Chris and LPG talk markets and European elections
Chris Temple is joined by Laurent-Patrick Gally this afternoon. Chris wraps up an ugly day for crude oil and a couple small cracks appearing in the Trump trade in stocks. Then the two of them provide an update on how things look for the upcoming Dutch and French elections, the results of which could be big market movers.
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Allo LPG, are you voting for La Plume, Fillon, or Macaroni?
Hello Bonzo,
Hope you’re well.
As I’ve said to Chris off-mic, and as I’ve mentioned to a few – non-french – people around me, in the grand scheme of things, the pres. election doesn’t really matter, imho.
It’s much more the MPs election in the following weeks, that matter more, in my view.
And on that front, I suspect the results will be a mess – no clear majority etc..
We’ll see.
Best as always,
LPG
Merci.
European Indices Fire Warnings
By Harry S. Dent Jr., Senior Editor, Economy & Markets
Dear Subscriber,
Most people watch the FTSE 100, the leading index in the UK, and the German DAX. The former was the first major index in Europe to make a new all-time high as investors rewarded it for Brexit instead of punishing it, counter to expectations. The latter is finally within spitting distance of making a new high. It just needs to rally another 3%.
The problem is, the UK and Germany are not Europe. They’re not even representative of the situation on the continent. Just look at this chart, of the Stoxx 50. Think of it as the Dow of Europe. It holds very large-cap stocks across the Eurozone.
Does this tell a different story or what?
The Stoxx 50 didn’t top in 2007. It peaked way back in early 2000, at 5,500. Then it crashed 64% into early 2003 and only made it back to 4,500 in 2007. Then it crashed 62% into early 2009. The rally since then has been even weaker, hitting just over 3,800 in early 2015. Now it sits at just a little more than 3,400, 38% below its 2000 high. There’s slim chance it’s going to hit a new all-time high anytime soon.
There’s something else on that chart I want you to pay attention to. See the “S”, “H”, and “S” I’ve marked? That’s a potential head-and-shoulders pattern that suggests the next crash will take the index to around 1,400 in the next year or so. That’s 75% off its all-time high in 2000!
So, what’s pulling down this index?
France and southern Europe.
Greece is still bankrupt. And it faces yet another default deadline in July.
Portugal has struggled ever since the euro crisis in 2011.
Spain’s economy is growing a bit faster due to stronger demographics, but its unemployment numbers and real estate market are still in the dumps.
Italian banks have 18% non-performing loans, which comprise a third of all the bad loans in the Eurozone. Italy is the next major country to threaten to and/or default. Its FTSE MIB market peaked in 2007 at 45,000 and then crashed 75%. Its rally only took it back to 25,000 in 2015. Now it’s near 20,000, 60% off its all-time high.
Then there’s France.
It’s increasingly a cause for concern, what with its far-right candidate, Marine Le Pen, pushing strongly for Frexit. She’s not likely to win, but she’s progressing and 34% of the French are against the euro compared to the 46% who are for it. Sixteen percent are undecided. (That said, very few expected Trump to win either.)
The CAC 40 in France is the chart I’m most watching closely. It’s been trading in a declining wedge since late 1999.
It peaked back then, right near 7,000. Then it lost 66% in the crash. The next major rally took it to 6,200 in 2007, after which it crashed 61%. The rally since early 2009 has been even weaker, taking it just over 5,200 in early 2015. Now it sits at 5,000, 30% below its all-time high.
I’m watching this chart because its top trend-line is approaching the 5,200 mark and that could present strong resistance. This could limit France, and much of Europe’s advance in this final bubble rally, to as little as 4%. If the CAC can break cleanly above 5,200, then the next resistance level is all the way up at 6,200. A run that high doesn’t sound as likely given France’s tenuous position in the euro.
My point is that, outside of the UK and Germany, Europe isn’t doing well. Neither is Japan or China, for that matter, both of which are near 50% off their all-time highs.
That means this final orgasmic global rally is largely confined to the large caps in the U.S., Canada, the UK and Germany. And, except for the U.S., most are making just slight new highs. That’s a huge global divergence that doesn’t bode well for this third and final stock bubble.
Noodling around with daily GDXJ chart, it looks pretty good to me. I think the low for this daily cycle is in, or nearly in.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73058224179&a=511418140
This is just drawing fibonacci fans from the most prominent points, to tops and bottoms of all the smaller cycles. Like painting by numbers.
The convergence of lines below the current price seems like pretty good support to me.
In this one I have two fibonacci levels, a quartile level, a fibonaci fan, a a few forks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p73058224179&a=511411465
Nice support right at the recent closing low in the form of coinciding fibonacci and quartile lines. The 50% fibonacci level from the Jan 2016 low to the Aug 2016 high matches the 75% quartile line from the Aug 2016 high to the Dec 2016 low.
Likewise, the fibonacci arc gives support just under the recent low.
Two of the forks, however, offer resistance just above current price.
Combined with the fib lines of the previous chart, I’m bullish from here.
Thanks GH. It is encouraging to see GDXJ “rip off the band-aid” and come down and tag the 50% retracement level. Seems like a good place for a relief rally to me.
Gold Pulls Back — Grow Some Cajones!
Posted by Sean Brodrick – Wednesday, March 8, 2017 at 5:41 PM
“There must be an amnesia ray. Because every danged year, precious metals investors lose their minds — or at least their memories — about this time.”
“Sure, last year was a little different in the miners. But we were coming out of a 4 1/2-year bear market in gold. Of course things are going to be a bit screwy.”
“And as the old saying goes: History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. Right now, the market is dropping a beat set to the squealing of panicked investors in precious metals.”
“Never mind that gold does this every year. And gold miners do it nearly every year.”
“Last year was weird. Gold miners didn’t slump along with the metal in March. They only paused for a 1-week, sharp correction. Then they blazed their own path higher into May. That’s when the big correction came. Then gold miners resumed their sprint until July.”
“Does anyone remember any of this? The market sure acts like it doesn’t. Buddy, that is one heck of a super-villain amnesia ray at work. We’ll be receiving the super-villain’s demands any minute. Let’s hope we remember to pay the ransom.”
“The point is, we are closer to a bottom than the top. And I would prefer to buy things on sale, thank you very much, rather than pay top dollar.”
“So to all the nervous Nellies out there — man up! Grow some cajones. Precious metals are not for whiny cry-babies. There’s a reason for that: the rewards can be downright extraordinary.”
“And now, now you get to buy the best miners, explorers and developers on sale. If we’re really lucky, the sales prices will get marked down even more.”
“The best is yet to come. Be ready for it.”
http://king1eye.blogspot.com/2017/03/gold-pulls-back-grow-some-cajones.html
Sean nailed it: “Precious metals are not for whiny cry-babies. There’s a reason for that: the rewards can be downright extraordinary.”
You can say that again………..
Again………thanks for having Propane…..LPG…..
Metals TA:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3Oj0mN6fgI
AlliedNevadaFraud here with an update!
We have a very quick update
Start of update from Brian Tuttle:
Since shareholders have been asking us questions, regarding additional warrants owed to us, under the antidilution clause in the warrant agreement, we decided to provide a quick update.
We were informed on 3/7/2017 that, as of that date, the strike price was 6.40 for 1.45 shares.
End of update from Brian Tuttle
Warrant price increases
Some of you may have also noticed that warrant prices have started to increase in your brokerage accounts. Please understand that we can not possibly answer all of the emails coming to us about warrant price increases and warrant conversions. It’s better to wait until we have concrete information to share and then we can send out an update to everyone all at once.
As always, keep an eye out for our next update!
Jordan
http://www.AlliedNevadaFraud.com
Copyright © 2017 Allied Nevada Shareholders, All rights reserved.
I don’t know how many of you are going through vault 7 details.
It is going to take days.
One thing I have noticed so far,
The CIA has hacking capability to hack a heart pace-maker in order to trigger a heart attack.
As far as I am concerned that is murder, which is expressly forbidden under the constitution without a trial….. Vault 7 does not say it has been used; just the capability is there.
I think there ought to be a Congressional investigation…….This is an agency developing rogue powers, if Wikileaks is true.
http://allnewspipeline.com/Vault_7_Zero_Day_Take_Down_The_CIA.php
“I will splinter the CIA into a thousand pieces and scatter it into the four winds.”
– John F. Kennedy
Dick Chaney …..comes to mind when you talk about pace maker. Wonder if he is concerned , since he knows many of the inside secrets. I am sure papa bush, has him wired.
R G-B on next catalyst for gold:
I don’t have fancy shmancy charts, but just noticed the $SILVER:$GOLD ratio is resting exactly on both the 200-day MA and 40-week MA, and likely headed lower. The consolation is that both averages remain in a rising trend
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?$SILVER:$GOLD
Gary Savage:
https://youtu.be/XeEWv_loNDY
(BLK.AX) (BKHRF) Blackham Resources – RIU Conference 2017
Adam Butteworth – Feb 27, 2017 #Gold #Production
Blackham Resources – Video Corporate Presentation
Very Interesting, Ex.
Blackham is a relatively new Gold Producer in Australia that hardly anyone is talking about and they’re already producing like a Mid-Tier.
They’re growth profile is crazy, but often Australian miners get ignored. If the metals prices stay where they are, then they’ll be sitting pretty, but if the metals prices do rise over the next few years, they are going to be a cash cow, and I believe they’ll consolidate more mines in Australia as they grow.
Personally I bought Blackham in late December, but sold most of it in January when their share price quickly doubled in price. Admittedly, I felt like I had screwed up when it pulled back briefly in Feb and then charged even higher (sellers remorse), because I thought it may just take off if the miners put in another upleg.
Thank goodness for corrections, as it allows one to get back into positions they feel like idiots for selling too early 🙂
Blackham has sold off harder than I expected in this most recent mining rout (likely because other investors with nice quick profits all sold as well to lock in gains as the rest of the sector has been sliding). To me this company looks like amazing value here, so I’ve been buying again last week and this week and plan on adding more.
The video presentation is the full Slide Deck of their Corporate Presentation, but here is another video that does a good job summarizing their opportunity:
_____________________________________________________________________________
ABNNewswire – Jan 12, 2017 #Gold
#Video Interview with Managing Director, Bryan Dixon to discuss the:
– December Quarterly Production;
– Targets for March quarter;
– An update on the expansion study; and
– Exploration update
Hannity 3/8/17
Meanwhile in England a 4 hour program on the bodget and its ramifications:
budget not bodget!
Afghanistan …….Chinese are in Afghanistan……according to zh.
Poppy wars starting again
The Chinese are everywhere…..
Three Chinese Air Force officers turned up at a military show in Orlando, Florida for the weapons trade show March 3-5, (tickets over $1000 a piece), which is a first time unofficial visit by Chinese. They were most interested in new missile technology and communications.
Pay to play……….Makes you wonder , just how stupid the public is to allow this to happen
Nigel F…is visiting Assange in London……..Hope he brings us an update.
Trump’s friend is going to bring him good news…..I bet…..
OFF TOPIC:
In case you did not know:
http://www.defenseone.com/technology/2017/02/military-grade-spy-gear-flooding-local-police-departments/135282/?oref=d-dontmiss
Thank you for this view from Marseilles!
Democrats have a habit of accusing opponents of what they (democrats) are actually doing illegally.
USO heading to $10 (46 oil) at least and likely to overshoot. I sold out around 11.40. It is now 10.43.
1187 gold coming soon.
XAUUSD – The ratio of long to short positions in the XAUUSD stands at 1.21 as 55% of traders are long. Yesterday the ratio was -1.07; 48% of open positions were long. Long positions are 8.7% higher than yesterday and 1.5% below levels seen last week. Short positions are 15.9% lower than yesterday and 2.4% below levels seen last week. Open interest is 4.0% lower than yesterday and 5.8% below its monthly average.
We use our SSI as a contrarian indicator to price action, and the fact that the majority of traders are long gives signal that the XAUUSD may continue lower. The trading crowd has flipped from net-short to net-long from yesterday but unchanged since last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a further bearish trading bias.
original source
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Notes: A newly identified near-term slope extending off the highs further highlights resistance at today’s high at 1212 (keep in mind the monthly open now comes in at 1210) with prices turning just pips from the 50% retracement at 1198. Heading into the FOMC rate decision I would be looking to fade strength while within this formation targeting 1193, 1187 & 1182. Note that a stretch into 1177 & 1171 would represent areas of interest for exhaustion / long-entries with a breach / close above 1219 needed to mark resumption of the broader uptrend.
https://youtu.be/hEIjmyfS9Cw?t=31
Epstein TA
The European situation is definitely set up for some interesting decisions in 2017. It will be fascinating to see how it all unfolds and how the markets and currencies react.