Ben Hunt On The Unparalleled Power Of Narrative In The Financial Markets
Our good friend Jesse Felder has a great website as well as podcast. Since a lot of our guests are out of pocket today I figured I should give Jesse’s podcast a spotlight on our site. Below is his recent podcast and while it is over an hour long take some time and listen to it when you have a chance.
Click here to visit Jesse’s site for more valuable commentary that I think you will enjoy.
From Jesse’s site…
W. Ben Hunt, Ph.D. looks at the financial markets through a truly unique lens. With an extensive background in political science, game theory and history, Ben came to the financial markets relatively late in life. But it’s precisely this wandering path to the world of investing that gives him rare insight into what drives asset prices and how these forces change over time. In this conversation we discuss how investors as a group play the “common knowledge game” and how Ben views these trends through what he terms a “narrative machine.” Ben also shares his views towards the current trends of rising inflationary pressures, the backlash against big tech and much more. You can find Ben’s work at EpsilonTheory.com and follow him on Twitter @EpsilonTheory. Below are a few notes and links related to this episode:
- Learn more about the “common knowledge game” by reading Ben’s Sheep Logic at EpsilonTheory.com
- Learn more about The Narrative Machine at EpsilonTheory.com
- Other must reads include Icarus Moment, Three-Body Problem and Too Clever By Half
- Tao Jones Averages by Bennett W. Goodspeed
- The Ants by E. O. Wilson
URANIUM:
Interview with Scott Melbye the Pres. of UEC and former Pres. of Cameco’s global arm. Good tidbits from an industry expert (e.g. Cameco is highly likely to put McArthur River mine on care & maintenance, which would be a very big deal)
http://themikealkinshow.curzioresearch.libsynpro.com/website/lets-talk-uranium-again-ep-20
Thanks for sharing the UEC interview Jay T.
Between the Kazakh cuts, the Cameco cuts and potential of putting McArthur River on care & maintenance, (as well as them buying in the spot market), and Paladin’s mines in bankruptcy and scaling back expected production, there should be some positive effect on Uranium prices.
Also US producers like Energy Fuels, Ur-Energy, and Peninsula Energy, along with near term producers like UEC, Anfield Energy, and Western Uranium may get an extra boost if the DOE acts on Trumps suggestion for the US to source a certain percentage of Uranium from domestic companies.
It’s been a long wait, but the Uranium market may finally be poised for an ascent back out of the basement.
France’s EDF, GE to co-build reactors for huge Indian nuclear plant
By Rachita Prasad, ET Bureau|Jun 26, 2018
THE MIKE ALKIN SHOW: TALKING STOCKS OVER A BEER
The Tide is About to Turn for Uranium Investors (Ep. 20)
S3 E1: Sitting Down with Secretary Perry
JUNE 20, 2018
https://www.energy.gov/podcasts/direct-current-energygov-podcast/s3-e1-sitting-down-secretary-perry
Is It Time to Get Into Uranium?
Maurice Jackson of Proven and Probable explores the prospects for investment in uranium with Mickey Fulp, the Mercenary Geologist.
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2018/06/20/is-it-time-to-get-into-uranium.html
TD Uranium Weekly, June 20,2018
“Ninth reactor restarts in Japan.”
https://www.docdroid.net/j3V0dYE/td-uranium-weekly-june-202018.pdf
Sorry I was reposting this Mike A podcast and the title was different so I didn’t realize they were the same show 🙂
U.S. nuclear, coal plant bailout plan still being ‘fleshed out’: Perry
Reuters – JUNE 15, 2018
Good comment from John Q., on a large volume of shares traded in Energy Fuels and UEC that would coincide with the amounts needed for URA to finish its dastardly rebalance. I’ve been waiting for the selling due to the rebalance to work it’s way through, so this is good news if it is why that large volume was traded.
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John Quakes
“Looking at trades data for $UUUU & $UEC shows both had single enormous block trade: 5.9M shares for $UUUU, 2M shares for $UEC. By my tabulations, those are very close to amounts Global X #Uranium ETF $URA needed to sell for rebalance. Very likely those 2 names now done!”
https://twitter.com/quakes99/status/1010284673065369600?s=21
Ross says decision on uranium 232 probe will come ‘very quickly’
June 20, 2018
(The Commerce Department will “very shortly” decide whether to open a Section 232 investigation into the national security ramifications of uranium imports, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said on Wednesday. Appearing before the Senate Finance Committee to discuss the administration’s use of Section 232, Ross was asked by Sen. Mike Enzi (R-WY) whether a petition requesting the probe , which was submitted by two U.S. companies to Commerce in January, would be acted on.”
(the 2 companies that petitioned for Section 232 were UUUU and URG)
Link for above quote: ^^
https://insidetrade.com/trade/ross-says-decision-uranium-232-probe-will-come-very-quickly
Thanks! Well worth listening to.
Copper hits nearly three-month low on U.S.-China trade tension
Jun. 25, 2018
“There is “concern globally about what trade wars mean for metals,” says Nitesh Shah, director of research at WisdomTree. “Over the last couple of weeks or so, people have been thinking of the impact as a very negative thing for industrial metals.”
“Traders are betting that the likelihood of a negotiated solution that avoids tariffs has become more distant, potentially hurting global growth and damping demand for industrial metals such as copper: China consumes ~50% of the world’s copper.”
https://seekingalpha.com/news/3366089-copper-hits-nearly-three-month-low-u-s-china-trade-tension
Oil up today fairly strongly and well above $70. Good for my oil and gas producers and should help kick up inflation if sustained. Seems like it will be as long as Iran and Venezuela production remains on the sidelines. Seems like the US is helping the Saudi’s get their Aramco deal done.
Avi Gilburt’s view regarding GLD:
“Currently, we have almost reached those support levels to which we were pointing weeks ago. For those that have read my metals analysis over the last few months, you would know that my perspective has been that, as long as GLD holds the 119 support region, we still have a very powerful rally setup in place. And, as long as GLD holds that 119 region as support, the market still retains a set up to rally strongly towards the 150 region in 2018. It would take a break down below 117.40 to invalidate that immediate setup, but a sustained break down below 119 would begin to get me concerned.”
GLD trading at $118.85 currently with a low of $118.59. It will be interesting to see how it closes. Remember, tomorrow is a full moon which has often coincided with major reversals in gold.
speaking of a powerful narrative moving the markets….
When an exploration company hits pay-dirt, then people’s eyes widen and their brain’s kick in doing math to determine just how big the resource could grow.
We saw this last year about a dozen times where an exciting new release spiked the value of shares for months afterwards.
…. and we just saw this “narrative” play out again today on Tinka’s killer drill release.
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(TK) (TKRFF) Tinka drills 10.4 metres grading 44.0% zinc in new discovery of exceptional zinc grade at Ayawilca
@newswire on June 26, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/tinka-drills-104-metres-grading-440-zinc-in-new