Market Wrap: Thought provoking opinions from Chris and Doc
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Before you go out on the dance floor, you might ask yourself just why the gold “mania” has not reached the main stream yet. Do you think that perhaps a really dramatic and sustained upward move is still in the future?
No, it is called backwardation which means shortage of physicals. People rather buy now instead of waiting for a year for delivery.
So does this mean load up on contracts and hold till the end for a profit?
I think so.
One of these days they’ll have to offer you the moon for settlement.
Maybe in a decade; but then again, it could be in a few months…
Tad…be cautious..they don’t have to give you anything for settlement..they will declare force majeure and the paper holders are screwed…
Actually there is backwardation on the bid and contango on the offer.
But AT THE TIME I POSTED the GLOBEX prices, the GLOBEX was open I think (but maybe not) and offer futures prices were below the current price at that time. i.e. expecting a drop of $10 or so. (I don’t remember the current price at the time of posting)
The main stream is the last to know……………
True Frank, but the point is not necessarily that, but that this au market has not grown as much as it could just yet.
It, has not grown when people plant negative BS in people’s minds for 4 YEARS…..
I agree with the” real.”…I mean real, do have corrections, so, I agree with that statement from Doc.
I can’t disagree with you Muskovite!
Always enjoy the conversation of all………..
If you did not see the ESF intervene in the markets at about 2:40 p.m. Eastern Time today, I would claim You just weren’t watching the market.
I agree CFS !
Was it the ESF that planted the rumor about the UAE supposedly being ready to do a production cut deal? If so, they didn’t fool too many people; after a 250 point pop, the market started to fritter those gains away into the close.
Reply to Temple:
No. As far as I know, the ESF did not plant any rumor about oil.
Well, that’s why the market briefly popped higher about the time you cited
Carrier Air………leaving Indiana and going to Mexico……more job losses in the making.
1500 jobs go bye, bye.
DOC
I’m really surprised you are selling ALL of your Claude stock. Why would you not keep a core position and a trading position?
Brian
The gains were just too good. I’ll purchase on a pull back again even if the stock moves up from here—–The pullback may be in the area I sold but that’s okay. I’m still a big Claude fan.
OK. Thanks for the response, it makes sense with your perspective.
Nothing ever wrong with a profit, is there Brian?
The strategy of holding core shares and trading shares allows a person to always have a (hopefully) portable position , but also to periodically bosom cash profits. This is, of course, in a rising market, stage 2.
portable = profitable
bosom = book
bosom cash profits….. I love it!
Doc, I hear you sold your Claude. I’m glad I didn’t buy yet. PPP looks like it’s forming a bottom and looks safer than Claude right now.
Cisco shot up almost 10% from 52 week lows.
RSI on the monthly chart over 50 and red and green crossover in the ADX for gold. The weekly stochastic 14,7,7 says that there’s still room to travel. My feeling on that is a bigger advance than expected. A surprise move, essentially much like the previous day’s.
Bought back into Theralase today at $.232 (US). Good buy or trying to catch a falling knife? Thanks for any opinions?
Al you know, we like Theralase!
Clark: I’ve found out when I attempted to get out around .30, I couldn’t. As it is, I think its a good place to put dead money. Probably still beats a savings account at your local bank. Think I’d stick with the miners. JMO
Agreed. Theralase is a long term hold. Possible multiples of US$25.
Impossible to build a position, without chasing the ASK, or get out of a position using TLTFF. Shenanigans.
Thanks Silverdollar & Brian.
Al,
I have told you before when we had the last+$100 move (you were the only one at that time) you said to your listeners you “had a feeling” by your fundamentals that we were heading higher. We did.
At that time NONE of your guests predicted it.
This time (before the fact) you thought we were going to move up, we did.
Rick was bullish, Doc was negative, Chris position was neutral.
I suggest you listen to yourself Al and ignore others. You are 2 out of 2 (begore the fact) that called the move UP.
On your core position, I would not listen to anyone. This core position needs to be treated as a cash position. What I mean by that is you take your winnings from short term trading, income from work, and take put 50% in cash equivalents and 50% in gold equivalents like PSLV, PHYS, CEF, GLD, SLV etc and buy more and hold no matter what.
If the dollar gets revalued or becomes worthless, you have your core position of gold equivalents to fall back on during the reset. If gold falls and the dollar goes up, then you have your cash equivalent to live.
When you get a move down, you dollar cost average in. Convert 50% to gold equivalents and 50% to cash equivalents.
If you trade a portion of your portfolio, then use technical analysis to decide when to move in and move out. But using technicals will get you killed in the long run.
Thanks Dave,
I am glad that somebody understands me.
Best to you
Big money is made holding, not trading. I have learned this lesson time and time again over the last 30 years.
Traders never make big money. It can be fun, but in reality its playing games. Your core positions are not for the casino. Let the traders play their games. They scalp a few bucks here and there, but they miss the big moves.
Dave you are sooooo right I position my family years ago and I have held steadfast and firm!!! It hurt a lot but fundamentally I am set up to survive and prosper…these should just go to the casino and then go to gamblers anonymous!!!!!! Trading is gambling END O STORY!!!! My parents and uncles worked there asses off I have everyyhong in hard assets and a little cash…they r going to have to steal it from me!!!! U know they r don’t u???!’
I think I have to agree with DAVE….since, I do not day trade., but, to each his own.
I generally agree with Dave, too, and I make hundreds of trades per year. I generally don’t miss big moves and have been well positioned for each of the rallies throughout the bear market. My miners are up another 1.5% this morning.
Now almost 3% 😮
Now 4% weeeeeee!!! 🙂
Now 5%+
Weeeeeeeeeeee you da man………. 🙂
Guess what… 6.6% now 😮
looking GOOD………… 🙂
Dave, if you had read what Avi has to say about GLD, you would not own it. It is not safe.
I think OUNZ is the safest.
Agreed. GLD is more a trading vehicle….I would not want to count on it for gold equivalent if the dollar gets revalued or becomes worthless.
I also didn’t understand the core investment position being 50% cash and 50% gold equivalents. That doesn’t sound like a core investment position, but more like an emergency fund. As for the “technicals will get you killed in the long run,” I simply don’t agree. Not using technicals will get you killed in the long run (because you’ll buy an hold at the wrong times, or won’t buy more at the right times). To each their own.
Sprott’s PHYS is better since you can buy it for a slight discount to net asset value.
PHYS weekly
GUT CHECK TIME…………..go with what you know…………. good comment DAVE.
the above address gives a country by country interest rate comparison
Wrap this gold bugs! I pulled down another 13% on NUGT today!
Great job Jason. Today was a fun day for sure, and I did a little trimming today as well. I’m sure others had bigger bounces over longer time periods or probably even this week, but I did other trades with these funds prior to late Jan. These are just a few good recent swing trades in PMs.
Some of my positions I didn’t touch at all recently, but here are a few trades I was happy with. Also, I am going to thank Matthew, Gary, and Avi (again), because I almost cashed out on Tuesday, but got concerned after reading their thoughts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, and bought back into those shares Wednesday. (In hindsight I wish I had gone in much heavier on Wednesday, but only committed 50% to the trade. Now I’m back at about 30% after selling some shares back today)
Silvercorp Metals Inc. (SVMLF)
0.6879 Up 0.1025(17.51%) 3:58PM EST
– I picked up the majority of the shares at $0.4440 on Jan 21st, and trimmed @ $0.6220 on Feb 9th, then added more @ $0.5901 on Feb 10th, and trimmed @ $0.6988 today
US Silver and Gold Inc (USAPF)
0.0843 Up 0.0235(38.65%) 1:51PM EST
– This is the new OTC for US Silver and Gold (formerly Americas Silver, which was formerly Scorpio). I had added big to my position in SMNPF @ $.042 on Jan 21st and @ $.045 on Jan 26th, and trimmed just a bit of that back today in USAPF @ $.088
Klondex Mines Ltd. (KLDX)
2.72 +0.19(+7.51%) AMEX – As of 4:00PM EST
– I added to positions in KLDX at $1.87 on Jan 21st and $1.96 on Jan 22nd and trimmed most of the position today at $2.71
Avino Silver & Gold Mines Ltd. (ASM)
1.05 Up 0.10(10.53%) 4:01PM EST
– I purchased ASM at $0.75 on Jan 20th, trimmed it back at $0.95 on Feb 9th, bought some back at $0.9323 on Feb 10th, and then trimmed today @ $1.04.
Argonaut Gold Inc. (ARNGF)
0.97 +0.08(+9.28%) OTC Markets – As of 3:54PM EST
– I purchased shares @ $0.5901 on Jan 21st, trimmed some @ $0.960 on Feb 9th, then bought a little back at $0.8933 on Feb 10th, and trimmed today at $0.9934
It’s been a busy week, because I had 2 other good swing trades in UEC and URRE this week as well where I made some cheddar. However, I had a big loss in URG. I had one wash trade in Great Panther Silver bought and sold it at $0.60, and I left a small position on just in case there is a little more rally left. I messed that trade all up. I also had a tiny win and tiny present loss in Stillwater the last few days. There was opportunity there but I didn’t trade it well. 2 good lithium trades last week in Western Lithium and Galaxy Resources, and thinking of getting back in tomorrow or next week, and watching Orocobre.
I’m really interested in this Mexus Gold as a potential takeout target, and tried to get in today, but I couldn’t get my order filled and then it spiked, and I tried again in the afternoon and it spike away from me again. It pulled an Impact Silver on me….
Cheers and good luck everyone in your trading and investing.
Looks like PMs are pulling back in overnight trading. Guess I’ll have to hunker down tomorrow, and ride out the move back down in a some of these. That’s the way the cookie crumbles…..
I actually had a fun trade today in Avino:
Sold @ $1.0601, Bought back @ $0.9683, Currently ASM is back up to $1.0301
Fun times!
BIG AL, gold news is top headline on drudge!
I hope that’s not the kiss of death.
I am thinking it just may be….
I find it surprising that Japan, Ital,y Spain and the US are so close together in interest rates.
Imho gold is still in a bear trend technically speaking and one better be cautious because a parabolic rise in price is always followed by a sharp selloff.My technicals are telling me that another leg down is coming in pms.Momentum indicators and oscillators are in overbought territory and psar is indicating that a change in trend is imminent and adx is showing bearish signs.I doubt if the next leg down will go under the 1000 mark.Imho if it will it wont be by much.950-970.Imho atm we are in the final stages of wave d of an ending diagonal.Be cautious ppl.Btw ending diagonals are followed by sharp retracesmesnt to the start of the pattern i.e. 1318.Last but not least thanks for the insightful interviews that you give us daily.Keep up the good work.
Don Corleone. Where you been hiding out sir?
It’s very good to see you posting again.
hi shad.I was very busy lately.This is one of the finest bull trap that I have ever seen and the way the chart of gold is forming is puzzling many elliott wave analysts.Now if you bear with me I will guide you through my analysis.I try to make it as simple as possible for the benefit of all those that are not accustomed to ewa.If you follow the gold chart you will see a truncated subwave fifth wave of major wave 3 that started on the 28th august until the 31st december.Truncations happen when 3rd waves are extended.Following after was major wave 4 ;a textbook symmetrical triangle that started on the 31st dec 2013 until the 8th aug of 2014.Major wave 5 started at 1322.Now this is what many ewa are scrutinizing.What is certain is that this wave 5 is an ending diagonal (ED) were wave 4 enters into the price territory of wave 2.Many are arguing that this ending diagonal has ended but if you take a close look at the pattern of wave a that started on the 8th aug 2014 until the 7th nov 2014 and wave c that started on the 22nd jan 2015 until the 3rd dec 2015 you will see a lot of simlarity.Ending diagionals happen primarily in wave 5s when price has moved too far and too fast like golds did from 4th oct 2012 to 31st dec 2013.Unlike the impulse wave the subwaves of the ED are 3 wave ABC and if you draw a trendline from the top of wave a to the top of wave b on a log scale chart you will get the target of wave d which imo is at 1270 give and take.Thus to conclude I would say that a final leg down i.e. wave e of this ED must happen and like I said there is a chance that it will go slightly lower than the 1000 mark to the 950-970 mark.Hope that I have been of some help ppl and like always I stand to be corrected.
Ppl the ending diagonal that I referred to is an expanding diagonal triangle.Take care ppl and good luck.
Don Corleone – Good thoughts on Elliot Wave count confusion around the wave 5 ending diagonal. The price certainly has moved uncharacteristically far and fast.
It is a very plausible that this could still be a bull trap, and that was my initial analysis on it as well a few weeks ago. However, the intensity of this move up and prior peaks and resistance levels it took out, seem to be an indication that the double bottom in December could be the Major bottom. I still think it is too early to call that one way or another, so we’ll have to see what happens over the next few weeks.
For now I’m optimistic, but have trimmed back my mining holdings today and yesterday some. I just don’t trust this move in Gold to go very much higher, and think you and Doc may still be vindicated. Some analysts think Gold may take out the old 1308 peak (and that this will be an impulse leg up through that level).
I’m willing to admit here that it is a very conflicting set of technical data points if you look at Elliot Wave count vs the more simplistic analysis of taking out prior moving averages, trend-lines, and resistance targets. This is why temporarily I have gone mostly to the sidelines and left a few smaller positions on to ride out whatever storm is coming.
excelsior many are saying that gold bottom is in and that major wave 5 down is over in the form of an ending diagonal.What I didnt explain in my previous post is the difference between diagonals.There are contracting and expanding diagonals.I excluded the contracting one because the last wave down to the 1046 bottom i.e. subwave 5 of 5 is not a 3 wave.What remains in my view and what qualifies above all is the expanding diagonal triangle.Having said that this pattern will be invalidated if price moves beyond the start of wave b at 1307.If you ask for my opinion if gold has reached the bottom or not I will tell you without hesitation that it has not.Imho we will see a bottom by next summer.dx is in consolidation ready for a breakout to the upside.Even the aud/usd(commodity currency) is in a bearish trend heading to the support level at 0.71.All indicators are bearish for gold.
Thanks Don Corleone. I am in agreement that a break where Gold closes at $1308 or higher would confirm we are in a new paradigm.
Out of curiosity – what are your thoughts on Morris Hubbart’s analysis then about the dollar double topping and Gold breaking out of the descending wedge pattern?
http://www.superforcesignals.com/video/2016feb11gold/2016feb11gold.html
I dont agree with his analysis.He is talking his book and I dont buy any of what he has said.Nevertheless I respect his opinion.dx is forming an ascending triangle imo.It is consolidating.Furthermore the way he has drawn the trendline is ameturish.He should have drawn parallel lines not wedges on the gold chart.His way of charting is very crude for my liking.
Cool. Yes, different strokes for different folks.
Morris isn’t a refined wall street trader, and I think he used to run a factory or concrete company or something, so he just does general analysis and quick snapshot charting. However, I’ve found him to be incredibly accurate for the last few years, so I always review his thoughts and charts.
I just referenced it because he is showing a dollar double-topping and Gold breaking out, and you were mentioning the Dollar index consolidating ready for a breakout with a potential topping in Gold for another leg down.
I just wanted to play devil’s advocate for a moment 🙂
Thanks for the specific methodology and targets Don Corleone. Best to you!
I’m not a subscriber of his but Morris is right more often than not from what I’ve seen. Yes he keeps his charting very simple — more people probably should, too.
I actually like that he just does easy to follow simplistic chart pattern recognition, looks for volume spikes, notes MA and trend-line resistance, and then moves forward with his thesis. He doesn’t waffle, but is quick to admit when he is wrong and recalculate.
Morris Hubbart’s accuracy on the stocks or ETFs he follows is very good and I’ve reconsidered mining positions after watching his videos or reading his articles in the past.
I see the validity in being more accurate with where trend lines are drawn from (closing versus intra-day highs or lows) and not forcing a pattern to fit the data if it isn’t there. However, his saucer bottom with resistance at $1110-$1111 on the rim was what I used to confirm the breakout.
Thanks my friend! I try to post more often especially near crucial points like the one we are at now.The best of luck and trade safe.
Many smart guys have got it wrong one day or another.It is part of the game.However if one is constantly wrong then something wrong.Trading is not an easy job at all.It requires lot of studying and those who try to cut corners will pay the price.If you are following gold for instance there are parallel charts that you should follow too.The more tools that you have the better.Ewa is very crucial for trading.It gives you an upperhand and a glimpse in the future.
I don’t doubt the validity of EW but I do doubt most of its users (and I don’t mean you).
Thanks Don Corleone. I always appreciate your insights and EW analysis.
Which reminds me….where is Stewie? He used mix it up with us regarding EW analysis.
Hope he’s not stewing… 😉
Kyle Bass’s Views on Chinese Banking:
http://www.scribd.com/doc/298922249/Hayman-Market-Commentary-on-China-February-2016
DOC , AL , AND ALL ! I Will buy same Osisko gold royalties LTD ? What you’re think ? Tank U !
I quite like it. I may get some too.
But wait till it goes back down.
It’ll be cheaper in the summer I reckon.
If you’re holding going into ’17, and you plan to keep it for a few years then ‘all good’.
Agreed
Osisko is very well run.
I saw this when reading earlier. You probably already saw it, but for anyone else interested:
__________________________________________________________________________
Osisko Announces Filing of Preliminary Short Form Prospectus in Connection With Bought Deal Financing
MONTRÉAL, QUÉBEC–(Marketwired – Feb. 11, 2016)
I own a small position
JFTHOI, did anyone else see the miner, MGH and it’s 150% jump today?
Darn! I used to own MGH
inviz.com/quote.ashx?t=MGH
Wow P/E of 1.5 ?
Holy cow! That was a nice daily move in MGH.
I’m very tempted to short some of the mining stocks going into next week. Options expiration next Friday and with many mines up over 50% they are way above their option pain points at the same time lots of traders with itchy fingers looking to book some profits. Hate that we have a shortened week because of President’s Day, so I may sit this one out. Don’t know, will make the call tomorrow.
Mr. Big Al Korelin,
A while ago you said you were still trying to get your money out of the conventional market but it was taking a lot of time. Are you all out yet?
Al got a lot of selling to do but he has to be careful not to move the market.
Oil is suddenly showing 4% up. I think this might be the new contract rollover as the price has not changed.
WTI up, Brent not.
Oil was down to $26.07 earlier but it has bounced back up to $27.64.
Paul L, do you think Oil will get down to $25 or below in the near future or was that it?
Wow! How did the guests on the KE report miss this monster move in gold? Just my luck, Gary goes MIA for the last few months and I didn’t get the memo that I should of been loading the boat on miners. Say what you will, but Gary and Bo Polny were the only ones I know who were calling for this move. Let’s give credit where credit is due.
Bob Moriarity also nailed the bottom in gold.
Only thing Bob nails any longer is giving bad advice. Eventually you are going to nail it when you are calling it on every low.
Yes he did, but to be honest, Bob’s been saying we are at a low in gold over the past two years. I respect Bob, but he’s not much help when deciding to deploy capital.
Doc would be nice for you to acknowledge at this stage that you missed the boat on this. big time.
I hope Doc will be right since I took his advice and am waiting on my buys until spring. He’s been spot on all year, but I’m afraid he might of missed this one.
I believe Doc will be proven right in longer term. I believe we will have a better entry point later. In fact I see a short term topping sign in GDX today. I am no longer feeling antsy about missing this move up…
I think we’re going to take a run at 1300 might kiss it on this leg up. Then retrace back to about this area.
Yep, you just missed a huge move in gold, just be honest
That wasn’t against Al, I see it from a fundamental perspective as I guess he does
I agree, guys; there is no sense in getting greedy. Better to wait until the next pullback and see what the charts look like.
CMC, I hope you are right but I’m not sure the quickly emerging Deutsche-Bonk black swan will allow gold to seriously pull back below the $1150 mark again.
But then, this punch upward could just be another knee-jerk reaction that will iron itself out.
Asia is dropping like a rock at the moment.
Is Hong Kong Gold market still closed for New Year?
I think they are back on yesterday. China is still closed till Monday.
The reason why Hillary is not in jail.
Index Last Chng. % Chng.
NIKKEI 225 Index 14,875 -838.74 -5.34%
NIKKEI 300 Index 242.63 -13.84 -5.40%
Hang Seng Index 18,328.48 -217.32 -1.17%
FTSE Straits Times Index 2,538.46 +0.18 +0.01%
ASX All Ordinaries Index 4,824.70 -46.20 -0.95%
S&P/ASX Midcap 50 Index 4,674.90 -66.60 -1.41%
Brent Crude 31.36 +1.30 +4.33%
Heating Oil 1.02 +0.04 +3.71%
Natural Gas 1.99 -0.0050 -0.25%
Gold 1,238.00 -9.80 -0.79%
Silver 15.72 -0.08 -0.50%
Platinum 955.10 -8.10 -0.84%
Corn 360.75 +0.50 +0.14%
The article summarizes a Huffington Post article in which a “group of Republican and Democratic pollsters and political strategists” provide some “stunning” online results based on polling data:
84% of all Americans believe political leaders are more interested in protecting their power and privilege than doing what is right
81% percent believe the power of ordinary people to control our country is getting weaker every day as politicians of both parties fight to protect their own power and privilege
80% believe the federal government is its own special interest primarily looking out for itself
78% believe that the Democratic and Republican Parties are essentially useless in changing anything, because both political parties are too beholden -75% believe that the US government is NOT working for the people’s best interest
74% see the biased and slanted coverage of the media as part of the problem
71% believe our government is not only dysfunctional, it is collapsing right before our eyes
70% believe the government in Washington does not govern with the consent of the people
– See more at: http://dailybell.com/news-analysis/36775/Surveys-Show-Shocking-Level-of-American-Government-Hatred/#sthash.Ktif3bjf.TGTUNIhV.dpuf
The Doc may not want to tell the exact stocks he wants to buy, but I will list out some of the stocks I have or am looking at, which had the biggest moves today.
(This is not investment advice, of course)
These are mostly silver or silver and gold stocks in no particular order; because I have 3 accounts with different brokers, spreading risk.
AUNM, AUN.V, AXR.V, AUE.TO, MYA.V, IPT.V, GSS, MJS.V, RN.TO, ATM.V, EXN.V, TMM.TO
These are just some of the best movers today, but my biggest holdings in mining shares are in streaming or royalty companies, such as SLW, FNV, etc.
I hope this list is useful to you.
Yes I wrote Matthew back somewhere that Aurcana was back. I believe they may have finally turned the corner.
I’ve also been watching Aureus Mining ever since I saw it compared on the Gryphon Minerals corporate presentation.
Haven’t followed Maya gold and silver but that was a nice 50% move today.
I follow Atacama Pacific Gold, but missed it tripling in the last few days. Good grief!
Yes, Timmins Gold knocked the socks of it lately nearly tripling as well.
Haven’t followed Gold Star Resources, Majestic Gold, Rio Novo Gold, but they’re going on the list.
Wow, Great suggestions CFS! Much appreciated.
I posted this chart before IPT had its big launch. I have not altered it in any way since.
Man that is painful for me to see……so close…..so close……to being part of that move.
Phenomenal call Matthew!
I just looked at the charts of three miners that you asked my opinion on and, so far, my favorite one is outperforming. Starcore is up 22% (was up as much as 32%) while the other two are down about 20%. They were, Trevali, Sierra Metals. Here’s my comment:
On January 10, 2016 at 12:40 pm,
Matthew says:
Ok, this probably won’t be a surprise but based on my minimal DD, I like tiny Starcore the best of the three. It trades at 4.25x FCF (free cash flow); .42x sales; .21x book value and has 5.35x more cash than debt. At this time, I also like that its focus is on gold and silver.
I also feel more comfortable with its exposure to Mexico, the U.S. and Canada.
I don’t like Trevali’s debt (14x more debt than cash) and negative FCF, but the weekly chart suggests that it might’ve already bottomed even if a retest of the low is necessary. It is very liquid for a $138M stock and trades at just .43x book and 1.26x sales (Sierra Metals trades at .97x book and 1.28x sales while IPT trades at .18x book and .64x sales -source: Yahoo Finance).
Sierra Metals is in good financial shape with $15.6M in FCF; $32M in cash and $77M in debt —which is probably why it trades at .97x book value (speaking of good financial shape, CRJ is at 1.17x while RIC is a steep 1.93x).
I actually like zinc a little further out so accumulating TV and SMT would make sense. Any worries about Peru?
That was for Excelsior.
Thanks. Yes Starcore International is a good little producer with exploration upside. I still really like Sierra Metals for the longer term and have a very small position in it, but it got punished this week because its production volumes were down notably. Trevali is more base metals with a Zinc focus and Lead & Silver, so I wouldn’t have expected it to rally as much at this point in the commodity cycle.
Thanks for the follow up on that. Another PM/Base metal miner I’m keen on is Nevsun Resources. It didn’t pop much recently but I like it’s fundamentals.
I also mentioned Golden Queen which has had a great run recently, but was actually down today (which was odd after such a good run).
I still like Perseus & Roxgold as well.
I’m debating grabbing some shares in Eurasian Minerals, and Strategic Metals.
Entree Gold & Evolution has both looked interesting lately I am weighing the pros and cons.
For pure speculation I am looking at Comstock Mining, Mexus Gold, Aureus Mining, and Avnel gold.
There are more but I’m getting mined out for the night….. 🙂
My favorite copper-zinc-gold junior popped but dropped because copper did. It’s back to .055 and that’s fine with me. Although I have plenty, it’s nice to have a stable plays you can add to. There’s no reason why it can’t go to 2 or 3 cents. If it does, I’ll be there.
Yes I feel like Nevsun, Constantine, Trevali, Lion One, and Balmoral will all do better once the commodities and base metals bottom.
For copper I am also still watching Copper Fox and Copper mountain as potential beat up stock that may have a nice bounce when Dr. Copper improves his outlook.
Here is a press release out today that will be a good thing for Sierra Metals:
Sierra Metals Announces Favorable Federal Court Ruling on Litigation Pertaining to its Bolivar Property in Mexico
TORONTO, Feb. 12, 2016
Some of my core holdings and recent trades are actually up above in a post to Jason.
Silvercorp, US Silver & Gold, Klondex, Avino Silver & Gold, Argonaut, and Great Panther. I also hold positions in Hecla, Mandalay, Sandstorm Gold, Torex, Stillwater, and Golden Queen. Then I have very tiny micro positions in Jaguar mining, Sierra Metals, Rye Patch, Typhoon, (but I don’t really count those positions in the mix at present…. they’re more like place holders).
In 2015 I also held Guyana Goldfields, Kirkland Lake, Lake Shore Gold, Claude, OceanaGold, Yamana, Detour, Fortuna, McEwen, New Market Gold, Norther Star Resources, Exeter, International Tower Hill mines, and Coeur. I have sold all those positions though but have debated swapping some of those out for the current lineup (well not LSG any more).
You’ve been busy.
Never a dull moment. I’ll probably sell Great Panther and Stillwater and Klondex soon.
Well, I’m torn on Great Panther. I just didn’t like the action in it on this move up in PMs. I’d have been better off with Endeavour or Fortuna.
Maybe I’ll take your recommendations of Impact or Alexco instead.
I’ve also been watching Kootenay’s acquisition of Northair Silver with interest.
Another speculative Silver that I think is a prime takeover target is Bear Creek, but it hasn’t seemed as attractive as other stocks as of late. I’m still eyeballing it though.
Actually after looking at Bear Creek again, it has had a much bigger move already than I realized. I’ll grab some on the next dip.
I trimmed back even more shares today in 6 miners and just went to the sidelines for a breather. With the markets being closed on Monday, I’d didn’t want a huge position in place, and I do expect some of these shares to come off a bit later today or the beginning of next week.
(I know I know the baby bull may charge higher, but I’ve caught almost the whole move up so far out of late January, and even made a bit more jumping out Tuesday and back in Wednesday.)
I nibbled at a tiny position in Nicola Mining today (formerly Huldra Silver). After their restructuring they still have the mine and processing mill on site, are exploring to fill in missing data in their resource, and the company that merged with them in restructuring brought a copper asset into the mix (which had a prior producing mine on it). It’s a cool little optionality play on higher Silver and exploration upside, but with a developed mine & mill already built (which is what bankrupt the company a few years back).
Here is the Corporate Presentation for Nicola Mining:
It is also interesting that since Nicola Mining has a fully permitted and operational mill, and 2 other mills had environmental/political issues, that they may be the recipients of other tolling agreements or JV projects.
Second they are doing more exploration on their copper Thule mtn project, and it is on the same land as their mill which can process Gold, Silver, and Copper.
Lastly, they have a soil reclamation opportunity that they are pursuing where they can accept and process soil with contaminants and heavy metals for an additional source of revenue.
I believe Nicola Mining is a forgotten about gem of a company, poised perfectly for the rebound in Silver/Gold/Copper. (not investment advice….just my thoughts)
Fundamental Thoughts on Silver.
Back in seventeenth century, when England was the world’s biggest trader and gold and silver were both used in different localities around the world as local currencies, it (england) had to decide upon a conversion rate for the two metals.
So the question was, how many ounces of silver are there in earth’s crust compared to gold? Sir Isaac Newton, then Chancellor of the Exchequer, came up with a guestimate and said, “16 to 1. This number was used for a couple of centuries while exchange rates were fixed.
Interestingly, currently, we’re only mining about 10 to 1. For every 10 ounces of silver, 1 ounce of gold is mined. (Numbers are approximate and not known exactly. primarily because the world’s biggest miner does not divulge precise production figures.) Consumption is increasing every year. For the above ground supplies of the metal, you go back and look at what was above ground in the ’80s, there’s about 5 billion ounces of 1,000 ounce commercial bars.
We’ve consumed 4 billion ounces of silver in the last 30 years and it’s gone. It’s not coming back. It’s not in recycle. It’s in waste dumps, it’s in the ocean, it’s in stuff that will never be seen.
That leaves about a billion ounces left in bars.
Plus there is a lot of silver in coins, silver plate and flatware that could be recycled and available at a price.
and even if production stays flat ( which it doesn’t look like it is) there is an annual deficit estimated at about 0.3 billion ounces, which is eating away at all of this above ground supply.
We’re trading, right now, at about 80 to 1, gold-silver price. We’re mining at about 10 to 1, and we’re in a deficit, which at constant prices would appear to cause stockpiles to run out in 3 to 5 years, even if some folks don’t grab their pile and take it off the market. We know COMEX and London stockpiles are at all time lows. How can the 80:1 relationship last very much longer?
Just a thought.
After the comment below, the S&P fell nearly 30% versus GDM and far more compared to the type of juniors that I like.
On January 4, 2016 at 10:43 am,
Matthew says:
In other news… stocks priced in the gold miners are about to begin a big downtrend.
SPX:GDM
http://schrts.co/N6oBKX
Silver to breakout of this big fork very soon:
GREAT INFO…………on the IMPORT RISE IN SILVER IN DEC…2015
glad I caught your post……………..thanks……………….
LAST +/- SETTLE
GOLD GLOBEX FEB 16 1,246.7 52.0 1,247.9
GOLD GLOBEX MAR 16 1,246.2 51.9 1,247.5
GOLD GLOBEX APR 16 1,246.8 52.2 1,247.8
GOLD GLOBEX JUN 16 1,247.5 52.4 1,248.3
GOLD GLOBEX AUG 16 1,249.0 53.3 1,248.8
GOLD GLOBEX OCT 16 1,246.0 49.8 1,249.3
GOLD GLOBEX DEC 16 1,244.9 48.1 1,249.8
GOLD GLOBEX FEB 17 1,244.4 46.9 1,250.4
GOLD GLOBEX APR 17 1,241.2 42.9 1,251.1
The GLOBEX is saying the gold market is going to drop lower the next year.