Also, the best analysis in the gold trade here is Gary Savage
at this current time. Recommend subscribing to his valuable
work.

As far as posters on this site Matthew is in the 10 spot here.
He’s the best of the best. He too, called the low here a few
weeks ago and was buying here as I was in Dec, 2013 where
I backed up a huge fleet of trucks 400 % long.

Maybe Matthew can enlighten the board as to the current
situation in the gold trade. Don’t know what that is, but know
so far he is making a ton of ching $$.

If you want help that’s the best advise I can offer on this board.

Not investment advise only my opinion. Nothing more. No debates.
Please…do your own D&D. Thank you.

HH.in actuality I agree with your overall thesis from my skills, experience and information I receive that are all invaluable.
However,this is a discussion board and you don’t want to discuss or share but dictate what you think.
You are not helping or convincing anybody of anything being a cheerleader without any factual substance behind it other than blowing your horn.
The pm sector & participants have been obliterated so try to be specific when you get on the soapbox or give it a rest.IMVHO,of course.

Thanks Matt.

Heavy, don’t get angry. This is a discussion board.

Matt, this is a discussion. Agreed.

However, you are implementing rules that don’t apply.

I never saw a sign posted. ….please obey Matts rules.

If I want to confid my indepth analysis to you, I will.

Now if you will excuse me. I want away from any rules
that you seem to assume exist.

This is not your site and nor do any of your rules apply.

END. Stop wasting my time.

HH, hopefully someday I can be in the top 10 as well :). Im a new comer but since ive been here ive done well. I also agree with Matt in the sense that if you know something why not share a chart or two? Sharing is caring and you seem like a good guy!

I also agree that gary’s work followed by docs is second to none.

By the way does anyone in here including hh, al, cory, matt, bird, etc know exactly what type of cycle system Garys uses? I would really like if that could be shared and where one could study it? Seems there is no other person that follows that cycle the way he does that I know of.

Thank you

He has explained it a number of time and will do it again.

Gary is in the 10 spot. Doc. can be too wishy washy.
Does too much nibbling and he’s already way off thinking
prices would move lower. Big loser. Hardly any skin in the
game. Can’t make fortunes like that.

Thanks Dennis. I also appreciate what you are getting at from the point of view that a large monetary response should under normal circumstances result in inflation. The missing ingredient though is demand for credit and most particularly demand for credit associated with consumption. A second component is gross indebtedness which at this time is historically high by all measures.

What I am looking at to help determine which is the real hazard to our economic health are charts of debt, money velocity, interest rates, employment and money supply amongst others. For example, the last time we were even close to current levels of debt as a percentage of GDP was in the early days of the Great Depression itself.

The United States last saw a peak for that metric during 1933 when debt to GDP hit an incredible 300% after having gone parabolic following the crash of 1929. For perspective, we are now sitting at a debt/GDP figure closer to 400% after a similar parabolic move that began in the mid 1990’s.

That chart looks to me suggestively like we will see something closer to 500% before it completes the cycle and means we are not even near to being out of the woods where deflation threats still rule the lands.

Another chart is velocity of money. Similar to the chart mentioned above, it is notable that current rates of velocity are approaching those only seen during the last Great Depression. At that time the low point was reached when velocity fell to 1.17 in 1932 which marked the onset of that stressful period.

We are currently seeing velocity around 1.5 during June 2014 but the rate is still falling and tells me we will probably hit the 1932 low point or fall below it within a years time. This part of the cycle cannot have yet completed despite the fact that M3 money supply is still on the rise. This is one of the key areas where QE has failed to reignite our economy.

So those two items above should be cause for serious concern.

We need to keep in mind at all times that the depression was marked by a collapse in asset values and subsequent defaults on debt. Those worries are growing at this time and threaten to destabilize the global economy as the effect was ultimately manifest in sovereign debt failures.

On the domestic front though, home prices plummeted up to 85% in some districts. Homes and lands could not be sold at any price in many cases. Unemployment raged. Farms were lost across the country and millions of people were displaced as a result. Foreclosure, repossession and bankruptcy were the words of the day.

Now, you may wonder if it is any coincidence that stocks and bonds also peaked just prior to or following the crash of 29. During the 1930’s and into the 40’s, similar to today, bonds were going negative real yield on maturity. Asset values in this case had topped and then crashed whereas bond yield had gone below zero in real terms. During the years subsequent to the crash of 29, collateral based on real estate assets was utterly destroyed as employment suffered and in the process took down some of the biggest banks in the country.

So these things are all related.

When we see stock markets rising to historical and unprecedented highs, debt to GDP numbers exceeding the worst ratios in history, bond yields falling to lows rarely seen before the last Great Depression, velocity of money also on its way to Great Depression levels and housing threatening to mean revert (for a second attempt at bottoming)…..we know we are not in our grandfathers garden variety recession anymore.

These are frankly disturbing long cycle trends that tell us a great danger lies ahead. That a deflationary crash is inevitable. The mantra that we must inflate of die is merely one expressed in our hearts more as a hope and prayer than a reality the current trend can be reversed. We just pray that the powers that be can reverse the momentum that now carries us towards a most worrisome conclusion to our past debt accumulations.

The key to all of this is debt of course. Rick Ackerman has wisely pointed out the obvious on many occasions here at the Korelin Report and I certainly side with his assessment. Very few agree with him. So perhaps we need to revisit one of the themes that resonates best with those in the hard money camp to help this all make better sense.

You cannot resolve a debt problem by going deeper into debt.

Maybe that is all we need to know. It is thematically the basis of the idea that tells us why monetary intervention at this point in the debt cycle is actually an act that brings about a deflationary conclusion and not one that will save our hides though a burst of inflationary propulsion and well being. The long-run business cycle cannot be prevented from reaching its natural conclusion but can only be temporarily averted and moved off its usual course.

And just as an aside…..the ONLY reason gold had traction during the last depression was because the US Government put a floor under prices and then set about buying up all the gold the domestic mines could produce at a fixed higher value. If not for that single major act then it is improbable gold would have done as well as it did.

The simple fact remains that miners of the day performed well above expectations because of Federal Government edicts that made their product (gold) exceptionally valuable during a period of economic crisis and thus the cost of production differentials fed through to bottom line profits.

In other words, policy decisions and policy decisions alone made gold shine during the Depression. Those actions amounted to favoritism towards a particular sector based on old models of what money should be made up of. We should not expect that part of history to repeat in a modern electronic and fiat currency world. Especially while the US Dollar continues to be the worlds premiere reserve currency.

We’re you an economics professor in an earlier life?

Too many words? I had free time on the weekend.

Absolutely Al. To my knowledge Rick is the only guest here who addresses this subject with clarity. Look, if it was so easy to evaporate debts with the use of the printing press would it not have been done already since the Credit Crisis? Countries may want to devalue currencies but most are not interested in destroying their economies in the process. Even Japan is now looking at ways to exit its QE program. So what we have here is a stinking pile of unrepayable debts accumulating across most of the developed world and they are about to meet the new demands of unfunded liabilities for which insufficient resources and taxes exist to pay them. We have defaults coming although when they strike is not known. The weaker countries of South America and Eastern Europe could easily trigger a crisis that sets off contagion exactly as we saw during the last Great Depression. The Sovereign defaults issue is one of the major features at the termination of the end of a long credit cycle. We are there now so must monitor closely as that risk is so dangerous to our investments.

Maybe ask Rick what he thinks of my views. I imagine he has a lot to say to bolster the position I have taken.

Gator ,,,I thought they needed a basket full of …..thoughts……

Gator………got ya…………hope your week is full of joy, and prosperity……

RED NECKS…………the backbone of AMERICA……….

You all keep bringing up religion…theses people are mentally damaged…period…they need help and they need to be removed from society and properly treated…but who has the time/patience/money for that?

Excellent point Tom!

Agree, religion has nothing to do with this. It is always about power and control.

Yep power desired by the Christians, the Jews, the Muslims and the list goes on!

Jay……….you can not judge…………because you are of NO FAITH……
You only are judging,,,,,,by actions of lip service OF PRETEND so called Christians,,,,,which they most likely are not………..IT real easy to understand………….YOU WILL KNOW THEM BY THEIR FRUITS(ACTIONS)…….WHICH IS BASIC AS IT GETS…which is.. ……..LOVE THEY NEIGHBOR AS THEY SELF..

Yes it is purely that simple.

I guess that I am back to being wise because I do believe!

j…
I think that was my point, in that these so-called muslims (isis)are in no way living as muslims by doing ehat they are doing, ergo this is nothing but propaganda by the west to be labeling this a muslim issue. There are mentally deranged on both sides of these religions none of whom practice their religions as to their gospel / initial intent

I have to agree with you Jay

Jay……thanks for the follow up……….appreciate…thanks for clearing up…..J….

I don” t believe that they learned their philosophy from Christians.

And don’t forget those damned Catholics!

Next…..do a study on the Crusades……..who were they financed by?

The New Testament has little to do with the Reformation except that the different “clubs” that resulted in different meeting places and different “secret handshakes”.

consider this though, imagine living in a muslim country where media and propaganda are reversed, most likely you would be wstching news portraying Christianity as proclaimed by the likes of Westborough Baptist.. or painting Christianity with one brush by taking doc.s like Jesus camp which dispalys a cult like following of americas saviour George W. by the evangelical sect. . inflamatory and a manipulation of the truth which is that the VAST majority of Christians DONT support violence or these warmongering regimes.. im just saying the same applies to islam as well

Interesting point Jay

So, Jay, what do you propose should be done against ISIS?

Should ISIS be left alone until they have established a Caliphate?
Or should they be stopped?
If you don’t want to do something now, when should something be done?
After Iraq falls?
After Syria falls?
After Lebanon falls?
After Turkey falls?
When they attack Israel?
After they start terrorism in Europe? Oops, too late for that.
After they restart terrorism in America?

The US (with or without allies) is the only force capable of stopping ISIS.

Iran can and will get involved, but I don’t believe Iran has the capability.

Finally, let me state there only two ways to win a war and unilateral declaration of a win and walk away is NOT one of them.

honestly as much as i hate to say it, i dont think it matters what we think. This is what the powers that be want… they need the population kept in a state of fear so we have to rely on the state to “save and protect us”. isis, Sadam, Osama, all of these are results of western interference. While i was studying polysci, law, and philosophy in university i had done thousands of hours of research into the history of political systems, legal systems, and ultimately “fundamental human rights”. I had hoped to be convinced that we live in a just society whereby fundamental rights really do exist, and everyone actually has a true ability for self determination (and equal opportunity to make the best of their lives). I got so fed up with politics because no matter what i or anyone else did, nothing of any value would change in the political / legal arenas… and continuosly fighting these systems to little avail just simply wasnt making my life better.. i was always p#@sed off all the time at what was happening nationally and abroad. The ULTIMATE conclusion that i ve come to is one that if wanted could be achieved if we wanted it to be (if it ever is, Im sure it will be one forced on us by nature and an overburdened planet). That conclusion is simply this:
We continue to live under an economic system which requires GROWTH to sustain itself. Without growth everything crashes. And this will happen once again in yhe coming years. The system will collapse, millions (maybe even billions) will die. Ownership and asset value will readjust, and we begin the process all over again.. this will be taken even further down the path if we reach the ability for extending resource periphery beyond our planet.
But there is one solution. One which would end MOST of the largest problems we face in trying to create a better, sustainable society which values above all fundamental rights and the need to nurture peoples ability for creative inquiry and expression.
SOLUTION: DESIGN AN ECONOMIC SYSTEM WHICH DOES NOT REQUIRE GROWTH TO SUSTAIN ITSELF.

How about going back to an economic system with incentives?

FREE MARKETS……….no Large govt…….no large corporation..

.Instead….Small LOCAL govt., and SMALL BUSINESSes…………will cure 90% of our problems………

for sure! but thats only part of it.. elimination of debt based currency has to be inlcuded. All current models require growth to sustain. this is why what i call “manufactured obsolescents” exists. We KNOW how to make light bulbs that last 100 years, cars that dont fall apart after X-amount of miles, etc. but if these companies HAVE TO GROW, why would they produce products that don’t fall apart and require replacing down the line? Because the economy, the gdp needs to GROW. We need to create jobs, not eliminate them… this has always been the thinking..
just take one example though. I have to do 1-2 hours of work per year to cover my lightbulb supply: buying new ones, pay municiple tax so waste management can collect my old ones as well as waste packaging from new ones. if i buy bulbs that last 100 years, i eliminate a portion of my need for waste management, labour needed to produce new bulbs, BUT I also have 1 – 2 hours each year to do what i want and not work. Thats 1 -2 hours someone else can get to work each year.
This is just one simple example but when applied on a broad scale would solve i believe a vast majority of the issues we face economically and as a society

as far as isis goes, they’re just a symptom(certainly a horrific one) but ultimately the problem.

We will have the lopportunity to create a new society after the collapse, but that does not answer the question of what to jihadism now.

Remember the leader of ISIS has repeated his threat “See you in New York”

jihadism exists because of foreign atrocitoes commited in the middle east. The best solution which would turn the whole world against islam exttemists would be to hold those in the west account for those atrocities. My suggestion would be to place the Bushes, and their regimes (primarily Cheney, Rumsfeld, modt certainky Wolfowitz, et al on trial at the icc. This woulf be an intelligent and crucial display of accountability in regards to international (and especially u.s.) law. Yhe present jihadists most likely would want to continue, but with justicebck on the wests side, and measures having been taken to prevent creating future jihadists, the symptoms will fade. But this wont happen, and I think you re right in that a new 911 is mosy likely around the corner… even before obama was elected, i warned my biggest fear for the west was the 2012 / 2016 election of jeb bush… if he gets in, im moving to Perth. anywhere the hell away from North America…

I am going to end my side of the dialog, because IF anyone thinks that Jihadism is caused by US intervention they, in my opinion, do not understand the problem.

To think that if the US withdraws entirely then the US will not be attack is extreme naivety. It only allows the Jihadist to gain strength.
There are two ways to end a war.
1. Eliminate the enemy.
2. Make the enemy understand that any attack will cause a retaliation so painful, that the attack does not happen.

Unilateral withdrawal is always taken as A SIGN OF WEAKNESS AND INVITES FURTHER ATTACK.

I have to agree that they do not understand.

and how did that work out for america in vietnam. withdrawn. attacks from vietnam since?
how bout Russian withdrawal from Afghan?
as others have stated here (and i agree) be the example you wish to see in the world. violence only begets more violence and imo force is the weapon of the week

I would say that is normally true, but some of those folks do not understand that in my opinion!

(weak)

Jay, Russia is still suffering Jihadist attacks.

Vietnam is aligned with China and would not want to upset China by attacking the US.

And Russia defends its borders

cfs just to state clearly obviously noone in their right mind supports this isis group, and whoever the next bogeyman will be. BUT, this is absolutely the exact same nonesense as happened with Osama, with Sadam, etc
If i was a member of a U.S. military family i would be LOSING IT right now on the U.S. gov.
ONCE AGAIN, America has trained AND armed a group of would be terrorists. They armed and backed Saddam all through his various atrocities etc, no problem whatsoever until he stopped being their obedient lap dog. They trained and armed the wonderful Taliban freedom fighters (back when they were ousting Russia they weren’t called terrorists either). Why on earth would ANY decent American (or other) put themselves or their family at risk to play a role in this nonesense for 1 more day is entirely beyond me…
Sure ISIS are a bunch of terrorists. Look who trained them

If we all agree that People behave and act according to their belief systems, then the idea that somehow all religions are equal is totally false. For example, the Christian God is the God that sacrifices himself for the love of mankind. On the other hand, the God of Islam is the God of the Sword. Two different Gods with totally different messages: Christianity teaches the use of force only as a last resort for self defense. Islam teaches the use of force to convert and submit to the Koranic laws. Christianity teaches to forgive and love ; Islam teaches to stone and kill: the adulterous woman is one example. Again neither have the same theological teaching, nor the same God: one is enlightened the other is retarded…

Thank you C

Islam Creates Monsters Says Psychologist:
http://guardianlv.com/2014/05/islam-creates-monsters-says-psychologist/

i have to comment on c’s remark here Al, i agree people act according to their beliefs, regardless of what isis members say they believe, it is NOT islam. I worked briefly with a manwho was Muslim. I don’t know if ive ever met an individual as humble as this man. He was dedicated to his religion and came to work everyday filled with the most amazing positivity, you couldn’t help but be in a better mood being around this guy. His entire family, wife, several kids, his brother were all slaughtered years before. How anyone could go through what this man did yet still remain devoted to his religion, completely free of anger or vengence for what had happened.. amazing. And his outlook was the simple truth that carrying hate could never make his life better. I ve met too many decent people of islamic faith (as i have Christian, Jewishvor other) to be closeminded enough to blame islam for atrocities commited falsely in the name of it.

Jay, I do you know it is NOT Islam? The example that you give to us is the example of a man who is either ignorant of his faith or that he deliberately chooses to ignore the teachings of his religion that are contrary to his conscience. Repeating a few selected verses here and there is no proof of knowing. Believe it or not, you would be surprised by the amount of so called moderate Muslims who never read the Koran, as the same is true for a majority of Christians who go to church every Sunday and never bothered to read any of the four gospels in their entirety… So, there is no such think as a moderate Koran, even though there are many contemporary translations nowadays that have been altered and/or diluted to appease the ignorant or to dissimulate the truth from the original ancient texts and its traditional sources. ISIS actions are the expression of the Koranic laws in their pure traditional form.

I did not realize that. Thanks Jay

People are completely confused as to what Christianity is , IT IS TO BE CALLED….TO BE LIKE CHRIST……..which is LOVE.

One could say that he kind of did, Jerry.

But than again I am an unwise old owl!

If we all agree that People behave and act according to their belief systems, then the idea that somehow all religions are equal is totally false. For example, the Christian God is the God that sacrifices himself for the love of mankind. On the other hand, the God of Islam is the God of the Sword. Two different Gods with totally different messages: Christianity teaches the use of force only as a last resort for self defense. Islam teaches the use of force to convert and submit to the Koranic laws. Christianity teaches to forgive and love ; Islam teaches to stone and kill: the adulterous woman is one example. Again neither have the same theological teaching, nor the same God: one is enlightened the other is retarded…

Islam Creates Monsters Says Psychologist:
http://guardianlv.com/2014/05/islam-creates-monsters-says-psychologist/

Are you talking about committed by members of a group that are peaceful?

I do agree with you. I too appreciate your views Jay!

the American Constitution is dead… Canada’s cheap attempt at one (charter of rights and freedoms) is also meaningless as majority of charter claims in the legal system have been from corporations, not natural persons.
Its amazing to look at this whole process of shift from democracy to oligarchy… almost play by play as described 2300 years ago in Plato’s “republic”! Seems even politics and personal freedoms follow a supercycle of sorts

Does the constitution say the president has dictatorial powers? Does it say he is royalty? If so then your many complaints are misplaced.

Bird, It is hard to reply to you when somehow you manage to post, but no “reply to this comment” appears after your post.