Doc,
I definitely owe you that steak dinner as gold did make a lower low, but I may have gotten the bottom in miners right on. That ought to be at least worth buying me some fries.

Also looks like I got the double bottom last week. So far so good. Gold still needs to make a higher high above $1189 to confirm.

I may have gotten the double bottom in gold right on.

http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2015/12/gold-bottom-is-close.html

We may have a double bottom if this was a correction in gold:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/BWYg8E8J/

Short term gold is going up and the last COT report showed
Commercials: Long 151012 Short 159278
Change: +1395 -4336

https://www.tradingview.com/x/nvhl4U8Y/

This is off topic but thought I would throw it out and give everyone a laugh..just received the social security statement for 2016. It appears that since there is no increase in the cost of living there will be no increase in benefits. This was determined by the CPI which the gov’t uses to calculate cost of living expenses.
According to my records because I do the buying and paying of bills…
Groceries, milk,eggs,beef,chicken..up 45%
Electric..up 7%
Health care ..up 45%
Prescriptions..up 25%
Fuel..down 5% so far
Auto insurance..up 25%
Home owners insurance..up 10%
complain all you want..it won’t change…..it’s like all the other gov’t stats..fairy tales…

well, the fed creates inflation in raising rates…??

DOC, my VXX is up 6% with a break even stop. You got me interested in this whole vix thing. Not sure if I like playing it or not. We’ll see.

Jason, volatility is an interesting way to play the conventionals. I’ve had fun with it. The thing I’ve learned is patience with it. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Vix moving gradually down the rest of the month. Even with the big sell off on Friday, I’ve got to believe it would be highly unusual for the conventionals to move significantly down the rest of the month—could happen but unusual.

I really would like Doc to lay it on the line and tell us why he thinks that gold is not in a SECULAR bear market, giving us good reasoned arguments for the continuation of a secular bull market, whether technical or fundamental.

Here is my reasoning fro another post:

I see the current chart pattern as kind of midway between the secular bear market of 1980-1999 and perhaps the cyclical bear in 1974-1976. There seem to be some features from both in the current price action in gold. The timing of this bear market is about the same as for an entire 7-8 year dollar bull market cycle on its historical chart, though gold overshot to the upside when the dollar had already bottomed between 2008-2011.

So gold could have a great upmove on the next USD down cycle perhaps from 2016-2024. That would be nearly a perfect fit. It would also make the entire last 25 years of price action (1999-2024) a gradual version of the 1971-1980 bull market but this time fitting better to the 7-8 year dollar up and down moves.

The sticking point for me is if we have real deflation and real trouble in the EU and Japan and other countries leading to a secular trend change in the US dollar index to the upside, cancelling out its last 30-45 years of devaluations.

Here was some of my other reasoning from another post:
I still can’t make up my mind whether gold is in a cyclical or secular bear market. Oil and platinum for instance obviously have been in secular bear markets since 2008. Gold was late to turn in 2011.
I keep looking at the 2011 top in gold versus the 1980 top and the 2011 top was not so extreme. However, there was less inflation in 2011 than 1980 so inflation adjusted the difference between the two bull moves are smaller than the nominal price values suggest. Gold has been a more liquid market in this bull run with more nations participating, more paper products, more leveraged products and more mine supply than in 1980. So one would not expect a secular bull market top to be so extreme. In the same way, a Dow bubble top now would not be expected to be as extreme as in 1929.
I we look at the current gold bear market, the correction has been less extreme than in the 1980s and for silver this is even more true (silver was down about 90% form 1980 to 1982 alone). However, again, the increased liquidity and diversity of these markets might account for this and not be an excuse to think that we are not in a secular bear market for both, especially if other commodities are in secular bears already.
Eventually there will to be a US dollar bear market cycle and I wonder how it can take the dollar to new lows and gold to new highs considering the mess in the Eurozone and Japan and their increasing monetary debasement. In that case can we expect a dollar down move from 2016-2024 perhaps to produce new highs in gold? I wonder.”

WILL………..Star Wars boost the economy?

Gold monthly:
http://schrts.co/NkL3EJ

Gold weekly:
http://schrts.co/hmIMjC

SIL weekly:
http://schrts.co/di2Bxa

This is an interesting read… charts and stuff as well 😉

‘$25/bbl oil – probably now only a question of “when”, not “if”’

http://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/2015/12/25bbl-oil-probably-now-only-a-question-of-when-not-if/

I was just chatting with a friend who works in the oil industry in the ME and he says that China’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve has been adding an extra demand of 500,000 barrels per day.

However, the Chinese SPR is due to be ‘full’ come Spring thereby eliminating that extra demand at about the same time that Iran is due to begin shipping 500,000 barrels per day – so that means, by Spring, there should be an extra million BPD coming into an already glutted market.