If we get a capitulation phase in gold this is what Gary thinks it will look like
Click download link to listen on this device: Download Show
Gary gives us his comments on gold and the conventional markets today and also describes what he considers a capitulation phase if it is to happen in gold.
AAAAAAAA GARY ????? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I
“THE MOTHER OF ALL BULL MARKETS IN GOLD!” Exclaimation point mine!
WOW!
You know how to sell newspapers. Citizen Kane couldn’t have done it any better!
Ok – now…
The mother of all bull markets in gold…Why?
Play by play analysis in no good enough.
As far as a bottom goes…
The bottom could be any price at any time.
It could be now, it could be $1000, it could be $500.
No one knows. Repeat no one knows.
As far as a rally after the bottom…
No one knows.
It could happen. It might not.
When I start hearing ROCKET LAUNCHES I check my wallet.
Just let things unfold how they are going to unfold.
Caveat: You all have more experience than I and are smarter than I.
Having said that caveat, I agree with you James. It seems to me that there are too strong powers that have a stake in making sure the exchange rate of gold does NOT go to the moon. Why would the manipulators stop manipulating, and/or why would they stop being successful at manipulating? That is, I am assuming that most feel it might be the manipulations that knocked gold into a bear market these last 3 years despite the so-called strong fundamentals. I quite frankly have no idea how low gold will go or when it will stop declining, nor am I sure how many years before it recovers $1900 if ever.
Why?
Trillions and trillions of global QE…..
From Kitco — and worth six minutes:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LEi4UcHcZMk&feature=em-uploademail
A good video Thanks !
It would be great to have Daniela Cambone as a guest on KER.
Global wages are falling dude. That is massive deflation.
Hmm, we will see. QE did nothing for gold these last 3 years.
I am starting to like the “Capitulation Phase” terminology! I hope it will play out that way. I would love to see gold going to the sky as a result 🙂
dont count on it – going to the sky that is
there is absolutely no reason for gold to go up,
before or after capitulation
if gold capitulates it could just mean it is now in a lower range
just like last aprils crash, which was supposed to be capitulation
how many times is gold going to capitulate
if you want to go to the sky jump aboard apple and facebook
a slew of earnings to report tonight and tomorrow, this will really tell just how this economy is really doing
so far apple and facebook smash earnings
no need for gold, stocks to the sky
James,
Sell your metals and get into APPLE and Facebook and Amazon and…..for criminy sakes!!….:)
Ditto mark……
once again the experts go it all wrong with apple.
they were all so smart thinking they knew more than tim cook
as usual they ate crow.
these experts, all experts, are just pundits – they no nothing
they like to hear themselved sound clever
than they get it all wrong
same with gold
If you make controversial predictions you can get more listeners to the show. The only problem in my opinion is you start losing credibility if the prediction doesn’t pan out.
exactly.
just like at a race track. you have ten pundits. nine tout the favorite.
one touts a longshot. if the favorite wins no one gives a second thought to the one pundit to went with a long shot. if the long shot wins the one pundit gets all the attention.
these are all tout strategies. there are a plenty of them
There are two possible scenarios that have been discussed, and personally I would not be surprised if the first scenario plays out as Mr Savage as described. Why? because if I was a market manipulator with deep pockets, this is how I would profit the most… The question is, can they do it?
pari mutual, french for amongst ourselves
I think Goldman came out with the 1050 forecast than soon thereafter I believe one of the touts figured out a way to fit his technical charting analysis to come up with a 1050 forecast as well.
If we get this capitulation whats to keep “the boyz” from busting the price down? Or wiil the lower prices be a place where everyone take a advantage to buy at these low prices like last April? I agree with James the lesser—who knows? I think JP Morgan knows!!!!
As long as the boyz have the paper market in their control, whats to change the way they have been handling the market any different?
Picking April for a capitulation is a great idea after all it happened last April so it must happen this April. Throw in Goldman’s forecast of 1050 and all of sudden you got a capitulation of 1050 in April of course.
CAPITULATION….ewwww scary!
Question Gary, since Golds top at $1900+ one could say looking at the daily chart that gold has produced 13 purges, pukes, run for the hills, capitulation events…what makes you so certain that the next puke is it, be it next week of this summer, whats to say its just another shot lower to yet another lower trading zone…$1200-$1000…then in 2015…another capitulation creating $1000-$800….this capitulation has been unfolding several times since Sept 2011 why is this going to be THE ONE that creates the Mother of all Gold bottoms, sell the wife kids, dog, leverage the house and get LOOOOOONG…?
None of those fit the classic “capitulation” definition. Listen to the interview again. What I’m looking for when I say capitulation isn’t a 3 day crash like last year. It is a 2-3 week decline with very few rally days that finally causes everyone to lose all hope. I gave the example of the stock market in Feb./Mar. 2009 as a perfect example.
It’s very clear just by reading the posts here we aren’t even vaguely close to that kind of sentiment yet. Usually it coincides with multiple bankruptcies. Also something we haven’t seen yet.
Not to mention the final report was just completed which shows the gold price has been manipulated for the last 10 years on the london fix.
however it was MANIPULATED UP!
What Gary says makes sense to me. Trillions in QE, gold should eventually go up in terms of paper currency.
Stocks at all time highs, margin too (in absolute terms anyway). Gold already in 2.5 year bear. Asia is buying gold. And James, you say there’s no reason for it to go up, and it might go down to $500 (way below production cost)?? I have no idea where you are coming from.
Neither do I…..GH…neither do I..but it seems James has much more fiat currency than I do and he is much better looking too….ha!….:)…James you are a smart dude..just funnin with ya!
GH – I will try to tell you where I am coming from.
I have been in this gold (and silver) market for 15 years. Started to accumilate when gold was as low as $270 and silver $4. For 15 years I have added physical as able. I have researched, studied, analyzed, meditated on, and just about ate, slept and dreamt gold and silver.
I have experienced every gut wrenching correction, I applauded every milestone achieved.
When I started buying gold I knew nothing about gold, and markets for that matter.
15 years later Ive earned a master degree in the subject, the school of hard knocks.
Ive been around the block once or twice and I think Ive earned the right to speak on the subject.
so for starters…gold so often does exactly the opposite of what you think it is going to do. Ive seen that time and time again.
So often just when you thought it would break up it reverses on a dime.
likewise just when you thought it was dead it comes back
gold is a very very hard investment to figure out.
thats why i bought and held.
if you look at the history these last 15 years one thing is becoming more and more clear. that is…anything is possible. any price.
is $500 a realistic call, on the surface you would say no, it looks impossible.
but this market is so beat up and so beaten down and so distorted anything is possible.
the fact that it costs more to get an ounce of gold out of the gorund wont matter.
i have to honestly say my gut has been incredibly accurate throughout these 15 years.
what dod my gut tell me?
first it told me to buy in 1999 thanks to nick gurino.
then it told me that gold was going up as sure as im standing here
all the way to $1900 i never sold, never gave in
then after the third failed attempt to take ot $1800 my gut told me something is different about this correction.
then my gut told me we saw the parabolic blowoffs.
so far my gut has been spot on.
my emotions not so
right now my gut is telling me this just aint coming back
i myself have been guilty of hope.
i myself have been fooled by every short term bounce.
all i know is smarter guys then me have no idea where gold is going.
so with all due respect to gary, doc and rick, who are all very smart and very informative – you just cant know what you cant know
i believe gold was a momentum play that built up steam and then simply got too high and reversed. now the momentum is to the downside, and it will be until for whatever reason it changes again.
i have no idea what will cause that change, when, or if at all
neither does anyone else if there truthful
for me personally i just have to wait
i will not sell in fear, i will not bail
i have no reason to
so i sit it out
but the truth is gold and silver are dead assets
im honest enough with myself to say that
dont count on manipulation or black swans either – that has shown gold could go in the opposite direction of what would be intuitive, there is goes again just like i said
germany wants its gold back – shouls be gold positive, instead its negative
cyprus – should be gold psitive, instead negative
the list goes on and on
dont bet on stocks either
at one point both gold and stocks went up together
at one point they went dow together
now they are opposite
if stocks continue to rise no one needs gold, for right or wrong
there was a time i would have begged people to buy gold
i would have defended it tio kingdom come
but after three years ive seen the other side
ive never seen a bear before until now
so i hold and i wait. but i dont expect.
i think that is the take away
Here is the problem James. A “LIVE” asset is asking for trouble. Because you will not be able to get out in time when it crashes….you will be looking for a bounce, but by then 50 to 70% of your money in “fiat currency” will be shredded.
Yes. I have no problem with the assertion that they are dead assets (gold especially). But that’s the point. In good times, go into productive stuff. In troubled times, conserve capital.
Interesting thoughts and experiences, many of which I can share. Agreed, intuition is of little value, in the short-term. But for it to be wrong long term…seems a bit like expecting the laws of nature to change. My message to myself is just don’t try too hard to time it, and don’t put all my eggs in one gold/silver/miningshares basket.
james you should write a book, Life and Times on an old GoldBugger…..interesting stuff
I know traders who have been professional traders from gold to wheat to stocks to oil to gas to futures and they all say the same thing, something changed in the last few years as a news event out of Japan would have the Yen react up, been that way for 40 years!! but it moves down….many of these guys feel the central banks of the world and their agents be it RBC, BNS, CITI, JPM, etc are all in the markets preventing the normal reaction to take hold….sounds nuts but nothing absolutely F-All makes any sense anymore…..bring back the bull markets of old!
I’m not an oldtimer, but that’s how it seems to me, and what I read from them. Seems to me the question is how long can they keep it up, and how bad will the consequences be for their actions. If they manage to do what they want, we’re all serfs, so might as well bet against ’em.
correction: I’m not an oldtimer, but that’s how it seems to me, and what I read from the oldtimers. Seems to me the question is how long can the central planners can keep it up, and how bad will the consequences be for their actions. If they manage to do what they want, we’re all serfs, so might as well bet against ‘em.
Sadly yes MAN ! GH !
NICE JAMES !
Do not hope and do not despair. Use only what you are prepared to lose, as it all could vanish into thin air.
We’re now close to shouting distance from the coming current bottom for gold. It should not be too long now.
I agree with Doc that this daily cycle should bottom either on the FOMC or the employment report next week. I’m not so sure that will be the final bottom though. If it is then we are in store for a very erratic summer with not much progress in either direction for several months. Personally I would rather get a final capitulation as it would launch a rocket shot off the low and we could finally get a strong trending move.
I find it absolutely ridiculous that the “pros” have been talking about lows and highs for the last 5 years or so and are perpetually wrong — “we have a low and will see a huge climb” (doesn’t happen and they change their tune) — “we have a high and we will see a huge sell off” (doesn’t happen and they change there tune — AND ON AND ON IT GOES. No disrespect to any of them, but I (being an absolute amateur) can do the EXACT SAME THING they are doing and be correct about as often as they are — who can’t be when you sit on both sides of the fence? That is all EVERY SINGLE “gold expert” is doing right now — they hold contrary views from one another and then change their views two weeks later (of course they will be right sometimes — wrong sometimes — as will every “pro”) — BUT AGAIN, I could do the EXACT SAME THING and be right as much (or more) than they are. It truly is pathetic that we continue to prop these people up.
bent,
FWIW I caught the exact bottom last summer. Exited at almost the exact top on Sept. 3. Got close to the bottom in Jan. Exited at the exact top on mar. 17 and have called this entire move down perfectly so far.
BTW the final move down into the daily cycle low is starting today. Watch silver here as a move below the Dec. low would likely mean gold will also get dragged below the Dec. low. I’m not expecting a final bottom until probably the employment report next Friday. Considering silver is only about 30 cents from breaking those lows this morning that’s going to be a tall order to hold on for the next 7 days.
Good call Gary. Nice work. I appreciate your views and agree (as does Doc) that it is silver we need to watch because there is no question it is leading the charge down right now. Hell, I would not be surprised if silver dropped another 30 cents by opening today, never mind waiting another 7 trading days.
…….and there she goes!!!
Just as I was posting this note Silver did a hard face-plant right off the high board and dropped to 18.95 as gold finally caught the winds down and is already off 14 bucks from yesterday. Whew! This will be a bloody day for metals as it is now shaping up. It is even harder to imagine Friday will offer any good hope of a bounce back.
Brace! Brace! Brace!
Hello Gary,
I appreciate your remarks. Please trust me when I say that I am NOT referring to anyone in particular. It just makes me chuckle when I tune in to talk radio (which is not very often anymore) and I hear the same folks from 5 years ago sounding the exact way they did back then — “we have hit a low at 1200, expect to see 1800 dollar gold by year end” — it doesn’t happen and I tune out again for another year — turn on the radio and once again, “we have hit a low at 1200, expect to see 1800 dollar gold by year end” — and vice versa. They miss their call and the markets reverse and suddenly their tune changes — “we have hit our high of 1200 dollar gold, expect to see a bottom at 1050 and then a sharp correction” — and on and on it goes. It is a GUESSING GAME for 99.9% of them, which is my point: I too can GUESS and be equally accurate if I make enough of them (reversing my views weekly). Let me show you:
Gold is at 1293.30 as we speak — my forecast is that in two weeks time we will see it touch 1268.40 and a correction will occur at that time, bring us back into the 1285 range … it is at this point that I would expect another short-term sell-off that will drop us to 1242, followed by a sharp rise to 1299 — if we can get past the 1307 point for 5 consecutive days, look for a jump to the next sticking point of 1326.
I have to say Gary that this breakdown in gold just a short time back is really bearish as supports gave way with little more than a sad little whimper. Stop triggering will be in force as the morning opens and the real carnage begins since the outlook now suggests we are heading towards 1200. I cannot imagine many wanting to hold on as 1300 is lost along with hopes that we might bounce back. So down she goes. No doubt you are correct that positioning well in advance of the FOMC next week is perhaps now underway. The bulls should be running for the hills because this animal has teeth again.
Bird,
This is turning out to be exactly what I was afraid would happen and a very aggressive decline would develop. We now have 7 down days in a row and gold is now entering the panic phase of the daily cycle decline. If gold hits $1240 by tomorrows close then sub 1200 is probably a given by the end of next week. And if this daily cycle tests sub 1200 then the next daily cycle is going to give us a capitulation phase to that 1050 level. Today and tomorrow will be important. Gold needs to hold 1260 by tomorrows close.
One has to admit silver is making a valiant effort to reverse all of the early losses.
Too funny Gary we posted a silver thought at the same time, lol
How do you interpret that reversal ? What do you project as a low on silver ( as in target 1050-1180 for Gold). Do you expect the Mother of all bounces for both metals?
What was Silvers Dec low?
Dec low was $18.72 but the June low was $18.17….
Anything less than $1290+ on golds Monthly chart next week continues the Bearish trend in place, trading short coverings along the way is the only bullish aspect since 2011
Ukraine is getting out of hand yet gold gets whacked and US stocks look for record highs….yup a normal as apple pie !@#$%!!
Silver is the one to watch as this am’s low @ $18.92 is where previous lows have been created between $18.72…$18.97…a low is in place or a bottom is about to fall out?..?..?
If Silver closes above $19.45 that would produce a very bullish looking candle….lets see the closing price obviously….but what a bounce off the matt!
Just like a Kangaroo.
Well that flushed out my gold short from $1355 watching gold regain $1285….100% cash and watching….hey about a close above $1300 and $20 that should create a nice long tail candle and a very quick bottom….rollercoaster yeeee haaawww
Nice show by “The Backstop Boyz” this morning. Remember my comment from a day or two ago about how the “smash jobs” are having less and less effect? We may have seen the last one this morning. “The Backstop Boyz” – and I continue to believe it’s China – were LAYING IN WAIT for the CrimNakes this morning
Well its all about the close and Fri close will be of BIG interest…..Silver was very impressive off its lows this am and it was nice to see the typical US$ reaction as it fell while the metals reversed…..normalcy….No Way!!!…lol
Whoa!!!!. that was a interesting turn around!!!?!?! Silver and gold moving up strong
About a ninety-seven-cent ( $.97 ) range in silver today. SO FAR.
I guess the banksters went to Home Depot to buy more paint for the pm charts and it got away from them.
Silver lease rates fell over last couple days and HGD, an inverse gold ETF dropped 5% yesterday so all this should have been foreseen.
Well if Silver closes above $19.90 today or Fri it will have closed above the upper resistance trend line off the March 16th…April 12th highs….= Bullish!….even a close above $19.60 gets it back inside its trading channel, once again!
Good obs. I don’t think this will be a prolonged bounce but a bounce none the less IMHO.
I would say the bears just got their arses smoked. I guess there was just too much dry tinder on the short side for the boyz to ignore and when opportunity knocked they lit a fire under gold and took everyone out of the game in massive blast. I wish I could say that was expected. Everyone will be on edge now.
I certainly didn’t expect this. Was there some kind of announcement out of the Ukraine? This is obviously a news driven event. If it holds and we get follow through tomorrow this would have the potential to abort the rest of the move down into the yearly cycle low.
I can’t find anything that would have whacked the $ and created this bullion action Gary…perhaps its just da boyz enjoying their game….scum!!
I did not see that coming either. Hmmm. Hey Gary…is it manipulation? Ha!
No news, Gary. At least I haven’t seen anything to which this could be attributed. It’s simply “The Backstop Boyz” stepping up to the plate just as I have observed them doing since last December. Take a close and careful look at each of these “smash jobs” since that time, and you’ll see what I mean. As a result, they’re having less and less effect because of this support that appears, from whomever is providing it. Whomever it is, it has “sovereign” written all over it, and “Sun Tzu” written all over it, so I’ll let you deduce whom that might be.
There was definitely some kind of news event because the stock market tanked at the same time.
Obama support for Japan. Forget Ukraine. This is about China.
That cinches it, then. We may be very close to the moment China announces some sort of “gold peg” for the Yuan.
“..this would have the potential to abort the rest of the move down into the yearly cycle low.”
That’s why I was asking that question a week or two ago about whether the yearly cycle low had ever arrived early, and what were the circumstances at the time if it had done so.
Well Dan on my Silver chart off the am lows it took out/regained 3 resistance areas, so far, $19.00….$19.23 and $19.60….a close above $19.60 heals a lot of wound in very short order and silver does put in flash lows and highs, blink, puke and you miss them
Quoted from Vortex;
“Governments are the greediest and dumbest, incompetent thieving cabals on the face of the earth. They will steal and confiscate everything of value before its all said and done. There will be nothing left unscathed.
PM investors had better be honing their collective skills and staying nimble in selling these miners instead of trying to figure out when to buy them a few years from now. The little guy has three may be five years to wade through this mining sector before big brother reaches in for the feasting.”
The real next leg up may not include the miners as much because this attitude, of which I agree, will permeate through the industry.
“Burning matches”… Doug Casey.
Thanks Al and gang for a great site to discuss and exchange thoughts. (;-)
Maybe a big pm bull saw this and ran their stops up and forced the immediate selling of these puts. Manipulation goes both ways, sometimes in our favour IMHO.
http://www.kitco.com/news/2014-04-24/KitcoNewsMarketNuggets-April-24.html
I have some stink bids that AREN”T going to get filled at this rate.
Just for fun … I’m calling for gold $1,089.50 before Dec 31/15
I’m $1090 bid……………..lol
with any luck at all, we’ll get some Gold Astronauts sent off to the moon with a $1,799 spike in the meantime .. and I hope they stay there.
I hear there are some nice mile-high crystal cathedrals for anyone who wants to stay there. Food & water are optional as long as you gots gold. booyah!
Today is Gold and Silver option expiry day….well haven’t we all seen this action before!
If gold closes above $1295 it opens up $1307-10 and that’s going to be a real key area to see the follow thru….suck in new longs trading above $1300 then pull the bids out or look to regain $1320 50dma
Did you guys see that Kiev moved armoured infantry to Slavyansk?
That might be the news event.
Interesting PMs got hammered just before the move (looks like) then bounce up from there.
That news on the military’s as long before the bounce back up
exactly goldman, might have been the news to cause the bounce up.
The smash could have been timed, so gold goes up from a lower point, the object might have been to keep it under $1300.
AAAAA ! CAPITULATION AAAAAA ! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86g4_w4j3jU