Monthly and Quarterly Closes – Gold and Silver hang on but the Gold Stock breakdown
Dave Erlfe, Founder and Editor of The Junior Miner Junky joins us to share his thoughts on the monthly and quarterly closes for gold, silver, and the underlying stocks. The rebound today in gold and silver managed to save the metals from a breakdown close but the stock ETFs, GDX and GDXJ did close at 1 year lows. We also discuss the merger between Agnico Eagle and Kirkland Lake.
Click here to visit Dave’s site and learn more about this newsletter.
What all this talk about stocks tanking, you call a couple percent tanking ??
Stocks will have to complete it’s bubble top before big selloff which won’t be for anytime soon, and when it happens miners will crash with stocks. Stop pushing miners they been making lower lows and lower highs for a year now. Big bullion banks will control gold and miners and will cause big wash out before metals start new run.
that is quite possible..no doubt…i trade w withđ stops Paul…i am never to sure of the exact moment…lmao
This David is outstanding analyst……I really listened hard while looking at charts…..He has a great eye plus fluid fundamental knowledge….Thank you very much for providing this sort of discussion….GLTA
Agreed. Dave E. has a good handle on both the technical levels to keep an eye on as well as the fundamental macro set up, and he is an outstanding analyst indeed.
We have a lot of time for Dave and enjoy getting his take on the markets each week, and we are blessed to have him as a regular guest here on the KE Report.
https://saturationtiming.blogspot.com/2021/09/gold-bounce-or-better.html
Absolutely classic TA formulation, but bear analysis predominates. Bounce? Yes. More?
Aussie U miners +10% Friday morning, following on from DNN Thursday. Hope CGN(1164HK) can also follow.
Yeah, I noticed the Uranium stocks had a nice bump today. I’ve been gradually nibbling at my 6 U stocks over the last few weeks and have them back up to about 45-50% positions in them again. It was a good trade to rotate out of them a few weeks back into that crazy surge, and then added them back when they pulled back down about 20% lower only 7-10 days later. If they pop again from here I’m at least half positioned, but I’d prefer to see an even larger pullback before adding enough to take them back to full positions.
Ex: It’s possible that the Uranium turn was last week when CCJ saturated on Thursday and then bottomed, closing low without saturation (a “weekend wash” head fake): https://tinyurl.com/2vc9pznu
URA and URNM were short on MaxSat numbers, but not by much. To confirm the turn I bought MGAFF yesterday (ugly candles). If that doesn’t kill the rally it’s off to the races!
Now BQSSF too. Uranium worms are turning !!!
Time for a pair trade. Buy NUGT sell SPXS
I had a nice quick SPXS trade from last week to this week, and was hoping to see the general markets bounce a bit more to the upside and then I was going to put that trade back on, but the markets pulled down even further and pushed SPXS even higher so I sold a bit too soon in retrospect.
Watching to see if there is a bump in the general markets next week to potentially jump back in.
Ex–
Any thoughts on Silver Bull? Saw it got whacked recently pretty good.
Hi Buzz. I haven’t owned Silver Bull since last year for a brief period, but keep tabs on it loosely on my Silver watchlist. It really is more of a base metals play with mostly Zinc, a great deal of Lead, and some Silver, and is more a really large, low-grade open pit operation, and thus more of an “optionality” play with leverage to rising metals prices.
Honestly, I hadn’t noticed that swan dive that SVB took earlier this week until you brought it up here, but it seems to be linked to this news release about the share distribution of Arras Minerals Shares that came out on 09/27/2021. Not sure all the dynamics at play with this, but the share price got chopped in half right after that. Granted it has been another ugly week in the Silver miners, but most didn’t drop like Silver Bull.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
Silver Bull Announces Completion of Distribution of Arras Minerals Shares to Silver Bull Shareholders
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/silver-bull-announces-completion-of-distribution-of
Silver broke out of its roughly 7 year base over a year ago and broke above its 600 week MA in the process. Yesterday, it returned to the scene and went 8 cents below that MA before reversing and finishing 56 cents/2.5%+ above it.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&yr=12&mn=0&dy=0&id=p96556714916&a=1035225708
I bet the Canadian dollar has bottomed and will confirm the big double bottom. It will probably easily hit 90+ in the next move but might stall around 86 and even 83 on the way. Longer term, I think it will achieve its 111.00 P&F price objective if not more.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CDW&p=W&yr=3&mn=7&dy=0&id=p27911433845&a=1035069495
Gold gave up 2 fork supports and its 2 year MA in 2 days but took them all back today. This adds plenty of significance to today’s action that goes way beyond the respectable dollar amount of the advance.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p13217294680&a=903805792
It also took back this fork:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p38633609596&a=931628026
BUT it close right at important downtrend resistance that must be overcome immediately to ignite powerful short-covering as well as renew interest among those seeking to go long…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p20515921388&a=1035235411
The XAU also closed right at resistance so more strength tomorrow is exactly what we need.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU&p=D&yr=1&mn=5&dy=0&id=p15940937961&a=986055675
For stockcharts subscribers, it looks like this fork that spans a decade is perfectly marking a major top for SPY vs GLD…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY%3AGLD&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73893484884&a=1004560814
It’s important to understand that stocks can crash versus gold (real money) without crashing versus the dollar if gold is suddenly marked up. Perhaps the manipulators will help gold from the long side to leave a lot of scared retail money in the dust and in dollars. It would make sense.
Today’s action was very important because it averted a quarterly MACD buy signal for the Dow versus Gold. Now I am watching MA and fork support that is less than 100 points below (5%+/-).
This one is quarterly so most won’t be able to view it properly:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=Q&yr=50&mn=0&dy=0&id=p88342823847&a=954530030
Matthew the point of this chart is what?…To show that longer term price action is favoring the miners as macd measures?..Any response is welcomed…thanx in advance…
So you do care if the tiny miners sector is stronger than the general market?…Is that a hallmark historically of gold bulls?…something like that that you are aware og?
Larry, the Dow-Gold ratio is important to stock investors as well as gold investors. The stock market is not the best place to be when it is in a downtrend versus gold even if it happens to be rising versus the dollar.
Gold mining is a tiny sector but gold itself trades more daily dollar volume than the S&P 500.
https://www.sunshineprofits.com/media/cms_page_media/2018/11/23/1.jpg
The gold miners are different than gold in that they can do well regardless of the stock market if other conditions are right.
As a reminder to anyone clicking on the chart in question, it won’t look anything like it is supposed to if you don’t have a “Pro” level subscription to stockcharts.
Thanks Matthew..No i have no pro subscription…The chart is difficult to decipher…glta
Sorry about that. When I post anything “bigger” than a weekly chart, it is worthless to non-subscribers.
PMs are looking weak and it surely will continue for sometime yet. It is with this notion that I am preparing to close my remaining PM investments as it is now time to focus and prioritise on other factors in this increasingly troubled world.
Australia has become one of the “great social experiments” in the world with everything that is occurring within our society against the backdrop of covid-19. Im not sure how many here are aware of what is happening in Australia? It is truly worrying! Vaccine mandates throughout various employment sectors, increasing law enforcement powers, increasing penalties for those who dont “toe the line”, media bans on police, thought crime questioning on random citizens, livelihood threats, mass coersion, blatant two tier class system society, etc etc. What is happening is so unjustified and Orwellian like. We are no longer a democracy. “Innocent until proven guilty” has been reversed, “freedom of speech” no longer applies. This has been the case for a while but the sheer blatant show of corrupt strength has been a massive eye-opener. Intimidation is the goal here! And the worst part… we the masses are just eating this sh*t up and kicking our fellow man whilst hes down.
So many people have sold themselves out and Im not referring to the vaccines. They have sold themselves out as they are so willing to look down on someone else if they do not resonate with their rationale. A great shame on human instinct is to ridicule if they cannot accept. When did we stop listening to others? What happened to compassion for our fellow man? Why do we feel so threatened and in direct competition of each other? One of the oldest tricks in acquisition and conflict is divide and conqueor and we have fallen for it 100%.
As a pro-choice individual I welcome everyone elses choices. I may not agree but I respect. We all walk our own unique path in life so why not just worry about our own “backyards” rather than fighting the worlds battles? These truly are interesting times guys. So many interesting and insightful characters here on KE report. It is an intriguing and healthy if not passionate forum. Ive long enjoyed the perspective of others the world over. My 12 years in the Gold and Silver game has made me so rich in knowledge, not so much in money but I would not have it any other way. All the best to all and as Excelsior would say: Ever upwards!
Oz………. YES IT IS TRULY SAD…………
Well said. Freedom is everyoneâs goal and it requires freedom of choice as long as others are not affected negatively. If that is the case, there must be a discussion and fair and just resolution. Possibly difficult, but necessary to try for all. Special Interests should not be allowed to buy influence and corruption should be dealt with quickly to protect the safety and well being of all according to the laws promulgated to support the Constitution.
+1
Yes… Ever upwards amigo.
Agreed. We are living in very turbulent times, and sadly, from what I’ve seen being reported over from Australia — it is truly shocking. Individual liberties are being eroded, and replaced with an increasingly authoritarian police state. Very Orwellian indeed, where people are turning on family and neighbors for the slightest variations in philosophies or infractions of draconian mandates. It is sad how successful the elitist main stream media has been in getting everyone so divided, that now nobody remains “innocent until proven guilty” with societies rush to judgment by narrative or political preference, or by cramming the herd ideology down every free-thinking citizens throats.
> Definitely wild times, and I wish you well navigating the choppy seas we have in front of us my friend.
Ozibatla, I can understand the desire to focus in life on what is most important, and the desire to cash out of the PM investments in your portfolio. The PM sector has been under a great deal of downward pressure since late summer of 2020, and many investors have had a rough slog of it.
Having said that, I believe most of the damage has been inflicted to the charts and to the mining stocks at this point, and that medium to longer term, that the PM markets still have much further to run to the upside. We are much closer to a basing and bottoming period, because the longer the corrective move draws on, it will continue exhausting the sellers. Sure, there may be more tax loss selling, or more weakness if Gold breaks down through $1675 to the low $1600’s, or if Silver pierces through $21.50 down towards $19. That is still a possibility; but one I’ll be doing my best to accumulate into, not liquidate out of. Corrective moves don’t last forever, and there will be a continuation of the larger secular PM bull and commodities bull in the not so distant future.
Until then, wishing you well sir, and please come back and check in once in a while with our band of roustabouts and contrarian thinkers here at the KE Report.
Ever Upward!
A+..
Thanks Larry.
…..roustabouts and contrarian thinkers ….
I was about to suggest, that Oz visit the Orphan Section (political)… for an in depth study … đ
For sure OOTB. Haha! đ
Great points ex!
Ozi,
I share your story I also did not do well in my early years Investing with gold and let me tell you it was not for lack of trying as I like many others slept very little and stayed up most nights trying to cross my dots and find direction. It was not till many years later that I knew what I was fighting was the banks not myself and instead of fighting them in regards to investments I figured I would play the same game and think like them. For many years I listened to many gold bugs and I lost plenty itâs not till I put the emotions aside of a gold bug and invested more with my head and trends.
I urge you not to through the towel in. From a short term trading perspective, I donât like playing that game as much. You need to have patience in this game and as bob said the other day if a company makes 4x-6x your money at the very least pull out your initial investment.
I urge many who do not have a stock charts account to get one or just pull up whatever chart you have and blow up a monthly chart on the top 20 small cap and large cap miners from a 20 year perspective. You will clearly see the bear and bull market within the overall bull market and they are all timed give or take lasting 18-24 months within runs. Look weâre we are currently and you can see what x is saying. We are very close if not close already to a basing â long termâ bottom which is going to be extremely rewarding to the one who can wait this out. By 2024 these miners will be 12x your money if not way more from these bottom. The cycles say it, the fed is telling you what they will be doing and nothing absolutely nothing has changed. Gold and silver are heading way higher and these miners will have there time very soon I promise.
Glen
Glenfidish – Good thoughts in your response and a solid suggestion on pulling up the longer term chart on the miners and to think about this from a longer term investment opportunity. I agree that by 2024, the miners will have run multi-fold indeed.
Ditto……… On the LONG CHART…… JtheLong… lol .. đ
I have a high school friend that married an Australian woman and they have a house in Queensland and one in Houston. They are currently in Houston and haven’t been able to get back to Australia due to Covid restrictions. However, they aren’t sure if they want to go back but they aren’t sure if they want to stay…
Fits in with this discussion…
Ned Kelly needed!
I sense the fear factor whenever I go out shopping these days, everything is going higher you don’t have to name it, it is across the board inflation. The public is finally realizing that inflation is not just a menace anymore but a destroyer of everyone’s standard of living. Prosperity is in for a huge decline.
Some of the prices of precious metal stocks that we are seeing now will look ridiculously low in six months to a year from now.
Now if we can just get the people to understand why PMs are real money and a protection against inflation. Once they figure that out, they can demand action against Central Banking for price suppression and fraud. Then they can go to Disney World.
+1 Dt
And even more ridiculous by 2023-2024
Agreed guys. Great points in this thread.
Labrador hit every day since their couple of day pop off the bottom Bolllinger. Throw them in the pot of miners with potential getting cheaper.
WeirdâŚLabrador jumped from down to +2.8%. HummmmmâŚ.
Now + 4%
I like David E commentary all the time. I donât think weâve seen decoupling in the mining shares from the general market. I bet that will happen in the coming month or two. Itâs probably a great way to pick a bottom.
Re Australia:
The people of Australia gave up their gun rights and now have a big problem. Canada is right behind Australia. The US in right behind Canada.
Itâs a shame the mama bears are coming out in full force and there are very few men with an IQ above 110 with testicles. People better wake up and start taking local action. Your still free on paper, but that ends with your apathetic behavior.
Good points Chartster.
Thanks, Man!
Youâre doing a great job with these interviews, BTW.
You and Cory are a good duo.
Much appreciated. We both work hard each day on these interviews and aim to serve.
A Gem of a site !!
As bad as the US government is, often downright evil, if there is a turn to the good it will probably emanate from here.
(DEF) Defiance Silver to Drill Lucita at the Company’s Zacatecas Project
1) Continued drilling in the main resource area at the San Acacio mine designed to test the limits of the vein system to update the resource estimate.
2) Having received a positive response from the necessary authorities, the commencement in early October of initial drilling at the Lucita project.
3) Additional district-scale surface exploration, including ongoing mapping and sampling at the Lucita and Veta Grande Sur, which is underway.
4) Ongoing core re-logging of the historical drill holes.
The importance of maintaining Vitamin D levels for a healthy lifestyle. It improves so many important functions.
Sunshine too! From “Old” Melbourne: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TT6ndp1WlyA
A nice weekly bull hammer reversal for GLD…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=3&mn=6&dy=0&id=p07837781245&a=1033969208
I thought this was the mining sector…..
Can you believe I was going to pick up some Sierra metals few weeks back and decided not to against my approach and current funds.
Up 44% what is going on anyone have a clue?
The only scary thing though is the monthly gap left behind I always hate that.
Most recent event: https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20210929005969/en/
thanks…. almost missed that one piece of info……. great chart…
no shortage of market experts ??, predicting the rise of gold and silver in particular for weeks and months.
As before, same today, even with a marginal positive in metal prices, the producers continue to ignore it and can’t get out of their own way. Need them to outperform on future expectation, not go the other way.
Good luck, Spanky.
Anyone have any thoughts on this one….?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/welcome-news-cryptos-biden-admin-seeks-regulate-stablecoin-issuers-banks
One company – which is already a bank and is certain to have a substantial advantage over its peers when the new regulation is implemented – will be Silvergate Capital, a bank which as Morgan Stanley dubbed earlier this week when it initiated coverage dubbed “a crypto bank like no other.” Furthermore, the fact that Silvergate will be the issuer of Facebook’s upcoming stablecoin, Diem – and one can be absolutely certain that once cleared, Facebook will seek to not only capitalize the ongoing shift to digital currencies but monopolize as much of it as it can – only assures that when the administration does move on with its treatment of stablecoins, SI will be one of the biggest winners. And, with a market cap of just $3 billion, we fully expect the company to be acquired by either its JV partner Facebook or some other major bank at multiples of its current market value.
The AEM/KL merger was a disappointment. Two words: No Premium. These types of mergers will set precedent moving forward. In essence, AEM got away with one here on the cheap.
Cheers for the comments guys. I suppose I should clarify somewhat: When I stated I was getting out of PMs, I meant in the short to mid term. I have decided to always keep a little physical bullion for a “rainy day” and also for my family. Will always pop in and out of this forum.
Oz: Take heart. There is significant antipodean resistance:
https://twitter.com/supergranlinz/status/1441745273483677697
Media monsters and their mavens censor this and all other such truth.
Yeah, measured move on the GDXJ to 92. LOL…….