Reasons To Be Optimistic For Gold and Gold Stocks
David Erfle, Founder of The Junior Miner Junky joins me today to share the reasons he is optimistic for gold and gold stocks. He points to political tensions, recent backdated CoT reports, and some other markets, like the dollar moves which gold has shaken off.
Here’s something topical for anyone long commodities or short US stocks:
There goes my AXU. Back to reality. I will probably look back on this week and rue the day for not selling everything.
Powell wins.
With my luck, AXU will form a giant head and shoulders top over the next 2 months. It is almost destiny with the silver miners. blah.
OOPs……..are we seeing palladium going parabolic……Con Game…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-12/palladium-extends-bullish-streak-automakers-dump-diesel
“Palladium appears to be a two-tier market at present — investment demand in the OTC market has been very strong, whereas industrial demand has been weakening — there is evidence of this in the elevated premium of ingot (the investment form of the metal) over sponge (the industrial form),” Butler said.
Mitsubishi is forecasting an average palladium price of $1,150/oz in 2019, in a range of $1,050-$1,350/oz.
Industrial demand…..I think will win…..
On the day that it topped, I said it could easily go higher before correcting. As you can see on the chart, it pulled back but still hasn’t corrected. Some were saying that it had reached a major/long term high but it could be just an intermediate term high that’s setting up.
http://schrts.co/gJkaKTUR
Good call…….
On January 18, 2019 at 9:27 am,
Matthew says:
Palladium is currently higher than yesterday’s close and the daily and weekly RSI(14) readings are both still above 80 and even the very steep trend line of the last two weeks has not been broken yet.
The potential to move higher is still there until that trend line breaks and the RSIs go below 70.
The trend line has not been broken and the weekly RSI has not come close to going below 70.
It hasn’t even closed below the 20 day MA since Dec.21 – that’s a strong market.
http://schrts.co/IzYgHFFP
Industrial vs investment……….wondering minds want to know….
Both. It sure is not a monetary metal.
I should have said or asked,……
do you think the strong market for palladium is caused by industrial or investment demand.
Here is one for the industrial side…..demand…..shrinking if 7 million people behind on car payments…..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-02-13/debt-crisis-america-record-number-americans-are-behind-car-payments
According to CNBC, more than 7 million Americans are at least 90 days behind on their auto loans, according to the New York Fed. This is a major concern, considering the average car payment in the U.S. is now $523.
Both, as they are connected but mostly industrial. It could go far higher than we might expect.
Mufflers are going to be in over supply…….there is already a car glut, if you look on the auto lots , new and used……..Ford is having trouble with Trucks large and small
Matthew……..thanks for the reply……
I’m no palladium expert, but you’re welcome.
Supply is tight, too:
https://investingnews.com/daily/resource-investing/precious-metals-investing/palladium-investing/palladium-outlook/
Me either…..no expert……..
from the article
He added, “seasonal strength and momentum from the fourth quarter of 2018 should help keep prices strong in the first quarter of 2019.”
However, despite the gains that Savant sees palladium making in Q1 of next year, he does not think that they will be sustainable throughout the entire year thanks to a slowdown in demand.
“The US and Chinese auto markets, which are primarily gasoline engine markets and use palladium-intensive catalysts, are expected to slow in the coming year. Furthermore, demand from the electronics sector could also see a slowdown, with chip makers forecasting a slowdown in demand in the coming quarters,”
So………did the metal , just go parabolic……….looking at the chart from zerohedge article……..
The trend is clearly steepening but that doesn’t mean the move is over. The P&F chart price objective is $2,300 and it just might get there (eventually).
Thanks again…….seems like platinum would get some more attention, ……but, if , autos slide, …who knows………..
I guess , if I owned palladium , I would watch it like a hawk….. 🙂
Here is some info on metals…..showing 1980 highs compared with today…..
Start about 7:11 mark…….
Silver was $50, and is the only metal lower than 1980 high….and still way off …..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26AIReJniwc
You want to see a proper multiyear inverse head and shoulders, look at $USDJPY.
Once $USDJPY gets past 114, it will have a target of 125. Kiss commodities bye bye if that plays out.
spanky……I put the above movie in especially for you……check out silver….
I will check it out later tonight. thanks.
HL looks like toast to me. Absolutely hideous. It could be headed to $1.50.
If you turn the weekly GCC chart over the last 5 years upside down, it looks incredibly bullish.
Precious Metals Near Key Turning Point – Part I
by @Goldfinger on February 13, 2019
https://ceo.ca/@goldfinger/precious-metals-near-key-turning-point-part-i
Re: “Are we in a bullish cycle or a bearish cycle in gold mining stocks? …It’s a tricky situation and there is no clear answer.”
I don’t think it’s tricky at all. We are in a bullish cycle since the December 2015 low. There’s plenty of trickiness in this market but there is very little chance that the bear market low is not in place.
I agree. But things can get messy when the miners are trying to turn the 50 WMA back up. Once the 50 WMA is trending up, it will be obvious to everyone that the bull is here…
The HUI has found support just above the now rising 233 day EMA:
http://schrts.co/MNDzUGJx
Barrick has found support at the 233 day EMA:
http://schrts.co/qRRvVyqA
SLV has found support just above the bullishly converging 233 day MA and EMA:
http://schrts.co/FZxaUncb
The yen has broken down and it could be setting the Dow up for a continued massive bull run. On the flip side, commodities should be getting absolutely hammered in time. Gold may have peaked for the year. and silver, I just don’t know anymore.
That being said, in the very short run the yen is extremely oversold, so a little sideways to upward action is possible. but now that it has broken down, any and all strength is going to get sold hard.
At some point in the next year, yen and commodifies will probably be breaking down to new multiyear lows and the Dow will be breaking out to new multiyear highs.
Why would the Fed have any incentive to stop this??? The real wealth gained by holding US stocks and dollars is going through the roof.
Powell knew EXACTLY what the USD would do post FOMC. Sacrifice the dollar??? lol. Why? When the banksters are done repossessing all of the farms and mines in the world, they will let commodities rise.