Hour 1 – Treasuries, Metals, Central Banks, A Run On The USD
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
- Segment 1: Kicking off the show with Peter Boockvar. We discuss the lack of foreign buyers in US treasuries and how the issues in Turkey are only part of a bgger problem.
- Segment 2: Fund Manager Dana Lyons is paying attention to the metals but listen close to his short term outlook.
- Segment 3: Chris Martenson, Co-Founder of Peak Prosperity weighs in on the central bank intervention still present in the markets.
- Segment 4: We hear a lot about a possible run on the USD. Chris Temple has some comments worth paying attention to.
Segment 1
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Segment 2
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Segment 3
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Segment 4
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Skeena Resources drills 18 m of 13.8 g/t Au at Snip
2018-08-16 08:18 ET – News Release
Good article on the emerging markets and their dollar debts especially — and helps explain why, in any kind of new/renewed crisis, the dollar will SOAR for a while.
Thanks for the weekend show as always.
Much appreciated.
cheers.
Agreed. Thanks to Cory, Big Al, and all the KER contributors for a nother good weekend show.
Ever Upward!
a nother = another 😉
“Everything I see in the physical markets is very optimistic.”
– Eric Sprott -Weekly Wrap- Up, Aug 17, 2018
https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/everything-i-see-in-the-physical-markets-is-very-optimistic.html
Capitulation Begins in the Mining Complex
David Erfle – Friday August 17, 2018
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-08-17/Capitulation-Begins-in-the-Mining-Complex.html
Is Gold Still a Safe Haven? Let’s Talk Turkey…
Sean Brodrick – Friday August 17, 2018
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-08-14/Is-Gold-Still-a-Safe-Haven-Let-s-Talk-Turkey.html
Gold Needs The Plunge Protection Team
Todd ‘Bubba’ Horwitz – Thursday August 16, 2018
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-08-15/Gold-Needs-The-Plunge-Protection-Team.html
Gold Bounces: Another Fake-Out?
Peter Hug – Thursday August 16, 2018
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-08-16/Gold-Bounces-Another-Fake-Out.html
With Silver Tanking, How Badly Will Miners Hurt?
Allen Sykora – Thursday August 16, 2018
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-08-16/With-Silver-Tanking-How-Badly-Will-Miners-Hurt.html
“At Any Price”
Global Mining Observer – 201 (19.08.18)
“Inside an implausibly aggressive commodities trader: how an unknown mining company in an unmarked headquarters in Casablanca uses stockpiles and secrecy to trade its way through riots and revolutions, which the group has been accused of causing…”
Could Gold Be Finding Price Support?
Gary Wagner – Friday August 17, 2018
http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-08-17/Could-Gold-Be-Finding-Price-Support.html
I posted the wrong link to the Gary Wager article above, but actually wanted to post this one that has his weekend #VIDEO segment on Technical Analysis:
_______________________________________________
I mentioned early Thursday morning before the markets opened to be looking for the Doji candle as a potential signal that an intermediate turn or bottom could be forming. Granted, we only saw that on the daily thus far (forming a 3 River Morning Star pattern) , but if we see something like that form on the weekly on next week’s candle, then the turn is upon us (right in time for the seasonal rally from mid-August into September….. how convenient).
__________________________________________
> On August 16, 2018 at 5:00 am,
Excelsior says:
“It is hard to time the market turns, but TA can assist by watching for a series of indicators lining up (pricing, patterns, indicators, candlesticks etc…), and a general observation of a good probabilistic set up.”
“When we see these kind of big accelerated down days after a few months of gradual declines, then it is time to bunker down, but with the realization that this is what happens before the worm turns. Watching for exhaustion of sellers, and then a tug-o-war between bears/bulls that leads to an indecision period , where the pricing gets stuck for a few days or a succeeding Doji or Hammer weekly candle after this week’s ugly candle is behind us could be a clue we’ve found bottom for a tradable rally.”
_______________________________
> On August 16, 2018 at 5:48 pm,
Excelsior says:
“Yes, it will be interesting, but with the candles the typical ones that mark a turn are the Doji or Hammer candles. If we end up seeing one of those on a weekly then it would be a reasonable sound indicator of a turn.”
Ever Upward!
We saw it play out from Wed (long red candle), Thursday (doji) showing indecision, Friday (strong green candle back up).
If that kind of pattern ends up playing out over the next 2 weeks (because this week was a clear long red candle down), then it would be something to take note of for a turn in direction. We’ll see how it goes…..
Ira Epstein’s Metals #Video (8/17/2018)
Commodities, Technical Analysis, Gold, Silver, Copper, Platinum
Gold & Silve PRICE CRASH – August 15, 2018
iGold Advisor – Aug 15, 2018 #VIDEO #TechnicalAnalysis
A New or False Dawn for Gold?
David Brady, CFA (16/08/2018)
“The question now is, ‘Is this bounce sustainable or just another so-called dead cat bounce before falling to lower lows?’
Americans Are Spending Like Crazy at Restaurants
By Reade Pickert and Scott Lanman
Bloomberg Businessweek – August 17, 2018
“Spending at U.S. restaurants surged over the past three months by the most on record, making it both a bright spot for the economy and a risk if appetites for eating out return to normal. Sales at food-service and drinking establishments rose 1.3 percent in July to $61.6 billion, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday. That brought the three-month annualized gain to 25.3 percent, the fastest pace in figures going back to 1992.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-08-17/americans-are-spending-like-crazy-at-restaurants
Super Size Me
What happened to all the gold bugs here?
Moriarty said the dollar was used toilet paper. Really?
It will be the go to whenbthe Euro frys Not gold.
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/real_estate/real-estate-leverage-transition-to-the-reset/
Despite gold’s recent weakness, the dollar is still down 80% vs gold since 2001 and 99% since FDR.
Armstrong’s claim that it is now just a commodity is idiotic and contrary to the evidence.
Is he really so foolish or is his shilling part of a deal to get himself out of jail? Who knows, but there is no shortage of dummies who will confidently go with what he says.
+1
Wait, there’s more! Hasn’t Armstrong noticed the collapse in gold/silver bid-ask spreads since 2008? Prior to the turmoil of that year, silver’s spread was routinely 10 to 15 cents and sometimes 20. Today, it is routinely a single tick (half a cent).
DURING the 2008 turmoil, spreads came down significantly for the monetary metals (because they are MONETARY metals -DUH!) while base/industrial metals (like copper and platinum) saw their spread INCREASE massively. Despite making an all-time high in March, 2008 (well before the autumn collapse), gold still finished that year UP almost 6% vs the dollar.
Since then, gold and silver spreads have continued to tighten and both metals are more liquid today than they have ever been. In other words, both metals are more “money” now than they have ever been — the exact opposite of Armstrong’s claim.
CME Group says: COMEX Gold futures are priced in U.S. dollars per troy ounce and the minimum tick size is ten cents ($0.10). COMEX Silver futures are priced in U.S. cents[i] per troy ounce and the minimum tick size is half a cent ($0.005)[ii]. Figure 5 shows the Gold and Silver futures’ best bid/ask spreads and quantities by hour. The gold market exhibited tight bid/ask spread of one tick during almost all trading hours. The average bid/ask quantity was also robust; while it tends to be higher during U.S. peak hours, the average quantity during Asia hours is healthy, ranging from 15 to 24 lots, meaning that about 1,500-2,400 troy ounces (or 48-77 kg) of gold can be executed within one trade at 1 tick ($0.10) wide during Asia hours.
Like Gold Futures, bid/ask spread of Silver Futures is also tight at one tick wide most of the hours. Bid/ask quantity is at its highest during U.S. trading hours; nevertheless, it is still decent during Asia hours, ranging from 22 lots to 27 lots, meaning that about 110,000 – 135,000 troy ounces (or 3.5 – 4.3 tonnes) of silver can be executed within one trade at 1 tick (0.5 cent) wide during Asia hours.
https://www.cmegroup.com/education/liquidity-of-comex-gold-and-silver-is-excellent-during-asia-hours.html
Matthew – good points on the higher liquidity and tighter bid/ask spreads on Gold & Silver futures.
I will give a lot of credit to Martin Armstrong for brilliant marketing but I’m not sure those who worship at the altar of Martin Armstrong have long memories but here is a most memorable quote.
The link doesn’t ‘t work any longer for obvious reasons but it was correct then.
Martin Armstrong Dec 2011
This is a global MELTDOWN in sovereign debt and public debt at the municipal, state, and federal levels. UNDER NO CIRCUMSTANCES BUY LONG-TERM DEBT FROM ANY OF THESE PUBLIC LEVLES OF GOVERNMENT! You WILL lose everything you invest PERIOD.
There are those still putting out the nonsense that gold will collapse because the economy will turn-around…
Gold should back off and retest the support… We should see gold at $5,000 by the end of 2015.
Bill: Your ability to whine at bottoms is unmatched even by GATA and Bill Murphy.
link is still there under Writings 2010
Not whining. Laughing all the way to the bank. Ive never made more safe money then in the last 6 years. Retired before 50. Don’t too many people can make that claim.
Happy as hell to watch gold shares to collapse. Their the biggest con game there is and for gambling ONLY…And WHERE the hell is this bull market you been talking about for 5 years and you point at Armstrong?!! He gets a shit ton right and he exactly right about govs.
Bill uses KER like many use McDonalds–strictly for the bathrooms.
🙂
🙂 🙂
Good one. I just come by to check out the broken record. Im living life!
I find if I mention gold to someone, they instantly think I mean “sell all your assets and buy as much gold as you can”
I dont know why people think that way about gold but they sure seem to.
Bill, 5-10% of a persons INVESTaBLE income is a reasonable amount for gold for most people.
That leaves you 90-95% for real estate if your crazy enough to put that much into 1 asset.
But, as most people look at investments, gold sucks.
I actually dont care anymore if people understand it or not.
So,I’ll let a bug explain why a person might want gold.
If there are any still around. lol
I’ve had the same experience–explain the problems with the economy and people think you’re predicting Mad Max.
I’ve even been told that ‘if it gets to the point physical PMs are a good investment, it will be dangerous to have them, so no thanks.’
Not worth trying to make people understand. A few will show interest and can gain from shared info, the rest, no. A word to the wise is sufficient.
B, I’ll stick to my charts if you’ll stick to something you can handle — like breathing.
Mathew, your ability to show yourself a dipshit never ceases to entertain.
Was Robyn Williams lookin at you when he said he had never seen anyone in more need of a bj ?
At least your uninventive dirtball comebacks always match your intellect. No curve balls there! lol
lol whatadipshit.
Well, I certainly was too optimistic. I didn’t sell in May, but I did ‘go away’ and haven’t been paying much attention. Doh!
But I still am optimistic in the bigger picture, and agree with Ex, Moriarty, etc. about the capitulation event. I did state a few months back that it would be just like the precious metals sector if it got kicked in the gonies before starting up.
Credit where credit is due, a very good call on commodities from Spanky earlier this year:
The huge volume and extreme hammer candle suggest the selloff in commodities may well be at an end…but obviously I have a bullish bias.
I would also like to thank Spanky for giving us a rest from the daily heckling.
Spanky said he wanted to be woken up when silver hit $18.
Im sure he will come back with some good hecklin then.
Good hecklin?
I doubt it. The guy is about as entertaining as blackflies.
An acquired taste I suppose.
Yes, and an IQ as low as yours is required.
Never tire of dipshitty do you dipshit.
I like spanky and bird, I see you as the heckler.
I see you post unwarranted insults regularly and have for years, but thats what dipshits do.
You’re a scumbag brick that thoroughly earned every insult I’ve ever served you. It is frankly all you’ve ever earned around here. You’re a moron and that’s a fact, not an insult. “Honustly” lol.
Well stated GH.
Gold needed this capitulation event to search for a bottom and rally. It will time out well with the normal seasonal trends of a rally from mid-August into the month of September.
Also, yes agreed, nice to get a break from spanky’s daily dramatic over-the-top proclamations and heckling.
Good afternoon to all! Al hope this message finds you well. Thanks as always for a great site for all to share.
I will briefly say that I don’t care who is right and who is wrong regarding metals positions and future. What I do know is that at the current time I have found what I believe to be a significant bottoming process. This to me looks and smells like a perfect opportunity to buy. A sale perhaps and a beaten up sector. This to me is and was a bit and I have already accumulated some companies just this week. I’m expecting a move higher soon.
On a different note does anyone see another rate hike from bank of Canada for this year?
All the best to everyone.
Cheers Glenfidish!
I’m with ya lad, and have started adding to positions the end of last week, and intend to do so this week as well.
Ever Upward!
Thanks ex..
Hope your doing well.
Hi Glenfidish, read this article from The Financial Post, it should help shed some light on interest rate hikes. I believe they are going higher in the fall. DT
https://business.financialpost.com/news/economy/kevin-carmichael-remember-inflation-its-back-to-haunt-us
Good read Tracy…
Thank yoy
USDX:GOLD is overbought and at resistance:
http://schrts.co/jYt7iG
GDXJ:DIA weekly
http://schrts.co/L61Vkm
Gold line chart based on weekly closes:
http://schrts.co/gTTGtd
I could not ignore $14and change Ag at an 82 to 1 Au/Ag ratio.
It was more the ratio to Au than it was the relatively low pot price.
I will buy much more Ag if either of the above figures are breached evidencing cheaper Ag.
I also could not resist $64 FNV, $17 WPM and $76 RGLD all set to pay a modest quarterly.
I do not dare dive into SAND until their Turkey deep dive flushes out one way or the other.
Interesting charts Matthew. Thanks for the update. Thanks to the KER crew for the show!
(MAI) (MAIFF) Minera Alamos releases positive Preliminary Economic Assessment at La Fortuna
Aug 16, 2018 – Proactive Investors
“Minera Alamos (CVE:MAI) President Doug Ramshaw joined us in the Proactive Investors Vancouver studio to release the Preliminary Economic Assessment for the their La Fortuna project in Durango, Mexico.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zoUL0fMfLnk&feature=youtu.be
K92 Mining Releases Second Quarter Financial Results and Confirms 2018 Production Guidance
by @nasdaq on August 16, 2018
– Production of 10,485 gold ozs or 10,800 gold equivalent (AuEq) oz’s for the Quarter at a cost of $576/gold oz or $590/ gold equivalent oz and an all-in sustaining cost of $784/gold oz or $792/gold equivalent oz
– Revenue less Cost of Sales for the three months ended June 30, 2018, was US$6,453,063
– Reaffirms production guidance issuance for 2018 expected to be between 42,000 and 46,000 gold equivalent ozs
– Cash cost guidance for 2018 expected to be US$530 to US$560 per gold equivalent oz, with all-in sustaining costs expected to be US$720 to US$780 per gold equivalent oz
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/k92-mining-releases-second-quarter-financial-results
I increased my JAG stake about 20% yesterday.
http://schrts.co/7zqNUh
Nice. Yes, we were commenting yesterday on how the recent selloff in JAG seemed like it was overdone, and this is a good place to add a bit to the position.
I may add a bit more next week, but there are about 2 dozen stocks I’m looking at like that offer a good opportunity to top after this recent rout.
That should have said:
There are about 2 dozen stocks I’m looking at like that, (which now) offer a good opportunity to top (up) after this recent rout.
Interesting:
http://schrts.co/iZTcZZ
+ 1.618 Golden Ratio time….. High Phi-ve!
Hey that’s pretty good; take phive!
At the Bar with Brent Cook and Mickey Fulp
StockPulse – Aug 17, 2018 #Video Interview regardiong Explorers and Jr Miners
David Morgan: Crash Day in Silver and Gold
Palisade Radio – Aug 16, 2018
“David discusses the recent drop in silver and how it is another “spike low.” These massive down days are often very sudden quick drops. These “spikes” are a good entry and exit point if you’re looking to get into the market.”
“People don’t act consistently and keep to a simple strategy. He discusses what works for him in these markets and what he uses as indicators. He has bought this dip and will buy more if it drops again and expects a gradual price increase once the precious metals market gets moving and later on a price surge. ”
Hey Ex. Has anything changed with golden valley ie. share structure or % holdings in abitibi royalties that I have missed. It traded all the way down to .215 on Friday and Abitibi is still $9.75. That’s a huge discount no???
According to their May 2018 presentation GZZ Golden Valley, still owned 49.2% of RZZ Abitibit Royalities, plust their strategic stakes in (MZZ) Val-D’Or mining corp & International Prospect Ventures (IZZ) & Sirios (SOI) – where it also retains a NSR on top.
In addition to all those value drivers (GZZ) Golden Valley has their JVs with (AZX) Alexandria Minerals, (BAT.AX) Battery Mineral Resource, and (BTR) Bonterra Resources (who is in the process of taking over the small producer and explorer MTO Metanor resources).
Check out pages 7 – 8 of the Golden Valley Corporate Presentation for a breakdown of the different assets & percentages in their portfolio:
http://www.goldenvalleymines.com/investors/presentations/gzz-may2018-website.pdf
If you add up the market cap of RZZ and divide by 2, and then add in the strategic stakes in MZZ, IZZ, and SOI, and factor in some of the JVs with AZX, BAT.AX, and BTR, and lastly add in their other properties not currently optioned, then they should be valued at 2-3 times where they are now if metals stayed at the same prices they are now.
I agree the GZZ valuation is silly here, and that is why I am holding onto my shares and using it as one of a half-dozen profit dumpsters, when I trim winnings in other trades.
I’m also using (MMX) Maverix Metals as a profit dumpster these days….
https://www.maverixmetals.com/site/assets/files/3652/mmx_investor_presentation_august_2018.pdf
Thanks Ex. Been busy all summer so thought I might missed something. Maverix popped without me in June I think it was so I took the sour puss approach and stopped watching it. Lol
Yes, Maverix has been on a tear, (and rightly so as their royalty package is very impressive), but they are still undervalued relative to the big boys like Franco Nevada or Royal Gold etc….. I like what they have in their pipelines and their partners and see much more upside in them over the next few years as a result.
It is frustrating when a company launches while one is debating it, but sometimes these companies can just keep running as more and more investors wake up to their basket of NSRs.
Thanks Ex. Didn’t think I missed anything but Price made me wonder..I was following Maverix but missed the nice move back in June I believe..my bitterness gets the better of me once in a while so still haven’t bought it
Also for any of you still following t.usa.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/market-call-tonight/jaime-carrasco-s-past-picks~1461638
(SVM) Silvercorp Reports Q1 Net Income of $10.9 Million, $0.07 Per Share, Sales Up 14%, and Cash Flow From Operations Up 25%
by @nasdaq on August 9, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/silvercorp-reports-q1-net-income-of-109-million
Jordan Roy-Byrne and Mickey Fulp, Discuss Four Reasons why Gold has Declined
A lower weekly close for gold would not be nice at all…
http://schrts.co/Fc7TBF
GDX:MJ
tentative chart title: “Will Precious Metals S#!T or Get off the Pot?” 😉
oops, thats MJ:GDX…PMs have me a bit upside down
First time in a while that the comments on the first hour of the weekend show (Precious Metals focus) has outpaced the second hour of the weekend show (Politics focus). Is that bullish or bearish?
Maybe even the comments are getting a counter-trend rally 😉
Thanks for the show.