Gold and the US Dollar are falling while commodities and Bitcoin are rising – Making sense of it all
Dave Erfle joins me for a later editorial today focusing on the moves gold, the US Dollar, base metals and commodities broadly, and Bitcoin. There’s no denying there is a risk on trade right now. We make sense of the key drivers and where certain markets are headed. Also note that gold is under performing gold stocks and silver.
Click here to visit Dave’s site to learn more about his newsletter.
It won’t hold!
Glen
If gold doesn’t hold right here (now), it’s going to be a big waterfall decline. Probably needed to keep the folks worried (I guess).
A big bounce is needed to keep away from the big trounce.
A ‘pivotal spot’.
Our big breakout-fakeout on the 5th failed after a two-day test of rising speed line resistance. It’s no wonder it reversed so hard after failing to plow through it on day 2:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=1&mn=7&dy=0&id=p84697762800&a=702521099
Ugly……..
Looks like Glen’s number is in sight…….$1781……….
GDX has retraced 61.8% of its huge move versus SPY:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3ASPY&p=W&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0&id=p89375667195&a=726869771
Interesting symmetry Matthew.
Back in 2003 when oil prices started rising, gold followed. I see the same happening now. Also, most senior Gold miners are also copper producers but stock prices not reflecting that fact.
If gold goes to the following intersection of speed line and fork support (arrow), it will have to dip below the 233 day MA by the same amount that it did at the March low:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=18&id=p15476893364&a=752776781
Whether it does so tomorrow or takes a few days, I expect to see significant relative strength in many miners with many not making new lows. Even today there were some positive divergences.
Most but not all senior miners are in green today albeit “barely in green” but when masses come to realization that how inexpensive they are relative price just a month ago, they will start nibbling them. Buffet has trim down his Barrick position (won’t be surprised if he completely unloaded) I still feel gold could move down in big Whoosh effect and touch $1772 level.
I agree about the whoosh effect and think it will happen by next Wednesday if it’s going happen at all.
If SILJ manages to regain the broken support that it is now struggling with, it might be sign that the downside for gold is more like 1790.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SILJ&p=D&yr=1&mn=3&dy=0&id=p93713537210&a=844957070
As it is, we have a support trifecta here with that blue fork support at about 1790:
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=11&dy=0&id=p71540415055&a=698853414
I deployed 1/2 of my capital yesterday buying more AEM, AGI. Keeping that other half when it forms a convincing swing.
Looks like a hanging chad chart
Gold bounced off $1800, I was hoping it would hold, and it did! Bonzai! DT