21.41 at this point.
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I completely respect you outlook using the longer duration charts Doc and appreciate your perspective as it challenges my own personal thesis and there is great value in that. Also I agree that if there is one more final wash out in the PMs, then I completely agree it would be one last fantastic buying opportunity before a much longer and sustained move higher. At that point, having gratuitous amounts of cash, like you do currently, would be a huge advantage (as would skipping the downside pain in that corrective move).
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However, if we see a few more moves like we did this last Wednesday with so many PM stocks popping up double-digits, then the advantage would go to those already having positions in place, and capturing those jolts higher would be more well-served than being mostly in cash and chasing.
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There are risks and rewards to both positions depending on how things unfold. I’m likely far to exposed to any downside risk with not enough cash, and if things do keep ratcheting higher, then being too exposed to cash on the sidelines would miss a lucrative rally. I guess it is one of those “damned if you do, or damned if you don’t do” kind of situation, and the middle path of healthy mix of cash and also having positions built at lower levels at the end of last year is the best way to play it.
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Cheers and good thoughts as always sir.
As for you starting to nibble at MUX, I had written you back on Craig’s blog, but just in case… welcome back. 🙂
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With MUX I’m on my 4th round of trading with this company over the last 5 years, but have kept a core position un place for the latter part of 2021, that I’ve been swing-trading around with partial positions. It is one that has been punished longer than most would have expected, even in light of the challenges over the last 2 years. I have beefed it up though in the last few months back on 10/11 @ $1.08, and I had added 2 more tranches to my McEwen a few weeks back — on 12/10 @ $0.89 and on 12/15 @ $0.81. It closed at $0.95 on Friday, and maybe it falls back down into the $0.80s again, but I could see it being an easy double or triple from here in 2 years.
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Maybe we should invite Rob on the show to get us all an update on all their projects and operations. I betting on them as a turnaround story, just like Americas Gold & Silver (USAS) and Superior Gold (SGI).
Speaking of turnaround stories and Superior Gold (SGI), we did finally get them on the show this last week, which I was pretty excited about. I’ve been bulking up in them for their potential rerating in essentially planning to double production in 2 years, through bringing online a few more satellite open pits to augment their underground mining, through potential M&A of other surrounding projects or toll-milling to fill up capacity at their 2nd and available mill, and through an aggressive exploration program.
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Here was the interview for anyone interested that missed it:
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(SGI) (SUPGF) Superior Gold – Company Introduction To Production Expansion And Exploration Growth
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http://www.kereport.com/2022/01/19/superior-gold-company-introduction-to-production-expansion-and-exploration-growth/
Ex, I don’t believe every PM stock will double bottom—an example would be NEM—things would really have to get bad for that to happen. A number of stocks have already double bottomed—just one example is BCM which I’m preparing to take a position in at my lowest cost basis ever.
Thanks for providing that further feedback Doc.
Yeah, there are many stocks that I don’t want to see get anywhere near their March 2020 lows.
Good trading to you sir.
The FOMC meeting may define this year. Dollar Week:
Consolidation Into Rates Week : Break Likely : Which Way?
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2022/01/dollar-week_18.html
BDC, I bet the FOMC plays their usual verbal games this coming week to give hope to both camps. However, if the conventional markets and their sectors take out certain important support areas I don’t think the FED will be able to control the move down no matter what they say or do. It then becomes a psychological take over.
Doc, the sea change would be if it becomes apparent that Powell has been directed to raise rates, effectively, no matter what; otherwise, things will most likely progress as you foresee. The Wednesday meeting should resolve whether this twist is possible.
Jesse’s thoughts on the Fed not being able to complete its tapering, let alone begin raising rates says it all IMO. It’s only a matter of time before a majority see the truth. We should be well on our way by the end of this qtr.
Doc.: Like your comments on MUX. I’m holding a substantial position in MUX not only for the PM value but for the copper prospects in the future.
Jesse is always one of my favorite guests to have on the KE Report, and I generally resonate with his macro outlook, and this segment from him on the weekend show was no exception. His outlook is very similar to the way I’m viewing things, from the shake out in frothy sectors he saw coming like the bloated growth, cryptos, biotech, and meme stock trades, to the outlook on bonds, to his outlook on the PMs garnering more of bid this year in light of these trends. He’s a very sharp guy in my opinion and takes a balanced approach to his analysis and outlook.
Here’s his latest one from today:
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‘Hold Off On The Peak Inflation Party’
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Jesse Felder – The Felder Report – (01/22/2022)
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https://mailchi.mp/felder/peak-inflation-party
Silver, watch MUX’s price move —I’ll be purchasing more everytime pricing impinges the lower BB on the monthly chart. My cost basis with this company is now the lowest I’ve ever had.
Re: Pot stocks….I see you have been adding Ex. I may be wrong but I think you too early….maybe see bottom in second half of the year.
Wolfster, could you give me some of the Pot stock symbols to look at the charts technically?
I only follow the big MSO’s and imcc……cura trul gtii cl
Forgot my fav for playing the warrants when they become cheap and good leverage…Planet 13 plth
Yeah, I did some swing trading with Planet 13 this year and made a little quick cheddar on it. I actually drove right by it’s main base of operations in Las Vegas when I flew in their on a vacation last spring. We talked with Sean Brodrick about Planet 13, as it is one of his favorites in the cannabis sector. It’s one I’m watching to get back in.
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I also did well trading Delta 9 and carved out a few minimal gains. However I got burnt bad with IM Cannabis corp you mentioned, and with Fiore Cannabis that Dan, calgary had mentioned. I had also traded some in the ETF (MJ) and got my hand slapped in that mid year.
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For now I’m just building the (POTX) position to get reacquainted with and get exposure to the space.
Yeah the imcc definitely soured me with regards to the pots…..still looks great on paper as the story slowly grows but the stock price says it all.
It wasn’t alone in cannabis companies getting sour over the last year. I still think it has an interesting angle on distribution in emerging countries. Stay tuned as we are going to bring on a few cannabis and psychedelic therapies companies over the next year just to cover a few in that soft commodities sector.
Wolfster – I’ve only been building and adding a position in the ETF (POTX) thus far for the cannabis stocks.
Maybe I’m a bit early, but I’m certainly not buying while it is pricey at the levels I was buying on Friday.
No doubt they are cheaper …believe trulieve is down 50% ….. things have gotten bogged down as far as federal legislation goes so it could still have some down side and definitely will be more time before things turn positive
I’d go beyond the pot stocks being just cheaper, they’ve been absolutely demolished since their highs a year ago. People love to whine and moan about the correction we’ve seen in the PM space, but it is nothing compared to the decimation in the Cannabis stocks in 2021, and they may have been the worst performing sector, which is what is getting my attention for a turn-around in 2022.
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The way I’m playing it, as mentioned above is via the Global X Cannabis ETF (POTX), which is now off 82.8% from it’s February 2021 high of $28.55 down to where it closed on Friday at $4.90. Again, I don’t think I’m accumulating it here while it is very “pricey” on a historical basis. 😉
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Here is the (POTX) Chart showing the massive fall from grace in the last year. Maybe I’m a bit early, but these are the kinds of setups I like to accumulate, as we know the sector is not going to zero.
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https://schrts.co/BSNbSrqC
This IMO is one of Rickard’s better articles: https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/rickards-bad-news-im-afraid
Stopped listening after the first dozen mic-thumps by Jesse Felder.
Can these people just handcuff themselves to the chair so we don’t have to listen to them karate-chopping their desks/mics every 5 seconds. So annoying.
If you stopped listening to the content of what someone as brilliant as Jesse was saying, strictly because he was moving around near his mic creating some “thumps,” then it’s your loss; and you”ve missed the forest for a few small trees.
DJ, Jesse’s actual speech is clear, direct, easy to follow and really quite beautiful. He’s confident in his words so he knows what he’s talking about. There are no annoying hmm’s, umm’s, repetitions, stutters and his grammar is near perfect. The few mic thumps are almost unnoticeable on my cheap, 15rmb ear buds.
Agreed 100% Terry. I went back to listen again, and don’t know what all the fuss is from DJ. Some people just like to make mountains out of mole hills.
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It is also interesting how some people only come on sporadically to make a comment, and then when they do, it isn’t to add value to the community, it is just to come on to complain and whine. It takes all kinds I guess…
Inflation came to everywhere when the central bankers and treasuries jointly debased the mediums of exchange.
On September 1, 2019, the M3 USD Money supply was $15,000,000,000,000 and as of November 1, 2021, the M3 USD Money supply is $21,436,700,000,000.
We have debauched the USD in terms of M3 by $6,436,700,000,000 or 43% in just 26 months and more debasement is irrevocably on the flight path and already spent.
Inflation is caused when the medium of exchange is keystroked into existence out of thin air, giving first spend privileges to cronies and burdening citizen tax slaves to debt prestidigitated supposedly backing the funny ‘money.’
The hocus pocus currency creation is inflation.
The malevolent monetary money manipulators made inflation when they expanded the medium of exchange far in excess of the economy’s productivity.
Measuring price increases is measuring only the symptom of the monetary disease. Stop monetary mayhem and price inflation ends.
Right on, Dennis. Hope all is well with you. It seems like ages since you last posted.
The stock market is starting to signal an incipient recession and with Biden’s “BBB” dead there is not going to be another stimulus to bail out his sorry rearend. Expect the markets to move down a little more going into the FED meeting and then a rebound when a hawkish tone doesn’t continue but a dovish tone. This may even keep the PM levitated at these levels. However, the conventional markets are doomed to move lower regardless especially with the FED tightening into an incipient recession. The FED will pray for a moderation in the inflation rate but this is a supply side constraint issue. There will probably be somewhat of a demand issue in discretionary spending since folk’s earnings are being eaten up by inflation and so inflation may moderate to a degree but not as much as they wish. Can anyone say “stagflation”?
Stagflation… there…said it…
I also brought up stagflation as a topic of conversation in the Jesse Felder interview up above, and also in the Craig Hemke interview on Friday.
AMZN has a weekly close well below its 100 week (2 year) MA/EMA for the first time in 6 years and has lower weekly and monthly RSI readings than at any time since 2008. It is going to go much lower but could bounce next week as it is currently at fork support, its steeply rising lower monthly Bollinger band, its 125 week (2.5 year) MA and just below pivot support. It also hasn’t been so daily oversold since February 2006. That’s right, 2006, not 2008. So, I could see it making a short term low on Monday and then bouncing strongly as the Fed delivers its usual nonsense to sheeple who will credit the Fed for the turnaround.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p59936088903&a=636788691
Matthew, that’s good information going into the FED meeting. I may just take my profits on my shorts and get back in after a rebound.
NFLX is in a similar situation. Priced in dollars or gold, it has never been so daily oversold in its 19.75 year history nor so weekly oversold since 2011. This situation in such large and widely followed/held companies could bring some short term pressure to gold as some sell it and sell it short to buy these “bargains” even if just for a short term bounce.
NFLX vs GLD weekly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NFLX%3AGLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08316411870&a=1101470276
Hi Mathew:
Thank-you for the charts as usual. Reading your commentary on Amazon and Netflix, I was wondering where you found the monthly oversold and RSI historical on those companies. I use to subscribe to stockcharts, but I can’t remember if they had the monthly historical data.
Hi John, the oversold readings I mentioned are based on the RSI which is simply one of the many indicators that can be chosen below the chart itself. It takes a subscription to make charts that go beyond 5 years back and monthly rather than daily or weekly and it takes a more expensive subscription to make quarterly and yearly charts. You can even add “price labels” to the RSI to get the exact readings as seen at the top of the following quarterly silver vs S&P chart.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24SPX&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=t4150319949c&a=902009365&r=1642979246756&cmd=print
Silver vs CRB (commodities):
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24CRB&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23129265945&a=1101509112
Silver looks good versus the 10 US Treasury and finished the week above the 50 week MA despite being rejected by pitchfork, Bollinger band and downtrend line resistance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER%3A%24UST&p=W&yr=3&mn=5&dy=0&id=p86306621702&a=1101517368
“Decades of high inflation”….Following this shorter term disinflation…Worth a listen IMHO….After 5:30 min…glta
Yep, (MMT) Modern Monetary Theory or “More Money Today” at its finest….
2022 Correction or Crash?
Report with nice historical charts (1929 crash, 2000 crash, 2008 crash, …)
2020 looks like only a correction on a 100 year chart
2000/2008 looks like one huge crash that was more severe than 1929
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4480883-the-stock-market-crash-is-likely-only-beginning
Gareth Soloway: Gold Will Outperform Bitcoin and Stocks this Year
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Palisades Gold Radio – Jan 19, 2021
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“Tom welcomes back Gareth Soloway, President, CEO & Chief Market Strategist for InTheMoneyStocks.”
“The markets appear to be experiencing deleveraging as large players exit while the smaller investors buy the dip. Bitcoin corrected early and we usually see a sell-off with crypto when equities correct. We’re near all-time highs for leveraged borrowing by investors. Excess leverage creates bigger sell-offs and the margin calls can wipe out investors.”
“Markets have been deleveraging and some stocks are starting to look attractive. Many technology names have been hit hard but the big names continue to support the indexes. Weakness is revealing itself in the underbelly of the markets. ”
“Gareth believes 2022 will be a taper until around March followed by a rate hike. The market will probably throw a tantrum because its accustomed to all the easy money. A drop of twenty percent in equity markets seems likely and will force the Fed to react cautiously. Eventually, the Fed will lose complete control and the flood of money will get out of control.”
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Time Stamp References:
0:00 Introduction
0:41 Market Relationships
1:55 Leverage & Sell-Offs
4:00 SPDR S&P Chart
5:42 – Bitcoin 40k Level
8:08 Taper Concerns
11:26 Rates & Fed Control
13:47 Current Plays
16:42 January Effect
19:06 Inflation and Gold
21:16 2018-2019 Gold
22:40 Fed Constraints
24:08 Silver Thoughts
25:31 Newmont Chart
26:21 Concluding Thoughts
27:23 Metal Targets 2022
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https://youtu.be/vyJ6URbP82M
Max Keiser says he has no idea who Gareth Soloway is, and then proceeds to say all trading based on technical analysis is worthless and is only 100% correct when looking backwards.
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That is a hilarious position to have coming from a guy that used his own “proprietary system” to predict early last year that by November of 2021 that we’d see $220,000 Bitcoin. Yeah…. That was an epic fail, and maybe he should have used technical analysis instead of his own proprietary method.
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Regardless, Max is always entertaining to listen to, for the comedic angle, and he does makes some good points about the Fed, central banks, the ever eroding purchasing power due to inflation, and the eventual failure of fiat currencies. He also correctly points out that all other “altcoins” in the cryptoverse, including Ethereum, are centralized with counterparty risk, and that Bitcoin is the only truly decentralized crypto – which is an important distinction.
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Max Keiser Says His $220,000 Bitcoin Call Is Coming, Plans to Exit Gold and Silver Completely
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Stansberry Research – Jan 14, 2022
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https://youtu.be/VqtGk6St9yk
Matthew posted this earlier in the week, but it is worth reposting here with thoughts on the cryptos.
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Russia Proposes Ban On Use And Mining Of Cryptocurrencies
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By Elena Fabrichnaya and Alexander Marrow – Reuters Business – January 20, 2022
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https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/russian-cbank-proposes-banning-cryptocurrencies-crypto-mining-2022-01-20/
Where do we get people like these Max Keisers etc.? People throw out these huge numbers off the top of their heads with no reality. Did he give a time frame? He better be prepared to wait a long time. And he is stark raving mad for exiting gold in particular.
Doc – Yes, Max Kaiser is one of the leading voices in the crypto community, and he is every bit as stark raving mad as any of the end-of-the-world doom and gloom gold bugs, but he isn’t a complete idiot, and does land some valid points on occasion. However when he has debated Peter Schiff in the past he was destroyed.
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As for the time frame on his $220,000 Bitcoin call, yes, it already came and went and was November of 2021.
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He mocked technical analysts for only being backward looking, and provided no evidence or data to disprove the value and tool of TA. Simultaneously he touts his “proprietary method” which was off by a landslide, and instead of Bitcoin breaking out in Nov of 2021 to all time highs at $220,000, it actually topped out at $69,000 on Nov 9th, and now has crashed 48% down to $36,000 as of Friday’s close. Maybe he should have used technical analysis instead of his “proprietary method.” Haha! 😉
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People whine and moan about the correction in Gold over the last 18 months, but it was far more mild, and far less of a crash than anything close to what we just saw not just in Bitcoin, but across the board in all the cryptos and altcoins.
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Max just rolled his forecast forward though to 2022 for the $220,000 target in Bitcoin… so rest easy. (if one fails then try and try again…) Keep in mind that 6-7 years ago he was calling for $100,000 Bitcoin, and that did seem absurd back then, and it hasn’t happened yet, but $69,000 was much closer than it’s been. Still he’s been off for years, but was an early adopter back when Bitcoin was $1-$10, so he’s done incredibly well in it, there is no disputing that. However, his recent disdain for Gold/Silver, when he was the one behind the original Silver Squeeze back in 2010-2011, is a bit of tragic comedy.
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Regardless, Bitcoin crashing 48% starting on the month where the CPI inflation reading came in 6.8% and then December’s CPI reading of 7% inflation, settles for good whether Bitcoin is the better inflation hedge over Gold (clearly BTC is not a good inflation hedge). Also, something that is billed as crypto CURRENCY that can fall by half in 2 months is a terrible “Store Of Value.” The HODLers have now turned to dogging on gold for it’s underperformance in years past, but miss the obvious point that Gold is not a speculative tech stock, and unlike Bitcoin, Gold actually is a store of value and “un-currency” of sorts, so it isn’t supposed to be traded for 3-5 bagger gains. Now the PM mining stocks are a different animal and they can go head to head with cryptos as far as volatility, but that isn’t what Bitcoin versus Gold as an inflation hedge or store of value is all about.
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So while Max Keiser and his throngs of followers are celebrating the bustling nation and engine of the global economy – El Salvador, because they have embraced cryptos and Bitcoin, those same people fail to realize that all the major G20 nations of the world still hold boring old Gold as money and store of value in reserves. This fact seems to escape the crypto kiddies, because it doesn’t fit their BTC to the moon narrative, but it doesn’t escape the central bankers. Gotta love it!!
Max isn’t an idiot, he’s a con artist and carnival barker. Mike Maloney is a fool for befriending him (since I think Mike is legit/honest).
Yeah, I also think Mike Maloney is a legit sound money guy. There are some overlaps in the sound money community between Gold and Bitcoin (decentralized, outside of fiat system, scarcity, etc…).
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Back in the day (before becoming a Bitcoin maximalist), Max Keiser was a Gold/Silver bull, so I could see where he and Mike would have some common ground, as compared to the average Joe. It was like Max and Peter Schiff used to be good buddies, and they did have some common ground, but now Max can’t stand Peter’s antiquated views, and Peter is just done with Max’s carnival barking. If nothing else, I find Max entertaining, and he is like the posterboy for Bitcoin maximalists, so I like to check in on his rants just for a chuckle.
Silver and all the gold/silver mining ETFs and indices got rejected last week at the most important of the weekly pivot points. Here’s the HUI, for example:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p35690454581
However, kingpin gold and bellwether NEM were not rejected and NEM even closed above its weekly Bollinger Bands. This is consistent with the overall picture which I still see as net bullish across all timeframes (above intraday).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=W&yr=2&mn=1&dy=0&id=p03094582057
Silver finished the week above the 30 week MA for the first time in 10 weeks and above the KAMA for the first time in 9 weeks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p63931108597&a=1101803911
Bucs finish below their MA. Chiefs at fork resistance.
The financial sector is in for a rough time.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLF&p=W&yr=6&mn=0&dy=0&id=p30371376748&a=1101843754
Can someone fill me in on Nomad Royalty? It seems like it’s got a huge investor (Orion Mine Finance 70%). Is anyone else nervous about that, if they decide to dump?
Also, what percentage of Gold/Silver/PMG’s do they have? Thanks
Hi Nawanda. We’ve had Nomad Royalty on the show a few different times, and in the last interview we got Vince to expand on their relationship with Orion Mine Finance. I seriously doubt they would dump their Nomad shares, as they are helping facilitate deals with producers and Nomad to daylight more value in (NSR) since royalty companies trade at better valuation metrics, and that is why they have such a large stake in them. They are business partners and it is mutually advantageous for both companies.
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(NSR) Nomad Royalty Unpacks Two New Cornerstone Gold Streaming Transactions And Q3 Financials
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December 10, 2021 – Korelin Economics Report
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http://www.kereport.com/2021/12/10/nomad-royalty-unpacks-two-new-cornerstone-gold-streaming-transactions-and-q3-financials/
thanks EX
With the $42.5 million financing Orion‘s share should be below 70% now
I’m not sold on Doc’s call about Ukraine nothing burger. Ben Ferguson radio show tonight painted a bleak picture concerning imminent Russian invasion. That mainstream media rather not talk about. Putin has outmaneuvered our political chess unwillingness for conflict. He’s going in. USA has called evacuation of American Embassy. The rest of freak show looks a lot like Afghanistan
Were they to take Biden to the Situation Room, he would turn out to be the situation
Two solutions, call Michael Corleone or call Tony Soprano
Tony Soprano said many years ago,
Don’t mess with the Russians
Off Topic: I’ve never had the slightest interest in cryptos until now. With Kitco showing BTCUSD 35,025 and ETHBTC 2,392 it’s time to pay attention.
May take a long position on Monica Kingsley’s advice, who as of Friday is still short both. Her daily email is available free to anyone who registers.
These two quotes are from her Friday update – the positions can change in a flash.
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Jan 21, 2022, 9:20 AM
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“Trading position – Bitcoin (short-term; futures; my take): the already (Jan 09) initiated short positions (100% position size) with stop-loss at 39,800 and initial downside target at 30,000 are justified from the risk-reward perspective.”
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“Trading position – Ethereum (short-term; futures; my take): the already (Jan 09) initiated short positions (100% position size) with stop-loss at 2,920 and initial downside target at 2,750 are justified from the risk-reward perspective.”
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https://monicakingsley.co/stock-trading-signals/2022/01/21/still-pushing-for-more/
ETHBTC should be ETHUSD
“Edit” flashed on and off again before I had a chance to make the change.
Thanks for those thoughts IrwinW. Yes, Monica is an interesting macro and technical trader and I read her posts over at ceo.ca sometimes. I’ve considered inviting her on the show to get her to share her insights with us periodically. It is noteworthy that she still sees the short opportunities in both Bitcoin and Ethereum, and that coincides with some of the technical outlook that others here on the blog shared earlier in the week.
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This will be an interesting week to watch the general markets, bonds, the precious metals, the commodities complex, and cryptos to see how the respond to any news emanated from the FOMC meeting.
XLB Materials Sector – weekly chart.
Am holding this and plan to continue doing so, however, one more 5% down week and three overlays shown may take me out.
The Chandelier (22,4) especially, which hasn’t been breached since early 2020
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https://schrts.co/QEQZiidK
Rhodium Price On The March Again As Demand From Auto Sector Rises
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Mining.com Editor – January 19, 2022
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“Rhodium prices are on the march again as original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) ramp up their demand for the shiny, silvery metal commonly used in vehicles’ catalytic converters.”
“Since the start of 2022, rhodium prices have pushed up sharply, rising from $14,250/ozt on January 4 to reach $17,500/ozt on January 11 – the highest since September 2021.”
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https://www.mining.com/rhodium-price-on-the-march-again-on-rising-demand-from-auto-sector/
Silver & Uranium: The Commodities To Own in 2022 – Rick Rule, Tavi Costa, Gwen Preston, Peter Krauth
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Thu, Jan 20, 2022 – 6ix Webinars
“Between inflation hedging, green industrial demand, and a nuclear market about to realize its need for fuel, silver and uranium are set to soar in the coming year. Join this webinar with Rick Rule and Tavi Costa, hosted by Resource Maven to understand why.”
“Electrification and inflation. These are major forces in our world right now. To take advantage, you need to know that they will both push commodity prices higher. Electrification is transforming how we live and what kinds of energy we use. Those transformations all require more metal.
And they demand more clean energy. That requires uranium because nuclear is essential to creating clean baseload power.
“Layer in that commodities reliably rise with growth – the simple economics of rising demand against supply that can’t keep up – and that inflation makes each pound of metal cost more. The result: electrification in an inflationary growth environment will power green metals in 2022.”
“And silver and uranium will outperform all the rest. Silver’s perfect combination of inflation hedging and green-industrial demand means it will shine in 2022. For uranium, demand is rising against insufficient supply and a huge new player that kicked the bull market off in the fall has immense buying yet to do, setting the stage for the kind of uranium rally that lets positioned investors retire.”
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https://webinars.6ix.com/6ix/Silver-Uranium-The-Commodities-To-Own-in-2022-With-Rick-Rule-and-Tavi-Costa-hosted-by-Resource-Maven
Otavio (Tavi) Costa @TaviCosta
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Jan 19, 2022 on Twitter
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Important reminder about Silver:
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https://twitter.com/TaviCosta/status/1483836200230154245/photo/1
How to Invest and Profit from Silver & Silver Stocks
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The Resource Maven – featuring Peter Krauth – Jan 21, 2022
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https://youtu.be/Urr22pFpgMo
Uranium stocks are going to have a rough ’22 compared to silver stocks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=URA&p=W&yr=2&mn=11&dy=0&id=p05846989874&a=1063105266
Is it possible UUUU could bounce at that light red speed line support off that bottom trendline?
That the blue fork support already failed, and there was a bearish MACD cross that you highlighted on that weekly chart, so that is more bearish. It may take UUUU a bit more downside to get oversold on the Slow Stochastics, and then eventually the RSI.
Currently, I’m looking to add one more tranche with a little dry powder, and wonder where you think a good level of support may come in for a bounce?
There will be plenty of bounces on the way down and one could start this week since it is at the 50% retracement level as well as the 61.8% Fib fan support but I wouldn’t want to put money on such a bounce with the opportunities in the gold and silver stocks right now. UUUU and the whole space has put in an impressive 5 wave advance in less than two years and will need time to get in shape for the next rise that is part of a new uptrend and not just a countertrend rally. The sector and the commodities complex essentially did in ’20-’21 what gold did between 2018 and 2020. November 2021 was to the uranium (and lithium, and others) what August 2020 was to gold.
It could be 2 years before new highs are seen but I’d watch the lower weekly Bollinger band which is currently at 5.44 for a place to possibly play a bounce in UUUU. That level roughly matches speed line support for the next two weeks.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUUU&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p76091297217&a=1101980032
Matthew – Thanks for that response back on UUUU and on the Uranium sector in general, especially from a medium-term perspective on the technicals.
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I have a much larger allocation to the gold and silver sectors, than I do to the Uranium sector, but I’m still quite bullish on the U-stocks for the next 2 years, and believe Uranium is headed to the high $60’s to low $70’s in that time, and that the stocks will respond with another big leg higher. It sounds like that process may take longer to unfold though, based on the chart outlook.
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Energy Fuels is a special case in that it has the other value driver of Rare Earths processing. REEs are waking up again, and there are few North American options with production capacity. I may add a bit more soon for a bounce and then lighten back up after that pop, for a more protracted correction. It is hard to imagine it lasting all of 2022 though, but I’ll give those charts you posted more consideration. Thanks.
Well, it gapped down and then dipped lower to turn up at my parallel channel line support. It will be interesting to see if the special things you mentioned about UUUU help it to have a shorter correction than its peers.
Whatever happens, it’s gold’s turn to outperform again after underperforming for the last 18 months.
Small add to MAG @$14.07
SILV. @$7.49
Hey Ex, my apology for the Foire Cannabis, Fior, call, that was a terrible pick. I can go to my local Tweed store and buy an ounce of smoke for 25% under the illegal trade so pricing power is gone from this sector. Dead money for now IMHO.
No worries Dan. I take responsibility for hitting the buy button, and went and researched it after you brought it up. In fairness almost all the pot stocks were decimated in 2021, so par for the course in that regards. I’m just starting to get back into the sector again now with the ETF (POTX).
I fully trust you did your DD, the whole market stank after that. Today I have bought more Brixton and Defiance today, still shopping but looking for the mid morning crash to buy more.
Also buying up American Manganese, AMY, and a bit of Big Ridge, BRAU.
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https://americanmanganeseinc.com/2022/01/
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BTW, Defiance Silver reminds me of Arizona Mining, it seems to have a great relationship to the price of silver, IMHO.
Stay tuned on Defiance Silver as we just did an interview with them that will be posting soon.
Good selection of guests – thanks for bringing them on the show