I guess that depends on what we call short term. For some, it could be two days, for others, two weeks or even two months. If we settle on weeks, not days or months, there’s been no net damage. In fact, the bullish case is strengthened by this shakeout as are the odds that the next move up might start sooner rather than later.

I misstated that. There’s obviously also no damage if we’re looking months out.

Yes, agree, a few weeks of choppy sideways to down action isn’t a big deal, and months out things are still looking quite bullish I still believe we have a chance at taking out the $1377.50 high from 2016 later this year in the September surge.

http://schrts.co/ZT17PV

Nice chart.

Well that’s the difference between those who understand the charts and those who think they understand the charts. The more you know, the more you’ll trust them.

We’ve had to be patient since 2016, but the significance of the action that year has not been diminished one bit. I won’t mention any names, but even some chartist newsletter writers don’t grasp this fact.

Significant resistance at 70 cents:
http://schrts.co/qjwprX

Matthew – I’d completely agree that:

“We’ve had to be patient since 2016, but the significance of the action that year has not been diminished one bit.”

I’ve read a number of editorials and heard a number of interviews from the recent resource investing shows and even here on the KER where pundits have dismissed that move in 2016 as nothing more than a “dead cat bounce” or a “relief rally” but those comments are wrong on many levels technically.

First of all, a “dead cat bounce” or “relief rally” is when an equity is still in a cyclical bear market and bounces, but will resume the downtrend; and that is clearly NOT what happened in Gold as it has never gotten anywhere close to the $1045.40 low from December 2015 in 2 and 1/2 years. In fact, some pundits seem to have amnesia that in 2018 the high in Gold actually already took out the 2017 high, so Gold is much closer to making new highs if anything.

When Gold surged for the first 8 months of 2016 it took out a number of prior peaks & the 2013 spike down trough that really accelerated the bear market, and those hadn’t been cleared in years. That makes 2016 an “impulse leg” higher because it took out the prior most recent peaks, (but actually took out about 3 of them).

Next up, Gold pricing surged up through a number of key prior moving averages (233, 144, 89) day EMAs, that it hadn’t in years. This was also true on the weekly charts. Also the EMAs In addition, the EMAs reverted back to the shorter on top and the longer on the bottom, where in the bear market the shorter were on the bottom and the longer were on top. Those were 2 more key clues that the bear market had truly end in the metal in Dec 2015. Relief rallies don’t do that.

Lastly, 2016 broke down most of the normal seasonality trends in an outside year where the metals continued rallying through the PDAC curse in March, and then powering through the remainder of Spring and into the Summer Doldrums to new highs. Very unusual and strong action. Finally, Gold had gotten too far ahead of itself and corrected back down during late Aug – Oct (a time that is typically a strong seasonal period for Gold). That move up for the 8 months into August showed how strong the energy being released was and was yet another tell that this was not just a fluke or a relief rally.

Pundits that are now dismissing the move up in 2016 as some kind of novelty, or just a nice little bounce don’t seem to understand the gravity of that move up, the overhead resistance that was sliced through like a hot knife through butter, and how that definitively ended the bear market once and for good.

Gold has been in a new bull market since the tail end of Dec 2015 and has been making higher lows ever since. Unless Gold takes out $1238 to the downside then even that trend upwards has not been negated either.

http://schrts.co/wkPR7B

Silvercorp & First Majestic & Excellon & Hochschild are also increasing their Zinc & Lead production and it is having a positive effect on their economics as well.

There is no point in hording the Lead or Zinc for another time, as both have higher prices than they’ve had in years, and now is the time to get the base metals produced before Glencore kicks up more mines, and some of the other development stage Zinc companies come online over the next 2-3 years.

Most companies would be wise to save much of their Silver reserves for when the prices are a few bucks higher, and that will do wonders for revenues, free cash flow, and the longer term game.

However, they are just about to start drilling again for the 2018 Exploration program, and if they hit a few nice holes (like they did the last 2 years) in Q3 then that may move it higher before the Q4 production decision.

I am also pretty excited to see how Alexco’s neighbors – Metallic Minerals (MMG) does this season, as they had some good hits last year, and they’ve got a solid drill program lined up for 2018.

The MMG strategy is to either feed their ore to Alexco’s mill at Keno Hill, or look at partnering with a major to develop their own stand alone mill and processing center if they can prove up enough reserves. This will be a very exciting year in the Keno Hill Silver District for both companies.

Yup, I did say that the traction was deserved.

I should say that Hunt takes the cake over the last 6 months, but clearly over the last year, Maya Gold & Silver blew away all the Jr Silver producers. I was involved with it for some of that time, but elected to sell earlier on because I had ethics issues with how they dealt with the Mercury and Arsenic in their their tailings and old stockpiles and didn’t like the potential environmental risk, so it stings to see just how well it has performed. Still, I said when I sold it I expected it to do well, but I didn’t want to be associated with it for personal reasons (no matter how well it may do).

It looks to me like only 3 companies should be on that graph.

Those 6 are all Jr Silver producers.

I guess I could have also added Great Panther but they are almost a mid-tier now.

Golden Arrow is JV’d with a major on their production, so it didn’t seem like a fair comparison.

GoGold is producing, but from tailings only, so I didn’t include them.

There are no more Jr Silver producers that I’m aware of, as the rest like Excellon, Fortuna, Sierra Metals, Hochschild, Americas Silver, and Silvercorp are really Mid-Tiers as this point, and the rest are Majors.

Looking at the weekly charts of those three, IPT is the easy choice for new buying right now while MYA rates a “no thanks.”

I was talking performance, Ex. The last three performed roughly in line with the sector.

Yeah, I agree with that, and included them as a frame of reference against other Jr Silver producer, as Excellon, Bayhorse, and Avino absolutely trended sideways to down with most of the Silver miners and ETFs.

Only Impact, Hunt, and Maya bucked the trend.

First Majestic has done well since the 2017 Dec bottom on the FOMC rate hike, especially for a much larger company.

http://www.stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IPT.V,HMX.V,MYA.V,FR.TO&p=4&O=011000

Of the Advanced Explorers in the Silver space, that will be moving into Development next…… I really like Dolly Varden, Silvercrest, Defiance, and Klondike Silver.

For the Silver Explorers with a bit more to prove, I like Metallic Minerals, Orex Minerals, Brixton, Bitteroot, Southern Silver, New Pacific, Bunker Hill, Bitterroot, Silver Bull, Golden Goliath, and Santana Minerals.

Garibaldi is doing that same thing in the Nickel space, and the SolGold / Cornerstone Capital resources story is doing that in the Copper space, and Fireweed Zinc has done that in the Zinc space.

The question remains, which company will really get investors excited about the Silver sector again?

Honestly I like many of the Silver stocks best and is why I own so many of them, because they allow investors leverage to Gold & Gold miners, and they still participate in the Zinc/Lead/Copper/Gold sectors depending the polymetallic makeup from company to company.

The Silver miners are unloved overall, but this too shall pass….. they day is coming.

They = Their 🙂

Yes I am rooting for Quinton too. I think it is going to work out long term, but there will be many ups and downs. I took some off the table early in the rally so I am pretty much playing with house money currently. I got in to Auryn a bit late and so I’m negative right now, but I like the management team and their portfolio of exploration properties. Have Goldcorp involved is a nice plus too.

Yes, always wise to trim some of the winnings. Admittedly I trimmed too much on the double & 250% gain on Novo and underestimated just how high that one would run and expected the buzz to die down quicker than it did. Also, over time the shear size of that conglomerate package in the Pilbara being basin-wide has really tickled the imaginations of PM investors, so it makes sense in retrospect.

Yes, Auryn has a very capable team and one of the biggest Majors in the gold sector, so longer term, they’ll do very well.

Good luck to you in your investments!

Last month I got back into Novo for a brief swing-trade, and it felt good to be back in, but then then I sold again, not knowing if there was more to the correction post bulk sample news digestion. I’m considering staking out a small position in it again if it pulls back a bit more. I hold a small position in Kairos Minerals for a speculative punt as well.

Thanks for the great comparison. It sounds like UEC might fit my style better. The raise both sound like good choices subject to valuation and technical analysis.

Yes, both are great picks in the Uranium sector, have enough volume and liquidity for the charts and trading, and both will win big when the Uranium rebounds.

The bottom was the double bottom in Uranium spot at $17-$18 in late 2016 and fall of 2017, and while there have been a few fits and starts rallies since then, most of the gains were given up just as fast, so the sector is still trying to get some legs to run on.

Ever Upward!