Time Frames For Gold, Silver, and Gold Stocks To Run Higher
This year might not get exciting, actually Doc thinks it will be pretty boring for the metals, but he says this year will be the best time to buy PM stocks. Doc shares his timetable for when a more sustainable uptrend could develop for gold, gold stocks, and silver.
Ira’s metals
I’ve learned not to doubt Doc… as depressing as that is 🙂
There’s good reason to doubt everyone. Doc was bearish at the September low just before GDX gained 35%. Those who bought into that fairly obvious seasonal low and just held are still up 18%. Four months ago (Jan 18), Doc was again bearish. GDX then went up over 15% and is still slightly higher today than it was then, despite the long decline we’ve been in. My point is that Doc is bearish at all lows, whether they are significant lows or not so it might not be wise to be too depressed.
Yes, gold will probably go lower from here but I have my doubts about it reaching the 50 quarter moving average again, which is currently @ $1221 (it was pierced in both Q3 and Q4 last year but held strong on a closing basis).
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p86794364557&a=646023230
He may not have nailed the gyrations, but his advice that this will be an absolute slog (going back years now) was dead on, in stark contrast to some people here who thought and continue to think that higher highs were, and are, imminent.
You’re absolutely right spanky. It’s more about time frame I think. Doc is taking a big picture view, like I think many people watching this space. Trading the swings is fine but for the vast majority of people the metals need a breakout to truly get interesting.
A 35% move for GDX over several months is more than a gyration in my book. Then there’s the once in a generation move of 2016 during which Doc was extremely wrong consistently. Every call he made was the opposite of what happened and he played the short side at a very bad time early in that move.
Cory, plenty of Doc’s calls have been about shorter time frames. The one on the chart above is one example.
All of this is fine but has be been “right all along” as he has claimed more than once? Not even close.
P.s.- He was also very bullish the sector immediately before the gold crash of 2013 so I think my advice to doubt everyone remains sound.
At the September low, I said that gold and the miners looked good but I also said the following:
On September 13, 2018 at 7:56 am,
Matthew says:
Will the next big sustained move get started now or will gold go up $70 to $100 before coming back to retest 1200?
The most popular scenario seems to be a bounce followed by a new low with the runner-up being a bounce followed by a retest of the low. So a sustained big move from here might be more likely than most think.
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That’s not exactly a “to the moon” call and the move has been bigger and more sustained than Doc and many others expected.
ira’s end of day
I have repeatedly pointed out in the past with the miners that once you get the 50 WMA to cross below the 100 WMA, it is only a matter of time before both MAs end up crossing below the 200 WMA.
On PAAS, the 50 WMA crossed below the 100 WMA in February of last year. That was a massive signal to sell. We are just now getting the 50 WMA crossing below the 200 WMA. Based on its current trajectory, the 100 WMA won’t cross below the 200 WMA until late July or early August. I wouldn’t bank on PAAS doing anything between now and then except make lower lows, or go sideways at absolute best.
so where will Platinum bottom out?
That is an excellent question. As bearish as I am in the very near term, even I can’t imagine the August 2018 low getting taken out. I don’t think it will be able to get to the lower weekly BB, currently at $776. If it does manage to get there in the next week or two, it will be pretty darn bearish for the medium and longer term.
Spanky and CFS; I believe the odds are platinum has much further to fall–I hate being depressing but the chart looks very vulnerable. In fact, I hope it does fall further since I’ll begin to buy the metal like I did palladium when it dropped years ago.
Doc, that’s great that you are hoping for lower prices. I personally like to buy things that are in bull trends. I would also like to enjoy healthy gains some time before I die.
Doc is always most bearish at the bottom
Thanks Doc……..