Well here we are, just a few bucks away from breaking the $1267 weekly swing low in $gold. If it does break, it means one of two things: we have an intermediate cycle that is going to end up being 40+ weeks long, or similar to 2013, the cyclists have catastrophically messed up their count and $gold is *just beginning* a massively left translated (a much lower low is coming) intermediate cycle.

If that pivot fails–and at this point there is every reason to believe it will–don’t let anyone tell you that the selling should abate in 5-7 days, like some cyclists currently are. They were claiming the exact same thing in 2013 and held onto their positions as $gold plunged because “we are too deep in the timing band for the intermediate cycle low to sell now–you should be buying”. That did not turn out very well as $gold plummeted for months.

I have held my miners for almost 4 years, and at this point I consider them to be nothing more than lottery tickets (aka long dated call options). But that being said, it will still end up causing a good bit of distress as I question the validity of my investment thesis (which thanks to the post-2013 action is already in tatters) in the days and weeks ahead.

The NWO (central banking) are still in the accumulation/theft phase and are continuing transfer of wealth and assets of the serfs.

It is so difficult to see any light in PMs. If the 1267 swing low in gold holds this week, it will be a flipping miracle. I would still be open to that marking the intermediate cycle low. The only variable that gives me serious pause is the CoT report from last week (although there should be a sizeable reduction in commercial shorts on this week’s report).

Another bearish factor is $XAU’s and GDXJ’s black candles from last week. I personally would like to see us close this week below last week’s close just so that those are cleared out.

If we were to reverse from here and close the week above last week’s close, I don’t think the subsequent rally will be sustainable long term at all.

If we can just manage to close the week out at current levels, that would be perfect, but what are the odds of that happening? We will probably end up either going down hard, or conversely, will rally a little further and then eventually make a lower low in the weeks or even months ahead.

Self fulfilling prophesy. Run the algos to drive direction and kick off other algos blowing stops. Regulators turn their back, oligarchies flourish, middle class wiped out and class system happens run by Fascist states. Been going on for years.

Yup, its a luvly life.

I wonder if that agenda 21 or 30 is a real thing, bring the population of the planet down to 500k?

We could see it if the yanks attack Iran.

I still think PMs drop until the end of the doldrums this year, if they continue to fall after that, well, ya shoulda bought bitcoin.

I have to stick by my call of $1267 marking the ICL. Gold has no business whatsoever breaking down here. The cloud support here on the week chart is extremely significant. And a 40+ week cycle is just too far outside the norm for me to believe.

That being said, this is just the probabilities. so take it FWIW.

Look at UUP. It is unbelievable.

gotta admit, the weekly Ichimoku clouds for silver miners look terrible longer term. AT BEST they suggest the miners will be rangebound between the recent high and where ever they bottom until late fall 2019.

Dead money at best, and at worst, they keep plunging a la 2013-2015. Now yes, since they have been destroyed the last few weeks, a 20-30% bear market rally is absolutely not out of the question. Whoo pee. Be my guest and step in front of this train wreck. But honestly, the top of that rally should probably (and will) be shorted like crazy.

GDX:SIL ratio looks like it is headed back to its 2010 all time high. Again, the fact that we took out the 2016 low bodes extremely ill in the longer term for the silver miners. The 2016 pop in the silver miners looks like nothing more than a spectacular sucker’s rally to reset sentiment, and it worked like an absolute charm. You would have to be an absolute moron to buy a silver miner over a gold miner at this point, regardless of how extended the ratio is at this point.

The GSR supports the exact same conclusion. This sector is most likely busted for years yet as the stock market soars.

I hope I am wrong about all of this, but that’s all it is–hope.

If you look at $spx:$xau, it looks even worse. The coup de grace for the miners will be when the 2016 peak is finally taken out, and it could be sooner than we think (within days to weeks).

Everything indicator is working in favor of US stocks and against miners right now.

$silver:$gold put in a black candle today. $silver is just sucking wind and this point. Just put it out of its misery already!

EXK hasn’t touched its 20 dma in 38 trading days. That is 2013esque.

IPT.V put in a black candle on the daily chart today. Down she goes.

Spanky, good comments—I appreciate the information you have put out in the past.

I hate to say this but the charts I’m watching tell me the odds are we take out that swing low. As I’ve said, I don’t see a cascading down but a slow dribble down at this point in time. I still believe we see that 1220-1250 level I’ve been talking about.

Gold has one to maybe six days of flatness until it makes the big move. I seriously doubt the move will be up. It’s going down in a strong way soon, and will hit 1220. After it breaks 1220, all bets are off. Next stop 1050. (And hopefully the last stop of downward action)