Fear In The Markets, Trade Wars, and Gold’s Reaction
Craig Hemke, Founder of TFMetalsReport.com shares his thoughts on the new narrative of fear creeping into the markets. Now that the US markets are negative for the year, Q1 could be the first down quarter since 2016. This all ties into the ongoing chatter about trade wars with China. Gold is also discussed in terms of the metal price and the underlying stocks. GDX is very important to watch in terms of holding the lower part of its range.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Asians most likely got all the gold they need…….they have been buying , while US has been selling…… They have CTA…..covered their arce.
Trump is negotiating…..
BRUSSELS (AP) — The Latest on the European Union’s summit of leaders (all times local):
1:40 p.m.
Germany’s economy minister says he’s “happy and relieved” the European Union has obtained a last-minute temporary exemption to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum.
Peter Altmaier told reporters Friday that Germany and the EU will now work on “finding a good solution with all resources” by May 1 — the new deadline.
Altmaier said the EU hadn’t granted concessions, adding “when I arrived in Washington, I had the impression that a lot in the U.S. administration had not yet been set in stone.”
Foreign Minister Heiko Maas says the result “shows that a resolved EU that speaks one voice is listened to.”
He added, however, that the “basic conflict remains” and said Germany would continue to fight for a “fair and regulated trade and for a multilateral world trade system.”
11:00 a.m.
The European Union leaders say that they want the temporary exemption to U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum the tariffs to be made permanent.
The leaders said that the tariffs U.S. President Donald Trump could still impose “cannot be justified on the grounds of national security” and therefore should be scrapped for good.
Despite the temporary exemption, the EU leaders said at Friday’s summit that they reserve the right “to respond to the U.S. measures as appropriate and in a proportionate manner.”
The EU leaders have also said they want close cooperation with Washington to deal with trade issues from now on.
There have to be trade wars with China.
China is a predator.
The US had lost satellite launch capability, because of price under-cutting by China, so Elon Musk comes up with reusable rocket technology to provide US independence again.
Now China is pricing below cost to take away the US edge. In computer technology, China is stealing intellectual property on a huge scale.
World’s Biggest Cryptocurrency Exchange Is Heading to Malta
March 23, 2018
> Binance to announce banking partnership in Malta: Zhao
> Move to Europe comes after crackdowns in Japan, China
Feeling OK with Crypto Wars — Issue No. 18
March 23, 2018
Your dose of crypto news and analysis from @BTO and @Goldfinger
CFS is right
You Want a Gold Rally? You’re Going to Get It – Doug Casey Editor
Kitco News – Mar 23, 2018
“For gold investors patiently awaiting a gold rally, Doug Casey’s right-hand man says the time has come.”
Yes Gold is moving higher this morning, and it is normal to see a post-FOMC rate hike bounce, but it remains to be seen if it will be muted or break out.
If Gold gets back up above this year’s high of $1365.40 (which was higher than 2017’s high of $1362.40) then it may have a shot at closing above the 2016 high of $1377.50.
Until that 2016 peak is taken out, then we are still in the same range-bound trading channel and the institutional funds and money sitting on the sidelines won’t be coming into the sector.
Will this just be a post rate-hike relief rally or the beginning of the next impulse leg higher?
5 year Gold #Chart showing prior peaks:
Jordan Roy-Byrne: 2018 Likely to Set Off Large Gold Rally
Palisade Radio – Mar 23, 2018
@Goldfinger – “Get ready for an epic breakout in $gold that nobody was expecting…”
— from #index, about 2 hours ago
Chart Check on Gold | Mark Newton
Real Vision – Mar 22, 2018
“Mark Newton, a technical analyst and the founder of Newton Advisors, discusses how he’s viewing the yellow metal now.”
Jordan on Palisade Radio is a good listen. Jordan says to begin accumulating now or be prepared to pay higher prices…..FWIW I agree. I don’t care if I miss a couple % on the price now; my priority is to get the shares. I’m also into QID, a bear ETF on the QQQ. bought last week so have some space that I can ride for a while………Not a huge position but sure nice to see those conventionals falling and QID rising.
I don’t care if I miss a couple % on the price now………….DITTO
Silverdollar – nice work on the QID position.
Yes, I agree with Jordan’s point about accumulating now or be prepared to pay higher prices. Any weakness we see in the next few months will be the final opportunity to position in quality stocks before the major moves in the PM space begin.
If gold closes around here (up $19 today) the weekly candle and upper bollinger are poised for follow through to the upside. No guarantees of course, and we may get a doji candle next week for the price to cool off before going higher. The divergence between gold and silver is pretty astounding currently.
Casey’s call is a safe one……..after all , times are changing, anyone can see that….
well, maybe not everyone……. lol
Zucky and the CIA ,SES ……..screwed up…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/breaching-public-trust-facebook-beginning
Per the article…..
And if Creepyberg and the vampires on Madison Avenue think they can recover their business after such a sincere violation of the public’s trust they are in for one hell of a rude awakening.
Someone else is saying………Hilly is going to be thrown under the bus….
I’ve been saying for months that Hillary’s popularity would have to drop below a certain critical threshold for her to be indicted. That she would have to become a true liability to the cause of globalism for the sharks to finally feed in the grandest breakdown of the Prisoner’s Dilemma the world has ever seen.
Drug runners and the death penalty………will apply to BIlly and Hilly,……their hit list is way to long to ignore.
John 1:5-17 New King James Version (NKJV)
5 And the light shines in the darkness, and the darkness did not comprehend[a] it.
Let the hootin’ n’ hollerin’ begin.
For me, the weakest silver miners have merely managed to crawl back to their downtrending 50 WMAs in the last couple of months, most of which have crossed below their 200 WMAs. I’ll take it as a positive that IPT has been acting very strong on a relative and absolute basis–but it has such a small market cap that it’s not the most trustworthy indicator for the sector. This jibes with my prediction about March 2018 representing a turning point for these miners and that IPT should make its way to the downtrend line formed by the 2011 and 2016 peaks before pulling back.
Something like AXU, which has held up remarkebly well in comparison to the weakest silver miners, right now looks dead neutral and is literally poised to follow silver wherever it goes.
It’s time for silver to show us the money.
silver is not going to show anyone anything………..silver stealer.net…..
Until JPM is busted…..
Well apparently JPM has one of the largest physical hordes of silver ever now and are thus perfectly poised to see silver head to $500. The banksters always win.
JPM……..biggest pot in history……
American history that is…….
It would be beautifully evil if silver did go to insane heights and JPM made a fortune. I mean, heads I win tails you lose to the max! They make billions off of MBS, get bailed out 100 cents on the dollar by the US govt and Fed when they should have gone bust, and subsequently establish one of the largest physical silver hordes in history. It’s pure evil and god seems to be looking the other way for now.
Jamie…..JPMORGAN …..just do a history lesson……Morgan is not going anywhere, until the FED IS BUSTED.
Jamie, is , like Lloyd a political INSIDER…….
No argument from me. Jamie should be swinging from a lamp-post in Battery Park.
All is rigged…., been rigged, will continue to be rigged……until they are ready to capitalize on the situation and let it go higher. ……..jmo
Jamie and Lloyd, need to swing with Billy and Hilly
JPM………is most likely loaning the money to the silver miners, in hopes they default…
Plenty of time to purchase miners……….IMO
WPM,AG, HL, USAS, MAG, EXK, PAAS, SSRM, CDE, etc will also win with $500 silver.
Maybe. Until GDX:GLD ratio takes out the 2016 high, I think Hugh Hendry’s thesis regarding mine nationalization risks increasing with rising metals prices is still on the table.
You can’t beat physical metal sitting in a vault in terms of risk adjusted return.
Spanky:
You don’t know how much silver JPM owns.
I don’t know how much silver JPM owns.
Ted Butler doesn’t know how much silver JPM owns.
The Turd is not only a liar, he doesn’t know how much silver JPM owns.
You don’t have to believe crap just because some idiot days it. Tell me when Ted Butler ever made a prediction that made anyone any money. He’s a fraud just as the Turd is.
Trump needs to Veto the BILL…………imo………needs more money for the WALL…
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/senate-passes-13-trillion-omnibus-spending-bill
NY and NJ……..do not need a tunnel………, the American people need and want the wall.
Let’s build a wall on the west bank of the Hudson River to keep everyone east of it from
crossing over and ruining the heartland.
Ditto on that one………agree 100%
200%
WELL HE Chickened OUT>>>>>>>>>Signs Bill………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/watch-live-trump-reveals-fate-spending-bill
Guess we will need the military , when we default on the bonds…….
Saying he was “unhappy” with the bill, the president explained that while the bill isn’t perfect, it includes several “hard-fought” defense spending increases (the largest on record) which push the defense budget to $700BN, and a pay-hike for the troops.
Remember Roman History……the Praetorian Guard always got their money
Do you really think we couldn’t accomplish the same, without building a wall, Jerry?
I would think we could by:
1) Remove all incentives for illegal immigrants (no social services, mandatory labor to pay for deportation).
2) Severe penalties for Americans who employ illegals.
And, in a kinder, gentler world,
3) Help Latin America build its economies and middle class instead of exploiting them so that the economic incentive for migration disappears. Few people really WANT to remake their lives in a foreign culture.
Never catch on GH, that would tale all the fun out of it.
oops, “take” all the fun out of it.
“oops”..The last thing ya wanna hear under local Anesthetic.
Great 3 points GH. I agree in principle but doubt the public will is there to make those changes happen.
Making those changes would actually address the core issues, but instead people enabling illegal immigration and sanctuary cities have some misplaced belief that they are the good guys and gals. They are only perpetuating the problems.
The Wall is a promise to the sheeple……..which most do not have a clue on certain matters.
The wall could be used as a symbol …..for respect our space, respect our culture, respect our way of life.
In order for you to do and accomplish…1,2 and 3 (which are great ideas, which are only talked about)……..You will need to eliminate the members of the ruling families….
Not everyone is sure there is an Illuminate( those who think they know better than WE THE People)….An inter circle of rulers, who run the show…which we have been speaking about for several years.
Newest is the SES.
Part of their managerial class, paralleled in the private sector I imagine.
And, of course, the ‘non-profit’/NGO world.
And the UN/Bretton Woods institutions…
Trump needs to veto the bill and start the arrests. If he doesn’t veto the bill and pull the band-aide off now, he is toast and so is you/we/us/I/America and the world.
These Marxists in the US government need to be routed out, now..!
On March 23, 2018 at 8:09 am,
OOTB Jerry says:
Trump needs to Veto the BILL…………imo………needs more money for the WALL…
And I agree 100% with you on the arrest………..
TRUMP……Should have and DIDN’T…………….Oh, Boy………there is so much pork in this bill….I give up, Congress has him by the ..
If things don’t change right now, Americans are going to get what thier ignorant asses deserve..
I share your concern………..Still need to keep supplying info to the ignorant……jmo
Just amazing, that there are not more comments concerning the same…….
More concerned with watching the BB….grow closer till they snap…..lol
America is at the apex of the curve, right here right now, this next week. How we handle the finance and government moving forward, Can Not be underestimated! This is the most important time in Americas history, right now.
Watch and see.
Thanks for your continued efforts…….
It’s lonely out there for us Liberty loving patriots, Jerry.
Bob M wrote “no one knows anything”
I’m going to write “no one DOES anything”!
Good one…………
You are nuts if you don’ think we are beyond the point of no return.
Bottom line is someone needs to pay the piper. There is no such thing as a free lunch, in nature and in economics.
No Spanky you are nuts……..God gives you an election…….call a DEBT JUBILEE, according to the Jews, who put you in this position to begin with….
Everyone needs to get educated…….rather than trying to be rich, in a system of corruption….
Debt jubilee? Let’s see how well the Chinese take that. That would be WWIII IMO.
No, the Chinese, are not the problem……..
The Chinese have already been paid…….
They already know the bonds are no good…….at a rate of 1% and 2%, the Rule of 72 already makes them worthless.
We sold them worthless bonds, they stole our intellectual property…..plus they got some cheap gold to boot……….jmo
You realize that if they were to cut off trade with the US, the US would most definitely plunge into hyperinflation. China has all the productive capacity. The US has near zero. The Chinese hold all the cards IMO.
Inflation, ……..
I think we already have hyperinflation,
Hyperinflation – Investopedia
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/h/hyperinflation.asp
When associated with depressions, hyperinflation often occurs when there is a significant increase in the money supply not supported by gross domestic product (GDP) growth, resulting in an imbalance in the supply and demand for the money. Left unchecked, this causes prices to increase, as the currency loses its value.
Super Inflation in , college tuition, healthcare, autos, housing, food, taxes real estate , state sales tax………I do not know one thing that has gone down…….
Oh, wait……real wages……..
OOTB agreed about the increase in the money supply which will lead to more and more inflation and a devaluing of the currency. We are gradually starting to see it, but there was a delayed reaction as most liquidity first flowed into the equities. Now we are seeing it start to seep into most other areas of life and once that genie gets out of the bottle, I doubt the central bankers can put it back in.
..no..Spanky..you’re nuts if you give up!
There’s always a solution. I’m hoping that is now..
The end result is some party is going to have to take the loss. If it’s our creditors, expect WWIII.
Absolutely. Nuts to give up.
The someone who has to take a loss are the slavers who currently own our asses, at $1,000,000+ of debt and unfunded obligations for every private sector worker.
If that means WWIII, so be it. But I believe we can do better than that.
I think we are so close to the edge,i am surprised we have not gone over that cliff yet.
You have to cut off the money, the power to corrupt everything and everybody is embedded in the federal reserve.
Hoping that we get past the final four at least before the mushroom clouds appear. Go Michigan.
Yes, lets all get high on March Madness., where they pay to play…….Go Rich Patino…, how about some Football from the old Penn State boys…..
Lets all send some more money to the college education scammer…….
$200,000 for a BS…………LOL
If it can break out here, the XAU’s next logical target will be the 600 WMA, currently at 129 and declining.
3 hrs. to go and the PPT just showed up to prevent another pasting like yesterday on the DOW. Must keep the show going………
Here is a great post from a ceo.ca contributer @BS.
@BS – “Here are 9 the Exploration rules that David Lowell adheres to. Assuming he is right (given his track record), which of these rules aren’t followed currently? Or has exploration changed in recent years and do these rules no longer apply?”
_________________________________________________________________
“I have a number of exploration rules that I follow:” – David Lowell
1. Ore is rock which can mined at a profit. Low grade is sometimes mineable, and high grade is sometimes not.
2. Mines are found in the field, not the office
3. Mines are now almost always found by drilling holes, so if no part of the budget is spent on drilling there is almost no chance of success. (Pierina was the rare exception.)
4. Exploration is a cost/benefit business. Expensive high-precision core drilling is often used when low-precision low-cost rotary drilling would suffice. In the Atacama Project we spent $3 million on wide-spaced rotary drill holes. If we had used core holes our budget would have run out when less that half the holes were drilled including those that found the Escondida and Zaldivar orebodies. The same logic applies to all other exploration costs.
5. High-tech devices and geophysical surveys are very rarely of value in mine discovery. There should be an almost metaphysical communication between the rocks and the successful explorationist in which the rocks talk to the explorationist. If he turns part of this job of geological mapping over to a high-tech gadget, he may look good to uniformed management, but he is less likely to find a mine.
6. It is important to have a good understanding of the target he is looking for, including understanding some mining engineering, metallurgy, mine finance, and mineral economics. He is not looking for a scientific curiosity; he is looking for a mass of rock which can be made into a mine. I believe my mining engineering and mine production work has been very important in my exploration success.
7. Mineral exploration, like investing new blockbuster drugs, has a very low probability of success. Only one out of three hundred to fine hundred attractive targets become a mine. You have to accept the fact that you usually be wrong. I’d guess that only one out of thirty well-trained exploration geologists ever actually find a mine. However, if an explorer has found one mine, statistically he is likely find others.
8. Finding mines is a high-risk business. In addtion to the geological risk are the political risk, the metal price risk, the mine financing risk and the timid, incompetent management risk. Success is the summation of a list of well-evaluated risks.
9. My last facto, which you don’t find in training manuals or classroom or mining articles, is the freedom to plan you own exploration project without interference of the company rules or tradition or interference by supervisors who are as good as prospector as you.”
………..Trump signs bill………I am thinking he is a goof ball on this one….we will see
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-23/watch-live-trump-reveals-fate-spending-bill
Disappointed by silver and silver miner’s relative and absolute performance today. SIL looks like it will come down next week.
I think it will be hard for silver to rally while the SM is declining. That has clearly been the culprit behind the huge divergence between silver and gold since December. Gold is clearly king.
FWIW, this week AXU’s 20 WMA positively crossed the 50 WMA for the first time since Jan 2016.
To clarify, the last positive cross was January 2016. We all know what followed.
Pretty fugly close for most of my silver miners. While they were up a couple %, most closed with perfect dojis. So tired of seeing silver underperform.
AXU has a particularly ugly doji today. We probably go lower with the Dow next week. Dow *should* find support at the 50 WMA, so not that much further away.
Basically today’s pop in the silver miners was faded the whole day. Silver is hanging on but still looks sick.
6 month Candleglance charts on 12 different Silver Mid-tiers and Jrs:
(some look healthier than others thus far, but the interest just hasn’t been in the sector for the last 12-18 months, even though metals prices have held up rather well). This too shall pass….
darn it – stock charts resets it to 2 months. Here I added the Stochastics RSI to it hoping to save the 6 month setting, but if it doesn’t post right, then just use the drop down from 2 months to 6 months.
It didn’t work. Well use the drop down and good trading everyone.
If the Dow is truly in a new bear, the divergence between silver and gold, and the miners and gold, could continue to grow.
In any event, was hoping for a strong close today and we didn’t get it. We got the opposite with lots of selling into strength. Basically this week amounted to noise until proven otherwise.
Personally the muted reaction to the FOMC rate hike is pretty much as anticipated. I only expected a tradable rally, but won’t be upset if the rally turns into an impulse leg up that makes a new high.
The close was still a positive though today for the metals and most of the mining ETFs were up 2% on the day, and many juniors up 3-6%.
Obviously we’ll have to see if there is more follow through next week and if Gold is going to make a run at this year’s high of $1365.40 and then the 2016 high of $1377.50.
I’ve been in the camp that this is likely in the second half of the year, once we get through some of the summer doldrums. It’s still within range though at present levels for the near term, and this was a constructive close for the week in the PMs.
I haven’t really seen much on the rally post FOMC rate hike to cause me to change my strategy; but taking out the 2016 high would be the only thing that would accelerate any final positioning.
__________________________________________________________
> On March 14, 2018 at 7:25 pm,
Excelsior says:
“Agreed Doc. I’m looking for opportunities to shuffle things around and add to positions during the Summer Doldrums.”
> On March 14, 2018 at 7:29 pm,
Excelsior says:
“Having said that, I am prepared for a short-duration rally after the March rate hike by the Fed. A nice tradable rally, which should give the miners a little nudge higher.”
Gold Breakout? Watch These 3 Things…
by @TheDailyGold (Jordan Roy-Bryne) on March 23, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@thedailygold/gold-breakout-watch-these-3-things
Well……number one was accomplished…….
opps that is next week…….
double pp……
This is one of the worst guests here totally full of it.
Nice weekly candle in the $GOLD:$SPX ratio. I think the long-term low in this ratio is in, based on the monthly chart which only subscribers can see.
Stock market top signal ripening, but not there yet:
But the S&P 500 has also put in a long term top versus the $CRB commodity index:
Oops, for clarity, based on this chart I should have said, the $CRB commodities index has put in a long-term low vs the S&P 500.
Here’s the DJIA topping vs the $CRB. I put the vertical line in real time late 2017, so jumped the gun. But fairly high confidence it’s a done deal that this ratio has topped.
GCC also looks to have bottomed vs the S&P 500, so it’s not just the overweighting of oil in the $CRB index:
GH. Thanks for the different sector and ratio charts. Much appreciated.
(PVG) Pretium part 1: Free cash flow analysis
March 23, 2018 – Glenn Chan
“So far, the Brucejack mine has yet to generate free cash flow. Without needing to get too fancy, simply looking at Pretium’s cash flow is enough to see that Pretium’s shareholders will likely be wiped out or diluted close to zero eventually. Pretium may have extreme difficulty in coming up with the $423M+ needed to refinance its credit facility on or before December 2019.”
https://glennchan.wordpress.com/2018/03/23/pretium-part-1-free-cash-flow-analysis/
This shouldn’t come as a surprise because over 2 years we mentioned here on the KER a few different times that the PVG resource was nuggety, non-continuous, and it may struggle once they had a few quarters of production in place (after initially throwing the “jewelry box” high grades at the mine at their launch for PR optics).
In addition, we discussed a few different that times that it would be VERY capital intensive to get the Brucejack mine built and producing. Looks like these concerns are exactly what we see playing out now.
People got a bit grouchy at the time of those discussions, but the point was just because some companies hit high grade, it doesn’t matter as much as delineating a solid resource (without grade smearing to make it seem more robust than it really is).
This is the same exact problem that Rubicon got into and to a lessor degree what Luna Gold (now in Equinox Gold) faced when going into production.
The other fallacy is that lower grade mines should be avoided, which is simply not true. There are plenty of lower grade mines that are economic, and plenty of higher grade mines that go bust.
To quote famed geologist & mine builder David Lowell:
“Ore is rock which can mined at a profit. Low grade is sometimes mineable, and high grade is sometimes not.”
Often it is the smaller Jr producers that get the edge (even though for some reason investors get infatuated with huge expensive Gold & Copper projects). The sheer capital that needs to be forked out to get those huge projects going is often their demise, and the fact that they are huge makes them a target of both environmental groups pushing back, and in some jurisdictions nationalization efforts by foreign governments.
In contrast, Pretium’s neighbors (SA) Seabridge look they may have both grade and continuity. It will be interesting to see how this area play in the Golden Triangle around Brucejack pans out.
Asian gold is currently $24 cheaper than London!