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Commentary on the Turmoil from Chris

Big Al
August 24, 2015

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We will be back with a market wrap at the close as we think this is going to be a pivotal day. Currently (8:45 a.m. on the West Coast) the DJIA is off about 377 points.

Discussion
51 Comments
    Aug 24, 2015 24:58 AM

    Very interesting. The Dow opened down 1000 now it’s only 190. Maybe people feel Uncle Joe will ride to the rescue in 2016. 🙂 (Heard he’s going to run, will announce at the end of the summer.)

    Is this going to work out like the summer/fall of 2011 or will it be like the fall of 2008?

      Aug 24, 2015 24:47 AM

      Don’t you mean Sheriff Joe? lol

        Aug 24, 2015 24:52 AM

        Probably not!

      Aug 24, 2015 24:49 AM

      You really think Joe will announce soon?

      It would certainly surprise and please me as I cannot support Mrs. Clinton.

      Peggy Noonan, a well known conservative pundit, feels that Biden is one of the most decent politicians out there. Candidly, I have no problem with him.

        LPG
        Aug 24, 2015 24:16 AM

        It would surprise you but it wouldn’t surprise me Al…
        Gotta pay attention to what’s going on:
        http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/36224
        Best,
        LPG

          Aug 24, 2015 24:02 AM

          So you are implying that Obama is not supporting Hillary. I would agree with you, LPG.

            Aug 24, 2015 24:29 AM

            It’s well known that Obama and the Clintons don’t like each other. Al, I can’t believe Noonan’s opinion of Biden and that you have no problem with him. Wow.

            Aug 24, 2015 24:42 PM

            In an earlier comment, I admitted that I had forgotten about the plagiarism. Okay ten lashes!

            Aug 24, 2015 24:40 AM

            Gawker has it right:

            “Peggy Noonan, whose uniquely airy style of kindergarten-reading-level prose works upon the political chattering classes (but no one else) like a snake charmer’s flute works on a cobra, wrote one of the most vapid, scoff-worthy, fact-free columns of the pre-election news cycle, in which she predicted that Mitt Romney would win because she’d been seeing a lot of his yard signs around, lately.”
            http://gawker.com/5959150/peggy-noonan-is-still-permitted-to-write-about-politics-for-some-reason

            Peggy Noonan endorsed Obama in 2008.

            Aug 24, 2015 24:40 PM

            Okay, but I still read here material. Of late, she has made some interesting comments about Mrs Clinton. Regarding endorsing Obama, there were a lot of rather serious folks who did that as I remember.

            Remember I was called a racist because I did not vote for him!

            Aug 24, 2015 24:17 PM

            Al, I can’t believe Noonan’s opinion of Biden and that you have no problem with him. Wow.

            That Big Al, he is such a kidder! 🙂 Sometimes I think he says things just to see how we will react! 🙂

            Aug 24, 2015 24:22 PM

            I read it myself.

            I am also getting more than a little sick and tired of politics and the associated emotions. Aren’t you Eddie?. I will probably not look at this movie for at least the next six months.

            Aug 24, 2015 24:20 PM

            I hope you’re right! 🙂

            Aug 24, 2015 24:07 PM

            I hope you’re right! 🙂

            So do I, but to be honest, I think I am wrong.

            Aug 24, 2015 24:18 PM

            I agree, I wish you weren’t wrong but I think you are! 😮

            Aug 24, 2015 24:15 PM

            Regarding selling my options today?

            Aug 24, 2015 24:16 PM

            No one who would endorse Obama is “serious” or worth listening to in my opinion.

        Aug 24, 2015 24:03 AM

        Al, they are saying Biden only wants a one term presidency so Obama can finish his agenda. Who do you think will be driving the bus if he gets in ?

          Aug 24, 2015 24:44 PM

          I would wager that there is absolutely no love lost between the two of them!

        CFS
        Aug 24, 2015 24:28 PM

        With respect, I believe you have forgotten that Mr. Biden is not an honest person.
        His history is rife with plagiarism. (From schooldays through his 1988 Presidential bid.) To me that is a sign of a weak mind as well as lacking moral values.

        http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/history_lesson/2008/08/the_write_stuff.html
        (My apologies for straying off investment concepts.)

          Aug 24, 2015 24:04 PM

          Agreed. Biden probably wouldn’t be as bad as Hillary but he’d still be awful as President. And of course he can’t be trusted and is a liar (but that is true for 99.9% of all politicians).

            Aug 24, 2015 24:23 PM

            99.9% is the key.

            Honestly, Mrs Clinton simply scares the daylights out of me.

          Aug 24, 2015 24:52 PM

          “Tricks and treachery are the practice of fools, that don’t have brains enough to be honest.”
          —Benjamin Franklin

          Aug 24, 2015 24:32 PM

          Okay, Professor, I stand corrected as I had completely forgotten about that!

      Aug 24, 2015 24:05 AM

      Who do you mean? Stalin?

        Aug 24, 2015 24:33 AM

        No, but pretty close. 🙂

    Aug 24, 2015 24:05 AM

    excuse me but Gary was talking about mining stocks.. Chris is talking the S&P stocks…

    CFS
    Aug 24, 2015 24:14 AM

    The Euro is a very dangerous currency to hold long, in the long run. While Greece has received an interim bailout loan, it is only a band-aid and Greece will default eventually. Anything else is mathematically impossible.

      Aug 24, 2015 24:28 AM

      Very true…once this all runs its course, it might be a good play to short the euro again

        Aug 24, 2015 24:44 AM

        We can see how the market cheated a great many people today though who would have set up trades last week based on long dollars and bonds while short the indices and some commodities. To their great surprise the gains would have been offset by dollar losses in a lot of cases ruining the plan ingrained in the markets psyche the dollar ALWAYS rises during capital flight scenarios and major sell-offs.

        Mrs Market is a wicked mistress.

          Aug 24, 2015 24:50 AM

          Yes, she certainly is a “wicked mistress:!

      Aug 24, 2015 24:12 AM

      Pretty much agree. Long term Greece has to default. How long would it take? Well in 1929 the Young Conference assumed that Germany could pay $30 billion to the Allies over 58 years of war reparations payments. Months later the stock markets crashed and by 1932/33 that whole thing was thrown out of the window. Total repayments were about 15% of the total – and that took the whole of the 1920s and the first part of the 1930s for them to pay $4.5 billion out of the $30bn. ($30bn inthe 1920s is at least $1 trillion today I reckon. If you value it by gold it would be $1.6 trillion).

      I don’t know to what extent the debt forgiveness helped to cause the failure of the banking systems in 1931-33. It seems that the systemic failure was already underway by Credit Anstalt failure in Austria in 1931 and the debt forgiveness didn’t start until 1932.

      This time I don’t think the system can stand a default by even a smaller country like Greece. To many CDSs around.

      So it’s ultimately worse than the 1930s because of the sophistry of the central bankers once people actually get scared. They never really got scared in 2008, just a little bit.

        Aug 24, 2015 24:58 AM

        I would have to agree Silverbug Dave.

    Aug 24, 2015 24:18 AM

    So repeat after me: ‘I am mentally enslaved moron’. See Mark Dice on SGT….

    http://sgtreport.com/

      Aug 24, 2015 24:51 AM

      Okay, “I am not a mentally enslaved moron”. I look at the financial environment very realistically.

    Aug 24, 2015 24:21 AM

    China is going to flood their economy with fiats. Now how well do you think that is going to work out?

    China plans more steps to boost bank lending
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-plans-more-steps-to-boost-bank-lending-2015-08-23

      Aug 24, 2015 24:29 AM

      It will work out the same as it has for the Fed and the ECB; won’t do much for economic growth, but will delay (or at best draw out) the inevitable deflation/readjustment for financial assets and bad debts.

        Aug 24, 2015 24:02 PM

        I agree. The powers that be in China tried to prevent their stock market implosion and had they heads handed to them. It will be like that for this, too.

      Aug 24, 2015 24:30 AM

      The only way China, and the BRICs more broadly, eventually truly do extricate themselves from all this is to completely break away from Western-style fractional reserve banking and to a true system of social credit for THEIR new banking/trade arrangements. Otherwise they will, too, be doomed to this boom/bust pattern.

    Aug 24, 2015 24:48 AM

    Took my 26% profits shorting the S&P today. SPXS

    Aug 24, 2015 24:09 AM

    Currency wars…………the dong has sounded………cfs mentioned this last week….

    Aug 24, 2015 24:15 AM

    Hello…………DOW was down 1000 pt. THAT WAS BIG……any day the move is that BIG, one needs to wake up.

      Aug 24, 2015 24:00 AM

      I am certainly awake now!

    Aug 24, 2015 24:35 AM

    regarding the stock market–they always rebound on Mondays. This dollar drop is nothing but noise. It may even go to 90 and gold to 1220. However, in the next 4 to 6 months, gold will continue its downtrend to the $800 area and the dollar will become a safe haven for worldwide investors. This is just a shakeout. The dollars going to $120. A global commodity collapse is just starting.

      Aug 24, 2015 24:59 AM

      I am not so sure about that Velma. I am looking at what is happening in the resources as a bottoming process rather than the start of another crash a lot lower. I will admit though that none of us really knows just how much further the declines could take us if we really do hit a global deflationary rock in the water.

      Its kind of funny though….today I read a commentary from an analyst overseas (England I think) who was announcing the end of the commodity supercycle and I just about fell off my chair laughing and spitting up coffee. I showed my wife and we both had a damn good laugh.

      I mean COME ON!!! Where the heck has that guy been the last 4 years.

      I was laughing because he made those remarks on literally the exact date that the CRB index hit its 15 year bottom! Too stupid for words. So maybe the guy is a little late to the party and a little out of touch but meanwhile I am already feeling optimism the end of the commodity bear is concluding.

      Doc is a pretty good judge of technical charts though and I have learned to trust his judgement. Maybe he is correct we trade sideways for awhile and 2016 is when the major upturn begins.

        Aug 24, 2015 24:36 PM

        The end of the commodity super cycle today. Is his name, by chance, Rip Van Winkle?

          Aug 24, 2015 24:06 PM

          Might be one of the Seven Dwarfs. Dopey or Sleepy I think.

    CFS
    Aug 24, 2015 24:33 PM

    May I ask why people make comments like “gold will go to $800 or such, without giving a reason as to why they believe that?

    Opinions are free, but logic is priceless.

      Aug 24, 2015 24:44 PM

      I figure WTI is at its bottom CFS and starts to rise tomorrow. Any thoughts?

      Aug 24, 2015 24:26 PM

      Amen and amen, Professor!