$1,850 Is The Minimum Upside Target For Gold In This Cycle
David Vincent joins me this morning to comment on the charts below. We look at the long term cycle that gold and silver are currently in to determine just how high they could go. Please refer to the charts below and follow along as we break them down. We also spend some time detailing the overall strategy for Canamex Gold, where David the CEO. Canamex has some ambitious plans to use blockchain technology int he mining sector.
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Click here to visit the Canamex website.
Here are the charts we reference in the interview.
Gold
Silver
It’s become clear to me that the gigantic, bureaucratic nation-state model of counties as varied as the U.S., China and Russia make little sense in their current forms if we care at all about human freedom. Huxley observed that freedom flourishes best at a far more local level of governance
Herd mentality ……..the little flock, has been lead astray …….by govt and corporation
Silver stinks………$16.15…….
16.18…
Long term buy………of a lifetime……….
Platinum 906….
We have another Ben Bernanke here with 100% certainty! Sorry there is never 100% certainty, particularly in TA. Gaps act like magnets to be filled, BUT there is no rule they have to be filled, only probabilities. Sorry we have quackery here.
Uncle Ben……TOTAL A**hole
TA….tough act…..to follow…………
Matthew…….if you are out there……..thanks for the mention on the BOOK, great read.
Hope you are having fun in your travels……..
Thank you Jerry.
Take a look at this monthly chart of the Silver. For the first time in 21 years we have a cross between the Commercial Hedgers and the Large Traders.
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=SI&p=m1
interesting…….thanks…….
The stock market has a lot to do with this action ….completely controlled by the Fed action, which has not been that way for 21 yrs…..JMO
Central banks fraudsters, can not let the metals go……especially the little silver mkt.
Fraud for over 100 yrs……..silver stealers.net……JMO
Notice on the Gold monthly how the large traders and the Commercial hedgers are not following the same pattern.
I’ve heard that JPM agreed to replenish Chinese Silver when they bought the JPM building.
Could this be a clue?
Very interesting……..nice chart…….thanks……..
Thanks for the thoughts on JPM and the replenishing the chinese silver…….I would not think that is out of the realm of possibilities ….Even go back to the 1877, when the silver trade dollar and the opium wars were going on the Americans were tricking the chinese
then……..Pay back time……….The chinese do not forget anything.
BIden and Sons……..Chinese trade membership……..govt politician screw job….
The History of JPM……..is not good……just a continuation of the same BS, they have been playing on the sheeple for ever…………
Just two mines supply the United States with half of its silver production, and both are located in Alaska. It’s quite amazing that Alaska now produces half of the silver for the U.S. when only 30 years ago total mine supply from the state was less than 50,000 oz per year. The silver produced in Alaska comes from the Greens Creek and Red Dog Mines. One is a primary silver mine and the other a zinc-lead base metal mine.
Let us not forget……..Jamie was wanting to retire to Alaska ………..LOL
n addition, Hecla’s Greens Creek Mine in Alaska produced 8.4 Moz of silver this yea
Hecla stock was at $30 in 1980…….now…$3 and change……
JohnK:
Anyone claiming to know what JPM is doing with silver is lying to you. You don’t know, I don’t know, Ted Butler doesn’t know, Sprott doesn’t know and for certain the Turd doesn’t know.
Mr Moriarty:
You are correct saying I don’t know what JPM is doing with their Silver hoard.
One cannot argue that there isn’t something out of the ordinary happening with the commitment of traders monthly chart. I am fishing again, just throwing things out there.
We all know that the Chinese bought JPM’s building,the question is what else did they get, or did they just get the building?
Question for you Mr Moriarty, What would you have to see to convince you that there is a change in the futures with Silver?
Great article Jerry. Thanks for the post.
So, if we subtract the $1.44 cost per oz from $17.23, then Hecla’s estimated silver breakeven is about $15.80 an ounce.
If Hecla’s estimated breakeven is nearly $16, then how are they posting a $5.76 AISC – All-In Sustaining Cost??
You are welcome JOHN
Environmental concerns with the Greens Creek Silver Mine.
http://www.groundtruthtrekking.org/Issues/MetalsMining/GreensCreekMine.html
Environmental concerns ….more cost ….price of silver is to CHEAP…..
JohnK:
The next big move for silver is up. If you get a DSI under ten throw money at it. The divergence between silver and gold is striking but stuff happens.
$1850……keep dreaming. never happen.
check back within a few months, you will see I am right.
You obviously don’t know what Mr. Vincent is talking about. It will be years before we know who’s right (spoiler: Mr. Vincent will be right).
You could be right on 2 things, Mr Vincent could be right and it will take years to find out.
The important thing to understand is that the miners are different animals today than they were at the 2011 top. This, combined with my outlook for the metals is why I’ve been saying for three years that, while I am bullish the metals versus currencies, I am downright bearish them relative to the miners.
Gold didn’t have to go up much in the 1990s for the miners to do very well and the miners will deliver even more leverage this time. In fact, the XAU would have to go up 6.5 times from here while gold goes nowhere just to reach its 1996 top relative to gold and would have to go up roughly 4.5 times just to reach its 1984-2007 average vs gold.
It is natural to doubt it (so most do) but the miners are going to do phenomenally well once this now 20 month correction is over.
Matthew, I am glad to see you back here as I am hoping you will tell us when to sell our mining shares several years down the road. I don’t want to ride’em down again like I did in 2015.
ditto……very appreciative
Glad your back Mathew, very appreciative of your work!
HUI essentially unchanged. Same with GDX and GDXJ although June gold is off $12.60. Dow still searching for its respectability lost long ago. This isn’t really typical. Portending what? Maybe another one day reversal for everything??
I did say over a month ago that gold’s daily cycle would bottom on the employment report. We are currently on day 38 today. The daily cycles have been running around 40 days. Would want to see gold get below the $1303 low from March 1 to satisfy the conditions for a DCL. Ideally we tank hard into Monday or Tuesday next week and gold produces a reversal candle the same day.
This upcoming daily cycle low could also constitute the intermediate cycle low, although it would be a very short intermediate cycle at only 18 weeks. This is admittedly a very hopeful scenario.
I’ll admit that GG and AUY look pretty good here. It’s pretty clear that they were not properly set up in 2016 (way too far away from their 200 WMAs) to sustain the gains like the rest of their cohorts. That is not the case now. They are fully based now and primed. Not calling for anything imminent, and they could certainly pull back if gold gets hit in the short run, but it looks like they will be heading generally higher in the weeks and months ahead.
I also admit I was wrong about the price action last year. I based my prior bearish concern on their month charts, which had blow out bollinger bands, and they were below their 20 month MAs for quite a while after the 2016 ramp. They have held in in a range for a couple of years now, and the bollingers are closing back together, which means they have based out.
Correct about GG and AUY. The monthly charts are a thing of beauty. The same is true for AXU monthly chart. There are others whose weekly BBs are narrowing and ready to break higher. The best chart yet is the silver monthly chart—you like narrow BBs, you’ll really love that one. The volume is also picking up and the 50 SMA and 50 EMA are both now in the price range and ready to be broken to the upside. Not investment advice but the deeper we get into late April, May, and early June, it’ll be a great time to take positions although I’ve started with some stocks whose weekly BBs are narrowing.
Doc: Take a gander at USAS for some tight BBs.
Meant to say on a monthly chart.
Silver, thanks for the alert—I’ve wanted to add to my position on USAS for some time and I think I’ll be able to get it in May for about $2.50–$3.00.
I have been watching USA for quite a while now and I’m sure it will be a thing of beauty when it breaks out. That sounds like a funny way to describe a stock but beauty is in the eye of the beholder. DT
AXU’s consolidation over the last 2 years has been surreal in how tight, narrow and flat it has been. I mean it is beautiful in that sense. Look at how flat and parallel the 50 and 200 WMAs are to each other. That is crazy stuff IMO over such a sustained period.
It would be a pity if it had to break down here after all of that. Admittedly, a break below stops could set up a hell of a launch higher, but it would ruin the beauty of the chart.
Another crash should be building up now that the market has moved up so quickly and new 100 billion in possible tariffs just announced. Vix dropped sharply and may up quickly now. China should retaliate as soon after any new tariffs.
$1850 golds minimum target???? Pleeaassee! Just more clickbait
$1850 by 2023 is clickbait? I say it is just the opposite and is very conservative.
Should have said 2026-27 which makes the call even more conservative.
Gold could well get their by 2023. Its just these medium to long term predictions are purely guesswork. The clickbait term is more associated with the time frame than the price call.
Both gold and silver are looking ok at the moment. But this continued tight trading range will eventually lead to a price breakout. Whether its up or down is the question? With the 1360 region proving such stiff resistance one would assume there would have to be a strong positive helping hand for it to forge to the upside.
My point was that Mr. Vincent’s 1850 call pertains to a cycle that won’t peak for many years — which means it is far from clickbaity.
His measured move is not controversial since the method he used is tried and true.
He is right to call it a minimum and to point out that we don’t know when the target will be achieved.
Absolutely Matthew. Good point. Ultimately, it is guesswork to a certain degree. I must admit I dont know too much about Mr Vincent, so I will reserve my judgement.
The thing to keep in mind about the low volatility and narrowing price range–it doesn’t mean a huge launch is imminent. Look at what gold and silver did between 2000 and 2001. They were in very narrow ranges, similar to today, and they proceeded to drift lower for about a year.
Moreover, all throughout the 80’s and 90’s silver and gold had long long stretches of low volatility while drifting up and down (but generally down) during that 20 year period. Just take a look at a weekly chart of $gold–set the starting date back to 1980 check the bollinger band width from that time.
Market conditions today would be quite different compared to 15, 20 years ago would they not?
Dude…..Spanky….or whatever your name is — this country has turned to pile of CHIT. Its way way worse off than 2000/2001. Im sick of your USD/JPY they can manipulate us for ever nonsense. You’re an emotional sucker
GDX is trapped between the 20 and 50 DMAs, the gap between which is narrowing dramatically now. More drama.
GG’s weekly 50,2 bollinger bands are at their narrowest in history (stock has been around since 1994).
Good Read……………..How to figure it out…..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-04/brave-new-world-revisited-and-disease-over-organization