The Bullish And Bearish Case For Gold
Raghee Horner, Futures and Currency Expert at Simpler Trading shares her thoughts on the factor that drive gold. We look at some of the current bearish scenarios as well as some bullish scenarios that she sees playing out into next year.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Each new high for the dollar (UUP) is happening on less strength. That is not a good sign for the bulls but it is also not a guarantee that the dollar is about to fall…
The battle in gold right now is for the 600 week moving average — currently about 1223.5
http://schrts.co/gG17Cm
This chart shows the significance of that MA much better:
http://schrts.co/kNtA2s
The last weekly close below that MA happened in 2003.
Matt:
The DSI for gold and silver is 7 and 92 for the Dollar Index. That’s enough for a turn.
Thanks, that sure fits with the way it looks to me.
GOLD and Silver is REAL ! Electronic Money is Freak Money no real insane freak on Phone’s to be Eaten from Corporations intel DEAD !Luk Diss ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4UnA7H-QjbE
Electronic Money is Freak Money!!
You’re coming dead SLAVES of Electronic Money ! ( I Know you will no see AGAIN !!! ) ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YIzuF6nfe7o
High-Altitude Balloons To Deliver Internet Access In Kenya
Associated Press – 23 minutes ago
In this photo provided by Loon LLC, a balloon launches from Loon’s launch site Winnemucca, Nev. Loon, the internet-delivering-balloon unit of Google-parent Alphabet, is announcing its first commercial deal. The company says it will work with partner Telkom Kenya to deliver 4G/LTE cellular access to Kenya in 2019. (Loon LLC via AP)
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif. (AP) — A Google-affiliated company has chosen Kenya as the home of its first announced commercial deal for delivering internet access to hard-to-reach areas using high-altitude balloons.
Loon, which is linked to Google through parent company Alphabet Inc., says it will work with Telkom Kenya to deliver 4G/LTE cellular access to Kenya in 2019.
The balloons will be tested in central Kenya, which has been difficult to service due to mountainous or inaccessible terrain. The high-altitude balloons have already been deployed in emergencies in Peru and Puerto Rico, where they helped regions devastated by floods and hurricanes.
Billions of people on Earth still aren’t connected to the internet. They tend to live in the poorest places with the least infrastructure to support it.
Since Google first launched the project in 2013, its goal has been to connect everyone on the planet. While getting more people connected fits with Google’s ambitions of making information “universally accessible and useful,” it also increases the number of people who can use Google’s ad-supported services.
The announcement comes just a week after Loon graduated from Alphabet’s secretive “moonshot factory” known as X. That means it’s considered a full-fledged company beside sibling companies including Google and self-driving car developer Waymo.
“We’re excited to take a big step forward for our business and mission,” Loon CEO Alastair Westgarth, said in a Medium post .
Westgarth says Alphabet marks a significant milestone in a journey that began in 2013 when a New Zealand sheep farmer became one of the first to connect with Loon test balloons.
Facebook has also been trying to deliver the internet via solar-powered drones. Last year, it completed a test flight above Arizona, after an earlier flight resulted in a crash. But just last month, Facebook announced it would stop making its own aircraft and would support other high-altitude connections.
Oh, these trying times for those who invest in real things, especially gold. Perhaps the following short post from Jesse Felder will make some readers feel a bit better. It did me! https://thefelderreport.com/2018/07/19/what-the-buy-and-hold-cult-doesnt-want-you-to-know/
That article is not correct. It says that gold’s long-term (20-year) performance still crushes that of the broad stock market. Actually the total U.S. stock market and gold have done about the same as far as performance (total return) for the last 20 years.
Thanks but I’ll take Jesse’s comments over your visualizer. No one knows what inputs went into the stats that pop up. Each to his own I guess.
+1
Well you are quite welcome Silverdollar but unfortunately Jesse Felder’s chart is wrong. He said that gold’s long-term (20-year) performance crushes that of the broad stock market and shows a chart. That chart does not show the performance of the broad stock market at all. It just shows the price only gains and not the performance (total return) gains. He fails to take into account dividends which are a part of the performance or total return. This is usually done to deceive people into thinking that the return of gold is so much more better than stocks when it is really not quite so. He also uses the SP500 which is not the same as the broad stock market. The total U.S. stock market as measured by the Wilshire 5000 is usually considered the broad stock market and has averaged about .50% more per year than the SP500. Yes, gold still beat the broad stock market during those 20 years but it did not crush it like that chart shows. Of course if you looked at a 20 year time frame that began a year earlier, say the beginning of 1997, then you would have seen a much different result that would be in favor of stocks. So overall the performance of stocks and gold over the long-term has really been about the same. BTW, I have 40% of my financial assets in physical precious metals and 10% in GDX. The rest is in cash. So obviously I am not anti-gold or pro-conventional stock market.
+1 Excellent post.
Sorry, Jesse Felder is NOT wrong.
From June, 1998 to June, 2018, the S&P 500 returned 256.592% with dividends reinvested. At 328%, gold easily wins. In addition, buying and holding gold is easy to do in the real world while matching the stock market’s returns with you own stocks is not — at least not for most people. Resisting the urge to trade (and hold individual stocks) is hard when one has an online discount brokerage account and when most people do trade, they completely screw things up. That’s a fact.
If we start the contest in March, 2001 (an obvious top for stocks), the total return for the S&P 500 is 222% (226% at the all-time high in January) while gold is up 375% (650% at the obvious top in 2011).
Stocks began a long bear market versus gold in 1999 after the Dow peaked at 44 ounces of gold. It trades at just 20 ounces today but reached 6 ounces in 2011.
Matthew,
I really am saying that Jesse Felder’s chart is wrong. It wrongly shows the performance of stocks without including dividends which makes the performance of gold look vastly much more better than stocks than what it really is. I did admit that gold did beat stocks in that specific 20 year period but that gold really did not “crush” stocks as the chart wrongly shows. Your statement that gold easily wins is certainly a much more accurate description. And the broad total stock market did better than the SP500 return of 256%. Once you include dividends and use the correct broad stock index, something like the Wilshire 5000, the performance of gold compared to stocks in that 20 year period is no where near as bad as that chart shows. And you would buy a stock index fund, which was and is available to people since 1976, and not buy individual stocks to try to match the return of the stock market. I do think we agree in general about the importance of precious metals and I surely can see that there have been long time periods where gold did outperform stocks and vice versa.
Based on dividends reinvested over the last ten years (151% for S&P and 179% for Wilshire), I would guesstimate that the Wilshire would be about 300% (vs 256% for S&P) for the last 20 years — still behind gold.
Correct Matthew. Somewhere close to 300% but short of gold’s 328%. Thanks for posting your charts and sharing your thoughts on the markets btw.
You’re welcome, JMiller.
Never fear — The Donald himself started the counter offensive against “Da boyz” of the cartel today!!! Instead of firing Mueller as he should have long ago, maybe he’ll tell Jay Powell “You’re fired!” and bring back The Bernank to run the Fed. Next Q.E. programs he’ll add another zero.
Have to hand it to Trump, he runs a tight ship. One slip up and you are usually out. Powell hasn’t listened to Trump’s repeated requests for a lower dollar. He could be on the chopping block here
I read somewhere awhile ago that the average bear market in gold runs for 4 years whilst the average bull market is 7 years. For those who believe that gold remains in a bear market, that would add upto 6 years for the current bear.
I suppose the question is: When will this bear die?
Interesting move down in the dollar. Gold and silver are catching a bid. Today should be interesting. On Rick Ackerman’s blog he said he would become “mildly bullish” with a gold close today over 1,245.80.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-20/dollar-tumbles-below-trump-dump-lows-stocks-fade
Looks like all those negative divergences matter:
It ran into trouble where it should have but further weakness today would be nice…
Agreed. We just need trump to open his mouth a little wider and that should do the trick!
Sign of a bull market in copper…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sKGtb1t9iVw
A real jewel. Thanks.
Canadian dollar:
http://schrts.co/xKZd5t
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HlHvaaoUbE4 IRA’S M0RNING