Big Picture Gold and Silver
Doc is back and we have a lot to talk about in the metals space. We look at silver and gold on weekly and monthly charts as well as the related stock ETFs. Key levels are noted and need to watched.
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Waiting for someone to chime in on how their penny stock miner is up 50% today.
You’re obviously upset that Skeeta not only had a 55% gainer on Friday (on huge volume), but that he finds your stress entertaining. You’re a typical clueless, jealous sheep bitching about things you don’t understand. Is a 50% gain in a penny stock beneath you? Is it preferable to join the herd in the bigger “safe” stuff so you can earn a dignified 3% while being a bag holder?
“bitching about things you don’t understand”
lol, ok Master Yoda.
There’s a reason you’re crying like a baby everyday and I’m not. Think about it, grasshopper.
No, I understand full well what is happening, and the potential pain it bears for a sustained period of time. Not everyone here is sitting on 10000% gains off of penny trash.
I’m just glad the spanky money hates penny stocks. When people like you hate AMZN and think the penny miners can only go up, we”ll have a top that will last for many years if not decades.
The irony is, you think just as zealously that AMZN is trash and your penny stocks can do no wrong.
I could just as easily say when you finally acknowledge that AMZN is headed much higher, it will be a sign of a historic top in the US stock market. Of course, because of your ego and inability to acknowledge that you are wrong, you will never ever admit that you screwed up. So I expect you to continue talking about how AMZN is overvalued until it is $10,000+ per share.
Wrong again, but we’re used to it.
Wrong about what? That IPT hasn’t hit 0 yet? Ok, you got me on that, but there is still plenty of time. We are just a couple of giant candles away from taking out that December low that you keep crowing about, something that IPT is more than capable of doing.
Spanky,
I took my initial position off the table + a profit.
I now have a speculative position left in a high risk / high reward stock in a high risk Sovereign area.
Monday it moved further up just a tad, today it held firm despite the spit price of gold moving down.
I couldn’t give two $h!ts now if it went to zero as it owes me nothing, but I will trim FURTHER profits if it climbs.
You whine louder than a French helicopter.
Cheers.
Good for you. Keep bragging about gains on a penny stock—as if that is any better than whining (which I don’t think I am doing at all—I am merely pointing out how bearish the setup in metals is over the next 6 months).
Doc, while you were gone I lost control and bought PSLV@5.62 last Fri, and bought CAH@48.8 at today’s opening. As a doctor what do you think of CAH? Thanks.
BB; CAH looks like deadmeat for awhile. It might bounce at 45 but then over time go even lower. The chart looks awful. I would wait for a trading range at a lower level. PSLV wants to go lower and say “hello” to 5.25.
Thanks, Doc. Did you go fishing in the KIngdom of the Saguenay? Or did you go to Florida or Mexico to catch a blue marlin?
Spanky, not everyone.
Thursday, COMEX
Dang, AG may close below $6 this week. I know in Matthews book a 30% drop in a couple of weeks, below all key daily and weekly MAs, is ultrabullish….
In Matthew’s book, you’re a lowlife.
Did I say something false?
You’re too stupid to know that you did?
My god you are an egomaniac.
Still waiting for an acknowledgment from you that you have been, and are, wrong. I’m going to guess it is never ever going to come.
You’re still waiting because you’re to scared to pay attention. I said months ago that I was too bullish in December from a timing standpoint. I am still very bullish longer term and was absolutely right to back up the truck on IPT while you talked it down.
Bottom line, I am up very nicely since December, overall.
Doc, if gold and silver break down below 1200 and 15, what would your down side targets be in the near term for gold and silver before it is time to back up the truck?
Back up the truck? lol. Wow, old habits die hard.
After seeing sentiment like that, despite the slaughter in gold, pretty much guarantees its going much lower, for much longer than anyone here dreams.
bird-spanky-b…………or….spanky-b-bird.!!!!!!!!!!!!!
HaHa….i dont know !!!!!!!!
I know what you mean, Tony, but spanky isn’t half as bad as bird. I would bet a lot of money that the two are different people!
WTF Is Going On? Andrew Maguire Now Says A Swiss Bank Just Refused To Hand Over Client’s Physical Gold
It’s happened again. Just two weeks ago King World News reported that a German bank refused to return a client’s 1/2 tonne of gold. Here we are just two weeks later and London whistleblower Andrew Maguire just told KWN that now a Swiss Bank just refused to return a client’s gold the bank was supposedly storing for the client.
Every analysis I have run over the years shows an inverse correlation with the dollar, to some extent; depending on the time period chosen.
As you would expect the correlation tends to diminish for shorter (< week) time periods.
But there have been long periods of time when the inverse relationship was up to 90% correlation.
I always assume those periods relate to times when the dollar and precious metals are moving in the direction desired by the manipulators, and when the correlation is low, I assume the manipulation is high.
Doc, if the support levels in the PMs get broke to the downside, is it time to bail out?
Ted Butler talking about JPM’s silver position.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-23/ted-butler-new-hope-higher-silver-prices
Rough day for MONT on their permitting complication. Down – 50%
___________________________________________________________
(MONT) Miramont Provides Cerro Hermoso Update
“Miramont Resources Corp. announces that the Peruvian Ministry of Energy and Mines (MEM) has determined that the Company is not eligible for an automatic approval of its drilling permit as it is possible that exploration drilling may affect indigenous communities.”
https://ceo.ca/@newsfile/miramont-provides-cerro-hermoso-update
Current economic landscape does not appear favourable for sustained PMs price growth. I wonder when the black swans fly in?
Dollar strength or weakness will play a factor, as will if the FED decides to postpone rate hikes, and the 10 year treasuries action. Personally, I expect more dollar weakness to play out, and see this latest move up to 95 as a counter-trend rally inside of a more bearish longer term pattern.
Regardless, moving into mid August – September is a seasonally strong period for the metals and miners, and Gold typically dips down to lows in July. It’s the same most year with investors getting bummed in the Summer Doldrums, which exhausts sellers and builds the base for the next rally.
I am with you on the dollar and it seems to be weakening today. Impact Silver has a very strong looking engulfing bullish candle today (ISVLF does at least) on heavy volume if it holds up. The miners are somewhat of a mixed bag still, but things seems to be turning slowly positive from what I am seeing. With Comex options expiration Thursday and COT data ending today it should be an interesting finish to the week.
Charles, I’m glad you brought up Kootenay Silver recenty; I picked up quite a bit since then and wouldn’t have without the reminder that it exists.
It looks like I might have nailed a long term low.
Thanks!
Glad you got in. Now I can benefit from your charting! : )
It is a crystal clear buy to me!
http://schrts.co/qoro5L
Weekly:
http://schrts.co/Pk4TDE
Thanks. Nice volume increase today on the reversal. There is certainly a lot of RSI space on the weekly for it to advance nicely. You might to also want to check out First Mining (FFMGF). It appear to double bottom around the 30 cent level and is screaming higher today on heavy volume.
Thanks, that is also a crystal clear buy.
http://schrts.co/Ku6h2X
FFMGF
http://schrts.co/dWLEuK
I was hoping that is what you would say.
Matthew that is good to hear, as I have a nice horde of Kootenay and have posted updates from them fairly regularly, but it seems few have woken up to this one yet.
I feel the same way about AbraPlata.
Ever Upward!
I think the low is in place for the yen (and gold) but it could still pullback from here…
http://schrts.co/qCMU8s
The yen is a short on any strength. It’s just backtesting the neckline of the H&S currently.
I expect yen to roll over at the 50 or 200 dma.
It’s also possible that yen rallies for some time along the diagonal neckline. But it’s not breaking through IMO.
$indu:gld new multiyear high today. Confirmed breakout.
Gold might rally for a month soon, but I think it rolls over hard into the new year after the dead cat bounce. I don’t think it will even get past the 100 WMA but if it does it might tag the 50 WMA before reversing. Buy it in December/January at much much lower prices IMO.
Meanwhile, Dow:XAU is overbought…
http://schrts.co/bnu7sw
The miners are where the action will be, not gold.
You keep saying that but gdx:gld long term chart actually looks worse than than the gdx chart, because it has already made a low below the dec 2017 low. I don’t get the crowing about how well gdx has done relative to gold when all it is done is make lower highs and a lower low on the weekly chart. Big deal, it has positively diverged from gld for a few weeks by merely staying flat while gold tanked. What a victory.
That is nonsense. The miners look superb vs gold long term. You need a remedial chart course asap.
Yep, I don’t know what lower highs and a lower low look like on the GDX:GLD weekly chart.
By any basic rules of charting, that is what is called a “downtrend.”
Good luck spanky.
Expect EXK to get back down to the 2.70 region where it should complete the head on a H&S top. Thereafter, it will rally with silver to form a right shoulder over 6-8 weeks before breaking down. I expect it to be hitting new multiyear lows at the end of the year.
To me Rambus’ TIP/TLT chart measuring inflation or deflation says it all. Whichever way it ultimately breaks will determine gold’s fate. It’s a toss up at this point.
Aside from the short term, I don’t see much of his suspense.
Why should the USD drop when the Fed is tightening relative the BoJ and ECB?
Because it is in a larger downtrend pattern that started a year ago and will last several more years.
Other countries are losing confidence in the ability for the US to ever pay back it’s debts, and the trade wars aren’t winning friends and influencing people in a positive way.
That is the question. Will they really continue to hike? Every time they hike they risk crashing the economy and the multinational corps (the corporate cabal that really runs the country) gets more and more squeezed the higher the dollar goes. The Donald knows they are treading on very thin ice and with each crank of the screw more interest cost to the government impinges on descretionary spending and pinches the consumer who is loaded to the gills with variable rate debt. The Fed will either crash the economy and start printing money again like crazy or will back off on interest rate hikes over fear they will crash the economy. Either way gold and the miners will eventually benefit. If the Fed crashes the economy first, it will be bad for gold and the miners short term until the Fed starts printing money like crazy to try to right the ship. However, it will likely be too late at that point. They are balancing on the head of a pin any any move they make at this point will be impactful to the economy and ultimately gold. That is how I see it.
The hikes/tightening (QT), which started in 2015 iirc. have done nothing but drive the US stock market to massive NATHs. Not only that, but when measured against the commodity complex, their REAL (as opposed to nominal) value is also and NATHs. The Fed tightening also just draws ever more foreign capital to the US. How is that a bad thing?
Nope, it is going to take a G7 nation dropping out of Bretton Woods II to do the job, and none of them have the balls to do it since the elites in those respective countries are growing more powerful by the day. The only way Bretton Woods II breaks down is if there is a violent revolution in one of those major countries, and that isn’t happening any time soon.
The gloves and veil came off in 2008. “Never again” the CB elites muttered. The level of open collusion and control in the markets by CBs has never been higher.
“Trump finding a foe in his own Fed head, Jerome Powell, would be dreadful for Asian economies, companies and investors. The spectre of the most powerful leader brawling with the world’s top monetary authority throws yet another imponderable at a region on the ropes.”
“That puts Powell in an impossible situation. Hiking interest rates at the forthcoming policy meeting from July 31 to August 1 could have Trump slamming the Fed on Twitter. Throttling back could increase overheating risks. Either outcome risks denting the dollar’s credibility and driving up US bond yields.”
Spanky you are entitled to your opinion. Just keep in mind, if they continue to hike at some point they will succeed in crashing the economy. We are not in some fairy tale virtuous cycle where the market only goes in one direction. Given the market signals ( fundamentals) are screwed up by all the money printing, no one really knows what that point will be, but I expect there will start to be really consequences soon to their tightening action. I also believe that if they crash the economy, they are likely to close the market for periods of time. There is precedent in the past for this and given the credit bubbles that have been created I expect closing the market as fairly likely. Therefore, I am accumulating now knowing that gold/silver and the miners might continue to be hit, but there might also come a time where you can’t get in the miners. It is not a sure thing that it will happen, but it is certainly within the realm of possibilities. Given the risk reward proposition with miners I am a buyer. People are grossly underestimating risk in the market. The extremely narrow breadth concentrated in the FANG stocks is screaming caution. If you are buying FANG stocks at this point you are thowing caution to the wind. But that is my opinion having spent 30 plus years working in the credit markets. You are entitled to your opinion. I am not always right on timing, but I have rarely been wrong in identifying risk when I see it.
Credit risk? What does that mean? lol. Seriously, the Fed and US govt assumed ALL credit risk in 2008. All of it.
So yes, there is currency risk sure, I guess. But when you have the BoJ and ECB doing your bidding, they can keep that game going for a long, long, long time.
The CBs have very incentive to drive commodity/input costs into the ground. The reason is, it spurs real growth (real in the sense of adjusted for inflation). Also, the CBs love it when miners and other commodity producers go bankrupt or stop producing. Afterall, their assets aren’t going anywhere–they will literally survive and have value forever. And the banks can just scoop up these assets for pennies on the dollar when they default and can resume production at their leisure.
There is absolutely nothing irrational about people piling into FANGS. As credit tightens, these companies will grow ever more powerful, as they can take over encumbered assets for pennies on the dollar and have gargantuan warchests to do whatever they want. They will buyback shares until their floats are reduced to 1 share.
Whatever dude. I don’t dispute the FANGs can’t continue to rise and some people might find it suitable to invest in them under the arguments that you make. I am simply not a momentum investor. I used to be, but if you play in that space long enough you get burned. I would rather buy stuff that has had the snot beat out of it and play the revision to the mean game. I am a hard assets investor for better or worse. To each his own.
By no means am I saying you wouldn’t be prudent dollar cost averaging into physical gold with the ill-gotten gains from AMZN or GOOG. But speculating in the metals after what has transpired post 2008 is an entirely different story and is just asking for it.
So why do YOU keep asking for it? By not selling, you’re proving that you don’t believe your own bs.
I refuse to partake in an immoral system that is literally no better than looting. What I have in the miners, while representing my savings, isn’t exactly a large amount of money currently by most standards. Whether I keep what I have currently, or it goes to zero, is going to make exactly ZERO difference for the remainder of my life.
Looks like the Trumpster is going to fight the fed. Interesting.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-24/trump-announces-multibillion-stimulus-farmers
Hep Spanky don t waste your time…Gold could drop $500 and silver $10 and these losers will still say WOW WHAT A GREAT BUY…..no matter how much they are underwater…….permagoldbugs…bunch of idiots as far as I am concerned
Reo, you are the single greatest loser this site has ever had when it comes to being a contrary indicator. It is always a bullish sign when you show up.
It’s true, the metals and miner could bounce soon. Afterall nothing goes down in a straight line, right?
The onus is on the bulls though. We aren’t really asking for much evidence. A higher high in silver and the HUI would be a tremendous first step. I know, I know, that is an extreme request and the train might leave the station.
So you’re the “everyone and their mother” you were talking about just yesterday! To be exact: “Everyone and their mother expecting a bounce here.”
What a fool.
you are clearly lashing out. Look at the freaking trends over the last 2 years. Lower lows, and lower highs across the whole complex. Go ahead and keep accumulating and masterfully trading on the long side all the way down for all I care. GL to you.
You’re pretty sensitive if you think pointing out your obvious contradictions is lashing out.
I don’t have a single concern about this market so there’s no reason to lash out.
There’s a big difference between price and time you idiot, and I didn’t state one way or the other what I meant in my earlier posts by “here” or “soon”. For all you know soon could’ve meant 3 weeks from now or tomorrow. So for you to call it a contradiction is stupid. You have been wrong for two years. and will continue to be wrong all the way down. But you will keep pointing to the fact that the 2016 low is in tact, and thus, so is the bull. Congrats! Cya later.
Now that’s lashing out, lol.
You can spew all the bs you want but everyone here knows what you meant when you made that comment and that It was motivated by the pathetic spanky fear that we all expect and know so well.
Well, as I predicted, $hui getting slammed today. If it closes below, 170 it will have cleared out all of the black candles on the daily chart.
Everyone and their mother expecting a bounce here. That means gold will probably drop even more.
As far as I am concerned. the weekly chart is wrecked and gold will be a great short if it manages to tag its 50 WMA again.