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Separating The Signals From The Noise For Metals Prices

Cory
July 25, 2018

Metals investors constantly have a large number of “experts” throwing reasons at them for why the metals will be going up. Jordan Roy-Byrne and I discuss some of the recent comments on the SDR and how gold will benefit. We also look at some of the other noise in the sector that investors need to understand does not drive price.

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Discussion
25 Comments
    Jul 25, 2018 25:16 PM

    Great discussion. Especially on Rickard’s “noise”. People have to realize by now he is a very bright book marketer. I only bought one of his books on The Currency Wars. Donated it to the library the other day………Thrift stores are full of his books and many others which were famous for a few months because they were forecasting something that was going to happen. It never does and that’s why the books are available down the road………….

      Jul 25, 2018 25:32 PM

      Agreed on the Rickards comments. He is peddling a sale first and foremost. It is somewhat ironic that the very thing he says is on borrowed time (money) is the same thing he is chasing in droves. I have a couple of his books and they are informative and entertaining but like many others, his fear mongering does have a hidden agenda.

      Jul 25, 2018 25:28 PM

      One needs to only go back to late last year when Rickards was making the rounds boasting about how he had lunch with HR McMaster and other US officials and how there would be for sure a bombing campaign against Kim and North Korea.

      question : where is McMaster and that bombing campaign now?

      also…..the SDR is just a another fiat scam from the central bankers…..who besides the globalists wants that? Why would Russia and the Chinese want the globalists to regain power when they are starting to lose it.

      Rickards is nothing more than a braggart, name dropping book peddler. If you were the current administration the last guy you would want to disclose anything to is big-mouth Rickards. He doesn’t even have a big enough audience to sway that many people.

    Jul 25, 2018 25:52 PM

    One of your best TA guys

    GH
    Jul 25, 2018 25:14 PM
      GH
      Jul 25, 2018 25:14 PM

      no position

      GH
      Jul 25, 2018 25:15 PM

      The consistent downward trajectory of the chart must be due to price decay due to rolling over wheat futures contracts.

    GH
    Jul 25, 2018 25:21 PM

    SILJ

    http://schrts.co/Eb5ef2

    Again, I have no position in SILJ, but I am long the precious metals sector.

    GH
    Jul 25, 2018 25:33 PM

    Solar looks good. No position.

    http://schrts.co/boN9t7

    GH
    Jul 25, 2018 25:43 PM

    It seems premature to call an intermediate cycle low on the weekly chart, though it is possible. This may be no more than a bounce on the daily charts for now.

    http://schrts.co/W2ZP5f

    See FSLR and CSIQ

    Jul 25, 2018 25:10 PM

    China is now fielding professional baseball teams, the idea is to show Americans that baseball is no longer their sport, and neither is the dominance of foreign policy. DT

    Jul 25, 2018 25:37 PM

    Darn the Trump/Win agenda!
    Heh heh

    Jul 25, 2018 25:22 PM

    So there was big news in the Uranium sector this afternoon. I’m not sure if this has been posted anywhere today, but it should shake things up a bit:

    _____________________________________________________________

    Cameco reports second quarter results and its decision to suspend production at McArthur River and Key Lake for an indeterminate duration

    by @nasdaq on July 25, 2018

    “Our results reflect the impact of a weak uranium market and the deliberate actions we have taken driven by the goal of increasing long-term shareholder value,” said Tim Gitzel, Cameco’s president and CEO. “We continue to expect to generate strong cash flow this year as we draw down inventory and focus on operating efficiently. However, we have not seen the improvement needed in the uranium market to restart McArthur River and Key Lake.”

    “This means we will extend the suspension of production at McArthur River and Key Lake for an indeterminate duration. It was a difficult decision to make, because of the impact it will have on our employees, their families, and other stakeholders, but we must take this action to ensure the long-term sustainability of the company. We thank our workforce for their hard work and dedication.”

    https://ceo.ca/@nasdaq/cameco-reports-second-quarter-results-and-its-decision

      Jul 26, 2018 26:57 AM

      Tweets in response to the Cameco conference call from a portfolio manager:
      _______________________________________

      Scilliams

      ” $CCO conference call – Won’t produce while prices low. Won’t restart until can see long-term value. Leave Pounds in the Ground until value is recognized. Will take advantage of opportunities (Spot/Mid/LT demand) when present to fill contracts. #uranium ”

      5:08 AM – 26 Jul 2018

      https://twitter.com/scilliams/status/1022453709907750912

    CFS
    Jul 26, 2018 26:12 AM

    Facebook insider trades are interesting.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/25/facebook-earnings-q2-2018.html

    I don’t know why news channels don’t look at insider trades.
    Zuckerberg has been selling FB shares, prior to reporting of results.
    He sold approx quarter of a million shares on 7/23, 7/24 and 7/25 each day and raised about $160 million in cash. He obviously was dealing on insider knowledge!

    CFS
    Jul 26, 2018 26:16 AM
    Jul 26, 2018 26:41 AM

    (ZNX) ZincX Resources Provides Exploration Update at Akie

    @fscwire on July 24, 2018

    https://ceo.ca/@fscwire/zincx-resources-provides-exploration-update-at-akie

    Jul 26, 2018 26:04 PM

    5% gold allocation as “insurance” in the event of a monetary reset has always been Jim’s recommendation. He sometimes offers a gold “trade”, but he is clear that its only a trade. You could say Jim’s allocation recommendation indicates he is only 5% certain the crisis will occur even though his books and videos put that number closer to 99%…which sounds like a huge contradiction (and it might be).
    I still think he makes a good argument for 5%…or whatever your personal percentage is for “safe” assets.

      Jul 27, 2018 27:57 AM

      I think the percentage should be based on each investor’s situation. Some might need 30% while others might need 1% or none at all.
      I’ve never had any time for Rickards and still don’t, but I’m sure he’s not the worst gold commentator.