Gold, USD and Oil – A Look At The Charts
Doc and I take a look at the charts for gold, the US dollar, and oil. We have started to see a turn in the US dollar this week. If that continues we should expect the metals prices to be under pressure. We share some of the levels that we are watching for resistance. Also a couple quick comments on oil that is close to breaking to levels not seen since 2015.
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Pardu, the odds are gold moves down to 1270 and then 1220. At that point in time, I would be able to ascertain whether we go lower then that. The momentum is shifting quickly.
Thanks Doc, that is what I am hoping for.
Doc, What are your opinions on the level silver may drop to before going up and what is your time frame for this, is it the same as gold?
Hi Doctor, Do you still have your TLT? I am trying to decide what to do with mine bought at 30 cents a long time ago when Al was covering the company.
Thanks, Chris
Chris, I still have my TLT. I wouldn’t be surprised to see some weakness in the near future and a move back toward 40cts.
Doc: Are you comfortable with the share price hardly moving to each and every press release, despite some early successes in human trials and potential effectiveness in multiple forms of cancer. I have known biotechs to be in tbe 5-10$ range at this point, before they failed. It is as if nothing moves the price and that it is being capped. It appears unlikely that even somebody gaming the system would put out this much positive info about their successes.
David, I feel you’re exactly right. What concerns me is that it looks like this stock wants to move lower in the near future and that is with news coming out in the near future. That concerns me that the news might be negative.
Thank you!
First Mining Finance:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0kwcNUUeOM
Auryn is on Jay Taylor today (Ivan Bebek)
AUG: Auryn’s recent insider buying activity:
– On Sept. 15, Ivan Bebek bought 41,000 shares at $3.03 in the public market. On Sept. 20, Bebek also bought 4,000 shares at $3.06 per share. Bebek is Executive Chairman of Auryn and previously was CEO of Cayden Resources.
– On Sept. 20, James Starr bought 2,000 shares at $3.07 per share in the public market. Starr bought another 4,000 shares of stock back in early July at $2.99 and $3.00 per share, and in May, bought 2,500 shares at $2.96 per share. Starr is SVP of Communications.
– Management and directors own 18.5% of the company.
– It’s also worth pointing out that Auryn has landed a $35 million investment from Goldcorp, which now owns 12.5% of the company.
Doc, do you have any more downside target for GDX? A couple of weeks ago, you mentioned GDX breaking below 24 to 23 level and that worked out very exactly!
Jay, I wouldn’t be surprised to see us drift back to the 21-22 area. I believe that happens.
Thanks for your help, Doc. Much appreciated.
Happy days……Corker , pulling the cork and retiring….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-26/senator-bob-corker-retiring-2018
must be one of the reasons……..
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-26/republicans-throw-towel-senate-will-not-vote-obamacare-repeal-bill…………
JIGS UP………NO MORE KICK BACKs……Drain the swamp….
Doesn’t Tennessee have one of the highest state income taxes…….
No – there is not state income tax in TN.
must be the sales tax that is high?
Yes. 9.75% but it is a far more fair system to have a consumption tax that hits everyone, even illegal immigrants the same, versus a State income tax that hits only half the population the legal workers hard and unduly rewards those sucking off the government teat.
If only the Federal Government would put in place a flat consumption tax and get rid of the Federal Income tax then it would level the playing field for all citizens.
You buy something from small to large, cash or credit, legal or illegal, then you pay the same percentage tax as everyone else. No freeloaders.
There is interest and dividend tax though but that is being phased out over the next 5 years.
The Internal Revenue Service isn’t the only tax entity with a hand out for a piece of your paycheck. Most states – 41 in all – impose a broad-based individual income tax. Only seven lack an income tax altogether: Alaska, Florida, Nevada, South Dakota, Texas, Washington and Wyoming.
Tennessee and New Hampshire fall into a gray area. They tax only dividend and interest income, not earned income.
https://www.thebalance.com/states-without-an-income-tax-3193345
States with no income tax sounds great but in reality the have some of the highest sales taxes and fees.
The Texas DMV was a nightmare.
Wyoming’s sales tax is around 5% but food isn’t taxed. Overall, it is probably the best state when it comes to taxes and asset protection.
Low crude prices have put Alaska in a bind,the legislature is trying their hardest to levy an Income Tax.
https://www.adn.com/politics/alaska-legislature/2017/04/15/alaska-house-votes-to-levy-statewide-income-tax-sending-measure-to-a-hostile-senate/
All Yellen has to do is open her maw and gold drops $15.
Anything she says about inflation is complete BS. This is simply her way of keeping the yen carry trade going, which has fueled this stock market since 2011. As long as the yen continues to slip lower, commodities will be sold and risk assets bid. It’s a virtuous cycle with no downside–the lower input costs go, the more profitable US corporations are. Deficits don’t matter and nor does money printing in absolute terms. All that matters is the direction of USDJPY (i.e., it’s all a game of relativity).
Yellen has her thumb on commodities. They go where she lets them go. There is no upside to letting the commodity complex rise, and so she will continue to tighten monetary policy relative to the ECB and BoJ.
Equities are about to resume their ramp to infinity in relative and absolute terms.
Yep spanky I see your reasoning. Fundamentals and technicals seem to take a back seat whenever the gift of the gab treatment is wheeled out by certain talking heads.
Its a world of uncertainty so invariably more questions than answers are raised: What happens to the dollar feom here? When does gold break above the 1300 handle? When will the debt can kicking come to a head? Is the Euro still gonna collapse? How much longer can low interest rates drag out? And so on and so forth…
Those black swans are taking their time but I suppose one better be careful for what they wish for.
There is more going on than just the Fed. Hence the three week climb in the crude price.
The question is if Communist China is going to buy oil in the terms of Gold ,Do they really want a high or low Gold price?The next ECB Policy meeting is October 26,this will also be a tell as to the direction of the EURO.
I like Draghis comments on Bitcoin.
https://www.coindesk.com/mario-draghi-european-central-bank-has-no-power-to-regulate-bitcoin/
Tweeter…….expanding …………..more character more Donald …….
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-26/twitter-expand-character-limit-140-280
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p58942434514&a=546838931&listNum=1
Yellen is about to perform a coup-de-grace on the commodity complex. She will be cackling all the way to the bank. The Fed and BoJ will pretend they don’t know why inflation is not higher, while the Dow is sitting at 50,000.
Very unlikely Spanly/Spanky.
I’m sure Mother Felon may cackle, but that is more based around the giant spoof that they pull on the American people every day, giving mind-numb drive-by investors the impression that they actually have a clue what they are doing with their policies.
That chart looks like a large inverse head and shoulders pattern about to turn up, and the full stochastics look ready to cross and turn up as well. They may be a little more short-term downside left, but it is limited. The upside potential is far more appealing than any remaining downside risk.
Commodities already bottomed in early 2016 and then launched out of that bottom last year, and have pulled back in a large consolidation pattern.
If anything Commodities will be taking off over the next 6 months to year and we won’t see these low levels again for a long time.
Let’s look a bit longer term chart for GCC (10 years back) and it becomes clear how low commodities have been and how much upside is in store:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&st=2007-09-03&en=(today)&id=p61065674227&a=546838931
Here this chart since 1990 of the CRB Commodities Index is even better at showing just how historic the Major Low last year and how cheap commodities are on a relative basis. The upside is the resource sectors is FAR more appealing now in the commodity space than it has been in decades.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24CRB&p=D&st=1990-09-03&en=(today)&id=p18873314785
The Fed are pathological liars.
http://www.wikihow.com/Spot-a-Pathological-Liar
Stone…….on record…https://www.jsmineset.com/
Zinc spreads explode as tightness bites London shorts: Andy Home
Andy Home – SEPTEMBER 26, 2017
Zinc deficits persist in the short term: BMI
Valentina Ruiz Leotaud | about 13 hours ago
Portfolio Update: Last Two Weeks Action
The Hedgeless Horseman – September 25, 2017
Increased stakes in:
Impact Silver Corp (IPT)
Fully diluted market cap: US$25 M
Cash: ~US$5.5 M (Q2)
Enterprise value: ~US$19.5 M
AgEQ production: 0.95Moz
EV/AgEQ production: 20.5 (Compare with other producers HERE)
Comment: “Turbo charged silver beta with exploration and production upside down the road. High risk / high reward play.”
__________________________________________________________
AbraPlata Resources Corp (ABRA)
Fully diluted market cap: US$15 M
Flagship project: Diablillos (Silver/Gold)
Resources: ~2Moz AuEQ or ~155Moz AgEQ
Price/AgEQ Resource: 0.09 (way lower than any other name I follow)
Multiple Cu-Au-(Mo) porphery exploration properties/targets: Cerro Viejo, Cerro Amarillo, Samenta
Catalysts:
Exploration success (currently drilling)
PEA expected this fall
Noteworthy shareholders:
19.9% SSR Mining
12.3% Management
Comment: “High risk / high reward optionality play. I am holding this for $25+ silver as with basically every other silver developer. Exploration success in any of their other high impact porphery targets could change the story in a heart beat.”
http://www.thehedgelesshorseman.com/horsemans-portfolio/portfolio-update-last-two-weeks-action-2/
Another new country introduces Nuclear Energy – Turkey
09/26/2017
“General construction work has begun at the Akkuyu nuclear power plant site in Turkey1. It is a positive sign that reactor construction will indeed commence in 2018 – putting Turkey on track to be the next new country to introduce nuclear energy into its mix after the UAE and Belarus. The most recent country to start up its first nuclear energy plant was Iran in 2011 and before that Romania in 1996, but an increasing number of newcomer countries are fully committing to their programmes.”
“It is great to see Turkey’s nuclear energy ambitions finally mature” said Agneta Rising, Director General of the World Nuclear Association. Nuclear energy has been planned in the country for several decades but previous attempts to get projects underway proved unsuccessful. Rising continued, “Nuclear energy will help drive economic growth in the country and reduce reliance on imported gas”.
“Turkey is by no means the only country making progress towards first-time nuclear plant construction. Other recent developments include plans by Poland to begin a reactor technology selection process in 20182, while Saudi Arabia is expected to launch a reactor tendering process within the next month3. Recent reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency4 and the World Nuclear Association5 highlight the general positive outlook for nuclear energy, despite facing challenging conditions in some deregulated markets where its climate and energy security advantages are not properly valued.”
http://www.powermag.com/press-releases/another-new-country-introduces-nuclear-energy-turkey/
Fission verses fusion.
The Fusion Driver Crash Program- Man’s Perpetual Progress.
There is some pretty good fusion animation contained in the video.
Could fusion be the answer and not fission?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rZ3T4fVAzDY
Many have argued that Fusion may very well be the answer…… (and it may)
The issue is that Fusion has been perpetually 10-20 years away in the future….For the last 50 years
If there is a safer, more efficient, more advantageous source of power that will help the people here on spaceship Earth, then I’m all for it.
It is amazing what can be done from travel, to health to entertainment, to information dissemination, and all the advances (and horrors) that the myriad of energy sources enable. I’m also fascinated by free energy and ways of getting permanently past the struggles for Energy sources.
If there is a way to stop all the wars and fighting over securing energy reserves, where everyone on the planet has all the access to energy that they’ll ever need, and it can be done with high safety, then I say – Bring it!
Well said Shad.I have always said once we weaned ourselves from OPEC we would be much better off as a country.
I know you are a big proponent of Nuclear Energy,I am as well. Every time I see you post I think about the disservice we have been done by those who created the Simpsons.
We have been programmed as children through cartoons. People say Hollywood isn’t corrupt,I say hogwash.
Thanks John and good thoughts. Yes, OPEC is a joke to most now, but Big Oil still has a lot of power and influence, and they have their fingers deep into the new green revolution as their next form of domination.
Yes, I do follow Nuclear power very closely and invest in Uranium miners, because I took years of my life to better understand it and realized I had bought into a large hoax painting nuclear power as the bad guys or the problem or too dangerous. It was mostly rubbish, and then my eyes were opened to how beneficial nuclear power was, is, and still could be. Nuclear has the worst PR issues in any energy segment, and I blame the industry itself for not pushing back more on flat out lies and BS spun by the media. Now after decades of that it has changed peoples opinions for the worse and it may be too monumental to overcome at this point.
Growing up, I was very against Nuclear power, and blamed it and vocally resisted it, (like many modern sheeple), because I bought into the hollywood narrative that Nuclear power would mutate all the people, and lakes would have fish with 3 eyes, or we’d all be poisoned with radiation and all that kind of rubbish. Chernobyl & 3 mile Island were the 2 examples used over and over again to push that narrative, and then came Fukushima which became a cluster of real stupidity followed by disinformation, lies, and spinning yarns, but it was successful in scaring the crap out of people all over the world.
The real truth is that if we added together all the Oil spills, platform fires, coal mine explosions or coal mine cave ins, natural gas explosions, people & habitats displaced by large hydro-electric dam projects, or some of the misguided facts about both solar and wind from sourcing to the parts, to waste, to animal/insect impacts, etc…. then it is very clear there are NO sources of energy inputs without problems, people/animal deaths, pollution, government meddling, and price rigging.
After many multiple decades of research is clear that nuclear is one of the safest forms of power that has caused the least amount of deaths on the planet. However, the narrative and people’s perceptions are the exact opposite of that reality, due to all the lobbyist group and radical environmentalist groups portraying it unfairly, inaccurately, and using the media/movies/and yes even cartoons to program people’s attitudes and perceptions.
Fukushima was a tragedy (but very unusual circumstances likely to never be repeated), but TEPCO also did a terrible job of handling the situation from how they had their backup generators below sea level, to how they improperly stored their spent fuel rods, to how they handled the crisis at the onset, their lack of engaging with other global organizations for help (out of pride and dishonor) and one of the worst cleanup efforts imaginable. Fukushima did derail things in the Nuclear/Uranium space several years into a new renaissance in the space, but there is sooooo much disinformtion, lies, and absolute garbage/fake news around that event, the risks at the time/since, and it was so hyped/politicized that I speak out a bit stronger as a proponent of cleaner more efficient power inputs, to point out the glaring hypocrisy and disconnect between the fictional narrative and reality.
If Free Energy devices that Nikola Tesla invented in the last century are even allowed to see the light of day (dubious as they’ve been blocked and buried for decades and decades now) or if Fusion power can figure it out, then I’m happy to pivot or get behind superior options in the Energy sector.
Many of the recent wars in history were focused around hoarding energy sources, or fighting for control over energy policies, and if there are longer term solutions, where everyone had power, it would be nice to take that off that table as one of the contributing sources of conflict.
Also, the energy industry and related transportation industries have been controlled by industrialists and globalists for some time and their cronyism and manipulation of governments, funds, laws, and directives that affect the human family are disgusting to me. Most of the sheeple are unaware of the graft and manipulation in the higher levels of governments and bought and paid for politicians, but those that are aware just shrug their shoulders, fuel up their cars with petroleum product, kick on the light switch powered by nasty coal, or biomass burning of huge amounts of plant materials, and go about their day in blissful ignorance.
Now the insane regulations and policies around curbing carbon emissions on the global stage have artificially pushed the “green” energy propaganda on the world, and it is disturbing and there is only a small community even trying to push back. If anyone does, they feel that these people are wack jobs and ignoring science, but their science is half-baked and has been molded to fit their narrative making it dubious and if nothing else extremely biased from the onset. If anyone spent any reasonable amount of time looking into the Agenda 21 or Agenda 2030 or the Green Mask worn to control populations and take away more individual liberties, then they’d be concerned, but there are also helpful efficiencies, reductions in air pollution and the innovative human spirit behind the desire to improve things with Electric Vehicles, mobile battery backup power, solar, wind, tidal, run of river, etc…
I’m a fan of a multiple prong approach and looking for helpful solutions and looking at how all the different power inputs and ideas may help the overall desire/need for reliable sources of energy. There isn’t an easy answer or quick fix, and it will take a number of different energy inputs to continue to make things work, but this involves helping to create a change to the dissemination of power, the infrastructure necessary to use LNG or more new generation Nuclear plants or EV powering stations or Free Energy solutions. Until the old regime is kept in check and the governments of the world change their subsidies structure, and until common sense enters the equation, then my concern is we will only see more of this lunacy in countries abandoning the benefits of nuclear to foist Solar/Wind on the world as the silver bullet, and irrational political meddling will be gleefully supported by the unwashed masses that bought into the mental programming from decades of bullshit pumped out from the mainstream media, movies, searing and misguided commentary, misinformation, fake news, and eventually the people have been hoodwinked and will fight their battles for them.
Looking forward to more innovative solutions for the human family. Ever upward!
fission verson fusion……leads to confusion …….
You can handle it Jerry.
Was George Bush really thirsty?
https://agorafinancial.com/2015/04/24/why-did-george-bush-buy-nearly-300000-acres-in-paraguay/
I brought this up several years ago…….I thought it was 192,000 acres….., might even be recorded on google…..I think I will try and find it…….
Seems he acquired the ground when the $2 Billion dollars went missing from the air plane that was suppose to deliver the cash to Iraq …it was on a skid , a skid of cash….like who does that stuff……..Obama sent how much,,, $4 billion to Iran, to have some nuke deal slowed down………Got to love the crooked Bastards in DC…..
Jerry: What you referenced I believe is Portugal.
One cannot never have to much you know.
The 300,000 acres in Paraguay is on top of a aquifer.Paraguay’s largest.
Bush Springs…….Aquiferno in the Bush…….
The confusion is the illusion….. and we here at the KER are focused on the solution…
fission verson fusion……leads to confusion …….
The pictures you posted lead to an unholy collusion……
I’d like to be left with a better conclusion……
that would conclude our talk for today…………class over……..
IPT.V nice head and shoulders. Projects to .16 once the neckline is broken.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p01223881589&a=546949824&listNum=1
I do expect a bounce off the the lower monthly bollinger band which is at .22 this month and could rise a bit next month. So maybe a near term bottom in the mid to low 20 cent area. Wonder if Matthew is buying more.
Head & Shoulders? Looks like a W-shaped double bottom until it violates that pattern.
8 red candles in a row on the monthly chart for IPT.V. You would have to go back to 2008 panic to find such an occurrence. Even the bear market from 2011 didn’t generate such a pathetic losing streak. Bullish!
Revenge of the Spankster.
I just don’t understand his fascination with Black candles as they are neutral and if you look at the chart half of the time the markets rally after them and half the time they fall after them.
I’ve never run into anyone that pays them much notice at all, but would love to hear the rationale on why he’s so obsessed with them. (?)
As for the sequence of red candles, those are a more bullish short-term reading, but nothing goes down or up in a straight line, as he is so fond of mentioning.
The trend is your friend until it ends…..
correction, I was trying to agree that the sequence of red candles was bearish, not bullish for the short-term.
My point was that that trend is getting exhausted and a reversal candle like a doji or hammer will signal the turn. (those candles in particular actually do matter much more than the color of candle on a given day).
Tops always look strong and bottoms always look weak which is why momentum studies, cycles, etc, should be employed, not just price, if one wants to try to call them.
What’s with your constant “bullish!” nonsense? Yes, I’m still buying but only 20,000 this week, so far. You should sell ASAP if you haven’t already.
This sector is no place for a candy ass.
Well stated Matthew.
Spanky, With your constant bearish calls you must have a HUGE short position in the miners and metals, and should have sold out of all your miners long ago.
That is…. if you have any conviction in your charting analysis or calls for Silver to go to $13 and $9 and commodities to get walloped even lower than the 2016 Major low.
Spanky, You’ve been banging on about the dismal state of affairs in the metals, miners, and commodities, so if that is how you feel, hopefully you’ve made a small fortune shorting the sector the last few months and congratulations are in order.
If not, it’s all hot air……
Shad:
We all know that if your going to give it,your going to have to be able to take it.
Now let”s figure out how we can get ahead of the trend and start ringing the register.
Seeing I don’t own any NOVO, I really could use some help.
Absolutely agreed JohnK. If someone is going to post snarky comments and bearish charts day in and day out on the commodities and in particular Silver miners (“giving it”), then they should not be holding any Silver miners (yet he claims to keep hanging on to EXK and AG) – which makes no sense, and should (“take it”) when people are skeptical of their belief in their own convictions.
It has never made any sense to me when investors are incredibly Bearish on a sector or company and don’t short the crap out of it. Either they are solid in their convictions and plan to profit on these prophetic calls, or they are full of it and just being negative for the sake of it.
I’m all for shorting sectors using inverse ETFS and made some nice coin shorting Gold, the Miners, Oil, and Volatility when I was bearish in the past. I haven’t seen one post from Spanky discussing the gains he’s been making by shorting the metals or miners so the daily charting and warnings seems to lack authenticity and conviction.
Shad:
One must take everything with a grain of salt.
I welcome the diversion.The last time I tried shorting I was wiped out by Ben Bernanke.
It was an invaluable lesson.
With the Political situations around the world and the relentless Q E from the Central Banks this has a real “tricky” market. I’m in the red,but that does not keep me from waking up the next day and doing it all over again.Mathew was correct when he pointed out that I probably had more losers than winners.
But He it’s almost noon and I still haven’t gotten dressed yet.
I love the market and I love the game.I really love the KE Report with all it’s intelligent contributors. The humor isn’t bad either.
It’s especially tiresome when someone who doesn’t even know the basics is so sure of himself. The fact is, Spanky has been confidently banging on about a situation that is really not dismal at all.
Look at the following weekly chart for GDX. We have a breakout and backtest that hasn’t failed yet while price remains above the important MAs and momentum is positive. And that’s just the basics.
There is a huge bull market taking shape and its good health requires that most doubt it/few can see it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=W&yr=3&mn=11&dy=0&id=p48687328944&a=546967502
I’m not a subscriber of Michael Oliver’s but his approach is a great one because, unlike most others, it is not a “price only” one.
I agree completely with his outlook…
Mathew:
We both know this is when the money is made.
Spanky is a great contrarion indicator.
Mathew:
I will also add that part of the loss has not due to my investing but rather to the fact I’m U.S ,my account is U S and all my stocks are Canadian listed. The currency pair has been hitting me relentlessly.
Good link, Matthew, thanks.
I find charting price vs the moving avgs to be a very useful tool.
Doc, you say we may waffle around the high 1200’s and 1300 where gold hangs around for a couple to three months or go higher. Does this mean gold is unlikely to go down to the lower 1200’s as you opined at one time? In your mind what are the odds of which way gold may go, hang around here, giving us a buying opportunity or are the odds more likely that gold will move higher, though slowly?