Big Picture – Safe Haven US Everything, Metals Under Pressure, Will The Fed React?
Chris Temple joins me this morning to recap the market moves to start the week and take a step back to look at the big picture. With the rest of the world’s markets struggling and money continuing to flow into the US will the Fed get in front of it or wait until international events bring the US markets down as well?
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China turning down….hit by tariffs?
Dollar index behavior is dominated by Europe….Semi-Meaningless, guys.
Ira’s morning TA.
https://youtu.be/F9Ht68GQwAk?t=32
Iamgold just announced a deal to acquire Columbus gold’s asset.
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3382567-columbus-gold-iamgold-enters-agreement-maripa-gold-project
Correction, Iamgold is selling 70% interest in a French Guyana project known as Maripa to Columbus Gold.
Northstar over at Goldtent posted the following gold chart this morning which would coincide with the seasonal low in gold:
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/08/Chart599Gold.png
Seems fairly consistent with Spock’s chart that Matthew posted a few days ago.
Off Topic:
Papadopoulos trial going like Flynn?
The Mueller investigation going….going….gone?
Platinum……..$800……….when was the last time platinum was this cheap……..
now……….$799
ss$PLAT
Was it Ackerman that was thinking deflation would take hold?
Meanwhile on the left-coast…
LA To Become First In US To Install Subway Body Scanners
By MICHAEL BALSAMO – Associated Press – 4 minutes ago
LOS ANGELES (AP) — Los Angeles is poised to have the first mass transit system in the U.S. with body scanners that screen passengers for weapons and explosives.
Officials from the Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority and the Transportation Security Administration will discuss the technology at a Tuesday morning news conference.
The scanners being deployed in Los Angeles project scanning waves to screen passengers at a distance. Officials say they can scan up to 2,000 passengers each hour.
The TSA has been working on the experimental devices, known as standoff explosive detection units, since 2004 with transit agencies. Until now, they hadn’t been deployed permanently at any transit hub.
The technology has also been tested in New York City.
Part of the scam……..
Think they are using the USD to try and get Erdogan into line or get rid of him.
I wish I were but half as eloquent….
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SQxBcQJE_e0
(I recommend 1.5 times speed)
USAS down to $2.24 after earnings. This around Docs proximate downside target of $2.25 and well below the weekly bollenger band around $2.05. Let’s hope that holds as there is a lot of air beneath $2.05.
It’s been 3 years since the miners looked so appealing relative to SPY…
http://schrts.co/d42ezX
Looks like a falling knife if I ever saw one. I realize this is probably the capitulation phase and it should be over soon, but it sure doesn’t feel good. USAS now down to 2.15. If it reversed from here into the close it would be one heck of a reversal candle.
In that XAU:SPY chart, I’d say the knife is now sticking in the floor but it is true that price extremes can extend quickly in a short time at the end of a long move (down or up). So you don’t bottom fish on margin unless you know what you are doing.
One thing that has always been true for me is that the very best time to buy is when we have a setup exactly like the one we have now.
For the more risk-averse, there’s nothing wrong with waiting for a clear reversal.
I know. I just wish I would have waited to buy. I have some free cash so I might take another bite in the morning. It seems to good to pass up with what is on the horizon for the stock from a fundamental perspective. I’ll sleep on it.
The volume bar today is quite impressive. The stock is closing half way up the bar from where it opened. RSI is still not oversold on the daily, but is very oversold on the weekly. CCI appears to be making somewhat of a higher low from mid July. I don’t really see anything else at this point pointing to a positive divergence.
No mention of LAC on here? That’s disappointing.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lithium-americas-announces-strategic-transaction-220000209.html
Hi Tom,
I don’t own any Lithium stocks, but I have always thought if I owned one Lithium Americas would be one of the first I would buy. Nice day today. I will probably watch it for a while. Thanks for pointing it out.
long SPPI
Wheres the floor in PMs? I thought 1200-1230 would hold but nup!
I am in the camp that it will hit 1124 eventually which is around the late 2016 bottom and per Ron Rosen post over at 321gold which I have reposted below.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/rosen/rosen081218.pdf
Whether there is a bounce before it gets there is up for debate. Others think 1180 might be the bottom which is based on the formation of right shoulder of a very large inverse head and shoulders pattern. Attached is Stewart Thomson’s chart included in his most recent post also over at 321gold.com:
http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/18aug/2018aug14gold1.png
There was likely a lot of stops set at the 1200 mark so it is only natural that it fell below the 1200 level in my opinion to trigger those stops. There are also a lot of people expecting the head and shoulders pattern to play out so my guess is there are a lot of stops around the 1180 which makes me believe those stops might be tempting targets to be taken out also.
My next two targets are 1180 (right shoulder of the large inverse head and shoulders pattern and then 1124 (the bottom at the end of 2016. Given we are still in the middle of August (still in summer doldrums) and already close to 1180, my bet is we will see 1124, but need to take one step at a time.
Geez, 1124, that is ugly! But by the look of all the red in PMs its certainly possible. Another wasted year for gold and co by the look of it. This doesnt bode well. The grind continues.
Side note: Gold is nearing its initial price when this bear started in earnest back in 2013: $1160. Silver at the same time was $18+. The white metal has given up alot of ground over the last few years. I suppose one could say gold is performing its duty as a store of value.
PMs stink bigtime…
When gold and silver turn though there will be no stopping them and it will be hard to get on the train after it leaves the station IMHO. The rubber band is getting really stretched so the snap back should be fun. I know others like Doc think it will be a rounded bottom, but given this dive in price, that is not my expectation.
Gap filled on GDX and hitting the 2016 lows right now just below $19. Slow Stokes is at 2.31 on the daily and 4.84 on the weekly. It hasn’t been that low on the weekly since the end of 2016. It seems like now would be a good time for at least a bounce.
thanks guys…….