How quickly fear in the markets dissipates
The move up in the US markets today are the focus of our market wrap. The fear that was driving the markets down seems to have been very quickly forgotten. The VIX is back in the complacent range and we saw some selling in gold stocks and the actual metal. What we need to watch is if the US markets will be at all time highs soon…
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Good sign…….thanks I missed that one………
He might even clean up the CFTC……
I don’t trust Ryan, although he seems to say the right things:
typical politician …….he has already shown he can not be trusted……
typical cya talk
British PM signs Article 50 and tells Europe to go do one:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4358056/Theresa-signs-Brexit-letter-trigger-Article-50.html
Good for her………..
Hope she gets as much support as she needs……….Hoping for the best….
May is a wimp. She is already talking about giving away fishing grounds and paying the EU.
Gutless wonder.
Germany needs to trade with the UK much more than vice versa.
May should be talking WE ARE LEAVING TAKE IT OR NOT, WE DON’T CARE.
ACCEPT our terms or ELSE.
Corey, are there some mining stocks you are following, which may have the potential for being bought out by a larger company as was Exeter? Not investing advice but curiosity for what you may be following, as Doc said you would be the one to ask.
pardu, look for juniors that have got land around majors, with 2+ million oz.
More ideas on spotting Merges & Acquisitions:
* Most companies put out Corporate Presentations on their website that are very accessible to all investors, and much easier to digest than a SEDAR report.
—[> The reason I post Corporate Presentations so often, is because they give investors a fairly recent snapshot into the companies Main projects, Maps & proximity to other projects, Management Teams, Share Structure, Peer Comparisons, and who the key strategic investors are.
> Look for Juniors where the Seniors have a Strategic Investment in them of 3-20%
(ding ding ding)
– Agnico Eagle owns 19% of Belo Sun and 18% of Pershimco
– AngloGold Ashanti owns 18% of Corvus and 12% of Pure Gold
– Goldcorp owns 10% of Gold Standard Ventures and 12% of Auryn
– El Dorado owns 13% of Integra Gold
– OceanaGold owns 18% of Gold Standard Ventures and 16% of NuLegacy
Those are just a few examples, but the entire sector is littered with partnerships and strategic investors, so this isn’t rocket science…..
>> When it comes to projects, then proximity to a producing mine or major development project can be a tip off. (pull up a MAP and see who the neighbors are). This is not a guarantee, and really depends on if the same mineral trend extends onto the Jr’s property in a meaningful way, or if the Jr just got the fringe scraps left over. If the trend extends….. The neighbor is probably interested. If they aren’t then a competitor is.
The other thing is that some of the larger Mid-Tiers and Majors may want to diversify into an area play like “The Golden Triangle” “The Lithium Triangle” “The Athabasca Basin” “Red Lake” “Timmins” “The Carlin Trend” etc…. So being methodical about acquiring positions in a certain AREA PLAY can be a strategic way of positioning ahead of mergers (that may come from companies outside that area, but that want exposure to that “hot” area).
>>> As for the team behind a company, the Managment & Board of Directors have bios that show you what companies they’ve worked with (ding, ding, ding) – if nothing else this shows what companies may be aligned. For example, if you see Osisko with it’s team working with Falco, then you know that they may be interested….. down the road. When Hecla was loaning Dolly Varden money, and then DV moved into the Hecla office building, I must have mentioned here on the KER that Hecla was going to make an offer to takeover Dolly Varden. It wasn’t because of secret insights, its because it was all staring investors in the face if they’d read the news releases. (that’s something charts can’t help you with).
The last thing to consider is High Grade balanced with Metallurgy or Great Economics & Infrastructure. If a deposit has high grade + good metallurgy (meaning there will not be problems at the smelter) then it will likely become a mine and get acquired. Conversely, if a mine has par or sub par grade, but amazing economics & infrastructure, and will still make good money and be easy to permit & build, then it has a high chance of getting acquired.
>>>> The last thing is permitting completion. Often right as a development project completes its final permits a Senior mining company will swoop in and gobble them up. For example, as soon as Sabina gets their permit, I’m fairly confident the vultures will descend to acquire their project because it is a world class Gold/Silver project in a good jurisdiction.
Hopefully some of these tips help investors here, and may better explain why I post news releases and corporate presentations so often.
Moving forward, we will see more and more JVs, Strategic investments, and consolidation in the mining space, and out the other end of that pipeline will be a slew of new Friendly TakeOvers and Hostile TakeOuts.
Bring it!
Nice post Shad.
Question: Where is the best place to look for gold?
Answer : Next to a gold mine.
Investing 101
So a couple of “greenhorns” stopped by a jobsite of mine. Knowing that I had spent many years in Alaska,they were inquiring where would be the best place to start prospecting for gold in Alaska.
I thought for a moment then replied.A Jewelry Store.
Haha! Exactly JohnK. Look for gold next to a gold mine, or Silver next to a Silver mine, and so on….. Who would have thought 🙂
As for the best place to prospect gold being the Jewelry Store…. (that made me chuckle)
Cheers!
I love it when a property is littered with artisan workings and old processing centers, as you get the distinct impression that there is “gold in them there hills….”
One of the more extreme cases is Impact Silver, as they have an insane 4,500 old historic mine workings and 75 Processing Centers on their land package. They’ve barely started to explore it all, so that’s what I call Exploration Upside.
Impact is starting to catch my eye again. Notice the divergences.The silver stocks have not caught up to the move in physical yet.If physical Silver continues to go,the whole sector looks undervalued.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ipt.v
Sorry about that.The annotated chart did not transfer.The divergence is the MACD Histogram and the price.Also the force index is also showing a divergence. The move is early,but the movement looks like good things to come.
Thanks JohnK – While the annotated chart didn’t translate, you explained it was the divergences in the MACD versus price, and the early changes to the force index. I did a mental chart 😉
Yes, the point I was making with Impact Silver was that they are looking for Silver around literally thousands of old artisinal Silver mines. Seems like a good strategy to me to keep finding new deposits.
Klondike Silver actually has a similar track going on by exploring around the past mines scattered around the old Slocan Silver Camp, which have “Silver-rich lead/zinc deposits discovered in 1891.”
•
KS has 68 of 173 past-producing mines located in the Slocan Silver Lead Zinc Camp are on their land package.*
•
Past production: 68 mines (of 173) Processed 2.1 million tons
* Silver 40.4 million ounces
Lead 349 million pounds*
Zinc 159 million pounds
There is also the same approach at Brixton Metals where they are exploring around their Langis Project:
“The Langis Project represents unique opportunity to a silver district that has not seen much modern exploration techniques applied. New discovery potential is high and a strong possibility exists to generate mineral resources from extensions to historical workings and new exploration.”
> The Langis Mine has produced historically over 10.4M oz Ag with a recovered grade of ~25 oz/t Ag from shallow depths and 358,340 lbs of Cobalt. (see production history)
> The Hudson Bay Mine has produced historically 6.4M oz of Ag at 123 opt silver and 185,570 lbs of Cobalt from 58,000 tons.
One more thought – We veered off the original thoughts about spotting acquisition targets, where one tip was to look for land next to a producing mine held by a major, that may be a continuation of the same mineral trend.
___________________
The point of looking for more deposits next to old mines, isn’t a Takeover strategy, but rather just a solid idea for any mining company to do (that isn’t elephant hunting for a blind deposit that may be under rock cover or in an unexplored area).
Many miners deploying modern exploration techniques to known mineral deposits that haven’t had any new science applied in the last few decades, are actually much more likely to find that “elephant” and they know ore is there, so that they are not “Whistling in the dark” like so many half-cocked & half-baked exploration companies.
In the case of all 3 Silver miners (Impact Silver, Klondike Silver, and Brixton Metals): They are exploring and developing around prior successful mining camps that were abandoned, and then the land was consolidated. For the record, I was NOT implying they were takeover candidates, but just wise teams that have infrastructure in place, and lots of Exploration Upside.
It would actually pain me to see any of those companies taken over at this point in their lifespans, because each of them has district-scale potential and hasn’t even figuratively and literally “scratched the surface yet”.
They are not utilizing the same approach as a Jr explorer that has grabbed land next to a larger mine (like what we see in the Golden Triangle or Red Lake or the Abitibi. Instead they are writing the playbook for their own private district-scale area plays.
Here’s a quick look at the Brixton SILVER-COBALT PROJECT
http://brixtonmetals.com/properties/langis-silver-cobalt-project/
Here’s the blurb on Klondike Silver’s Sandon Mill and Slocan Silver camp:
Speaking of Area Plays – Check out this map of Nevada gold miners from the West Kirkland Mining presentation. West Kirkland Mining is sandwiched in between Scorpio Gold and Corvus Gold and close to the prior producing mines at Round Mountain from Barrick/Kinross and Goldcorp.
This is a good example of being “On Trend” and in the right “neighborhood”.
http://wkmining.com/_resources/projects/hasbrouck_overview/fig1.jpg
Risk of stagflation in second half of 2017: Strategist
“Peter Cecchini, chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald, talks to BNN about his views on the state of the market and why he believes slower economic growth and high unemployment might be on the way for the second half of 2017.”
http://www.bnn.ca/video/risk-of-stagflation-in-second-half-of-2017-strategist~1088003
A Bullish Trade Setup in Uranium
by @Goldfinger on March 28, 2017
For the teranga gold followers
Thanks wolfster, I had read that earlier today when someone posted it on ceo. This passage stuck out to me as nice quick summary for investors new to the Teranga story:
______________________________________________________________________
“Teranga plans to organically develop and commercialize a third gold deposit through exploration success on its three prospective gold belts or potentially acquire another asset.
“Five years from now we would like to have three deposits in operation,” Young says.
“Between organic growth and M&A opportunities, we’re hoping to target output of up to 500,000 or more ounces from three mines about five years out. But ideally the third mine will come organically through project development, rather than another acquisition.”
By executing on its expansion plans in three West African nations, the company aims to catapult itself into the more favourably-rated ranks of the world’s small handful of mid-tier gold mining companies.
This starts with the successful development and start-up of the Banfora gold project.”
For Teranga – beyond their flagship Sabodala gold mine, and development project of the fully permitted Banfora gold project (that they acquired during the Gryphon merger and that was their flagship), they also got 3 other exploration projects out of that merger. The one that has their attention is Golden Hill in the South Houde trend (next to a number of other producing mines, development projects, and exploration land packages). I could actually see Teranga or Roxgold or Endeavour or Acacia going after the 2 explorers (Sarama Resources and Savary Gold) there on that same trend to shore up more exposure to that Area Play.
Here is a MAP of that area play (where I believe this 3rd mine for Teranga that Mr. Young mentioned would come from organic growth). Also check out the list of companies that hold land around them (noted on the lower left under “sources”):
Here’s a map showing where the Sarama Resources & Savary Resources (and JV projects) are near Teranga’s Golden Hill, Roxgold, Endeavour, Acacia, and Semafo.
Thanks for the wrap Cory.
Gwen Preston: Spring is Looking Good for Gold
Beneath The Surface – Mar 28, 2017
Gwen makes a great pointabout the PDAC curse occuring before the event in Bull markets and after the even in Bear markets. Just another indication that we are in a new Bull market for the metals and miners that started over a year ago.
Here’s a good Gold chart posted by Jay FiFighter to mull over:
http://fifighter.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/Screen-Shot-2017-03-27-at-10.50.23-AM.png
A good writeup on David “Deep State” Rockefeller, by William Engdahl:
James Corbett’s ‘Unauthorized Biography of David Rockefeller’
https://www.corbettreport.com/rockefeller/
I doubt many did more than he to shape the post-WWII order–an order that seems also to be coming to an end.
Even though the Rockefellers did a lot of good, they did so many horrible things, that it washes that out. All the Globalist groups from the UN to the Council on Foreign Relations, Trilateral Commission, and Bilderberg Group were brainchilds of the Rockefeller.
It’s time to move in a different direction. …
I would wager that the vast majority of what they have done that has been painted as good either 1) wasn’t good, or 2) played a role in a larger not-good.
When you consider the horror story that has been the post WWII order for so much of the world, and the role that he and his must have had in shaping that order, I don’t give him or them the benefit of the doubt. Just consider the role of their Monsanto in poisoning literally hundreds of millions, if not billions of people. They are about controlling and using (i.e. enslaving) people, and reducing population, in my opinion.
Poison the people, then sell them snake oil.
I totally agree GH:
Create the Problem, wait for the Reaction, then magically provide your Solution.
Happens all the time. The emotional and reactionary human species plays right into their hand almost every time.
– Their next big one is “Safety from Terrorism” where it is the means of micro-chipping every man, woman, child and pet to keep them “Safe from the bad guys”
– The big one will be the Currency Wars finally climaxing in so many countries with debt loads that are not serviceable, that they do whatever their “Global Reset” or jubilee and wash away the debt to replace these outrageous national currencies with the much better Rockefeller & Soros endorsed “Global Currency”.
It sounds like BS logically, but when you watch how ugly this gets as their media arms hype the scenario, the people will be begging for it in the end. Sad.
People forget (but I haven’t) how after 911 that people were universally supporting things like the Homeland Security and the Patriot Act and going to war. It is only nearly 2 decades later the people realized that wasn’t a great idea. At the time I was against all of those things (Homeland Security, the Patriot Act, and going to war with Iraq and Afghanistan) and my family and coworkers called me unpatriotic.
Thank got I read 1984 a few decades ago to understand what “GroupThink” was….
GH…..spot on regarding the Rockefellers……..
Ex, did you see the Aaron Russo clip on youtube where he claims that a Rockefeller friend told him the objective was to put a chip in everyone? RFIDs, I think they call them.
Sounds tinfoil hat. But it’s hard not to conclude that a logical projection of their agenda leads to a cashless society, where our bank balance, and other crucial data, are held on a readable chip inside us. And one can’t help but wonder if they haven’t already developed nano-chips that could be injected with the junk-filled vaccines that they make so widely available out of the goodness of their hearts.
Energy, banking, foreign policy, food, chemicals, medicine, research and education…I suppose they have huge interests in ag other than Monsanto? Media? Military contractors?
Yes, I’ve seen countless info on some of those topics for years now, and as far fetched and “tin-foil hat” as many of them sound, here is the reality:
1) people and pets are getting micro-chipped and its turning from something people would never do, to something they’re selling their neighbors on as “smart”
2) There are Currency Wars and Central Banker meddling at a level never seen in history and it is unsustainable. We are not there yet, but when the Euro unravels and China gets fed up with US 20 Trillion and climbing debt, and with the Middle East ditches the Petro Dollar, the other shoe will drop.
3) as for Big Pharma and medica, GMOs and food, pesticides, and the like, it already arrived.
4) the last big move is hyped up “Green Deception” where there is a huge landgrab and surrendering of individual liberties in the name of “Saving the Environment” and you get Agenda 21 and Agenda 2030, smart meters, limits on power & water consumption, and soon, no rights at all
I don’t like to dwell on this on an investment focused site, but the Rockefeller posts lured me in 🙂
Anyway, all we can do is try to be a candle or mirror in our families, peer groups, and local communities. That’s the best way to make a difference.
Cheers!
Yep, that about sums it up.
I agree, not worth dwelling on too much, but from from just an investing standpoint, these sorts of things are an important part of the market reality that we must navigate.
Gold miners are a bit frustrating at the moment, and it seems that could go on for weeks or even months:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p54489807896&a=511820633
But mid-term and longer the picture looks very bullish, and seems to limit the dowside from here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p89399600098&a=501069308
If it breaks below the 200 week simple moving average, time to reconsider. That moving average will be rising within a month, barring a sharp drop in GDXJ.
That it would be back in the old trading range after having surged strongly out of absurdly oversold conditions is normal price action. Given the bullish big picture for precious metals, I expect it to break up out of the trading range. But it might give us months of frustrating price action first. And it might take longer than my arrows indicate.
Looks like a fantastic buying opportunity coming to me.
Even shorter term, there are some bullish signs, like the currently plunging gold:silver ratio.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3ASLV&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p02710577365&a=497206293
(I posted this in January, and haven’t updated it.)
The yen is consolidating its recent surge, but this is not a bearish chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=1&mn=4&dy=0&id=p39647660599&a=422635193
The yen is up against key resistance on the weekly chart, but seems to have some strength. Again, not a bearish chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p87146502292&a=443807618
RAOUL PAL: ‘Everyone is going to be on the wrong side of the boat at the wrong time’
Jonathan Garber – today
I wonder if a blow off phase in the general markets, like Gary Savage seems to expect, could push the Dow:gold ratio even higher. But so far it seems to be failing at clear resistance, just where it should if gold is in a new cyclical bull.
A confirmed break below 16 would be a good sign for a new cyclical gold bull, as would a break down out of the rising blue channel.
Long-term charts suggest the ratio could fall from here, ~16.5, to 2, or even 1. I wouldn’t suggest betting the farm on that scenario. But a 5% allocation to silver miners, in that scenario, could offset any losses in the rest of a portfolio.
6 Charts Screaming BUY GOLD – SELL USD – US EQUITIES ON THE VERGE OF A SELL-OFF?
by @PalisadeResearch on March 29, 2017
I’m pleased Trump has called for an investigation into Uranium One and the Russian deal.
The best defense is often offense!
Clearly Clinton’s corruption is pretty overt.