Some Negative Factors To Consider For Gold
Jordan Roy-Byrne, Founder of The Daily Gold does a great job of considering both the positive and negative factors in the metals market. In this segment we address the negative side of the things that have him a little concerned moving forward.
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I eagerly refreshed my chart to see it finally breaking down again. (;-) Good fer silver especially.
Working with the same principal, it’s bullish that GDXJ:GDX looks favors GDXJ:
http://schrts.co/yyJToa
*principle
Geez 😐
always a confusing word……you need to be spanked……. 🙂
So it’s not my dain bramage? 🙂
it is the public education that will get ya…….. 🙂
Good stuff:
http://schrts.co/BSdrDY
And here are some negative factors for all of you. Your good friend Soros is hard at work.
Flooding the Voter Rolls in US and Greece
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/12227/voter-rolls-greece
they need someone to pay the debt……..out of the pot and into the fire……..
Cory, the comments made about gold and the dollar were the best most succinct annalysis you could find out there (well, maybe to Doc) regarding where we are in the metals space. Jordan knocked it out of the park. ( excellent annalysis )
Looking at the ADX on the weekly gold chart paints an ugly picture for the month of May. If gold does break 1260 and then 1235, it’s heading to double bottom territory. It would feel right as rain to see a washout to 1050 then a V shape recovery going into a long term 8 year bull.
Thanks Chartster. Jordan always has some valuable information week after week. The fact that the USD hit 2 new lows while gold reached 0 new highs tells a very important story.
SPY setting lower highs for the past 90 days. And the bull argument is?
Is Jeff Gundlach Correct on Gold’s $1000 Upside?
April 29, 2018 Jordan Roy-Byrne CMT, MFTA
https://thedailygold.com/is-jeff-gundlach-correct-on-golds-1000-upside/
Yields are definitely heading higher, the question is when. The 10 year U.S. Treasury has a big inverse head and shoulders bottom in play:
http://schrts.co/S9JmNQ
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The Canadian dollar is probably due for at least a bounce…
http://schrts.co/z4U8A1
The miners are being weighed down by the stock market. I still maintain that the miners won’t make any huge run until the Dow finds a near term low and puts in a decent enough rally to scare bears. IMO the Dow still looks more like $gold in 2006 than in 2011.
Well based on today’s action in the Dow so far, I expect a low to be reached in the Dow in the next 2 weeks, probably next week (it’s possible it happens this week if it can manage to tag or dip below the 50 WMA by Friday). The weekly MACD is approaching neutral and that 50 WMA is a stones throw away. I would guess for a lower low next week with a reversal and rally back up to the 25000+ level in the next couple of months.
I disagree. The miners are being weighed down by gold and are boosted by falling stocks.
I don’t know why we should compare the Dow to gold but based on weekly RSI, MACD, and ADX readings at the January top exceed gold’s readings in 2011.
Gold 2011:
http://schrts.co/42EFL7
Gold 2006:
http://schrts.co/J5J6pJ
Dow now, wow:
I’m not saying the Dow is going to new ATHs in the next year. All I am saying is that the miners will get a boost when the Dow finds a near term low. Look at the action in the miners since January. The inflection points are playing out beat for beat.
EXK–does chart symmetry play a role here? If so, we could be looking at range bound price for 4-5 months.
Even if it starts another legit mini moonshot upleg soon, the BB on the daily still need to come in somewhat over the next 1-2 weeks.
Looking at the weekly chart, I don’t think daily BBs matter much. The current setup looks better than the one that kicked off the 2016 move:
http://schrts.co/4VkYQN
The daily chart suggests an imminent 10% pullback unless it can breakout first and then go sideways. For that to happen, silver better get moving.
http://schrts.co/GGrcKz
The black candle on April 16th strongly suggests we get that pullback.
That fear of black candles would have caused you to miss more than a double with IPT…
Yes, if you bought at the bottom and actually sold at the high, I agree.
However, there’s nothing to say the recent low won’t get taken out in time either. I’ll readily admit the weekly chart looks constructive, but it is by no means out of the woods yet.
I am not so superstitious about black candles on anything other than $HUI. But still, EXK’s chart from the lows has been totally clean except for that April 16th blemish, which I would say has a 90% chance of getting cleaned out.
Silver looks sick. There is literally no incentive to buy until it breaks one way or the other.
For EXK to pullback 10%, silver is going to get absolutely hammered, IMO.
The reason I disagree is that EXK is coming off of a daily RSI(14) reading of 83. After such an overbought condition, it could drift a measly 10% lower if silver simply does nothing. In addition, it gained 60% while silver did nothing so a pullback to the neckline of a very bullish H&S bottom would be no big deal at all.
+1
Do not want to see $hui close with a black candle today. It will strongly suggest lower prices ahead. Of all days that miners and silver should be rallying it is today. The yen got an almost 1% pop. And with the stock market down, that should be fueling the metals according to Matthew’s thesis. Nothing to do but wait for the close.
Stock market well off its lows, yet silver and the miners languish, with gold and the yen having made significant swing lows. Literally nothing moves this sector up. It’s all down and more down and then out of the blue for absolutely no reason you’ll get a pop up to resistance for some magical reason to get longs hopeful. Great stuff.
Metals faded hard. Every uptick or pop at this point is being sold. Extremely frustrating. And what will patient longs be rewarded with at the end of it all? The possibility of a multi decade H&S breakdown in gold and silver. Good risk reward. Venting a bit.
Negative factors for gold: Silver and the gold/silver miners will deliver much greater gains. 😉