Davos and Currency Moves – USD Continues Its Breakdown
Chris Temple joins me today to look at the moves in currencies especially the continued breakdown in the USD. We also consider how the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland is playing a roll in this move down. Relating this the moves in gold and gold stocks there are some considerations here as well.
Click here to visit Chris’s site for more great market and economic commentary.
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We need price targets for gold and oil please.
If you don’t realize it, folks, this is the U.S. getting closer to End of Empire, Weimar style.
It is still possible to stall the collapse, by the Fed raising interest rates.
Yes, the penalty to that will be a stock market fall.
But which do you prefer……
a falling stock market,
or a dollar collapse, leading to high inflation…..and stag-flation.
Surprise, surprise: All the lost tweets, text messages and phone calls have been found.
I guess someone thought of contacting the NSA, which collects all. (regardless of illegality)
Nothing can ever really be lost again.
Is it just my twisted mind, or is anyone else wondering if these texts have been redacted or otherwise sanitized?
long KOPN on the breakout
Surveys in Puerto Rico are showing that as much as 10% of the population will move to the U.S. this year.
Cause: General corruption and lack of repairs to electricity and water systems.
Citizens in, DACA illegals out……………
RT at Miami Bitcoin Conference:
….. here is Kerry commenting on the same……..
http://financialsurvivalnetwork.com/2018/01/i-just-attended-the-north-american-bitcoin-conference-in-beautiful-miami-florida/
NYMEX closes here comes a slam in PMs.
AG beginning its crash….
Down 6% at the moment.
And IPT is still UP 1.45%. Your crash is more like the bears’ last stand.
IPT: No debt 😉
Don’t you worry. IPT is headed down too. It will play catch down soon enough.
I ain’t skeered. And how ’bout that JAG? Still up 1.28%. Where’s the leverage that these things are supposed give? It should be down 5% with GDXJ down 3%+
Good point on the relative strength of many of the quality Jrs.
I think the issue here with certain negative nancy commentators above is that they missed the epic rally (again) out of mid December and so they are now sour grapes about it.
If they had bought pre FOMC rate hike and rode this up the last 6 weeks they’d be pretty thrilled. Alas…. some never learn.
I actually added some AXU and EXK in December. I also have not sold anything.
spanky if you bought in December, then what are you so negative about, and why are you mocking a celebration when new highs are made? (counter intuitive)
I’m impatient to some extent, and I get discouraged fairly easily. Now, this is relative to someone like Matthew mind you. Afterall, I have stayed “all in” since the fall of 2015 with the thesis that the HUI is going to break out of its 40 year trading range (to the upside of course, hahah) within the next decade. But I do lack true calm and maturity sometimes, and it’s definitely affected my life for the worse in certain aspects (although I have still achieved a lot in my time so far). There, I’ve spilled my guts to the world.
Well, the psychology side of investing is definitely the tough part, and it’s easy to get discouraged with investing.
There are others that also bought high and held all the way down (everyone has been there at one point in time). Than can turn someone rather jaded, but there are many indications that this sector is going to rising higher and your positions will get bailed out.
That’s why I like to celebrate the milestones along the way, as those are the data points that the news picks up for trending stories, and these wake up the larger investing community to the discounts found in the resources space relative to so many other bloated sectors up at nosebleed levels.
Here’s the problem:
https://www.firstmajestic.com/news/2018/index.php?content_id=346
I suppose it’s a risk with all of these miners. Down she goes.
Not all.
Whatever. IPT is down, what, 90% from the top. Being debt free was a major factor for such stellar performance.
Whatever? Have you been hanging around little girls?
I think you should steer clear of this sector since you clearly don’t get it!
No. I am just younger than 80 I guess. Dude.
Whatever
Funny.
If the economy continues to do well, interest rates will increase and down will come gold.
Pot being legal in july in canada, the economy should boom.
Thats alot of employment created.
That might be doldrums to the extreme.
It’s not quite that simple, b. Interest rates and gold went up together during the 1970s and we are off to the same start this time. I was saying it here well before the first hike in 2015 and it’s still true, rising rates will be good for gold because real rates will remain negative.
IF, interest rates go up….that would be inflation, and gold is good against inflation….From what I have been told….., but, what do they know………… 🙂
Today’s GDXJ candle is going to leave a mark. We should get a nice mini-crash into next week’s FOMC. Get ready for some panic selling.
Negative comments on silver from CPM Group with Daniela on Kitko. http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/VRIC-2018/1829/2018-01-24/When-Global-Economy-Gets-Hit-Silver-Prices-Will-Explode—CPM-Group
FROM YESTERDAY’S ARTICLE ON SILVER BREAKING OUT. NOT TODAY. MAYBE ON THE SECOND OR THIRD TRY.
Silver is probably headed back to the 50 dma. Ugly stuff today.
$1360 region resistance strikes again for gold. It was almost clockwork: gold gains solidly heading into the 1360 region, holds well then pokes its head above the 1360 parapet wall and almost predictably has its head shot off, falling back down. This resistance cap has just been screwed a little tighter. I would be very surprised if gold gets back to 1360 and holds at the end of Fridays session.
Trump is rattling The CDN dollar, if he dumps NAFTA, we are in deep doo-doo. Our currency could slide back to 72 cents. So far The CDN currency is on an uptrend because our economy is supposedly creating jobs and our Bank Governor has been raising interest rates. Trump wants a lower US dollar but we can’t compete if our dollar goes much higher. Canada is still America’s number one trading partner but our economy is very vulnerable to the direction that Washington is headed. DT
Better check the record,……lower dollar was Muchy’s idea Yesterday……..Today, Trump says Stronger Dollar
All the hoot’n an a holler’n the last few days… right into a top. Too perfect.
Jacked around by politics…………..but, what is new…….
Spanky – I hooted a bit the last few days, but also positioned in the miners Dec 8th, 11th, and 12th, before the FOMC meeting on Dec 13th (precisely as I told you I would back in October).
Yeup….. that ended up being the short-term bottom and it was a hoot to ride this market up the last 6 weeks. You should try it sometime. (lol)
** Maybe you missed the newsflash but It should be noted that Wed night in overseas trading, Gold eclipsed the 2017 high of $1362.40 to over $1365, and today it closed yesterday at $1362.90. Technically that is a higher high than in 2017 (by $.50) and the year just got started. You were busy expecting metals to keep going down until the spring of this year, and missed the whole rally. That was “perfectly” wrong.
Gold also put in a “higher low” right before that FOMC of $138.30, so the close yesterday at $1362.90 was a $124.60 Impulse leg rally up to a new high.
It shouldn’t be a surprise to keep seeing higher low after higher low, because we are still in the bull market that started when Gold put in it’s Major low of $1045.40 back in Dec of 2015. How you can think we are still in a bear market is mind-boggling.
>> What is too perfect is that you missed this entire tradable rally (again) due to your constant pessimism from buying only 2 silver stocks and sitting on them as they pulled down for a year 1/2, like an “Ole’ Turkey”. Why don’t you just sell them and put everything into the FAANG stocks that you like so much?
If you are so good with charts, try learning to trade the markets and maybe you’d make some money and do a little holler’n when new highs are hit as well 🙂
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p36107254267
Haven’t you heard, Ex? It’s a terrible sector whose stocks are utter trash.
What’s the point of learning from those who know, and improving one’s skills?
It’s best just to suffer and vent.
+1 GH. You’re right. Mid-tier producers are utter trash, I’m going to change it up and put everything into a CD at my local bank. 🙂
“Utter trash” is trademarked. You owe me a $5 royalty. Avoid “POS” too.
I’ll pay you the $5 out of my gains from the recent rally in mining stocks, because….
it is my cash that is trash…. (lol)
Your cash ain’t nothin’ but trash
Ex, I followed the blog very strict in first to middle of December. Then I pulled the trigger on Impact. Up 26 % as of yesterday. Patience is key, being in my 30s i had to learn it the hard way a few times. Ex or Matthew I want to add another 25% to Impact. What are the odds of it hitting .25 again. I missed the last little pull back,being busy with my other business😉.
Whit, I think IPT is unlikely to hit .25 again and consider the current level a great deal. I bought a lot around the low but still had no problem buying more this week at an average of about .34 – which is about 13% lower than the December high.
Much obliged, I’ll be hitt’n the bid…. and if it does goes back down no hard feelings…then is the time to buy more😉
I wonder if it was you that grabbed 5,000 at .335 a split second before I tried to. 😐
Btw, I don’t think you’ll be “hitting the bid” anytime soon since that would make you an aggressive SELLER. 😉
Nice work Whit. I agree with Matthew, that anywhere down here is still great value.
IPT did sell off hard over the last year, because it outperforms to the downside and the upside, but once it gets moving it’s an easy multi-bagger from here over the next 2 years.
I think it would have held up much more like AXU or SILJ if Resolute Funds hadn’t sold millions of shares in a relatively short time. I’m glad it went the way it did, though, because now I have about 20x the shares and its stellar (potential) leverage to silver has been restored.
I missed that 5000 also….🤔
Agreed Matthew, but those funds liquidating positions showed up in a number of stocks last year. There were many stocks that got hit hard on the GDXJ rebalancing debacle last year, as it caused a ripple effect. When certain stocks were sold down, it created a wave of selling, and the institutional investors sold down big portions in those same companies or in peer companies as selling begets more selling in those scenarios.
JAG was another example of where it sold off hard when a fund liquidated for no real reason, and the company put out a news release that they had experienced no material change to warrant such price action. That is when I was buying up JAG with both hands as it made no sense, and positioning then into the carnage was the right move as it has stair stepped back up to where it was before all that happened (really in the $.41-$.43 range is where all the fund selling showed up, so once it gets back up to that line in the sand, I believe JAG could really charge much higher this year.
True Ex but Alexco and others like it did not have the selling that Impact did abd the same goes for most of Jag’s peers. Just look at the charts of Alexco and Impact together and you can see clearly that they diverged due to Resolute dumping IPT.
Yes, sorry if it wasn’t clear. I agree with you that many companies were hit by institutional selling like IPT, JAG, and all the GDXJ rebalancing, which triggered other institutions to also pull out of many of the JRs to reduce their exposure to the space, and this caused a wave of selling in the sector.
Clearly the companies where funds really sold off hard were hit the worst, but there are also companies like Alexco that had fundamental drivers of more amazing drill results, and their development progress building the ramps down into Flame & Moth, and their ground work near Bermingham for their new mine plan. The excitement around AXU going into production at the end of this year is also keeping them afloat better than most other Silver Jrs.
Execellon also held up well and charged higher, because they made really great high grade drill hits, have started reducing costs, and are now dewatered and mining their high grade material while extending mine life.
There are fundamental reasons that some miners have held up better than others.
Ex, that sounds good and I like AXU as much as anyone, but the outperformance you claimed just isn’t there. Both AXU and IPT corrected 57% into the 12/16 low and both were down just over 50% at the low of the first week of May, 2017. Shortly thereafter, Resolute began selling millions of shares of IPT.
Then there’s SILJ. It’s the best proxy we’ve got for the silver juniors and it was down just 44% at the 12/16 low and 43% at the low for the first week of May, 2017. So AXU’s fundamentals haven’t led to any outperformance to speak of.
As for Excellon, I wouldn’t own it here. I think it will be hard pressed to carry close to the same leverage that it did in 2016. It also must have a significant KWN premium since it has been promoted heavily there for a long time.
Re: “There are fundamental reasons that some miners have held up better than others.”
That is always and forever true, just like the sky is blue!
Thanks for the response back Matthew. Initially I was responding to Whit and said “IPT did sell off hard over the last year…..” My comments were basically looking back at last year and observing how some stocks, with more fundamental drivers held up better.
AXU and EXN simply held up better last year than IPT, but I own them all and like them all and that is not a put down to IPT or a suggestion that either AXU or EXN will outperform IPT moving forward.
AXU and EXN had more newsflow that caught the market’s attention last year than IPT, but I believe in 2018 and 2019 that IPT will be the outperforming coming to the upside like it is to the downside.
A few people have tried to correlate the move in EXN only with the KWN pump, but that pump coincided with them drilling INSANELY HIGH GRADE Silver/Zinc/Lead values in their newly dewatered mine as of mid-2017, and they are now accessing their high grade ore and will be increasing their mine production moving forward. It was NOT all a KWN pump. EXN has turned their ship around and is the highest grade Silver producer in Mexico now (which is saying something). While I still hold it moving into 2018, I’ve reduced the position down in favor of adding to other Silver companies that haven’t moved as much.
Here is a 1 year chart showing the action in IPT, AXU, and EXN for a visual on what I was posting about:
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?IPT.V,AXU,EXN.TO&p=5&O=011000
Ex, my point was that, prior to Resolute selling, AXU did not hold up better than IPT. They performed the same. AXU also did not hold up better than SILJ which represents an average. So it’s questionable to draw conclusions about what its fundamentals have done for it that is special.
I did not claim or imply that EXN only held up only due to KWN but I guarantee that there is a lot of money tied up in it because of the heavy duty promotion. Last I checked, King has a lot of listeners. On top of that, plenty of people buy just based on big names holding shares and EXN has that component as well.
Like I said EXN will do well but it is too hot for me. The risk that it will underperform has grown a lot.
Yeah I agree that attention that Eric King gave Excellon and the position from Eric Sprott has and reinforced do bring EXN a great deal of coverage and attention, so it definitely helped. There are some over at ceo.ca that feel that is the only reason it moved, which is garbage, as they had a really good transformative year in 2017. It seemed worth pointing out how much good newsflow and the milestones they hit as their reason for outperforming most other Silver stocks last year.
Moving forward, I agree that it got a bit “too hot” and may not keep up with other names that have more room to rise on a valuation basis. However, I kept a small position in place because of their very high grade resource, as I believe they still have room to do some more bonanza-grade drilling this year.
Regarding Impact, I don’t know what else to say other than I agree with the overdone selloff from the institutional fund over the last few months. That is why I’ve been adding to IPT as it seems pretty overdone at this point.
Stateside (that produces the Stateside Report) had an interest comment this last week:
@stateside – “Does anyone know how many billions of shares ITG has left to dump before the share price can start moving higher?”
“ITG is the largest seller of $IPT almost every day. This month they’ve dumped 1.2 million shares while buying 69,000. It’s endless.”
Thanks, I didn’t know about ITG.
Here’s the golden pullback for who missed the rally!
Not sure what you are suggesting? 3 strikes and your out–down we go? Or 3rd time is the charm and we finally breakout? Cuz right now the second option ain’t looking so hot.
Up or down, “three and through” is extremely common. It doesn’t matter what the asset is or whether it’s a monthly chart or a one hour chart.
Today’s ugly action in the miners only served to mask or distract from some very good looking weekly and monthly charts. We’ll see how much time the sellers bought themselves, if any.
The wise old owl knows something about nature…
Without even clicking on this I assume this is the tootsie pop owl.
Here’s one for the bulls I guess, although nothing is guaranteed, as 2014 taught us. Honestly the current setup looks more like 2016. AXU:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40760882665&a=573545341&listNum=1
To answer that question very easily, all you need to do is switch your chart from daily to weekly. That’s it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p04420335691
Yeah, I saw that the 144 WMA had already positively crossed the 233. That is significant, I will give you that. AXU and your USAS look damn good on these longer term charts. That being said, obviously anything is possible and it wouldn’t shock me in the least to see a price spike down to touch the 144 WMA, just for the hell of it.
If you look at something like HL, it is far more mature with respect to these MAs. I imagine it could quickly retake the 89 WMA (hopefully it does), but it could bounce back down too.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53507670475&a=573561690&listNum=1
The key point from Matthew’s chart is that AXU now looks nothing like 2016.
That such a simple, obvious fact must be debated, repeatedly, is more than a little odd.
Agreed GH. It is interesting that back in October spanky was projecting AXU to go down below $1 and then take years to get to $2, and was extremely bearish every day about the longer term prospects for AXU.
______________________________________________________________
> On October 24, 2017 at 11:20 am,
spanky says:
“Please… AXU is headed to 1.08 and then sub 1.00.” – spanky
[of course, just a few days later on Oct 30th AXU bottomed at 1.11 and then charged higher from then on up to $1.73 recently – almost to his never never $2]
________________________________
“Could it bounce off the lower monthly BB for a month or two? absolutely. Wake me when it it bust $2.00. I think I will be asleep for many, many years.” — Spanky
[as mentioned AXU bounced a few days later for 3 months in a row Nov, Dec, and January and just hit $1.73 recently. Just a few months later it got close to the level that you said may not happen for many, many years….. You’re the best counter-indicator spanky!]
If you really believed it was going below $1 and staying down for years, then why would you have bought it in December?
(makes no sense unless you really didn’t believe it was heading down below $1)
spanky was also ripping on EXK every day with bombastic claims that these miners were terrible, going down the drain, and not going to recover for years…. However, he mentioned he also bought more EXK in December as well, which would make no sense if he believed what he posted.
This begs the question, spanky are you just regularly bashing stocks that you are actually trying to buy, to get them at lower prices?
“This begs the question, spanky are you just regularly bashing stocks that you are actually trying to buy, to get them at lower prices?”
Excellent point, Excelsior.
What I imagine HL Hecla could quickly retake is it’s effort to buy DV Dolly Varden again 🙂
If you really want some extra relief, switch it to monthly.
A monthly close just above the recent high will be very good…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=M&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p58003198780&a=573560218
Here’s another one for the bulls. Can silver do it?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p98177965690&a=573554079&listNum=1
Spanky, if you don’t leave Matthew alone I will have to get my paddle out. LOL! DT
But then again you might like it! LOL! DT
Woah! 😮
Silver looks superb and is about to finally get a monthly close above the 50 month MA. The last time that happened was March, 2013.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24SILVER&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=9&id=p71044802808
Matthew,
in your opinion, which juniors has the most torque when silver/gold takes off?
IPT,JAG,KTN,BBB,DV?
Thanks/
BBB more than doubled since November and became overbought while DV is currently overbought and KTN is correcting and appears to have more downside or at least sideways action before it turns up. IPT has not been overbought since December 22nd so it looks cyclically/technically more likely to do the best in the short term. After the initial moves, it’s harder to say since any of them can do very well. If the action of 2016 holds any clues, then BBB might be the hardest to beat. KTN looks appealing for its valuation and large probable H&S bottom while BBB and DV look very appealing for exploration potential and tighter share structures.
Jag is great and looks ready to extend its gains, but I wouldn’t compare it to the others since it is a gold producer with a much larger market cap.
Overall, I feel the most comfortable with IPT because of the following considerations:
-where it is at cyclically
-management
-exploration programs/drilling mostly self-funded through production
-valuation
-history of consistently delivering great leverage to silver
-89% of revenue comes from silver and half of the other “credits” come from gold
-huge exploration potential and the steady news flow that is coming with it
Great comments BTW. I own them All. 🙂
One driver for DV is that most consider them a strong takeover candidate (and I’ve been saying that since 2016 several months before HL tried to take them over).
Looks like Hecla or another mid-teir/major is just going to have to pay a higher price more in alignment with fair value. I’m happy DV made it off the mat of the bear market and is having a chance to stretch it legs before a merger happens. This has helped underpin its resiliency as the market knows the clock is ticking…
As for BBB Brixton they have 4 properties that they are working simultaneously and they just had good samples on their Atlin Gold and Thorn Gold projects last year, and just got done reassaying and calculating the historical drill core for Hog Heaven with insanely high grades. What I’m most interested in personally is their upcoming drill exploration at Langis — which is their Cobalt & high grade Silver camp, next to previously producing mines.
$BBB $BXTMF BRIXTON METALS PROVIDES UPDATE ON ITS HOG HEAVEN SILVER-GOLD PROJECT
January 15, 2018
* Highlights from the 722 holes historically drilled:
– Hole AFR-79-5 returned 12.19m of 1,089 g/t Ag and/or 2,330 g/t AgEq for 114 percent increase when #gold, #copper, #lead and #zinc values are included as #silver equivalent
– Hole AFR-81-8 returned 54.86m of 254 g/t Ag and 411 g/t AgEq for a 62 percent increase when gold is included as silver equivalent and there is no assay data for copper, lead or zinc
– Analysis of the intervals that were not assayed for base metals may provide additional metal value
– Notable intercepts are 53.34m of 643 g/t AgEq including 9.15m of 2,226 g/t AgEq in Hole AFR-81-38A and 18.29m of 1,623 g/t AgEq from 106.68m including 9.15m of 2,951 g/t AgEq in Hole AFR-79-5
http://brixtonmetals.com/brixton-metals-provides-update-on-its-hog-heaven-silver-gold-project/
BRIXTON METALS SAMPLES 16% #COBALT AND 182,065 G/T #SILVER AT LANGIS AND PROVIDES AN UPDATE ON ITS PROJECTS
$BBB $BXTMF Brixton Metals with Gary Thompson
Cambridge House – Nov 27, 2017 – #CorporatePresentation #Video
#Silver #Gold #Cobalt #Exploration
>>”Making that Major Discovery, That’s What Gets Me Up In The Morning” A Dialogue with Gary Thompson
Cambridge House – Dec 11, 2017 $BBB Brixton Metals #VIDEO
Brixton Metals Mobilizes Crews for Drilling on its Cobalt Targets in Ontario
by @marketwired on January 9, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/brixton-metals-mobilizes-crews-for-drilling-on-its
As for KTN Kootenay, they have been sold down harder, but that is because the market doesn’t really grasp what they have their hands on (since their acquisition of la Cigarra from Northhair Mines in that takeover a year or two back).
They don’t have the super high grade of Brixton, or Alexco, or Silvercrest, or Excellon, or Impact…… but they have reallly wide and long intercepts of Silver and base metals that makes their project still work. It is the size of their deposit and the larger sections of mineralization that will make things economical.
____________________________________________________________
October 13, 2017 – Why Kootenay Silver in 90 Seconds
Adnet Communications Inc. – 3 months ago
(KTN) (KOOYF) Kootenay Silver – Corporate Presentation – Jan 2018
http://kootenaysilver.com/assets/docs/2018-01-18_KTN_CORP_PRESENTATION.pdf
$KTN $KOOYF Kootenay Silver: Drilling New Discoveries & Beyond To Extend Resource
ResourceCapitalAG – Published on Dec 7, 2017 #VIDEO #Silver #Developer
Interview With President & CEO James McDonald
Thank you, Matthew for the very detailed answer,very much appreciated.
Miners leading get that Roeburn guy on here! And you need to get that Dubai oil guy out of storage! My oil stock just went into throttle up! Where is Doc!?