I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the stealth rally that has been going on in the Lithium stocks the last few months. It’s mentioned here on the KER blog a number of times with hardly anyone responding, and yet the companies are clearly thrusting higher.

The fact that so few are discussing this move higher in Lithium stocks on most of the resource sites and blogs is quite encouraging as it isn’t a froth sentiment, and may fortell of investors from outside the normal resource circles getting invested (likely off the interest in Tesla’s success and battery focus).

> Even on Tuesday many of the Lithium stocks were…. Energized.

Symbol – Lithium Stocks – Daily Change %
IBAT.CN International Battery Metals Ltd. +50.00%
BRZ.V Bearing Lithium Corp. +33.33%
AVL.TO Avalon Advanced Materials Inc. +26.09%
NVT.V Nortec Minerals Corp. +25.00%
CXO.AX Core Lithium Ltd +20.00%
LPD.AX Lepidico Limited +18.75%
LEXI.V Lithium Energi Exploration Inc. +18.18%
RCK.V Rock Tech Lithium Inc. +17.37%
LTUM Lithium Corporation +16.10%
LPI.AX Lithium Power International Limited +15.22%
JOR.V Jourdan Resources Inc. +12.50%
ARE.AX Argonaut Resources NL +12.50%
EP.V Empire Metals Corp. +11.90%
WML.V Wealth Minerals Ltd. +11.76%
ASN.AX Anson Resources Limited +9.37%
VMC.AX Venus Metals Corporation Limited +9.09%
AGY.AX Argosy Minerals Limited +8.70%
GNENF Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. +8.54%
SIE.V Sienna Resources Inc. +8.33%
LAC Lithium Americas Corp. +8.20%
SQM Sociedad Química y Minera de Chile S.A. +7.65%
LIT Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF +7.60%
PLU.V Plateau Energy Metals Inc. +7.32%
PLS.AX Pilbara Minerals Limited +6.95%
ALB Albemarle Corporation +6.75%
LI.V American Lithium Corp. +6.30%
LIT.AX Lithium Australia NL +5.80%
FAT.CN Far Resources Ltd. +5.56%
NLC.V Neo Lithium Corp. +5.53%
CRE.V Critical Elements Lithium Corporation +5.41%
VEIN.V Pasofino Gold Limited +5.00%
POR.V Portofino Resources Inc. +5.00%
PKX POSCO +4.97%
RTM.V RT Minerals Corp +4.76%
SAV.L Savannah Resources Plc +4.00%
SLL.V Standard Lithium Ltd. +3.44%
ML.V Millennial Lithium Corp. +3.32%
BCN.L Bacanora Lithium Plc +3.23%
LRS.AX Latin Resources Limited +3.03%
AVZ.AX AVZ Minerals Limited +2.94%
SGMA.V Sigma Lithium Resources Corporation +2.86%
PE.V Pure Energy Minerals Limited +2.78%
FMC FMC Corporation +2.55%
PLL.AX Piedmont Lithium Limited +2.50%
MMS.V Macarthur Minerals Limited +2.22%
KSN.AX Kingston Resources Limited +1.79%
GXY.AX Galaxy Resources Limited +1.54%
FL.V Frontier Lithium Inc. +1.32%
ORE.AX Orocobre Limited +0.81%
EMH.AX European Metals Holdings Limited +0.42%

I forgot to include Livent, up over 8% right below Lithium Americas Corp (LAC).

LTHM Livent Corporation +8.04%

This video, despite it being from August, actually has a surprisingly dense amount of macro information on the Lithium markets, EVs, batteries, and related topics before getting to his stock picks, and is a great primer for anyone that needs an update on the Lithium demand story. The guy is a bit overly excitable, but the information he compiles and shares is worth the review.

__________________________________

3 Lithium Mining Stocks about to Explode

Motivation 2 Invest

https://youtu.be/Tmcu2yH0jLo

I include copper and nickel as battery metals

Good copper plays are probably the easiest way
Same for the large lithium plays (SQM, Albermale, Livent)
Smaller lithium plays that can compete with the big ones have the highest leverage

If the Democrats win the senate that will boost the battery metals even more higher

Agreed Thomas on Copper & Nickel being Battery Metals and had mentioned them briefly up above, but only elaborated on the Lithium stocks stealth bull market.

Many of the PGM stocks are also Nickel/Copper stocks and they’ve really been on the move along lately as well

Do you have a list of nickel plays?

NOT.V Noront Resources + 42.5%

Yes, I’ve got a Nickel list on my computer, but I’m not in front of it at present, but will post it here later this afternoon.

Hey Thomas. I’m back in front of my computer again, and here is the watchlist of Nickel companies compiled a little while back. This list may need to be vetted, and keep in mind that almost all base metals projects (whether Copper, Nickel, Zinc, Lead, Platinum/Palladium, etc…) are polymetallic, so there are few “pure plays” in any of those metals. As a result some companies may be a primary PGM with huge Nickel credits, or a Copper/Nickel company, or VMS Gold/Copper/Nickel/Silver/Lead/Zinc deposit etc…

Symbol Companies with Nickel Exposure

AMC.L Amur Minerals Corp
AAL.L Anglo American Plc
ANTO.L Antofagast Plc
ARL.AX Ardea Resources
ATL.TO Atlatsa Resources Corp
ANW.AX Aus Tin Mining
AUZ.AX Australian Mines
BAR.TO Balmoral Resources Ltd
BHP BHP Billiton Ltd
BTT.V Bitterroot Resources
BMZ.AX Black Mountain Resources Ltd
BSX.AX Blackstone Minerals Ltd
JAY.L Bluejay Mining
CHEM Canadian Energy Materials Corp
CML.V Canickel Mining
CZI.AX Cassini Resources
CLA.AX Celsius Resources
CTM.AX Centaurus Metals Ltd
CXN.TO Chalice Gold Mines Ltd
NICO.CN Class 1 Nickel and Technologies Ltd
CLE.V Clean TeQ Holdings
DKM.AX Duketon Mining
ERA.PA Eramet SA
FPX.V First Point Minerals
FMG.AX Fortescue Metals
GGI.V Garibaldi Resources
GIGA.V Giga Metals Corp
GLEN.L Glencore Plc
GRDM.V Grid Metals Corp
PGE.V Group Ten Metals
HLND Highlands Pacific Ltd
HZM.TO Horizonte Minerals
IGO.V Independence Group
IMT.V International Montoro Resources Inc
2362.HK Jinchuan Group
JUB.V Jubilee Platinum
LND.L Landore Resources
LEG.AX Legend Mining Ltd
MLX.AX Metals X
MCR.AX Mincor Resources
MTH.AX Mithril Resources Ltd
MZM.AX Montezuma Mining
NAM.V New Age Metals Inc.
NCP.TO Nickel Creek Platinum Corp
NNN.V Nickel One
NOB.V Noble Mineral Exploration
NILSY Norilsk Nickel
NOT.V Noront Resources
NAN.V North American Nickel Inc
KZZ Nunavik Nickel Mines Ltd
PAN.AX Panoramic Resources
PIO.AX Pioneer Resources Ltd
POM.TO Polymet Mining
POS.AX Poseidon Nickel Ltd
NIC.V Pure Nickel Inc
RMI.AX Resource Mining Corp
RIO.L Rio Tinto
RNKLF RNC Minerals
RRS.V Rogue Resources Inc
RXL.AX Rox Resources
SME.V Sama Resources
S.TO Sherritt International
SIE.V Sienna Resources
S32.AX South32 ltd
SRCH.V SearchLight Resources
SHL.V Spruce Ridge Resources
SGQ.AX St George Mining Ltd
SX.CN St Georges Eco-Mining
SMMYY Sumitomo Metal Mining Co
TLM.AX Talisman Mining
TTC.CN Tartisan Nickel Corp
XTM.V Transition Metals
VALE Vale SA
WM.TO Wallbridge Mining Co
WSA.AX Western Areas

That‘s really a long list -:)

Only had Noront and Norilsk Nickel in mind as a pure Nickel plays.

As mentioned in the blurb above the list, many are polymetallic base metals plays (like most base metals plays) with Nickel as a contributing commodity. There are very few “pure play” deposits of any type of base metal, so most are a mixed bag.

Democrats won the senate.
That probably will trigger a green energy push and a new boom for battery metals

https://www.washingtonpost.com/elections/election-results/georgia-senate-runoffs-2021/

That thesis on the increased attention in the green/clean energy and the battery/energy metals makes sense to me Thomas. I’ve gone looking for battery manufacturing videos & analysis, Lithium analysis, and green energy analysis, and I was surprised to see so many younger analysts, pundits, or youtube market commentators already in the space.

That was one of the points I was trying to make above with Lithium stocks, is that I’m surprised how much they’ve gone up, and I’m talking about 20ish stocks that are the biggest fish in that pond, and most resource sites aren’t really discussing it. It very well may be that the new Robinhood investors that cut their teeth on tech stocks and Tesla, have found their way into battery metals, when typical resource investors have lost interest. This means if the old guard resource investors finally get back allocations in some of the main Lithium names, similar to what is playing out right now with Uranium stocks, that the sector will really get on more people’s radars. I believe this will only amplify their interest in Copper and Nickel, and for the other types of batteries Platinum or even Vanadium.

It will remain a niche’ sector, but a growing niche sector that grows into a trending market, which should be pretty exciting to be part of.

That came out weird upon rereading it. I didn’t mean to imply Copper or Nickel were niche sectors, as they are large base metals industrial behemoths. I just meant the clean/green energy commodities like Lithium, Uranium, Vanadium mining companies, and even a resurgence in Rare Earths, as part of the green/clean energy sector is a niche market. There are also big audiences for Solar, Wind, Hydro, Run of River, Geothermal power that are cross pollinating with the Energy metals and Battery metals sectors.

Lows to highs are what matter to me, not lows through present.

Understood. That would be much more time consuming to post each range individually. March 18th or 19th was the sector low in most PM stocks, and is plenty fine to illustrate the point that many royalty companies outperformed the miners in the very bullish run from the pandemic shock correction low to present.

To make it crystal clear, I am not saying that outperformance will continue, as I expect the miners will begin to outperform most of the royalty companies moving forward. The facts simply point out that many royalty companies did far better than most expected the last few years and even over the bullish last 9 months in the PM sector.

It is relevant to take a look back, because there were many prominent voices that were stating they’d underperform the miners for the last few years, and those people were incorrect and missed a solid opportunity.

No Ex, it’s not plenty fine. GDX went up 184%, not 97%. Considering the way royalty stocks move, your approach was probably disproportionately hard on the miners. I didn’t check, it could be hard on the royalties as well but more of them are making highs now rather than 5 months ago like the miners.
The funny thing is, this ignores the miners that really did well. Impact went up almost 6 times and Brixton went up 7 times and many others did as well or better.

Yes Matthew it is plenty fine to look at returns from a major inflection point to present day.

I completely understand the point your were making quite well Matthew, and already stated that it would have been much more time consuming to post each low to high range for every stock individually. It wouldn’t have changed the main point that seem lost on you, that many royalty companies outperformed the GDX over the last few years, and even since last March.

Honestly, I didn’t pick the Sector Low for all asset classes to be hard on the miners (which I own a ton of and have way more weight to than the royalty companies), so that assertion is ridiculous. I already explained why I picked both time periods if you’d read my actual responses, instead of postulating why you think I did something.

Look these charts were for quick demonstration purposes, but you want to argue with point using Brixton and Impact which aren’t even in the GDX or even close to comparable to a royalty company, so you’re just cheery picking to be right on some abstract point.

Again, the performance chart from Jan 2018 was as far back as I could go in stockcharts based on the companies selected, and the last few years has been plenty bullish for the Precious Metals sector, so should give an indication of how things played out. If I could have gone back 10 years I would have to show a longer time period, but not all the royalty companies were around back then. The ones that were around still outperformed the miners as general trend. You may not like that, but that is what played out.

More importantly, I picked the performance chart off the March 18 sector low on the second chart because that was macro pandemic event that caused a crash in all asset classes and was a major low in the in whole PM sector. That is a very fair place to start measuring performance from, and I didn’t think it would be met with any insults or negative comments when posting it, because it is just performance data off the low to present day.

If you want to get into low to high performance then many of the royalty companies would likewise have much higher numbers and still outpeformed the GDX. If you want to cherry pick then Ely Gold Royalties was up 1300%+ at one point as an example, crushing almost all mining stocks. There are always outliers, but as a general theme, many of the mid to small royalty companies outperformed the miners on any time period since March, and over most time periods the last few years.

Metalla – MTA’s low was actually on March 13th at $3.51 and raised up to $13.05 today far outperforming most Gold mining stocks, and it would have been more idea to use that date if I was trying to be hard on the miners (which I wasn’t).

Metalla was my largest weighting in a royalty company most of last year, and I had mentioned so a few different times, and was vocal about picking up in March & April of last year as I was doing it “real time”. You posted something a few months back about being in Metalla for short time, but feeling it was looking top heavy and that there were better opportunities, discussing buying things like BBB and MUX that got crushed in comparison to how Metalla performed.

Now, at this point, yes Metalla is getting top heavy, and the valuation is getting ahead of itself, so I liquidated a big piece of my position in MTA yesterday and today, but was sure glad I was invested in it more than Brixton. The reverse situation is now setting up, where I believe moving forward that Brixton will gain on Metalla, (even though it is silly to compare a $508 Million Mid-tier Royalty company with a $53 Million Jr Gold/Silver explorer, as they are apples and oranges and different stages of exposure to the Precious Metals space).

If you want to go ahead and look at trough to peak performance for every single royalty company since March, or since 2019 or 2018, or whenever then knock yourself out. The point was simply that not all royalty companies will have the same performance as Franco Nevada, and many have out-performed the miners for years now. Yes there individual periods where miners have had fantastic gains, if you traded them perfectly (and all traders, including you are nowhere close to perfect), but of course that is the case, and why we all speculate in Jr miners.

I’ll say it for the 4th or 5th time, that moving forward, I’d expect the miners to outpeform the royalty companies during bullish phases, but they also won’t get crushed as hard during selloffs. They are a different (not better or worse) kind of PM exposure than investing in Senior Producers, which is different than investing in smaller Jr producers, and much different than investing in advanced developers, or Jr explorers. It’s just another way to invest in PMs other than the metal itself, and overall royalty companies have a superior longer term business model with more revenue per employee, less execution risk from 1-2 projects, a diversified basket of assets, and they get paid on back end production over many years, despite the gyrations of the individual miners. For the coming leg of the bull market, I like the Jr Miners best, the Mid-tiers second best, I don’t hold the Majors, and I like the Royalty companies for less volatile exposure to PMs. I don’t expect a Mid-tier like Maverix to perform like a small explorer, as they achieve different purposes in my portfolio.

Taylor Dart on Sandstorm

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397323-sandstorm-gold-valuation-finally-getting-interesting

Remember this folks,

There are many story tellers in this world and in the markets! Many pundits who preach the word of technical analysis or direction if market. And what do May realize? They lose money with them hand over fist. Point being is I’ve been through it all and Blue collar, university candidate and well groomed wall street players lose money more often then none.. I’ve learned economics on my own 10 year course 12 hours a day self made man. Been through it all and street smart or say trading street smart. If it sounds to good it’s bs. Glen has a record you all know..

Gold will head higher in due term!

Patience

Thomas – I had read that same article from Taylor Dart on Sandstorm recently, and was surprised he was more bullish than he normally is (as he is bearish on about 3/4 of the companies he covers, even when they are surging higher). It was still kind of a back handed compliment to (SAND) but at least he acknowledged that after the 35% pullback in Sandstorm recently that it represents better value.

I picked up some (SAND) on 12/21/20 at $7.54 and 12/22/20 at $7.13 (so my cost basis is $7.34), and feel it has a good chance of getting back up close to it’s recent peak of $10.54. That wouldn’t be a wild gain, like we see in the Jr Miners, but I parked some funds in SAND specifically for some of the reasons mentioned above.

Overall royalty companies have a superior longer term business model, with more revenue per employee, less execution risk from 1-2 projects like individual miners, they a diversified basket of assets (Sandstorm has over 200 royalties and streams which is quite impressive), and they get paid on back-end production over many years, while their individual mining partners are the ones doing most of the capital raising, share dilution, and taking most of the risks. Royalty companies simply harvest the cream off the top.

Again, I don’t expect them to outperform most individual gold miners in a raging bull market, but if we do get some market dislocations and the miners take it in the pants, I also don’t see as much downside from here in a company like Sandstorm.

Just another iron in the PM fire. 🙂

Zacks: Analysts Anticipate Sandstorm Gold Ltd. (SAND) (SSL) Will Announce Earnings of $0.06 Per Share

by Liza Goodheart on Jan 1st, 2021

https://theenterpriseleader.com/2021/01/01/zacks-analysts-anticipate-sandstorm-gold-ltd-nasdaqsand-will-announce-earnings-of-0-06-per-share.html

Ex, good decision to take profits on MTA

I made the comment some days ago that MTA looks overpriced compared to NSR

There is also a nice article on seeking alpha, pointing in the same direction

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4397068-metalla-royalty-streaming-lofty-valuation-for-junior-royalty-company

Agreed Thomas, and I stated up above that Metalla is getting top heavy, and the valuation is getting ahead of itself, which is why I sold a big chunk yesterday and today.

There may still be some more upside left, but in this case it’s had one hell of a run from MTA’s low on March 13th at $3.51 and raised up to close at $13.05 today, far outperforming most Gold mining stock during that time period. I am looking to deploy those funds into Gold & Silver Producers, and am just trying to figure out which positions I want to top up. I want to get through any political noise from tomorrows US election circus first, and if we do get the sell down Glen and Doc expect, then I’ll move those MTA funds into a new home.

Agreed, that ultimately one ones to look at individual trough to peak performance from the lows to the highs for the performance, but that would take charting each royalty companies range individually versus GDX’s range.

I never said anything about applying the past to the future. The data simply shows that many royalty companies out-peformed the Sr miners as the PM bull market has unfolded.

I provided the 3 year look back at performance, because that is as far back I as could go in stockcharts with the selected companies, (likely because one of the companies listed started trading back in Jan of 2018).

I also provided a look back at how the Royalty companies and GDX have performed coming out of the March 18th sector low as the pandemic shock correction hit all markets and assets classes across the board with the same bearish macro event.

To see how they’ve all performed from the March lows to present is quite relevant and far from meaningless. It clearly shows that a number of Royalty companies still out-peformed the Sr Gold miners once again, even when all sectors rose quite substantially out of that bottom. If we adjusted for most opportune timing, that was the moment to look at where everything was plumbing it’s lows.

You didn’t have to say anything about applying the past to the present or future because that’s what you/we are doing when we use charts. There would be no reason to bring them up otherwise. We invest in the present with expectations about the future based on the past. That’s what charts are all about. The key is to compare apples to apples with respect to cycles, i.e., where we’re at with respect to underlying trends.
During the bear market we had after 2011, royalty companies clearly were top performers, on average and the charts tell me that they will not be near the top when this new bull market ends. Again, some smaller companies can and will do better because they’re on a different trajectory with respect to growth but the well-established names are unlikely to beat the miners.
The moves off the March low are definitely more relevant but we can’t say they’re “far from meaningless” in general. The reason is that the technical shape today is what matters, not at the March low. For example, MTA looks like it will top soon versus SILJ, as I stated earlier. Of course that’s not a “done deal” but it’s close and the risk/reward of SILJ is clearly superior intermediate to long term. In the very short term, some outperformance by MTA wouldn’t surprise me.
I would have a helluva lot less net worth right now had I chosen FNV or RGLD at the March low and the same probably goes for many smaller companies.

Charts are the data collected from the past and not intended to extrapolate out into the future at the same rate. They are simply a screenshot of what happened, and what happened was many of the royalty companies outperformed GDX in the last few years, and even since the March sector low to present, which was a very bullish time for the Precious Metals sector.

That data on the charts was far from meaningless, as many of us on here had mentioned positioning in the Mid to small royalty companies (like Metalla, Maverix, Abitibi/Golden Valley, EMX, Ely gold, Sailfish, Elemental, Nomad, the last few years and during the March lows, and they have been quite solid investments.

Personally, I’ve not ever advocated that Franco or Royal would outperform the miners in this bullish cycle, but respect that some investors are putting money in those for dividends and more stable longer term growth. Those types of investors in FNV or RGLD often do not have the same risk appetites for investing in the riskier Jr mining sector or even stand alone Sr producers. Franco attracts the most conservative type of PM investor, and is nothing like investing in smaller Silver producers, or Gold developers, or PM explorers. They are apples and oranges.

Lastly, I never stated or indicated that the royalty companies would keep outperforming the miners into to future, and in fact, stated several times now that I agree with you that they’ve gotten a bit lofty in valuation, and that moving forward the miners will likely outperform.

Re: “Charts are the data collected from the past and not intended to extrapolate out into the future…” That is correct but does not have anything to do with the fact that charts are used to make decisions today and form expectations about the future. The last thing I would advocate for is extrapolation but that’s exactly what you are doing when making a case for your royalties based on past performance. This is where you and I have had trouble in the past. I am always looking at the picture today, because today is all we have, while you bring up all kinds of things that have no bearing on the reasons for my investment decisions. Brixton is a good example. You held it through thick and thin and didn’t like it as a result. I had no such baggage but you thought your points were material to the present situation. They weren’t and it went up massively like I thought it would.
That’s the situation now. The future can prove me wrong, not past performance, especially not past performance based on measures “to the present” or over three years that only a non technical buy-and-holder would care about (wrongly, I might add).

Matthew we just look at things very differently, but the issues we’ve had in the past were when you would twist what I was saying into something I wasn’t saying, when you’d skip/delete/ignore whole points of the position I was making, or when you’d make it personal getting ugly and start insulting. Let’s not go there again.

I mentioned for several years that I was positioning in Royalty companies, and quite often you’d chime in about they’d underperform the miners in a big bull run. I actually agreed with you many times and on many points, just like I’ve done today, and you don’t accept the agreement, but shift the discussion in to different areas, deflecting or looking to be right on some narrow philosophical point you wanted to make.

The charts I posted are not meaningless, and show black & white pricing data that many royalty companies, particularly the medium to small companies, actually outperformed the GDX during very bullish periods for the miners. That is all those posts were demonstrating, and I’ve stated several times, I don’t expect that continue. For you to continue to claim you know what I’m doing and that it’s to extrapolate out those same results into the future is disingenuous an incorrect.

As for Brixton, we disagree with the fundamentals on the company, why it initially surged so hard outperforming so many other companies in 2016 (and I was invested in it then and following it closely), and their strategy & execution over 2017, 2018, 2019, and 2020. I actually posted regularly on what I was doing with my position this last summer and mentioned selling he majority of my position (3/4 of it) near the highs. I bought back in reluctantly as it corrected, because I still felt it had further to run, but in hindsight that was a mistake. I should have sold all of the position last summer and not re-entered because it has been a sector laggard and underperformed most of the other Silver developers and Silver explorers for the last 5 months. I sold that new position as a tax loss in December, and need to wait until mid January to get back in, because I do feel it has room to catch up. Even the last 2 days when many Silver & Gold explorers were up handsomely, Brixton was down, so it hasn’t been a pillar of strength, or even a good stock pick since last spring to summer. Let’s move on from Brixton, as you’ve got a large position in it an get all bent out of shape every time we discuss it.

My main point last summer in July and August was that the BPGDM reading was buried at 100 and historically that portends to frothy markets and big correction coming in the miners. You gave me a particularly hard time about it every time I posted on it, so I just quit discussing it, but that is why I was pulling profits in Jr miners last July & August, and was 100% correct in doing so, as that did mark the top in the miners for the last 5 months.

Clive Maund just made that point again in the article that was discussed on yesterday’s blog, but I was making that point as it was happen. “Real time” in Glen’s vernacular, and it was met with insults and dismissed by you and your charting.

https://goldseek.com/sites/default/files/inline-images/image-20210104071546-4.jpeg

Matthew – You rarely mention any of the points I get correct in our “interactions”, side-step any points I bring up that counter your thesis, won’t admit that you’ve been wrong on any points, and typically find ways to take jabs or get nasty out of anger, so I’ve tried to limit our interactions on here.

Today is another example. All I did was post data showing many royalty companies actually outperformed the GDX, and you had to take issue with it, be snarky in your responses, and said the data was all meaningless. Then you took it a step further, and implied you know better than me what I meant, and that my intention was to extrapolate that performance into the future; even though what I stated in responses (repeatedly) was just the opposite of that.

Once again, we’ll just have to agree to disagree, and we see things mostly the same, but very differently on a few issues. I always give you the latitude to have your own thesis, congratulate your work often, and don’t try to argue just for the sake of it. Please extend me the same professional curtesy, and don’t put words in my mouth, and we’d likely get along great, like we did for so many years on here.

There’s simply no getting through to you, Ex, so I won’t be reading either of your last two books here. That’s my honest assessment first and foremost, any insult is secondary. You do not get what you don’t get and engaging me because of my comment to Marty served no valuable purpose whatsoever despite your clear belief to the contrary.
Today and months ago, you have no idea how many times you’ve incorrectly addressed my problems with your positions and it will stay that way because it would wear me out to explain so many things that shouldn’t need further explanation. It’s not just your “understanding” of charts and it’s perplexing because you aren’t stupid.

FNV wasn’t in a bear market at all during the last 12 years and for good reasons. Likewise, it probably won’t be in one for much longer, at least not relative to the miners.
The smaller royalty plays stand a better chance of continuing higher but even they are out of sync. MTA vs SILJ, for example, looks like it will top soon.

As far as safety or investor appetites go, there’s always something for everyone in these markets.

I realize FNV wasn’t in a bear, during 2011 – 2015, but the Gold sector was across the board, and we’ve been comparing the miners to royalty companies. My point was the Gold/Silver Royalty companies like Franco, Royal, Wheaton, Osisko, did better during the PM bear market than the miners did, as a safer investment, since they still had good revenues coming in off their streams and NSRs regardless of the hardships the individual miners were facing.

I agree with you that in a bull market, that basket of royalties will underperform the individual miners.

As for the Mid-tier to smaller royalty companies (like Metalla, Maverix, Nomad, Abitibi, EMX, Ely, etc…) , they’ve been quite leveraged to rising metals prices, but their valuations have gotten a bit lofty, so I’d anticipate better appreciation in the Jr miners moving forward.

Personally, I still have a solid allocation to 9 royalty companies at present, because I’m not sure what potential pitfalls are in store for 2021 with all the monetary and geopolitical changes at hand, so I figure they’d likely pull back less during any corrective moves, while still gradually accumulating gains as the metals rise.

I was just over at stansberry…..to funny bitcoin $220,000 by Oct , Nov…

Not saying bitcoin at that number, just funny , we are all on the same pages…., and I was just going to post the video….

Yes, some of the calls higher in Bitcoin are getting pretty wild, but so were people calling for $5,000 , $10,000, or $20,000 Gold every year for over a decade now. I take all those calls with a grain of salt, and just consider…. so it sounds like there is room for it to run higher.

Nobody knows what the future holds, and Bitcoin is untethered to most other assets and is demonstrating the reaction of some investors to the increase in money supply. As Max & Daniela discussed, there are also plenty of momentum traders that just see a speculative asset going up and are piling in, without the monetary philosophical investment thesis, and that happens in everything from Apple and Tesla stock, to Cannabis companies, to Covid-19 vaccine stocks. Speculators will speculate… and hot money begets more hot money, until the bubble bursts.

I first looked at bitcoin in 2011/2012 and told my friends they were playing with fires and it seemed like a flash in the pan. Then in 2014/2015 I had another group of contacts urging me to get in, and I spent all my time warning them of the dangers (the power could go out, the internet could be taken away, it was just tulip mania, there was no intrinsic value, etc… etc…).

Then after learning more about the computing power and proof of work behind the cryptos, to validate transactions, I bit the bullet and got invested in Bitcoin & Ethereum miners in 2017; all while commenting at the time it was an irrational bubble and would end badly for many.

I made some money on the upside in 2016 and into 2017, and stayed invested a bit too long as the correction started in losing some money, but overall ended up with a small gain from the whole experience. Many of the BS companies got wiped out during the 2017- 2019 crypto correction, and there was a change in the kind of investors coming in by this year in 2020 – more institutional funds, more family funds, more billionaires, etc…

I almost bought into Bitcoin when it was in the $3K-$10K range on a few occasions, but was far more interested in sticking with the resource stocks. However, this year, after digesting about 50-60 hours of more information, reading a great deal, and learning more.

I mentioned a few different times on the KER from August to October layering into the (GBTC) Grayscale Bitcoin Trust in the $11-$13 range, when Bitcoin was in the $10K-$12K range and that I felt it looked primed to head higher, and potentially take out the prior 2017 high.

GBTC closed today at $39.41, and Bitcoin is about $33,600, so they’ve tripled in the last 4-5 months. I’m happy getting a triple in any asset class, and have now trimmed back a great deal of the profits in my GBTC position, but as I’ve stated a few times, my biggest regret was not getting more exposure to Ethereum and in particular the crypto miners. Many of them are up 5-20 times in the same time period, and like em’ or love em’ they’ve been insanely high returns for those that took the investment risk.

As for the future, it is unknown, but I’m a much bigger fan of decentralized cryptos than the new centralized digital currencies that banks and nations are about unleash on the world. Maybe they will go further than “taming Bitcoin” and may outright ban it, making it illegal. It’s unlikely that all countries in the world will make Bitcoin and the 100 other cryptos all illegal at the same moment though, so some form of money “outside the system” will persist, as the cat’s out of the bag at this point.

It just seemed like a good risk/reward set up to me a few months back, it was a nice return on capital invested, and if the cryptos get pummeled in a big correction in the months to come, I may add back to the position I’ve pulled profits on and get into a few of the crypto miners.

Regardless of someone’s position on it, there is no doubt it’s been an interesting development and phenomenon to follow since it was created post Great Financial Crisis and in particular the attention it garnered the last 3-4 years.

The madness of crowds will persist, and the cheese will keep moving, but some form of digital currency, and sideline to that, the blockchain technology is here to stay.

Ever Upward!

I think you are going to make some money on the bitcoin GBTC…, my wife says, no to me on the stocks….phyz only…. 🙂

Thanks OOTB, and yes I already have made good money on the GBTC trade.

As for your wife saying no to investing in the miners, and making you stick with the physical, you’ll sleep better at night as it is far less volatile. Besides…. “Happy wife = happy life.” 🙂

I’d point out that she didn’t say anything about not buying the ETFs…. (lol).

Maybe you could show her that GDXJ and SILJ are actually a basket of 50 stocks, so there isn’t the individual company risk, but you’ll still catch the outperformance of the miners over the metals. Just a thought…

Cheers!

Going on 50 yrs of marriage this year……so, they say only 7% can say that, ..so, I think I need to keep the boss happy….. 🙂

+50 Congratulations OOTB. Yes, that is becoming a rarity.

My lady and I just crossed the 21 year mark, and for some reason she still puts up with me and seems to enjoy my company. We’ll see how it goes… 😉

If, you made it past 7, and she is still happy, you are well on your way…..congrads…

+7 Thanks OOTB…. Das BOOT, or da Claw…. Contrarian’s Contrarian Frank…. CCF.

…. and Silver gets the early morning slap down back to $27.50…..

The sheeple , have given them the consent, out of stupidity…..

The sheeple are still wearing mask, ….required by the govt…..we did not give them the consent, ….the sheeple just rolled over…..

In 6 states the “rules” of the elections were modified by Governors and Secretaries of state. But the Constitution ONLY allows the rules to be created by the state LEGISLATURES, not Governors or others.
Thus in those 6 states improper (illegal) elections were held. If the elections are illegal, are the results valid ? NO. If the results are not valid, are those electors permitted to give elector votes, or can Pence reject them as being invalid. WHEN THOSE 6 ELECTORS’ VOTES ARE NOT COUNTED…..TRUMP WINS

People do not understand the constitution, and therefore lost…..they can not debate it, nor know it, …they depend on the corrupt govt leadership to tell them , what and how to think…..

+1

Today I put the Metalla proceeds into beefing up my Ely Gold Royalties position (as a smaller cap royalty play in Nevada further down the foodchain than MTA) and my Endeavour Silver position for leverage to rising Silver prices and their mine turn-arounds and lowering costs.

I did leave a tiny tracking position (15% of the initial position in MTA), which is something I sometimes do just to keep it as an allocated position in my portfolio, and as a base to build off if the setup changes over time.

Another interesting things about Endeavour Mining, is just recently broke above it’s 2016 high for the first time, and if it can take a run at the 2014 high of 6.21, then it should have a nice move higher until the trough from 2012 of the $7.70-$7.80 region. After that I moves towards double digits. So it may not move up as much as the smaller producers, developers, or explorers, but those funds in Metalla, were marked as more conservative, and that’s another reason I picked Ely and Endeavour.

I’d bet your hasty sale of MTA will prove to be a good thing. Yes, it might not fall right away or could even continue to rise, but the bargains in other plays would’ve disappeared had you waited, even on a relative basis because of their better technical pictures.

Thanks for the heads up OOTB.

Georgia Runoffs result will have this impact on gold – Peter Hug

Kitco News – Jan 5, 2021

“Whether the Democrats or Republicans take the two Senate seats in Georgia will determine how much stimulus the economy will get, said Peter Hug, global trading director of Kitco Metals. ”

https://youtu.be/DY0BWAEfjew

I liked what Peter said on the cycles……I am readjusting after the next run up…..next two or three years……

Yes, Peter is a sharp and rational guy, and I’ve always enjoyed getting his take on things.

Yes, they did,…..what a hoot, …..

HUGE…….lol,,,,,,

Yuge!

Not sure the sheeple , have figured out what just happened,….dems, for socialism , and perverted mind set….repubs rhinos, game as usual steal what you can, for as long as you can….

Got to run……have a great day……

Let’s get ready to tax the crap out of the sheeple, and then spend, spend, spend on social programs. Get out that pen for more stimulus, Green New Deals, and a few new states. Washington D.C. is up to bat first as a new state. Puerto Rico & Guam are on deck….

You have a great day as well sir.

Green new deal…….should be interesting for the other metals…

Reminds me of Jimmy Carter days…… lol

It may be a boon for some sectors like Green/Clean Energy (which has already had some nice moves recently in anticipation). As Thomas mentioned up in the blog, it may be a good time to look at adding more Battery Metals as well.

Or adding one of my ceo stock picks. Greenlane renewable. Was a big winner for me in 2020 and I see 2021 being no different

Next 4 years…….could see green machines, take off……..a lot of pork in those avenues…..just like before…..in the late 70’s
only one difference……DOE….

1850 …..I can live with that….. 🙂

Haha! Right back atcha man!

https://cdn-ceo-ca.s3.amazonaws.com/1fvbg6t-You%20Da%20Man.JPG

Hahah,

Thanks ex yes that’s the targets I see possible. Again nothing to worry about here just up and down up and down lol and once completed it’s going to be spectacular. I’m just glad I bought in at the lows as I was left out early in the previous intermediate cycle low. This time around got in with much better positioning.

All the best ex and Jerry

Let’s get through this and then forever up to the targets we have which are much higher.

Yes, positioning well, gives one more wiggle room during the chop.

My plan is to shop, if it drops, because I trimmed near a small top.

Ever Upward!

THANK YOU GENTLEMEN…………..Appreciate ALL THE GREAT EFFORT AND WORK, for Free of course…… You will be well rewarded……

Wimp……….and leadership come out early in life…….constrained by his nature when born, seldom changed….HOPE I AM WRONG…..Today, will decide IF HE GETS TO KEEP THE TRUMPSTER”S SUPPORTERS……REAL SIMPLE…
Understand he is leaving the country , immediately , after the counting…..

Great to have a group , of people to trust…….and appreciate……

Thanks Jerry 👊😁

🙂