Long and Short Term Looks At The US Dollar
David Vincent, Canamex CEO and well known technical trader joins me today to share his insights on the US Dollar. We first look at the longer-term USD chart in terms of a 15 year cycle. With clearly a top in place the move down through 2023 is looking to be significant. We also look at a shorter chart of the USDU, which is priced on a wider range of currencies. This is also lining up with a move down in the US Dollar.
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
USD Longer Term Chart
USDU Chart
I haven’t listened yet but I already can see that I will agree with David. The buck has a long ways to fall.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=9&id=p18526566781&a=571227402
Considering the oversold condition of the daily chart and yesterday’s action, you’d think it would have started today with a little more strength — but it still might move up a little in the short term. Overall, it looks pitiful:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UUP&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=13&id=p09085958662&a=570974456
Agreed. The Buck does not stop here. 😉
Inflation is getting ready to rear it’s head and that will be good for PMs and commodities.
BTW – It’s nice to hear David’s technical analysis and see the charts to accompany the commentary. Thanks for having him on as a guest Cory.
This needs a Presidential veto, but I doubt it will happen, because Trump has not spoken much about constitutional rights.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/senate-approves-extension-of-electronic-surveillance-law-1516298056
Heck, Trump agrees with use of eminent domain to steal land for hotels and shopping malls.
All I can say about the dollar is:
https://kingworldnews.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/KWN-Adams-III-1172018.jpg
watch out below……
When JRB called for a surging dollar right at the top (and sub 1100 gold) over a year ago…
On December 29, 2016 at 10:21 am,
Matthew says:
Any surging the dollar does in 2017 will likely be to the downside.
&
On December 29, 2016 at 10:23 am,
Matthew says:
There’s a very good chance that the yen will trend higher from here for quite awhile.
California ….the number of voters in Cali is about to go DOWN………..
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-01-18/ice-plans-largest-raid-northern-california-illegals-after-state-passes-sanctuary
I hope Moonbeam Brown gets arrested for aiding and abetting criminals:
After all he sign this part of “California Law”:
7284.6. (a) California law enforcement agencies shall not:
(1) Use agency or department moneys or personnel to investigate, interrogate, detain, detect, or arrest persons for immigration enforcement purposes, including any of the following:
(A) Inquiring into an individual’s immigration status.
(B) Detaining an individual on the basis of a hold request.
(C) Providing information regarding a person’s release date or responding to requests for notification by providing release dates or other information unless that information is available to the public, or is in response to a notification request from immigration authorities in accordance with Section 7282.5. Responses are never required, but are permitted under this subdivision, provided that they do not violate any local law or policy.
(D) Providing personal information, as defined in Section 1798.3 of the Civil Code, about an individual, including, but not limited to, the individual’s home address or work address unless that information is available to the public.
(E) Making or intentionally participating in arrests based on civil immigration warrants.
(F) Assisting immigration authorities in the activities described in Section 1357(a)(3) of Title 8 of the United States Code.
(G) Performing the functions of an immigration officer, whether pursuant to Section 1357(g) of Title 8 of the United States Code or any other law, regulation, or policy, whether formal or informal.
(2) Place peace officers under the supervision of federal agencies or employ peace officers deputized as special federal officers or special federal deputies for purposes of immigration enforcement. All peace officers remain subject to California law governing conduct of peace officers and the policies of the employing agency.
(3) Use immigration authorities as interpreters for law enforcement matters relating to individuals in agency or department custody.
(4) Transfer an individual to immigration authorities unless authorized by a judicial warrant or judicial probable cause determination, or in accordance with Section 7282.5.
(5) Provide office space exclusively dedicated for immigration authorities for use within a city or county law enforcement facility.
(6) Contract with the federal government for use of California law enforcement agency facilities to house individuals as federal detainees, except pursuant to Chapter 17.8 (commencing with Section 7310).
(b) Notwithstanding the limitations in subdivision (a), this section does not prevent any California law enforcement agency from doing any of the following that does not violate any policy of the law enforcement agency or any local law or policy of the jurisdiction in which the agency is operating:
(1) Investigating, enforcing, or detaining upon reasonable suspicion of, or arresting for a violation of, Section 1326(a) of Title 8 of the United States Code that may be subject to the enhancement specified in Section 1326(b)(2) of Title 8 of the United States Code and that is detected during an unrelated law enforcement activity. Transfers to immigration authorities are permitted under this subsection only in accordance with paragraph (4) of subdivision (a).
(2) Responding to a request from immigration authorities for information about a specific person’s criminal history, including previous criminal arrests, convictions, or similar criminal history information accessed through the California Law Enforcement Telecommunications System (CLETS), where otherwise permitted by state law.
(3) Conducting enforcement or investigative duties associated with a joint law enforcement task force, including the sharing of confidential information with other law enforcement agencies for purposes of task force investigations, so long as the following conditions are met:
(A) The primary purpose of the joint law enforcement task force is not immigration enforcement, as defined in subdivision (f) of Section 7284.4.
(B) The enforcement or investigative duties are primarily related to a violation of state or federal law unrelated to immigration enforcement.
(C) Participation in the task force by a California law enforcement agency does not violate any local law or policy to which it is otherwise subject.
(4) Making inquiries into information necessary to certify an individual who has been identified as a potential crime or trafficking victim for a T or U Visa pursuant to Section 1101(a)(15)(T) or 1101(a)(15)(U) of Title 8 of the United States Code or to comply with Section 922(d)(5) of Title 18 of the United States Code.
(5) Giving immigration authorities access to interview an individual in agency or department custody.
Now, that is a long list………..
IMPACT Silver intersects 3.26 meters of 627 g/t Silver and finds new extension to San Ramon Mine at Zacualpan, Mexico
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/impact-silver-intersects-3-26-201600381.html
+627
And yet the stock is down 4% today. Shows us all how indifferent the market is to the PM space. I think we will need a nice little shock to scare folks back in the the space. Now is the perfect time for that to happen.
+4 We’ll get the “shock” or to the “tipping point” soon enough. Most are projecting the 2nd half of 2018. We’ll see, but the real excitement will hit with the 2016 high in Gold of $1377 is taken out on a closing basis.
Until then it is time to accumulate peoples PM stocks of choice whenever excessive selling shows up. Personally, I haven’t seen any reason to doubt that we are still in the Bull market in PMs that kicked off in 2016, and I have little doubt that we’ll see new highs above the 2016 levels this year.
Volume is big ….so this is telling indeed. There is a “quiet exiting” going on. Will see soon enough who is not wearing their “gold underwear”.
haha! Yes, nobody wants to get caught with their pants down and not be wearing gold underwear for sure.
It makes sense after the run up in the metals and miners since mid Dec that there would be a quiet exiting to let things cool off. The question is will this just be a quick reset for the next charge higher, or was that it for the Q1 Run?
Whatever happens we’ve survived worse, and have seen bigger rallies. I’m still planning on a bit more upside before this rally tops out for the intermediate term.
Xcitment starts….over $1400,….. $1550, and you can get the depends out
(GQM) (GQMNF) Golden Queen Announces December Operational Results and Positive Reconciliation of Ore Tonnage and Grade in the East Pit:
January 18, 2018
“To date, the tonnage produced in the East Pit has consistently been better than expected due to the presence of ore blocks in the Patience vein structure area that had been classified as possible or simply un-modeled. In addition, the gold grade was 13% higher than estimated for a total of 1.6 times the expected gold ounces. The silver grade was 8% higher than estimated for a total of 1.5 times the predicted number of silver ounces.”
Charts of The Day: Oil, Copper, Gold & Silver
The Hedgeless Horseman – January 19, 2018
http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/chart-of-the-day/charts-day-oil-copper-gold-silver/
I mentioned the last few days on here that the liquidation panic selling in (SX) St Georges Eco-Mining Corp was blowing my mind (any many others as there were 100- 150 people in that room during trading hours yesterday and today).
I stumbled into (SX) in December when trying to look up St George Mining Ltd (SGQ.AX) who is also into Nickel Copper Gold and Zinc. They have similar names and similar commodities they were exploring for, so it was a bit confusing at first.
Regardless, I was actually considering getting invested into both but held off (and of course they both skyrocketed higher….darn it). The St George’s Eco-Mining decided to get into blockchain out of nowhere and this is what really sent the shares into the stratosphere. The move was startling and I felt robbed as I was so close to pulling the trigger as a speculative bet BEFORE their blockchain announcement, so I was kicking myself for missing the move.
As we so often see with these rocket to the moon launches, what goes up also comes down…..
The epic move up in (SX) has only been matched in entertainment by how quickly it crashed back down to Earth. Gravity …… you can count on it. 🙂
Just thought I’d lay all that out real quick as a set up for a fantastic post that Goldfinger put out this evening that really sums things up well.
@Goldfinger – “So let me get this straight, a company that has long been involved with exploring for platinum, gold, base metals, and lithium suddenly got into #crypto at the beginning of the year (yes, two weeks ago) with a “non-arm’s length blockchain and smart contract technology license agreement” with a Chinese firm which sent its stock soaring nearly 1000% to a ~C$177 million market cap at Tuesday’s high?”
“And its chart looks like this>>> ”
http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d62qt5-SX.CSE_1.18.2018.png-http://cdn.ceo.ca/1d62qt5-SX.CSE_1.18.2018.png
“Chart looks very similar to #Ripple. I’d say this is one of the more epic pump & dump operations i’ve ever seen. And I really can’t make heads or tails of this NR which states that a private Chinese company which happens to be a related party transaction is going to be paid C$150 million through the issuance of 150,000,000 common shares and 75,000,000 Shares purchase warrants of its new wholly owned Chinese subsidiary ZeU.”
“What is going on here? I’m not surprised to see the crash, but I am amazed at the far fetched creativity of some of these things lately. How’s their platinum group metals exploration going?…. $SX”
Once again – Goldfinger nails it.
This is the craziest story of the new year and the chat room the last few days had hundreds and hundreds of posts from the bagholders, haters, confused traders, and people that got swept up in the momentum of the upswing but had NO IDEA what they were buy or WHY they were buying it. People are great !!
It is worth it to keep scanning back up the page for the older comments as it is a great study in momentum investor psychology. 🙂
I noticed it too….especially after it was the stock that had a few off to a flying start in the ceo stock challenge.😳
The whole sequence of events for me was just weird stumbling into it on accident in December, and I was discussing (SX) and contrasting it with (SGQ.AX) in a few private conversations over at ceo. Then out of knowhere —> It’s a blockchain company and skyrockets before investors even understand what their approach is going to be. Then the crypto crash is ushered in over the last 2 weeks in Ripple, and then Bitcoin/Ethereum and then many other altcoins and blockchain companies, and all the air went out of the balloon.
(SX) is one of the wildest things I’ve seen in a while…. It was more of steep incline and reversal than Arizona Silver, GT Gold, Garibaldi, Novo Resources, or the end of the year debacle with New Nadina.
_______________________________________________________________________
** The other one that finally deflated this week was Aurion Resources (AU). It had some good grab samples and rock chips and preliminary work and sky rocketed from $.40 up to $3.30 on the hype train and narrative of a Tier 1 discovery. Of course, EXACTLY like all the other names above the surged and recoiled, they hadn’t really done extensive drilling yet. Well the results came back with 3 meters of 3 g/t gold and all the air came out of that bubble as well.
Maybe investors will learn the lesson of selling into speculative hype when they have a profit and WAITING the for freakin’ drill results before declaring victory.
…… Nah, people never learn….. 🙂
Interesting the psychology/confidence in new investors during the initial stage #Exploration narratives BEFORE there are drill results.
People are geniuses – Tier 1 to the moon!! Then the drill /truth results come out and gravity takes hold of the narrative.
Hoping investors learn to take profits during the hype and wait for real data
(nah they won’t…… and the pattern will repeat over and over and over again)
(AZS) Arizona Silver
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AZS.V&n=200&O=011000
(NNA) New Nadina
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?NNA.V&n=200&O=011000
(AU) Aurion Resources
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?AU.V&p=5&O=011000
(NVO) Novo Resources
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?NVO.V&n=200&O=011000
(GGI) Garibalid Resources
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?GGI.V&n=200&O=011000
(NRN) Northern Shield
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?NRN.V&p=5&O=011000
Zinc story remains the way I like it
http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-01-19/METALS-Supply-fears-drive-lead-and-zinc-to-multi-year-highs.html
+1 2018 should be a good year….. at least I Zinc it will…. 🙂
Wolfster – remember to go enter the new Blockchain Stock Picking contest.
I went with RKS for one of my picks and appreciate you pointing it out to me previously.
Cheers!
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Choose 3 blockchain companies – highest portfolio wins!
Thanks. Hadn’t seen that yet…..find the contest a bit ridiculous the way some people make picks…..under safest 2x people had c.sx….I have no problem picking it under the other 2 categories but safest really???
It’s the “safest double” meaning most likely to double in share price, but not the safest resource stocks. That would be Franco Nevada. (lol).
(DV) (DOLLF) Dolly Varden – Recap of the Successful Silver Discoveries of 2017
@newswire on January 8, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@newswire/dolly-varden-recap-of-the-successful-silver-discoveries
(MTO) (MEAOF) Metanor Intercepts 14.3g/t Au over 4.6 metres at Barry and moves towards underground bulk sample
@marketwired on January 19, 2018
https://ceo.ca/@marketwired/metanor-intercepts-143gt-au-over-46-metres-at-barry
Let’s face it, the coffin lid is well screwed down on the petrodollar and the Chinese are now beginning to shovel earth into the grave.