We have been talking a lot about the run up in the USD recently and now our friend Chris Kimble breaks down a key test that is around the corner. I know we have some differing opinions on the overall trend of the USD but from a technical perspective Chris points out what we need to watch.

Click here to visit Chris’s website for more great technical commentary.

…Here’s the article…

The U.S. Dollar Index has been mired in a correction for several months. During that time, stocks, gold, and oil exploded higher in 2017 and early 2018.

But the greenback has put together a multi-week rally. Is the correction nearing an end?

Looking at the chart below, you can see that the US Dollar Index has traded in a wide channel since bottoming in 2008 (1). It tested a mid-point trend line early in 2018 (2) and reversed back higher.  It is now testing it’s downtrend resistance line (3).

U.S. Dollar Index Chart – Big Test!

CLICK ON CHART TO ENLARGE

A breakout here would be constructive for Dollar bulls.  And it could set the stage for a test of the upper channel resistance (1). Some consolidation is possible here… bulls definitely would like to see a bull flag pattern develop (or an outright breakout).

However, should the Dollar reverse lower, it could set the stage for a retest of the 2018 lows.

In any event, commodity bulls/bears and asset managers should keep an eye on the Dollar in the weeks ahead!