The International Safe Have Play Of US Stocks, USD, and PMs
The markets yesterday were fascinating. US markets up (especially tech), USD had a big move up, while precious metals also put in some gain lead by silver. Chris Vermeulen, Chief Investment Strategist over at TheTechnicalTraders.com shares his thought on an over safe haven play from international investors. The PMs along with all things US moving higher, or at least holding gains, in the face of a more hawkish Fed. This could also be a reason for metals stocks to be muted. We discuss it all.
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I don’t think anyone has a clue where gold is headed.
For me, the bull looks vulnerable. The 200 WMA is about to cross below the 600 WMA. The 300 WMA is curving down and has stopped gold in its tracks for now.
In the short run, absolutely gold could bounce any week now as it is technically oversold here.
I am at least willing to acknowledge that the Austrians got it completely wrong, at least in our lifetimes.
Spanky, the gold chart clearly showed a short term risk of what we are seeing today. It doesn’t matter that it is taking place after the Fed day and not before.
On June 8, 2018 at 10:31 am,
Matthew says:
It wouldn’t surprise me if gold gets hit one more time before the Fed meeting next week. If it does, the CoT data would likely improve significantly.
GCC is breaking down hard now. I would expect the Ichimoku cloud on the weekly chart to lend support soon, but a swing low could still be weeks away. The miners aren’t going anywhere until GCC bottoms. I personally think the Fed, ECB and BOJ would love to see GCC retest its 2016 lows in due course.
Look at the $CRB 40 or 50 year chart. Nothing like 2012-2015 has been seen in that timeframe. Look how far we are still away from the 600 WMA. Commodities are going to be basing out for years and years yet. The bankers did an absolute number on commodities in those few years–that after *quadrupling* the Fed’s balance sheet. It doesn’t get any more perfect than that. What a sheer display of absolute power.
Your comment is depressing me.
This shakeout looks a lot like the ones JAG and BBB recently had as each took out their prior low before reversing. I think it’s a good thing.
I agree, shakeouts in the context of perfectly aligned MAs are good things. But we don’t have any of that in gold. Gold looks absolutely nothing like 2000-2011. It looks more like one of the sucker’s rallies between 1980-1999 TBH.
This shakeout was exactly what doctor ordered. Sentiment was way too bullish reading articles about silver-gold ratio, cup-handle blah blah. Looking at the $HUI chart, I won’t be surprised if it takes out March lows – that will give ZERo sentiments on metals. I think that will be the time to load up the truck. Moriarty is right, NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING. Ignore the gurus and stick with tools that have worked for you. Having said that, we have rising months ahead of us as far as metals are concerned. So the risk is being outside than in it (Wink ) Matthew
There’s more to it than perfectly aligned MAs but you’re right, gold is in a different place than it was last decade.
CaliJoe, my remark had nothing to do with short term noise. I thought that was obvious.
And I still have over 60% of yesterday’s paper gain — not counting yesterday’s booked gains.
Looking at today’s dramatic drop in Silver, I bought DSLV. I think the slide will continue for a few more days.
Send gold to $1000. Washout everyone. hell, send it to $500. too many bulls still. Hell, you will never kill Matthew, so just take gold negative and be done with it.
The bottom line is, in bull markets (real bull markets, not suckers rallies like the mid-1990s, surprises come to the upside, not the downside, and long term moving averages are respected for long long periods of time.
Take it easy there, spanky. Gold is still higher than it was the last time I was so bullish. A major low is in the works right now (going lower tomorrow does not negate that claim!)
Spanky, PM’s are the cash cows for Banks. They whipsaw both sides to make money. Nothing unusual of these moves.. I’m watching $HUI to gauge the sentiments in miners I don’t find anything wrong with metals.
Oh I know what the bankers do. But to call the miners bullish right now is ludicrous. The 50 WMA should have never dropped below the 100 WMA if it was in a real bull trend. And even then, if price stayed above the 100 WMA after that cross, that would have been a good sign. As of now, the miners are short on any touch of the 100 WMA.. Once the 50 and 100 WMAs cross back below the 200 WMA, you can start trying to pick a bottom IMO. Regardless of what other say, the bias is to the downside over the next year. Again, we could rally back to the 100 WMA, but will be shorted mercilessly at that now downward sloping MA.
I will count my current bullishness wrong if gold takes more than a few days to bottom or takes out the 1265 area on a weekly close.
It should be pointed out that gold could fall much further for much longer without harming the bullish big picture.
This goes well with that gold chart:
http://www.usagold.com/publications/fedfundsexreservesratesLG.png
Eh whatever man. Silver is cooked for a while. Wherever it hits bottom, it won’t be rocketing up anytime soon. It will be a slow grind higher at best for years. There is now way in hell the triangle in SLV holds up without at least a false breakdown to beat out the last few idiots longs the sector.
Gold’s bullish weekly picture is in serious jeopardy IMO. The 100 WMA is arcing down now. That is never ever a bullish sign.
On June 11, 2018 at 1:14 pm,
Matthew says:
Gold will probably get hit but “pummeled” is a little dramatic.
Don’t be surprised if silver and the miners diverge bullishly if it does drop.
Today, silver is down over 4% while SIL is down 2.2% and even “risky” SILJ is down just 3.15%. Gold and GDX are down 1.9% while GDXJ is down 1.4%.
These are unequivocally positive divergences.
Btw, spanky, do you think your fear and hand-wringing rates more than a “whatever” to me? lol
one day does not a trend make. GDX;GLD is topping out on the weekly timeframe. Stopped right at the upper bollinger band on the weekly chart. Stochastichs are overbought. 50 WMA below the now downward sloping 100 WMA. Both those MAs are likely headed back below the 200 WMA in due course. You are hoping for an absolute miracle to think otherwise IMO. The chart was actually wrecked last year, but I was too delusional to get out. As with the mining indexes, the 200 WMA is still sloping downwards. You are seriously dreaming to think we don’t have serious downside risk and for an extended period of time.
Tell yourself that when we get a down day, spanky. One day does not a trend make.
I didn’t say anything about a trend did I? SIL is down 2.25% when it should be down 12%. THAT is positive whether it lasts or not. That’s what we have TODAY and your crystal ball is clearly broken.
Guys:
Every June/July we get a low and nice tradable market. I have been saying for weeks we need to weed out the permabulls. The DSI needs to go below 10 and no doubt it will today. the bottom is near and spanky continues to give his bullish signal.
Yes Robert, you have indeed been calling for the DSI below 10 and I bet it is closer to 5 now.
Those who can’t buy days like this also can’t sell spikes to the upside.
Whoop dee doo. A tradeable bottom in a market that is headed sideways to down. What about going long a real bull market?
A “tradeable low” is exiting to traders spanky.
Historically we get a good bounce in july(sometimes real good) then move down in aug.
Its an opportunity to sell and rebuy for some people.
As I said, I think what your looking for begins when we hit a low for aug.
PMs=Joke
Washing machine
178:1 Comex toilet paper
Nasty looking shooting star on the SLV weekly chart. There is going to be some follow through for sure for at least a week or two or three.
As I have been saying, the SLV weekly Ichimoku cloud told you everything you needed to know about SLV’s trading range through october.
GLD’s 200 WMA is curving slightly down now. Bullish!
There is a gap on the GLD chart at 119.50 that needs to be filled. Fun times.
The machines have control over the charts…..better check with your Iphone to see who you can call for relief…………..LOL
Here are some suggested readings for your weekend or summer vacation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcHRaxN-u5U
OOTB, RT interviews a left-wing professor, to spread propaganda.
Funny how “killing American citizens by drone is condemned (As it should be), but that was an Obama program.
Funny how Operation Phoenix is condemned (as it partly should be, but that was authorized by LBJ. (Hardly a conservative!)
RT uses part truth to in its propaganda; always a good way to propagandize, when the general public is less and less capable of critical thinking or simply was poorly educated.
I was more interested in the back ground, since, this was an old tape……
More particularly , the back ground of the CIA….bringing more of the poorly educated people up to date. CIA continues there operations, and they will continue their operations, until the majority get a handle on what is going on….but, I think I am beating a dead horse.
Poorly educated, …just continue in stupidity…..Bread and Circus for the masses, …
Which you pointed out , in your ROME TAPE….the sheeple are to interested in watching their sports to be worried about the CIA.
Ira’s morning:
Guess I posted in the wrong spot, “does a $20 drop count as lower gold”?
Just wondering as matty was ridiculing spanky and I yesterday.
Its all perspective tho, or so I hear.
Im gonna guess, just for fun, overall up in july, gold hit going into aug and then up and away with standard up and downs on the way.
Relative I know, but much higher in december than we are now. Thats my guess.
Now that I posted that I jinxed it and we are guaranteed to be under $1000 by the end of dec.
Who knows. As I mentioned above, the CRB got absolutely decimated between 2012-2015. The “low” in 2016 and the action to date could have been nothing more than a pause as the very long term MAs like the 600 WMA catch down to price. By no means is that low the mark of a new bull market. It could have just been a suckers rally in very long term bear market/basing pattern (like out to 2030).
Your comment is depressing me.
Well it is reality. *Nothing* since 2011 makes a lick of sense. But here we are. The Fed is engaged in QT now and has been raising rates for 2 years straight. And yet the Nasdaq is making new all time highs every day and the mining stocks and gold and silver do nothing.
The CRB is at the same level it was in the 1970s. Let that sink in. If you have been long commodities vs US stocks since the late 1970s you have been absolutely destroyed in terms of real purchasing power.
It’s true, 2016 may have marked “the” low in commodities. But even if they get the occasional significant rally, they have huge headwinds to face for years to come. there is no secular or cyclical bull market by any sane measure currently. After a massive spike from 1970 to 1980, commodities did nothing for 20 years. There is absolutely no reason to think they won’t do the same thing after the MASSIVE spike down from 2012.
Add to all the technical damage, the big 3 Central Banks have absolutely no interest in seeing commodities rise because they know it will destroy any semblance of real growth. Nearly all credit created since 2008 has been stuffed into US stocks. The largest corporations are the only entities that can actually tap the low interest rates on offer by the Fed. Companies like apple, amazon, google are literally raping the economy, as they are the only companies with access to ultra easy money. It’s a self perpetuating feedback loop at this point now. Why should any investor take a risk on a small start up company when they get a guaranteed, massive return via the aforementioned companies? I could go into more detail as to how the big tech companies have basically gutted the US patent system too, shifting the balance of power strongly towards themselves and away from the small inventor (the backbone of American ingenuity and progress).
You’re too much little b. Do you really think today is a big surprise to me? Better yet, do you think today’s action is really some kind of victory for you two?
Damn it’s tiresome dealing with the clueless!
Arrogance, Matty, I never said you were surprised, how could I? You know everything.
fyi, Matty, there really is no victory.
Maybe you figure being buried with more toys than people you know is a win?
To itch his own.
Frustration can look a lot like arrogance so you get a pass for that one.
Your getting frustrated?
Dont worry, PMs will come back in time.
Altho I dont know why you would get frustrated, you make loads of coin trading,
you woulda made 10 times as much had you gone to pot tho.
I can see that being frustrating for you.
No, b, the frustration is with you, the clueless. I knew you’d screw even that up. smfh!
I havnt “screwed” anything up maty, I do think you are in dire need of a ……….
If I wasnt repeatedly correct, there is no way you would get frustrated by me.
but ya just cant keep from anticipating every word I post can ya? lol
Told ya, relax, PMs will move up.
Unless they are totally crushed for all time that is.
Nope, it’s purely your comprehension problem and you just put it on display again – Canada’s schools or just bad luck in the genes department?
You should stick to trading, I think Ive mentioned that a time or two.
Relax matty, PMs will move, eventually.
You mention lots of worthless shit more than a time or two, little b.
*Relaxing* 😉
Worthless to you matty, try expanding your horizons.
Not everyone stares at screens all day.
I explained to you before, you can do that if you want, but there is no NEED to.
to itch his own.
Try relaxing matty, gold will move.
just breath….
Little b, you make no case for any of your calls. Not only does that make them worthless but it also shows who the arrogant one really is. I make a case for everything I share because smart people care what is being said, not who is saying it.
Still relaxing, don’t you worry your simple self. 😉
Knew you had to go for a last word, you cant help yourself.
Wadda putz. lol
As to my “calls” Ive made very very few, case or not, they have all been correct.
Unlike some know it alls. lol
Now, my call is, PMs from aug we go up till dec, no straight lines. We may go up in july and down into aug, but from there up to dec.
No prices, Ill leave prices to you chart, tea leaf, astrologers and tarot card readers.
No special info, just plain ol odds.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0_fptDqXp14
Greg Hunter’s weekly wrap.
You probably forgotten, played down by the MSM, about Orlando Florida nightclub shootings by now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVxg9JDUV0k
Islam: the religion of Peace.
It obviously is not every Muslim, it is the lack Imam condemnation of violent and intolerant behavior.
Martin Armstrong was saying the dollar would get strong.
A few months ago or more accurately all along.
Gold should break away from the U.S. dollar but I think thats going to require alot of “dropping” the dollar and thats just getting going.
Sometimes I wonder which will happen first, valuable gold, irreversible consequences of the 6th mass extinction or aliens appear.
Silver is getting absolutely wrecked. SLV:GLD weekly candle is one ugly looking reversal candle that is not going to be easily overcome for a long time. I wouldn’t even bother with this sector until late September-October.
I would say, short the metals then. I just purchased DSLV. I think silver needs fill the gap. . There will be one hell of a scary correction in Silver however, that’s positive. Silver is too cheap right now..
Nah, better to just go long US FANGs with 3x leverage. Way way lower risk, lol. Silver was a short when it tagged its 100 WMA. At this point you are playing with fire IMO. GL to you though. you could certainly make a ton of money in the next month.
Im sticking with my aug guess until Im sown to be wrong.
odds are in my favor.
Unless the Hudas hoard or the grand canyon becomes public knowledge or maybe the Indian temple hoards get released, any one of those things would take awhile for the market to soak up.
There are a couple big discovers being sat on, have been for awhile, they need $1500 gold to be profitable.
I think the fact they dont get built is telling us the owners dont think gold is going to get to or hold steady at that price.
With no shortage in the least, more metal than the market can absorb, thats gotta be downward pressure.
Im stickin with my aug guess tho.
As matty says, Im clueless. lol
In the meantime, AMZN a few bucks off its fresh all time high (now at $1717!). Buy the dip. It’s the new fascist business model. Is it good for the country? Absolutely not. But AMZN won’t be stopped by anyone until the own it all.
Remember when I said it would be an easy double from $1000 and got ridiculed. Oh my. Just sell everything you own an dollar cost average in on every single red day with1% of you cash and get rich as it heads to infinity.
Yup, I remember, and the gold bugs ridiculed……………normal.
Rick Ackerman has been making good points lately.
He did mention PMs I think but mostly he’s been focused on fangs etc.
Speaking of Ackerman… Why hasn’t he been on KE for so long?
Rick hasnt been focused on gold?
More money elsewhere.
Nonsense. He’s not here because it’s pointless to give updates every single day. He also probably got very few subs for his efforts since there aren’t many active trader types here.
nonsense my butt, i get emails from him regular.
He is not focused on PMs and since this is a PM site…duh.
Notice that when there was action in pms he was here?
Most investors seek the best return on capital, that hasnt been PMs.
Yes nonsense. I repeated essentially what he said himself a long time ago, dipshit.
Do you think he was “focused” on the PMs when he was on every day? Because he wasn’t. Rick’s method is for trading whatever looks good at the moment, it doesn’t matter what it is.
lol
Was he talking about walt disney when he was here?
I musta missed that.
Geez, if his method is so good for whatever looks good….hmmm guess that aint gold is it?……….dipshit. lol
relax matty, you’ll catch on and gold will move. just breath buddy.
Rick was a guest through periods that were no different, genius. Why am I not surprised that you don’t get any of this?
The H&S in $hui from April-May projects down to about 150. That is still on the table obviously.
AG–lovely gravestone doji being put in on the weekly chart. Down she goes. buy it in early fall under $6 again.
Doug Casey on Uranium.
I’m shorting silver.
Silver has always been the harbinger of things to come with metals. A drop like today is telegraphing we have blood bath coming. But July and august have always been good – so is this a final washout?
Matthew, I looked at a Taurus 605 polymer gun this morning and did not like it. It was hard to open up the cylendar and to spin it. It was very disappointing. The steel version might be OK but not the polymer. I’d rather pay more for a Ruger LCRX with a 3″ barrel. Maybe Doc will sell me his Charter Arms Bulldog .44 Special… What do you think of BTI and IMBBY?
Thanks.
Taurus is junk.
Mine weren’t.
Just do it right and buy a S&W or Ruger revolver. They won’t break and they are built like tanks. And they will hold their value, if not appreciate.
Sometimes cheaper IS doing it right. It depends on the purpose. I put a lot max hand loaded 320 gr solids through my Taurus .44 mag and never had a single issue – no issues with the other two either.
The S&W is well made but not at all a tank. The Ruger IS a tank but that doesn’t make it preferable to the S&W for all calibers/purposes.
Ok, the X frame is a tank but what an uninteresting platform that is.
Bonzo, both look like they have far more upside than downside right here.
I believe IMBBY bottomed in March and BTI is very close to bottoming.
Both look very appealing to me.
Thanks, Matthew. Doc said he likes IMBBY’s technicals more than BTI’s, but they both look good to me. I think the steel Taurus 605 might be OK, but the polymer looked cheap and did not open up easily. I’ll keep on with my S&W .38 six-shooter and my H&R .32
Like Doc and Bad Leroy Brown, I got a .32 gun in my pocket for fun, and got a rayzor in my shoe.
I wonder why BTI is so much cheaper that IMBBY: 1.4x book vs. 5.2 and 2.9 P/E vs 20.6
I once had a 4″ nickel plated S&W .38 that was very accurate and had a great trigger.
Those PE’s don’t sound right. Morningstar has them both with a PE of about 10.
Value Line has BTI earning 4.30 this year, 4.70 next year and 5.95 in 4 to 5 years.
VL does not cover IMBBY. BTI is even bigger than PM after buying RJR last year.
My old S&W .38 CTG is also very accurate with a 4″ barrel and a pleasure to shoot.
My dad got it over 60 years ago.
Morningstar shows a PE of 2 for BTI and a forward PE of 12. For IMBBY, it’s 20 with a forward PE of just under 10. So, in this respect, they are much more similar “going forward.”
I’m guessing your .38 has the tapered narrow barrel and a grove in the top strap for the rear sight. Both features help to make it a decent carry gun.
Matthew, you are right about the taper and the groove. My CTG is like the Model 10 which was given that name in 1957 after my gun was made. Check out youtube for Hickock 45’s rave review of the Model 10. I’m lucky my dad had one.
That looks like a fun piece of history, Bonzo. I don’t think a two inch barrel would be nearly as enjoyable for plinking.
Hickok 45 is always entertaining…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGcr5JsYcW0
Can’t beat the CTG for plinking, but a Ruger LCRX is smaller, lighter, easier to conceal. and can shoot .38+P for added oomph. Hickock 45 reviews the LCRX too.
Israeli MP invokes the supremacy of ‘Jewish race’ in bizarre pro-Netanyahu tirade
Published time: 15 Jun, 2018 04:35
Edited time: 15 Jun, 2018 09:55
“The Jewish people and the Jewish race are of the highest human capital that exists,” he then reiterated. “What can you do? We were blessed by God… I don’t have to be ashamed about the Jewish people being the Chosen People; the smartest, most special people in the world.”
I found this funny @ RT.
cfs, you were saying Sharon and Peres are dead, there thinking sure is not.
Oil stocks creating an opportunity IMO. I think we muddle around a week or two here and there. Here’s my shopping list HPR, WLL
Silver won’t bottom until the small specs are totally washed out. I would guess a break below $16, into the 15s should do it. But who knows. They have been building their positions for months now. They are the dumbest of dumb money and have been stubborn. This weeks COTs, which only reports through Tuesday will likely look absolutely horrendous. It could take a few weeks and some serious damage to silver price to shake them out.
Spanky,
Short silver all the way down to $15.50. Looks like a sure thing it will break down triangle formulation. Rising USD is going to create havoc in markets.
That’s not a huge move for silver but I still doubt that it will get there.
http://schrts.co/CBAJEg
Oil poised to fall June 22. Oil as input cost to Diesel, and cuts to gold miners costs is perceived as weaker cost / price metrics for miners. For diesel to rise, when Saudi wants to keep oil higher, sets up weird scenario. They need high oil to pay for protection from neighbors, they need high oil for IPO in 2019. Yet they can’t slam it down and risk the over-reaction and test 50’s and they can’t solve the opec thing without pissing somebody off. Its setting up for a market that sees things one way in Asia and another way in West and nee entrants to Shanghai will create bifurcation and tug of war between markets and currencies making the UVXY the place to be after June 22 and all peace ain’t breaking out soon between Iran and neighbors nor Saudi and neighbors so the narrative now isn’t NOrth Korea. Its Israel and Persian neighbors and Saudi and non-opec nations and how the world reacts to the EU and ECB and FED policies by voting with their currency. Crypto absorbed many Billions of Fiat and it won’t get re-newed its gone never to be cash again. Silver is too soon. Gold is going to get hit hard before June 22, then trump will announce a gold backed internal US $100 bill this summer to be released 2022-2024 time frame and gold will soar but not until many other things play out and he is shoe in for the 2020 time frame. Hawaii will pop a volcano and weather will be crazy and it won’t end in a few weeks. We are in a cycle for many years of weird weather and that is a bigger story, as it ain’t global warming from carbon its electro-magnetic waves from space and the weird-o stuff Isaac Asimov and more warned are coming our way.
nice bull hammer on $indu. the 50 dma is about to bullishly cross the 100 dma. This next few weeks is going to finally ram home that the stock market is bullet proof, all while commodifies break down, as they should be with the Fed tightening on all fronts and the economy humming along. Wake me when the Dow actually closes below the 200 dma again. It isn’t happening for a long long time.
silver’s 50dma hasn’t been able to firmly cross above the 200 dma in over a year and a half! I mean that is a classic raging bull if I ever saw one (if you turn the chart upside down, that is).
It’s a calf. “Classic raging bull” is your strawman.
Looks more like basing action a la 1980-2000 to me more than a new bull.
I have no idea why you are so adamant we are on the cusp of some huge bull in mining stocks. there is simply no analogous set up to what we have seen that supports an imminent rise. If anything, the only analogues I can find strongly suggest a retest of the 2016 low sometime over the next 12 months. Heck, the 200 WMAs for the $XAU and $HUI are still trending downwards.
Relative to the average U.S. home price, gold would have to spike to about $4,000 to match the spike that peaked in 1980. I’m not predicting such a rise anytime soon, it’s just one distinct difference between then and now. I actually have little interest in the metal right now; the miners will completely blow it away in every major advance for the sector for a long time to come.
Here is a funny one or just interesting………go and check the DEBT CLOCK…….they have gold at $4600 plus, the last time I checked.
The scum bags know the real value……..JMO
Wow, thanks Jerry. I’ve seen the site before but never noticed that. It shows $4477/oz for gold and $571/oz for silver.
You are welcome….
In 1980, long term interest rates were approaching 16% while the Dow had a PE of 6 or 7. Do you think those facts influenced the next 20 years for gold? If your answer is no, Then you should stop investing immediately.
Cartel hitting metals today just what I thought would occur – they created a marginal breakout to trap early longs. A final washout in the making?