The Bounce In Metals After The Fed Meeting
Doc joins me to focus on the metals move up from yesterday. Again on the back of a fed rate hike we saw gold and more importantly gold stocks get saved from a downtrend they were in. We look at how the technical factors that also lined up for the bounce. The question is will this bounce lead to a breakout or simply a run back up to the upper part of the range.
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+1
So as it turned out, yesterday’s move in miners was to suck in early longs. Bullion banks don’t make it easy, isn’t that the truth? Let’s see how the day ends.
Silver is just sucking wind so far today. It just cannot get up off the floor. Either way this goes, I won’t be surprised in the least. I have seen pretty much everything at this point.
Well that comment covers about every potential outcome either way.
Thanks for the insights
I wasn’t making a prediction. Again, reading comprehension 4tw.
Agreed, you were just commenting on which “way this goes.”. While I haven’t seen pretty much “everything” like you have, share your outlook and wouldn’t be surprised either way if it went up or down.
More than likely it will be one of those 2 directions from here. 🙂
> On February 27, 2018 at 9:17 am,
spanky says:
“Silver is about to break down on the weekly and months charts. It will definitely be taking out the 2016 low by late March. The bloodbath begins today.”
“Silver miners are headed back to new multi year lows too, though I am not sure they will take out the 2016 low.”
• On February 27, 2018 at 9:26 am,
Matthew says:
“Silver will take out 13.73 by late March?”
• On February 27, 2018 at 9:27 am,
spanky says:
“Yes.”
> On February 27, 2018 at 9:33 am,
spanky says:
“If the stock market crashes, so will gold and silver, but more so. Especially silver. The trade of the year is long stock market and short silver.”
> On February 27, 2018 at 9:48 am,
spanky says:
“Silver is done. The monthly charts are wrecked. It will be basing out for another 10 years.”
OK, some of that was probably emotional hyperbole. But there is no denying silver is hanging in the balance right now, having made lower highs for almost 2 years now, unable to maintain itself above the 200 WMA the entire time.
spanky – You seemed overly confident and matter of fact about those positions and predictions in those posts. (and they were dead wrong). This is not an isolated incident either.
They are just like dozens and dozens of other posts you put up day after day that are sensationalize, over the top bearish (without any grounding or rationale) and aren’t doing any of us or you any favors. Capiche?
If they are “emotional hyperbole” then maybe spare us all the garbage and nonsense.
There’s a good lad.
It’s trolling.
Agreed GH, but directed more at a sector and specific stocks he knows many of us follow. Very odd and confusing.
Doc, yesterday 2 more insiders bought 12000 shares ABX in open market. Something is up.
Could Pascua Lama about to get approval, or a takeover of ABX by NEM or KL?
You start to wonder about that with all this activity.
Doc,
I checked back over a couple of years and the volume is not abnormal.
The cheaper the share price goes, then funds can purchase larger volumes for the same money, so it isn’t unusual to see volumes increase during a pricing pullback. There has been some chatter about ABX merging with NEM or another major.
ABX Insider trading
Date Name Shares Traded Value Shares Held
2018-03-20 Thomson, Kevin James 10,000 $156,000.00 10,000
2018-03-19 Sipos, Katherine 2,000 $32,290.00 11,361
2018-03-14 Dushnisky, Kelvin Paul Michael 3,845 $61,212.40 126,479
2018-03-14 Krcmarov, Robert Ljubomir 2,000 $31,420.00 2,000
2018-03-13 Rich, Darian Kevin 2,500 $39,399.00 37,591
2018-03-13 Rich, Darian Kevin 2,500 $39,500.00 40,091
2018-03-13 Dushnisky, Kelvin Paul Michael 2,865 $45,352.95 121,654
2018-03-13 Dushnisky, Kelvin Paul Michael 980 $15,503.60 122,634
2018-03-12 Clow, Graham G. 3,500 $54,212.90 3,500
2018-03-12 Clow, Graham G. 4,000 $61,960.00 19,083
2018-03-12 Krcmarov, Robert Ljubomir 2,000 $30,920.00 22,633
2018-03-12 Prichard, John Robert Stobo 10,000 $154,100.00 30,000
2018-03-12 Dushnisky, Kelvin Paul Michael 4,310 $66,675.70 118,789
2018-03-08 Thornton, John Lawson 306,000 $3,584,973.00 1,707,590
2018-03-02 Rich, Darian Kevin 1,762 $26,394.76 6,097
2018-02-27 Marcet, Pablo 1,000 $1,000,000.00 0
2018-02-27 Marcet, Pablo 1,000 $1,000,000.00 5,000
2018-02-27 Marcet, Pablo 1,000 $15,040.00 5,000
2018-02-23 Marcet, Pablo 4,000 $62,720.00 4,000
2017-12-31 Rich, Darian Kevin 800 $0.00 4,335
Apologies if this table does not post correctly
China ……….WTO…….trade laws suit
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/us-file-wto-suit-against-china-trade-law-violations
DOC…COULD THIS BE THE ULTIMATE ,SELL IN MAY AND GO AWAY? MAY BE IN APRIL?
Bulthus, concerning the conventional stock market or the PMs?
Doc,
You sure do bring a voice of technical reason! Very rich comments, Sir.
I was thinking we get a nice drop next week, then a nice pop in April widening the weekly BBands, then a smack down in May ending the bear. My strategy was to buy when the weekly candle is outside the bottom BBand in May on GDXJ.
I’ve always thought the bear ends with gold bugs being bewildered. But, it’ll probably play out as you suggest. Thanks for your thoughts!
DEEP STATE…….for real………..Rand Paul……
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/rand-paul-admits-absolutely-deep-state-exists
Now we need him to join in the game with …Eliminate the SES, …..End the Fed…..etc.
It will be so ironic if the metals (at least silver) and miners gets sucked down with the stock market. Heads I win, tails you lose. Of course, historically, we know the metals and miners haven’t exactly fared too well in a liquidity crisis.
Historically the miners and metals will move inversely to the general stock markets and will pick up a bid from crashing valuations in the bloated Blue Chip stocks.
2008/2009 was a VERY different set up, so expecting things to play out the same is not going to happen. Sure in the very beginning we may see a sell everything atmosphere, but there aren’t many sellers left in the resource space at this time, unlike the lofty set up in 2007. The general stock markets couldn’t be more overbought and ripe for a rout though.
But metals usually rebound much quicker is the midst of the crash.
+1 In the midst and also after the crash. After the 2008/2009 “Financial Crisis” the metals and miners recovered much quicker than the general markets and shot way past them in outperformance.
Having said that, people that are trying to extrapolate what will happen to the metals and miners if the markets crash today (by looking through the lens of what played out in 2008/2009) are barking up a very different tree.
The set up is much different now with the general markets at nosebleed bloated valuations never seen before and PE multiples that are unjustifiable. In contrast, the metals and miners are at much lower levels, so they won’t correct nearly as hard as the general markets if there is a liquidity event and there aren’t nearly as many sellers left as there were in 2007 in the resource sector. What is more likely is that resource sector will revert back more in alignment to their longer term inverse correlation to the general equities markets, and be the recipient of money flows from a large sector rotation. When people go looking for good value it won’t be found in the FAANG stocks, but will be found in the commodity space.
Quicker *in* the midst.
Sure the rebound is better, but the plunge that precedes it is typically equally severe in degree.
I’m worn out at this point. Ready for anything. A 50% plunge–sure, why not.
I would agree with the “worn out”…part
Once more people are worn out, then the sentiment will drop to a point where a nice reversal in direction can occur. It would be nice to see the whole sector even more worn out by late spring / early summer.
Thank you for posting these quotes from spanky. This guy is a mental case! If I had to sit next to him in car, plane or bus – I would physically throw out….he’s that much of nusiance!! I can’t believe they let a troll like him post here!! Sorry for the rant but I like to read and listen to the commentary but sp
anky just repeating the same nonsense over and over every day just plain sucks!!!
agreed the repetitive posts that aren’t substantiated and have been way off base are tiring.
Here’s a short read on some of Fleckenstein’s views that was worth the read IMO: https://kingworldnews.com/alert-fed-trapped-no-way-out-also-paulson-fund-shutdown-marks-bottom-in-gold-market/
We have known this since 2008. Goldbugs noted the unsustainability of the system in 1971. It’s all about timing. On top of that you have to worry about the State taking your stuff and killing your dreams of getting rich off of the endgame (this is very real IMO).
Silver, it was good to read Paulson is exiting. It’s also good to know everyone has pretty much given up on PMs and the stocks. It’s only a matter of time before the narrative really changes and the metals get their mojo. In my view now, there are 2 possible scenarios that could change the narrative. 1. The Fed continues to raise rates and decrease their balance sheet resulting in a slowing economy and a dumping conventional market and bond market. They would then change their verbiage with a tilt toward pausing rate rises and QT. 2. The Fed is right that the economy is as strong as they wish and inflation starts to rear its’ ugly head as wages start to move north in a more aggressive manner.
I agree with you that it’s positive that Paulson is exiting. The following statement though from one of Fleck’s readers about reading too much into volume gave me pause: “I know you have highlighted this many times for your readers, but it is well worth repeating. Human beings have very little to do wit the volume in stocks we are seeing. I manage money and have been in this business for 32 years. 90% of what you are seeing is two computers trading between each other managing different strategies. There is very little information in trading volumes.” What are your thoughts on that, Doc?
Silver, I can go along with that statement. I just don’t think it necessarily applies to thinly traded assets—an example would be the PM stocks.
Logical as always. Thanks for the reply.
Ira’s Morning:
Kaiser in Puerto Rico discussing the island and cryptos (on RT)
Daily cycle low on the April employment report looks more and more likely after today’s action.
Maxine Waters just charged on 3 counts corruption.
I guess she will be busy for awhile………..Impeachment will be the least of her troubles.
Attorney fees…….will eat away the new found gains……..
As some others say…….”.Pray for sanity”……which really applies in this case.,,,I think
Sanity…………Trump starts anew…….with a new legal team……about time.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-03-22/dowd-resigns-trumps-lead-lawyer-mueller-probe-hes-increasingly-ignoring-advice
Mueller is going to eat up as much of the $100million as he can, before he gets canned
OOTB,
The SES is an entity opporating outside the constitution creating a shadow government. That is two or more people conspiring against the constitunal government, which is sedition! Maybe that’s why there are 18,000 sealed indictments?
See the law:
https://www.law.cornell.edu/uscode/text/18/2384
GReat comment………..I would like to see those indictments exercised…….
thanks for the post…..
+1
Thanks for the post……..I have started my review….. 🙂
this is really rich……..
https://www.fbcoverup.com/docs/cyberhijack/cyber-hijack-findings.pdf
False Statement Accountability Act……1996…..allowing parties to lie to congress
no wonder we are in trouble……….
600 pages
Could we please have an executive summary by Monday? 😉
Looks like a treasure trove.
PDAC 2018 Takeaways
by @Leni on March 22, 2018
Is 2018 the Year for Mergers and Acquisitions in the Base Metals Sectors?
PDAC 2018
by EvenPrime
“This was just an adventure.”
It is always great to hear from Doc.